Text

Copy of Risk NRR Cost Comparison V17B Swapped Values
	ML18131A308
Person / Time
Issue date:	05/11/2018
From:	; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To:	;
	Montecalvo M
References
	Download: ML18131A308 (2)
	v • d • e

Copy of Risk NRR Cost Comparison V17B SwappedValues.xls SPAR Cst Cmpr Page 1 of 12 STATUS QUO Costs Contract Expenses Contract Expenses Low High Low High RES support and Contracting Management Resources 840,960 RES support and Contracting Management Resources 545,280 817,920 545,280 817,920 Base Resources (i.e., minimum requirements for the program):

INL User Support Help Desk 250000 500000 250000 500000

SPAR Model Configuration/Quality Control and User Support Help Desk

$500k/year

$500,000 Help desk handles ~ 2 calls/day from SRAs Ensures model version control and maintains INL Website Performs model updates to support specific SDP/ASP activities (~30 models were updated to support a specific analysis in FY2015). These updates are often highly specific to the event/condition that occurred and would also need to be performed for a licensee PRA model

SAPHIRE QA and User Support ~$300k/year

$300,000 Maintain NUREG/BR-0167 QA program User help desk Support SUBTOTAL

$800,000 Resources needed to Support Specific User Enhancements:

Model Updates to Reflect Significant Plant Changes (~12 models/year) - ~$250k

$250,000 Incorporate station blackout EDGs Battery charging generators Significant model upgrades

External Hazard and Fire Models - ~ $400k/year

$400,000 Add NFPA 805 fire modeling Add seismic and high wind model capabilities

SAPHIRE Enhancements ~$300k /year

$300,000 New reporting features and code capabilities

Data Updates (performed every 3 years) - ~$500k (every three years)

$166,667 Upgrade SPAR models to reflect most recent operating data Update model documentation and Plant Risk Information eBooks (PRIBs)

General model cleanup/improvements SUBTOTAL

$1,116,667 TOTAL

$2,757,627 TOTAL

$795,280

$1,317,920

$795,280

$1,317,920 User Expenses User Expenses Cost associated with the NRC's use of the SPAR PRA models Cost associated with the NRC's use of the Licensee PRA models 1.0 X 2 X Inspection program (e.g., significance determination process (SDP) phase 3) 1,323,904 Inspection program (e.g., significance determination process (SDP) phase 3) 1,323,904 2,647,808 1,323,904 2,647,808 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigation program 181,760 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigation program 181,760 363,520 181,760 363,520 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 545,280 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 545,280 1,090,560 545,280 1,090,560 Generic Safety Issues

$181,760 Generic Safety Issues

$181,760

$363,520

$181,760

$363,520 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 272,640 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 272,640 545,280 349,440 698,880 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 0

0 0

TOTAL 2,505,344 TOTAL 2,505,344 5,010,688 2,582,144 5,164,288 Training Training Training (Once a year, 25 hours2.893519e-4 days 0.00694 hours 4.133598e-5 weeks 9.5125e-6 months , 15 seats)

Training on new software Training Contract

$120,000.00 24 Analysts (Each Analyst has 10 plants) (Attendance cost is $2000) (Travel Cost is $3000)

$728,640

$971,520

$121,440

$242,880 P-201 SAPHIRE Basics

$48,000 CAFTA (EPRI)

P-202 Advanced SAPHIRE

$48,000 WinNUPRA (Scientech)

Riskman (ABS Consulting)

Risk Spectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) (May not need)

TOTAL

$216,000 TOTAL

$728,640

$971,520

$121,440

$242,880 Other Costs

$0 Other Costs No Review of Licensee Models 0

1. Review Licensee PRAs (55 different sites) - A typical Level 1 industry peer review takes approximately 75 person/days (5 people for about 3 weeks) 4,224,000 Review updated/revised PRAs (assume 10%/year) 0 422,400

2. Coordinate logistics with industry and staff (1-3 FTE) 181,760 545,280 181,760 545,280 Receive and process submittal (assumes the models will be proprietary)

Create and manage reference library (assumes both digital and hardcopy)

Coordinate review of revised PRA Duplicate and distribute models and software Industry User Groups (software, others)

Provide limited Technical Support to SRAs

3. Guidance Updates: IMCs, RASP Handbook Revisions-Provides for uniformity of assessments -

based on the Standardized SPAR Models (1-3 FTE) 181,760 545,280 18,176 54,528 Cost to setup MOUs (Possibly Through NEI) (1-3 FTE) Licensee (1-3 FTE) 181,760 545,280 181,760 727,040 Software compatibility testing (security) (0.25FTE) 45,440 45,440

4. Software Licenses CAFTA (EPRI) - includes FTREX, actual current cost 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 WinNUPRA (Scientech) - estimated 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 Riskman (ABS Consulting) - estimated 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 RiskSpectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) - estimated (may not be needed) 0 10,000 0

10,000 TOTAL

$0 TOTAL 620,720 5,945,280 411,696 1,789,248 COST

SUMMARY

COST

SUMMARY

TOTAL

$5,478,971 TOTAL

$4,649,984

$13,245,408

$3,910,560

$8,514,336 Qualitative Costs Qualitative Costs Not having access to the licensee's PRA models Having Access to Licenssee's PRA Models Understanding how licensees are making operational decisions NRC's Independent Tool Possible Perceived Lack of Independence Standardization of Models (Nomenclature, Modeling conventions)

Lack of Standardization of Models Increased effort on understanding model differences Reduces the effort on understanding modeling differences Focus updates/development in areas on interest Ease of Model Modification Difficulty of Model Modification Analysts ability to work across models Challenges of working across PRA models (Limits number of experts)

Models CCF and HRA consitently and in line with the NRC's assumptions Will use Licensees CCF and HRA modeling approaches Potentail Cost to the Licensees Potential Need for SECY Ongoing Costs Initial Costs NRC Costs to Use Licensee's PRA Models SPAR Model Expenses

STATUS QUO Costs Low High Low High User Expenses User Expenses Cost associated with the NRC's use of the SPAR PRA models Cost associated with the NRC's use of the Licensee PRA models 1.0 X 2 X Inspection program (e.g., significance determination process (SDP) phase 3) 2,740,895 Inspection program (e.g., significance determination process (SDP) phase 3) 2,740,895 5,481,790 2,740,895 5,481,790 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigation program 376,300 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigation program 376,300 752,600 376,300 752,600 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 1,128,900 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 1,128,900 2,257,800 1,128,900 2,257,800 Generic Safety Issues

$376,300 Generic Safety Issues

$376,300

$752,600

$376,300

$752,600 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 564,450 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 564,450 1,128,900 723,450 1,446,900 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 0

0 0

TOTAL 5,186,845 TOTAL 5,186,845 10,373,690 15,560,535 10,691,690 NOTE: The Licensee would see this amount in their billing. This was calculated with fee billable rate of $265 per hour.

Licensee Reimbursable Fee Results SPAR Model Expenses NRC Costs to Use Licensee's PRA Models Initial Costs Ongoing Costs

Subject:

NRC Labor Rates for Use in FY2016 Regulatory Analyses The hourly and annual rates for the agency and individual offices are provided below.

Agency /

Office Annual Labor Rate Annual Productive Hours Hourly Rate NMSS

$179,000 1420

$126 NRO

$187,000 1420

$132 NRR

$183,000 1420

$129 NSIR

$186,000 1420

$131 Other

$180,000 1420

$127 NRC

$182,000 1420

$128

$128.17 Derivation of Utility PRA Analyst Labor Category (Optional)

CPI inflator: http://www.statista.com/statistics/244993/projected-consumer-price-index-in-the-united-states/

Year CPI Position Title Occupation (SOC code)

Hourly 75th percentile wage 2014 236.736 Technical Staff Nuclear Engineers(172161) 56.55 http://www.bls.gov/oes/current/naics4_221100.htm#11-0000 2017 247.783 Labor Category Mean Wage Rate (A)

Labor Multiplier (B)

CPI-U Inflator (C)

Burdened Hourly mean wage (2015 dollars)

(D = A x B x C)

Technical Staff

$56.55 2.4 1.047

$142.05 NRC Labor Rates for Use in FY2016 Regulatory Analyses (as of October 2015)

Please be advised that the labor rates for use in regulatory analyses have been updated. All new NRC regulatory analyses should use an agency-wide hourly staff rate of $128 and an annual labor rate of $182,000.

All offices use an annual value of 1,420 hours0.00486 days 0.117 hours 6.944444e-4 weeks 1.5981e-4 months in a staff year, which is consistent with the Fiscal Year 2016 (FY2016) budget guidance provided by the Office of the Chief Financial Officer.

