ML13037A630

Kld TR-528, Final Report, Rev. 1, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Chapter 8 Transit-Dependent and Special Facility Evacuation Time Estimates, Page 8-1 Through Appendix H, Evaluation Regions Cover Page

ML13037A630
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Site:	Surry
Issue date:	12/31/2012
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12-727 KLD TR-528, Rev 1
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Text

8 TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES

Thissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtime

estimates for transit vehicles. The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three

populationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuch

as schools, medical facilities, and correctional facilities; and (3) homebound special needs

population.

These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of

passengercars(pcs).Thepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamis

representedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopcs.

Thisequivalencefactorrepresentsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristics

ofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofapc.

Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.

Specifically:

• Busdriversmustbealerted

• Theymusttraveltothebusdepot

• Theymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacility

These activities consume time.  Based on discussion with the offsite agencies, it is estimated

thatbusmobilizationtimeswillaverageapproximately180minutesfortheschoolbusesofthe

combined James City County and Williamsburg school district, 110 minutes for York County

schools buses, 145 minutes for school buses in all other cities/counties and 180 minutes for

transitbuses,extendingfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate,tothetimewhenbusesfirstarriveat

the facility to be evacuated. These mobilization times are increased for rain and snow/ice

conditionsby10and20minutesrespectively.

Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizationactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseis

the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school

prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families. Virtually all studies of

evacuations have concluded that this bonding process of uniting families is universally

prevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.Thecurrent

publicinformationdisseminatedtoresidentsoftheSPSEPZindicatesthatschoolchildrenmay

beevacuatedtoreceivingschoolsatemergencyactionlevelsofAlertorhigher.Asdiscussedin

Section 2, this study assumes a fast breaking general emergency. Therefore, children are

evacuatedtoreceivingschools.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionat

theschools,delayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren,whichmayhaveto

returninasubsequentwavetotheEPZtoevacuatethetransitdependentpopulation.This

reportprovidesestimatesofbusesundertheassumptionthatnochildrenwillbepickedupby

their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR7002), to present an upper bound estimate of

buses required. It is assumed that children at daycare centers without dedicated

transportationresourcesarepickedupbyparentsorguardiansandthatthetimetoperform

thisactivityisincludedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedinSection5.



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

TheprocedureforcomputingtransitdependentETEisto:

• Estimatedemandfortransitservice

• Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions

• EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtotheEvacuationAssembly

Centers(EAC)

8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate

The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the

populationrequiringtransitservice:

• Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable.

• Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailableat

thetimetheevacuationisadvised.

Inthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnot

expectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.

Table81presentsestimatesoftransitdependentpeople.Note:

• Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthose

evacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,

separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfor

transitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimates.However,

estimatesoftransitvehiclesarenotreducedwhenschoolsareinsession.

• Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransitdependentpersons

willevacuatebyridesharingwithneighbors,friendsorfamily.Forexample,nearly

80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheir

owncars,sharedaridewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthat

approximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaride

sharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransit

dependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR7002.

Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransitdependentpersonsisbasedonan

estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run.  Transit

vehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60childrenonaverage(roughlyequivalent

to40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthe

numberofadultseatstakenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverage

load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent.  Thus, if the actual demand for service

exceeds the estimates of Table 81 by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be

accommodatedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.









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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table 81 indicates that transportation must be provided for 3,480 people. Therefore, an

estimated116busrunsarerequiredtoservicethisdemand.However,122busesareneededin

order to meet the necessary demand in urban areas while servicing all of the 9 rural, lightly

populatedbusroutesoutlinedthecountyemergencyplanswithonebuseach.

Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublic

transitorrideshare,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredfortheSPSEPZ:

   

Where,

A=Percentofhouseholdswithcommuters

C=Percentofhouseholdswhowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuter









Thesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:

• Allmembers(1.50avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(3.23%)willevacuateby

publictransitorrideshare.Theterm61,813(numberofhouseholds)x0.0323x

1.50,accountsforthesepeople.

• ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(27.27%),whoareathome,equal(1.791).

ThenumberofHHwherethecommuterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(61,813x

0.2727x0.57x0.40),as57%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,40%ofwhich

wouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumberofpersonswho

willevacuatebypublictransitorrideshareisequaltotheproductofthesetwo

terms.

• ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(50.71%),whoareathome,equal

(2.57-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto

61,813x0.5071x(0.57x0.40)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublic

transitorrideshareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermis

squaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).

• Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransit

vehicles.

• ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHH

withnovehicles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.

TheestimateoftransitdependentpopulationinTable81farexceedsthenumberofregistered

transitdependent persons in the EPZ as provided by the cities/counties (discussed below in



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Section8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR6953,Volume2,inthatalarge

majority of the transitdependent population within the EPZs of U.S. nuclear plants does not

registerwiththeirlocalemergencyresponseagency.

