ML17331B170

Summary of 931117 Meeting W/Representatives from American Electric Power Svc Corp,Indiana Michigan Power Co, Westinghouse & Rizzo Assoc in Rockville,Md Re Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis of Ipeee.W/Encls

ML17331B170
Person / Time
Site:	Cook
Issue date:	12/28/1993
From:	John Hickman Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
NUDOCS 9401060311
Download: ML17331B170 (31)

Text

. ~

Docket Nos.

50-315 and 50-316 December 28, 1993 LICENSEE:

Indiana and Michigan Power Company (IHPC)

FACILITY:

D.C. Cook, Units 1

5, 2

SUBJECT:

MEETING

SUMMARY

OF NOVEMBER 17, 1993 On November 17, 1993, representatives from American Electric Power Service Corporation, Indiana Michigan Power

Company, Westinghouse, and Rizzo Associates met with members of the NRC staff in Rockville, Maryland, to discuss the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis portion of D.C. Cook' Individual Plant Examination for External Events (IPEEE).

A list of attendees is enclosed (Enclosure 1).

The licensee's overhead slides used during the meeting are also enclosed (Enclosure 2).

The meeting focused on eight NRC questions (Enclosure

3) concerning the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis performed by Rizzo Associates for the licensee.

The licensee has defined an alternate seismic hazard for the Cook site rather than using the Electric Power Research Institute and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory data; therefore, the staff re'quired responses to numerous technical questions in order to gain an understanding of the alternate methodology that was used.

The meeting provided a forum for an exchange of technical information with regards to the methodology for seismic hazard analysis.

During the meeting the licensee agreed to provide additional information (summarized in Enclosure

4) to support the staff's review of the IPEEE.

The, licensee agreed to provide the information listed in Enclosure 4 within 45 days of the date of this meeting summary.

The'eporting and/or recordkeeping requirements contained in this summary affect fewer than ten respondents; therefore, Office of Management and Budget

. clearance "is not required under P.L.96-511.

Enclosures:

1.

List of Attendees 2.

Licensee Slides 3.

'NRC guestions 4.

Request for Additional Information cc:

w/enclosures See next page Origirial signed by Beth Wetzel for John B. Hickman, Project Manager Project Directorate III-1 Division of Reactor Projects - III/IV/V Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation OFFICE IIAHE DATE LA:PD31 CJamerso PE:PD3 BWetzel PH: PD31 JHi ckman D: PD31 RBlou h

OFFICIAL RECORD COPY FILENAME: G: iWPDOCSiDCCOOKiCOHEETIN. SUH 9401060311

'F31228

.PDR ADOCK'05000315','P;

.,P,.DR.

jt k

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1, T

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Mr. E.

E. Fitzpatrick Indiana Michigan Power Company CC:

Regional Administrator, Region III U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission 801 Warrenville Road Lisle, Illinois 60532-4351 Attorney General Department of Attorney General 525 West Ottawa Street

Lansing, Michigan 48913 Township Supervisor Lake Township Hall Post Office Box 818 Bridgman, Michigan 49106 Al Blind, Plant Manager Donald C.

Cook Nuclear Plant Post Office Box 458 Bridgman, Michigan 49106 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Resident Inspector Office 7700 Red Arrow Highway Stevensville, Michigan 49127 Gerald Charnoff, Esquire

Shaw, Pittman, Potts and Trowbridge 2300 N Street, N.

W.

Washington, DC 20037 Mayor, City of Bridgman Post Office Box 366 Bridgman, Michigan 49106 Special Assistant to the Governor Room 1 - State Capitol

Lansing, Michigan 48909 Nuclear Facilities and Environmental Monitoring Section Office Division of Radiological Health Department of Public Health

'423 N.

Logan Street P. 0.

Box 30195

Lansing, Michigan 48909 Donald C.

Cook Nuclear Plant Mr. S.

Brewer American Electric Power Service Corporation 1 Riverside Plaza

Columbus, Ohio 43215 December l993

ENCLOSURE 1

November 17 1993 D.C.

