ML19220C478
| ML19220C478 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Crane  |
| Issue date: | 06/28/1977 |
| From: | Kepford C CITIZENS FOR SAFE ENVIRONMENT |
| To: | |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 7905100205 | |
| Download: ML19220C478 (9) | |
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Health Effects Comparison for Coal i
9
%fd and I'uclear Power Three Mile Island Unit 2 l
Testi=ony of
'[1 Jijg 3 G Chauncey R. Kepford g-c ~.*~.~c July 977 3
n LJ The problen of attaching a certain level of health b/N 1 4 degradation to the population from electrical energy generation in a thorny one.
Co==ents on such health effects have been
=ade by various authera, (Refs. 1 4) among others.
While there is a wide variation in the for= and =egnitude of the results, I
i one common thread holds the= together, and that is that they I
?
tend to concentrate on the health ef fec ts attributable to facility operations and tend to disregard heIlth effects over the life-5 ti=e of very long-lived isotopes.
Fehl has offered sone calcula-tions with regard to radon-222 e=issions frc= uraniu= =ill tailings piles over extended pericds.
The purpose of this testi=ony is to compare so=e of the very long ter: health effects fro: Three Mile Island Unit 2 to a coal-fired unit of the sa=e sine.
It will be i
suggested that the health effects esti=ations which have appeared in the literature, including those of Fohl, are orders of =agnitude too low for both options.
Some idea of the =agnitude of the radioactivity proble= of the uraniu= =111 tailings can be obtained fro: Table 1.
This table compares the cumulative total quantities of long-lived radioactive wastes to be produced by the anticipated nuclear industry in the 1975-2000 period.
The ore tailings, with a relatively s=all nu=ber of curies,
require the second largest dilution volumes in three of the four time periods listed, and the largest in the fcurth.
The proble=
arises because of the long half-life of thorium-230, 80,000 years, and the 4.5 billion year half-life of uraniu=-233 The = ore biologically important isotope daughters of these two isotopes are radon-222 and its daughters, including lead-210 with a 21 year half-life.
The prob 1c= exists because radon-222, being a gas, can dif fuse and of the tailinga piles in substantial qu. ntitica n)
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79 05100 Jhof%
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v before decaying.
Radon-222 has three related sources in the uraniu= cill tailings.
First, fro = th oriu=-230, in secular equilibriu= with the uraniun-238 in the ore.
In the =111ing process, I assu=e 90% of the uraniu=-238 is removed fro = 0.1%
y g ore, and 100% of the thorium-230 re=ai=s in the are tailings..
UO Table 1 Waste Raqioactivity Volume needed for dilution
1 (MC1)
Air Water Year after shutdown 100 1,000,000 100 1,000,000 l 100 1,0C 3,t 20 18 1.5x10 5 3 1x1C Solidified i2610
.9 6,1x10 3 0=10 I
high-level Cladding 24 0.000 h.$x10 6.Ox1013 12 1.7x10 1,2,xyc 3
1 10 Iodine 3994 3825
?).ox10 1,9x10 6.7:10 6.4xit i
Low-level transuranics 6.3 0.0 4.7=10^9 4.8x10^6 ' I.3x10 6.4x1C r
Inter =ediate-level 13 2.3x10^5 5.3x10--
7.2xit 3
37 trancuranics
.93 0.00 1.1x10 13' 10 9
Nontransuranic
.13 0.00 6.5x10 1.6x10 4.4x10 1.3=1; 13 Ore tailings 3.8 0.3.
5 3x10 2.7x10 1.6=10 8.1=1C 1,
See paper for definitions of waste categories.
2.
Volu=e of air or water needed to dilute all radicactive ec=ponents to 1cvels epecified in ERDA's Radiation Concen tra tion Guides as =axi=u= acceptable for unrestricted use.
3e
- Curies, i
The cecond cource is fro = the 10% of the uraniu=-233 remaining in the ore.
And third, the depleted uranium-233 fro = the gaseous dif fusic.n plants.