TheRERPofthecitiesandcountiesstatethatifanevacuationadvisoryisissued,newsreleases

willprovidethepublicwithtelephonenumberstocallinordertogettransportationassistance.

8.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand

Table 82 presents the school population and transportation requirements for the direct

evacuationofallschoolswithintheEPZforthe20112012schoolyear.Thisinformationwas

provided by the local emergency management agencies.  The column in Table 82 entitled

BusesRequiredspecifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunderthefollowing

setofassumptionsandestimates:

• Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses.

• Whilemanyhighschoolstudentscommutetoschoolusingprivateautomobiles(as

discussedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR7002),theestimateofbusesrequiredfor

schoolevacuationdonotconsidertheuseoftheseprivatevehicles.

• Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschoolsand50

formiddleandhighschools.

• Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanythestudentswillevacuateintheir

privatevehicles.

• Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdaily.

It is recommended that the cities/counties in the EPZ introduce procedures whereby the

schoolsarecontactedpriortothedispatchofbusesfromthedepot,toascertainthecurrent

estimate of students to be evacuated.  In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the

schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any

high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school

authorities). Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed

due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other

facilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveaccesstoprivatevehiclesortoridesharing.

Table83presentsalistofthereceivingschoolsforeachschoolintheEPZthatdoesnotrelyon

parents to provide for the transportation of students.  Students will be transported to these

schools where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families. York County

schools may evacuate to either New Kent High School (NKHS) or Grafton Complex (GC)

dependingonprevailingconditions.

8.3 MedicalFacilityDemand

Table84presentsthecensusofmedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.993peoplehavebeenidentified

aslivingin,orbeingtreatedin,thesefacilities.Thecapacityandcurrentcensusforeachfacility

were provided by the local emergency management agencies.  This data also includes the

number of ambulatory, wheelchairbound and bedridden patients for a portion of these



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

facilities.Theaveragedistributionofambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpatientsfor

thoseprovidedwereappliedtotheremainingfacilities.

ThetransportationrequirementsforthemedicalfacilitypopulationarealsopresentedinTable

84. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can be

accommodated per ambulance trip; the number of wheelchair bus runs assumes 20

wheelchairspertripandthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientsper

trip.

8.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople

EPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetime

oftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationof

busesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhat

inefficient,orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsome

busestoreturntotheEPZfromtheassemblycenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,

tocompleteasecondwaveofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,the

ETE for the transitdependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit

evacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03

(the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the

impactedRegionandthisdiscussionofasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.

When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the

transitdependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbe

dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to

boardthebuseswhentheyarriveatthepickuppoints.

Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and

adverse weather conditions. Figure 81 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit

operations. TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure

81.

Activity:MobilizeDrivers(ABC)

MobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveat

thefacilitytobeevacuated.Localemergencyplannersprovidedestimatesforlengthoftime

schoolbusdriverswouldlikelyrequiretobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,and

to travel to the transitdependent facilities. The responses varied by city/county from 110

minutesto180minutes,withanaverageof145minutes.Mobilizationtimeisslightlylongerin

adverseweather-10minuteslongerwhenraining,20minuteslongerwhensnowing.

Activity:BoardPassengers(CD)

Based on discussions with offsite agencies,a loading timeof 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain

and25minutesforsnow)forschoolbusesisused.

For multiple stops along a pickup route (transitdependent bus routes) estimation of travel

timemustallowforthedelayassociatedwithstoppingandstartingateachpickuppoint.The



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

time,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,a,expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,

v, expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final

speedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:

,

WhereB=Dwelltimetoservicepassengers.Thetotaldistance,sinfeet,travelledduringthe

deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service

passengers,but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over thedistance, s,

wouldbe:s/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:



Assigningreasonableestimates:

• B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,to

boardperstop

• v=25mph=37ft/sec

• a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerate

Then,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespickuptimeperbusrunimplies30stopsper

run,forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeedwillbelessinrain;total

loadingtimeis40minutesperbusinrain,50minutesinsnow.

Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(DE)

SchoolEvacuation

Transportation resources available were provided by the EPZ city/county emergency

management agencies and are summarized in Table 85.  Also included in the table are the

numberofbusesneededtoevacuateschools,medicalfacilities,transitdependentpopulation,

andhomeboundspecialneeds(discussedbelowinSection8.5).Thesenumbersindicatethere

aresufficientresourcesavailabletoevacuateeveryoneinasinglewave,withtheexceptionof

the bedridden population within the EPZ, which requires two waves of ambulance

transportation.

Thebusesservicingtheschoolsarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsatanaverageof160

minutes after the advisory to evacuate - 145 minutes mobilization time on average plus 15

minutes loading time - in good weather.  The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was

usedtodefinebusroutesalongthemostlikelypathfromaschoolbeingevacuatedtotheEPZ

boundary, traveling toward the appropriate receiving school. This is done in UNITES by

interactivelyselectingtheseriesofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.Eachbusroute

isgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentotheDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVcomputes

theroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteinterval,foreachbusroute.

The specified bus routes are documented in Table 86 (refer to the maps of the linknode

analysis network in Appendix K for node locations). Data provided by DYNEV during the

appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 145 to 150

minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuateforgoodweather)wereusedtocomputetheaverage



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

speedforeachroute,asfollows:



 

 

 

  





The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the

schoolsintheEPZisshowninTable87throughTable89forschoolevacuation,andinTable

811 through Table 813 for the transit vehicles evacuating transitdependent persons, which

arediscussedlater.

ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaverage

speedandthedistancetotheEPZ boundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.The

traveltimefromtheEPZboundarytothereceivingschoolwascomputedassuminganaverage

speedof45mph,40mph,and35mphforgoodweather,rainandsnow,respectively.Speeds

werereducedinTable87throughTable89andinTable811throughTable813to45mph

(40mphforrain-10%decrease,roundedtothenearest5mph-and35mphforsnow-20%

decrease,roundedtothenearest5mph)forthosecalculatedbusspeedswhichexceed45mph,

astheschoolbusspeedlimitfornoninterstateroadsinVirginiais45mph,orthespeedlimit,

whicheverisless.

Table 87 (good weather), Table 88 (rain) and Table 89 (snow) present the following

evacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)The

elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed

time until the bus reaches the receiving school. The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be

computed as the sum of times associated with Activities ABC, CD, and DE (For

example:180min+15+64=4:20forClaraByrdBakerElementarySchool,withgoodweather).

Theevacuationtimeto thereceiverschoolisdeterminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwith

ActivityEF(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevacuaon.EvacuationtripsoriginatingatanyYork

Countyschoolmaytakeoneoftwopathstoeitherofthetwopotentialreceivingschools.ETE

are reported for both potential trips for all York County schools and are designated with the

initialsoftherelevantreceiverschool(NKHSorGC)attheendoftheevacuatingschoolsname.

EvacuationofTransitDependentPopulation

The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transitdependent evacuees will be

scheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompleted

theirmobilization.As showninFigure54(ResidentswithnoCommuters),approximately95

percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,

approximately180minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Thosebusesservicingthetransitdependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpredestinated

routes,thenproceedoutoftheEPZ.Thecity/countyemergencyplansdefinebusroutes.For

eachlocalityTable86outlinesthe43Generalpopulationbusroutesoutlinedinthecity/county

emergency plans. It is assumed that residents will walk to and congregate at predesignated

pickuplocations,andthattheycanarriveatthestopswithinthe180minutebusmobilization

time(goodweather).DetaileddescriptionsofeachbusrouteareavailableinAppendix3ofthe

RadiologicalEmergencyPreparednessPlanforeachrespectivecity/countywithintheEPZ.

As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30

individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaverageofoneminuteofdelayassociatedwith

each stop. A longer pickup time of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow,

respectively.

The travel distance along the respective pickup routes within the EPZ is estimated using GIS

software.  Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by

DYNEV,usingtheaforementionedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.

Table 811 through Table 813 present the transitdependent population evacuation time

estimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweather,rainand

snow,respectively.

Forexample,theETEforthebusrouteservicingRoute1iscomputedas180+12+30=3:45for

good weather (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes). Here, 12 minutes is the time to travel 9.1

miles at 44.3 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 180

minutes.  The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a

shortfallofavailablebusesorbusdrivers,aspreviouslydiscussed.

Activity:TraveltoEvacuationAssemblyCenters(EF)

ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytotheevacuationassemblycentersaremeasuredusing

GISsoftwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZexitpointtotheassemblycenter.The

assembly centers are mapped in Figure 101. For a onewave evacuation, this travel time

outsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwowaveevacuation,theETEforbuses

must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general population.

Assumed bus speeds of 45 mph, 40 mph, and 35 mph for good weather, rain, and snow,

respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transitdependent

population.

Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(FG)

Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.

Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(GC)

The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a second wave evacuation of transit dependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransitdependentpeoplewho

mobilized more quickly.  The first wave of transitdependent people depart the bus, and the

bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit dependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZisequaltothetraveltime



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

totheEAC.

ThesecondwaveETEforRoute1iscomputedasfollowsforgoodweather:

• BusarrivesatEACat3:55ingoodweather(3:45toexitEPZ+10minutetraveltime

toEAC).

• Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10minuterest:15

minutes.