Cook Units 1 and 2

.~IPEEE E

List of Attendees Name Beth Wetzel A. Randolph Blough Goutam Bagchi Robert Rothman Andrew Murphy Nilesh Chokshi Ron Hernan John Chen Mary Drouin Gus Giese-Koch Jeb Kingseed Paul Rizzo Nish Vaidya Steve Brewer Richard Bennett William Lapan Robin Lapides Joel Wiebe Karl Toth Or anization NRC/NRR/PDIII-1 NRC/NRR/PD III-1 NRC/NRR/ECGB NRC/NRR/ECGB NRC/RES/SSEB NRC/RES/SSEB NRC/NRR/PD I-4 NRC/RES/SAIB NRC/RES/SAIB NRC/NRR/ECGB AEP Rizzo Associates Rizzo Associates AEP AEP Westinghouse Westinghouse Indiana Michigan Power Co.

AEP

ISMIC HAZARDCURVES Overview and Objectives

,'olog

ERVIEWAND OBJECTIVES

," -PSC not. a Participant in the EPRI/SOG Program

,3 t <gamic Hazard Currently Defined by LLNL

~r ~ ~jjCj

.'tu'dg ndicated Approach Can Result in nt Seismic Hazard Q~

.je'e

,g,t

@+M~~+W

'ine Alternate Seismic Hazard x5"

Log N A

8.

b, Slope e) Geometry of homogenous source zones beismicity/tectonics) mo m,

Ibl Megnitude recurrence model ifrequency vs size)

Log P 10-'0-2 10 2 isy integration Log Y Ground motion intensity o, Dispersion mb~7 mb 6

mb ~ 5 0.1 g 0.1 g d) Seismic hazard curve Log Y Log distance (c) Ground motion prediction model (ettenuetion)

THE BASIC STEPS OF A PROBABILlSTIC SEISMIC HAZARO ANALYSIS RKFERFN CES:

BERNREUTER ET AL (1989)

Paul C Rizzo Associates. Inc.

r.nNctu Tzum

t t

SEISMIC HAZARDMETHODOLOGY rssUz EPM PCRA SEISiVIIC SOURCE ZONE MODEL INDIVIDUAL EXPERTS GAVE B.E.

MODELS+ALT'S.

EST'S USED STRUCTURED &

CONCENSUS APPROACH, GAVE B.E. MODELS+

ALT'S.

EPRI'S B.E. MODELS SUPPLEMENTD BY LLNL'SAND PCRA'S B.E. MODELS.

SEISidICITY PAIVddETERS BASED ON EXPERT' DATA, INDEP. OR CORRELATED, CONTINUOUS OVER SOURCE ZONE.

STD. CATALOG)

INCLUDES INCOMPLETENFm, DISCRETE PAIRS, FULLY CORRELATED.

STD. CATALOG

'NCLUDES INCOMPLETENESS, INDEPENDENT AND CONTINUOUS OVER SOURCE ZONE.

GROUND MOTIONMODEL 5 EXPERTS wEIGHTED 8 ATrN.

LAWS. GAVEB.E.'S AND SELF WEIGErs.

EPRI (NPM74) LAW EPRI GROUND WITHTWO MOTIONMODEL +

ALTERNATES.

LLNL'SSE2-A.

SITE EFFECTS GENERIC SITES, CORRECTION USED IN SIMULATION BASED ON EXPERT INPUT.

GENERIC SITES, EVALUATED SEPARATELY FOR DIFFERENT VALUES OF PGA.

vsEs EPRI's srrE AMPLIHCATION FACTORS CONSISTENT WITH PGA'S.

PROCEDURE SIMULATION LOGIC 'I%EX SIMULATION

ETHODOLOGY Cont'd

%4@

iability omness use

MODEL SOURCE LLNL 1

LLNL 2

ATTENUATION RELATIONSHIP (PROB aBcuStlC)

MONTECARLO SIMULATION

~a ca 8 UMITS OF SEISMICllY PARAMETERS (PROBABtuStlC)

UPpER BCutcO m mot cc 8 faULT 00 LLNL 3

LLtlL 4.

