ML17347A797

Seismic Hazard Data Prepared for Resolution of USI A-46

ML17347A797
Person / Time
Site:	Saint Lucie, Turkey Point, 05000000
Issue date:	06/16/1988
From:	EBASCO SERVICES, INC.
To:
Shared Package
ML17347A796	List: ML17347A795 ML17347A797 ML17347A798 ML17347A800
References
REF-GTECI-A-46, REF-GTECI-SC, TASK-A-46, TASK-OR NUDOCS 8807050467
Download: ML17347A797 (21)

Text

SEISMIC HAZARDDATA PREPARED FOR THE RESOLUTION OF USI A-46 ST LUCRE UNIT 1 AND TURKEY POINT UNITS 3 AND 4 NuCLEAR POWER PLANT SlTES Prepared By Ebasco Services lnc.

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GB07700A SDMKLRY OF SEISMIC HAZbRD RESULTS 1.0 Introdnction The unresolved questions regarding the cause and source of seismicity in the region of the United States east of 105 W longitude (Eastern U.S.), led the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to actively pursue the use of probabilistic methods, as alternatives to the deterministic approach used in the past, for re-evaluation of the seismic design of nuclear facilities in the eastern United States.

This re-evaluation takes into account the uncertainties in source geometry, seismicity parameters and ground motion for the large earthquakes that occur in the Eastern U.S.

As part of the NRC-funded investigations, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LINL) conducted probabilistic seismic hazard evaluations for ten "sample sites" whose locations are shown on Figure 1.

A parallel probabilistic seismic hazard study, based on an intensive data collection and evaluation effort, was implemented by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) with the assistance of six Technical Evaluation Contractors (TEC).

Both the NRC"funded LINL studies, and the EPRI investigations, funded by a group of nuclear power plant owners in the Eastern U.S., utilize comprehensive seismic and tectonic data bases and recent advances in the probabilistic methodologies for the evaluation of seismic hazard for sites located in the Eastern U.S.

In light of these recent advances in probabilistic seismic risk assessment, the Florida Power and Light Company (FP6L) requested that Ebasco Services Incorporated (ESI) perform an up-to&ate seismic hazard evaluation for their St. Lucie and Turkey Point nuclear power plant sites.

This updated evaluation uses the methodology, computer programs, and the tectonic and seismic input parameters developed as a result of the EERI investigations.

In addition, the scope of the ESI investigation included an evaluation of the contribution to seismic hazard at the St. lucre and Turkey Point sites from the occurrence of large magnitude earthquakes in the Northern Caribbean.

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GB07700A 1.1 Procedure Following the EPRI methodology, the seismic hazards were computed for the St.

Lucie and Turkey Point sites using the seismic source zones and seismicity parameters established by each of the six EPRI Technical Evaluation Contractors (TEC), and the seismic source zones and seismicity parameters identified by ESI for the Northern Caribbean.

The location and extent of the seismic source zones that were evaluated in this study are shown on Figures 2

through 8.

The source zones that contributed to the seismic hazard at each of the two plant sites have also been listed on these figures.

The TEC source zone names,

labels, and the EPRI Data Base Manager code numbers are given in Table 1.

Two of the Northern Caribbean

sources, Cayman Trough and JamaicaWestern Hispaniola, that were identified during this study contributed to the seismic hazard at Turkey Point, but none contributed to the hazard at St. Lucie.

Also contributions of New Madrid area sources to the seisnd.c

\\

hazard at both plant sites for each of the six TECs were negligible.

The scenarios and weights for the source zones that contributed to seismic hazard are given in Table 2.

The seismic hazard values that were calculated from each TEC model were then aggregated in accordance with the EPRI recommended procedure to generate the final hazard curves.

The source zones that contributed less than 1.0E-10 to seismic hazard at the sites were not inc1uded in the aggregation process.

1.2 Results The results for the St. Lucie and Turkey Point sites are presented as constant percentile hazard curves for peak ground acceleration on Figures 9 and 10 respectively.

On these figures the 85th, 50th, and 15th percentile curves represent the aggregated results of all TECs.

The annual probability of exceedance and the corresponding return periods for the 50th percentile hazard at various levels of peak ground acceleration for the two plant sites are given in Table 3.

GB07700A 1.3 Summary and Conclusions In summary, the results of the probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation carried out by Ebasco Services Incorporated for the Florida Power and Qght Company indicate that for the St. Lucie and Turkey Point sites the hazard is very low.