• BusreturnstoEPZandcompletessecondroute:22minutes{equaltotraveltimeto

EAC(10minutes)+timetoreturntothebeginningofthebusroute(9.1miles@45

mph)}+12minutes(outboundroutetravel,9.1miles@45mph)=34minutes

• Buscompletespickupsalongroute:30minutes.

• BusexitsEPZattime3:45+0:10+0:15+0:34+0:30=5:15(roundeduptonearest

5minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.

The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transitdependent bus routes are

provided in Table 811 through Table 813.  The average ETE for a twowave evacuation of

transitdependentpeopleexceedstheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90thpercentileby

over2hours.

TherelocationoftransitdependentevacueesfromtheEACtocongregatecarecenters,ifthe

cities/countiesdecidetodoso,isnotconsideredinthisstudy.

EvacuationofMedicalFacilities

Asstatedinthecity/countyRERPs,itisexpectedthatInstitutionswillprovidetransportation

for their own individuals. Additional transportation resources may be available from the

city/county,thedetailsaboutwhichvarybycity/county.

Theevacuationofthesefacilitiesissimilartoschoolevacuationexcept:

• Busesareassignedonthebasisof30patientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythe

patients.Wheelchairbusescanaccommodate20patients,andambulancescan

accommodate2patients.

• Loadingtimesof1minute,5minutes,and15minutesperpatientareassumedfor

ambulatorypatients,wheelchairboundpatients,andbedriddenpatients,

respectively.

Table84indicatesthat24busruns,24wheelchairbusrunsand56ambulancerunsareneeded

toserviceallofthemedicalfacilitiesintheEPZ.AccordingtoTable85,thecities/countiescan

collectively provide 783 buses, 101 wheelchair buses, and 38 ambulances.  Thus, there are

sufficient resources to evacuate the ambulatory and wheelchair bound persons from the

medical facilities in a single wave, but, unless additional ambulances are available from

neighboringcounties,atwowaveevacuationisneededforambulancesevacuatingbedridden

patients.

As in the case of the transit dependent residential population, it is estimated that bus

mobilizationtimeaverages180minutes.Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheir

regularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneeded)



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

couldbemobilizedoverthissame180minutetimeframe.

Table814throughTable816summarizetheETEformedicalfacilitieswithintheEPZforgood

weather,rain,andsnow.AveragespeedsoutputbythemodelforScenario6(Scenario7for

rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 45 mph (40 mph for rain and 35 mph for

snow),areusedtocomputetraveltimetoEPZboundary.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundary

iscomputedbydividingthedistancetotheEPZboundarybytheaveragetravelspeed.TheETE

is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the

EPZ.Concurrentloadingonmultiplebuses,wheelchairbuses/vans,andambulancesatcapacity

isassumedsuchthatthemaximumloadingtimesforbuses,wheelchairbusesandambulances

are30,100and30minutes,respectively.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.For

example,thecalculationofETEfortheChambrelatWilliamsburgwith46ambulatoryresidents

duringgoodweatheris:

ETE:180+30+49=259min.or4:20roundedtothenearest5minutes.

Itisassumedthatmedicalfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedical

facilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughtheEAC

beforearrivingatthehostfacilityarenotconsideredinthisanalysis.

8.5 SpecialNeedsPopulation

The city/county emergency management agencies have a registration for transitdependent

andhomeboundspecialneedspersons.Basedondataprovidedbythecounties,therearean

estimated348peoplewithintheEPZwhorequiretransportationassistancetoevacuate.Details

onthenumberofambulatory,wheelchairboundandbedriddenpeoplewerenotprovidedfor

alllocalities.Itisassumedthatthesamedistributionofambulatory(72.7%),wheelchairbound

(27%) and bedridden persons (0%) is applicable to those locations where specifics were not

reported.  This results in 253 ambulatory persons, 95 wheelchairbound persons and no

bedriddenpersons.

ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersons

Table817summarizestheETEforhomeboundspecialneedspeople.Thetableiscategorized

bytypeofvehiclerequiredandthenbrokendownbyweathercondition.Thetabletakesinto

considerationthedeploymentofmultiplevehiclestoreducethenumberofstopspervehicle.

Itisconservativelyassumedthatambulatoryandwheelchairboundspecialneedshouseholds

are spaced 3 miles apart and bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart.  Van and bus

speedsapproximate20mphbetweenhouseholdsandambulancespeedsapproximate30mph

ingoodweather(10%slowerinrain,20%slowerinsnow).Mobilizationtimesof180minutes

wereused(190minutesforrain,and200minutesforsnow).ThelastHHisassumedtobe5

milesfromtheEPZboundary,andthenetworkwideaveragespeed,cappedat45mph(40mph

for rain and 35 mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is

computedbysummingmobilizationtime,loadingtimeatfirsthousehold,traveltosubsequent

households,loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds,andtraveltimetoEPZboundary.AllETE

areroundedtothenearest5minutes.



