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Forwards 790328-0406 Notes Re Handling of TMI Accident.Info Partially Withheld:Home Telephone Number (Ref FOIA Exemption 6)
	ML19246A315
Person / Time
Site:	Crane
Issue date:	04/06/1979
From:	; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To:	; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
	NUDOCS 7906070030
	Download: ML19246A315 (57)
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e.,, ,q 1 1979' This table includes a number of assumptions about activity and weather. These assumptions have been chosen conservatively. In an actual release, the release rate and weather should be evaluated as they are at the time, and the decision based on, those values. A e-e 4 227 319 O

~ , Event - Spor,taneous failure or decision to perform a potentially risky maneuver Find out what actually happened and what is functioning. In tables Predict what could result - different likelihoods Predict release rate Determine present weather and forecas t Assured constant in table Dose Prediction In table Action Guidelines Per Appendix 7 e 227 320

PAGE 1 EXPECTED PLANT RELTASE ll4RNING EVACUATION WHO EVENT RESPONSE (RANGE?) AND TIME TIf1E SCEJARIO DECIDES

1. Loss of vital Restore Function Within No significant None*

f unc tion or I hour change decision to per, form a poten-tially risky Switch to Alternate Small leak less None* maneuver. Function involving Pri than 1 gal / hour Coolant in Aux Building Examples Large leak in 2 hour Evac 2 miles nside kn $tayg;Lo

1. Reactor Aux Building i

5 mil Coolant Pump 50 gal / min Trip. Failure to restore Core melt; see 2. Leak in Aux vital function item 2 below & Building. Appendix 1 3. Los s o f o f f-site power p, N 4. Loss of feed

For sufficien,tly risky maneuver, sa water do precautionary evac 2 mi and stay inside 5 mi', whether to do tra i

rs) 5. Depressuriza-this or not d 2 pends on details tion to go of maneuver and plant situation. on RllR. t

PAGE 2 EXPECTED PLANT RELEASE !!AR*;IrlG EVACUATIO:1 W110 EVEtiT RESP 0tlSE (RANCE?) AtlD TIME TIME srEllARIO DECIDES 2. Core Melt Maintain Containment Tech Spec Con-4 hour Precautiona ry Integrity (likely) with tainment Leak Containment Cooling Rate Evac 2 mi all around and 5 j mi sector; stay inside 10 mi e Containment Beached Reactor Safety 24 hour Evac 5 mi all A Study Categories around and 10 PWR 4 - See mi sector, staf Appendix 1 inside 15 mi 3. liydrogen Ex-tio significant change flo significant None plosion Inside in reactor or primary change Reactor Vessel system Core Crushed (unlikely) Core melt See Item 2 & Appendix 1 N N N tra l N N l I t

APPENDIX 1 MAJOR SEQUENCES OF EVENTS "ajor sequences evaluated here hre tied to the loss of forced circu-I chd lation in the RCS. The loss of flow from the reactor coolant pump ( ~ (RCP) is the generalized initiating event from which other initiating events such as loss of offsite power can develop. APPDIDIX 1.a SEQUENCES OF POSSIBLE SYSTEMS FAILURES Figure 1.b-1 shows the loss of RCP event tree. This tree shours the various options available given the loss of the RCP, and indicates which combinations of events or failures would lead to core meltdown (CM). The sequences denoted with an asterisk are those whi.ch would be ex-pected to follow the core meltdown progression discussed below, leading to the variety of atmospheric radioactive releases and consequences discussed later Some core meltdowns could be expected to be delayed gu. for roughly a week because of the availability of ECC injection over , % w u (. that period. This method of core cooling, however, is not expected to ]5 be adequate to prevent core melt; as such a core meltdown is assessed P -W a to occur at roughly a week. A rough measure of relative probabilities NK W)N of the various outcomes is indicated by the notation of L, M, H (lcw, 'N medium,high)'. The column on the right-hand side of the page indicates 1 ~a the relctive probabilities of the sequences, with "LM" as the highest [ { probability and L M as the icwest. kW 3 M (Lhe. \\ L hv EC g. \\ cm~u 6=~ c 227 323

