Text

Attachment 3 - Beaver Valley Power Station Evaluation to Revise the Emergency Planning Zone, Prepared by Kld Engineering, P.C., Kld TR-641, Rev. 1
	ML14247A515
Person / Time
Site:	Beaver Valley
Issue date:	02/27/2014
From:	; KLD Engineering, PC
To:	; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
Shared Package
ML14247A512	List: L-14-280, License Amendment Request to Modify Emergency Preparedness Plan Regarding the Emergency Planning Zone Boundary; ML14247A513; ML14247A515;
References
	KLD TR-641, Rev. 1
	Download: ML14247A515 (21)
	v • d • e

Attachment 3 Beaver Valley Power Station Evaluation to Revise the Emergency Planning Zone, prepared by KLD Engineering, P.C.,

KLD TR-641 (20 pages follow)

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1601 Veterans Memorial Highway, Suite 340 Islandia, NY 11749 mailto: kweinisch@kldcompanies.com Final Report, Rev. 1 KLDTR-641

1 INTRODUCTION Item number 2 in Part I, Section D of NUREG-0654 FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1 defines the Emergency Planning Zones (EPZs) for nuclear power plants "as the areas for which planning is needed to assure that prompt and effective actions can be taken to protect the public in the event of an accident." Additionally:

The Task Force [Nuclear Regulatory Commission and Environmental Protection Agency]

selected a radius of about 10 miles for the plume exposure pathway... Although the radius for the EPZ implies a circular area, the actual shape would depend on the characteristics of a particular site.

The basis for the selection of a 10-mile radius is also explained in item number 2 in Part I, Section D of NUREG-0654 FEMA-REP-1:

The size (about 10 miles radius) of the plume exposure EPZ was based primarily on the following considerations:

a.

Projected doses from the traditional design basis accidents would not exceed Protective Action Guide levels outside the zone;

b. Projected doses from most core melt sequences would not exceed Protective Action Guide levels outside of the zone;

c.

For the worst core melt sequences, immediate life threatening doses would generally not occur outside the zone;

d. Detailed planning within 10 miles would provide substantial base expansion of response efforts in the event that this proved necessary.

The Beaver Valley Power Station (BVPS) is located in Shippingport in Beaver County, Pennsylvania and is operated by FirstEnergy. The Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) for the BVPS was established during licensing in the 1985 Safety Evaluation Report (SER). Figure 1 shows the EPZ boundary that was documented in the 1985 SER. As shown in Figure 1, the EPZ extends well beyond the 10-mile radius to the southwest, northwest and northeast. At the request of the County Emergency Management agencies in Beaver, Columbiana, and Hancock Counties, FirstEnergy is proposing a new EPZ boundary shown in Figure 2. This proposed EPZ boundary was used in the Development of Evacuation Times Estimate for the Beaver Valley Power Station study, dated December 2012 (KLD TR-495). FirstEnergy is working with the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Offsite Response Organizations (OROs) in the EPZ to formally change the BVPS EPZ boundary to that used in the 2012 ETE study.

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Part IV, Section K of the June 2013 FEMA Radiological Emergency Planning (REP) Manual outlines the process for making EPZ Boundary Changes:

If an ORO wants to change the boundary of an existing EPZ, the proposal must be submitted to the FEMA Regional Administrator or his/her designee, usually the RAC [Regional Assistance Committee] Chair. The proposal shall include, but not be limited to:

Action by appropriate ORO officials desiring the change to the boundary (i.e.,

resolution by elected officiat etc.);

Description of the change to the boundary; Discussion of the population affected by the change; Effect that the change has on evacuation routes or evacuation time estimates; and Maps showing the existing EPZ boundary and proposed new boundary.

FEMA and the RAC will review the request on its merits. After the regional review, the request and RAC recommendation will be forwarded to FEMA Headquarters for final action.

