ML19211C026
| ML19211C026 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 01/25/1979 |
| From: | Levine S NRC OFFICE OF NUCLEAR REGULATORY RESEARCH (RES) |
| To: | Harold Denton Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| References | |
| REF-GTECI-A-40, REF-GTECI-SC, TASK-A-40, TASK-OR NUDOCS 8001090067 | |
| Download: ML19211C026 (7) | |
Text
.
t f
~
f UNITED STATES NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION y'j y1
{
1 WASHINGTON, D. C. 20555
/
+...+
JM -
MEMORANDUM FOR: Harold R. Denton, Director Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation FROM:
Saul Levine, Director Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
SUBJECT:
END]RSEMENT OF PROGRAM BRIEF ON SITE SPECIFIC RESPONSE SPECTRA In response to your reo w for funding of the project on Site Specific Response Spectra at the Lawrence Livermore Laboratory, RES has reprogrammed the FY1979 funds to make available the $130K needed.
In accordance with SECY-77-130B, " Procedures for Processing User Office Research Requirements," I am requesting your endorsement of the enclosed program brief.
Please indicate your concurrence by signing in the space provided below and return the original of this memorandum to me.
Saul Levine, Director Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
Enclosure:
as stated cc:
V. Stello, D0R D. G. Eisenhut, D0R D. K. Davis, D0R R. Denise, D0R R. E. Jackson, DSE D. Bunch, DSE L. S. Rubenstein, SD M. Aycock, NRR 1737 029 g g p 10 90 067
...s.
Endorsement:
I agree with the enclosed FY1979 Program Brief entitled, "SEP Site Specific Spectra Project."
4 ate l/f l
//2f Harold R. Denton, Director Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation l
1737 030
FY1979 PROGRAM BRIEF PROGRAM: GENERAL REACTOR SAFETY RESEARCH TITLE:
SEP SITE SPECIFIC SPECTRA PROJECT CONT: FIN CONTRACTOR: LLL SITE:
LIVERMORE STATE: CALIFORNIA PROJECT MANAGER:
G. BAGCHI TECHNICAL MONITOR:
L. REITER PRINCIPAL INVESTIGATOR:
D. L. BERNREUTER OBJECTIVE OF PROGRAM:
TO DEVELOP PROCEDURES FOR THE DETERMINATION OF SITE-SPECIFIC RESPONSE TO EVALUATE THE SEISMIC INPUT PARAMETERS FOR A VARIETY OF NUCLEAR POWER PLANT SITES.
FY1979 SCOPE:
OBLIGATION:
$130K 1737 031 1
g
\\.
Task Description Task No.
1.
Assist NRC in seismic data base definition.
FY 79 Collect seismic data bases not included in the NEIS catalog and add them to the data base.
Perfonn very modest cross-comparison data bases and make only significant corrections. Search the data base of a bias in intensity, such as changing quality of construction.
The FY79 effort is a minimal effort to enhance the credibility of the analysis by developing a data tape which is reasonably complete and correct (at least relative to the larger earthquakes) and to address the question of whether the older intensities are biased on the high side.
Task No.
2.
Assist the NRC in the definition of seismic source regions.
FY 79 Review, in detail, the plausibility of activity on specific structures.
Evaluate the effect of possible systematic errors in the seismic data base on possible alternative zonations.
Review, in particular, the uncertainty in the location and size of the largest historical earthquakes.
The FY79 effort is designed to primarily ensure credibility of the analysis.
Our effort here is very minimal. We feel that we must interact with NRC on the definition of seismic source regions to insure that we have developed the appropriate statistics, etc.
Task No.
3.
Incorporate upper magnitude cut-off methodology.
FY 79 Modify the hazard analysis methodology to formally incorporate the distributions on upper magnitude cut-off. Evaluate the applicability of identifying other similar tectonic provinces elsewhere in the world and using a combined seismic history to analyze for an upper cut-off.
3 6
At the hazard levels of interest (10
-10
),theuppermagnitudecut-off drives the results. The FY79 effort should considerably improve the results in his hazard range. We feel that it is essential that this task be carried out.
1737 032 t
~
k Task No.
4.
Develop / select appropriate attenuation relations.
FY 79 Perform a regression analysis (similar to that perfonned by Bollinger) for a few selected earthquakes in the Cer. tral U.S. and in the Northeast U.S., e.g., the 1811-1812 earthquakes, the 1968 Central Illinois earthciuake.
We hope NRC can assist in defining at least one other earthquake with sufficient data in usable fom for such an analysis.
If feasible, we will include site soil data in the analysis. In addition, we want to evaluate the effect of distance on existing correlations between site intensity and response spectrum shape and a few approaches to try and reduce the uncertainty in the correlations, Uncertainty in the attenuation relaf'on is a ma.ior contributor to the hazard.
The FY79 effort will tighten this uncertainty and will therefore significantly improve the results. This effort coupled with the FY78 effort performed by LLL will provide considerable insight into the choice of appropriate weighting factors in our final Bayesian analysis.
The This is considered to be a very important aspect of our overall program.
only attenuation of intensity with distance relation that has a statistical bases is that by Bollinger for the Charlestown ea'rthquake. His results must be verified for other regions.
It is very important to use a true estimate of the mean and the appropriate value for the dispersion of the data about the mean in the seisraic hazard analysis.
Task No.
5.
Strong Motion Response of Large Industrial Facilities.
FY 79 As suggested by N. M. Newmark, this effort will attempt to relate the lack of damage to large steel complexes where stronggroundmotionhasbeenrecorded(Managua. Japan.
San Fernando....) to their added structural capability.
This effor will assist Dr. Newmark in his analysis of the effective acceleration at each site.
It may in the end be the most significent task of all.
Task No.
6.
Rei.ention of experts and incprporation of their expert opinion.
1737 033
.3 1
FY 79 Retain selected seismologists with particular expertise.
in the te: tonics and seismology of the site areas. A partial candidate list includes:
S. Alegander
-R Herrmann N. Toksoz E. Chiburis Solicit from these experts, with carefully developed questions, information about the statistics of earthquakes, the maximum earthquake, and attenuation relations. Encode this information and include in the Bayesian hazard analysis.
This is an essential ingredient to a proper Bayesian analysis, Will significantly enhance the credibility.
Task No.
7.
Site hazard analysis FY 79 Extend the sensitivity study to include the expert opinions and the results from other FY79 studies.
Prepare a fornal report sunnarizing results.
This is a minimal effort to develop the seismic hazard at each site and include interaction with NRC and the Owner's.
Task No.
8-10. Travel, presentations, communications FY 79 This allows for monthly trips to Washington, b, C, for the required extensive interaction with the NRC.
It also allows for several meetings with the Owner's Group or the individual operators to familiarize them with the program, to solicit their expert opinions, and to discuss preliminary results.
Considering t.2 type of analysis being perforned and the necessary inter-6 actions required, a large travel budget is necessary, 1737 034
MILESTONES SEP SITE SPECIFIC SPECTRA DEC.
MARCH JUNE TASK 78 79 79 1.
Assist NRC in Seismic Data n
Base definition 2.
Assist NRC in definition of n
Seismic Source Regions 3.
Incorporate Upper Magnitude A
Cut-Off Methodology 4
Assist NRC in definition of JL Attenuation Relations 5.
Strong motion response of 2L large industrial facilities 6.
Retention of consultants and JL incorporation of expert opinion 7.
Site hazard analysis including sa reports 1737 035