ML19246A558
| ML19246A558 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 06/14/1979 |
| From: | Gilinsky V, Hendrie J, Kennedy R NRC COMMISSION (OCM) |
| To: | |
| References | |
| REF-10CFR9.7 NUDOCS 7907030354 | |
| Download: ML19246A558 (24) | |
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NUCLE AR REGULATORY COMMISSION 69
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.PUBLIC MEETING r
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g,5j}za DISCUSSION OF POWER NEEDS Or, g.
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Place Washington, D.
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Thursdaf, 14' June 1979 Pages 1 - 23 Ts.c no n. :
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(::: :c 370 ACE. FEDERAI REPORTERS, @g 7
O'ficialRepor:ers I&
. tit Ncrth Cecitcl Street Wcshirgten. D.C. CC01 n7
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NATIONWIDE CCVERAGE. D AILY
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CR5360 1
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DISCLAIMER This is an unofficial transcript of a meeting of the United States Nuclear Regulatory Co= issicn held on Thursday, 14. June 1979 in the Commissions's offices at 1717 H Street, N. W.,
Washington, D. C.
The meeting was open to public attendance and observation.
This transcript has not been reviewed, corrected, or edited, and it may contain inaccuracies.
(/)
The transcript is intended soleiv. for ceneral informational curt.oses.
As crovided bv. 10 CFR 9.103, it is not part of the formal or informal record of decision of the matters discussad.
Expressions
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determinations or beliefs.
No pleading or other paper nay ce filed with the Cc=d.ssion in any proceeding as the result of or addressed s '-.'. e
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UNITED STATES OF AMERICA j
i NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION 2
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l DUBLIC MEETING j
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DISCUSSION OF POWER NEEDS Or i
i 6t PENNSYLVANIA-NEW JERSEY-MARYLAD t
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t Room 1130 l
1717 H Street, N. W.
9 Washington, D.
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j Thursday, 14 June 1979 l
11
,1 The Ccenission.. ret, pursuant to notice, at 2;45 p.m.
i 12 i BEFORE:
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DR. JOSEPH M.
HENDRIE, Chairman 14
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VICTOR GILINSKY, Commissione.
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RICHARD T. KENNEDY, Commiaaioner 16,
PETER A. 3RADFOPS, Cc=missioner 17 JOHN F. AHEARNE, Ccemissioner 13 '
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Messrs. Haines, Cc=c, Fowlkes, Heyle, and Bickwit.
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2 CHAIF31AN HENDRIE :
If we could ccme to order, the l
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Ccmmissicn meets this afternoon to hear ciscussicns of the i
l 4 i, ocwer needs in the Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland area; and, 5!
in sort of two relays I think, we will start out and h ave a i.
t 6-brief statement from Bill Lindsay frcm the Federal Enere.v.
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7' Regulatory Commission.
8i And let's see, Frank, are you going to -- have you 9
cet a thing you' d like to s ay to us ?
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MR. HAINES:
Well, sir, we have written up the
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t 11 answers to the questiens that we think you' re interested in.
12 '
We can either give them to you or speak to it.
13 CHAIRMAN HENDRIE:
Well, why don ' t we see if I
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14 Ccamissioners have questions, and othe rs -- let 's see, Frank l
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15,
and Bill -- ce haps we can introduce the gentlemen at the i
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MR. HAINES:
Yes, sir, this is Anthony Ccmo, who l
13 !
works in the Power Supply Planning Sranch with me.
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s 20 i the Special Investigation 3 ranch.
21 C9AIFS.N HENDRIE :
Glad to have you with us, Ed.
". 1, Whv. dcn' t v. cu go ahead.
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- i 23 l MR. LINOSAY
"' hank you, Mr. Ch airman.
1 2.1 It's my understanding that cur concern he re today s Federai Aeoorters, Inc. l 25 is with generating capacity within the PJM pcci, and that 70' l l s
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would like to hear a little bit about the PJM pool, which is l
2 the largest power pool in the United States.
Its members l
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consist of 10 investor-owned signatories -- cr eight, if you j
l 4
count the two GPU members as one, plus four associate 1
5' members, co-ops in public systems.
