ML19183A309

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Hazard Modeling
ML19183A309
Person / Time
Issue date: 07/02/2019
From:
Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
To:
K. Hamburger 415-2022
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Download: ML19183A309 (31)


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Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 High Energy Arcing Faults (HEAF)

Hazard Modeling Gabriel Taylor P.E.

Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research Division of Risk Analysis July 24, 2019

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • Provide overview of modeling

- History

- Types

- Existing models

- Comparisons to measurement Purpose

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 Categories of Electrical Enclosure Failure Mode - Review

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 Highlighted HEAF hazard NRC INFORMATION NOTICE 2002-27 RECENT FIRES AT COMMERCIAL NUCLEAR POWER PLANTS IN THE UNITED STATES https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML0226/ML022630147.pdf Operating Experience San Onofre Nuclear Generating Station, 2001

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 NUREG/CR 6850 forms the basis for nuclear power plant (NPP) Fire PRAs

- Published 2005 This EPRI/NRC working group was the first to explicitly model HEAF events as part of a fire PRA

- The need was identified as part of accident investigation efforts for the development of 6850 & NRCs assessment of energetic faults from 1986-2001

- Timely OpE-San Onofre 2/3/2001 Fire PRA Methodology NUREG/CR-6850 EPRI 1011989 https://www.nrc.gov/readin g-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/contract

/cr6850/

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 NUREG/CR-6850, Appendix M (2005)

Zone of Influence (ZOI) Method largely based on one well documented fire event at San Onofre in 2001 Methodology developed as an expert elicitation

- Observational data and OpE information only

- No test data available

- Currently this model has been used to support NFPA 805 transitions Current Methodology Electrical Enclosures 6

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 HEAF OpE Electrical Enclosure SONGS, 2001 San Onofre; 2001 Onagawa; 2011

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 Current Methodology Bus Ducts NUREG/CR-6850, Supplement 1 Bus duct guidance for high energy arcing faults (FAQ 07-0035)

Methodology developed as an expert elicitation

- Observational data and OpE information only

- No test data available

- Currently this model has been used to support NFPA 805 transitions

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 HEAF OpE Bus Duct Columbia Bus Duct (OpE) 2009 Diablo Canyon Bus Duct (OpE) 2000 Bus Duct Testing 2016

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 Conceptual Modeling Approaches

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • Bounding (Current models)
  • Enclosure, bus ducts
  • Bounding by Categories
  • By power, energy, voltage, fault current, protection scheme, material, safety class
  • Dynamic ZOI
  • Scenario dependent source
  • Target fragility Modeling Approach 11 As presented at 4/18/2018 public workshop

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • Assumes worst case damage for all HEAF

- i.e., one size fits all

- Damage and ignition of components within ZOI

- Peak HRR

  • Least amount of information needed to determine ZOI
  • Least realistic for majority of cases
  • Simple to apply
  • Lowest cost Bounding ZOI (Current Model) 12 As presented at 4/18/2018 public workshop

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • Subdivides equipment by HEAF damaged potential

- Equipment type

- Energy/Power potential

- Protection scheme

- Size, Material, Design, etc.

  • More realistic
  • Requires more information to apply
  • More costly for development and application Refined Bounding ZOI 13 As presented at 4/18/2018 public workshop

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • Requires detailed information on power system
  • Correlation from experiments and theory to model source term and incident flux as a function of distance
  • Requires knowledge of fire PRA target fragility to high heat flux short duration.
  • Potential to provide most realistic results
  • Complex
  • Most costly Dynamic ZOI 14 As presented at 4/18/2018 public workshop

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • No approach has been excluded
  • Understand and evaluation existing and new hazard models
  • Needs to consider development and application efficiencies along with level of realism in a holistically manner to make informed decision on appraoch
  • NRC/EPRI working group advancing PRA modeling methodology Modeling Approach Status

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 Overview of Existing Models

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • Simple geometric configuration

- arc modeled as sphere

  • Heat transfer to predict distance where threshold is exceeded
  • Used available research on human skin / clothing fragility (Stoll / Artz)
  • Conservative due to maximum arc power assumption
  • Used in IEEE 1584-2002 for > 15kV applications Theoretical Lee Model R. Lee, The Other Electrical Hazard: Electric Arc Blast Burns, 1982

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • Output

- IE, incident energy (J/cm2)

  • Inputs

- V, system voltage (kV)

- t, arcing time (seconds)

- Ibf, 3 phase bolted fault current

- D, distance from arc point Theoretical Lees Method ASTM slug T-cap. slug KEMA Daq Physical Measurement R. Lee, The Other Electrical Hazard: Electric Arc Blast Burns, 1982

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 Semi-Empirical Wilkins-Allison-Lang Method Output IE, incident energy Input VLL, line-line voltage V, system voltage Varc, arc voltage Iarc, arc current t, arcing time D, distance from arc point a, enclosure dimension g, gap Ve, electrode voltage ASTM slug T-cap. slug KEMA Daq Physical Measurement Literature R. Wilkins, M. Allison, M. Lang, Improved Method for Arc Flash Hazard Analysis, 2004