The quantitica of radon-222 which will ulti=ately be produced by decay of these three sources from the ore cined for one year's operation of TMI-2 are listed below in Table 2.
The source terms are from WASE-1248, Table S-1, corrected for the 880 MWe c apac ity of TMI-2 and its assumed life time capacity f actor, 0.65 26 034
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Table 2 l
Source of Radon-222 Radon-222 produced, curies 8
Thorium-?30 2.9 x 10 73 Uranium-233 1ert in ore) 1.6 x 10 13 Uranium-233 (depleted) 1.3 x 10 With the depleted uranium-233, it is assumed that all is open to the environment, which is not new the case, as it is in steel cylinders.
However, unless it currently stored as UF6 io properly cared for, it will be released, since the integrity of the cylinders cannot be assured for the necessary time pericd.
s The numbers in Table 2, it must be,e,mphasised, represent the J
nu=bers of curies of radon-222 prodpced by deca 7, and do not necessarily represent quantities re. leased to the environ =ent.
I Assuming one per cent of the raden-222 formed by decay is released to the environ =ent, the quantities remain large.
Yet the long-ter:
health effecto go largely ignored.
None of the authors cited (Refs. 1 4) appear to have considered health effe-ts from mill tailings.
Pohl considered only the thorium-230 contribution to radon-222 generation, ignoring the remaining uraniu=-233.
The biggest problem with long-term health effects calcula-tions is the sheer conjectural nature of future population numbers and distributions.
Th e simplest solution is to projec t the present situation ahead to infinity (a prospect seme find =ost depressing).
Using this projection, one.an then easily calculate the long-ter: health effec ts attributabic to TMI-2.
On this basic, 8
ucing the death rate of Getchy of 0.023 deathn per year, and the emission rate of Table S-3 of 74.5 curies of radon-222 per ye ar, a death rate per curie can be obtained as deaths per curie per year.
From this, and the numbers in Table 2, each reduced by 100, and each =ultiplied by the 30-year opera tional lif e of TMI-2, the deaths attributable to TMI-2 are obtained, and are listed in table 3 Also listed in Table 3 are th e deaths calculated using the total health ef fects for the 30-year operational life of the 9e nor cu UCJ
q N
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4 9
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=111 fro = the EPA'.
The term health effects containo total c ancers, fatal and non-f a tal, and genetic ef fects.
Table 3
- Deaths, Deaths, Source of P.aden-222 Gotchy EPA E
Thoriu=-230 2.7 x 10 1,4 x 1D 8
Uraniu=-233 (left in cre) 1.5 x 10 7,5 x 10 9
9 Uraniu=-233 (depleted) 1.2 x 10 6.1 x 10 Again, it mus t be c=phasized t.'nat these nu=bers are based on a constant world population and ropulation distribution.
However inappropriate this assu=pt on may see: to co=e, it serves as a starting place in the u'nderstanding of the long -
ter= health effects of the uranium fuel cycle.
Although the model developed here is not a perfect pre-t' dictive tool, it more closely approximates the full health inpact than do the models, used in current regulatory prac tice, which assune no health ef fects af ter a certain arbitrary ti=e.
Alternatives to per=itting these health costs would be to either not =ine the uraniu= in the first place, or to dispose of the tailings and deple ted uraniu=-238 in such a way that they will be secure throughout the necessary geological ti=e period.
An alternative =ethod of looking at the ha ard free the the hanard from the tallings in to assu=e, for computational purposes, that the radon-222 produced over long periods is, instead, produced annually in the quantities listed in Table 2 e t the tailings piles.
The ' ef fec t would be to charge the present generation with the 10 or = ore curies of radon-222 (again assu=ing 1% reaches the environment) that would be released for each year's operation of TMI-2 concurrently with its opera tion.
The radon proble= is =uch more apparent with this approach, sinco the quantities of radioactivity involved are about the sa e as an entire year'c production of fission products.
The total release Q?
