ML13070A022

Evacuation Time Estimates Checklist

ML13070A022
Person / Time
Site:	Browns Ferry
Issue date:	03/04/2013
From:	James Shea Tennessee Valley Authority
To:	Document Control Desk, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
Download: ML13070A022 (14)

Text

Tennessee Valley Authority, 1101 Market Street, Chattanooga, Tennessee 37402 March 4, 2013 10 CFR 50.4 10 CFR 50, Appendix E ATTN: Document Control Desk U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C. 20555-0001 Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant, Units 1, 2, and 3 Renewed Facility Operating License Nos. DPR-33, DPR-52, and DPR-68 NRC Docket Nos. 50-259, 50-260, and 50-296

Subject:

Evacuation Time Estimates Checklist

Reference:

1. Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) letter to NRC, "Evacuation Time Estimates,"

dated December 18, 2012

2. NUREG/CR-7002, "Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies," published November 2011 The purpose of this correspondence is to provide supplemental information regarding evacuation time estimates previously provided by TVA as requested by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC).

By letter dated December 18, 2012 (Reference 1), TVA provided the analysis supporting Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant (BFN). In a telephone call on February 1, 2013, the NRC requested copies of the checklist from Appendix B of NUREG/CR-7002 (Reference 2), "Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies," associated with the analysis. In addition, the NRC requested confirmation that the analysis does not include information subject to withholding from public disclosure in accordance with Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations (10 CFR), Section 2.390, "Public inspections, exemptions, requests for withholding."

The enclosure to this letter provides a copy of the completed checklist. Additionally, TVA confirms that the information provided in the ETE analysis for BFN is not exempt from public disclosure in accordance with 10 CFR 2.390.

Printed on recycled paper

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Page 2 March 4, 2013 TVA informed the NRC that this information will be provided within 30 days. Accordingly, the due date for this submittal is March 4, 2013, since March 3 falls on a Sunday and the next business day is March 4.

There are no new regulatory commitments in this letter. Should you have any questions or if additional information is needed regarding this submittal, please contact Mr. Walter H. Lee, Senior Emergency Preparedness Manager, at (423) 751-8577.

Respectfully, J. W. Shea Vice President, Nuclear Licensing

Enclosure:

Table B-1 Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Review Criteria Checklist - Browns Ferry cc (Enclosure):

NRC Regional Administrator - Region II NRC Senior Resident Inspector - Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant

Enclosure 1 Tennessee Valley Authority Browns Ferry Nuclear Plant Units 1, 2, and 3 Table B-I Evacuation Time Estimate (ETE) Review Criteria Checklist - Browns Ferry (See Attached)

Table B-1 ETE Review Criteria Checklist Browns Ferry Criterion Add ressed in Comments

____________ ____________ Analysis_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

1.0 Introduction __....

a. The emergency planning zone (EPZ) and surrounding area yes Sect 1 .2 should be described, yes Sect 1.2

b. A map should be included that identifies primary features of the site, including major roadways, significant topographical yes Figures 1-1,1-2, and 1-3 features, boundaries of counties, and population centers within the EPZ.

c. A comparison of the current and previous ETE should be provided and includes similar information as identified in yes Table 1-3 Table 1-1,_METE Comparison,' of NUREG/CR-7002.

1.1 Approach ..... _ _._ _ ..........

a. A discussion of the approach and level of detail obtained during the field survey of the roadway network should be yes Section 4.3 and Appendix D provided.

b. Sources of demographic data for schools, special facilities, y. Se 1P large employers, and special events should be identified. yes sect. 2.1, sect. 3

c. Discussion should be presented on use of traffic control plans in the analysis.yeSc2

d. Traffic simulation models used for the analyses should be yes Sect 5.5.2 and Table 1-3 identified by name and version.........2 a

e. Methods used to address data uncertainties should be ...........

described, yes Sect 2.1, 6.5, and 6.6

.1.2 Assumptions .. ... .......

a. The planning basis for the ETE includes the assumption that the evacuation is ordered promptly and no early protective yes Sect 2.1, 3, 5.4 actions have been implemented..........

b. Assumptions consistent with Table 1-2, "General Assumptions," of NUREG/CR-7002 should be provided and yes Sect 2.1 include the basis to support their use.

