ML19220B583

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Summary of NRC Position on Rn-222 Question.Feels Position Taken by C Kepford Re Number of Deaths Caused by Health Effects from Mine Tailings Are Based on Invalid Assumptions
ML19220B583
Person / Time
Site: Crane 
Issue date: 08/23/1978
From: Muller D
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To: Kee J
AFFILIATION NOT ASSIGNED
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ML19220B584 List:
References
NUDOCS 7904270056
Download: ML19220B583 (2)
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{{#Wiki_filter:;- AUG 2 31978 Mr. Jares Kee 211 Vyoc11ng Avenue Wilmington, Delaware 19809

Dear Mr. Kee:

Cr. Gotchy of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission staff has inforved me of his discussion with you regarding the Racen-222 cuestion by telephone, August 13, 1978. I hope his updating of the situation since the TMI-2 hearing helped answer the concerns in your July,1978 letter to the Department of Energy. As he mentioned, this letter was referred to the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Concissicn (NRC) Office of Huclear Reactor Regulation for response. To be certain he effectively responded to the major concerms raised in your letter I would like to briefly summarize our beliefs below: (1) The 1.2 million deaths claimed by Dr. Kepford were not for 1,000 years, but for the infinite decay of all of the thoritm-230 and unrecovered uranium-238 remaining in unstabilized mill tailings piles (i.e.; the integration would span a time period of about 7 billion years; this is greater than the esticated age of the earth). (2) Dr. Gotchy did not agree that Dr. Kepford's calculations had any real meaning since such long integrations must assume the conticuad and unchanging existence of our society as it is today (i.e.; the same life expectancies, competing risks such as autocebile ceaths, same scontaneous cancer death rates as today,etc). He only said that if one makes such assumptions, that Dr. Kepford's arithmetic was aporeximately correct. We believe that such exercises have no meaning to today's society or future societies. Fe feel our conclusion is st7ngthened further by the fact that the icpact of Rn-222 for hundreds of nuclear power plants wuld not result in any measurable increase in the naturally-occurring levels of Rn-222 which will occur with or without neclear power. (3) Dr. Walter Jordan did not conclude that the XFC staff had j underestimated the deaths to future generations frca the '( effects of Rn-222 by a factor of 100,000. Rather, he 7904270056 pointeo cut that the xRC staff may have uncerestfeated the Df\\ QI \\b ome a e- .......e-o.ve e-NIC FODE-318 (9 76) NRCW 0240

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a. !'r. James Kee effects of Rn-222. Dr. Jordan was c.orrect in that the current NRC staff estimates (see attached affidavits) concluded that the 74.5 curies taken frcIn Table S-3,10 CFR Part 51 of cur regulations ano, as required, used by Dr. Gotcny in his 1977 testimony at THI-2 was low by as mucn.ns a factor of nearly 1,000. Note in Enclosure 5 of attachment 3 the results of extending the staff assessinent to cover potential health effects esti=ates frcn Rn-222 and carten-14 up to 1,000 years into the futi.re. It is interesting to note that Dr. Gotchy's 1977 conclusion that nuclear power was more enviromentally acceptsble (based ori projected premature deaths, injuries and illness) than the c:.al alternative reiains unchanged. Further, pp. IV-15 through IY-20 of attachment 3 also confirm the sare is true when co paring esticated life-shortening associated with both fuel :ycles. I hope we have adequately responded to your concerns at this tLw. Sincerely, /d i Daniel R. Muller, Acting Director Division of Site Safety and Enviromental Analysis Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation

Enclosures:

1. Affidavit of R. M. Wilde 2. Affidavit of P. J. Magno 3. Affidavits of R. L. Gotchy DISTRIBUTION Central File M. Groff RA8 Reading M. Jambor E. Case NRC POR 'V. Stello Local PDR H. Denton SECY Mail Fac (3)--(78-1122) R. Minogue D. Muller R. Vollmer W. Kreger F. Congel G. Ertter (EDO-24278) *SEE OTHER YELLOW FOR PREVIOUS CONCURRENCE $

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Mr. Jaecs Kee effects of Fn-222. Dr. Jorcan was correct in that the current NRC staff estirates (see attached afficavits) concluced that the 74.5 curies used in my 1977 testimony at T}il-2 was Icw by as much as a factor of nearly 1,000. Note in Enclosure 5 of attachrent 3 the results of extending the staff assessment to cover potential health effects esti: ates frort Rn-222 and carbon-14 up to 1,C00 years into the future. It is interesting to note that my 1977 conclusion that nuclear power was more envirorrentally acceptable (based on projected premature deaths, injuries and illness) than the coal alternative renains unchangec. Further, pp. IV-16 through IV-20 of attachnient 3 also confinn the same is true when ccaparing esticated life-shortening associated with both fuel cycles. I hope I have adequately responded to your concerns at this time. If future questions should arise, please feel free to write to ce again. Sincerely, 1 Dr. R. L. Gotchy Senior Radiobio)ogist Radiologica14cpact Section, RAB Division of' Site Safety and Envirofnental Analysis Office'of Nuclear Reactor Regulation \\ DISTRIBUTION

Enclosures:

1. Af fidavit of R. M. Wilde yCentralFile NRC PDR 2. Affidavit of P. J. Magno/ sRAB Reading Local PDR 3. Radiological Icpact of aden-222 tN Case SECY Mail Fac (3) Releases V. Stello (78-1122) H. Denton R. Minogue / D. Muller R. Vollmer W. Kreger F. Congel G. Ertter (ED0-4278) M. Groff M. Jambor RAB:DSET/k,,RAB:DSEk/M$E ~,' / OELD DSE:SA:AD DSE o,,,c. zg 4.v 4. ~._ RGotchy:pc FCongel i _W Ba b Ar RRVollmer DMuller .u.... 3 8/14/78 8// 5/78 8//I/78' 8/4 /78 8/ /78 8/ /78 80 201 o c m u n. <,. m o c u u.o

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