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EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 253

ambulatoryhouseholds need to beserviced. While only9 buses are needed from a capacity

perspective, if 30 buses are deployed to service these special needs HH, then each would

requireabout9stops.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculations:

1. Assume30busesaredeployed,eachwithabout9stops,toserviceatotalof253HH.

2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:

a. Busesarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:180minutes

b. LoadHHmembersatfirstpickup:5minutes

c. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:8@9minutes=72minutes

d. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:8@5minutes=40minutes

e. TraveltoEPZboundary:24minutes(5miles@12.5mph).

ETE:180+5+72+40+24=5:25roundeduptothenearest5minutes

8.6 CorrectionalFacilities

As detailed in Table E6, there is one correctional facility within the EPZ -Virginia Peninsula

RegionalJail.Thecapacityofthisfacilityis595persons.Accordingtoinformationprovidedby

local emergency management officials, this facility would shelter in place in the event of an

evacuationofthegeneralpublic.



SurryPowerStation 811 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

(SubsequentWave)

A B C D E F G Time



Event A AdvisorytoEvacuate B BusDispatchedfromDepot C BusArrivesatFacility/PickupRoute D BusDepartsforReceptionCenter E BusExitsRegion F BusArrivesatAssemblyCenter/HostFacility

G BusAvailableforSecondWaveEvacuationService Activity AoB DriverMobilization BoC TraveltoFacilityortoPickupRoute CoD PassengersBoardtheBus DoE BusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundary EoF BusTravelsTowardsAssemblyCenterOutsidetheEPZ FoG PassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreak

Figure81.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations

 



SurryPowerStation 812 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

E 

Figure82.TransitDependentBusRoutesforIsleofWightCounty 



SurryPowerStation 813 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

E 

Figure83.TransitDependentBusRoutesforSurryCounty



SurryPowerStation 814 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Figure84.TransitDependentBusRoutesforYorkCounty



SurryPowerStation 815 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Figure85.TransitDependentBusRoutesfortheCityofWilliamsburg



SurryPowerStation 816 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Figure86.TransitDependentBusRoutesforJamesCityCounty



SurryPowerStation 817 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Figure87.TransitDependentBusRoutes2429fortheCityofNewportNews



SurryPowerStation 818 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Figure88.TransitDependentBusRoutes3035fortheCityofNewportNews



SurryPowerStation 819 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Figure89.TransitDependentBusRoutes3643fortheCityofNewportNews



SurryPowerStation 820 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Table81.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates



SurveyAverageHH Survey Percent

Size SurveyPercentHH Survey PercentHH Total People Population withIndicatedNo.of Estimated withIndicatedNo.of PercentHH withNon People Estimated Requiring Requiring 2010EPZ Vehicles No.of Vehicles with Returning Requiring Ridesharing Public Public

Population 0 1 2 Households 0 1 2 Commuters Commuters Transport Percentage Transit Transit

152,677 1.50 1.79 2.57 61,813 3.23% 27.27% 50.71% 57% 40% 6,960 50% 3,480 2.3%



SurryPowerStation 821 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table82.SchoolandDaycarePopulationDemandEstimates

Local Buses

PAZ SchoolName Enrollment Required

23 ClaraByrdBakerElementarySchool 509 8

23 DJMontagueElementarySchool 469 7

24 JamestownHighSchool 1,186 24

24 MatoakaElementarySchool 732 11

24 ProvidenceClassicalSchool 195 4

18C GileadChristianAcademy 15 0

18D JamesRiverElementarySchool 493 8

22B RawlsByrdElementarySchool 461 7

14 GeneralStanfordElementarySchool 575 9

15 BCCharlesElementarySchool 546 8

15 FirstBaptistChurchDenbigh 120 2

15 JenkinsElementarySchool 440 7

15 MenchvilleHighSchool 1,776 36

15 SanfordElementarySchool 630 9

15 WarwickRiverChristianSchool 260 5

16 DavidADutrowElementarySchool 487 7

16 DenbighChristianAcademy 180 0

16 DenbighHighSchool 1,421 29

16 EpesElementarySchool 532 8

16 GeorgeJMcIntoshElementary 500 8

16 HolyTabernacleChristianAcademy 94 2

16 JMDozierMiddleSchool 1,145 23

16 LeeHallElementarySchool 634 10

16 MaryPassageMiddleSchool 969 20

16 OliverCGreenwoodElementarySchool 630 9

16 RichneckElementarySchool 674 10

16 RONelsonElementarySchool 584 9

16 WoodsideHighSchool 2,102 43

21 BerkeleyMiddleSchool 829 17

21 CollegeofWilliamandMary 8,200 34

21 MatthewWhaleyElementarySchool 471 7

21 WalsinghamAcademy(LowerSchool) 318 0

21 WalsinghamAcademy(UpperSchool) 243 0

17 YorktownMiddleSchool 621 15

19A MagruderElementarySchool 322 9

19A YorkCountyHeadStart 574 1

20A BrutonHighSchool 65 13



SurryPowerStation 822 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Local Buses