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4 of a year's fission products to the environnent would surely constitute a disaster of unprecedented proportion.
The combustion of coal which contains uranium can also present enor=cus health effects.
For a coal-fired plan t of 830 MWe generating capacit,~, abou t 1.6 x 10 tons of coal would be needed each year, assuning a 0.65 capacity factor.
If the uranius concen-11 tration is 1 ppe, then about 2.1 x 10 curies of radon-222 are committed to be released by the eventual decay of the uraniu=-233.
If one assames a uniform distribution of the uraniu= throughout the ash : slag, and very fine, respirable particles, at least 99%,
maybe 99.5%, can be recovered at the plant.
Also, since the ash constitutes a cr.all f rac tion o f the original bulk of coal, the obvious solution to the uranium in Ash problem is to return it to therefenseduraniun,andhence, the cine.
This would reduce 9
radon-222, to about 2.1 x 10 curiep.
However, the population density in the east is cuch higher than in the areas of present uraniun zining.
Assuming 3 million people to be within a 50 mile radius of the alternative coal-hurning plant at TMI, an increase in population density of about 50 is calculated over that used by f
Gotchy (Ref. 7, Appendix A, 1.(a)).
With this factor of 50 and a 0
995 renoval of ash, the health ef fec ts beco=e 9.8 x 10, using 9
the death rate per curie of Gatchy, er 5.0 x 10 using the EPA rate.
In Table 4, the long-term health costs for the coal and nuclear generating options are listed for various plant para =eters, Table 4 26 03/
Deaths THI-2 TMI ('c oal)
Gotchy EPA Gotchy EPA Deaths per INe (8EO) 1.4 x 10 6.9 x 10 1.6 x 10 5.7 x 1 7
7 Deaths per year (30) 4.0 x 10 2.0 x 10 3 3 x 10 l',7 nr 2 Deaths per kilowatt 0.003 0.04 0.007 0,03 hour3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> Kilowatt hours per death 125 25 140 33
i 6
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I consider the nu=bers in Table 4 to be very conservative esti=ations of deaths from the operation of either T :I-2 or a coal-fired alternative.
Sinply the change from the " absolute risk" nodel and 30-year cencer plateau to the relative risk =odel with a lifetine plateau would increone the deaths by a factor of about 7.10 Th e u c e or a lung doce model to re flec t the doce to the sensitive areas of the lung might raise the death by another factor of up to 10.
But any such changes apply equally to both options.
Differences night, hcwever, manifes t the=selves.
Since the coal ash not collected is the cause of problem here, the f ate of the ash af ter it leaves the plant becomes i=por-tant.
I have assumed it all cones down within 30 =iles of the s'
plant.
It may not, and significant, portions =ight end up in the 3
oceans, or depos'ited across 'sia, fhe for:er would reduce the death toll, but not other land deposition.
Similarly, geologic processes =ay serve to reduce the toll from the cill tailings piles, as they are ashed away and eventually Covered.
s However, both options, under current and anticipated control technologies, serve to re=ove an unnecessarily large slice of people fro: the human race.
People, it should be noted, who will derive no benefits from the operation of TMI-2 4
26 038
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FOOTNOTES 1,
Ernest J. Sternglass. " Environmental Radiation and Human Health".
In:
Proceedi r s of the Sirth Earkelv Sv rosium on Mathe a tical Statin tics and I' r o 'c a b ili t v.
University of California Fress, 1971.
2, John W. Gofran, Testi.nony submitted to the Environmental Protection Agency on Froposed "Part 190 -- Environmental Radiation Protection Standards for Nuclear Power Operations",
April, 1976.
3 L.B. Lave and L.C. Freeburg, " Health Ef fec ts of Elcetricity Generatier. from Coal, Oil, and Nuclear Fuel", Nuclear Safety 13, 1973, pp. 409 423.
't 4,
L.D. Hamilton, "The Health and I'hvirennental Effects of Electricity Generation--A Frelihinary Report."
3rookhaven National Labora tory, BNL 20332, fJuly, 1974 5.