If the EPZ boundary change is approved, the approval is contingent on the ORO submitting for review the appropriate changes to their plans/procedures, maps of the EPZ, public information material, and impact that the addition or subtraction of population from the EPZ has on the evacuation time estimates. The required information would include changes to the geographical boundary descriptions and the ANS [Alert and Notification SystemL including additional sirens or other means for public notification. Any modifications to an ANS must be consistent with FEMA-REP-10.

2 PROCESS This section describes how each item of the REP Manual process for making EPZ boundary changes was considered.

2.1 Action by Appropriate ORO Officials Desiring the Change to the Boundary FirstEnergy will deliver this report to the ORO officials for each of the three counties and three states within the EPZ. FirstEnergy and the ORO officials will work with FEMA to resolve any issues that may develop in the process of formally changing the EPZ boundary.

2.2 Description of the Changes to the Boundary/Maps Showing the Existing EPZ Boundary and Proposed New Boundary Table 1 describes the existing BVPS EPZ boundary, itemized by state, as defined in the 1985 SER.

As discussed earlier, Figure 1 displays the existing EPZ boundary as documented in the 1985 SER. Table 2 describes the proposed BVPS EPZ boundary, itemized by state, as defined in the 2012 BVPS ETE Study (KLD TR-495). The aforementioned Figure 2 displays the proposed EPZ boundary.

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Table 3 and Figure 3 describe and display the differences between the existing and proposed EPZ boundaries. Deletions to the 1985 EPZ description are shown in strike-out text format; insertions to the 2012 EPZ description are shown in underlined text format in Table 3. The portions of the existing 1985 EPZ that have been removed for the proposed 2012 EPZ are shown with red hatching in Figure 3.

Note that the 2012 EPZ divides the 10-mile EPZ into several Sub-Areas, designated as P-#, W-#

and 0-# depending on the state where the Sub-Area is located. As per the federal guidance document NUREG/CR-7002- "Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies"-

these Sub-Areas are "local areas within the EPZ for which emergency response information is provided." Also, "these areas are typically defined by geographic or political boundaries to support emergency response planning... " These Sub-Areas support the concept of a keyhole evacuation discussed in Section 1.4 of NUREG/CR-7002.

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Table 1. Existing EPZ Boundary Description (1985}

Pennsylvania Begin at the junction of the Ohio/Pennsylvania State Line and Pennsylvania Route 251. Follow Route 251 east to its junction with Pennsylvania Route 51. Proceed southeast on Route 51 to where it meets Pennsylvania Route 588. Proceed east on Pennsylvania Route 588 to where the Chippewa Township, Patterson Township, and White Township boundaries meet. Continue east on Pennsylvania Route 588 to its junction with 25th Street in Beaver Falls Township. Proceed east on 25th Street until Beaver River. Proceed South down Beaver River following the Beaver Falls Township and Daugherty Township boundary. Continue following Beaver River until the junction of Bridgewater Township, Monaca Township, and Rochester Township. Proceed east to follow the Ohio River to its junction with Ambridge Township, Crescent Township, Leetsdale Township, and Sout h Heights Township. Proceed southwest on the Beaver County and Allegheny County boundary to where the Allegheny County, Beaver County, and Washington County boundaries meet. Proceed west on the Beaver County and Washington County boundary to its junction with the Pennsylvania/West Virginia State Line. Proceed north on the Pennsylvania/West Virginia State line until the intersection with Shreeves Road (Co Hwy 7/8).

West Virginia Begin at the intersection of the Pennsylvania/West Virginia State Line and County Road 7/8. Follow Co Road 7/8 west to its junction with Co Road 7/6. Proceed north on Co Road 6/7 to its junction with Co Road 9/2. Follow Co Road 9/2 west to its junction with Co Road 9. Proceed north on Co Road 9 to its junction with Co Road 7. Follow Co Road 7 west to where it meets a clearing for power lines. Follow the power line corridor north to where it coincides with Gibble Hill Road. Follow Gibble Hill Road north to its junction with Co Road 66/2. Proceed west, then north on Co Road 66/2. Where Co Road 66/2 bends westward, continue north until Welton Road, paralleling West Virginia Route 2. Proceed west on Welton Road to its junction with West Virginia Route 2. Proceed north on West Virginia Route 2 to its junction with Congo Road. Follow Congo Road to the Ohio River, ending at the West Virginia State Line/Ohio State Line boundary.