PAZ SchoolName Enrollment Required

20A WallerMillElementarySchool 609 5

20A WilliamsburgHeadStart 747 1

20B QueensLakeMiddleSchool 68 12

TOTAL: 31,426 437

Note:Schoolswhichrequire0busesrelyonparentstoprovidetransportationforstudents.



SurryPowerStation 823 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table83.ReceivingSchools

School ReceivingSchool

ClaraByrdBakerElementarySchool NewKentHighSchool

DJMontagueElementarySchool NewKentHighSchool

JamestownHighSchool LafayetteHighSchool

MatoakaElementarySchool JBBlaytonElementary

ProvidenceClassicalSchool NewKentHighSchool

JamesRiverElementarySchool ToanoMiddleSchool

RawlsByrdElementarySchool StonehouseElementary

GeneralStanfordElementarySchool DeerParkElementarySchool

BCCharlesElementarySchool CarverElementary

FirstBaptistChurchDenbigh NewKentHighSchool

JenkinsElementarySchool CrittendonMiddleSchool

MenchvilleHighSchool HinesMiddleSchool

SanfordElementarySchool RiversideElementary

WarwickRiverChristianSchool TabernacleBaptistChurch

DavidADutrowElementarySchool NewsomeParkElementary

DavidADutrowElementarySchool NewsomeParkElementary

DenbighHighSchool AnAchieveableDreamHighSchool

EpesElementarySchool KilnCreekElementarySchool

GeorgeJMcIntoshElementary AnAchievableDreamElementary

HolyTabernacleChristianAcademy NewportNewsColiseum

JMDozierMiddleSchool HuntingtonMiddleSchool

LeeHallElementarySchool WatkinsEarlyChildhoodCenter

MaryPassageMiddleSchool CrittendonMiddleSchool

OliverCGreenwoodElementarySchool PalmerElementarySchool

RichneckElementarySchool HidenwoodElementary

RONelsonElementarySchool YatesElementarySchool

WoodsideHighSchool HeritageHighSchool

BerkeleyMiddleSchool HornsbyMiddleSchool

CollegeofWilliamandMary NewKentHighSchool

MatthewWhaleyElementarySchool NewKentHighSchool

YorktownMiddleSchool

MagruderElementarySchool

YorkCountyHeadStart

GraftonComplex(GC)and/orNewKentHigh

BrutonHighSchool

School(NKHS)

WallerMillElementarySchool

WilliamsburgHeadStart

QueensLakeMiddleSchool





SurryPowerStation 824 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table84.MedicalFacilityTransitDemand

Wheel

Cap Current Ambu chair Bed WCBus Bus Ambulance

PAZ FacilityName City/County acity Census latory Bound ridden Runs Runs Runs

23 ChambrelatWilliamsburg JamesCity 53 50 46 3 1 1 2 1

23 HancockGeriatricTreatmentCenter JamesCity 300 265 215 20 30 1 8 15

24 ConsulateHealthCare JamesCity 90 85 0 43 44 3 0 22

TheCovalescentatPatriotsColony 24 JamesCity 60 58 13 45 0 3 1 0

Williamsburg

18B MorningsideofWilliamsburg JamesCity 85 80 64 15 1 1 3 1

18C ColonialManorSeniorCommunity JamesCity 65 54 29 25 0 2 1 0

22B WoodhavenHallAtWilliamsburg JamesCity 15 9 5 3 1 1 1 1

Newport

16 St.FrancisNursingCenter 115 105 57 37 11 2 2 6

News

21 EnvoyHealthCare Williamsburg 150 150 0 130 20 7 0 10

21 MadisonRetirementCenter Williamsburg 90 75 65 10 0 1 3 0

21 SpringArborofWilliamsburg Williamsburg 50 50 46 4 0 1 2 0

21 WindsormeadeofWilliamsburg Williamsburg 12 12 3 9 0 1 1 0

Totals 1085 993 543 344 108 24 24 56

 



SurryPowerStation 825 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table85.SummaryofTransportationResources

Transportation WC

Resource Buses Buses Ambulances ResourcesAvailable

NewportNewsPubicSchools 321 0 12

SurryCounty 32 1 3

YorkCounty 205 36 9

WilliamsburgAreaTransportationAuthority(WATA) 20 0 0

W/JCCSchools 156 52 0

CityofWilliamsburg 0 0 3

IsleofWightCounty 49 12 11

TOTAL: 783 101 38

ResourcesNeeded

WC

PopulationGroup/MobilityLevel Buses Buses Ambulances Schools(Table82): 437 0 0

MedicalFacilities(Table84): 24 24 56

TransitDependentPopulation(Table810): 122 0 0

HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5): 30 5 0

TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS: 613 29 56

Note:YorkCountyhasaccessto2trolleyswhicharecountedasbusesinthetableaboveduetosimilaritiesinpassengercapacityandusage.