6 It cove rs a wide gecgraphic area, including three-7 fourths of Pennsylvania, most of New Jersey, a large part of s'
Mary l and, and small parts of -- well, all of the Districe of l
9, Columbia, and a small cart of Vircinia, j
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l 10 l It's load in 19 79 -- it's peak load is estimated to I
11 be 3 3,320 megawatts.
It member systems serve over 7 million I
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custome rs, a population -- an area having a population of l,
l 13 over 21 million people.
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14 It's a centrally dispatched pcwer pool; planning for l 15 I the cool is well coordinated amenc the members of the neol i
i 16,
It is heavilv. interconnected with sv. stems around the pool, I
11 including the Allegheny Power System and New York Pcwer Pcci, 7
18 !
Virginia Electric and Pcwer Ccmpany, Cleveland Electric I
i 19 Illuminatin: Ccan anv.
1 i
the, as as c:_ a pcwer-pco_,ing agree-c 20 cperates upcn i
21 ment, which is a contract accng the signatories cc the pool, 1
22 pl which sets f orth the mutual unders tandin=s ancng them for the I
d, 23 !
structure and cperation of the pocl.
- i If 24 'j The pccl ccnsists cf a series of ccmmittees-a
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4 25 i man agenent cc=mittee, a planning ccmmictee, a plarni,r and _
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en c. inee rinc. cc=mittee, an oc. erating cc=mittee, all of which i
2 include in it representaticn frcm the varicus memberships,
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The pcoling agreement establishes principles of I
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4 coordinating planning and operaticn, establishes generating 5
capacity cbligation and transmission obligations, establishes I
i 6i rates for capacity de:_1clencies and rates :or tn.e interchange of enercv. within the pool and provides for arrangements with 7j I
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ncn-pool members, PJM versus others.
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It has a series of intercennection agreements,
10 interchange agreements with all of the major systems with 11 which it is interconnected which I mentioned.
12 The pooling agreement itself is regulated by the 13 Federal Ene rgy Regulatory Commission.
We treat the pooling J
14 agreement as a rate schedule, such that we regulate not only s
15 the rates, but all of the te rms and conditions of the e. colinc_
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agreement.
17-The rates, howeve r, that are charged by the individu-
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about 5.7 percent hydro.
Frc= the standpcint of electrical energy generation l
2 orojected for 1979, nuclear represents about 2 3-1/2 ce rcent,
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f 4l, coal rec. resents 49.3 percent, cil roughly 20 c.ercent, and the i
rest, natural gas and hydro.
5 The ocol encaces, as I mentioned, in interchange 6
I with other svstems that surround it -- it serves as the link 7
between the Northeast -- that is, New York and New England --
8:
and the rest of the United States.
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In order for power to cass thrcugh there, cass from l
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I 11 New England and New York to the rest of the United States, it nust c.o through PJM unless it can c. ass through Canada.
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Much of the interchange that's going en at the
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i present time is in the form of economy energy, purchases on t' e,
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cart of the PJM pool from svstems to the west that generate f
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with coal, which has the ef fect of displacing oil fire genera-16
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l,e tien on the PJM system.
I C-enerally those transactions take place en a spli:
18 3 1
19 s avings basis.
The de cremental cost of PJM -- cos as cc= pared w:.th the incremental ccst of the ccal generator and the coal 20 ;
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generator charges it's cwn cost,
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3g install ca aci v, af ter s chedule and maintenance, for cra -* 's z
the summer cf 1979, is ac. e. rcximate lv. 41,450 megawa: s --
z.
a t E?ceral Atporters, if5C. l ue 41,457 megawatts.
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7 1. o-1, The projected load for the summer of '79 is 33,320 l
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megawatts, so that the installed reserve is 8137 megawatts, or I
3 percent res e rve d -- th at is, percent reserved, as cc= pared i
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with projected peak load of 24.4 percent.
That's without l
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5' Salem No.
2.
It is also without TM i and 2, and without l
6l Lergen No. 1, without Eddystone No. 1 -- and, as
- said, i
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i 7j without Salem No.
2,
's deducted from 200 megawatts of i
e, schedule maintenance i
9f The Salem, in the reserve percentage, would go to l
l 10 i 27.8 percent.
The required reserve on the PJM system is j
i 11 a number which is calculated upon the basis of lead probabili i{
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12 l ty studies.
