ML19220C047
| ML19220C047 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Crane  |
| Issue date: | 09/03/1968 |
| From: | Eaton R JERSEY CENTRAL POWER & LIGHT CO. |
| To: | |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 7904280119 | |
| Download: ML19220C047 (21) | |
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,t Repor: :::
Jersey Cen:ral ?:wer s Light Ccepany Morris:ce. Ne. Jersei 3 ASIS FOR RI? ORT 1.
Under da:e of Dece=.cer 28,.1967, :he undersignec su:mi::cd a report en :he subjec: c: :::a3. :3. ceding :c be expec:ec unde r con.
. :::ns c:. :ne procaale max.=um nutricane wnten : u.,: Occur in :nis area.
3y let:er June 25, 1963, the AIC recuested :he f:llowing additional information from Jersey Cen:ral Power & Lign: Cc=pany:
a.
All surge height elevations associa:ed wi:h the Probable Maxi =um Hurricane 'EdH) snculd be evaluated based on :he EhH parameters derivec by the Hydr:ceteor: logical 3 ranch o f the U. S. Weather Bureau. These parace:ers, app ro p riat e f:r :he
'ys:e Creek site, are defined in "Mctecro' gt:al Characteristics of the Probable Maxi =um Hurricane Atlantic and Gulf Coas:s o f :he Uni:ed 5:ates" Interior Repor:, U. S. Depar::ent of Ccccer:e, ISSA, Weather Bureau ayd::ce:ecrological 3 ranch, dated May 1968.
b.
Cocputations involving varia:icns o f :he FMH para =e:ers, na ely racius :o maxt=u winds (R) and forward speed of : anslation (!) shcu'd ce carrie.
ou: in order :o establish tha: the hypothetical stars selectad produces :he max =um surge he;;n: at
- his si:e. The resul:s o f this inves:igation shcu'.d be fu'ly discussed in ycur respense, c.
The maxi =um open ceas: surge heigh: shculd be evalua:ed and described using me neds given in ei:her "Shere Protection, Planning and Desigr" Technical Raper: No.
U. 3. Ar:y Ccas:al Inginee r-e 1
4.,..
ven...,
. n... A.4..:.-..,
4 ;. A. A.,
n = s. 4._ a 4., n,.-
. g
-s.
o durTicane Surje Hyd:: graphs,".*curnal o f the Wa:erways and Harters Dietsien, ASCI,.: 1.
9-No.
W.W.
2,
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p..
S6 083
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.u w a s w~ ~ ~.. s '. ' a. - =. ~. a.
.*.e a'..'.*~..'. 2."..'..=
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of the si:e due :a wind s:ress ac:;ng on :ne free water surf ace o f :he bay.
This water pile up wculd 2
give an ace' ::ana, se:ue o f :he surge.
.nis a::e::
should be censidered is.vcur evalua:ica using :he e:hed o f cocpu:ing :he bay surge coupled :: the open ecast surge presented in " Numerical Medel f:r Stor: Surges in Galvest :n 3ay," by Reid, R. O.
and Sodine, 3. R., Journal o f :he Waterway: and Harbors Divisien, ASCE, Vol. 96 Nc. W.V.
- 1. Proc. Paper 36C5, February, 1968.
e.
What is the addi:icnal wa:e surface rise in the cay system due to direc: rainfall and uplanc rainfall runo f f? The quan:ity o f rainfall and curation wculd be tha: associated wi:h the Probable Maximu= Hurricane.
f.
Describe :ne results of your analysis and ce:heds used to supeert the ex:rece low :ide elevation o f
-3.
feet MSL as stated in the Uni: 2 PS AR.
g.
Infor:ation is necessary to suppor: :ne 1 fac: w ave ranup at the site since i: is not apparent : hat wind waves would decay :o the magnitude indica:ed in Section 2.4. 3. ie o f :he Uni 2 PS AR.
e w-v.. S r-e L. - r Cv-PRm,ryrJ,A.,s.v o
2.
The ISSA Me=crandum o f May 1963 in its present form is regarded as an excellent docu=ent providing guidelines bu: no: necessarily providing exact values for specift: si:es, in ::ans=1::ing :he repor: :o :he Corps of ngineers it wa; stated that i: " presents preli=: nary es:imates of generalized indices fo: the Pr;bable Maximum Hurricane (FMH) along
- he A:lan:1 and Gulf Coas :s o f the United States".
"?reli=inary" me ans tha: :he values arrived a: are no: certain. All repor:s o f :ha: type vill probacly be preliminary for =any years in :he future for :e:ecr:1:gy is s:1.,,1 ruca nre c:. an ar: :han a science.