Copy of Risk NRR Cost Comparison V17B SwappedValues.xls NRC Data sheet Page 4 of 12 Activity Mean Estimate Initial Mean OnGoing Mean Distribution Initial LOW Initial HIGH OnGoing LOW OnGoing HIGH Source or Basis of Estimate SPAR Model Labor Constants One Full Time Equivalent Cost per Year (Loaded) 171,000 182,000 NRR baselining assumptions One Full Time Equivalent Year (Hours) 1,460 1,420 NRR baselining assumptions Average Labor Rate 117.12 128.00 Calculation: =-(FTE Yrly Cst / Hours per FTE Yr)

Fee Billable Rate 265.00 NRC baselining assumptions Seed for @Risk 1,234.00 Dollar Year 2016 Discount Rate 7%

Alternate Discount Rate 3%

SPAR Model Expenses Contract Expenses RES support and Contracting Management Resources 817,920 Uniform Calculation: =-(Hours per FTE Yr x Ave Labor Rate x 4.5 FTE)

Base Resources (i.e., minimum requirements for the program):

SPAR Model Configuration/Quality Control and User Support Help Desk 500,000 Uniform NRR baselining assumption = approximately $500,000 per year SAPHIRE QA and User Support 300,000 Uniform NRR baselining assumption = approximately $300,000 per year SUBTOTAL 800,000 Resources needed to Support Specific User Enhancements Model Updates to Reflect Significant Plant Changes 250,000 Uniform External Hazard and Fire Models $400k/year - ~ (12 models/year)

20,833.33 External Hazard and Fire Models 400,000 Uniform NRR baselining assumption = ~ $400k/year for 12 models SAPHIRE Enhancements 300,000 Uniform NRR baselining assumption = ~$300k /year Data Updates (performed every 3 years) - ~$500k (every three years) 166,667 Uniform Data Updates (performed every 3 years) - ~$500k (every three years)

SUBTOTAL 1,116,666 Uniform TOTAL CONTRACT EXPENSES 2,734,586 User Expenses Cost associated with the NRC's use of the SPAR PRA models Inspection program (e.g., significance determination process (SDP) phase 3) 1,323,904 Uniform Calculation: = AVERAGE(5493,6535,8658)

Ave Labor Rate

1.5 FTEs Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigation program 181,760 Uniform Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Ave Labor Rate

1 FTEs Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 512,986 Uniform Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Ave Labor Rate

3 FTEs Generic Safety Issues 170,995 Uniform Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Ave Labor Rate

1 FTEs License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 280,320 Uniform Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Ave Labor Rate

1.5 FTEs Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 Uniform Not a user expense associated with SPAR TOTAL USER EXPENSES 2,469,965 Training Training (Once a year, 25 hours2.893519e-4 days 0.00694 hours 4.133598e-5 weeks 9.5125e-6 months , 15 seats)

Training Contract

$120,000 Uniform NRR baselining assumption: Cost of existing contract with INL P-201 SAPHIRE Basics

$48,000 Uniform Calculation: = Ave Labor Rate

25 hours2.893519e-4 days 0.00694 hours 4.133598e-5 weeks 9.5125e-6 months

15 seats P-202 Advanced SAPHIRE

$48,000 Uniform Calculation: = Ave Labor Rate

25 hours2.893519e-4 days 0.00694 hours 4.133598e-5 weeks 9.5125e-6 months

15 seats TOTAL TRAINING EXPENSES 216,000 Other Costs Other Cost Detail 0

Uniform TOTAL OTHER EXPENSES 0

(NRC Status Quo) COST

SUMMARY

SPAR EXPENSES 5,420,551 Licensee Model Expenses Initial Mean OnGoing Mean Distribution Initial LOW Initial HIGH OnGoing LOW OnGoing HIGH Contract Expenses RES support and Contracting Management Resources

$681,600

$681,600 Uniform

$545,280

$817,920

$545,280

$817,920 Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Ave Labor Rate * # FTEs [Low=3, Hi=4.5 FTEs]

INL User Support Help Desk

$375,000

$375,000 Uniform

$250,000

$500,000

$250,000

$500,000 NRR baselining assumption = Low~250,000 to ~ High~500,000 per Yr TOTAL CONTRACT EXPENSES 795,280 1,317,920 795,280 1,317,920 User Expenses 1 X 2 X Cost associated with the NRC's use of the Licensee PRA models Inspection program (e.g., significance determination process (SDP) phase 3)

$4,111,343

$4,111,343 Uniform 2,740,895 5,481,790 2,740,895 5,481,790 Calculation: = AVERAGE(5493,6535,8658)

Fee Billable Rate * # FTEs

Complexity [Low=1.0, Hi=2.0]

Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigation program

$580,350

$580,350 Uniform 386,900 773,800 386,900 773,800 Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Fee Billable Rate * # FTEs

Complexity [Low=1.0, Hi=2.0]

Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program

$769,478

$769,478 Uniform 512,986 1,025,971 512,986 1,025,971 Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Ave Labor Rate * # FTEs

Complexity [Low=1.0, Hi=2.0]

Generic Safety Issues

$256,493

$256,493 Uniform 170,995 341,990 170,995 341,990 Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Ave Labor Rate * # FTEs

Complexity [Low=1.0, Hi=2.0]

License Amendment Reviews (LARs)

$870,525

$1,085,175 Uniform 580,350 1,160,700 723,450 1,446,900 Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Fee Billable Rate * # FTEs

Complexity [Low=1.0, Hi=2.0]

Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI)

$0

$0 Uniform 0

0 0

0 Not a user expense associated with SPAR TOTAL USER EXPENSES 6,588,189 6,802,839 4,392,126 8,784,252 4,535,226 9,070,452 Training Training on new software Number of Analysts for each plant (time and attandence (low 3, high 5) (Each Analyst has 10 plants) (Attendance cost is $2000) (Travel Cost is $3000)

$813,523

$174,326 Uniform 697,306 929,741

$116,218

$232,435 NRC estimates Number of Analysts for each plant (time and attandence [Low=3, High=5] (Each Analyst has 10 plants)

(Attendance cost is $2000) (Travel Cost is $3000)

CAFTA (EPRI)

WinNUPRA (Scientech)

Riskman (ABS Consulting)

Risk Spectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) (May not need)

TOTAL TRAINING EXPENSES 813,523 174,326 697,306 929,741 116,218 232,435 Other Costs No Review of Licensee Models

$0

$0 Uniform 0

0 0

0

1. Review Licensee PRAs (assumes 80 different PRAs) - A typical Level 1 industry peer review takes approximately 75 person/days (5 people for about 3 weeks)

$1,932,480

$0 Uniform 3,864,960 NRC estimates Review Licensee PRAs (assumes 80 different PRAs) - A typical Level 1 industry peer review takes approximately 75 person/days (5 people for about 3 weeks)

Review updated/revised PRAs (assume 10%/year) 0 386,496 0

386,496 NRC estimates review updated/revised PRAs (assume 10%/year)

2. Coordinate logistics with industry and staff

$341,990

$341,990 Uniform 170,995 512,986 170,995 512,986 Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Ave Labor Rate * # FTEs [Low=1, Hi=3 FTEs]

Receive and process submittal (assumes the models will be proprietary)

Create and manage reference library (assumes both digital and hardcopy)

Coordinate review of revised PRA Duplicate and distribute models and software Industry User Groups (software, others)

Provide limited Technical Support to SRAs

3. Guidance Updates: IMCs, RASP Handbook Revisions-Provides for uniformity of assessments -

based on the Standardized SPAR Models

$341,990

$34,199 Uniform 170,995 512,986 17,100 51,299 Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Ave Labor Rate * # FTEs [Low=1, Hi=3 FTEs]

Cost to setup MOUs (Possibly Through NEI)

$341,990

$427,488 Uniform 170,995 512,986 170,995 683,981 Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Ave Labor Rate * # FTEs [Low=1, Hi=3 FTEs]

Software compatibility testing (security)

$42,749

$0 Uniform 42,749 42,749 Calculation: = Hours per FTE Yr

Ave Labor Rate * # FTEs [Low=.25, Hi=.25 FTEs]

4. Software Licenses CAFTA (EPRI) - includes FTREX, actual current cost

$10,000

$10,000 Uniform 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 NRC includes FTREX, actual current cost WinNUPRA (Scientech) - estimated

$10,000

$10,000 Uniform 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 NRC estimate Riskman (ABS Consulting) - estimated

$10,000

$10,000 Uniform 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 NRC estimate RiskSpectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) - estimated (may not be needed)

$5,000

$5,000 Uniform 0

10,000 0

10,000 NRC estimate [Low=0, Hi=10,000]

TOTAL OTHER COSTS EXPENSES 3,036,200 838,677 585,734 5,873,162 389,090 1,674,761 COST

SUMMARY

LICENSEE EXPENSES TOTAL 10,437,912 7,815,843 6,470,446 16,905,074 5,835,813 12,295,568

@RISK Output Results Performed By: Gomez, Antonio Date: Friday, July 15, 2016 6:04:47 PM Name Cell Graph Min Mean Max 5%

95% Errors (NRC Status Quo) COST

SUMMARY

SPAR EXPENSES /

Mean Estimate C48 5,158,389 5,420,551 5,711,872 5,287,080 5,549,923 0

TOTAL /

Initial Mean D111 6,474,914 10,437,910 14,192,950 8,106,401 12,753,260 0

TOTAL /

OnGoing Mean E111 5,491,482 7,815,843 10,131,110 6,450,177 9,188,100 0

Copy of Risk NRR Cost Comparison V17B SwappedValues.xls Undis Page 6 of 12 Year 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Study Year (2016) 0 1