1.3 Scenario Development

a. The ten scenarios in Table 1-3, Evacuation Scenarios, ,

should be developed for the ETE analysis, or. a reason yes AYCA Soccer Tournament as "Special Event" Sect 6.8 should be provided for use of other scenarios.

....... ion Addressed'in Comments.

__________ _____ _____ _____ ___ ETE:Analysis_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

1.3.1 Staged Evacuation _ _".

a. A discussion should be provided on the approach used in 6.4 " "

development of a staged evacuation. yes Sect 6.4 1.4 Evacuation Planning Areas ___....

a. A map of the EPZ with emergency response planning areas (ERPAs) should be included. yes .Figure 1-2

b. Atable should be provided identifying the ERPAs considered for each ETE calculation by downwind direction yes Table 5-1 in each sector........

c. A table similar to Table 1-4, "Evacuation Areas for a Staged yes Table....

Evacuation Keyhole," of NUREG/CR-7002 should be yes Table 5-1 provided and includes the complete evacuation of the 2, 5, and 10 mile areas and for the 2 mile area/5 mile keyhole evacuations.

2.0 Demand Estimation ........ _ __....

a. Demand estimation should be developed for the four population groups, including permanent residents of the yes Table 3-1 thru 3-4 co EPZ, transients, special facilities, and schools. __

2.1 ..Permanent Residents and Transient Population ....

a. The US Census should be the source of the population values, or another credible source should be provided, yes Sect 2.1, 3

b. Population values should be adjusted as necessary for growth to reflect population estimates to the year of the ETE. yes 2010 Census released in Oct 2011 and is most recent

c. A sector diagram should be included, similar to Figure 2-1, "Population by Sector," of NUREG/CR-7002, showing the yes Appendix C population distribution for permanent residents.

2.1.1 Permanent Residents with Vehicles .... ___....

a. The persons per vehicle value should be between 1 and 2 or justification should be provided for other values. yes Sect 3.1.1 (2.06 person per vehicle)

b. Major employers should be listed, yes Table B-i 2.1.2 Transient Population .

a. A list of facilities which attract transient populations should . .... ....... .

be included, and peak and average attendance for these yes Table B-2, B-3 facilities should be listed. The source of information used to develop attendance values should be provided. __ _ __............._. __.

b.. The average population during the season should be used,. ,yes [Sect 3.2

Crtron :Addressed in .....

_______________________________ T.E Analysis... Coment

____________________________________(Yes/No) itemize d~and totaled for each scenario. _____________________

c. The percent of permanent residents assumed to be at ysSc .

facilities should be estimated. ysSc .

d. The number of people per vehicle should be provided.

Numbers may vary by scenario, and if so, discussion on why yes Sect 2.1, 3.3, Tables B-1, B-2, B-3 values vary should be provided. _________________________________

e. A sector diagram should be included, similar to Figure 2-1 of NUREG/CR-7002, showing the population distribution for yes Table 3-2 the transient population.___________________________________

2.2 Transit.Dependent Permnanent:Residents

a. The methodology used to determine the number of transit dependent residents should be discussed. yes Sect 3.1.2

b. Transportation resources needed to evacuate this group ysSect 3.1.2 should be quantified.

c. The county/local evacuation plans for transit dependent yes Sect 3.1.2 residents should be used in the analysis.

d. The methodology used to determine the number of people t,,a with disabilities and those with access and functional needs yes Sect 3.1.2 who may need assistance and do not reside in special facilities should be provided. Data from local/county registration programs should be used in the estimate, but should not be the only set of data. ______________________

e. Capacities should be provided for all types of transportation resources. Bus seating capacity of 50% should be used or yes Sect 3.1.2 justification should be provided for higher values.____________________________________

f.An estimate of this population should be provided and information should be provided that the existing registration ysSect 3.1.2 prog rams were used in developing the estimate. yes_____________________

g. A summary table of the total number of buses, ambulances, or other transport needed to support evacuation should be yes Sect 3.1.2 provided and the quantification of resources should be detailed enough to assure double, counting has not occurred.___________

2.3 Special Facility Residents . .... ....

a. A list of special facilities, including the type of facility, J location, and average population should be provided.

