Text

Kld TR-528, Final Report, Rev. 1, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Cover Through Chapter 7, General Population Evaluation Times Estimates (ETE) Page 7-32
	ML13037A635
Person / Time
Site:	Surry
Issue date:	12/31/2012
From:	; KLD Engineering, PC
To:	; Office of Nuclear Material Safety and Safeguards, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
	12-727 KLD TR-528, Rev 1
	Download: ML13037A635 (152)
	v • d • e

December2012

FinalReport,Rev.1

KLDTR-528

SurryPowerStation

DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimates

WorkperformedforDominion,by:

KLDEngineering,P.C.

43CorporateDrive

Hauppauge,NY11788

mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com

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TableofContents

1

INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................11

1.1

OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................11

1.2

TheSurryPowerStationLocation..............................................................................................13

1.3

PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................15

1.4

ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy..............................................................................................19

2

STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................21

2.1

DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................21

2.2

StudyMethodologicalAssumptions..........................................................................................22

2.3

StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................25

3

DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................31

3.1

PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................32

3.2

ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................38

310

3.3

TransientPopulation................................................................................................................311

3.3.1

TransientAttractions.......................................................................................................311

3.3.2

CollegeStudents..............................................................................................................312

3.4

Employees................................................................................................................................316

3.5

MedicalFacilities......................................................................................................................320

3.6

TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................320

3.7

SpecialEvent............................................................................................................................321

3.8

SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................321

4

ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................41

4.1

CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................42

4.2

CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................44

4.3

ApplicationtotheSPSStudyArea.............................................................................................46

4.3.1

TwoLaneRoads.................................................................................................................46

4.3.2

MultiLaneHighway...........................................................................................................46

4.3.3

Freeways............................................................................................................................47

4.3.4

Intersections......................................................................................................................48

4.4

SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................48

5

ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................51

5.1

Background................................................................................................................................51

5.2

FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................53

5.3

EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................56

5.4

CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................512

5.4.1

StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................513

5.4.2

StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................516

5.4.3

TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreas.................................................518

6

DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................61

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GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................71

7.1

VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................71

7.2

StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................71

7.3

PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................72

7.4

EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................74

7.5

StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................75

7.6

GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................76

8

TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................81

8.1

TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................82

8.2

SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................84

8.3

MedicalFacilityDemand............................................................................................................84

8.4

EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................85

8.5

SpecialNeedsPopulation.........................................................................................................810

8.6

CorrectionalFacilities...............................................................................................................811

9

TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................91

10

EVACUATIONROUTES..................................................................................................................101

11

SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONS...........................................................................111

12

CONFIRMATIONTIME..................................................................................................................121

13

RECOMMENDATIONS...................................................................................................................131

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ListofAppendices

A.

GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A1

B.

DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B1

C.

DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C1

C.1

Methodology..............................................................................................................................C5

C.1.1

TheFundamentalDiagram.................................................................................................C5

C.1.2

TheSimulationModel........................................................................................................C5

C.1.3

LaneAssignment..............................................................................................................C12

C.2

Implementation.......................................................................................................................C12

C.2.1

ComputationalProcedure................................................................................................C12

C.2.2

InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)...................................................C15

D.

DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D1

E.

SPECIALFACILITYDATA......................................................................................................................E1

F.

TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F1

F.1

Introduction...............................................................................................................................F1

F.2

SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan.......................................................................................F2

F.3

SurveyResults............................................................................................................................F3

F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F3

F.3.2 EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F8

F.3.3 TimeDistributionResults.....................................................................................................F11

F.4

Conclusions..............................................................................................................................F14

G.

TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G1

G.1

TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G1

G.2

AccessControlPoints................................................................................................................G1

H

EVACUATIONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H1

J.

REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J1

K.

EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K1

L.

PAZBOUNDARIES...............................................................................................................................L1

M.

EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.............................................................................................M1

M.1

EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M1

M.2

EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M2

M.3

EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M3

M.4

EffectofRushHourCongestionPresentattheOnsetoftheEvacuationProcess..................M4

M.5

EffectofaFullClosureonI64WB..........................................................................................M6

N.

ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N1

Note:AppendixIintentionallyskipped

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ListofFigures

Figure11.SPSLocation............................................................................................................................14

Figure12.SPSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork............................................................................................17

Figure21.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.......................................................................................24

Figure31.SPSEPZ....................................................................................................................................33

Figure32.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................36

Figure33.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................37

Figure34.ShadowPopulationbySector.................................................................................................39

Figure35.ShadowVehiclesbySector...................................................................................................310

Figure36.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................314

Figure37.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................315

Figure38.EmployeePopulationbySector............................................................................................318

Figure39.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................319

Figure41.FundamentalDiagrams............................................................................................................49

Figure51.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................55

Figure52.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................511

Figure53.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution.......................................................515

Figure54.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................520

Figure55.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributions

inthe2to5MileRegion..........................................................................................................................522

Figure61.SPSEPZPAZs...........................................................................................................................69

Figure71.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................718

Figure72.PLANTShadowRegion..........................................................................................................719

Figure73.CongestionPatternsat30MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate....................................720

Figure74.CongestionPatternsat2HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................721

Figure75.CongestionPatternsat3HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................722

Figure76.CongestionPatternsat4HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................723

Figure77.CongestionPatternsat5HoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..........................................724

Figure78.CongestionPatternsat6Hours,15MinutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate......................725

Figure79.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03......................................................726

Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03....................................................726

Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03....................................................727

Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03....................................................727

Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03....................................................728

Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03....................................................728

Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................729

Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................729

Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................730

Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................730

Figure719.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................731

Figure720.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................731

Figure721.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03..................................................732

Figure722.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR03..................................................732

Figure81.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................812

Figure82.TransitDependentBusRoutesforIsleofWightCounty......................................................813

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Figure83.TransitDependentBusRoutesforSurryCounty..................................................................814

Figure84.TransitDependentBusRoutesforYorkCounty...................................................................815

Figure85.TransitDependentBusRoutesfortheCityofWilliamsburg................................................816

Figure86.TransitDependentBusRoutesforJamesCityCounty.........................................................817

Figure87.TransitDependentBusRoutes2429fortheCityofNewportNews...................................818

Figure88.TransitDependentBusRoutes3035fortheCityofNewportNews...................................819

Figure89.TransitDependentBusRoutes3643fortheCityofNewportNews...................................820

Figure101.GeneralPopulationEvacuationAssemblyCentersandReceivingSchools........................102

Figure102.EvacuationRouteMap........................................................................................................103

FigureB1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterface........................................................................B5

FigureC1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C4

FigureC2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C6

FigureC3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht1>0..............................................................................C6

FigureC4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC3)....................................................C14

FigureD1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D5

FigureE1.SchoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZOverview.................................................................E11

FigureE2.SchoolsandDaycaresNorthernEPZ...................................................................................E12

FigureE3.SchoolsandDaycaresEasternEPZ......................................................................................E13

FigureE4.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E14

FigureE5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ........................................................................................E15

FigureE6.LodgingwithintheEPZOverview.......................................................................................E16

FigureE7.LodgingwithintheEPZ-NorthernEPZ................................................................................E17

FigureE8:LodgingwithintheEPZ-NorthernWilliamsburg.................................................................E18

FigureE9.LodgingCentralWilliamsburg.............................................................................................E19

FigureE10.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ.................................................................................E20

FigureF1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F3

FigureF2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F4

FigureF3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F5

FigureF4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F5

FigureF5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference.........................................................................................F6

FigureF6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F7

FigureF7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F8

FigureF8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F9

FigureF9.PetOwnership.......................................................................................................................F10

FigureF10.DestinationsHouseholdswithPets....................................................................................F10

FigureF11.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School..............................................................F12

FigureF12.WorktoHomeTravelTime.................................................................................................F12

FigureF13.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F13

FigureF14.TimetoClearDrivewayof6"8"ofSnow...........................................................................F14

FigureG1.TrafficandAccessControlPointsfortheSPSSite................................................................G2

FigureH1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H4

FigureH2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H5

FigureH3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H6

FigureH4.RegionR04.............................................................................................................................H7

FigureH5.RegionR05.............................................................................................................................H8

FigureH6.RegionR06.............................................................................................................................H9

FigureH7.RegionR07...........................................................................................................................H10

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FigureH8.RegionR08...........................................................................................................................H11

FigureH9.RegionR09...........................................................................................................................H12

FigureH10.RegionR10.........................................................................................................................H13

FigureH11RegionR11..........................................................................................................................H14

FigureH12RegionR12..........................................................................................................................H15

FigureH13RegionR13..........................................................................................................................H16

FigureH14RegionR14..........................................................................................................................H17

FigureH15RegionR15..........................................................................................................................H18

FigureH16RegionR16..........................................................................................................................H19

FigureH17RegionR17..........................................................................................................................H20

FigureH18RegionR18..........................................................................................................................H21

FigureH19RegionR19..........................................................................................................................H22

FigureH20RegionR20..........................................................................................................................H23

FigureH21RegionR21..........................................................................................................................H24

FigureH22RegionR22..........................................................................................................................H25

FigureH23RegionR23..........................................................................................................................H26

FigureH24RegionR24..........................................................................................................................H27

FigureH25RegionR25..........................................................................................................................H28

FigureH26RegionR26..........................................................................................................................H29

FigureH27RegionR27..........................................................................................................................H30

FigureH28RegionR28..........................................................................................................................H31