Ohio Begin at where Congo Road would intersect the West Virginia/Ohio State Line if it were to continue north. Proceed east on the Ohio River following the Ohio/West Virginia State line to where it would intersect Co Hwy 716 if Co Hwy 716 continued south. Proceed north on Co Hwy 716 to its junction with Co Hwy 1004. Follow Co Hwy 1004 north to its junction with Co Hwy 1039. Proceed north on Co Hwy 1004 to its junction with Co Hwy 428. Follow Co Hwy 428 north to its junction with Little Beaver Creek. Follow Little Beaver Creek north for approximately 1.5 miles.

Proceed north, following a residential driveway to the junction with Co Hwy 1032 and Ohio Route 170. Follow Ohio Route 170 north to its junction with Co Hwy 1026. Follow Co Hwy 1026 east to its junction with Ohio Route 154. End at the Ohio/Pennsylvania State Line.

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Table 2. Proposed EPZ Boundary {2012)

Pennsylvania The EPZ is defined as the area that begins at the junction of the Ohio/Pennsylvania State Line and Pennsylvania Route 251. Follow Route 251 east to its junction with Pennsylvania Route 51. Proceed southeast on Route 51 to where it meets the northwest corporate boundary of Patterson Township. Proceed east/northeast on the Patterson Township line to the point where the White Township, Beaver Falls City, and Patterson Township corporate boundaries meet.

Proceed south on the Patterson Township/Beaver Falls City corporate boundary to its junction with the Patterson Heights Borough corporate boundary. Continue southeast on the Patterson Heights/Beaver Falls City corporate boundary to the Beaver River.

Proceed south on the Beaver River to the junction of the Ohio River. Proceed east, then south on the Ohio River to its intersection with the Beaver County and Allegheny County boundary.

Proceed southwest on the Beaver County and Allegheny County boundary to where the Allegheny County, Beaver County, and Washington County corporate boundaries meet. Proceed west on the Beaver County and Washington County boundary to its junction with the Pennsylvania/West Virginia State Line.

Proceed north on the Pennsylvania/West Virginia State line to its junction with the Ohio/West Virginia State line.

Proceed north on the Ohio/Pennsylvania State line to its junction with Pennsylvania Route 251.

West Virginia The EPZ is defined as the area that begins at the intersection of the Pennsylvania/West Virginia State Line and Shreeves Road (County Road 7 /8).

Follow Shreeves Road (Co Road 7 /8) west to its junction with Cameron Hollow (Co Road 7 /6). Proceed north on Cameron Hollow (Co Road 7 /6) to its junction with Chapman Road (Co Road 9/2). Follow Chapman Road (Co Road 9/2) west to its junction with Wylie Ridge Road (Co Road 9).

Proceed north on Wylie Ridge Road (Co Road 9) to its junction with Hardens Run (Co Road 7). Follow Hardens Run (Co Road 7) west to where it meets Mayhew Rd (Co Road 7 /1). Proceed north on Mayhew Rd until its junction with Frankfort Road (Co Road 24). Follow Frankfort Road (Co Road 24) north until its intersection with Archer Street. Follow Archer Street until its junction with West Virginia State Route 8 (Veterans Boulevard). Follow West Virginia State Route 8 (Veterans Boulevard) west until its junction with Washington School Road (Co Road 3).

Proceed north on Washington School Road (Co Road 3) until its junction with Ferndale Road (County Road 3/5). Proceed west, on Ferndale Road (County Road 3/5) to a point parallel to but 14 mile east of State Route 2 (Ohio River Blvd) (excludes residences along State Route 2). Continue north parallel but 14 mile east of State Route 2 to White Oak Run Road (Co Road 6). Follow White Oak Run Road (Co Road 6) until its junction with Arroyo Road (Co Road 3/6). Continue north on Arroyo Road (Co Road 3/6) until the junction with West Virginia State Route 2 (Ohio River Blvd) and Congo Road. Follow Congo Road to the Ohio River, ending at the West Virginia State Line/Ohio State Line boundary.