2 3

4 5

6 7

8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 3% Discounting 1.0000 0.9709 0.9426 0.9151 0.8885 0.8626 0.8375 0.8131 0.7894 0.7664 0.7441 0.7224 0.7014 0.6810 0.6611 0.6419 0.6232 0.6050 0.5874 0.5703 7% Discounting 1.0000 0.9346 0.8734 0.8163 0.7629 0.7130 0.6663 0.6227 0.5820 0.5439 0.5083 0.4751 0.4440 0.4150 0.3878 0.3624 0.3387 0.3166 0.2959 0.2765 Group 1: Current SPAR Model Expenses 2019 to 2038 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Contract Expenses RES support and Contracting Management Resources 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 16 358 400

SPAR Model Configuration/Quality Control and User Support Help Desk ~$500k/year 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 10,000,000 SAPHIRE QA and User Support 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 6,000,000 Model Updates to Reflect Significant Plant Changes 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250 000 250 000 250 000 250 000 250 000 250 000 250 000 250 000 250 000 250 000 250 000 250 000 4 999 992 External Hazard and Fire Models 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 400,000 8,000,000 SAPHIRE Enhancements 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 300,000 6,000,000 Data Updates (performed every 3 years) - ~$500k (every three years) 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 166,667 3,333,333 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Contract Expenses 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 2,734,586 54,691,725 User Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Inspection program (e g significance determination proces 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 1,323,904 26,478,080 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigatio 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 181,760 3,635,200 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 10,259,712 Generic Safety Issues 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 3,419,904 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 280 320 5 606 400 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL User Expenses 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 2,469,965 49,399,296 Training 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Training Contract 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 120,000 2,400,000 P-201 SAPHIRE Basics 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 960,000 P-202 Advanced SAPHIRE 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 48,000 960,000 P-302 Risk Assessment in Event Evaluation 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL Training Expenses 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 216,000 4,320,000 Other Costs 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Other Cost Detail 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL Other 0

0 0

COST

SUMMARY

SPAR EXPENSES 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 5,420,551 108,411,021 Contract Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total RES support and Contracting Management Resources 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 545,280 10,905,600 INL User Support Help Desk 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 250,000 5,000,000 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Contract Expenses 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 795,280 15,905,600 User Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Inspection program (e.g., significance determination pro 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 54,817,900 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigat 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 7,738,000 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 10,259,712 Generic Safety Issues 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 3,419,904 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 580 350 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 723 450 14 325 900 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL User Expenses 4,392,126 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 4,535,226 90,561,416 Training 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Number of Analysts for each plant (time and attandence (low 3, high 5) (Each Analyst has 10 plants) (Attendance cost is $2000) (Travel Cost is $3000) 697,306 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 2,905,440 CAFTA (EPRI) 0 0

0 0

0 WinNUPRA (Scientech) 0 0

0 0

0 Riskman (ABS Consulting) 0 Risk Spectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) (May n 0

Plant Specific Training (Low 1 wek per plant, high 2 weeks) 0 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Training Expenses 697,306 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 116,218 2,905,440 Other Costs 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total No Review of Licensee Models 0

0 0

1. Review Licensee PRAs (assumes 80 different PRAs) - A typical Level 1 industry peer review takes approximately 75 person/days (5 people for about 3 weeks) 0 0

0 0

Review updated/revised PRAs (assume 10%/year) 0 0

0 0

2. Coordinate logistics with industry and staff 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 3,419,904 Receive and process submittal (assumes the models will be proprietary)

Create and manage reference library (assumes both digital and hardcopy)

Coordinate review of revised PRA Duplicate and distribute models and software Industry User Groups (software, others)

Provide limited Technical Support to SRAs

3. Guidance Updates: IMCs, RASP Handbook Revisions-Provides for uniformity of assessments - based on the Standardized SPAR Models 170,995 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 17,100 495,886 0

Cost to setup MOUs (Possibly Through NEI) 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 170,995 3,419,904 0

Software compatibility testing (security) 42,749 0

0 0

42,749 0

4. Software Licenses 0

CAFTA (EPRI) - includes FTREX, actual current cost 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 200,000 WinNUPRA (Scientech) - estimated 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 200 000 Riskman (ABS Consulting) - estimated 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 200,000 RiskSpectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) -

estimated (may not be needed) 0 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Other Cost Expenses 585,734 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 389,090 7,978,443 COST

SUMMARY

LICENSEE EXPENSES [INITIAL & ONGOING LOW ESTIMATE ONLY]

TOTAL 6,470,446 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 5,835,813 117,350,899 Contract Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total RES support and Contracting Management Resources 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 817 920 16 358 400 INL User Support Help Desk 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 500,000 10,000,000 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Contract Expenses 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 1,317,920 26,358,400 User Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Inspection program (e.g., significance determination process (SDP) phase 3) 5,481,790 5,481,790 4,111,343 3,289,074 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 2,740,895 62,218,317 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigation program 773,800 773,800 580,350 464,280 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 386,900 8,782,630 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 1,025,971 1,025,971 769,478 615,583 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 11,644,773 Generic Safety Issues 341,990 341,990 256,493 170,995 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 256,493 5,215,354 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 1,160,700 1,446,900 1,085,175 868,140 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 723,450 16,136,115 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 0

0 0

0 Note: Yr1=2, Yr2=1.5, Yr3=1.2. Yr4 on=1.0 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL User Expenses 8,784,252 9,070,452 6,802,839 5,408,072 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 4,620,723 103,997,188 Training 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Number of Analysts for each plant (time and attandence (low 3, high 5) (Each Analyst has 10 plants) (Attendance cost is $2000) (Travel Cost is $3000) 929,741 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 5,346,010 CAFTA (EPRI) 0 0

0 0

0 WinNUPRA (Scientech) 0 0

0 0

0 Riskman (ABS Consulting) 0 0

0 0

Risk Spectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting Sweden) (May n 0

0 0

0 Plant Specific Training (Low 1 wek per plant, high 2 weeks) 0 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Training Expenses 929,741 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 232,435 5,346,010 Other Costs 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total No Review of Licensee Models 0

0 0

1. Review Licensee PRAs (assumes 80 different PRAs) - A typical Level 1 industry peer review takes approximately 75 person/days (5 people for about 3 weeks) 3,864,960 0

0 0

3,864,960 0

0 0

Review updated/revised PRAs (assume 10%/year) 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 386 496 7 729 920 0

0 0

2. Coordinate logistics with industry and staff 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 512,986 10,259,712 Receive and process submittal (assumes the models will be proprietary) 0 0

0 0

Create and manage reference library (assumes both digital and hardcopy) 0 0

0 0

Coordinate review of revised PRA 0

0 0

0 Duplicate and distribute models and software 0

0 0

0 Industry User Groups (software, others) 0 0

0 0

Provide limited Technical Support to SRAs 0

0 0

0

3. Guidance Updates: IMCs, RASP Handbook Revisions-Provides for uniformity of assessments - based on the Standardized SPAR Models 512,986 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 51,299 1,487,658 0

0 0

Cost to setup MOUs (Possibly Through NEI) 512,986 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 683,981 13,508,621 0

0 0

Software compatibility testing (security) 42,749 0

0 0

42,749 0

0 0

4. Software Licenses 0

0 0

CAFTA (EPRI) - includes FTREX, actual current cost 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 10 000 200 000 WinNUPRA (Scientech) - estimated 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 200,000 Riskman (ABS Consulting) - estimated 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 200,000 RiskSpectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) -

estimated (may not be needed) 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 10,000 200,000 SUBOTOTAL Other Cost Expenses 5,873,162 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 1,674,761 37,693,620 COST

SUMMARY

LICENSEE EXPENSES [INITIAL & ONGOING HIGH ESTIMATE ONLY]

TOTAL 16,905,074 12,295,568 10,027,955 8,633,188 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 7,845,840 173,395,218 NRC SPAR Model Expenses Cost (Status Quo)

Licensee Model Expenses [INITIAL & ONGOING LOW ESTIMATE ONLY]

Licensee Model Expenses [INITIAL & ONGOING HIGH ESTIMATE ONLY]

Copy of Risk NRR Cost Comparison V17B SwappedValues.xls 3% Disc Page 7 of 12 Year 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Study Year (2016) 0 1

2 3

4 5

6 7

8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 3% Discounting 1.0000 0.9709 0.9426 0.9151 0.8885 0.8626 0.8375 0.8131 0.7894 0.7664 0.7441 0.7224 0.7014 0.6810 0.6611 0.6419 0.6232 0.6050 0.5874 0.5703 7% Discounting 1.0000 0.9346 0.8734 0.8163 0.7629 0.7130 0.6663 0.6227 0.5820 0.5439 0.5083 0.4751 0.4440 0.4150 0.3878 0.3624 0.3387 0.3166 0.2959 0.2765 Group 1: Current SPAR Model Expenses 2019 to 2038 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Contract Expenses RES support and Contracting Management Resources 817,920 794 097 770 968 748 513 726 711 705 545 684 995 665 044 645 674 626 868 608 609 590 883 573 673 556 964 540 741 524 992 509 701 494 855 480 442 466 448 12 533 642

