Mupra: a Few Observations and Technical ChallengesML17263B168 |
Person / Time |
---|
Issue date: |
09/20/2017 |
---|
From: |
NRC/RES/DRA |
---|
To: |
|
---|
References |
---|
Download: ML17263B168 (10) |
|
|
---|
Category:Meeting Briefing Package/Handouts
MONTHYEARML24304A8292024-10-10010 October 2024 PSAM17 Summary of Panel Session on Advanced Reactor PSA Needs ML24271A0122024-09-27027 September 2024 PSAM17 Panel Session Emerging PSA Needs Extended Abstract ML24271A0142024-09-27027 September 2024 PSAM17 NRC Research Activities ML24271A0112024-09-27027 September 2024 PSAM17 Panel Session Emerging PSA Needs Presentation ML24271A0132024-09-27027 September 2024 PSAM17 NRC Research Activities Presentation ML24030A0012024-01-31031 January 2024 NRC Workshop on Human Factors Considerations for Remote Operation of Nuclear Facilities ML23338A2782023-11-30030 November 2023 Perspectives on Risk-Informed Decision Making & Regulation ML22307A2352022-10-21021 October 2022 Smirt HEAF Overview ML22307A2362022-10-21021 October 2022 Smirt HEAF Zoi ML22061A0992022-02-15015 February 2022 PFHA-2022-Agenda - Final ML22041A2832022-02-0909 February 2022 Document to Support the ACRS Subcommittee Meeting Redline RG 4.7, Rev 4, General Site Suitability Criteria for Nuclear Power Stations ML21300A3782021-10-31031 October 2021 Ril 2021-12 Proceedings of the Subsurface Soil Surveys Public Workshop ML21277A1222021-08-18018 August 2021 7 John Lane FRN on Ai in Nuclear Power Aug 18, 2021 ML21167A1272021-06-16016 June 2021 2 - Lmp for Operating Reactors ML21137A1842021-05-19019 May 2021 Introductory Presentation for the 2021 Spring Meeting of the Federal Remediation Technologies Roundtable ML21138A7932021-05-13013 May 2021 RES Seminar Part 1 - Nightmares ML21138A7922021-05-13013 May 2021 RES Seminar Part 2 - Short Takes ML21099A1332021-04-12012 April 2021 Presentation on the Federal Remediation Technologies Roundtable (Frtr) to the Ramp Users Group Meeting, April 12-16, 2021 ML21098A1252021-04-0606 April 2021 1A - Opening ML21138A8102021-02-21021 February 2021 PRA and RIDM - UCLA ML21138A8052021-02-0202 February 2021 PRA Lessons from Ope Uiuc ML21138A7812020-10-22022 October 2020 PRA and RIDM NCSU ML21138A7792020-07-27027 July 2020 PRA and RIDM INL Mev ML20181A3752020-06-30030 June 2020 HEAF Presentation ML20076D8032020-03-17017 March 2020 Annual Report by Work Group 2nd Data Assimilation, Uncertainty Analysis and Environmental Model Confirmation to the 2020 Icemn Annual Public Meeting, USGS Head Quarters March 17-18, 2020 ML20100K5322020-03-12012 March 2020 NRC Fbts Workshop - Intro Slides ML20064F4082020-03-0202 March 2020 Coastal Flooding SHAC-F Research Webinar Introduction ML20043F5462020-02-14014 February 2020 Wgrisk Annual Meeting February 24-28 2019 - NRC PRA Use and Development - Rev.1 ML21138A7802019-11-25025 November 2019 PRA and RIDM Mit ML19309F6162019-11-25025 November 2019 PRA and RIDM Mit 2019-11-25 Rev. 1 Small ML19210D8352019-08-0404 August 2019 Qualitative PRA Insight from Seismic Event ML19210D8362019-08-0404 August 2019 Model Uncertainty and Adequacy ML19066A3892019-02-0505 February 2019 Dynamic PRA Seminar ML18317A0502018-11-14014 November 2018 Use of Newly Developed Methods in PRA Models November 14, 2018 ML18249A3402018-09-0606 September 2018 Qualitative PRA Insights from Operational Events (Presentation) ML18247A1482018-08-30030 August 2018 Public Meeting Sunil Slides. Use of Newly Developed Methods in PRA Models ML18116A1392018-04-27027 April 2018 Federal Remediation Technologies Presentation for the Aannual Meeting of the