FigureH29RegionR29..........................................................................................................................H32

FigureH30RegionR30..........................................................................................................................H33

FigureH31RegionR31..........................................................................................................................H34

FigureH32RegionR32..........................................................................................................................H35

FigureH33RegionR33..........................................................................................................................H36

FigureH34RegionR34..........................................................................................................................H37

FigureH35RegionR35..........................................................................................................................H38

FigureH36RegionR36..........................................................................................................................H39

FigureH37RegionR37..........................................................................................................................H40

FigureH38RegionR38..........................................................................................................................H41

FigureH39RegionR39..........................................................................................................................H42

FigureH40RegionR40..........................................................................................................................H43

FigureH41RegionR41..........................................................................................................................H44

FigureJ1.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J8

FigureJ2.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)...............................J8

FigureJ3.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)..............J9

FigureJ4.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)..............................J9

FigureJ5.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,

GoodWeather(Scenario5).....................................................................................................................J10

FigureJ6.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)..............J10

FigureJ7.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)...............................J11

FigureJ8.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Midday,Snow(Scenario8).............................J11

FigureJ9.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)..............J12

FigureJ10.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)...........................J12

FigureJ11.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Weekend,Midday,Snow(Scenario11).........................J13

FigureJ12.ETEandTripGeneration:Winter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,

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GoodWeather(Scenario12)...................................................................................................................J13

FigureJ13.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,

GoodWeather,SpecialEvent(Scenario13)............................................................................................J14

FigureJ14.ETEandTripGeneration:Summer,Midweek,Midday,

GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)......................................................................................J14

FigureK1.SurryLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork..........................................................................................K2

FigureK2.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid1.....................................................................................K3

FigureK3.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid2.....................................................................................K4

FigureK4.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid3.....................................................................................K5

FigureK5.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid4.....................................................................................K6

FigureK6.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid5.....................................................................................K7

FigureK7.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid6.....................................................................................K8

FigureK8.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid7.....................................................................................K9

FigureK9.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid8...................................................................................K10

FigureK10.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid9.................................................................................K11

FigureK11.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid10...............................................................................K12

FigureK12.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid11...............................................................................K13

FigureK13.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid12...............................................................................K14

FigureK14.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid13...............................................................................K15

FigureK15.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid14...............................................................................K16

FigureK16.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid15...............................................................................K17

FigureK17.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid16...............................................................................K18

FigureK18.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid17...............................................................................K19

FigureK19.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid18...............................................................................K20

FigureK20.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid19...............................................................................K21

FigureK21.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid20...............................................................................K22

FigureK22.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid21...............................................................................K23

FigureK23.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid22...............................................................................K24

FigureK24.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid23...............................................................................K25

FigureK25.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid24...............................................................................K26

FigureK26.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid25...............................................................................K27

FigureK27.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid26...............................................................................K28

FigureK28.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid27...............................................................................K29

FigureK29.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid28...............................................................................K30

FigureK30.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid29...............................................................................K31

FigureK31.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid30...............................................................................K32

FigureK32.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid31...............................................................................K33

FigureK33.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid32...............................................................................K34

FigureK34.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid33...............................................................................K35

FigureK35.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid34...............................................................................K36

FigureK36.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid35...............................................................................K37

FigureK37.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid36...............................................................................K38

FigureK38.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid37...............................................................................K39

FigureK39.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid38...............................................................................K40

FigureK40.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid39...............................................................................K41

FigureK41.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid40...............................................................................K42

FigureK42.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid41...............................................................................K43

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FigureK43.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid42...............................................................................K44

FigureK44.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid43...............................................................................K45

FigureK45.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid44...............................................................................K46

FigureK46.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid45...............................................................................K47

FigureK47.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid46...............................................................................K48

FigureK48.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid47...............................................................................K49

FigureK49.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid48...............................................................................K50

FigureK50.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid49...............................................................................K51

FigureK51.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid50...............................................................................K52

FigureK52.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid51...............................................................................K53

FigureK53.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid52...............................................................................K54

FigureK54.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid53...............................................................................K55

FigureK55.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid54...............................................................................K56

FigureK56.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid55...............................................................................K57

FigureK57.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid56...............................................................................K58

FigureK58.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid57...............................................................................K59

FigureK59.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid58...............................................................................K60

FigureK60.LinkNodeAnalysisNetwork-Grid59...............................................................................K61

FigureM1.CongestionPatternsat0:15aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate..............................................M5

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ListofTables

Table11.StakeholderInteraction...........................................................................................................11

Table12.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................15

Table13.ETEStudyComparisons............................................................................................................19

Table21.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................23

Table22.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................27

Table31.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................34

Table32.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyPAZ.............................................................35

Table33.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................38

Table34.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................313

Table35.SummaryofNonEPZResidentEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles......................................317