Robert O. Fohl, "Ecalth Ef f ec tci or Radon-222 fro: Uraniu=
Mining."
Search, 7 (1976), pp. 345-354 6.
Numbers taken from various tables from " Projections of Wastes to be Generated," International Synposium on the Management of Jastes from the UlR Fuel Cycle, July 11-16, 1976, Denver, Colorado.
7.
Environmental Survev er the Uranium Fuel Cvele, WASE-1248, U.S. Atomic :nergy Cecnirsion, April, 1974 Cata derived from numbers in Table S-1, corrected for capacity factor and electrical output, and assu=ing no uraniu or plutonium recycle, and secular equilibrium in the ore.
8.
R.L. Gotchy, Tr :ti ony in these proceedings, entered Fay 21, 1977.
Footnote, Table la.
9.
Fnvironmental Aralvcis of the tira r ium Fuel Cvele, Part I, Fuel Surrly, U.S. Environmental Trotection Agency, EP A-320/9 OO3-B, 1973 Table 2-13, page 61.
Each codel mill cupplies the U)Og necas of 5.3 model LWRs (p.3).
10.
Final Generic rnvircr ental State.ent on the Une of Peevela I:1utcrir-in t :xed Cn cie el in li:ht.m u r h,eters, ( J.:.e.".0,
Final) I,URES-CCC2, U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Cc==1ccion, Au uct, 1976, Vol. 3, Chapter IV, Section J, Appendix 3,
- p. III JC3)-3,
26 039
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v 4
Professionni qualifications Chauncey Eepford B.S., Chemistry, 1961, University of the Pacific, Stockton, Calif.
PhD., Chemis try, 1968, Universit" of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada.
Research Scientist, 1967-1969, United Aircraft Research Laborateries, East Hartford, Conn.
Quantitative determinations of free-radicals generated by a 80C0 curie Cobalt 60 source, Design and operation of a bromine-hydresen iodide chemical laser.
Assistant Professor of Chemistry, Yo k Campus of the Pennsylvania State University, 1959-1971,
. t.
Testified on nunerous occasions befdre State and Natienci Y
Le-islative bodies, NRC and EPA meetings, and workshops.
F Full-tire activity since 1971 -- the problens of nucicar power.
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CERTIFICATE CF SERVICE 6
I hereby certify copies of " Health Effects Comparison for Coal and Nuclear Power," testimony of Chauncey R. Kepford, dated July 5, 1977, have been served on the following by deposit in the U. S. Mail, First Class, postpaid, this day of June, 1977.
Edward Luton, Esc., Chairman George T. Trowbridge, Esq.
Atemic Safety and Ticensing Board St. a w, Tittman, Fotts &
U.S. Nuclear Re;;ula tory Co==ission Trowbridse Washington, D.C. 20555 l
1800 M Street, N...
Washington, D.C. 2C036 f'
Mr. Gustave A. Linenberger Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Atomic Safety & Licensing t
Board Fan el U.S. Nuclear Regula:ory Cc-uission Washington, D.C. 20555 U.S. Nuclear Regurate: y Co=:ission Dr. Ernes t O. Salo Washington, D.C. 20555 Professor, Finheries Research In s titu t e, WiI-10 Atomic Safety and Licensing College of Fisheries Appeal Board University of*lashington U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Seattle, Washington 98195 Co= mission Washington, D.C. 20555 Karin W.
Carter, Asst. Attorney General Office of Enforcement Docketing and Service ITe partment of ~:nvironmental Resourc es Section 709 Health and Welfare Buildins Office of the Secretary Harrisburg, Fennsylvania 17120 U.S. Nuclear Re;ulato y Comeirsion Washington, D.C.
20555 He'nry J. McGurren Counsel for NRC Staff Nuclear Regulatory Cc:missi Washington, D.C.
20535 7'
B0i tO U<
l Aft
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-L-J Chauncey Kepfedd ' / /
Representativ'e of the Intervenors