SPAR Model Configuration/Quality Control and User Support Help Desk ~$500k/year 500,000 485,437 471,298 457,571 444,244 431,304 418,742 406,546 394,705 383,208 372,047 361,211 350,690 340,476 330,559 320,931 311,583 302,508 293,697 285,143 7,661,900 SAPHIRE QA and User Support 300,000 291,262 282,779 274,542 266,546 258,783 251,245 243,927 236,823 229,925 223,228 216,726 210,414 204,285 198,335 192,559 186,950 181,505 176,218 171,086 4,597,140 Model Updates to Reflect Significant Plant Changes 250,000 242,718 235,649 228,785 222,121 215,652 209,371 203,273 197,352 191,604 186,023 180,605 175,345 170,238 165,279 160,465 155,791 151,254 146,848 142,571 3,830,944 External Hazard and Fire Models 400,000 388,350 377,038 366,057 355,395 345,044 334,994 325,237 315,764 306,567 297,638 288,969 280,552 272,381 264,447 256,745 249,267 242,007 234,958 228,114 6,129,520 SAPHIRE Enhancements 300,000 291,262 282,779 274,542 266,546 258,783 251,245 243,927 236,823 229,925 223,228 216,726 210,414 204,285 198,335 192,559 186,950 181,505 176,218 171,086 4,597,140 Data Updates (performed every 3 years) - ~$500k (every three years) 166,667 161,812 157,099 152,524 148,081 143,768 139,581 135,515 131,568 127,736 124,016 120,404 116,897 113,492 110,186 106,977 103,861 100,836 97,899 95,048 2,553,967 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Contract Expenses 2,734,586 2,654,938 2,577,610 2,502,534 2,429,644 2,358,878 2,290,173 2,223,469 2,158,708 2,095,833 2,034,789 1,975,523 1,917,984 1,862,120 1,807,884 1,755,227 1,704,104 1,654,470 1,606,281 1,559,496 41,904,251 User Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Inspection program (e g significance determination proces 1,323,904 1,285,344 1,247,906 1,211,560 1,176,272 1,142,011 1,108,749 1,076,455 1,045,102 1,014,662 985,109 956,416 928,560 901,514 875,257 849,764 825,013 800,984 777,654 755,004 20,287,239 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigatio 181,760 176,466 171,326 166,336 161,491 156,788 152,221 147,788 143,483 139,304 135,247 131,307 127,483 123,770 120,165 116,665 113,267 109,968 106,765 103,655 2,785,254 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 512,986 498,044 483,538 469,454 455,781 442,506 429,617 417,104 404,956 393,161 381,709 370,592 359,798 349,318 339,144 329,266 319,676 310,365 301,325 292,549 7,860,888 Generic Safety Issues 170,995 166,015 161,179 156,485 151,927 147,502 143,206 139,035 134,985 131,054 127,236 123,531 119,933 116,439 113,048 109,755 106,559 103,455 100,442 97,516 2,620,296 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 280,320 272,155 264,228 256,533 249,061 241,806 234,764 227,926 221,287 214,842 208,584 202,509 196,611 190,884 185,325 179,927 174,686 169,598 164,658 159,863 4,295,567 Performance indicators verification (e g MSPI) 0 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL User Expenses 2,469,965 2,398,024 2,328,179 2,260,368 2,194,532 2,130,613 2,068,557 2,008,307 1,949,813 1,893,022 1,837,886 1,784,355 1,732,384 1,681,926 1,632,938 1,585,376 1,539,200 1,494,369 1,450,844 1,408,586 37,849,244 Training 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Training Contract 120,000 116,505 113,112 109,817 106,618 103,513 100,498 97,571 94,729 91,970 89,291 86,691 84,166 81,714 79,334 77,023 74,780 72,602 70,487 68,434 1,838,856 P-201 SAPHIRE Basics 48,000 46,602 45,245 43,927 42,647 41,405 40,199 39,028 37,892 36,788 35,717 34,676 33,666 32,686 31,734 30,809 29,912 29,041 28,195 27,374 735,542 P-202 Advanced SAPHIRE 48,000 46,602 45,245 43,927 42,647 41,405 40,199 39,028 37,892 36,788 35,717 34,676 33,666 32,686 31,734 30,809 29,912 29,041 28,195 27,374 735,542 P-302 Risk Assessment in Event Evaluation 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL Training Expenses 216,000 209,709 203,601 197,671 191,913 186,323 180,897 175,628 170,512 165,546 160,724 156,043 151,498 147,085 142,801 138,642 134,604 130,684 126,877 123,182 3,309,941 Other Costs 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Other Cost Detail 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL Other 0

0 0

COST

SUMMARY

SPAR EXPENSES-3% Dis 5,420,551 5,262,671 5,109,389 4,960,572 4,816,089 4,675,815 4,539,626 4,407,404 4,279,033 4,154,401 4,033,399 3,915,921 3,801,865 3,691,132 3,583,623 3,479,245 3,377,908 3,279,523 3,184,002 3,091,265 83,063,436 Contract Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total RES support and Contracting Management Resources 545,280 529,398 513,979 499,008 484,474 470,363 456,663 443,363 430,449 417,912 405,740 393,922 382,448 371,309 360,494 349,994 339,800 329,903 320,295 310,966 8,355,761 INL User Support Help Desk 250,000 242,718 235,649 228,785 222,122 215,652 209,371 203,273 197,352 191,604 186,023 180,605 175,345 170,238 165,279 160,465 155,792 151,254 146,849 142,572 3,830,950 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Contract Expenses 795,280 772,117 749,628 727,794 706,596 686,016 666,034 646,635 627,801 609,516 591,763 574,527 557,793 541,547 525,774 510,460 495,592 481,157 467,143 453,537 12,186,711 User Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Inspection program (e.g., significance determination pro 2,740,895 2,661,063 2,583,556 2,508,307 2,435,250 2,364,320 2,295,456 2,228,598 2,163,688 2,100,668 2,039,483 1,980,081 1,922,409 1,866,416 1,812,054 1,759,276 1,708,035 1,658,287 1,609,987 1,563,094 42,000,924 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigat 386,900 375,631 364,690 354,068 343,756 333,743 324,023 314,585 305,422 296,527 287,890 279,505 271,364 263,460 255,786 248,336 241,103 234,081 227,263 220,644 5,928,778 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 512,986 498,044 483,538 469,454 455,781 442,506 429,617 417,104 404,956 393,161 381,709 370,592 359,798 349,318 339,144 329,266 319,676 310,365 301,325 292,549 7,860,888 Generic Safety Issues 170,995 166,015 161,179 156,485 151,927 147,502 143,206 139,035 134,985 131,054 127,236 123,531 119,933 116,439 113,048 109,755 106,559 103,455 100,442 97,516 2,620,296 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 580,350 702 379 681 921 662 059 642 776 624 054 605 878 588 231 571 098 554 464 538 315 522 636 507 413 492 634 478 286 464 355 450 830 437 699 424 951 412 573 10 942 902 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL User Expenses 4,392,126 4,403,132 4,274,885 4,150,374 4,029,489 3,912,126 3,798,180 3,687,554 3,580,149 3,475,873 3,374,634 3,276,344 3,180,916 3,088,268 2,998,319 2,910,989 2,826,203 2,743,886 2,663,967 2,586,376 69,353,789 Training 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Number of Analysts for each plant (time and attandence (low 3, high 5) (Each Analyst has 10 plants) (Attendance cost is $2000) (Travel Cost is $3000) 697,306 112,833 109,546 106,356 103,258 100,250 97,330 94,496 91,743 89,071 86,477 83,958 81,513 79,139 76,834 74,596 72,423 70,314 68,266 66,277 2,361,983 CAFTA (EPRI) 0 0

0 0

0 WinNUPRA (Scientech) 0 0

0 0

0 Riskman (ABS Consulting) 0 Risk Spectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting Sweden) (May n 0

Plant Specific Training (Low 1 wek per plant, high 2 weeks) 0 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Training Expenses 697,306 112,833 109,546 106,356 103,258 100,250 97,330 94,496 91,743 89,071 86,477 83,958 81,513 79,139 76,834 74,596 72,423 70,314 68,266 66,277 2,361,983 Other Costs 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total No Review of Licensee Models 0

0 0

1. Review Licensee PRAs (assumes 80 different PRAs) - A typical Level 1 industry peer review takes approximately 75 person/days (5 people for about 3 weeks) 0 0

0 0

Review updated/revised PRAs (assume 10%/year) 0 0

0 0

2. Coordinate logistics with industry and staff 170,995 166,015 161,179 156,485 151,927 147,502 143,206 139,035 134,985 131,054 127,236 123,531 119,933 116,439 113,048 109,755 106,559 103,455 100,442 97,516 2,620,296 Receive and process submittal (assumes the models will be proprietary)

Create and manage reference library (assumes both digital and hardcopy)

Coordinate review of revised PRA Duplicate and distribute models and software Industry User Groups (software, others)

Provide limited Technical Support to SRAs

3. Guidance Updates: IMCs, RASP Handbook Revisions-Provides for uniformity of assessments - based on the Standardized SPAR Models 170,995 16,601 16,118 15,648 15,193 14,750 14,321 13,903 13,499 13,105 12,724 12,353 11,993 11,644 11,305 10,976 10,656 10,345 10,044 9,752 415,925 0

Cost to setup MOUs (Possibly Through NEI) 170,995 166,015 161,179 156,485 151,927 147,502 143,206 139,035 134,985 131,054 127,236 123,531 119,933 116,439 113,048 109,755 106,559 103,455 100,442 97,516 2,620,296 0

