ML19207B055
| ML19207B055 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Crane  |
| Issue date: | 04/10/1979 |
| From: | Rathjens G STATE, DEPT. OF |
| To: | Gilinsky V, Hendrie J, Kennedy R NRC COMMISSION (OCM) |
| Shared Package | |
| ML19207B046 | List: |
| References | |
| FOIA-79-98 NUDOCS 7908230306 | |
| Download: ML19207B055 (4) | |
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Wen kg MEMORANDUM Apri1 10, 1979
'M hf,g pg To-See Distribution From:
S/AS - George Kathjens GL-i5 I did the enclosed for Gerry Smith and,since lll he thought it might be of interest to others, I am passing it along.
DISTRIBUTION:
NRC Commissioners INFCE Management Committee CIA - Mr. Despres DOE - Mr. Deutch OES - Mr. Pickering ACDA - Mr. Van Doren PM - Mr. Humphreys S/P - Mr. Gallucci
Enclosure:
As stated.
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7908230386 W12'd6
[
April 6, 1979 GS --
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Re:
Tentative Thoughts on the Impact of Three
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Mile Island Accident, on INFCE Efforts,Non-El_
proliferation and the Future of Nuclear Power
.T. :..
The first point to be made is that it is too early to say much with confidence.
_It is 1 i kely lhat 1her.e _will _be _.seme._increas.e __in hi concern about the effects of nuclear radiation and this
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will result in some heightened fear about the possible spread in use of nuclear weapons.
It is of interest to note that the levels of radiation that have been observed b
near the plant have already been compared with those pro-duced by Chinese nuclear tests.
One can expect people to argue that the fear and confusion incident to the E
Three Mile Island accident are trivial compared to what we would experience in the event of the use of any nuclear weapons, however limited.
Having said this, it g
is my guess that this will be a transient phenomenon and that within a matter of months it will have little, if any, effect on people's percaptions about the dangers of nuclear war and nuclear proliferation.
(I am assuming here that there will be no large releases of radioactivity during the cool-down and clean-up operations that will be under way in the immediate future.)
The incident will certainly be played for all it is worth by opponents of nuclear power and may turn the tide against nuclear power in some other countries.
The Swedish and German programs are particularly vulnerable and in these countries particularly, nuclear power could be a more significant political issue than it was before the accident.
Almost certainly, this incident will lead to changes in safety regulations, insurance coverage, licensing pro-cedures and the role of the NRC.
This is likely to lead to increases in construction and licensing' time and proba-bly in the outage rates for nuclear plants.
This will lead to further fairly substantial escalation of costs.
This and uncertainties about possible future changes in standards, etc., will almost certainly result in the I b.,g q < y (g sw A.4:, Ad F
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p cancellation of some plants that are now planned or under construction and a reduction in the likelihood of the utilities in this country raking affirmative de-55 cisions about the acquisition of new nuclear plants.
51.
I would guess that at least one or more of the four ven-
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dors of nuclear steam supply systems will get out of
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the business.
Even if there are no analogous changes in
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standards, licensing requirements, etc., in other coun-7.3g tries, the effect of a further diminution in expectations i
of growth of American nuclear power will be felt in other countries.
This, more than the immediate effects of the accident, is likely to result in a lower growth E:
in the industry throughout the world.
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If the foregoing prognostications are correct, the T
nuclear establishments everywhere are likely to feel even more beleaguered than before the event.
As a result, we are likely to see.even more intransigence about changing nuclear policies, particularly in the countries where the balance of pro-and anti-nuclear forces is 1.
closest.
An extreme example is the Federal Republic.
f If the policy there continues to be pro-nuclear, and I think one has to entertain the possibility that it may flip if domestic opposition can make enough of the Three Mile Island incident and our reaction to it, it would be even harder for us than it has been to try to bring the Germans around to acceptance of our views about i
limiting reprocessing,the recycling of plutonium in light water reactors and the internationalization of fuel cycle facilities.
It will be harder to sell nuclear power in some countries that are new or prospective entrants into the business, and this will reduce the likelihood of nuclear fuel cycled being exploited for weapons purposes.
The effect will be small because there is probably an inverse correlation between propensity to make weapons and sensi-tivity to the effect's of the accident.
From a slightly longer term perspective, diminution in prospective growth of nuclear power will make it much harder to make an objective case for early deployment of breeder reactors.
There may be an additional factor in inducing delay in breeder commitments arising from heightened concerns about safety.
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Our credibility as leaders in INFCE will be weakened.
There may be some impetus from others to treat safety and environmental issues more than we have but the likelihood is small since the participants are 55:
virtually all from the nuclear establishment, and they
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will not want the hazards of nuclear power high-lighted.
...::.r If we do not do more than we have, the credibility of the final product will be questioned by those less committed to nuclear power.
There is a question as to whether the U.S.
should push for more attention to safety.
It is late and such an effort would not be well received, but the credibility-of-the-product question bothers me.
n The experience at Three Mile Island is likely to strengthen the case for federal preemption with respect to various aspects of nuclea.: power.
This may make it possible to handle such issues as transportation of spent fuel, its storage and waste disposal more expedi-tiously than if the event had not happened.
It is the only positive thing I can see coming out of the event as far as the industry is concerned.
GR Y31&$9