Special facility~staff should be included~in~the total special:

jyes I__________________________________

Table B-6

facility population.

b. A discussion should be provided on how special facility data yes Sect w a s o bta ine d. . .......... .

c. The number of wheelchair and bed-bound individuals should ......

be provided. yes Table B-6

d. An estimate of the number and capacity of vehicles needed to support the evacuation of the facility should be provided, yes Table B-6

e. The logistics for mobilizing specially trained staff (e.g.,

medical support or security support for prisons, jails, and N/A Part of offsite agency planning process other correctional facilities) should be discussed when appropriate.

2.4 Schools

a. A list of schools including name, location, student population, and transportation resources required to support yes Sect 3.4.2, Table 3-3 & Table B-4 the evacuation, should be provided. The source of this information should be provided.

b. Transportation resources for elementary and middle schools

,2 yes Sect 3.4.2, Table B-4 are based on 100% of the school capacity.

c. The estimate of high school students who will use their personal vehicle to evacuate should be provided and a basis yes Sect 3. adjustment for personal vehicles N/A for the values used should be. provided.

d. The need for return trips should be identified if necessary. yes Sect 6.7 (no return trips) 2.5.1 Special Events

a. A complete list of special events should be provided and includes information on the population, estimated duration, yes Sect 6.8 and season of the event..... ...............

b. The special event that encompasses the peak transient ......

• population should be analyzed in the ETE. yes Sect 6.8

c. The percent of permanent residents attending the event should be estimated. yes Sect 6.8 2.5.2 Shadow Evacuation.

a. A shadow evacuation of 20 percent should be included for areas outside the evacuation area extending to 15 miles yes Sect 1.2, 1.4, 6.4 from the NPP.

b. Population estimates for the shadow evacuation in the 10 to yes Appendix C 15 mile area beyond the EPZ are provided by sector.

Criteflon AddressedIn cmet

_________________________________________ ETE Analysis ____________________

___________________________________(Yes/No)

c. The loading of the shadow evacuation onto the roadway network should be consistent with the trip generation time yes Sect 5 generated for the permanent resident population. _

2.5.3 Background and Pass Through Traffic

a. The volume of background traffic and pass-through traffic should be based on the average daytime traffic. Values may yes Sect 2.1, 4.3 be reduced for nighttime scenarios.

b. Pass-through traffic should be assumed to have stopped entering the EPZ about two hours after the initial notification. yes Sect 2.1, 4.3 2.6 Summary of Demand Estimation:

a. A summary table should be provided that identifies the total y populations and total vehicles used in the analysis for yes Table 3-1 thru 3-4 permanent residents, transients, transit dependent residents, special facilities, schools, shadow population, and pass-through demand used in each scenario.

3.0 Roadway Capacity

a. The method(s) used to assess roadway capacity should be Iyes Sect 4

,w discussed.y 3.1 Roadway Characteristics_

a. A field survey of key routes within the EPZ has been conducted. yes Sect 4.1

b. Information should be provided describing the extent of the survey, and types of information gathered and used in the yes Sect 4.3 analysis.

c. A table similar to that in Appendix A, 'Roadway .. .. .....

Characteristics," of NUREG/CR-7002 should be provided, yes Appendix D

d. Calculations for a representative roadway segment should be provided. yes Appendix D

e. A legible map of the roadway system that identifies node numbers and segments used to develop the ETE should be yes Figure 4-1 plus map in Appendix D provided and should be similar to Figure 3-1, 'Roadway Network Identifying Nodes and Segments," of NUREG/CR-7002. _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

3.2 C apacity A nalysis .. .. ................. ... _..... _......

a. The approach used to calculate the roadway capacity for the transportation network should be described in detail and yes Sect 4.3 and Appendix D

Criterion Addressed In Comet (Yes/N~o) __________________

identifies factors that are expressly used in the modeling. _ _*_..........

b. The capacity analysis identifies where field information y yes should be 3rs.3cInused in the t oen . o n ro .. " ................ . ... . .... ....... ....... ....yes ETE calculation. *,..... .. .... . .; Sect 4.3 and Appendix 0 3.3 Inteersection Control.,

a. A list of intersections should be provided that includes the total numbers of intersections modeled that are yes Sect 7 and Appendix D unsignalized, signalized, or manned by response personnel.

b. Characteristics for the 10 highest volume intersections within the EPZ are provided including the location, signal cycle yes Table 7-1 length, and turn lane queue capacity I

c. Discussion should be provided on how time signal cycle is used in the calculations.hyesSe 3.4 Adverse Weather cntinsolbednifdadth

a. The adverse weather condition should be identified and the effect of adverse weather on mobilization should be yes Sect 2.3 considered. _______________________

b. The speed and capacity reduction factors identified in Table

,) 3-1, "Weather Capacity Factors," of NUREG/CR-7002 yes Sect 2.3 should be used or a basis should be provided for other values.

c. The study identifies assumptions for snow removal on N/A No added delays for snow removal were assumed, streets and driveways, when applicable....