LLNL 5

LLNL 6

LLNL 7

EPRC C968 (0. 50)

PLt c

(0. 50) aLt 0 (0. 5) :I (025) a BESC ESCttcatE m mot LOttER BCURO m mot UPPER 60utc0 o

BESt EStlua'K o PROVIttCC 10 LLNL 10 3 LLNL 11 LLNL )2 LLtlL 13 t

CPRI - uCSTQtt LLtcL SE-2a (tcuttlc. l9P5)

(0 50)

LOVER BOutCO o UPPER BOURO b BESt EStttcatE 5

LOttER 6OVRO b CPRI -

DAttCS S ttODRC 3

Cc"Rl - RCNDGUT CPRI - LA+ Ct:G;tlCCRltlG RIZZQ PROBABILISTIC SEIStttC HAZARD METHODOLOGY c'v Paul C Recco Acsoriates. Ine, 5 9 c

~ ot,gtlwt

DEVELOPMENT OF CATALOG o

START WITHA BASE LIST FROM NGDC FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.

o IDENTIFYEVENTS INTHE SITE REGION.

o EVALUATEEVENTS IN THE SITE REGION.

o CONVERT TO COMMON,MAGNITUDEBASE.

b 0.709 + 0.599Io (EPRI) mb = 0.506 Ms + 2.775 (Nuttli & Hermann) o ELIMINATEEVENTS LESS THtW MAGNITUDE4.0.

o ELIMINATEFORESHOCKS AND AFI'ERSHOCKS BASED ON TIMEAND AREA WINDOWS.

log N = 0.602 mb - 0.931 R = 04mb-1.1 o

VERIFY RESULTING. EARTHQUAKELIST WITHEPRI (PHASE II), AND OTHER PUBLISHED DATA.

DEVELOPMENT OF SEISMICITY P

TERS o

IDENTIFYEVENTS IN EACH SEISMIC SOURCE ZONE.

o ASSIGN PROBABILITYOF DATACOMPLETENESS VALUEFOR EACH EVENT.

o CALCULATE"N" VALUES.

o DEFINE A LEAST-SQUARES FIT TO DATA.

o CALCULATE"a" AND "b" VALUES.

SEISMICITY PARAMETERS LLNL SE-6, SOURCE ZONE 9 1

SEISMICITY PARAMETERS LLNL SE-6, SOURCE ZONE 17 4

4J CO O 2 C 2 o z

~

~

Q 10 4

10 0

0Z 10 XS v

~M 45 5

MAGNITUDE, m 5S 6

4J+ 10 V)

I 10 0

0Z 10 4

45 5

MAGNITUDE, m 55 6

OI Q) a C1 oY 0 g Q oQC 01 I

à I

EO Z

0 IO O

Q 10

~

10 0

10 SFISMICITY PARAMETERS LLNL SE-6, SOURCE ZONE 22 SEISMICITY PARAMETERS LLNL SE-6, COMPLEMENTARY ZONE 1

+ 10 10 0

0X 10 45 5

MAGNITUDE. m 55 6

XS 4

45 5

MAGNITUDE, m 55 6

LEGEND:

~

RECORDED DATA RIZZO ASSOCIATES BEST ESTIMATE RECURRENCE FIGURE 5

SEI SM IClTY P ARA METER S FOR LLNL SE-6 DOMINANT SOURCE ZONES SENSIllVITY STUDY DONALD C, COOK NUCLEAR PLANT PREPARED FOR WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC CORP.

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA Paul C. Rizzo AssocIates. Inc.

COHSULTANM

z0 0.1 tJ l

I0 I

0.0 IV l 00 500 EPICENTRAL DISTANCE (KM)

SAGUENAY DATA NUTTI.I, SE-2A EPRI-BASE MOOEL EP Rl -ALTERNATE EPRI-ALTERNATE 2 COMPARISON OF SELECTED ATTENUATION FUNCTIONS WITH SAGUENAY DATA

0

SAG UENAY 1988 SAN FRANCISCO 1906 LEGEND KH MM Vl-Vll ER MM2 Vll SAN FERNANDO 1971 1886 CHARLESTON 500 KM

Comparison of MMIAttenuation Curves.

1886 Charleston.

1988 Saguenay.

and 1952 Kern County Earthquakes 10 0

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 Distance (km)

Saguenay Charleston Kern County FILE;ATlEN XLC Figure 1

SULTS

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10 lZ CQp 10 0

LJO

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10 a

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~x 10 10 ZZ

-L 10 10 200 400 600 800 ICGQ PGA (cm/sec

)

15 th P ERCEN TILE MEDIAN MEAN 85 th P ERG EN TILE vOTE A's PRESENTED IN THE TABLE REPRESENT THE MEAN OP THE PGA RANGES USED IN 1'HE PRA CALCULATiQNS.