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Ohio The EPZ is defined as the area that begins in the middle of the Ohio River where Congo Road (in West Virginia) would intersect the West Virginia/Ohio State Line if it were to continue north. Proceed east on the Ohio River following the Ohio/West Virginia State line to where it would intersect Campground Road (Co Hwy 427) if Campground Road (Co Hwy 427) continued south. Proceed north on Campground Road (Co Hwy 427) to its junction with Annesley Road (Co Hwy 963). Follow Annesley Road (Co Hwy 963) north until it turns into Co Hwy 966. Proceed north on Annesley Road (Co Hwy 966) to its junction with East Liverpool Road (Co Hwy 425). Follow East Liverpool Road (Co Hwy 425) northwest to its junction with Cannon Mills Road (Co Hwy 1004). Follow Cannon Mills Road (Co Hwy 1004) to its junction with Sprucevale Road (Co Hwy 428). Follow Sprucevale Road (Co Hwy 428) north to its junction with Little Beaver Creek. Follow Little Beaver Creek north to its junction with Ohio Route 170. Follow Ohio Route 170 north to its junction with Pancake-Clarkson Road (Co Hwy 1031). Follow Pancake-Clarkson Road (Co Hwy 1031) east to the Ohio State Line/Pennsylvania State Line.

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Table 3. Changes to EPZ Boundary Pennsylvania The EPZ is defined as the area that -B.Qegin~ at the junction of the Ohio/Pennsylvania State Line and Pennsylvania Route 251. Follow Route 251 east to its junction with Pennsylvania Route 51. Proceed southeast on Route 51 to where it meets the northwest corporate boundary of Patterson Township. Pennsylvania Ro~:.~te 588. Proceed east/northeast on the Patterson Township line to the point where the White Township, Beaver Falls City, and Patterson Township corporate boundaries meet. on Pennsylvania Ro~:.~te 588 to wt:lere tt:le CRif3f3ewa TownsRif3, Patterson TownsRif3, and

\\A/Rite TmunsRif3 bo~:.~ndaries meet.

Proceed south on the Patterson Township/Beaver Falls City corporate boundary to its junction with the Patterson Heights Borough corporate boundary. Continue southeast on the Patterson Heights/Beaver Falls City corporate boundary to the Contin~:.~e east on Penns*1lvania Ro~:.~te S88 to its it:~ncti o n witR 2StR Street in Beaver Falls Townst:lis. Proceed east on 2StR Street ~:.~ntil Beaver River.

Proceed south 6ewfl on the Beaver River to the junction of the Ohio River. following tt:le Beaver Falls TownsRif3 and Da~:.~gt:lerty Tm.vnsRif3 bo~:.~ndary. Contin~:.~e following Beaver River ~:.~ntil tt:le j~:.~nction of Bridgewater TownsRif3, Monaca TownsRif3, and Roct:lester TownsRif3. Proceed east, then south on the to follow tt:le Ohio River to its intersection with the Beaver County and Allegheny County boundary. i~:.~nction witR Ambridge TownsRi f3, Crescent Tm.vnsRif3, Leetsdale TownsRif3, and So~:.~tt:l l=leigt:lts TownsRif3.

Proceed southwest on the Beaver County and Allegheny County boundary to where the Allegheny County, Beaver County, and Washington County corporate boundaries meet. Proceed west on the Beaver County and Washington County boundary to its junction with the Pennsylvania/West Virginia State Line.

Proceed north on the Pennsylvania/West Virginia State line

~:.~ntil tt:le intersection witR St:lreeves Road (Co l=lwy 7/8).to its junction with the Ohio/West Virginia State line. Proceed north on the Ohio/Pennsylvania State line to its junction with Pennsylvania Route 251.

West Virginia The EPZ is defined as the area that -B.Qegin~ at th~ intersection of the Pennsylvania/West Virginia State Line and Shreeves Road (County Road 7/81.

