ML17212A784
| ML17212A784 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Saint Lucie  |
| Issue date: | 09/02/1981 |
| From: | Muller D Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| To: | Ernst M Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| Shared Package | |
| ML17212A783 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8109230705 | |
| Download: ML17212A784 (9) | |
Text
UNITED STATES CLEAR REGULATORY COMMISS WASHINGTON, D. C. 20555 SEP 0 2 t981 MEMORANDUM TO FROM:
SUBJECT:
Robert L. Tedesco, Assistant Director for Licensing, DOL Daniel R. Muller, Assistant Director for Environmental Technology, DE RECENT POPULATION DATA AND PROJECTIONS FOR ST.
LUCIE SITE The Siting Analysis Branch, as a result of its review of the OL application for St. Lucie Unit 2, has recently received more recent population data and projections for the St. Lucie site vicinity than are currently in the FSAR.
We have requested that the FSAR be updatedand the applicant has agreed to do so.
The latest data is based upon the 1980 Census which has very recently become available plus site surveys and discussions with local planning officials.
Briefly, the data indicate that there has been substantial growth in the vicinity of St. Lucie from 1970 to 1980, and that a high population growth rate within 10 miles is projected for the future.
The attached table presents the latest cumulative population and population density values around the St. Lucie site'for the years
- 1981, 1983 (estimated year of plant start-up),
and for successive census years until year 2020 (estimated end of plant life).
The table indicates that the close-in population within 5 and 10'miles to'wards the end of plant life is projected to equal or exceed the 1970 values for sites such as Limerick and Indian Point.
As you know, population considerations for proposed sites applying for a CP have been published by the staff in Regulatory Guide 4.7, "General Site Suit-ability Criteria for Nuclear Power Stations" November 1975.
This guide states in part as follows:
"If the population density, including weighted transient population, projected at the time of initial operation of a nuclear power station exceeds 500 persons per square mile averaged over any radial distance out to 30 miles (cumulative population at a distance divided by the area at that distance),
or the projected population density over the lifetime of the facility exceeds 1000 persons per square mile averaged over any radial distance out to 30 miles, special attention should be be given to the consideration of alternative sites with lower population densities."
As indicated by the staff cr iteria, a site that exceeds these population density "trip" levels can nevertheless be selected and approved if, on
- balance, H offers advantages compared with available alternative sites when all of the environmental, safety and economic aspects forthe proposed site and the alternative sites are considered.
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As shown on the attached table, the population density for the St. Lucie site slightly exceeds the "trip" levels only at the end of plant life, in year 2020 and at distances of 5 and 10 miles.
However, Regulatory Guide 4.7 was intended for consideration of proposed and alternative sites at the CP stage only.
In order to gain further insight in this regard, we estimated.how the population density near the St. Lucie site might compare in future years with other reactor sites.
The staff, in SECY 81-20, performed a survey with respect to population times reactor power level for 93 reactor sites, either operating, under construction or planned.
This survey, using 1970 Census
- data, arranged each site into one of 5 groups labelled "Below Average," "Average," "Slightly Above Average,"
"Above Average,"
and Significantly Above Average."
The staff proposed that special probabilistic risk assessment studies be carried out for 11 sites comprising the two highest groups ("Above Average" and Significantly Above Average" ).
Making the assumption that the population for all other reactor sites increases at the national growth rate, the classification for the St. Lucie site as a
function of time is shown below.
Year Relative Po ulation Classification Of St. Lucie Site 1970 1981 1983 1990 2000 2010 2020 Average Average Average Slightly Above Average Slightly Above Average Above Average
'Above Average On the-basis of its population growth rate which is projected, although not for many years, to place it into a category considered appropriate for the performance of a probabilistic risk assessment
- study, we therefore recommend that consideration be given to requesting that the St. Lucie applicant perform and submit such a study.
We also recoranend'that the Emergency Preparedness Branch review factor the pro-jected population growth into the review procedures in view of the relatively large number of persons projected to be within the 10-mile plume exposure EPZ towards the end of. plant life.
SEP 02 fg8>
Finally, the discussion on environmental impact of postulated accidents described in the staff's DES will require revision.
We understand that such revisions will be incorporated in the FES.
Attachment:
As stated Daniel R. Muller, Assistant Director for Environmental Technology Division of Engineering cc:
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ST.
LUCIE RESIDENT POPULATION DATA 1981 1983 Dist., miles 0-1 C~um.
Po Densit (peop e mi
)
0
~Cum.
Po 0
~Densi t (people/mi
)
0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-10 0-20.
0-30 186 379 1578 10,336 91,512 153D890 236,879 15.
13.
31.
132; 291.
122.
84.
490 849 2413 12,506 98,167 196,334 267,920 39.
30..
48.
159.
312.
156.
95.
1990 2000 Dist miles
~Cum.
Po
~Densit (people/mi
)
~Cum.
Po
~Densit (people/mi
)
0-1 0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-10 0-20 0-30 0
-998 2303
'051 24~374 121,697 223,039 334,736 72.
81.
160.
310.
387.
177.
118.
2082 6050 18%398 42,831 163,115 307,926 439,912 166.
214.
366.
545.
519.
245.
156.
2020 Dist.
mi 1 es
~Cum.Po
~Densit (people/mi
)
~Cum.
Po
~Densi t (people/mi
).
0-1 0-2 0-3 0-4 0-5 0-10 0-20 0-30 2457 8534 27 I326 59,832 223,486 403,694 550,756 0
196.
302.
544.
762.
711.
321.
195.
0 2457 12,338 41,348 83,588 317,033 548,696 711,462 196.
436.
823.
1064.
1009.
437.
252.
~
~
I P