PQA (9's) 0.175 0.380 0.630 0.880 1.1 30 15 50 MEAN 85 1.84E-S 1.24E-6 7.18E-8 7.49E-9

1. 20E-9 3.97E-S 3.29E-6 2.36E-7 2.78E-8 5.19E-9 5.45E-5

4. 71E-6 5.06E-7 1.05E-7 3.29E-8 9.93E-5 8.18E-6 9.21E-7 1.69E-7 4.31E-8 ANNUAL EXCEEOANCE PROBABILITIES FOR MEAN.15th,50th AND 85th PERCENTILES CONSTANT PERCENTILE'EISMIC HAZARD CURVES USING ALL e.XPERTS

CASE LLNL'8>

LI.NI. 9~

EXCEEDANCEPROB.

FOR 0.2G PEAK ACCELERATION 5x10<

4x10-5 4.x,<a-~

PEAK ACCELERATION FOR 10+ EXCEEDANCE PRO BABiLITY 0.42g 0.15g Cv

~ r nL>

. mW

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NSITIViTYEVALUATION CASE I

2 3

4 5

SITE COOK COOK COOK COOK DRESDEN SEISMICITY MODEL PCRA LLNL PCRA PCRA PCRA GROUND MOTION MODEL PCRA PCRA EPRI LLNL PCRA

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c>

o cc j

10 IP NOt.c':

SEISMIC HA7$ RD CuRVc:S BASED ON LLNL SF ISMIC SOuRCE ZONE MODE' AND RIZZO ASSOCIATES ROUND MOTION MODEL.

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g Q Ol s)I/l C4 I

(g I

~ 0 (QO Q.

-s 10 z

O 10 zz

~ ~ 7 10

~ 0 200 400 600 SOO Ippp LEGEND:

PGA I,crn/sec

)

RIZZO ASSOCIATES SEISMICITY PARAMEIERS L!.NL SEISMICITY P ARAMETEP S FIGURE 9 EFFECT OF SEISMICITY PARAMETERS ON MEAN HAZARD CURVE SENSITMtY STUDY DONALD'. COOK NUCLEAR PLANt PREPARFO FOR WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC CORP PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA HuI C Rino Associates L;c COHSUl.TANTS

I (0

I C) 10 10 NOTE:

SEISMIC HA"ARD CURVES BASED ON RIZZO ASSOCIATES SEISMICITY PARAMETERS.

I

~ 0 I

(h N

CV I

0-10 mO c.

Wo 10 z

O4I oX 4J

-~

10 zz Z

ct 10 10 0

200 400 600 800 1000 PGA (cm/sec

)

LEGEND:

RIZ 0 ASSOCIATES GROJ'ID MOTION MODEL L'-NL GROLIND MOTION MODEL EPRI GROUND MOTION MODEL FIGURE 13 EFFE'CT OF GROUND MOTION MODELS ON MEAN HAZARD CURVE SENSITMlY STUDY DONALD C.

COOK NUCLEAR PtANT PREPARED FOR

'WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC CORP.

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA Foul C Bimbo AsaocIates. Inc, COHSULTAHT5

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Ol CO 10 10

~ ~

g C 2 a

I IA Ia 0-10 I

ClC Q)Q 10 LJJoz O

4J Xo 10 4J C

zz 10 10 10 200 400 600 PGA (cm/aoc

)

800 1000 LEGEND:

RIZZO ASSOCIATES EPRI (1988),

BERNREUTER ET AL. (1989)

FIGURE 15 50 "

PERCENTILE HAZARD CURVE DRESDEN SITE SENSITMTY STUDY DONALD C.

COOK NUCLEAR PLANT PREPARED FOR WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC CORP.

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA Aul C HIzxo Aaeoclatas. Inc CON5ULTAHTS

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600 800 1000 PGA.(cm/sec2)

LLNL 85th

~

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PCRA 15th QZII]

PCRA DlsPERsIQN LLNL DISPERSION LLNL 15th I

COMPARISON OF LLNL AND PCRA SKISMIG HAZARD QURVKS Paul Q Rslo Aseooetes, Ro.

CONIVLTAHlt.

S)EC-89-1993 88: 43 AEPSC NOD 1 614 223 2884 P

~ 8M84 LLNLS-EXPERT 6 SEISMIC ZONATION SEISMICITYPARAMETERS zone 6 zone 7 zone 8 zone 9 zone 10 zone 11 zone 12 zone l3 zone 15 zone 17

~ zone 18 zone l9 zone 22 zone 25 zone 27 zone 31 zone 33 BACKG.