VA Chapter of Hps ML18114A1912018-04-25025 April 2018 Annual Report by Work Group 2- Data Assimilation, Uncertainty Assessment and Environmental Model Confirmation to the Interagency Collaborative for Environmental Modeling and Monitoring by Thomas Nicholson, NRC and WG2 Chair, April 25, 2018 ML18107A1472018-04-13013 April 2018 Environmental Modeling and Monitoring for Risk-Informed Performance-Based Assessments Presentation Slides for the Interagency Collaborative on Environmental Modeling and Monitoring (Icemm) Annual Public Meeting, April 24 - 25, 2018 at the U ML18079A1582018-03-15015 March 2018 T1 NRC - Welcome Mark Thaggard ML17263B1652017-09-20020 September 2017 PSA R&D: Changing the Way We Do Business ML17263B1682017-09-20020 September 2017 Mupra: a Few Observations and Technical Challenges 2024-09-27
[Table view]Some use of "" in your query was not closed by a matching "". Category:Slides and Viewgraphs
MONTHYEARML24271A0112024-09-27027 September 2024 PSAM17 Panel Session Emerging PSA Needs Presentation ML24271A0132024-09-27027 September 2024 PSAM17 NRC Research Activities Presentation ML24030A0012024-01-31031 January 2024 NRC Workshop on Human Factors Considerations for Remote Operation of Nuclear Facilities ML23338A2782023-11-30030 November 2023 Perspectives on Risk-Informed Decision Making & Regulation ML22307A2352022-10-21021 October 2022 Smirt HEAF Overview ML22307A2362022-10-21021 October 2022 Smirt HEAF Zoi ML22223A1162022-04-21021 April 2022 Sources of Uncertainty in Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) ML22049B5462022-03-0808 March 2022 RIC 2022 Digital Exhibit 11 Research Update: Completion of Phase 1 Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research ML22061A1212022-02-15015 February 2022 2B-2_of_4-AWA_Attera_Stochastic_PFHA_Riverine_Site-SLIDES ML22061A1372022-02-15015 February 2022 1A-2_of_4-Aird-NRC_PFHA_Research_Update-SLIDES ML22061A1382022-02-15015 February 2022 1A-1_of_4-Furstenau_Intro-FINAL-SLIDES ML22061A1162022-02-15015 February 2022 3A-3_of_6-Ho-WAT_Interface-Poster-SLIDES ML21300A3782021-10-31031 October 2021 Ril 2021-12 Proceedings of the Subsurface Soil Surveys Public Workshop ML21291A1852021-10-20020 October 2021 HEAF - RES ML21277A1222021-08-18018 August 2021 7 John Lane FRN on Ai in Nuclear Power Aug 18, 2021 ML21208A2232021-07-27027 July 2021 2-7 Low Level Radioactive Objects at a Former Dod Facility ML21208A2182021-07-15015 July 2021 2-2-Development of Dcgls for Subsurface Residual Radioactivity ML21208A2202021-07-15015 July 2021 2-4-Elevated Areas or Hots Spots in the Subsurface ML21208A2132021-07-14014 July 2021 1-1-NRC Overview Presentation: Subsurface Surveys Workshop ML21167A1272021-06-16016 June 2021 2 - Lmp for Operating Reactors ML21137A1842021-05-19019 May 2021 Introductory Presentation for the 2021 Spring Meeting of the Federal Remediation Technologies Roundtable ML21138A8772021-05-18018 May 2021 U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Perspectives Remediation Challenges Over the Next Decade by Mark Thaggard ML21138A7922021-05-13013 May 2021 RES Seminar Part 2 - Short Takes ML21138A7932021-05-13013 May 2021 RES Seminar Part 1 - Nightmares ML21099A1332021-04-12012 April 2021 Presentation on the Federal Remediation Technologies Roundtable (Frtr) to the Ramp Users Group Meeting, April 12-16, 2021 ML21098A1252021-04-0606 April 2021 1A - Opening ML21078A5032021-02-26026 February 2021 NRC Regulatory Information Conference (RIC) RIC 2021 Panel Session M5 Slides on Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) ML21138A8102021-02-21021 