ML19133A143
| ML19133A143 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 05/10/2019 |
| From: | Tanya Smith Office of Nuclear Security and Incident Response |
| To: | |
| Todd Smith | |
| References | |
| Download: ML19133A143 (22) | |
Text
EP, HP, and Me Baltimore-Washington Health Physics Society Annual Meeting May 10, 2019 Todd Smith, PhD Emergency Preparedness Specialist U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission
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What is Emergency Preparedness?
3 Emergency preparedness is a state of readiness to respond to a potential hazard to protect the health and safety of the public.
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5 Protective Action Strategy
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PAGs - Protective Action Guide (PAG) is the projected dose from unplanned release at which a specific protective action to reduce or avoid dose is recommended
- Used as guidance for triggering appropriate protective actions to minimize dose
- Balances the benefit of dose reduction against the risks of implementing the action PARs - Licensees are required to make a protective action recommendation (PAR)
PADs - The offsite response organization then considers the PAR and makes a protective action decision (PAD)
8 NRC Reflections on Fukushima
NRC Research in Emergency Preparedness 9
10 Why is Health Physics Important to EP?
MACCS What is MACCS?
- MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System
- Probabilistic analysis tool for developing realistic estimates of consequences of nuclear power plant incidents
- Developed by NRC and Sandia National Laboratory
- Extensive use by NRC and domestic and international organizations How is MACCS used?
- Cost-benefit analysis
- Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA)
- Consequence studies
- Risk-informed decision-making 11
MACCS 12 Weather Data Site Data Source Term Dose Conversion Factors Food Chain Data Atmospheric Transport and Dispersion Output Measures Health Effects Land Contamination Economic Costs Displaced Population Emergency Phase Intermediate Phase Long-Term Phase Typical Duration
~ 1 week Weeks to years Months to years Protective Actions Evacuation Sheltering Relocation KI Ingestion Relocation Interdiction Decontamination Condemnation Exposure Pathways Cloudshine Groundshine Inhalation Skin Deposition Groundshine Inhalation of resuspended materials Groundshine Inhalation of resuspended materials Food & water ingestion
Example Gaussian Plume Segment Transport 13
MACCS Emergency Phase Modeling
- Protective actions (evacuation, sheltering, relocation, KI)
- Cohort timeline (general population, schools, special facilities, evacuation tail, shadow evacuees, non-evacuees)
How parameters are informed
- Evacuation time estimate (ETE) studies and traffic simulation codes
- MACCS modeling best practices
- Discussions with state and local authorities 14
Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Study Applied research study to examine topics associated with the modeling and simulation of evacuations and independent verification of the NRCs methodology for ETE development.
Study Areas
- Shadow evacuation analysis
- Distance of evacuation travel
- Manual traffic control
- Determination of variable importance 15
ETE Study 16 Model Comparison EPZ POPULATION MODEL EPZ POPULATION MODEL STATS 0-10 MILE 0-10 MILE 20% SHADOW INTER-SECTIONS MILES OF ROAD LINKS/
CONNECTORS SMALL 0 - 50,000 7500 3000 174 1196 376/863 MEDIUM 50,000 - 200,000 200,000 30,000 449 3313 2645/3846 LARGE
> 200,000 325,000 60,000 974 3712 10605/14719
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ORO Study The NRC seeks to better understand offsite response organization (ORO) capabilities and practices for protective actions in the intermediate phase of emergency response to a nuclear power plant (NPP) incident Study Areas
- Identification of radiological hot spots
- Relaxation of evacuation and relocation orders
- Food condemnation or embargo
- Drinking water safety
- Beyond the 10-mile emergency planning zone (EPZ)
- Notable observations 18
MACCS Potential use of ORO Study Results 19 ORO Study Topics Related MACCS Model Identification of Radiological Hot Spots Early Phase Relocation Models Beyond the 10-Mile EPZ Early Phase Relaxation of Evacuation and Relocation Orders Intermediate Phase Relocation and Habitability Assessment Food Condemnation or Embargo Long-term Phase Agricultural Restrictions Water Long-term Phase Societal Dose Assessment
EP Research The NRC is conducting a number of research studies to inform emergency preparedness regulations or guidance and to assess the impact of EP in reducing consequences Consequence Studies
- Sequoyah SOARCA (includes seismic impact to EP)
- Level 3 Probabilistic Risk Assessment Studies to Inform Regulations or Guidance
- EPZ size methodology of NUREG-0396
- Non-radiological impacts of evacuations
- Technical basis for protective action recommendations (PARs) 20
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22 Reactor technology is advancing, EP and HP are evolving, but the NRCs mission to protect the health and safety of the public remains unchanged