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APPENDIX 1.b IMJOR EVENTS AND TIMING IN EVENT OF CDRE IMLTDC'.d Event 1 - Sprays and Coolers Operative Time =0 Flow stops, core and water start heat-up Time =100 min Cor'e~ starts to uncover Time =150 min. Core begins to melt Time =200 min Molten core is in lower head of reactor vessel, pressure is 2500 psia Time =210 min Reactor vessel fail.s, containment pressure goes to 25 psia Time =210 min Hydrogen burns, containment pressure goes to 67 psia Steam explosion possibility - minor cons.equence CONTAINMENT SU'RVIVES (Failure assumed 130 psia) Time =10 hours Molten core'has melted about 1 meter into basemat Time = days Major problem - handle hydrogen, oxygen - maintain contain-ment integrity CAUTION: - Keep sprays running i - Keep water many feet over molten debris - WITHOUT RECOM31NERS Hydrogen continues to build up BASEMT SURVIVES Event 1

Conclusion:

This event should not produce major releases i Event 2 - Sprays and Coolers Failed Befora Flow Stops Time =0 to Time =210 min ~. Same as Event 1 - containment pressure is 25 psia Time =810 min Containment pressure is 70 psia Time =1 day . Containment fails due to steam (mostly) overpressure - about 135 psia CONTAINMENT FAILS Event 2

Conclusion:

This event leads to major releases. 227 325

The avent tree for core melt leading to varicus releases is shown in Figure 1. b. The following are essential in the event of core melt. 1. Sprays and coolers are required to prevent major releases. 2. Hydrogen must be recombined or otherwise removed from containment. e 227 326

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Ic. Large Leak in Auxiliary Building ( AB)_ The activity level in the reactor coolant is so high that substantial releases can come from small amounts spilled in the AB which requices once through ventilation. A leak of 5 gpm to the AB atmosphere is assumed for the expected level of leakage. A leak of 50 gpm is taken as a large leak to consider a major leak in pump shaft sealing or soma similar mishap. Based on the leakage experienced already only the noble gases and no iodine are assumed to evolve. The AB ventilation exhaust is assumed to flow through the charcoal filters. Id. Hydrogen Exolosion in Reactor Pressure Vessel A detonation of the hydrogen c.'jgen bubble in the reactor vessel could.upture the vessel and/or crush the core. Rough analysis indicates that the pressure vessel would not rupture. Postulation of the core response is difficult. If the core is crushed, it could effectively prevent core cooling leading directly to the core melt sequence described earlier. It is unlikely that compression would lead to criticality. 227 328

Action Alternatives Evacuation Stay Inside 1. 2 nilec 2. 2 miles 5 miles 2 miles all around 3. 5 miles 90* sector 10 miles 5 miles all around 4. 10 miles 90 sector 15 miles a. All sector choices governed by wind direction. If shifting, more than one qua'drant may be affected'. b. These are initial values; as the release continues measurements may indicate the need for reconsideration of action up, to 20 miles.

t 6. Heather The table is based on F stability and 1 m/sec wind speed, in view of the April 1-3 forecast. At the approach to decision time for evacuation, the appropriate' met. condition will be factored into the. dose equations to determine the evacuaticn time, sectors, and distances for the evacuation. flRC is predi-ting X/Q for current meteorology as the incident progresses. we e

7.' Action Guidelines iiotify evacuation authorities two hours in advance to standby a. for a possible evacuation. b. Predicted doses of IR whole body or SR thyroid in 8 hours - mandatory evacuation of children and pregnant women.

c.. Predicted doses of SR whole body or 25R thyroid in 8 hours -

mandatory evacuation of all persons. Assumes general warning already that some form of evacuation may become necessary.