Ind as I understand it, the pcol's calculations, l
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13 based upon loss-of-load prchability of cne day in 10 ye ars,
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14 l is 25.5 percent.
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i 15 i If you accept that as an appropriate re se rve for l
16 the pool, then it's apparant that the reserves that the pool 17 has for 1979 are certainly in the general crder of magnitude IS 'I of that percentage, s e th at the prchler her
-- the absence of l
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cae day in 10-vear c. robability es timate.
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24 MR. LIN C.c; Y :
1s Beaver Valley in?
Eeaver 7 alley e F eceral A eocr
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25 is part of the Duquesne; it's not part of P;M.
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CCMMISSIONER AHEARNE :
Okay.
I 2
MR. LINDSA Y :
The nu-bers for the summer of 1980 that, r
i 3i I have are not greatly different frem percent rese rve s, are f
i not greatly dif ferent frcm those of 1979, so there's a general l 4l l
5, proposition, it seems to me, it is fair to say the prcblem I
6; with Salem No. 2 is not so much a reliability problem as it is I
7 a problem of econcmics, a problem of the loss of generatien, i
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3l whicn is exceeding the low-cest generation.
This is an are a i
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that I believe E' rank Haines will discuss in scme detail.
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10 CHAIPl1A'I HENDRIE :
Thank you.
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i 11 COMMISSIONER AHEAPl:E :
Thank v.ou, Bill.
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12 CCMMISSIONER GILINSKY:
Thank you.
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13 CHAIPlGN HENDRIE :
Would you go back and tell me
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14 l again -- I missed a number.
What is present installed i
e 15 generating capacity in the pool?
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16 MR. LINDSA f :
The present installed generating 17 '
capacity, if you -- well, it's 45,0 4 7 megawatts.
4 1.:
If you subtract cut TM 1 and 2, 1556 megawatts, 19 i Sergen Sc.
1, 2 8 7 ;Eddys tone No.1, 332; and Saler No.
2, 1115 20
-- my nu~ler included S alem -- ycu get an cpe rab le, installed i
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capacity o f 41,6 5 7.
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CHAIRMAN HENDRIE:
Thank you,
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Okay, let's see -- Frank, you supplied us with l
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a sheet?
4l MR. HAINES-Yes, sir.
We addressed three questionsJ I
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one of which Mr. Lindsav has covered, the smallest cart
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6' it is the reserved margins.
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i 7L Two points we would like to cover are, one, our best i
I estimate based on the data available to us on the reolacement 8'
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costs of the energy, and we have calculated them for the i
l jo j months of September, October, and November.
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We have done this by =ckinc. assu=c.tions for the i
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i 12 heat rate, the capacity, and the fuel costs for Salem 2 and 1
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1, frcm averace land values for PJM -- would give us the replace
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14 ment costs of the oil that would be otherwisa burned --
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actually the system costs, which in this case 's oil.
And i
i 16 l these are cucted en
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calculaticns we have done at earlier times en the PJM and other!
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3l We observed that these nurlers have to be found cut i
4i for this situation, because we have TM 1 and 2 dcwn.
Therefore'>
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5' cur estimate for the costs of Septerier, October, November are 4,
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respective ly $ 4 41,0 0 0 per day for Septerter, 498,000 for I
7i Octche r, and 46 8,-
for Noverter.
This is caused by the load I
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8' variaticN and the small amount of changes in capacity.
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The other point that we would like to make is the l
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replacement, the source of the reclacement energy.
Our best 1
t 11 estimate, both frcm examininc. the cac.acity that 's cn this l
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system and which is confirmed by what PJM is telling us, is i
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-- that it is oil burned, and we believe that it will be I
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37,00 0 barrels c. er day.
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15 We also -- dust to add a little background to this - '
j 16 l locked up the 20 largest cil deliveries to electric utilities 17 in the United States and obse rved that of those 20, five of I
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22 1 they would use their excess cil capacity.
-s that correct?
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I is already exporting -- the system is using as much coal as 4
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it can already.
Therefore, the replacement would be oil.
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4 nummers, th at the replacement capacity. thev have is cil.