February 2021 PRA and RIDM - UCLA ML21138A8052021-02-0202 February 2021 PRA Lessons from Ope Uiuc ML21027A2132021-01-31031 January 2021 Proceedings of the Fifth Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop ML21138A7812020-10-22022 October 2020 PRA and RIDM NCSU ML20293A3702020-10-22022 October 2020 PRA and Risk-Informed Decision Making at the NRC: Some Trends and Challenges (NCSU Lecture) ML21138A7792020-07-27027 July 2020 PRA and RIDM INL Mev ML20203M3362020-07-22022 July 2020 Meeting Slides for 7-22-20 Public Meeting on Status of NRC Endorsement of the Advanced Non-LWR PRA Standard and NEI 20-09 ML20195B1572020-07-20020 July 2020 PRA and Risk-Informed Decision Making at the NRC: Some Trends and Challenges (Mev Lecture) ML20181A3752020-06-30030 June 2020 HEAF Presentation ML20076D8032020-03-17017 March 2020 Annual Report by Work Group 2nd Data Assimilation, Uncertainty Analysis and Environmental Model Confirmation to the 2020 Icemn Annual Public Meeting, USGS Head Quarters March 17-18, 2020 ML20100K5322020-03-12012 March 2020 NRC Fbts Workshop - Intro Slides ML20064F4082020-03-0202 March 2020 Coastal Flooding SHAC-F Research Webinar Introduction ML20043F5462020-02-14014 February 2020 Wgrisk Annual Meeting February 24-28 2019 - NRC PRA Use and Development - Rev.1 ML21138A7802019-11-25025 November 2019 PRA and RIDM Mit ML19309F6162019-11-25025 November 2019 PRA and RIDM Mit 2019-11-25 Rev. 1 Small ML19210D8352019-08-0404 August 2019 Qualitative PRA Insight from Seismic Event ML19210D8362019-08-0404 August 2019 Model Uncertainty and Adequacy ML19162A4122019-06-13013 June 2019 01_07 Task 15 Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis ML19162A4152019-06-13013 June 2019 01_00 Snpp at-Power PRA Model Development ML19162A4162019-06-13013 June 2019 01_01 Introduction-Overview ML19162A4172019-06-13013 June 2019 01_02 Sample Plant Overview ML19162A4182019-06-13013 June 2019 01_03 Task 2 Comp Select ML19162A4192019-06-13013 June 2019 01_04 Task 5 Risk Model 2024-09-27
[Table view]Some use of "" in your query was not closed by a matching "". |
Text
MUPRA: A Few Observations and Technical Challenges N. Siu and D. Hudson Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Presented at Special Session #2:
MUPRA Advances, Issues, Impediments and Promise ANS International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA 2017)
Pittsburgh, PA; September 24-28, 2017
Multi-Unit Precursor Events Date Plant Description Date Plant Description 6/22/82 Quad Cities LOOP, Maintenance 8/14/03 6 Sites LOOP, NE Blackout 8/11/83 Salem LOOP, Clogged screens 6/14/04 Palo Verde LOOP, Offsite fault 7/26/84 Susquehanna SBO, Bkr mis-aligned 9/25/04 St. Lucie LOOP, Hurricane 5/17/85 Turkey Point LOOP, Brush fires 5/20/06 Catawba LOOP, Switchyard fault 7/23/87 Calvert Cliffs LOOP, Offsite tree 3/26/09 Sequoyah LOOP, Bus fault 3/20/90 Vogtle LOOP, Truck hit support 4/16/11 Surry LOOP, Tornado 8/24/92 Turkey Point LOOP, Hurricane 4/27/11 Browns Ferry LOOP, Winds/tornadoes 12/31/92 Sequoyah LOOP, Switchyard fault 8/23/11 North Anna LOOP, Earthquake 10/12/93 Beaver Valley LOOP, Offsite fault 3/31/13 ANO LOOP/Trip, Load drop Trip, Foreign material in 6/28/96 LaSalle SW Tunnel 4/17/13 LaSalle LOOP, Lightning 6/29/96 Prairie Island LOOP, High winds 5/25/14 Millstone LOOP, Offsite fault 2
Some Other Old But Illustrative Events Event Notes Event Notes Large TB explosion and fire, smoke Browns Ferry Multi-unit cable fire; both units Narora => U1/U2 MCR abandonment; U1 (BWR, 1975) tripped. (PHWR, 1993) SBO, U2 cold shutdown.