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 Semi-empirical Gammon Simplified T. Gammon, J. Matthews, The IEEE 1584-2002 Arc Modeling Debate and Simple Incident Energy Equations for Low-Voltage Systems, 2006 Output IE, incident energy Input MVAsc, short-circuit MVA t, arcing time D, distance from arc point X, configuration factor (IEEE)

IEratioUB, Incident energy rate ratio upper bound (configuration based 0.758 - 2.098)

ASTM slug T-cap. slug KEMA Daq Physical Measurement Literature

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • Output

- EMA,EMB, Max. Incident Energy

  • Input

- F, 3-phase short-circuit current

- tA, tB, arc duration

- DA,DB, distance Empirical - Statistical Doughty - Neal - Floyd ASTM slug T-cap. slug KEMA Daq Physical Measurement R. Doughty, T. Neal, H Floyd, Predicting Incident Energy to Better Manage the Electric Arc Hazard on 600-V Power Distribution System, 2000

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • Model for incident energy calculations
  • Empirically derived model from 300 tests
  • Methodology focused on personal protection

- Arc flash boundary is only applicable to human fragility

- Arc fault current and incident energy are independent of target Empirical - Statistical IEEE 1584 - 2002 IEEE 1584-2002, Guide for Performing Arc-Flash Hazard Calculation, 2002

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 Empirical - Statistical IEEE 1584 - 2002

  • Output

- IE, Incident Energy

  • Input

- V, system voltage

- Ia, arc current

- t, arc duration

- G, conductor gap

- D, distance

- x, distance exponent

- Configuration (open / box)

ASTM slug T-cap. slug KEMA Daq Physical Measurement Literature IEEE 1584-2002, Guide for Performing Arc-Flash Hazard Calculation, 2002

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • Significantly changed from 2002 edition
  • Model for incident energy calculations
  • Empirically derived model from 2,160 tests
  • Five configurations

- VCB, VCBB, HCB, VOA, HOA Empirical - Statistical IEEE 1584 - 2018 IEEE 1584-2018, Guide for Performing Arc-Flash Hazard Calculation, 2018

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • System voltage: 208 to 15,000 Volts
  • Frequency: 50 or 60 Hz
  • Bolted fault current:

- Low Voltage: 500 to 106,000 A

- Med Voltage: 200 to 65,000 A

  • Conductor Gaps:

- Low Voltage: 0.25 to 3 inches

- Med Voltage: 0.75 to 10 inches

  • Target Distances: 12 inches
  • Fault clearing time: no limit IEEE 1584 - 2018 Range of model

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019 Output

- IE, Incident Energy Input

- Ibf, Bolted fault current

- Voc, System voltage

- T, Duration

- D, Distance

- G, Conductor gap

- Enclosure Dimensions

- Equip Configuration Empirical - Statistical IEEE 1584-2018 ASTM slug T-cap. slug KEMA Daq Physical Measurement Literature

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

- Model overpredict max measured incident energy

  • Maximum overprediction : ~11x

- 550 kJ/m2 measured vs. 6,100 kJ/m2 calculated

  • Minimum overprediction : ~2x

- 3.4MJ/m2 measured vs. 6.3MJ/m2

- Note: 2 instruments damaged due to HEAF damage likely higher heat flux at damaged sensors and better agreement with model Model Comparison IEEE 1584 - 2018 vs MV Alum

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

- Model overpredict max measured incident energy

  • Maximum overprediction : ~17x

- 550 kJ/m2 measured vs. 9,100 kJ/m2 calculated

  • Minimum overprediction : ~3x

- 3.4MJ/m2 measured vs. 9.4MJ/m2 calculated

- Note: 2 instruments damaged due to HEAF damage likely higher heat flux at damaged sensors and better agreement with model Model Comparison LEE vs MV Alum

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

- Model overpredict max measured incident energy

  • Maximum overprediction : ~26x

- 236 kJ/m2 measured vs. 6,100 kJ/m2 calculated

  • Minimum overprediction : agreement

- 6.0MJ/m2 measured vs. 6.3MJ/m2 Model Comparison IEEE 1584 - 2018 vs MV Alum

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

- Model overpredict max measured incident energy

  • Maximum overprediction : ~39x

- 236 kJ/m2 measured vs. 9,100 kJ/m2 calculated

  • Minimum overprediction : ~1.6x

- 6.0MJ/m2 measured vs. 9.4MJ/m2 Model Comparison LEE vs MV Alum

Public Meeting - July 24, 2019

  • Follow similar form

- Inverse power relationship with distance to target

  • Supporting test configurations not directly applicable

- Open air or box w/opening

  • Fragility different (human vs equipment)
  • Existing models may be adapted to make representative and realistic.

Wrap-up Existing Models