ML19210A969
| ML19210A969 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Fort Saint Vrain, Crane  |
| Issue date: | 07/03/1967 |
| From: | Shaw M US ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION (AEC) |
| To: | Morris P US ATOMIC ENERGY COMMISSION (AEC) |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 7911010678 | |
| Download: ML19210A969 (5) | |
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I' DATE OF 00CuaENT:
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NCLO5URES:
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a:nents, dated 6-19-67, on Fort St.
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c NITED STATES GOVERNhiENT Memorandum 0
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- Peter A. Morris, Director dam Division of Reactor Licensing FROM
- Milton Shaw, Director k
Division of Reactor Dav$ opment & Technology
SUBJECT:
HAZAP33
SUMMARY
REPORI EDI:NS:S204 Raference is made to the letters of June 2, 1967 and June 6, 1967 from the Division of Reactor Licensing, to the Environmental Science Services Administration requesting comments on the following safety analysis reports respectively:
Fort St. Vrain Nuclear Generating Station Public Service Company of Colorado Application for Construction Permit and Class 104 License Amendment No. 2 dated May 24, 1967 Three Mile Island Nuclear Station Unit 1 Metropolitan Edison Company Preliminary Safety Analysis Report Volumes I, II and III dated June 6,1967 Review by the Environmental Meteorology Branch, Air Resources Laboratory, ESSA, has now been completed and their comments are attached.
Attachments:
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I-Comments on Three Mile Island Nuclear Station Unit 1 Metropolitan Edison Company Preliminary Safety Analysis Report Volumes I,11 and III dated June 6,1967 Prepared by Environmental Meteorology Branch Institute for Atmospheric Sciences June 19, 1967 The Three Mile Island site has an atmospheric dispersion regime that is typical of a narrow river valley with adjacent ridges rising several hundred feet above the river. At Conewago Falls two miles downriver, the valley narrows to a width of 1200 meters with steep slopes on either side. One would expect that under nighttime inversion flow an effluent would flow through and be confined by this gap.
Assuming minimum vertical spreading such that the effluent is spread uniformly in a cross-sectional area 20 m high and 1200 m wide (valley width at 2 miles) and a wind speed of 1 m/sec, the relative concentration would be 4 x 10-5 see m-3, The applicant's diffusion parameters are reasonably conservative.
An assumption of type"F" diffusion, a 1 m/ see wind speed, a ground release and a factor of 3 for added building dilution gives a relative ground concentration of 5 x 10-4 see m-3 at the exclusion distance of 610 m for the first 12 hours1.388889e-4 days <br />0.00333 hours <br />1.984127e-5 weeks <br />4.566e-6 months <br />. This is about an order of magnitude higher than the confinement conditions postulated at 2 miles in the previous paragraph. For long-term dose calculations, the applicant's single sector (22 0) wind direction frequency of over 50%
is conservative despite the f act that inversion flow will tend to be biased toward a particular sector. The 40% calm statistic at Olmsted AFB during the period 1959-1963 is entirely unrealistic and therefore suspect. Poorly maintained or inadequate instrumentation is probably the explanation.
In summary, the site is characterized by a confined valley flow especially duriuc inversion conditions. The assumed diffusion parameters and conditions appear to be conservative.
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4 Comments on Fort St. Vrain Nuclear Generating Station Public Service Company of Colorado Application for Construction Permit and Class 104 License Amendment No. 2 dated May 24, 1967 Prepared by Environmental Meteorology Branch Institute for Atmospheric Sciences June 19,1967 Although the f requency of tornadoes [1] in the Ft. St. Vrain area is less than in the states immediately to the east, it is comparable to the fre-quency in the Mississippi valley region and higher than the frequencies in the eastern portion of the country. There are no comparable statistics with regard to tornado intensity nor does there seem to be any basis to relate tornado intensity to frequency. The report on tornado characteristics given in Appendix 1.8. A of Amendment #2 seems to come to the conclusion that the tornadoes at the site will be less intense because of two reasons,
- 1) less moisture available to provide latent heat energy and 2) suppressing effect of downslope air flow on the east side of the Rocky Mountains.