4.0 Developm ent of Evacuation Tim es ................. ....... ..... __".. ___.....

4.1 Trip Generation Time . .........

a. The process used to develop trip generation times should be yes Sect 5 identified.

b. When telephone surveys are used, the scope of the survey, area of the survey, number of participants, and statistical yes Appendix E relevance should be provided....

c. Data obtained from telephone surveys should be yes Appendix E summarized.

d. The trip generation time for each population group should be yes Sect 5 developed from site specific information.

4.1.1 Permanent Residents and Transient Population

a. Permanent residents are assumed to evacuate from their S homes but are not assumed to be at home at all times. Trip yes Sect 5

Criterlon Add iessed In ETE Analysis.Cmet

___ ____ ___ ____ ___(YesiNO) generation time includes the assumption that a percentage of residents will need to return home prior to evacuating. .. ._.__

b. Discussion should be provided on the time and method used yes S 5 to notify transients. The trip generation time discusses any yes Sect 5 difficulties notifying persons in hard to reach areas such as on lakes or in campgrounds.

c. The trip generation time. accounts for transients potentially y Sect 5 returning to hotels prior to evacuating. yes*

d. Effect of public transportation resources used during special events where a large number of transients are expected NIA should be considered.

e. The trip generation time for the transient population should be integrated and loaded onto the transportation network yes Sect 5 with the general public.

• 4.1.2 Transit Dependent Residents *________............_"_"

a. If available, existing plans and bus routes are used in the N/A ETE analysis. If new plans are developed with the ETE, they EP "w should have been agreed upon by the responsible authorities.

b. Discussion should be included on the means of evacuating yes. Sect 5.3 ambulatory and non-ambulatory residents. yes

c. The number, location and availability of buses, and other resources needed to support the demand estimation are N/A Transportation resources are part of offsite agency provided. ,_ planning process

d. Logistical details, such as the time to obtain buses, brief drivers and initiate the bus route are provided. yes Sect 5.4.3, 6.7

e. Discussion should identify the time estimated for transit S dependent residents to prepare and then travel to a bus yes Sect 6.7; means of travel to pick up points not pickup point, and describes the expected means of travel to addressed. Transportation Assistance phone numbers the pickup point,. provided for the public.

f. The number of bus stops and time needed to loade passengers should be discussed. yes Sect 6.7

g. A map of bus routes should be included. N/A Bus route information was not available.

h. The trip generation time for non-ambulatory persons includes the time to mobilize ambulances or special N/A Individual needs are part of offsite planning process vehicles, time to drive to the home of residents, loading time, ........ .

Criterion Addressed in .. . Cmet and time to drive out of the EPZ should be provided.

i. Information should be provided to support analysis of return trips, if n yes

...... S. 6.7 Sect 6...

4.1.3 Special:yFacilities ...

a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization times Sect 6.7 should be provided. yes

b. Discussion should be provided on the inbound and outbound ye ec .

speedsyes Sect 6.7

c. The*number of wheelchair and bed-bound individuals should be provided, and the logistics of evacuating these residents yes Table B-6 should be discussed.

d. Time for loading of residents should be provided. byes Sect 6.7

e. Information should be provided that indicates whether the evacuation can be completed in a single trip or ifadditional yes Table 6-6 trips are needed.

f. If return trips are needed, the destination of vehicles should N be provided..... ._N/A Return trips are not anticipated.

g. Discussion should be provided on whether special facility residents are expected to pass through the reception center yes Sect 5.4.3 Co prior to being evacuated to their final destination.

-h. Supporting information should be provided to quantify the ye......Rtrntisar o ntcptd time elements for the return tips. yes Sect 6.7. Return trips are not anticipated

• 4.1.4 Schools...

a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization times y"6 should be providedyes Sect 6.7

b. Discussion should be provided on the inbound and outbound speeds. yes Sect 6.7

c. Time for loading of students should be provided& yes Sect 6.7

d. Information should be provided that indicates whether the evacuation can be completed in a single trip or if additional yes Table 6-7

. trips are needed.

e. If return trips are needed, the destination of school buses N/A Return trips are not anticipated.

should be provided. NA.._Reuntparnoatiptd

f. If used, reception centers should be identified. Discussion should be provided on whether students are expected to yes Sect 5.4.3; Schools evacuate directly to host schools pass through the reception center prior to being evacuated ........