5l My question is:
Is it your assumption, rather than l
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importing coal-generated electricity, that they would instead q i
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us2 their own excess oil capacity?
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8' MR. HAINES:
We would expect them to use the i
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econcmic capacity.
Our understanding is that's an oil burne :
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In other words, if there is coal available, it is ccminc into i 11 the system.
It would continue.
We understand the system to I
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be cperating en economics ; and en ecencmics, it's calculating i
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13 oil as replacement.
If there's coal that's cheaper that's I
1 14 available to the system, we anticipate that it will continue 15 l to ccme in, that it is an ecencaic system.
That's our I
16 unde rs tan ding.
17 Cur Valley Fcrge cperaticn would suggest thac this 18,
is the case.
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I dcn't mean to cuibble with you, i
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5, is coal generated frca outside the system.
l 6
MR. HAIMES:
We would not think that :.s availa'31e 4
1 i
71 base load.
i iaj MR. LINDSA Y :
They would continue to bring in i
I' 9
orettv. much what they bring in new.
This stuff would replace i
I i
10 oil j ust as -- j ust replace adc,a.tienal oil :.1re generaticn, in, j
11 l addition to what the coal is already displacing.
i i
12 1 Cnderstand, they' re cnly bringing in coal-fired l
l 1
i 13 c.ene raticn of mav. be what -- 14, 1500 megawatts? -- which i,
14 {I i
ac.c arentiv. is a verv. hic.h ce rce n tac., e o f wh at is possible for 15 '
them to bring in economically.
That is, the re are ccnstraint; t
16 i en the transm_.n4.cn.
There are constraints un what's available 1
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Any larce ancunts?
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25 M r.. HA'NES:
We've locked as far '.'est as Cc= cnwea'th e
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Edison, and we have asked,for different purpcses, what coal l
2 is available and what they can do with coal; and whac. w find 1
l t
3{
out is the coal that's available when people don ' t neec it --
{
4 in other words, the coal is base loaded, and f they want to 5,
execrt, thev' re goinc to try to trade to ce: somebodv -else 's 1
6' coal when the load is dcwn.
That's sort of the case all the i
l 7'
way across the Mississippi River, a!
C05SiISSICNER BRADFORD :
How did you decide 70 percent:
i 1
l 9
was the right capacitv. factor?
t l
10 MR. HAINES:
We feel that that is a croc.er tarc.et f
~
11 for Salem 2.
l 12 '
COBS 1ISSICNER BRADFORD:
For any unit in its first l
l i
13 month's operation?
I
(
14 MR. HAINES:
When the sv. stem is up and running?
I 15 '
That is the numcer that we would use, 70 percent.
I i
16 CCMMISSIONER B R.L.DFORD :
Right frcm day cne?
I 17
- MR. HAINES:
No, we wouldn't think that day cne is la 1 Septenber or October necess arily.
That we're saying is in 1
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i ol COMMISSIONER 3RADFORD :
Do vou know whether, for i
3 nuclear units of this size, during their first six months of i
l 4
operation, 70 percent is the average?
5, MR. HAINES:
We would think that the unit -- first i
6>
six months of cperation would net be from the day it got a core load.
We would think at some point it comes en-line; we 7
I would think the core load is down -- would bring the operation '
8; i
t 9 ',
into the fifth month, or the sixth month it would come up and i
i l
10 start to run.
i l
11 COMMISSICNER 3RADFORD :
You are using 70 percent I
i 1
12 :
he re for the months of September, October, November, i
l i
13 !
MR. HAINES:
We ' re s av. inc. if the o.cwer c.lant -- if j
I i
14 the operators of the power plant feel that it can be brought l
i i
13,
up and put en-line for the month that it runs, or for whatever 1
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15 ji 7 I l MR. HAINES:
We would think that a new power plant i
i would be brouc.ht dcwn and come uo..
t, 3i COMMISSICNER BRADFORD:
S o th at 70 percent wouldn't l
l 4j in f act be a monthly capacity f actor?
i I
5 MR. HAINES:
I don't know that I want to say what a I
6
=cnthly capacity f actor is.
t I
7l COMMISSICNER BRADFORD-But it sounds as though j
t I
8, 70 percent is the number vcu are using for the days when it's l
t 4
9 workinc.