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---=----r-. ,5 --- - _-- ---. J.. . j _ FLIGHT 3/28/79-IF SHIPMAN / WATSON TIME: 1600-1/00 East edge of the plume was at Hummelstown, wes t edge a t Rutherford Heights. Levels were about 0.2'mr at '7' miles north of plant. 0.1 mr at 16 miles north. Plume extended at least as far as the ridge to the north of Harrisburg. Flown at 150 to l'O.00 feet. No change in count rate. FLIGHT 3/28/79-2F SHIPMAN / WATSON TIME: 1900-2000 East edge of the plume was at Putherford Hei; hts. West edge was at Camp Hill. Levels were slightly lower. Top of plume was at about 3000 feet. / = FLIGHT 3/29/79-lF SHIPMAN / WATSON _ TIME: 1000-1100 Vest edge of the plume was at Mechanicsburg. East edge was at Hershey with the maximum at a point about 2 miles west cf the river. The top was at ~ 100 feet and the bottom at 500 feet. 2 about'3200 feet, the max at FLl';HT 3/29/79-2F SHIPMAN / WATSON TIME: 1600-1700 Thn cas t edge of the plume was at Hummelstown. The west edge at Mechanics' burg at 10 miles. The maximum was about 0.2 mr-Near Hummelstown the top of the plume was at 1200 feet, the maximum at 1000 feet, and the bottom 227 340
..: s= _4.. at 800 'f e'e t. TITc p~1oEe/ cloud to the north of the plant appeared to be ~~ [ dissapating and a new plume was forming to the south. At 1/2 m?le south ~. at 500 feet, the nighest level wa_ 0.5 mr.'At the sit 2 boundary tIl the . south at 500 feet the levels were 10 mr. FLIGHT 3/29/79-3F SHIPMAN /TIPTON/EICHER TIME: 0700 Circled' plant at 1 distance of 8 miles. Saw no plume; only residules of
A Y about.100 h to northwes t of ai, port.
FLIGHT 3/29/79-4F, TIPTON/ WATSON TIME: 2230-2330 Plume Icw and close to plant. Top at about 500 feet. Leve! at 1/2' mile of about 1/2 mr. Plume did not extend more 'han 5 miles from plant. klind f rom 130 d'egrees at 3 knots. Ri dge to northwes t spl iI-plume with some trapped behind ridge and some going up river at very low al titude. FLIGHT 3/30/79-1F MACulRE/ WATSON TIME: 1030-1130 ' Maximum level of 20-30 mR at 300' al titude and 1/4' mile SW of plant. From 1/2 mile out plume is SE of piant. At I mile from plant highest levels are in the SW to the NNE. Approxima te 0.5-1.0 mR/hr a t SE. Top a t i mi!c approximately 1500' altitude. Did not extend more than 5-6 miles in SE direction. At 1/4 mile 500' al ti tude 8 nR, V.V r,f plant. 227 341 s._,
-....-....--___2_... .~ ^ =.-- - - ? FLIGHT 3 /_30/ 79-2 F_ gj// y'tf?;f. g,g g lin; - "f,'EL-lln.B) i,- Plume is very narrow. Leaving plant on a bearing of 280 degrees. Hottest point near ground. Top at 1200'. ' DISTANCE FROM PLANT (MI) Mr 1-1 9 1.5 8 b ...{ g I 2 2.5 8 ?, . - 3' 7 .~ 3.5 4 4 5 2 ~ ' Predominently up river valley. FLIGHT 3/30/79 TIPTON/ WATSON TIME: 2130-2230 Flew a c rcle around the plant at I mile out at 500' al ti tude and 100d' al ti tude. i Cloud appr.oximately 30 degrees-40 degrees wide going to the NW. Maximum reading approximately 1/2 mR (with sciatillatign counter) A Ps 1' ~~L ....
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~ a L rc~~ S~co M ~ ~ r - Fl ew a].~ti t ude s pi ra l from 1500' to 300' approximately 3 miles f rom p i ant at a ~. . heading of 330 degrees. Entered the cloud at approximately 1000', maxim;m at 'e: approximately 500', decreasing down to 300' where haci to level off. a Flew a radial at a heading of approximately 330 degrees out frcm th-Seeing levels varying from 10'0 to 200 hr all the way out, 18 mil p'lant.until broke of f line due to ridge. Radial ficwn at 500' al ti tude. ~- I Flew half ci rcle at distance of 5 miles out from plant. still approximately y x /.-. 30-40 degrees wide. Altitude 500'. 9[ 7
