ML19206B327

Comments on Commissioner Ahearnes 790403 Set of Thoughts on How We Could Possibly Go About TMI Accident Review. Review Must Distinguish Why & What Happened

ML19206B327
Person / Time
Site:	Crane
Issue date:	04/23/1979
From:	Moore R NRC OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND PROGRAM ANALYSIS (MPA)
To:	Haller N NRC OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND PROGRAM ANALYSIS (MPA)
Shared Package
ML19206B328	List: ML19206B327 ML19206B332 ML19206B337
References
NUDOCS 7905090216
Download: ML19206B327 (1)

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5 0 -32 O April 23, 1979, IGD?A*iDUM FOR: Homan M. Haller, ' Director, Office.of.Macagement.acd.........

Program Analysis FROM:

Roger H. Moore, Chief, Applied. Statistics. Branch..MPA....

Si;5 JECT:

REGARDING COMMISSIONER AHEAFJiE.S APRIL.3RD." SET.0E..

THOUGHTS ON.HOW WE COULD POSSIBLY.G0.A30UT.THE.THREE.........

MILE ISLA'!D. ACCIDENT REVIEW" Two cc: plecentary ideas have been. developed ir ASB.regarding the subject.....

Deco:

(1) The review (at least the internal one).must caretully. distinguish.......

between and r.cng (a) wnat narwened,.(b).wby.it haDraned,.(c).what...

can be done to crevent anotnet.one,.(d).wilat.snould.be. cone..and....

(e) wnat are tne colicy.itolicaticus.. Points 4c),.(d).anc (e)....

definitely ao Deyond TNhspecific. issues... WASH,1270.and. WASH-1400....

are two exaE:ples that illustrate the problees.tbat.can.be. generated.......

when technical analysis.and its presentation are. colored.by. policy.....

i::plications.

(2) Tne procedures outlined do not call upon. risk.assesscent technolocy.....

which encomnasses a cuch. broader selection.of. ideas.and tools.tcan.....

were employed in NASH-1400.

In particular, assessment of changes.........

in existing procedures (p. 3).should.be. subjected.to such. effort..

More specifically, was the T!G2. event.a " surprise".in.the. sense.....

that risk assessment methods either. failed.to. identify-the..._..

accident sequence or inappropniately.esticated the prcbabilities.......

and the consequences of-the sequence? All.this is in the spirit..

of the Risk Assessment Review. Group's. findings, of course............

Original signed by

. Roger H. Moore, Chief n.e Applied Statistics Branch

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