Table36.SPSEPZExternalTraffic..........................................................................................................320

Table37.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................322

Table38.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................324

Table51.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivities................................................................................53

Table52.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................56

Table53.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................57

Table54.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................58

Table55.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.......................................................59

Table56.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoClear6"8"ofSnow......................................................510

Table57.MappingDistributionstoEvents............................................................................................512

Table58.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................513

Table59.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforUnstagedEvacuation.....................519

Table510.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationforStagedEvacuation.......................521

Table61.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions...........................................................................................66

Table62.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions.............................................................................................610

Table63.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios..........................................611

Table64.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario................................................................................................612

Table71.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation...........................79

Table72.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation.......................711

Table73.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................713

Table74.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................714

Table75.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................715

Table81.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................821

Table82.SchoolandDaycarePopulationDemandEstimates..............................................................822

Table83.ReceivingSchools...................................................................................................................824

Table84.MedicalFacilityTransitDemand............................................................................................825

Table85.SummaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................826

Table86.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................827

Table87.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..............................................................832

Table88.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain...............................................................................834

Table89.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow.............................................................................836

Table810.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes........................................................................838

Table811.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................840

Table812.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain.........................................................842

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Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow.......................................................844

Table814.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather.............................................846

Table815.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-Rain.............................................................847

Table816.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-Snow............................................................848

Table817.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates....................................849

Table121.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation..............122

TableA1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A1

TableC1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C2

TableC2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C3

TableC3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C7

TableE1.SchoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZ.......................................................................................E2

TableE2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E4

TableE3.Parks/RecreationalAttractionswithintheEPZ........................................................................E5

TableE4.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E6

TableE5.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ.....................................................................................E10

TableF1.SPSTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan.......................................................................................F2

TableH1.PercentofPAZPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion.........................................................H2

TableJ1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J2

TableJ2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J3

TableJ3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J4

TableJ4.AverageSpeed(mph)andTravelTime(min)for

MajorEvacuationRoutes(RegionR03,Scenario1)..................................................................................J5

TableJ5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J6

TableK1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K62

TableK2.NodesintheLinkNodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled.........................................K154

TableM1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M1

TableM2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M2

TableM3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M4

TableM4.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforRushHourSensitivityStudy................................................M5

TableM5.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforI64WBFullClosureSensitivityStudy................................M6

TableN1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N1

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EXECUTIVE

SUMMARY

Thisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelop

Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE) for the Surry Power Station (SPS) located in Surry County,

Virginia.ETEarepartoftherequiredplanningbasisandprovideDominionandStateandlocal

governmentswithsitespecificinformationneededforProtectiveActiondecisionmaking.

In the performance of this effort, guidance is provided by documents published by Federal

Governmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:

x Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies, NUREG/CR7002,

November2011.

x CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansand

Preparedness in Support of Nuclear Power Plants, NUREG0654/FEMAREP1, Rev. 1,

November1980.

x DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR6863,

January2005.

x 10CFR50, Appendix E - Emergency Planning and Preparedness for Production and

UtilizationFacilities

OverviewofProjectActivities

ThisprojectbeganinFebruary,2012andextendedoveraperiodof10months.Themajor

activitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence:

x Attended kickoff meetings with Dominion personnel and emergency management

personnelrepresentingstateandcity/countygovernments.

x Accessed U.S. Census Bureau data files for the year 2010. Studied Geographical

InformationSystems(GIS)mapsoftheareainthevicinityoftheSPS,thenconducteda

detailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaynetwork.

x Synthesized this information to create an analysis network representing the highway

system topology and capacities within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ), plus a

ShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15

milesradiallyfromtheplant.

x Designed and sponsored a telephone survey of residents within the EPZ to gather

focused data needed for this ETE study that were not contained within the census

database.Thesurveyinstrumentwasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsite

responseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey.

x Datacollectionforms(providedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting)werereturnedwith

data pertaining to employment, transients, and special facilities in each city/county.

Telephonecallstospecificfacilitiessupplementedthedataprovided.

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Rev.1

x The traffic demand and tripgeneration rates of evacuating vehicles were estimated

fromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilization

time(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computed

usingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.

x Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto30PAZs.ThesePAZsarethen

grouped within circular areas or keyhole configurations (circles plus radial sectors)

thatdefineatotalof41EvacuationRegions.

x ThetimevaryingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,each

described in terms of the following factors: (1) Season (Summer, Winter); (2) Day of

Week(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,

Rain,Snow).OnespecialeventscenarioinvolvingtheNewportNewsFallFestivalof

Folklifewasconsidered.Oneroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasingle

lanewasclosedonInterstate64westboundforthedurationoftheevacuation.

x Staged evacuation was considered for those regions wherein the 2 mile radius and

sectorsdownwindto5mileswereevacuated.

x AsperNUREG/CR7002,thePlanningBasisforthecalculationofETEis:

A rapidly escalating accident at the PLANT that quickly assumes the status of

General Emergency such that the Advisory to Evacuate is virtually coincident

withthesirenalert,andnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.

Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measured

astheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthestatedpercentageof

the population exits the impacted Region, that represent upper bound

estimates.ThisconservativePlanningBasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents.

x Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthe

childrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoevacuationassemblycentersorreceiving

schoolslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtonot

pick up their children at school prior to the arrival of the buses dispatched for that

purpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately.

x Evacuees who do not have access to a private vehicle will either rideshare with

relatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedinthe

city/countyevacuationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswilllikewisebeevacuatedwith

public transit, as needed: bus, van, or ambulance, as required. Separate ETE are

calculated for the transitdependent evacuees, for homebound special needs

population,andforthoseevacuatedfromspecialfacilities.

ComputationofETE

Atotalof574ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifies

theaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe41Evacuation

Regions to evacuate from that Region, under the circumstances defined for one of the 14

Evacuation Scenarios (41 x 14 = 574). Separate ETE are calculated for transitdependent

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Rev.1

evacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.

ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeople

withintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlyto

thosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthe

people within the impacted region will evacuate in response to this Advisory. The people

occupying the remainder of the EPZ outside the impacted region may be advised to take

shelter.

ThecomputationofETEassumesthat20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbutoutsidethe

impactedregion,willelecttovoluntarilyevacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationinthe

ShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewho

are evacuating from within the impacted region. The impedance that could be caused by

voluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfortheimpactedregion.

Staged evacuation is considered wherein those people within the 2mile region evacuate

immediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelterinplace.Once90%ofthe

2mile region is evacuated, those people beyond 2 miles begin to evacuate. As per federal

guidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillevacuate(noncompliance)eventhoughtheyare

advisedtoshelterinplace.

Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows:

x A linknode representation of the highway network is coded. Each link represents a

unidirectionallengthofhighway;eachnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormerge

point.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsand

onestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures.

x Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalledzonalcentroidslocatedwithin

the EPZ and Shadow Region. The trip generation rates vary over time reflectingthe

mobilization process, and from one location (centroid) to another depending on

populationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea.

x Theevacuationmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatare

compliantwithfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),then

simulate the traffic flow movements over space and time. This simulation process

estimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.

TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofthe

populationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.These

statistics are presented in tabular and graphical formats. The 90th percentile ETE have been

identified as the values that should be considered when making protective action decisions

becausethe100thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelonger

tomobilize.ThisisreferredtoastheevacuationtailinSection4.0ofNUREG/CR7002.

The use ofa public outreach (information) program to emphasize the need for evacuees to

minimizethetimeneededtopreparetoevacuate(securethehome,assembleneededclothes,

medicines,etc.)shouldalsobeconsidered.

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Rev.1

TrafficManagement

This study references the comprehensive traffic management plans provided by James City,

York,IsleofWightandSurryCountiesandtheCitiesofWilliamsburgandNewportNews.No

additionaltrafficoraccesscontrolmeasureshavebeenidentifiedasaresultofthisstudy.

SelectedResults

A compilation of selected information is presented on the following pages in the form of

FiguresandTablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow.

x Figure 61 displays a map of the SPS EPZ showing the layout of the 30 PAZs that

comprise,inaggregate,theEPZ.

x Table31presentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachPAZbased

onthe2010Censusdata.

x Table61defineseachofthe41EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroups

ofPAZ.

x Table62liststheEvacuationScenarios.

x Tables71and72arecompilationsofETE.Thesedataarethetimesneededtoclear

theindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopulationoccupyingtheseregions,

respectively. These computed ETE include consideration of mobilization time and of

estimated voluntary evacuations from other regions within the EPZ and from the

ShadowRegion.

x Tables 73 and 74 present ETE for the 2mile region for unstaged and staged

evacuationsforthe90thand100thpercentiles,respectively.

x Table87presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather.

x Table811presentsETEforthetransitdependentpopulationingoodweather.

x FigureH8presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR08)tobeevacuated

under the circumstances defined in Table 61. Maps of all regions are provided in

AppendixH.

Conclusions

x General population ETE were computed for 574 unique cases - a combination of 41

uniqueEvacuationRegionsand14uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Table71andTable72

document these ETE for the 90th and 100th percentiles. These ETE range from 1:00

(hr:min)to5:25atthe90thpercentile.

x InspectionofTable71andTable72indicatesthattheETEforthe100thpercentileare

significantlylongerthanthoseforthe90thpercentile.Thisistheresultofthecongestion

within the EPZ. When the system becomes congested, traffic exits the EPZ at rates

somewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutes

clear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.

Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremaining

demand.SeeFigures79through722.

x InspectionofTable73andTable74indicatesthatastagedevacuationprovidesno

SurryPowerStation

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Rev.1

benefits to evacuees from within the 2 mile region due to the lack of impedance to

trafficevacuatingfromPAZ8.SeeSection7.5foradditionaldiscussion.

x ComparisonofScenarios9(winter,weekend,midday,goodweather)and13(winter,

weekend,midday,goodweather,specialevent)inTable71indicatesthatthespecial

eventincreasesthe90percentileETEforregionsincludingPAZ16inNewportNews.See

Section7.4foradditionaldiscussion.

x ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable71indicatesthattheroadwayclosure-a

singlelaneonI64westbound-significantlyimpactsthe90thpercentileETEforsome

evacuatingregions,withincreasesofupto1:25..

x The area north of Williamsburg experiences the greatest congestion during an

evacuation.PAZ23isthelastintheEPZtoexhibittrafficcongestion.Althoughmore

heavily populated, the eastern portion of the EPZ benefits from a larger number of

highercapacityroadwaysthanareavailablenorthofWilliamsburg.Theruralportionof

theEPZwhichliessouthofJamesRiverdoesnotdevelopanycongestion.Allcongestion

withintheEPZclearsby6hoursand15minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.See

Section7.3andFigures73through78.

x SeparateETEwerecomputedforschools,medicalfacilities,transitdependentpersons

and homebound special needs persons. The average singlewave ETE for schools,

medical facilities and transitdependent persons are within a similar range as the

generalpopulationETEatthe90thpercentile.However,theETEforhomeboundspecial

needsexceedsthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90thpercentile.SeeSection8.

x Table 85 indicates that there are enough buses and wheelchair buses available to

evacuatethetransitdependentpopulationwithintheEPZinasinglewave;however,

there are not enough ambulances to evacuate the bedridden population in a single

wave.SeeSections8.4and8.5.

x ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe90thpercentileisinsensitivetoreductionsinthebase

tripgenerationtimeof43/4hoursduetothetrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ.SeeTable

M1.

x The general population ETE is relatively insensitive to the voluntary evacuation of

vehicles in the Shadow Region (tripling the shadow evacuation percentage only

increases90thpercentileETEby25minutes).SeeTableM2.

x APopulationincreaseof15%resultsinETEchangeswhichmeetthecriteriaforupdating

ETEbetweendecennialcensuses.SeeSectionM.3.

x Additional congestion at the onset of evacuation caused by external (transient) trips

associatedwithpeakcommutinghoursincreasesthe90thpercentileETEforthefullEPZ

by15minutes.SeesectionM.4.

x A full closure of I64 westbound significantly impacts the 90th percentile ETE with

increasesof1:10.SeesectionM.5.

SurryPowerStation

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Rev.1

Figure61.SPSEPZPAZs

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Rev.1

Table31.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation

PAZ

2000

Population 2010

Population 1

262

244

2

810

884

3

480

514

4

233

236

5

566

618

6

239

177

7

233

262

8

0

9

0

603

10

199

200

11

94

82

12

68

95

13

1,093

1,167

14

5,738

5,914

15

25,625

25,003

16

46,010

45,649

17

1,505

1,974

18A

1,317

1,374

18B

4,094

4,153

18C

3,331

3,960

18D

63

71

19A

4,739

6,214

19B

591

1,033

20A

690

877

20B

1,579

2,521

21

11,885

13,384

22A

965

1,305

22B

2,972

3,460

23

12,351

19,627

24

8,417

11,076

TOTAL

136,149

152,677

EPZPopulation

Growth:

12.14%

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EvacuationTimeEstimate

Rev.1

Table61.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions

Reg ion

Desc ription

PAZ

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18A

18B

18C

18D

19A

19B

20A

20B

21

22A

22B

23

24

R01

2Mile

Radius

x

R02

5Mile

Radius

x x x

x x

x

R03

FullEPZ

x x x x x x x x x x

x

Evacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5Miles

Reg ion

Wind

Direction

Towards

PAZ

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18A

18B

18C

18D

19A

19B

20A

20B

21

22A

22B

23

24

R04

NNW,N

x

R05

NNE

x

R06

NE,ENE

x

R07

E

x

N/A

ESE

RefertoR01

R08

SE

x x

R09

SSE,S

x

x x

R10

SSW

x x

R11

SW

x x

x

R12

WSW,W

x x

x

R13

WNW

x x

x

R14

NW

x

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Rev.1

Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindto10Miles

Reg ion

Wind

Direction

Towards

PAZ

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18A

18B

18C

18D

19A

19B

20A

20B

21

22A

22B

23

24

R15

NNW,N

x x x

x x

x

R16

NNE

x x x

x x

x

R17

NE

x x x

x x

x

R18

ENE

x x x

x x

x

R19

E

x x x

x x

x

R20

ESE

x x x

x x

x

R21

SE

x x x

x x

x

R22

SSE

x x x

x

R23

S

x x x x x x x

x

R24

SSW

x x x x x x x x

x

R25

SW

x x x x x x x x x x

x

R26

WSW

x x x x x x x x x

x

R27

W

x x x x x x

x x

x

R28

WNW

x

x x x

x x

x

R29

NW

x

x x x

x x

x

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EvacuationTimeEstimate

Rev.1

StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5Miles

Reg ion

Wind

Direction

Towards

PAZ

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18A

18B

18C

18D

19A

19B

20A

20B

21

22A

22B

23

24

R30

NNW,N

x

R31

NNE

x

R32

NE,ENE

x

R33

E

x

N/A

ESE

RefertoR01

R34

SE

x x

R35

SSE,S

x

x x

R36

SSW

x x

R37

SW

x x

x

R38

WSW,W

x x

x

R39

WNW

x x

x

R40

NW

x

R41

5Mile

Region

x x x

x x

x

PAZ(s)ShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,

thenEvacuate

PAZ(s)ShelterinPlace

PAZ(s)Evacuate

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Rev.1

Table62.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions

Scenario

Season1

Dayof

Week

Timeof

Day

Weather

Special

1

Summer

Midweek

Midday

Good

None

2

Summer

Midweek

Midday

Rain

None

3

Summer

Weekend

Midday

Good

None

4

Summer

Weekend

Midday

Rain

None

5

Summer

Midweek,

Weekend

Evening

Good

None

6

Winter

Midweek

Midday

Good

None

7

Winter

Midweek

Midday

Rain

None

8

Winter

Midweek

Midday

Snow

None

9

Winter

Weekend

Midday

Good

None

10

Winter

Weekend

Midday

Rain

None

11

Winter

Weekend

Midday

Snow

None

12

Winter

Midweek,

Weekend

Evening

Good

None

13

Winter

Weekend

Midday

Good

NewportNewsFall

FestivalofFolklife

14

Summer

Midweek

Midday

Good

RoadwayImpact-Lane

ClosureonI64WB

1Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnot

insession.

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EvacuationTimeEstimate

Rev.1

Table71.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation

Summer

Winter

Summer

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Scenario:

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

(13)

(14)

Region

Midday

Evening

Midday

Evening

Midday

Good

Weather

Rain

Good

Weather

Rain

Good

Weather

Good

Weather

Rain

Snow

Good

Weather

Rain

Snow

Good

Weather

Special

Event

Roadway Impact

Entire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZ

R01

1:05

1:00

1:00 1:00 1:05 1:05 1:05 1:00

1:00 1:00 1:00 1:00 1:05 R02

2:15

2:10

2:10 2:05 2:20 2:20 3:05 2:10

2:15 2:55 2:15 2:10 3:05 R03

4:15

4:45

3:50

4:05 3:15 3:40 4:00 4:20 3:10

3:30 3:50 3:05 3:35 5:10 2MileRegionandKeyholeto5Miles

R04

1:55

1:40

1:50 1:45 2:25 2:25 3:05 2:05

2:05 2:55 2:10 2:05 1:55 R05

2:10

2:15

2:05

2:10 2:00 2:20 2:20 3:00 2:10

2:10 2:50 2:15 2:10 3:15 R06

1:55

2:10

2:05

2:05 1:50 2:15 2:15 2:45 2:05

2:05 2:40 2:10 2:05 3:20 R07

1:10

1:25

1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:15 1:25

1:25 1:50 1:25 1:25 1:10 R08

2:00

2:25

2:25 2:25 2:00 2:00 2:40 2:25

2:25 3:10 2:25 2:25 2:00 R09

2:10

2:25

2:30 2:25 2:10 2:10 2:50 2:25

2:30 3:15 2:25 2:25 2:10 R10

2:25

2:30

2:30 2:30 2:25 2:25 3:05 2:30

2:30 3:20 2:30 2:30 2:25 R11

2:05

2:25

2:25 2:25 2:05 2:05 2:45 2:25

2:25 3:15 2:25 2:25 2:05 R12

2:10

2:15

2:20

2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:50 2:20

2:20 3:15 2:20 2:20 2:10 R13

2:25

2:20

2:20 2:20 2:25 2:25 3:15 2:20

2:25 3:15 2:25 2:20 2:25 R14

2:30

2:20

2:20 2:25 2:30 2:30 3:20 2:25

2:25 3:15 2:25 2:25 2:30

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Rev.1

Summer

Winter

Summer

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Scenario:

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

(13)

(14)