As illustrated, the Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) seismic hazard calculated for the St. Lucie site is very low.

The annual probability of exceedance for the site SSE (98 cm/sec or 0.10g) is 1.27E-5, and is associated with a 2

79,000 years return period.

The seismic hazard calculated for the Turkey Point site is even lower.

The annual probability of exceedance for the site DBE (49 cm/sec or 0.05g) is 3.31E-5, and is associated with a 30,000 years 2

return period.

These values are significantly lower than the levels of seisad.c hazard associated with each of the test sites evaluated during the LINL (ten sites) and EPRI (nine sites) studies.

It should be noted that the application of the EPRI methodology to evaluate seismic hazard at the St. Lucie and Turkey Point sites provides a conservative estimate.

For example, one of the TEC teams, Woodward Clyde Consultants, specified the use of the following maximum magnitudes (and associated probabi1ities) for background sources along the entire East Coast:

5.8 (0.33), 6.2 (0.34), and 6.6 (0.33).

Although these values may be appropriate for other regions along the East Coast, they do constitute an over-estimate of conditions in Peninsular Florida.

Similarly, generalized assumptions made by other TECs can also be questioned for their overconservative estimates of seismicity in Florida.

This is especially important because most of the contribution to the St. Lucie and Turkey Point sites, in the case of each of the TEC source zones, is derived from the background source containing the sites.

Savy (1988) noted that ground motion modeling experts (G-experts) in LLNL study have now assigned a large weight to the class of "random vibration" models (the RV models).

Recently Boore and Atkinson (1987) published a paper

GB07700A on the stochastic prediction of ground motion aad spectral response parameters at hard-rock sites in eastern North America.

From a plot of peak ground acceleration versus hypocentral distance for a magnitude 6.5 earthquake, we observed that the EPRI attenuation for the random vibration model is very close to Boore and Atkinson (1987) ground motion model.

If this model is considered more representative of eastern North America, then the hazard computed using all three EPRI attenuations (Nuttli, 1984; Empirical Model; and Random-Vibration Model) should be considered a conservative estimate.

REFERENCES

Boore, D.M. and G.M. Atkinson (1987).

Stochastic prediction of ground motioa and spectral response parameters at hard-rock sites in eastern North America, Bull. Seism.

Soc.

Am., 77, 440%67.

EPRI, 1986-87, Seismic Hazard Methodology for the Central and Eastern United

States, volumes 1-10, EPRI NP-4726.

Nuttli, O.W. (1984).

Letter to Dr. Dae H.

Chuag, Appendiz 0-A in "Seismic Hazard Characterization of the Eastern Gaited States'.

Methodology and Interim Results for Ten Sites",

by D.L. Bernreuter et al., NUREG/CR-3756, pp.

C"99 to C-105.

Savy, J.B.

(1988).

Seismic hazard at 69 sites ia the eastern U.S. based on ezpert opinion regional comparison, abstract, Seismological Research

Letters, 59, p. 14.

GB07700A Table 1 Computerized Data Base Label No. of Source Zones TEC Name TEC Label No.

(Used on TEC Maps)

Source Name Data Base Label No.

(Used on Computer Files)

Bechtel Group Dames

& Moore 13 30 31 H

N-3 BZ-0 BZ-1 BZ-4 20 21 22 22-21B 52 53 54 65 Mesozoic Basins New Madrid Reelfoot Rift Charleston Area Charleston Faults New Madrid Region

'ulf Coas t Background Atlantic Coast Background Southern Coastal Margin New Madrid Reelfoot Rift Ree1 foot Rift-New Madrid Char les ton Rift Southern Appalachian Default Charleston Seismic Zone Dunbarton Triassic Basin 0130 0300 031-00 052-00 059-00 001-00 006%0 020-00 020-00 021%0 022&0 915&0 052&0 053-00 0540 062&0 Law Engineering 04a 04b 08 18 35 108 126 M-37 M-38 M-39 M-40 M<1 M-42 M-43 M-44 M-45 M-48 M-49 M-50 Reelfoot Rift(A)

Reel foot Rift(B)

Mesozoic Basins Reelfoot Rift Faults Char les ton Brunswick Background Southern Coastal Block Mafic Pluton Mafic Pluton Mafic Pluton Mafic Pluton Mafic Pluton Mafic Pluton Mafic Pluton Mafic Pluton Mafic Pluton Mafic Pluton Mafic Pluton Mafic Pluton 004-01 004-02 008-16 018%0 035%0 043-00 060-01 038-37 038-38 038-39 038<0 038&1 038%2 038-43 038%4 038-45 038%8 038<9 038-50

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GBO7700A Table 1 ( Con tinued)

Computerized Data Base Label No. of Source Zones TEC Name TEC Label No.