Criterion Addrssd: In

___________________________ TEAy . Comments.

to their final destination.____________________________

g. Supporting information should be provided to quantify the N/A Return trips are not anticipated.

time elements for the return trips. __....... __p__ancaeo 4.2 ETE Modeling: "______,,,,,,,,__ . ...... . ._"_ ._.

a. General information about the model should be provided yes Sect 5.5 and demonstrates its use in ETE studies. yesSect_5.5

b. If a traffic simulation model is not used to conduct the ETE calculation, sufficient detail should be provided to validate N/A the analytical approach used. All criteria elements should have been met, as appropriate.

4.2.1 Trafft Simulation Model Input .... _-__

a. Traffic simulation model assumptions and a representative yes Sect 5.5 set of model inputs should be provided. __yes _Sect_5.5

b. A glossary of terms should be provided for the key performance measures and parameters used in the yes Sect 5.5, 6.7 analysis.

4.2.2 Traffic Simulation Model Outpt

a. A discussion regarding whether the traffic simulation model used must be in equilibration prior to calculating the ETE yes Sect 5.5 should be provided.

b. The minimum following model outputs should be provided to support review: yes Sect 6 and Appendix F

1. Total volume and percent by hour at each EPZ exit mode.

2. Network wide average travel time.

3. Longest Queue length for the 10 intersections with the highest traffic volume.

4. Total vehicles exiting the network.

5. A plot that provides both the mobilization curve and evacuation curve identifying the cumulative percentage of evacuees who have mobilized and exited the EPZ.

6. Average speed for each major evacuation route that exits the EPZ.

• c. Color coded roadway maps should be provided for various times (i.e., at 2, 4, 6 hrs., etc.) during a full EPZ evacuation yes Appendix F scenario, identifying areas where long queues exist including level of service (LOS) "E" and LOS "F" conditions, _

Criteron Addressed in .Cm nt

____ ____ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ETE Anaysis.

if they occur.

4.3 Evacuation Time Estimates for the General Public __.... ...

a. The ETE should include the time to evacuate 90% and 100% of the total permanent resident and transient yes Table 6-1 population.

b. The ETE for 100% of the general public should include all members of the general public. Any reductions or truncated yes Table 6-1 data should be explained. ..........

c. Tables should be provided for the 90 and 100 percent ETEs similar to Table 4-3, "ETEs for Staged Evacuation Keyhole," yes Table 6-4 of NUREG/CR-7002.

d. ETEs should be provided for the 100 percent evacuation of special facilities, transit dependent, and school populations, yes Sect 6 5.0 Other Considerations 5.1 Development of Traffic Control Plans

a. Information that responsible authorities have approved the traffic control plan used in the analysis should be provided, yes Sect 7

b. A discussion of adjustments or additions to the traffic control yes Sect 7 a) w plan that affect the ETE should be provided.

5.2 Enhancements in Evacuation Time __

a. The results of assessments for improvement of evacuation y time should be provided, yes Sect 7

b. A statement or discussion regarding presentation of Iyes Sect 7 enhancements to local authorities. should be provided.,S 5.3 State and Local Review,.

a. A list of agencies contacted and the extent of interaction with these agencies should be discussed. yes Sect 2

b. Information should be provided on any unresolved issues N/A that may affect the ETE. _

• 5.4 Reviews and Updates

a. A discussion of when an updated ETE analysis is required to y be performed and submitted to the NRC. yes Sect 6.5 5.5 Reception Centers and Congregate Care Center

a. A map of congregate care centers and reception centers Figure 44-1 should be provided. yes

b. If return trips are required, assumptions used to estimate N/A

Criterion Addressed: in Comments

__ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ETE Analysis

__________ _________(Yes/No) _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

return times for buses should be provided. u,,

c. It should be clearly stated if it is assumed that passengers are left at the reception center and are taken by separate yes Sect 3.1.2 buses to the congregate care center. I Technical Reviewer Date

,<yr j/13111 Supervisory Review Date