SurryPowerStation 826 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table86.BusRouteDescriptions

Bus

Route

Number Description NodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary

1 IsleofWightCounty,Route1 1337,945,1013,946,1014,947

2 IsleofWightCounty,Route2 944,945,1013,946,1014,947

3 IsleofWightCounty,Route3 942,943,944,945,1013,946,1014,947

4 IsleofWightCounty,Route4 1316,1024,1022,1338,1021,1023,1352,1003,1004

931,1309,930,1310,1311,1057,1056,1313,1314,1025,

5 SurryCounty,Route1

976,1316

939,938,937,936,935,934,933,932,1308,931,941,

6 SurryCounty,Route2 1012,930,1260,1052,1051,1261,1271,1050,1049,

1262,1259,1047,1258,1048,1030,1084,1083

1271,1272,1273,1274,1275,1276,1277,1278,1279,

7 SurryCounty,Route3

1280,1281,1282,1029

941,1012,930,1260,1052,1051,1261,1271,1050,1049,

8 SurryCounty,Route4

1262,1259,1047,1258,1048,1030,1084,1083

9 SurryCounty,Route5 1263,1262,1259,1047,1258,1048,1030,1084,1083

245,246,241,242,354,355,356,357,358,359,350,

10 YorkCounty,Route1 1216,360,361,362,363,364,365,366,367,368,369,

370,373,673,674

250,248,339,1218,341,308,1225,309,342,353,432,

345,344,346,1219,1221,347,1214,348,349,1215,350,

11 YorkCounty,Route2

1216,360,361,362,363,364,365,366,367,368,369,

370,373,673,674

309,310,1234,410,430,433,438,436,434,377,1236,

12 YorkCounty,Route3

378,1557,379,1558,1237,376,675,385

13 YorkCounty,Route4 1239,379,1558,1237,376,675,385

215,221,1121,176,1117,1111,1107,1108,1109,1110,

14 CityofWilliamsburg,Route1 1135,1136,1137,185,184,183,1141,123,1157,33,34,

35

226,228,189,218,1533,188,187,176,1122,193,1125,

15 CityofWilliamsburg,Route2

1126,180,198,255

335,336,337,219,216,214,215,221,1121,176,1122,

16 CityofWilliamsburg,Route3

193,1125,1126,180,198,255,256,112,118

223,226,228,189,218,1533,188,187,176,1122,193,

17 CityofWilliamsburg,Route4

1125,1126,180,198,255,256,112,118

258,257,208,1092,191,194,1124,193,1125,1126,180,

18 CityofWilliamsburg,Route5

198,255,256,112,118

19 JamesCityCounty,Route1 319,318,320,321,322,323,324,305,304,303,1534,263



SurryPowerStation 827 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Bus

Route

Number Description NodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary

313,1227,315,326,327,429,411,1235,416,419,426,

421,425,423,464,461,458,460,457,455,445,441,447,

20 JamesCityCounty,Route2

442,444,439,440,19,20,21,1440,1441,22,23,24,

1437,25,1436

21 JamesCityCounty,Route3 304,303,1534,263,262

22 JamesCityCounty,Route4 303,1534,263,262

23 JamesCityCounty,Route5 279,302,301,300,1552

457,455,445,441,448,454,451,510,1449,511,509,

24 CityofNewportNews,RouteD1

1453,505,507,508,502,1452,506,22,23,24,1437

378,1236,377,1447,512,380,1438,1439,1440,1441,

25 CityofNewportNews,RouteD2

22,23,24,1437

1454,499,1457,497,495,482,478,485,487,490,493,

26 CityofNewportNews,RouteE1 1520,1518,571,564,560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,

599,608,1481,592

492,490,493,1520,1518,571,564,560,559,555,1515,

27 CityofNewportNews,RouteE2

569,1512,590,1483,600,591,594,595

492,490,493,1520,1518,571,564,560,559,555,1515,

28 CityofNewportNews,RouteE3

569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592

521,1469,1470,527,528,554,553,551,1524,713,1474,

29 CityofNewportNews,RouteE4

592

30 CityofNewportNews,RouteE5 527,528,554,553,551,1524,713,1474,592

520,521,1469,1470,527,528,554,553,551,1524,713,

31 CityofNewportNews,RouteE6

1474,592

566,565,564,560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,1483,

32 CityofNewportNews,RouteF1

600,591,594,595

1519,1518,571,564,560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,

33 CityofNewportNews,RouteF2

599,608,1481,592

576,575,1458,574,573,572,1461,571,564,560,559,