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i . : = - g:_. m. . _ _. 1. :_ _.. ...._ I. FL I GHT 3/-31/79 -"~r-- TlPTON/UATSON TIME: 0015-0105 Perform. a circle around the plant at I mile out y 500' altitude,and 1000' f~' lini.'. r p ?./u 1n. h a1titude. 4/3 t p
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(., s \\<j Wind out of 240 degrees Flew a radial a t 500' al ti tude in a di rection o.' approximately 020 degrees out. for 18 miles before breaking off. Did not run out 4 the plume. Levels we 7ut Measured approximately 20 degrees 100 jar /hr along the path of the plume. angular spread out at 18 miles as did at 1 mile. Did an al ti tude spiral about (; miles out from the site in a oirection of 020 degree from 1500' to 300'. Entered the cloud at 800'. Continued to increase all the way dou:. to 300' where had to level out. Maximum reading at 300'was150j:a/hr. FLIGHT 3/31/793 MAGUIRE/EICHER TIME: 0300-0400 Flew a circle around the plant at I mile out at 500 ' al ti tude anli 1000 ' al ti tude. 0 5 ~ * *l "fw ~ r. S.,-A-];,, ,/ 300 J ] GOD j _,/ Wind out of 245 degrees (25 knots) e 500' al t. 227 343 Flew a. radial at 500' altitude in a direction of approximately 060 degrees out (a pp rox. 5 degrees) for 20 miles. Plume extends past 20 miles. Narrow cone at 14 miles had levels of 100-200 /h r. -m.------..---.-....
_ ) -C.2-i-iL~.-,- ,,.x inadirectionof060 degree'sNrom L, '. 2.5-3 miles out Flew al ti tude spi ral at 700' -1100' altitude 3pR/hr. .2pR/hr-the plant. At 1100'-1500' altitude Sharp top between 600' and ~/00'. Levels rise to approximately 1 mR '6e tween 600' ~ and 700' al ti tude. Stay constant down to 200' alti ude. 3 FLIGHT 3/31/ ~ MAGUlRE/EICHER TIME: 060')-0715
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{ W ~ g,,. j ~ rear N / \\, v w-Ground winds 3 knots @ 245 degrees Flew out along 050* radial. Levels drcoped from 1 mR/hr at approximately 1.5 miles out and dropped to 100-200p3/hr at 13 miles. Levels stayed constant oct to 30 miles from the plant. Top of plume is sharp at 600'. 100-200g/hr , levels were present to the ground. Width of plume appeared the same at 4 miles cut and 20 miles out (approximately 2 miles wide). t All along plume top appeared at 600' with constant levels from 0-500' al ti tude. ~ FLIGHT 3/31/79 SHIPMAN / WATSON . TIME: 0900-1000 At I mile and 'iOO' plume was between 030 and 060 wi th maximum at 045 of 3 ma/hr. At 1 mile and _1100' plume was betwaen 030 and 060 wi th maximum at 045 of 0.5 mR/hr. At 3 miles in center of plume top was a t 800 feet and went to ground level. Dose rate nearly cons tant throughout valve of 1 mR/hr. ^^7 344 227 N ~ g ,g g B -O6 4 g
-5b: -3r_,. ~ ' . =__.. 3 n.il(Ts plume was fY6Tn ~030-050 rad.a1 aEay ' r o:n p l a n t on 045 was 3 mR/hr At qut to 2 miles, 2 mR/hr at 3 iniles dropped to 1 mR/hr by 10 miles. n Folicwed plume to Myerstown, about 22 miles where the level was about 0.1 mR/hr. o FLIGHT 3/31/79 SHIPMAN / WATSON TIME: 1215-1330_ No major change. No I '. Plume at 500' and 1 mile between 030 and 060 maximum value of 1., mR/hr. At 3 miles plume between 030 and 060 maximum value of 1.5 inR at 300' top of plume at 2800' bottom on ground. At IC miles ~ maximum value of 0.2 mR/hr maximum at 1800'. 1 s. 227 345
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ML19246A315

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