Source Name (Used on TEC Maps)

Data Base Label No.

(Used on Computer Files)

Rondou t Associates 1

2 24 26 49%5 51 Weston Geophysical 25 26 31 32 104 107 Z032-Z031 Z104-Z022 Z104-Z025 Z104-Z026 Z104-Z022

-Z026 Z104-Z022

-Z025 Z104-Z028BCDE

-Z022

-Z025 Z104-Z028BCDE

-Z022

-Z026 New Madrid New Madrid Rift Charles ton South Carolina Appalachian Basement

Background

Gulf Coast to Bahamas

Background

Charleston South Carolina New Madrid Reelfoot Rift Southern Coastal Plain

Background

Gulf Coast Background Combination (C-11)

Combination (C-20)

Combine tion (C-21)

Combination (C-22)

Combination (C-23)

Combination (C-24)

Combination (C-27)

Comb ina tion (C-28) 001-00 0020 024%0 026%0 049%5 051-00 0250 026%0 031&0 032-00 054-00 057%0 911-00 9200 921-00 922&0 9230 9240 927%0 928<0 Woodward-Clyde 1

29 29A1

29A2, 29B 30 40 41 44 Continental Shelf Edge South Carolina Option 1 South Carolina Option 2 South Carolina Option 2 South Carolina Option 3 Charleston NOTA Central Reelfoot Rift Combination (C-8)

New Madrid Loading Zone 001-00 029%0 029%1 0292 0293 030%0 0400 9080 0440

GB07700A TABLE 2 Scenarios for Contributing. Source Zones St. Lucie TEC Team Bechtel

Background

Scenario2 00600 + 02000 + 01300 + 05200 00600 + 02000 + 01300 00600 + 02000 + 05200 00600 + 02000 00600 02000

~Wei ht3

.05

.05

.45

.45 1.0 1.0 Dames and Moore

Background

02000 + 05400 02000 + 05400 + 05200 02000 + 05400 + 05300 02000 + 0540D 02000 + 0540D + 05200 02000 + 0540D + 05300 02000

.196

.322

.182

.084

. 138

.078 1.0 Law Engineering 04300 + 06001 + 02200 04300 + 06001 + 00816 04300 + 06001

.27

.27

.46 Bac kground 04300 06001

.42

.49 Rondou t Associates

Background

02400 + 02600 + 04905 + 05100 04905 05100 1.0 1.0 1.0 Weston Geophysical Corporation

Background

05700 + 92000 05700 + 02500 05700 + 02600 05700 + 02600 05700 + 02500 05700 + 02500 05700 + 02600 05700 + 05400 05700

+ 92100

+ 92200

+ 92300

+ 92400

+ 92700

+ 92800

.001

.012

.069

~ 312

.368

. 126

. 100

.012 1.0

GB07700A TABLE 2 (continued)

Scenarios for Contributing Source Zones St. Lucie TEC Team Woodward Clyde Consultants Scenario2 WCCBK WCCBK + 02903 WCCBK + 02900 WCCBK + 02901 + 02902

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.468

. 105

. 122

.305

Background

WCCBK 1.0 Mote: 1)

Source Zone numbers correspond to those on Table 1 and on Figgres 2 through 7.

2)

Each TEC scenario is made up of the allowable.source zone combinations whose total weights, or probability of activity add up to 1.0.

3)

Weight is defined as the fractional probability of activity.

GB07700A TABLE 2 (continued)

Scenarios for Contributing Source Zonesl Turkey Point TEC Team Scenario2

~Wek ht3 Bechtel

Background

00600 + 02000 + CB001 + CB002 00600 02000 1.0 1.0 1.0 Dames and Moore 02000 + CB001 + CB002 1.0 Law Engineering

Background

04300 + 06001 + 02200 + CB001 + CB002 04300 + 06001 + 00816 + CB001 + CB002 04300 + 06001 + CB001 + CB002 04300 06001

.27

~ 27

.46

.42

.49 Rondou t Associates

Background

04905 + 05100 + CB001 + CB002 04905 05100 1.0 1.0 1.0 Wes ton Geophys ical Corporation

Background

05700 + CB001 + CB002 05700 1.0 1.0 Woodward Clyde Consultants WCCBK + CB001 + (B002

1.0 Background

WCCBK 1.0

• Note.'1)

Source Zone numbers correspond to those on Table 1 and on Figures 2 through 7.