Software compatibility testing (security) 42,749 0

0 0

42,749 0

4. Software Licenses 0

CAFTA (EPRI) - includes FTREX, actual current cost 10 000 9 709 9 426 9 151 8 885 8 626 8 375 8 131 7 894 7 664 7 441 7 224 7 014 6 810 6 611 6 419 6 232 6 050 5 874 5 703 153 238 WinNUPRA (Scientech) - estimated 10,000 9,709 9,426 9,151 8,885 8,626 8,375 8,131 7,894 7,664 7,441 7,224 7 014 6 810 6 611 6 419 6 232 6 050 5 874 5 703 153 238 Riskman (ABS Consulting) - estimated 10,000 9,709 9,426 9,151 8,885 8,626 8,375 8,131 7,894 7,664 7,441 7,224 7,014 6,810 6,611 6,419 6,232 6,050 5,874 5,703 153,238 RiskSpectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) -

estimated (may not be needed) 0 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Other Cost Expenses 585,734 377,757 366,755 356,072 345,701 335,632 325,857 316,366 307,151 298,205 289,519 281,087 272,900 264,951 257,234 249,742 242,468 235,406 228,549 221,893 6,158,980 COST

SUMMARY

LICENSEE EXPENSES [INITIAL & ONGOING LOW ESTIMATE ONLY]-3% Disc TOTAL3% Disc 6,470,446 5,665,838 5,500,814 5,340,596 5,185,045 5,034,024 4,887,402 4,745,050 4,606,845 4,472,665 4,342,393 4,215,916 4,093,122 3,973,905 3,858,160 3,745,787 3,636,686 3,530,763 3,427,925 3,328,083 90,061,463 Contract Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total RES support and Contracting Management Resources 817,920 794,097 770,968 748,513 726,711 705,545 684,995 665,044 645,674 626,868 608,609 590,883 573,673 556,964 540,741 524,992 509,701 494,855 480,442 466,448 12,533,642 INL User Support Help Desk 500,000 485,437 471,298 457,571 444,244 431,304 418,742 406,546 394,705 383,208 372,047 361,211 350,690 340,476 330,559 320,931 311,583 302,508 293,697 285,143 7,661,900 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Contract Expenses 1,317,920 1,279,534 1,242,266 1,206,083 1,170,955 1,136,849 1,103,737 1,071,590 1,040,378 1,010,076 980,656 952,093 924,363 897,439 871,300 845,923 821,284 797,363 774,139 751,591 20,195,541 User Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Inspection program (e.g., significance determination process (SDP) phase 3) 5,481,790 5,322,126 3,875,335 3,009,969 2,435,250 2,364,320 2,295,456 2,228,598 2,163,688 2,100,668 2,039,483 1,980,081 1,922,409 1,866,416 1,812,054 1,759,276 1,708,035 1,658,287 1,609,987 1,563,094 49,196,322 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigation program 773,800 751,262 547,036 424,882 343,756 333,743 324,023 314,585 305,422 296,527 287,890 279,505 271,364 263,460 255,786 248,336 241,103 234,081 227,263 220,644 6,944,468 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 1,025,971 996,089 725,307 563,345 455,781 442,506 429,617 417,104 404,956 393,161 381,709 370,592 359,798 349,318 339,144 329,266 319,676 310,365 301,325 292,549 9,207,578 Generic Safety Issues 341,990 332,030 241,769 156,485 227,891 221,253 214,809 208,552 202,478 196,580 190,855 185,296 179,899 174,659 169,572 164,633 159,838 155,182 150,662 146,274 4,020,707 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 1,160,700 1,404,757 1,022,882 794,471 642,776 624,054 605,878 588,231 571,098 554,464 538,315 522,636 507,413 492,634 478,286 464,355 450,830 437,699 424,951 412,573 12,699,003 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 0

0 0

0 Note: Yr1=2, Yr2=1.5, Yr3=1.2. Yr4 on=1.0 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL User Expenses 8,784,252 8,806,264 6,412,328 4,949,152 4,105,453 3,985,877 3,869,783 3,757,071 3,647,642 3,541,400 3,438,252 3,338,109 3,240,882 3,146,488 3,054,843 2,965,867 2,879,482 2,795,614 2,714,188 2,635,134 82,068,078 Training 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Number of Analysts for each plant (time and attandence (low 3, high 5) (Each Analyst has 10 plants) (Attendance cost is $2000) (Travel Cost is $3000) 929,741 225,665 219,092 212,711 206,516 200,501 194,661 188,991 183,486 178,142 172,954 167,916 163,025 158,277 153,667 149,191 144,846 140,627 136,531 132,555 4,259,096 CAFTA (EPRI) 0 0

0 0

0 WinNUPRA (Scientech) 0 0

0 0

0 Riskman (ABS Consulting) 0 0

0 0

Risk Spectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) (May n 0

0 0

0 Plant Specific Training (Low 1 wek per plant, high 2 weeks) 0 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Training Expenses 929,741 225,665 219,092 212,711 206,516 200,501 194,661 188,991 183,486 178,142 172,954 167,916 163,025 158,277 153,667 149,191 144,846 140,627 136,531 132,555 4,259,096 Other Costs 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total No Review of Licensee Models 0

0 0

1. Review Licensee PRAs (assumes 80 different PRAs) - A typical Level 1 industry peer review takes approximately 75 person/days (5 people for about 3 weeks) 3,864,960 0

0 0

3,864,960 0

0 0

Review updated/revised PRAs (assume 10%/year) 386,496 375,239 364,310 353,699 343,397 333,395 323,684 314,257 305,104 296,217 287,589 279,213 271,081 263,185 255,519 248,077 240,852 233,836 227,026 220,413 5,922,587 0

0 0

2. Coordinate logistics with industry and staff 512 986 498 044 483 538 469 454 455 781 442 506 429 617 417 104 404 956 393 161 381 709 370 592 359 798 349 318 339 144 329 266 319 676 310 365 301 325 292 549 7 860 888 Receive and process submittal (assumes the models will be proprietary) 0 0

0 0

Create and manage reference library (assumes both digital and hardcopy) 0 0

0 0

Coordinate review of revised PRA 0

0 0

0 Duplicate and distribute models and software 0

0 0

0 Industry User Groups (software, others) 0 0

0 0

Provide limited Technical Support to SRAs 0

0 0

0

3. Guidance Updates: IMCs, RASP Handbook Revisions-Provides for uniformity of assessments - based on the Standardized SPAR Models 512,986 49,804 48,354 46,945 45,578 44,251 42,962 41,710 40,496 39,316 38,171 37,059 35,980 34,932 33,914 32,927 31,968 31,036 30,132 29,255 1,247,776 0

0 0

Cost to setup MOUs (Possibly Through NEI) 512,986 664,059 644,718 625,939 607,708 590,008 572,823 556,139 539,941 524,214 508,946 494,122 479,730 465,758 452,192 439,021 426,234 413,820 401,767 390,065 10,310,189 0

0 0

Software compatibility testing (security) 42,749 0

0 0

42,749 0

0 0

4. Software Licenses 0

0 0

CAFTA (EPRI) - includes FTREX, actual current cost 10 000 9,709 9,426 9,151 8,885 8,626 8,375 8,131 7,894 7,664 7,441 7,224 7,014 6,810 6,611 6,419 6,232 6,050 5,874 5,703 153,238 WinNUPRA (Scientech) - estimated 10,000 9,709 9,426 9,151 8,885 8,626 8,375 8,131 7,894 7,664 7,441 7,224 7,014 6,810 6,611 6,419 6,232 6,050 5,874 5,703 153,238 Riskman (ABS Consulting) - estimated 10 000 9 709 9 426 9 151 8 885 8 626 8 375 8 131 7 894 7 664 7 441 7 224 7 014 6 810 6 611 6 419 6 232 6 050 5 874 5 703 153 238 RiskSpectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) -

estimated (may not be needed) 10,000 9,709 9,426 9,151 8,885 8,626 8,375 8,131 7,894 7,664 7,441 7,224 7,014 6,810 6,611 6,419 6,232 6,050 5,874 5,703 153,238 SUBOTOTAL Other Cost Expenses 5,873,162 1,625,982 1,578,623 1,532,644 1,488,003 1,444,664 1,402,586 1,361,734 1,322,072 1,283,565 1,246,179 1,209,883 1,174,644 1,140,431 1,107,214 1,074,965 1,043,656 1,013,258 983,746 955,093 29,862,101 COST

SUMMARY

LICENSEE EXPENSES [INITIAL & ONGOING HIGH ESTIMATE ONLY]-3% Disc TOTAL-3% Disc 16,905,074 11,937,444 9,452,309 7,900,590 6,970,927 6,767,890 6,570,767 6,379,386 6,193,578 6,013,183 5,838,041 5,668,001 5,502,914 5,342,635 5,187,024 5,035,946 4,889,268 4,746,862 4,608,604 4,474,373 136,384,817 3% Discounting: NRC SPAR Model Expenses Cost (Status Quo) 3% Discounting: Licensee Model Expenses [INITIAL & ONGOING LOW ESTIMATE ONLY]

3% Discounting: Licensee Model Expenses [INITIAL & ONGOING HIGH ESTIMATE ONLY]

Copy of Risk NRR Cost Comparison V17B SwappedValues.xls 7% Disc Page 8 of 12 Year 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Study Year (2016) 0 1