Follow Shreeves Road {Co Road 7/81 west to its junction with Cameron Hollow {Co Road 7/61. Proceed north on Cameron Hollow (Co Road 6/71 to its junction with Chapman Road {Co Road 9/21. Follow Chapman Road {Co Road 9/21 west to its junction with Wylie Ridge Road (Co Road 91.

Proceed north on Wylie Ridge Road (Co Road 91 to its junction with Hardens Run (Co Road 71. Follow Hardens Run (Co Road 71 west to where it meets a clearing for f30wer lines. ~ollow tt:le f30wer line corridor nortR to wt:lere it coincides witR Gibble l=lill Road. ~ollow Gibble l=lill Road nortR to its j~:.~ncti o n witR Co Road ee/2. Proceed west, tt:len nortR on Co Road ee/2. \\'\\'t:lere Co Road ee/2 bends westward, contin~:.~e nortR ~:.~ntil \\A/elton Road, 13aralleling \\Jest Virginia Ro~:.~te 2. Proceed west on \\A/elton Road to its j~:.~nction witR 'Nest Virginia Ro~:.~te 2. Proceed nortR on \\Vest Virginia Ro~:.~te 2 to its j~:.~nction witR Congo Road.Mahyew Rd (Co Road 7/1). Proceed north on Mayhew Rd until its junction with Frankfort Road (Co Road 24). Follow Frankfort Road (Co Road 24) north until its intersection with Archer Street. Follow Archer Street until its junction with West Virginia State Route 8 (Veterans Boulevard). Follow West Virginia State Route 8 (Veterans Boulevard) west until its junction with Washington School Road Beaver Valley Power Station Revised EPZ 9

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(Co Road 3).

Proceed north on Washington School Road (Co Road 3) until its junction with Ferndale Road (County Road 3/5). Proceed west, on Ferndale Road (County Road 3/5) to a point parallel to but X mile east of State Route 2 (Ohio River Blvd) (excludes residences along State Route 2). Continue north parallel but X mile east of State Route 2 to White Oak Run Road (Co Road 6). Follow White Oak Run Road (Co Road 6) until its junction with Arroyo Road (Co Road 3/6). Continue north on Arroyo Road (Co Road 3/6) until the junction with West Virginia State Route 2 (Ohio River Blvd) and Congo Road. Follow Congo Road to the Ohio River, ending at the West Virginia State Line/Ohio State Line boundary.

Ohio The EPZ is defined as the area that -B.Qegin~ in the middle of the Ohio River at where Congo Road (in West Virginia) would intersect the West Virginia/Ohio State Line if it were to continue north. Proceed east on the Ohio River following the Ohio/West Virginia State line to where it would intersect Campground Road (Co Hwy 7-19427) if Campground Road (Co Hwy 7-19 427) continued south. Proceed north on Campground Road (Co Hwy 7-19427) to its junction with Annesley Road (Co Hwy +/-GQ4963). Follow Annesley Road (Co Hwy +/-GQ4963) north until it turns into ~

j1::1nction with Co Hwy 966~. Proceed north on Annesley Road (Co Hwy 966)+/-GQ4 to its junction with East Liverpool Road (Co Hwy 425)~.

Follow East Liverpool Road (Co Hwy 425)~ northwest to its junction with Cannon Mills Road (Co Hwy 1004)Little Beaver Creek. Follow Cannon Mills Road (Co Hwy 1004) to its junction with Sprucevale Road (Co Hwy 428). Follow Sprucevale Road (Co Hwy 428) north to its junction with Little Beaver Creek. Follow Little Beaver Creek north to its junction with Ohio Route 170. for apprmcirnately 1.5 rniles. Proceed north, following a residential driveway to the j1::1nction with Co 1=4wy 1032 and Ohio Ro1::1te 170. Follow Ohio Route 170 north to its junction with Pancake-Clarkson Road (Co Hwy 1031-+/-m-e)-: ~allow Co 1=4wy 102i east to its j1::1nction with Ohio Ro1::1te 154. fnd at the Ohio/Pennsylvania State Line.