2)

Each TEC scenario is made up of the allowable source zone combinations whose total weights, or probability of activity add up to 1.0.

3)

Weight is defined as the fractional probability of activity.

GB07700A Table 3 Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA)

Probability of Exceedance and Return Periods Seismic Hazard Results Summary for St. Lucie Site 50th Percentile Acceleration

( xg)

.005

.01

.03

.05

.10 (SSE)

.15

.20

.25

.30

.50 Annual Probability of Exceedance 6.71E H 2.92EA 7.88K-5

3. 95E-5 1.27E-5

6. 35EW 3.54E-6

2. 13EW

1. 32EW 2.48E-7 Estimated Return Period (yrs) 1,490 3,425 12,690 25,316 78,740 157,480 282,486 469,484 757,576 4,032, 258 Seismic Hazard Results Summary for Turkey Point Site 50th Percentile Acceleration (xg)

.005

.01

.03

.05 (DBE)

.10

.15

.20

.25

.30

.50 Annual Probability of Exceedance 6.31EH

2. 43EA 6.77E-5

3. 31E-5 1.05E-5

4. 97EW 2.54E-6

1. 35EW 7.70E-7

1. 31E-7 Estimated Return Period (yrs) 1,585 4, 115 14,771 30,211 95,238 201, 207 393,701 7400741 1,298,701 7,633,588 10

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Limerick 2.

Shearon Harris Braidwood 4.

La Crosse 5.

River Bend 6.

Wolf Creek 7.

Watts Bar Vogtle Millstone

10. Maine Yankee Florida Power and Light Company EBASCO SERVICES INCORPORATED Location of the LLNLSample Sites and St. Lucia and Turkey Point FIGURE 1

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00600 02000 Mesozoic Basins New Madrid Reelfoot Rift Charleston Area Charleston Feults New Madrid Background Site Background Adjacent Background 01300 05200 00600 02000 00600 02000 Flonds Power and Light Company EBASCO SERVICES INCORPORATEO Seismic Source Zones Considered for the Florida Power and Light Company Iaechtel Group Inc. Modeli FIGURE 2

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Charleston Default Zone Dunbarton Triassic Basin 02000 05200 05300 05400 0540D 02000 Florida Power and Light Company EBASCO SERVICES INCORPORATEO Seismic Source Zones Considered for the Florida Power and Light Company IDames and Moore Modell FIGURE 3

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Reelfoot Rift tB)

Mesozoic Basins Reelfoot Rift Faults Reactivated Eastern Seaboard Charleston Brunswick Southern Coastal Block Mafic Plutons Mafic Plutons Source Zone Contributin to Hazard St. Lucie Turkey Point 00816 00816 02200 02200 04300 06001 Florida Power and Light Company EBASCO SERVICES INCORPORATED eismic ource Zonea Conatdered for the Florida Power end Light Company ILaw Engineering Company Model)

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~mber 02500 02600 03100 03200 05400 05700 91100 92000'o 92400'2700'2800'harleston South Carolina New Madrid Reelfoot Rift Southern Coastal Plain Gulf Coast Background Combination 11 Combinations 920 to 924 Combination 927 Combination 928

'Geometry of Colnbination Sources Given in Table 1.

Source Zone Contributi to Hazard Q~ucie 02500 02600 T~ntke Paint 05400 05700 05700 92000 to 92400 92700 92800 Florida Power and Light Company EBASCO SEAVICES INCOAPOAATEO Seismic Source Zones Considered for the F loride Power and Light Compenv lWeston Geophysical Corp. Model)

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South Carolina, Option 2 South Carolina, Option 2 South Carolina, Option 3 Charleston NOTA Central Reelfoot Rift Reelfoot Rift New Madrid Loading Zone

Background

St. Lucie 02900 02901 02902 02903 WCCBK Turkey Point WCCBK Florida Power and Light Company EBASCO SERVICES INCORPORATED eismic rce Zones Considered for the Florida Power and Light Company IWoodward Clyde Consultants Modell FIGURE 7

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10 HAZARD RESULTS AT TURKEY POI.I EQUAL TEAM WEIGHTS

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-7 10 85th Percentile 50th Percentile 15th Percentile 10 10 100 200 300 400 ACCELERATION (cm/sec

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500 Florida Power and Light Company EBASCO SERVICES INCORPORATEO FIGURE t0