2 3

4 5

6 7

8 9

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 7% Discounting 1.0000 0.9346 0.8734 0.8163 0.7629 0.7130 0.6663 0.6227 0.5820 0.5439 0.5083 0.4751 0.4440 0.4150 0.3878 0.3624 0.3387 0.3166 0.2959 0.2765 3% Discounting 1.0000 0.9709 0.9426 0.9151 0.8885 0.8626 0.8375 0.8131 0.7894 0.7664 0.7441 0.7224 0.7014 0.6810 0.6611 0.6419 0.6232 0.6050 0.5874 0.5703 Group 1: Current SPAR Model Expenses 2019 to 2038 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Contract Expenses RES support and Contracting Management Resources 817,920 764,411 714,403 667,666 623,987 583,166 545,015 509,359 476,037 444,894 415,789 388,588 363,166 339,408 317,203 296,452 277,058 258,933 241,993 226,162 9,271,610

SPAR Model Configuration/Quality Control and User Support Help Desk ~$500k/year 500,000 467,290 436,719 408,149 381,448 356,493 333,171 311,375 291,005 271,967 254,175 237,546 222,006 207,482 193,909 181,223 169,367 158,287 147,932 138,254 5,667,798 SAPHIRE QA and User Support 300 000 280 374 262 032 244 889 228 869 213 896 199 903 186 825 174,603 163,180 152,505 142,528 133,204 124,489 116,345 108,734 101,620 94,972 88,759 82,952 3,400,679 Model Updates to Reflect Significant Plant Changes 250 000 233 644 218 359 204 074 190 723 178 246 166 585 155 687 145 502 135 983 127 087 118 773 111 003 103 741 96 954 90 611 84 684 79 143 73 966 69 127 2 833 894 External Hazard and Fire Models 400,000 373,832 349,375 326,519 305,158 285,194 266,537 249,100 232,804 217,573 203,340 190,037 177,605 165,986 155,127 144,978 135,494 126,630 118,346 110,603 4,534,238 SAPHIRE Enhancements 300,000 280,374 262,032 244,889 228,869 213,896 199,903 186,825 174,603 163,180 152,505 142,528 133,204 124,489 116,345 108,734 101,620 94,972 88,759 82,952 3,400,679 Data Updates (performed every 3 years) - ~$500k (every three years) 166,667 155,763 145,573 136,050 127,149 118,831 111,057 103,792 97,002 90,656 84,725 79,182 74,002 69,161 64,636 60,408 56,456 52,762 49,311 46,085 1,889,266 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Contract Expenses 2,734,586 2,555,688 2,388,494 2,232,237 2,086,203 1,949,722 1,822,170 1,702,963 1,591,554 1,487,434 1,390,125 1,299,182 1,214,189 1,134,756 1,060,520 991,140 926,299 865,700 809,065 756,136 30,998,163 User Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Inspection program (e.g., significance determination pro 1 323 904 1 237 293 1 156 349 1 080 700 1 010 000 943 925 882 173 824 461 770 524 720 116 673 006 628 977 587 829 549 373 513 433 479 844 448 452 419 114 391 695 366 070 15 007 240 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investiga 181,760 169,869 158,756 148,370 138,664 129,592 121,114 113,191 105,786 98,865 92,398 86,353 80,704 75,424 70,490 65,878 61,568 57,541 53,776 50,258 2,060,358 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 512,986 479,426 448 061 418 749 391 354 365 752 341 824 319 462 298,562 279,030 260,776 243,716 227,772 212,871 198,945 185,930 173,766 162,398 151,774 141,845 5,814,997 Generic Safety Issues 170 995 159 809 149 354 139 583 130 451 121 917 113 941 106 487 99 521 93 010 86 925 81 239 75 924 70 957 66 315 61 977 57 922 54 133 50 591 47 282 1 938 332 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 280,320 261,981 244,842 228,825 213,855 199,864 186,789 174,569 163,149 152,476 142,500 133,178 124,465 116,323 108,713 101,601 94,954 88,742 82,937 77,511 3,177,594 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL User Expenses 2,469,965 2,308,378 2,157,363 2,016,227 1,884,324 1,761,051 1,645,842 1,538,170 1,437,542 1,343,497 1,255,605 1,173,462 1,096,694 1,024,948 957,895 895,229 836,663 781,928 730,773 682,966 27,998,521 Training 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Training Contract 120 000 112 150 104 813 97 956 91 547 85 558 79 961 74 730 69 841 65 272 61 002 57 011 53 281 49 796 46 538 43 494 40 648 37 989 35 504 33 181 1 360 271 P-201 SAPHIRE Basics 48,000 44,860 41,925 39,182 36,619 34,223 31,984 29,892 27,936 26,109 24,401 22,804 21,313 19,918 18,615 17,397 16,259 15,196 14,201 13,272 544,109 P-202 Advanced SAPHIRE 48 000 44 860 41 925 39 182 36 619 34 223 31 984 29 892 27 936 26 109 24 401 22 804 21 313 19 918 18 615 17 397 16 259 15 196 14 201 13 272 544 109 P-302 Risk Assessment in Event Evaluation 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL Training Expenses 216,000 201,869 188,663 176,320 164,785 154,005 143,930 134,514 125,714 117,490 109,803 102,620 95,907 89,632 83,769 78,288 73,167 68,380 63,907 59,726 2,448,489 Other Costs 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Other Cost Detail 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL Other 0

0 0

COST

SUMMARY

SPAR EXPENSES-7% Disc 5,420,551 5,065,936 4,734,519 4,424,784 4,135,312 3,864,778 3,611,942 3,375,647 3,154,810 2,948,421 2,755,533 2,575,265 2,406,789 2,249,336 2,102,183 1,964,657 1,836,128 1,716,008 1,603,745 1,498,828 61,445,173 Contract Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total RES support and Contracting Management Resources 545,280 509,607 476,269 445,111 415,992 388,777 363,343 339,573 317,358 296,596 277,193 259,059 242,111 226,272 211,469 197,635 184,705 172,622 161,329 150,774 6,181,073 INL User Support Help Desk 250,000 233,645 218,360 204,074 190,724 178,247 166,586 155,687 145,502 135,983 127,087 118,773 111,003 103,741 96,954 90,612 84,684 79,144 73,966 69,127 2,833,899 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Contract Expenses 795,280 743,252 694,628 649,185 606,715 567,024 529,929 495,260 462,860 432,580 404,280 377,832 353,114 330,013 308,423 288,246 269,389 251,765 235,295 219,902 9,014,972 User Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Inspection program (e.g., significance determination 2 740 895 2 561 584 2 394 004 2 237 387 2 091 016 1 954 220 1 826 374 1 706 892 1 595 226 1 490 865 1 393 332 1 302 179 1 216 990 1 137 374 1 062 966 993 426 928 436 867 697 810 932 757 880 31 069 676 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident invest 386 900 361 589 337 933 315 826 295 164 275 854 257 808 240 942 225 179 210 448 196 680 183 813 171 788 160 550 150 046 140 230 131 056 122 483 114 470 106 981 4 385 742 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 512,986 479,426 448,061 418,749 391,354 365,752 341,824 319,462 298,562 279,030 260,776 243,716 227,772 212,871 198,945 185,930 173,766 162,398 151,774 141,845 5,814,997 Generic Safety Issues 170,995 159 809 149 354 139 583 130 451 121 917 113 941 106 487 99 521 93 010 86 925 81 239 75 924 70 957 66 315 61 977 57 922 54 133 50 591 47 282 1 938 332 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 580 350 676 121 631 889 590 551 551 917 515 810 482 065 450 528 421 054 393 509 367 765 343 706 321 220 300 206 280 566 262 212 245 058 229 026 214 043 200 040 8 057 636 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL User Expenses 4,392,126 4,238,529 3,961,242 3,702,095 3,459,902 3,233,553 3,022,012 2,824,311 2,639,543 2,466,862 2,305,479 2,154,653 2,013,694 1,881,957 1,758,839 1,643,775 1,536,238 1,435,736 1,341,810 1,254,028 51,266,384 Training 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Number of Analysts for each plant (time and attandence (low 3, high 5) (Each Analyst has 10 plants)

(Attendance cost is $2000) (Travel Cost is $3000) 697,306 108,615 101,509 94,868 88,662 82,862 77,441 72,374 67,640 63,215 59,079 55,214 51,602 48,226 45,071 42,123 39,367 36,792 34,385 32,135 1,898,484 CAFTA (EPRI) 0 0

0 0

0 WinNUPRA (Scientech) 0 0

0 0

0 Riskman (ABS Consulting) 0 Risk Spectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) (M 0

Plant Specific Training (Low 1 wek per plant high 2 weeks 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL Training Expenses 697,306 108,615 101,509 94,868 88,662 82,862 77,441 72,374 67,640 63,215 59,079 55,214 51,602 48,226 45,071 42,123 39,367 36,792 34,385 32,135 1,898,484 Other Costs 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total No Review of Licensee Models 0

0 0

1. Review Licensee PRAs (assumes 80 different PRAs) - A typical Level 1 industry peer review takes approximately 75 person/days (5 people for about 3 weeks) 0 0