Region

Midday

Evening

Midday

Evening

Midday

Good

Weather

Rain

Good

Weather

Rain

Good

Weather

Good

Weather

Rain

Snow

Good

Weather

Rain

Snow

Good

Weather

Special

Event

Roadway Impact

5MileRegionandKeyholetoEPZBoundary

R15

4:25

5:00

4:05

4:20 3:35 4:00 4:15 4:35 3:30

3:40 4:05 3:10 3:30 5:25 R16

3:55

4:15

3:35

3:45 2:55 3:30 3:45 4:00 3:00

3:15 3:40 2:40 3:00 5:05 R17

2:45

3:00

2:40

2:50 2:20 2:40 2:50 3:25 2:35

2:45 3:15 2:20 2:55 3:10 R18

2:40

2:50

2:35

2:35 2:25 2:45 2:50 3:25 2:30

2:35 3:15 2:20 2:55 3:00 R19

3:00

3:20

2:50

3:00 2:45 3:00 3:20 3:45 2:50

3:00 3:30 2:45 3:10 3:10 R20

3:05

3:15

2:50

3:00 2:45 3:00 3:15 3:40 2:50

3:00 3:30 2:50 3:10 3:20 R21

3:05

3:15

2:50

3:00 2:45 3:00 3:15 3:40 2:50

3:00 3:30 2:50 3:10 3:20 R22

2:15

2:00

2:05 2:10 2:30 2:30 3:15 2:15

2:15 3:05 2:20 2:15 2:15 R23

2:30

2:35

2:25

2:30 2:00 2:25 2:30 3:05 2:20

2:30 3:00 2:10 2:20 2:30 R24

2:30

2:35

2:25

2:30 2:00 2:25 2:30 3:05 2:20

2:30 3:00 2:10 2:20 2:30 R25

2:30

2:35

2:25

2:30 2:00 2:25 2:30 3:05 2:20

2:30 3:00 2:10 2:20 2:30 R26

2:30

2:35

2:25

2:30 2:00 2:25 2:30 3:05 2:20

2:25 3:00 2:10 2:20 2:30 R27

2:30

2:40

2:25

2:35 2:15 2:30 2:35 3:10 2:20

2:30 3:00 2:15 2:25 2:30 R28

3:20

3:35

2:50

3:00 2:45 3:10 3:15 3:45 2:45

2:55 3:25 2:45 2:50 3:20 R29

4:10

4:25

3:40

3:50 3:10 3:45 3:55 4:35 3:20

3:25 3:50 2:55 3:20 4:50 StagedEvacuation2MileRegionandDownwindto5Miles

R30

1:55

1:40

1:50 1:50 2:25 2:25 3:10 2:05

2:05 2:55 2:10 2:05 2:00 R31

2:05

1:50

2:00 2:00 2:25 2:25 3:10 2:10

2:10 3:00 2:15 2:10 2:05 R32

1:55

2:00

1:45

2:00 1:50 2:15 2:20 3:00 2:05

2:05 2:50 2:15 2:05 1:55 R33

1:10

1:25

1:25 1:25 1:15 1:15 1:15 1:25

1:25 1:50 1:25 1:25 1:10 R34

2:00

2:25

2:25 2:25 2:00 2:00 2:40 2:25

2:25 3:10 2:25 2:25 2:00 R35

2:10

2:25

2:30 2:25 2:10 2:10 2:50 2:25

2:30 3:15 2:25 2:25 2:10 R36

2:25

2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 3:05 2:25

2:25 3:20 2:25 2:25 2:25 R37

2:05

2:25

2:25 2:25 2:05 2:05 2:45 2:25

2:25 3:15 2:25 2:25 2:05 R38

2:15

2:20

2:20 2:20 2:10 2:10 2:55 2:20

2:20 3:15 2:20 2:20 2:15 R39

2:25

2:20

2:20 2:20 2:25 2:25 3:15 2:25

2:25 3:15 2:25 2:25 2:25 R40

2:30

2:25

2:25 2:25 2:30 2:30 3:20 2:25

2:25 3:15 2:25 2:25 2:30 R41

2:10

1:55

2:05 2:05 2:25 2:25 3:10 2:15

2:15 3:00 2:15 2:15 2:10

SurryPowerStation

ES14

KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate

Rev.1

Table72.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation

Summer

Winter

Summer

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Weekend

Midweek

Scenario:

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

(7)

(8)

(9)

(10)

(11)

(12)

(13)

(14)

Region

Midday

Evening

Midday

Evening

Midday

Good

Weather

Rain

Good

Weather

Rain

Good

Weather

Good

Weather

Rain

Snow

Good

Weather

Rain

Snow

Good

Weather

Special

Event

Roadway Impact

Entire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZ

R01

1:45

1:45 1:45 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:45

1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 1:45 R02

4:50

4:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 6:50 4:50

4:50 6:50 4:50 4:50 4:50 R03

6:35

7:15