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MR. HAINES:
That is right.
i i
11 '
COMMISSIONER 3RADFORD :
And so the monthly fic.ure
(
i 12 :
could only be lower than 70.
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13 MR. HAINES:
If it ran more than 70 percent during l
14,
some part of the month, we would just assume it's an average l
l h
I.c 70 c.ercent.
It was an assumpticn on our part.
Ne obse rve d I,l 1
16 h that it's about 4-7/10 cents for the nuclear, and the cheapest i
-l 1/,i alternative is 29 cents, so that there's a great difference in l
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1 i numbers a lot, wouldn't it?
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2 MR. HAINES:
Yes, it would.
i 3'
COMMISSIGNER BRADFORD :
Have you made any calcula-i I
tion to assume, in the way the rate setting normally works, 4l i
5 when the plant ccces into operaticn, that will be the first i
6 time it goes in the rate ba.se -- that is, at the mcment the l
i, 7j customers aren't paying the capacity costs?
i i
ai MR. HAINES:
We have not addressed the issue of i
i i
I 9'
rates at all.
I i
10 I CCMMISSICNER BRADFORD :
So that these figures --
i I.
i l
MR. LINDSAY:
I can tell you a little bit about i
11 l l,
l that.
The two crincieal cwners of this clant are Public 1
12 i
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1 r
g 13 Service Electric and Gas, located in New Jersey, and Philadel- '
14 phia Electric, located in Pennsylvania.
15 '
We checked with the state cc=missicns of those two 1
16 l states, and my understanding is that Pennsylvania doesn't have 17 any cf this in the rate base, but New Jersey does.
So presun-
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Rz %4/Q op h"M nd t6 MR. LINDSAY :
Whateve r thac may be.
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17 CR 5360
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CC.vMISSICNER 3RADFORD:
But then at least as to J-1 Pennsv. lvania, it sounds as though these savings are 441, 498, i
l
,I and 468.
You would need to subtract from that the capital 1
I costs that would then ccme into the rate base, t
4
.R.
LINDSAY:
It depends on whether ycu' re tal'<inc 5
i about savings to the rate payers, or the saving to the ccmpany.'
6, 7-The como. anv., of course -- it's a large savinc..
Tne rate c. av. e r I
i I'
8
-- it's not so large.
I If -- and depending upon how that eventually cets 9
i 10 handled, if it doesn't go in the rate base, they're coing to 11 ;
centinue to accumulate AFUDC so that the rates later cn would i
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12 !
higher; yes.
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13 MR. HAINES:
But the cest that we ' re cuoting is the f
s cost that drops of f the system when the cil plant droos off 14 li
-t ul 15 j the system.
That's where the savings is.
j Io 16 1 When the oil plant cc=es off the system, that cost is r
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But the capita'. cost of the r
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1 experience, with historical plants?
t 24 MR. HAINES:
I would think, on a month-by-month h
11 3'
b as is, once the plant is working and it has been turned over 4
for dispatch -- en a month-by-month basis, that would not be 5
a -- that wo 1d not be a particularly bad figure.
I t
i 6 -
What we would think would happen is on a yearly basis i
7!
there would be times when the plant would be brought back down, i, i
i l
8 and the overall annual capacity factor would stay up.
We would!
i 9
think it would stay up there, probably be as good a number as 1
i 10 any we would use.
1 I
11 i COMMISSIONER GILINSKY :
But does that reflect looking!
i I
12 at our ext. erience of start-uc. of clants, or is it simply an t
I i
j 13 } average figure that you' re f amiliar w' th :or capacity factors 14 of nuclear plants?
i.
..e have used a wide range o, nun.ce rs
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15 MR.
W
.u u r f
16,,
for capacity f actors in nuclear plants, dependinc. uc.on the 17.
time f ra e that we ' re addressinc.
Ncne of the thines we do, t
la,
as we gc back and look at the NRC gray bcck, when we talk u,.a
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l MR. HAINES:
I think is the nurcter.I would think 1l i.
2 l would be appropriate on a mentS-by-month basis, but I think there would be some months down the road where it's brought 3,
i 4l dcwn so that it stays down sometime; there 's no more 70 percent ;
4
(
1 I
5
~~
I i
I 6i COMMISSIONER GILINSKY:
We all understand that this I
i, i
7l is an estimate.