.,caenera,t:ec.. reans tha:
a.
the vaa.ues are..r.,.roximations w,.:h res ec: to aav. s eci.::: 3,:e and cus:
be ad.tus:ed b.v in:e. cla:icn and evalaa:Len of local environmental 7
ancmalies. It is our mission to in:erpre: the ISSA Mercrancur in terms of i:s applica*; ion to Cyster Creek anc :: de: ermine wha: adjus::ents, if any, sneuld be made in cur prior repc e:.
3.
1: is :bvi:us :ha: assigning :he highes: possible valae :o eaca :f
- he paraceters :na: govern s::r= in:ensity and i:s e f fe:: st a spe:.:i:
shore '.cca:ica.cula result in :he Maxi =um P:s s ib'.e Hurricane ra:ner than o
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ta:ter o f reascning anc jucgren:.
Oys:er '.. r e e.<
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v The a:: ached repc:: by
-v Assecta:e, Mr.
!. I. Haeussner, presen:s a thor:ugn analysis et :he IS50 Me:crandu:.a 2pp'..;2:: n :: Cys:er Creek.
He is not in agreemen: n:h :he ap p r: ac n esec in de:er-ining ::e As v. e::::1: Pressura anc presen:s his re asoning in :nis re'ard.
He a'so s
presents an adjus::en: cf :ne ::::i:21 forsar speec o f :he s :rm.
n.:n is based upon :ne e f fe::s o f 1: cal tapegra:n/.
In my :pinien nas reas:n-in; is qui:e scund and resul:s do not viola:e :he bas.: : ncept at :ne
?u u..
5.
He has presented an analysis 2:pli:a:1e :: each o f the ques:icas raised by AIC.
He has evalua:ed :he e f fect of wind set-up in 3arnaga:
3ay -hich : uld raise :he st::s cide level at :he plant si:e by as ruch as 1 foot and pr: poses raising :he previously recemcended cesign hign wa:er stage (17.06 f:. MSL) to 16.06 f:. MSL.
He :ines no otner adjus:-
ments :o be jus:ified.
I : ncur in Mr. Haeussner 's findings and re::ecend :ha: :he design s:orm tide for :he MPH be 13.1 f t. MSL wi:h 1 foc: adced for wave runup resulting in ex:rece flood stage o f 19.1 f:. MSL.
/ /./
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/
July 23, 1967 Richand O. Ia::n, P.I.
Consul:ing Engineer Incl. Repc : by T.I.Haeussner, dated July 16, 1968 r
86 083 Oys:er Creek Page :
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The fell: wing infor atten is subnitted in respense : a request from the At ?.1: Energy Lc=P.issi:n to Jersey Central ?:ver i Light Ccapany, dated Jcne 2', 1966.
- f:r a*1:r. requested was n
c:ntained in Attachnent A, as encl: Jure to tna t lette r, consts*-
ing of 7 ques *iens :n ' yd cle.7 Replies to tho:e ques *iens are d
enu.ersted i tnr:ugr. 7 in the foll:w.ng :araga:ns.
1.
Evaluati:n of ?.'d.H. rarameters. A c:9parisen w1s made :f the 3.".H.
para.9eters cen*ained in " nit 2.:SAR and these that wculd be derived fren %crandun m.7. 7-97, "Interin Repert - Ve tecr logical Characteristics of the Probacle Maxi. hun Hurricane, Atlantic and Gulf Ccasts of the United States *. The latter re:cet, dated May 7, 1960, centains preli..inarf esti.~.ates of the generalized indi:es for the ?.M.H. and, as suen, is an interin repcrt vitn the final re:cr*
te be publisned at sene later date. fer esse in referen:s, each para ~eter w.11 be compared in a separate sue-;arsgra:_h tel:w.
a.
C.F. :. ( :-). Table 1 of ref. 9.em2 h'.'E 7-97 presents a listinc of ?! vilaes consicered reascnably applica:le st varicus latitudes al:nc tne Atlantic and C-ulf c 1sts.
Tae latitude of the plant site is approx-ately 29C L9'.i.; 0 40 a.
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" nit 2 PSAR is 39c ;;' :*.
C?* values for lat:tudes 390 an:
L00 'i. fren "able 1 Of ?? 7 7 are listed bel:v ::gether 86 086
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.a It can ':e seen fr:n tne aco te cen: arisen :n.2 tne Unit 2 iSAR nvf.r ya...e,Jse. 4s
.4.
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radius of maxi =n vinds. Table 1 of ref. Vemc. EJ3 7 ^7 2.4s.s
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lati*ude 390 N. the talues riven rarse fren 7 to 39 nautical miles. The value of 2 used in " nit 2 PSAR is 30 nautical.iles.
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.4 vnich, in thenselves, are net a:seciated witn severe currica.nes of lov C.:.