Mbe Mlb 7.000 6.700 6.800 6.324 6.500 6.045 6.800 6.324 6.500 6.045 6.500 6.045 6.500 6.045 5.300 5.000 7.000 6.700 6.500 6.045 6.800 6.324 6.500 6.045 7.000 6.700 6.500 6.045 7.400 7.400 6.500 6.045 7.300 7.000 7.400 7.400 Mob 7.300 7.300 6.955 7.276 6,955 7.300 6.955 7.700 6.955 7.600 7.276 6.955 7.276 6,955 6.955 6.955 5.671 ac 3.554

.000971 1.494

.017540 2.854

.003164 2.392

.006105 2.295

.005515 2.925,009691 2.201

.005661 l.771,005515 2.962

.005966 2.950

.041000 1.608

.029290 3,228

.002120 1.846

.007357 2.259

.007009 2.769

.005380 3.164

.002145 0.509

.032090 4.198

.000032

PEC-89-1993 88: 44 AEPSC NGD 1 614 223 2884 P.84i84 I

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10 K

4J Q.

10 10 Q

0 10 a'0 0

II 1

2 3

4 5

6 7

8 9

10 E+02 ACCELERATION CM/SEC~2 LEGEND:

1.

LIVERMORE, 1989 2.

UVERMORE, 1995 3.

PAUL C. RIZZO ASSOCIATES>

1991 FIGURE 1

COMPARISON QF MEAN HAZARD CURVES SEISMIC HAZARD ANALYSIS DONALD C.

COOK NUCLEAR PLANT PREPARED FOR

%WESTINGHOUSE ELECTRIC CORPORATION PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA Paul C Bizxo Associates, lac.

CONSULTAN13 TOTAL P,84

ENCLOSURE 3

NRC uestions The best estimate seismic source model zonation - Figure 3-16, explain why this map was added.

Present the table of A and B values, i.e., the parameters that were used to define the earthquake recurrence rates.

Discuss the minimum magnitude and maximum magnitude cut-offs that were used and the resultant recurrence rate slopes shapes.

Emphasis was given to matching 11/28/88 Saguenay/Canada earthquake records.

Explain why this is considered representative of eastern earthquake records.

Discuss treatment of uncertainties in ground motion modeling.

Present mean hazard data and percentile hazard data, i.e., the

15X, 50X and 85X hazard data.

Discuss any sensitivity studies that were performed to assess the different assumptions that formed the basis of the study.

Discuss Appendix B.

ENCLOSURE 4

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION TO BE PROVIDED 1.

The earthquake catalog used in the analysis.

2.

Comparison of LLNL maximum magnitudes to Rizzo maximum magnitudes for critical zones (within 300 km of the site).

3.

Seismicity Parameter Tables.

4.

Labeled attenuation figures that reference Saguenay and the magnitude of the Saguenay curves that was assumed.

5.

Clarification of which ground motion attenuation curves were used and the equations.

6.

Explanation of the propagation of uncertainty and the basis for the adequacy of the sample size (1600).

7.

Expansion of the text in Appendix B to explain input parameters and labeling of the data.

8.

Comparison of LLNL '89, LLNL '93 and Rizzo data at the mean level.

9.

Sensitivity studies showing use of other expert data vs.

Rizzo data, including tables.

10.

Clarification of data on Figures 3-17 and 3-18 and Tables 5-1 and 5-2.

MEETING

SUMMARY

FOR MEETING HELD ON 11 17 93 DISTRIBUTION W ENCLOSURES 1-4

~ Docket-File NRC 5 Local PDRs PD31 Reading B. Jorgensen, RIII B. Wetzel J.

Chen cc:

Licensee 8 Service List DISTRIBUTION WITH ENCLOSURE 1

ONLY T. Murley/F. Miraglia L. J. Callan, Acting J.

Roe J. 2wolinski A. R. Blough C. Jamerson OGC E. Jordan, MNBB-3701 G. Bagchi, 7H16 R.

Rothman, 7H18 A. Murphy, NLS216 N. Chokshi, NLS205 R. Hernan, 14C12

'M. Drouin, NLS333 G. Giese-Koch, 7G12 ACRS (10)

W. Dean,

EDO, 17G21 M. Rubin, 10E4 J. Schiffens, 10F7 DATED:

December 28, 1993

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