It could be higher; it could be lower.
I i
g.
The questien is:
Over these months, is that a I
9 reas onable --
i i
10 MR. HAINES:
I would think if the ocwer plant was i
t.
i i
1 11 '
broucht uo and turned over to the dispatcher to use --
j i
i r
i COMMISSICNER B RADFORD :
You're sort of passing each l
12 13 other, aren't you?
l t
.s 14,
When would vou exnect that to happen?
i, i
i h
MR. HAINES:
In about six months,
15 d
16 CCMMISSICNER 3RACFORD:
Sixth month from the time 1.1.,
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six-h mcnth would be Neverter.
And the s avings you' re quoting 4
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November, because we dcn' t kncw hcw well they ' re going to do.
- Federal R eDorters, Inc, 25 We Cbserved rhis is Cne Cf the few PCwer plants where the Qg%ijuc.,hw4M
,4
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=
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I 1'
schedule has never slipped. in the times we looked at it.
I i
1l We were surprised.
We sent back to see how many i
3 time:, the schedule has s lippe d, and they held their cwn.
So I'm not about to say that these gents can't i
5' deliver in October or Septe::'ber.
i i
l 6*
COMMISSIONER 3RADFORD:
But they haven't themselves i
7; said this a target.
I 3
MR. HAINES:
We haven't discussed this with the i
9i cwners?
think I might clarify something here.I 10 MR. FOWLKES:
I i
11,
We're lookinc. at svstem-for-system "elanninc. c. uro. c s e s.
A new t
I I
i 12 c.lant like this -- in your croc. rams, vou would probcblv. a. ut in :
l
~ '
13 a hicher forced outage rate, representing that unit is new l
.L-I 6
1.?
unit or an i!.'. mature unit.
15 Hcweve r, ove r the long run -- in ter.s of including d
16 that. anic for c.lannine. o. u r o. c s e s in the c. roc. ram, you would i
17 prcbably use the capacity f actor that might ccme cut Oc
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So when you talk about immature, forced outage rates, i
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that's generally in terms of a plarning procram cr a planninc.
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activity.
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But in terms of your dav-to-day operation, this unit i i
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within PJM.
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10 I COMMISSIONER BRADFORD:
But you' re talking really I
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about the period of time once the start-up testing is completed!i t
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be operating at anything like a hundred percent.
i 16 MR. FCWLKES:
'"h at ' s correct, but they will be other 1
i 17 times -- pe riod.s, normal pretest, precc.ne rcial peried whe re
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22 3'16 COMMISSIONER BPADFORD:
I see.
1 MR. FOWLKES:
Another thing, on the im.ao rts, anv.
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3 time the incremental cost within PJM is higher than an
/
I incremental cost on another system, for example ECAR to the al 5
West, which is a coal-based system, and ECAR has capacity 6
that it can sell to PJM, they would, of course, ship that i
i 7-energy to PJM and PJM would contract to purchase it because i
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And we got an estimate from PJM indicating that on 10 the average it would expect to be importing somewhere I
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between 5 and 6 cercent of their supplv recuirements for t
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using all different types of rate schedules.
i 13 One might be emergency of scme kind, some I
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14 of it might be econcay and some might be sc=e firm schedule i
15 for power. And they no= ally have a s cheduled import of 180 l
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megawatts from PASNY and the New York Power supply.
i 17 !i And that was included in our cacability.
1
'l le 1 CHAIRMA'i HENDRIE : Gentlemen, I think it wc'uld be 19 helpful if we went forward with the second part.
2c Th ee gentlemen, hopefully, will be a va.lable
.1 for c.uestions.
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thev ccminc back?
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CHAIRMAN HENDRIE:
They are gcing cc be right over 2-F ec ar at R ecc rie rs. I nc.
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if CCIOi!SSICNER AHEARNE :
I just wanted to straighten i
2, out a few sets of numbers.
3i CHAIPS.AN HENDRIE:
Th ank v ou ve ry much.
l COMMISSIONER AHEARNE:
Don't disaccear.
l 1
end t7 5
(Whereupon, at 3:15 p.m., the hearing was adjourned.)'
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