0 0

Review updated/revised PRAs (assume 10%/year) 0 0

0 0

2. Coordinate logistics with industry and staff 170 995 159 809 149 354 139 583 130 451 121 917 113 941 106 487 99 521 93 010 86 925 81 239 75 924 70 957 66 315 61 977 57 922 54 133 50 591 47 282 1 938 332 Receive and process submittal (assumes the models will be proprietary)

Create and manage reference library (assumes both digital and hardcopy)

Coordinate review of revised PRA Duplicate and distribute models and software Industry User Groups (software, others)

Provide limited Technical Support to SRAs

3. Guidance Updates: IMCs, RASP Handbook Revisions-Provides for uniformity of assessments - based on the Standardized SPAR Models 170,995 15,981 14,935 13,958 13,045 12,192 11,394 10,649 9,952 9,301 8,693 8,124 7,592 7,096 6,631 6,198 5,792 5,413 5,059 4,728 347,729 0

Cost to setup MOUs (Possibly Through NEI) 170 995 159 809 149 354 139 583 130 451 121 917 113 941 106 487 99 521 93 010 86 925 81 239 75 924 70 957 66 315 61 977 57 922 54 133 50,591 47,282 1,938,332 0

Software compatibility testing (security) 42,749 0

0 0

42,749 0

4. Software Licenses 0

CAFTA (EPRI) - includes FTREX, actual current cost 10 000 9 346 8 734 8 163 7 629 7 130 6 663 6 227 5 820 5 439 5 083 4 751 4 440 4 150 3 878 3 624 3 387 3 166 2 959 2 765 113 356 WinNUPRA (Scientech) - estimated 10,000 9,346 8,734 8,163 7,629 7,130 6,663 6,227 5,820 5,439 5,083 4,751 4,440 4,150 3,878 3,624 3,387 3,166 2,959 2,765 113,356 Riskman (ABS Consulting) - estimated 10,000 9,346 8,734 8,163 7,629 7,130 6,663 6,227 5,820 5,439 5,083 4 751 4 440 4 150 3 878 3 624 3 387 3 166 2 959 2 765 113 356 RiskSpectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) -

estimated (may not be needed) 0 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Other Cost Expenses 585,734 363,635 339,846 317,613 296,835 277,416 259,267 242,306 226,454 211,639 197,794 184,854 172,761 161,458 150,896 141,024 131,798 123,176 115,118 107,587 4,607,210 COST

SUMMARY

LICENSEE EXPENSES [INITIAL & ONGOING LOW ESTIMATE ONLY]-7% Disc TOTAL 7% Disc 6,470,446 5,454,031 5,097,225 4,763,762 4,452,114 4,160,854 3,888,649 3,634,251 3,396,496 3,174,296 2,966,632 2,772,553 2,591,171 2,421,655 2,263,229 2,115,167 1,976,792 1,847,469 1,726,607 1,613,651 66,787,050 Contract Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total RES support and Contracting Management Resources 817,920 764,411 714,403 667,666 623,987 583,166 545,015 509,359 476,037 444,894 415,789 388,588 363,166 339,408 317,203 296,452 277,058 258,933 241,993 226,162 9,271,610 INL User Support Help Desk 500,000 467,290 436,719 408,149 381,448 356,493 333,171 311,375 291,005 271,967 254,175 237,546 222,006 207,482 193,909 181,223 169,367 158,287 147,932 138,254 5,667,798 0

0 0

0 SUBOTOTAL Contract Expenses 1,317,920 1,231,701 1,151,122 1,075,815 1,005,435 939,659 878,186 820,734 767,041 716,861 669,964 626,134 585,172 546,890 511,112 477,675 446,425 417,220 389,925 364,416 14,939,408 User Expenses 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Inspection program (e.g., significance determination process (SDP) phase 3) 5,481,790 5,123,168 3,591,006 2,684,864 2,091,016 1,954,220 1,826,374 1,706,892 1,595,226 1,490,865 1,393,332 1,302,179 1,216,990 1,137,374 1,062,966 993,426 928,436 867,697 810,932 757,880 38,016,635 Management Directive (MD) 8.3 "NRC incident investigation program 773,800 723,178 506,900 378,991 295,164 275,854 257,808 240,942 225,179 210,448 196,680 183,813 171,788 160,550 150,046 140,230 131,056 122,483 114,470 106,981 5,366,362 Accident Sequence Precursor (ASP) program 1,025,971 958,852 672,092 502,499 391,354 365,752 341,824 319,462 298,562 279,030 260,776 243,716 227,772 212,871 198,945 185,930 173,766 162,398 151,774 141,845 7,115,189 Generic Safety Issues 341,990 319,617 224,031 139,583 195,677 182,876 170,912 159,731 149,281 139,515 130,388 121,858 113 886 106 435 99 472 92 965 86 883 81 199 75 887 70 922 3 003 109 License Amendment Reviews (LARs) 1 160 700 1 352 243 947 834 708 661 551 917 515 810 482 065 450 528 421 054 393 509 367 765 343 706 321 220 300 206 280 566 262 212 245 058 229 026 214 043 200 040 9 748 163 Performance indicators verification (e.g., MSPI) 0 0

0 0

0 Note: Yr1=2, Yr2=1.5, Yr3=1.2. Yr4 on=1.0 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL User Expenses 8,784,252 8,477,058 5,941,863 4,414,598 3,525,128 3,294,512 3,078,983 2,877,554 2,689,303 2,513,367 2,348,941 2,195,272 2,051,656 1,917,436 1,791,996 1,674,763 1,565,199 1,462,803 1,367,105 1,277,669 63,249,458 Training 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total Number of Analysts for each plant (time and attandence (low 3, high 5) (Each Analyst has 10 plants)

(Attendance cost is $2000) (Travel Cost is $3000) 929,741 217,229 203,018 189,736 177,324 165,723 154,881 144,749 135,279 126,429 118,158 110,428 103,204 96,452 90,142 84,245 78,734 73,583 68,769 64,270 3,332,097 CAFTA (EPRI) 0 0

0 0

0 WinNUPRA (Scientech) 0 0

0 0

0 Riskman (ABS Consulting) 0 0

0 0

Risk Spectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) (M 0

0 0

0 Plant Specific Training (Low 1 wek per plant, high 2 weeks 0

0 0

SUBOTOTAL Training Expenses 929,741 217,229 203,018 189,736 177,324 165,723 154,881 144,749 135,279 126,429 118,158 110,428 103,204 96,452 90,142 84,245 78,734 73,583 68,769 64,270 3,332,097 Other Costs 2,019 2,020 2,021 2,022 2,023 2,024 2,025 2,026 2,027 2,028 2,029 2,030 2,031 2,032 2,033 2,034 2,035 2,036 2,037 2,038 Total No Review of Licensee Models 0

0 0

1. Review Licensee PRAs (assumes 80 different PRAs) - A typical Level 1 industry peer review takes approximately 75 person/days (5 people for about 3 weeks) 3,864,960 0

0 0

3,864,960 0

0 0

Review updated/revised PRAs (assume 10%/year) 386,496 361,211 337,581 315,496 294,856 275,566 257,539 240,690 224,944 210,228 196,475 183,621 171,609 160,382 149,890 140,084 130,920 122,355 114,350 106,869 4,381,162 0

0 0

2. Coordinate logistics with industry and staff 512 986 479 426 448 061 418 749 391 354 365 752 341 824 319 462 298 562 279 030 260 776 243 716 227 772 212 871 198 945 185 930 173 766 162 398 151 774 141 845 5 814 997 Receive and process submittal (assumes the models will be proprietary) 0 0

0 0

Create and manage reference library (assumes both digital and hardcopy) 0 0

0 0

Coordinate review of revised PRA 0

0 0

0 Duplicate and distribute models and software 0

0 0

0 Industry User Groups (software, others) 0 0

0 0

Provide limited Technical Support to SRAs 0

0 0

0

3. Guidance Updates: IMCs, RASP Handbook Revisions-Provides for uniformity of assessments - based on the Standardized SPAR Models 512,986 47,943 44,806 41,875 39,135 36,575 34,182 31,946 29,856 27,903 26,078 24,372 22,777 21,287 19,894 18,593 17,377 16,240 15,177 14,184 1,043,187 0

0 0

Cost to setup MOUs (Possibly Through NEI) 512 986 639 234 597 415 558 332 521 806 487 669 455 765 425 949 398 083 372 040 347 701 324 954 303 696 283 828 265 260 247 906 231 688 216 531 202 365 189 126 7 582 334 0

0 0

Software compatibility testing (security) 42,749 0

0 0

42,749 0

0 0

4. Software Licenses 0

0 0

CAFTA (EPRI) - includes FTREX, actual current cost 10 000 9 346 8 734 8 163 7 629 7 130 6 663 6 227 5 820 5 439 5 083 4 751 4 440 4 150 3 878 3 624 3 387 3 166 2 959 2 765 113 356 WinNUPRA (Scientech) - estimated 10,000 9,346 8,734 8,163 7,629 7,130 6,663 6,227 5,820 5,439 5,083 4,751 4,440 4,150 3,878 3,624 3,387 3,166 2,959 2,765 113,356 Riskman (ABS Consulting) - estimated 10,000 9,346 8,734 8,163 7,629 7,130 6,663 6,227 5,820 5,439 5,083 4,751 4,440 4,150 3,878 3,624 3,387 3,166 2,959 2,765 113,356 RiskSpectrum (Lloyd's Register Consulting, Sweden) -

estimated (may not be needed) 10,000 9,346 8,734 8,163 7,629 7,130 6,663 6,227 5,820 5,439 5,083 4,751 4,440 4,150 3,878 3,624 3,387 3,166 2,959 2,765 113,356 SUBOTOTAL Other Cost Expenses 5,873,162 1,565,197 1,462,801 1,367,104 1,277,667 1,194,081 1,115,964 1,042,957 974,726 910,959 851,364 795,667 743,614 694,966 649,501 607,010 567,299 530,186 495,501 463,085 23,182,813 COST