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2.3 Discussion of the Population Affected by the Change 2.3.1 Permanent Resident Population Table 4 provides the permanent resident population within the EPZ, by sub-area, for the 1985 EPZ boundary and the 2012 EPZ boundary. Population estimates are based upon U.S. Census 2010 data. The proposed changes to the EPZ boundary result in a reduction in the permanent resident population of 8,833 people, or 7%.

As shown in Table 4, Sub-Area 0-4 results in the largest percent change by Sub-Area of EPZ residents. Since so few people live in Sub-Area 0-4, the changes in the EPZ boundary, shown in Figure 3, result in a permanent resident population reduction of 48%. Sub-Area P-8, however, results in a reduction of 6,309 permanent residents. Although a smaller percentage change by Sub-Area (29%) than 0-4, the change in population in this Sub-Area accounts for 5% of the 7%

overall change in EPZ population. The significant reduction of permanent residents in Sub-Area P-8 is the result of the elimination of the city of Beaver Falls from the proposed EPZ. The population center of Beaver Falls is located approximately 11 miles northeast of BVPS, beyond the recommended 10-mile plume exposure pathway.

Sub-Area P-1 P-2 P-3 P-4 P-5 P-6 P-7 P-8 P-9 P-10 P-11 P-12 0-1 0-2 0-3 0-4 W-1 W-2 W-3 TOTAL Beaver Valley Power Station Revised EPZ Table 4. Permanent Resident Population 1985 EPZ 2012 EPZ Difference Population Population 3,680 3,680 0

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6,305 6,182 123 21,670 15,361 6,309 17,718 17,718 0

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14,473 14,174 299 6,237 5,428 809 301 156 145 6,364 6,173 191 2,335 2,109 226 1,897 1,166 731 122,260 113,427 8,833 12

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2.3.2 Employee Population Employees who work within the EPZ fall into two categories:

Those who live and work in the EPZ Those who live outside of the EPZ and commute to jobs within the EPZ.

Those of the first category are already counted as part of the permanent resident population. To avoid double counting, we focus only on those employees commuting from outside the EPZ who will evacuate along with the permanent resident population.

Section 2.1.2 of NUREG/CR-7002 indicates that major employers (SO or more employees working a single shift) should be considered. Major employers typically attract employees from beyond the local area to fulfill the workforce needed. Smaller employers typically rely on local residents, whom have already been counted as permanent resident.

Based on aerial imagery, the largest employer in the 1985 EPZ that is not included in the 2012 EPZ is McDaniel Advanced Ceramic Technologies. The parking lots for this facility have a capacity of about 30 vehicles, which does not constitute a major employer. Thus, there are no major employers in the areas of difference between the 1985 EPZ and the 2012 EPZ.

2.3.3 Transient Population Transient population groups are defined as those people (who are not permanent residents, nor commuting employees) who enter the EPZ for a specific purpose (shopping, recreation).

Transients may spend less than one day or stay overnight at camping facilities, hotels and motels. The BVPS EPZ has a number of areas and facilities that attract transients, including:

Lodging Facilities Marinas Parks/Recreational Areas Campgrounds Golf Courses Performing Arts/Conference Centers Hunting There is one transient facility within the 1985 EPZ that would be eliminated when changing to the 2012 EPZ. The Highland County Club (golf course) is located in Sub-Area 0-3 along Florence Street in Glenmoor. Based on aerial imagery, the parking lot at the golf course is estimated to accommodate 50 vehicles, or 120 transients based on the average household size of 2.40 people per household (see Appendix F of KLD TR-495). Assuming at peak times the facility attracts all 120 transients, and due to its close proximity to the EPZ boundary, all of these visitors are non-EPZ residents, the proposed EPZ results in a reduction in transient population of 120 people and 50 vehicles.