In view of the fact that no neteerclegicsl evidence has been presented to preve cenclusively that a severe hurricane of extre.ely lev CPI -ust cecur with an extre.ely hign pn val"c, One :. value used in Unit 2 PSA.i is censidered reas nabl" c. r: cable of cccurrence and applicable to the analysis nade and results
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.sxi.:'r. v nd speed. A.axi. c. 1C -inute average 30 ft..
ve..a.e.
w_. ^ s p e e ^..~.' '. = 3...>..' s ; '.~. n... ' _. "..'.'e. '.~.'~=..'.o.,..
El*?. 7-?7 Ocrrespending to a CP: cf 27.29 inenes at latitude 39C 4.,
a o.. value Of 31.2h inenes (noted in sub-paragraph e abevel, and a f:rward speed of 30 knc*.s.
- f a f:raard speed of 2C kn::s had been used the value cf 7: wenid have been 5.ph less, :: 127 m:.
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n.. val'le Of 3C.28 iner.es anc a f F43 rd s:ee d O f 2C /.nc
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in cenjuncti:n vitn ?'h analysis. *nese values are 11, 27, and 59 kncts, rsspectively.
n : cit 2.:SAR a forward speed of 2 kncts was selected based cn c:nsidersti:n of offsr.cre sr.el' slope, and v.e a.e.,.wg, ~m _7,
'.'.a~.sn*.
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^
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mere detail belev, tne f:rvsrd speed Of t e s cr'. effects tr.e s.ha y e a..d d"
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e For faster mcVing sterns a slightly higher reak surge will result a.
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than-peak height values.
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- ". e.:'^...' - - *. '. = '.,r s *. a..
c Creek tide analysis, as given in '.'ni-2.:S AR, are ccr.sidered as havin.
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'.'..de cen;cnen ' was 00mputed. Based en a storm speed Of ?? kn:*.s ne s ".. g e
".y"..-. e-~. a "r h s.".c'.~.. c n = '.~.'.' e ^ ~.' *.a '.. =. r c ~. ~. w.a s *. *. *. e.-. '.= '.
e.
~%- effect of stern speed en peak ecasta' s"rge heign* can be related
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depends :n the rati: Of forward sreed of tne stern to the speed of the free wave, I.
In '; nit 2 ?EA..
ne speed Of the free wave was de-termined c be 62 f t/sec., or b2 pn, based :n offsb. Ore t pcgrapny.
.:r a stern speed Of 20 knots ( 23 ph) ine ratio Of 7/C = 0.'I; f:r
.:C".C., g ( v,
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- * ".e bay.
- he cet result veuld be a lever vster level in 3arnegat 3sy.
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w
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One ccean surge begins tc recede bel w tne. eak elevati:n reached
..e. a,, t,, 4..
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- s. e. r). 3.4,... r.4 ca. cy.. r,.y
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a h+ ".c ur. a.
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- t a.'.. ". a. d.
st. eed of 20 'cnots. Fcr a s:crn ncvin twice as fast across *ne r
d o cn.. e n.a. e h.e'..'
- ..".e u a *.*.n.f ev a...'*..w ve".' d
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d
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- .'.e e.-= d. ' c *.
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r'.'.". s"..-~a.
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Cyster Creek site is the eccditi:n of dune eresi:n and consequen*
- '. A.a.1 ve.. ~v. '..".e a s s"-y ~..'. r. s na d e -=. ~, a. ". '. - * ".e
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- s
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"cuever, these assurnti:ns cculd be :uite easily affected and
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.ay be ser.e difference cf opinien as to
- he exact C.-I, radius cf v a ' ".e ar.d., * ".e
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n-e.==.*.e.s
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3.
Evaluate axi.tu : cpen ceast 3"rge hei.-.t.
Several.e*.heds are 4.
. e w,4 a., e.e,.
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~t,
s.e w,.,..
.,.. e.. :,. n.,. a. <.
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and Cesign" ". S. Ar rf CZEC, Third Edi*ien 1906 for use in ecm:11t.
irg the -axi.--rt cpen ceas* sur-e height. Amcng these is ref. 171 which is the same as Reference 3 to ~~ nit 2.:SAR....that cf Dr. 'i. J.
Ecid. The for :la and precedures recc-ended in Reference 5 were those csed in L' nit 2.:SAR to arrive at *ne
.axi.-".i cpen coast surge w 4 r*
'.o. 3 2..
V, 7 ~, I.
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..o
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Additienal v nd setue in Barnegat 34v.
Curir.g the pericd cf
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sa.e.. evaluatiCn is m.ade Cf the, resence and effect Cf 5"Crerged a. 7. 7. e.rs. 7 v..an s e.e gu
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is snewn Cn -xnibit 2, aCtached. Ccean surge eleve*i:ns and "e-.
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