Undoubtedly on the average there is less available atmospheric moisture in the extreme western high plains but the suppressive effect of downslope winds is opened to serious question.
Climatologically, the belt of maximum hail occurrence as shown on page 730 of reference [2] for the entire United States lies just to the east of the Rocky Mountains and includes the site as well as at least part of the city of Denver.
Some very severe hail storms have occurred in Denver and vicinity as a matter of record [3]. The geographical distribution of hail crop-damage insurance rates [4] again show a nationwide maximum in eastern Colorado from elevations of 3000 feet on the eastern edge to 5000 feet on the western edge. This includes the site. To quote from Harrison and i
Begkwith [4], "there appears to be no reason meteorologically to discount the' significance of the insurance-rate pattern because these actuarial figures are based only partially on climatological statistics (f requencies) anc are set very largely on the basis of hard experience in settling damage claims in different parts of the country over a period of many years".
The latter is indicative of hail intensity.
Hail-producing thunderstorms are considered to be a degree less severe than tornado-producing thunderstorms.
Since a very high f requency of hail-producing thunderstorms occurs in the area under consideration despite the assumed suppressing effect of downslope winds, the question of tornado intensity might be reexamined for the Ft.
St. Vrain area.
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The Dallas tornado of 2 April 1957 has been the subject of many reports concerning m,easurements of tornado wind speeds.
Appendix 1.8. A quotes Hoecker [5] as saying that at an elevation of 70 feet the greatest derived low-level tangential speed for this storm was 122 mph wF::h is then extrapolated f rom Hoecker's data to speeds less than 100 mph at a height of 6 feet above the ground.
gegner [6] discussing the same tornado lists a minimum wind speed 217 mph at the cround derived f rom the overturning of a railroad boxcar. There are many other such tornado wind speeds derived f rom observed surf ace phenomena. Van Tassel [7] in a scratch mark technique estimated a 474 mph speed for the Scottsbluff tornado f rom markings in a cultivated field.
Fujita [8] estimates speeds of 300 mph in the Palm Sunday tornadoes of April 11, 1965 using the scratch mark technique.
In summary, the conclusion (page 1.8.A-13) that maximum wind velocities in severe tornadoes of the Fort St. Vrain region should be assumed less than those found in mid western counterparts does not seem to be supported by the data available in the literature. Numerous reports of surf ace wind speeds in the range from 200 to 500 mph can be found in the literature on tornadoes which includes areas with tornado frequencies similar to that of the Fort St. Vrain area.
References
[1] Thom, H. C. S.,1963: Tornado Probabilities, Monthly Weather Review, 91 (10-12), pp. 730-736.
[2] U. S. Dept. of Agriculture, 1941: Climate and Man, Yearbook of Agriculture, House Document No. 27, 77th. Congress, 1st.
Session, 1248 pp.
[3] Flora, S. D.,1956:
Hailstorms of the United States, University of Oxlahoma Press, 201 pp.
[4] Harrison, H. T. and Beckwith, W. B., 1951:
Studies on the Distribution and Forecasting of Hail in Western United States, Bull of Am. Meteorological Soc., 32 (4), pp. 119-131.
[53 Hoecker, W. H., 1960 :
Wind speed and air flow patterns in the Dallas tornado of April 2, 1957.
Monthly Weather Review, 88 (5),
pp. 167-180.
[6] Segner, E. P.,1960:
Estimates of minimum wind forces causing structural damage.
U. S. Dept. of Ccamerce, Weather Bureau Research Paper #41, The Tornadoes at Dallas, Texas, April 2, 1957, 175 pp.
[73VanTassel,E.L.,1955: The North Platte Valley tornada outbreak of June 27, 1955. Monthly Reather Review, 83 (11), pp. 255-264
[8] Fujita, T.,1966:
Aerial survey of the Palm Sunday tornadoes of April 11, 1965, SMRP Research Paper #49, Dept. of Geophysical Sciences, The University of Chicago, 35 pp.
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