2.3.4 Special Facility Population Several schools are located in Sub-Areas 0 -3 and P-8 that are within the existing EPZ but outside of the proposed EPZ. Table 5 lists the schools, as well as enrollments, within the areas Beaver Valley Power Station Revised EPZ 13 KLD Engineering, P.C.

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that are not within the proposed EPZ. As shown, there are 1,804 schoolchildren within the 1g8s EPZ that are not included in the 2012 EPZ.

Table 5. Schools Eliminated from Proposed EPZ Sub-Area Facility Enrollment COLUMBIANA COUNTY, OH 0-3 American Spirit Academy 185 East Liverpool Christian School 138

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1,804 There are no in-patient medical facilities or correctional facilities within the areas of difference between the existing EPZ and the proposed EPZ.

2.4 Effect of EPZ Boundary Change on Evacuation Time Estimates 2.4.1 General Population ETE As discussed in the 2012 ETE Report (KLD TR-4g5L the Dynamic Evacuation (DYNEV) model was used to compute ETE. The input streams for the 2012 ETE analysis were updated based on the population changes noted above and simulations were rerun to compute ETE.

Table 6 presents the goth and 100th percentile ETE (hr:min) for the general population (permanent residents, transients and employees evacuating in their personal vehicles) for the existing EPZ and proposed EPZ, as well as the decrease in ETE, for a summer, midweek, midday, good weather scenario (Scenario 1). Table 7 presents the goth and 100th percentile ETE for the existing EPZ and proposed EPZ, as well as the decrease in ETE, for a winter, midweek, midday, good weather scenario (Scenario 6).

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Table 6. Time to Clear the Indicated area of the Affected Population for Scenario 1 Existing Prop~sed

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Region EPZ ETE EPZ ETE Decr~ase goth Percentile 2-mile 2:00 2:00 0:00 S-mile 2:2S 2:2S 0:00 Entire EPZ 3:0S 3:0S 0:00 lOOth Percentile 2-mile 4:30 4:30 0:00 S-mile 4:3S 4:3S 0:00 Entire EPZ S:OO 4:40 0:20 Table 7. Time to Clear the Indicated area of the Affected Population for Scenario 6 Existing Proposed Region EPZ ETE EPZ ETE Decrea.se *.,

goth Percentile 2-mile 2:00 2:00 0:00 S-mile 2:20 2:20 0:00 Entire EPZ 3:0S 3:0S 0:00 100th Percentile 2-mile 4:30 4:30 0:00 S-mile 4:3S 4:3S 0:00 Entire EPZ S:OO 4:40 0:20 The decrease in population for the proposed EPZ did not impact the goth percentile ETE for any of the regions or scenarios considered. As per Section 4.0 of NUREG/CR-7002, protective action recommendations and decisions should be based on the goth percentile ETE. Thus, the proposed change in the EPZ boundary would not impact protective action recommendations and decisions.

The decrease in population for the proposed EPZ does reduce the lOOth percentile ETE for an evacuation of the full EPZ by 20 minutes for both scenarios considered - not a significant change. The ETE for an evacuation of the 2-mile or S-mile region remains the same.

Figure 4 and Figure 5 have been extracted from Section 7 of KLD TR-4gs.

These figures illustrate the patterns of traffic congestion that arise for an evacuation of the entire EPZ during the summer, midweek, midday period under good weather conditions (scenario 1).

Traffic congestion, as the term is used here, is defined as Level of Service (LOS) F.

LOS F is defined as follows (HCM 2010, page S-5):

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The HCM uses LOS F to define operations that have either broken down (i.e., demand exceeds capacity) or have exceeded a specified service measure value, or combination of service measure values, that most users would consider unsatisfactory. However, particularly for planning applications where different alternatives may be compared, analysts may be interested in knowing just how bad the LOS F condition is. Several measures are available to describe individually, or in combination, the severity of a LOS F condition:

Demand-to-capacity ratios describe the extent to which capacity is exceeded during the analysis period (e.g., by 1%, 15%, etc.);

Duration of LOS F describes how long the condition persists (e.g., 15 min, 1 h, 3 h); and

Spatial extent measures describe the areas affected by LOS F conditions. These include measures such as the back of queue, and the identification of the specific intersection approaches or system elements experiencing LOS F conditions.