SUMMARY

LICENSEE EXPENSES [INITIAL & ONGOING HIGH ESTIMATE ONLY]-7% Disc TOTAL-7% Disc 16,905,074 11,491,185 8,758,804 7,047,253 5,985,553 5,593,975 5,228,014 4,885,995 4,566,350 4,267,617 3,988,427 3,727,502 3,483,647 3,255,744 3,042,752 2,843,693 2,657,657 2,483,792 2,321,301 2,169,440 104,703,775 7% Discounting: NRC SPAR Model Expenses Cost (Status Quo) 7% Discounting: Licensee Model Expenses [INITIAL & ONGOING LOW ESTIMATE ONLY]

7% Discounting: Licensee Model Expenses [INITIAL & ONGOING HIGH ESTIMATE ONLY]

Copy of Risk NRR Cost Comparison V17B SwappedValues.xls Sumry Page 9 of 12

SUMMARY

OF THE SPAR PROPOSED CHANGE NRC and Licensee Costs (Undiscounted)

NRC Licensee Low Licensee High Implementation Costs 5,420,551 6,470,446 16,905,074 Operations Costs 102,990,470 110,880,453 156,490,144 Total 108,411,021 117,350,899 173,395,218 NRC and Licensee Costs (3% Discounting)

NRC Licensee Low Licensee High Implementation Costs 5,420,551 6,470,446 16,905,074 Operations Costs 77,642,885 83,591,018 119,479,743 Total 83,063,436 90,061,463 136,384,817 NRC and Licensee Costs (7% Discounting)

NRC Licensee Low Licensee High Implementation Costs 5,420,551 6,470,446 16,905,074 Operations Costs 56,024,622 60,316,604 87,798,701 Total 61,445,173 66,787,050 104,703,775

Copy of Risk NRR Cost Comparison V17B SwappedValues.xls PrjtSqnLst.

Page 10 of 12 Project Sequence List of Tasks to Commence Using Licensee Models Seq#

Section Description Ongoing Initial Ongoing Initial Ongoing Initial Ongoing Initial 1

Other Costs Setup MOU/MOA 170,995 512,986 181,760 727,040 2

Contract Expenses Develop/Initiate Support Contract (INL) 250,000 500,000 3

Other Costs Setup Licensee's Models on Server 4

Other Costs IP Support: Cost of SW Licences 30,000 40,000 5

Other Costs IP Support: Testing SW to put on Server 42,749 42,749 6

IP Support: Other SW Testing At this time,NRC risk analysts are setup to use the SW 7

Other Costs Iniitial Review of Licensees Models 0

3,864,960 8

Other Costs Review of Updated Models 0

386,496 9

Get agreement in place 10 Training User Familiarity-Training 697,306 929,741 Training Plant Specific Training 0

0 0

0 11 IP Support:

12 IP Support:

13 IP Support:

14 Other Costs Guidance Updates 170,995 512,986 Applications and Support 15 Contract Expenses RES contract and technical support 545,280 817,920 16 Other Costs Coordinate Logistics (PM support) 170,995 512,986 17 User Expenses Inspection Program 2,740,895 5,481,790 18 User Expenses MD 8.3 386,900 773,800 19 User Expenses ASP 512,986 1,025,971 20 User Expenses GSI 170,995 341,990 21 User Expenses LAR 580,350 1,160,700 349,440 698,880 22 User Expenses MSPI TOTAL INITIAL COSTS 384,739 4,933,680 181,760 727,040 TOTAL ONGOING COSTS 6,085,707 11,971,394 349,440 698,880 A1 B1 C1 D1 A2 B2 C2 D2 A1 + A2 LOW TOTAL ONGOING COSTS 6,435,147 B1 + B2 LOW TOTAL INITIAL COSTS 566,499 C1 + C2 HIGH TOTAL ONGOING COSTS 12,670,274 D1 + D2 HIGH TOTAL INITIAL COSTS 5,660,720 Licensee Costs NRC Costs to use Licensee PRA Models Low High Cost Estimate Cost Estimate Low High

Stauts Quo Licensees LABOR (FTEs)

Analysts

?

8 to 24*

RES Spt 4.5 3.0 to 4.5 Work 25.7 25.7 to 51.4 CONTRACT

$2.7M $0.7M to $1.3M INCIDENTALS 0

$0.6M to $5.5M Notes: SPAR Cst Cmpr 80 PRSs

1 Anly/10 PRAs = 8 Analysts 8 Anly

3 Plants/Anly = 24 Analysts

Position Title Occupation (SOC code)

Hourly mean wage (2013 dollars)

Hourly 25th percentile wage (2013 dollars)

Hourly 75th percentile wage (2013 dollars)

Source Top Executives (111000)

$66.37

$46.64 79.58 http://ww w.bls.gov/

oes/curren t/naics4_2 21100.ht m#11-0000 Chief Executives (111011) (1)

$95.79

$66.55

$116.68 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0001 Average

$81.08

$56.60

$98.13 First-Line Supervisors of Production and Operating Workers (511011)

$41.40

$32.23

$52.10 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0000 First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics Installers and Repairers (491011)

$39.65

$32.40

$47.29 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0001 Industrial Production Managers(1 13051)

$56.26

$43.58

$66.67 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0000 General and Operations Managers (111021) (1)

$63.76

$45.77

$75.58 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0001 Average

$50.27

$38.50

$60.41 Nuclear Engineers(1 72161)

$48.84

$40.42

$56.55 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0000 Nuclear Technicians(

194051)

$37.25

$30.76

$43.57 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0001 Nuclear Power Reactor Operators (518011)

$39.55

$34.02

$45.14 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0000 Industrial Machinery Mechanics (499041)

$31.24

$24.86

$37.88 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0001 Average

$39.22

$32.52

$45.79 Office and Administrati ve Support Occupations (430000)

$23.15

$16.72

$28.27 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0000 First-Line Supervisors of Office and Administrati ve Support Workers (431011)

$34.61

$25.99

$42.93 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0001 Office Clerks General (439061)

$19.42

$13.96

$24.17 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/oes43 9061.htm Average

$25.73

$18.89

$31.79 Paralegals and Legal Assistants (232011)

$29.85

$24.85

$35.39 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0000 Lawyers (231011) (1)

$73.23

$44.96

$88.71 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/naics4

_221100.htm

11-0001 Average

$51.54

$34.91

$62.05 Physicist Physicists (192012) (5)

$57.77

$41.63

$69.08 http://www.

bls.gov/oes/c urrent/oes19 2012.htm Table 4 BLS Burdened Hourly mean wage BLS Burdened Hourly 25th percentile wage BLS Burdened Hourly 75th percentile wage Mean Hourly wage Executive 1.047 2.4

$203.67

$142.17

$246.50

$199.77

$197.45

$194.33 Managers 1.047 2.4

$126.27

$96.70

$151.75

$125.44

$124.91 Technical Staff 1.047 2.4

$98.52

$81.68

$115.01

$98.46

$98.40 Admin Staff 1.047 2.4

$64.63

$47.45

$79.86

$64.25

$63.98 Licensing Staff 1.047 2.4

$129.47

$87.68

$155.87

$126.84

$124.34 Physicist 1.047 2.4

$145.12

$104.57

$173.53

$143.19

$141.07 (2014 to 2016)

Labor Category Mean Wage Rate (A)

Labor Multiplier (B)

CPI-U Inflator (C)

Burdened Hourly mean wage (2015 dollars)

(D = A x B x C)

Executive

$81.08

$203.67 Managers

$50.27

$126.27 Technical Staff

$39.22

$98.52 Admin Staff

$25.73

$64.63 Licensing Staff

$51.54

$129.47 Physicist

$57.77

$145.12 NRC

$124.00

$127.95 CPI inflator: http://www.statista.com/statistics/244993/projected-consumer-price-index-in-the-united-states/

Year CPI 2014 236.736 2017 247.783 Labor Category Executive Managers Technical Staff Administrative Staff Licensing Staff Footnotes:

CPI-U Inflator (2014 to 2017)

Labor Multiplier 2017 Dollars 2.4 1.047 (1) The BLS notes that this 75th percentile wage is equal to or greater than $90.00 per hour or

$187,199 per year without specifying a value. For this analysis, the NRC staff estimated that the 75th percentile is approximately 20% greater than the (2) SOC code: Standard Occupational Classification code -- see http://www.bls.gov/soc/home.htm (3) NAICS code: North American Industry Classification System code -- see http://www.bls.gov/bls/naics.htm (4) Data extracted on April 29, 2015.

(5) Data from May 2014 for Physicists

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