Electrical cable fire; U1 station Extensive, extended flooding. Roads Greifswald blackout (SBO), U2 tripped.
Cooper (one evacuation route) blocked.
(VVER, 1975) Shutdown used x-tie with U2 (BWR, 1993) Leakage through penetrations seals.
U3 maintenance activity leads to Large storm causes LOOP (U2/U4),
Oconee large lake flood in common Turbine Blayais flooding of U1/U2, affected site (PWR, 1976) Building (TB); lost TD-EFW. (PWR, 1999) access.
Large steam release in TB; also Doel Large seawater flood in common Mihama entered portions of control and (PWR, 1979) U1/U2 TB; both units tripped. (PWR, 2004) intermediate buildings.
Electrical cable fire (multiple Large water leak lifts U2 TB floor, Armenia locations), smoke spread to U1 Nogent also floods U1 TB, enters ESW (VVER, 1982) MCR, secondary explosions and (PWR, 2006) gallery through penetrations, CCW fire; U1 SBO, U2 tripped. pump room through drains Heavy rainfall floods Unit 1 TB and Chernobyl Large TB explosion and fire, partial Surry U2 ESGR through manhole and (RBMK, 1991) roof collapse. Only U2 affected. (PWR, 2006) conduit penetrations 3
3
Operational Experience Observations
- Many events caused by spatial (internal and external) hazards
- involve single units, and/or
- were terminated before serious plant impact, but mechanisms are relevant to MUPRA
- All observed mechanisms and scenarios are relevant to (and should, in principle, be captured by) single-unit PRA
- Assumed defenses (e.g., seals, equipment qualification) and other screening factors may need re-examination 4
L3PRA Overview
- Develop state-of-practice Level 3 PRA
- Extract new insights
- Enhance NRC PRA staff capability and expertise
- Demonstrate technical feasibility and cost of new Level 3 PRAs
- All hazards
- All operational modes
- All major sources
- Plant: Vogtle 1&2 (special thanks to SNC for support) 5
L3PRA Integrated Site Risk Approach*
- Logical combination of important single source scenarios (assumed symmetry)
- Inter-source dependencies (5 types)
- Parallel, independent search for scenarios 6 *See ML17255A580 for details.
New Tools to Aid Searches
- Operational experience reports and other sources can spur (and temper) imagination
- Database is massive and unstructured; how to efficiently identify, access, and analyze data?
- Recently completed scoping study (long-term research)
- Currently available technology (content analytics) can efficiently identify important target documents
- Increased subject matter expert involvement or more powerful machine learning tools would help in development of industrial strength applications 7
ADDITIONAL SLIDES Multi-Unit Precursor Events Date Plant Type CCDP Date Plant Type CCDP 6/22/82 Quad Cities LOOP 1E-4 6 Sites (NE 4E-6 to 8/14/03 LOOP Blackout) 3E-5 8/11/83 Salem LOOP 1E-4 7/26/84 Susquehanna SBO 2E-4 6/14/04 Palo Verde LOOP 9E-6/4E-5 5/17/85 Turkey Point LOOP 4E-5 9/25/04 St. Lucie LOOP 1E-5 7/23/87 Calvert Cliffs LOOP 5E-4 5/20/06 Catawba LOOP 9E-5/6E-5 3/20/90 Vogtle LOOP 9E-4 3/26/09 Sequoyah LOOP 4E-6 8/24/92 Turkey Point LOOP 2E-4 4/16/11 Surry LOOP 9E-5/7E-5 12/31/92 Sequoyah LOOP 2E-4 4/27/11 Browns Ferry LOOP 1E-5 10/12/93 Beaver Valley LOOP 6E-5 8/23/11 North Anna LOOP 3E-4/6E-5 6/28/96 LaSalle Trip 7E-6 3/31/13 ANO LOOP/Trip Yellow 6/29/96 Prairie Island LOOP 5E-5 4/17/13 LaSalle LOOP 1E-5 5/25/14 Millstone LOOP 2E-5/1E-5 9
Inter-Source Dependencies 10