All highway 111inks.. which experience LOS F are delineated in these figures by a thick red line; all others are lightly indicated.

The last road to clear in the proposed EPZ is Route 51 in Crescent Township, Pennsylvania (just south of the Sub-Area P-10 boundary) at 4 hours4.62963e-5 days 0.00111 hours 6.613757e-6 weeks 1.522e-6 months and 30 minutes after the advisory to evacuate, as shown in Figure 4. It can be seen however, that congestion still exists along Route 2 and Route 8 in West Virginia (west of the Sub-Area W-2 boundary). As shown in Figure 1, Route 8 westbound near the intersection with Route 2 is within the existing EPZ. As a result, the congestion on Route 8 dictates the 100th percentile ETE for the existing EPZ as opposed to Route 51 near Sub-Area P-10 for the proposed EPZ. The congestion on Route 8 west of Sub-Area W-2 prolongs the ETE for the existing EPZ, explaining the 20 minute increase in ETE at the 100th percentile for an evacuation of the entire EPZ.

Figure 5 displays the congestion patterns at 5 hours5.787037e-5 days 0.00139 hours 8.267196e-6 weeks 1.9025e-6 months after the advisory to evacuate.

The congestion on Route 8 has cleared. Route 2 is the last road to clear within the study area; this road is just outside of the existing EPZ boundary.

2.4.2 Special Facility ETE As discussed in Section 8 of KLD TR-495, ETE for special facilities are equal to the sum of the times to complete the following activities:

Mobilization of bus drivers - alert bus drivers, bus drivers travel to bus depot, bus drivers briefed at depot and assigned to a facility, bus drivers travel to facility Loading time-load a bus to capacity with evacuees from the special facility Travel time to the EPZ boundary It is assumed that the mobilization time - 90 minutes - and the loading time - 15 minutes -

used for the schools considered in the 2012 ETE study are also valid for the schools listed in Table 5. The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed based on the length in miles of the Beaver Valley Power Station Revised EPZ 16 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 1

most likely route from the special facility to the EPZ boundary and the average speed along that route as estimated by the DYNEV model (see pages 8-6 and 8-7 of KLD TR-495 for additional explanation).

Table 8 provides the ETE for the schools in the areas of difference between the proposed EPZ and the existing EPZ for an evacuation of the entire EPZ when school is in session in good weather. The ETE for schools in the Table 8-7 of KLD TR-495 range from 1:50 to 3:50 for good weather. The ETE shown in Table 8 are on the low end of this range because each of the facilities is less than a mile from the existing EPZ boundary.

Table 8. Evacuation Time Estimates for Schools-Good Weather Beaver Falls Middle School 15 0.6 30.8 2

1:50 Beaver Falls Senior H h School 90 15 0.6 30.8 2

1:50 Divine Mercy Academy 90 15 0.8 30.5 2

1:50 3

CONCLUSIONS As described in NUREG-0654 FEMA-REP-1, Rev. 1, defining an EPZ boundary of about 10 miles radially from the BVPS will ensure that prompt and effective actions can be taken to protect the public in the event of an accident. As such, FirstEnergy is proposing to formally change the existing EPZ boundary in response to the request from the three surrounding risk county Emergency Management Agencies.

The proposed EPZ results in a permanent resident population reduction of 8,833 people, a transient population reduction of 120 people, and the exclusion of 1,804 schoolchildren at six schools that are within the existing EPZ.

The reduction in population with the proposed EPZ has no impact on the goth percentile ETE for the general population, which are to be used in making protective action recommendations and decisions. In addition, the ETE for the schools in the areas of difference between the proposed and existing EPZ boundaries are comparable to school ETE in the 2012 ETE study. As such, the proposed change to the EPZ boundary does not have a significant impact on ETE for the general population or for special facilities.

Beaver Valley Power Station Revised EPZ 17 KLD Engineering, P.C.

Rev. 1

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