34 CityofNewportNews,RouteF3

555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592

576,578,579,1462,582,580,563,555,1515,569,1512,

35 CityofNewportNews,RouteF4

590,599,608,1481,592

1462,582,580,563,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,

36 CityofNewportNews,RouteF5

1481,592

37 CityofNewportNews,RouteF6 563,570,1465,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592

38 CityofNewportNews,RouteF7 568,1465,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592

39 CityofNewportNews,RouteF8 589,586,591,594,595

40 CityofNewportNews,RouteF9 593,1484,595

41 CityofNewportNews,RouteF10 584,583,589,586,1477,590,599,608,1481,592

42 CityofNewportNews,RouteF11 581,583,589,586,1477,590,599,608,1481,592

43 CityofNewportNews,RouteF12 587,596,597,598,593,1484,595



SurryPowerStation 828 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Bus

Route

Number Description NodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary

50 RawlsByrdElementarySchool 1536,1534,263,262,1165,30,31,32,33,34,35

51 MatoakaElementarySchool 1169,1167,146,1155,147,149

GeneralStanfordElementary 479,478,485,487,490,493,1520,1518,571,564,560,

52

School 559,555,1515,569,1512,590,1483,600,591,594,595

53 BCCharlesElementarySchool 596,597,598,593,1484,595

54 HolyTabernacleChristianAcademy 560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,1481,592

55 ClaraByrdBakerElementarySchool 282,281,1176,262,1165,30,31,32,33,34,35

56 WarwickRiverChristianSchool 583,589,586,1477,590,599,608,1481,592

1461,571,564,560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,

57 EpesElementarySchool

608,1481,592

58 CollegeofWilliamandMary 1101,1100,264,260,174,262,1165,30,31,32,33,34,35

59 BrutonHighSchool(NKHS) 79,76,1212,77,78,8,7

60 JenkinsElementarySchool 1482,594,595

571,564,560,559,555,1515,569,1512,590,599,608,

61 DavidADutrowElementarySchool

1481,592

62 GeorgeJMcIntoshElementary 528,554,553,551

63 JamesRiverElementarySchool 427,413,1231,417,418,14,431,13,12,11,10,9,78,8,7

1552,1184,1183,266,267,268,270,145,1167,146,

64 JamestownHighSchool

1155,147,149

497,1457,499,1454,501,502,1452,506,22,23,24,

65 JMDozierMiddleSchool

1437,25,1436

442,447,441,448,454,451,510,1449,511,509,1453,

66 LeeHallElementarySchool

505,507,508,502,1452,506,22,23,24,1437,25,1436

248,250,1528,236,213,212,210,211,209,76,1212,77,

67 MagruderElementarySchool

78,8,7

248,250,1528,236,213,212,210,211,209,76,1212,77,

67 YorkCountyHeadStart(NKHS)

78,8,7

MatthewWhaleyElementary 189,1531,190,202,203,208,1091,1211,209,76,1212,

68

School 77,78,8,7

69 MenchvilleHighSchool 596,597,598,593,1484,595

173,172,1161,177,178,179,1136,1137,185,184,183,

70 BerkeleyMiddleSchool

1141,123,1142,1158,1159,1144,124,119

71 DJMontagueElementarySchool 130,131,132

1172,276,275,274,1160,152,161,162,165,167,166,

72 ProvidenceClassicalSchool

1163,31,32,33,34,35

WallerMillElementarySchool 196,195,194,191,1092,208,1091,1211,209,76,1212,

73

(NKHS) 77,78,8,7

196,195,194,191,1092,208,1091,1211,209,76,1212,

73 WilliamsburgHeadStart(NKHS)

77,78,8,7



SurryPowerStation 829 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Bus

Route

Number Description NodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary

246,241,243,239,244,210,211,209,76,1212,77,78,8,

74 QueensLakeMiddleSchool(NKHS)

7

379,1557,378,1236,377,434,436,18,17,16,414,15,

75 YorktownMiddleSchool(NKHS)

14,431,13,12,11,10,9,78,8,7

OliverCGreenwoodElementary 513,544,543,542,541,1444,380,1438,1439,1440,

76

School 1441,22,23,24,1437,25,1436

77 RichneckElementarySchool 527,528,554,553,551,1524,713,1474,592

1522,1520,1518,571,564,560,559,555,1515,569,

78 MaryPassageMiddleSchool

1512,590,1483,600,591,594,595

580,563,555,1515,569,1512,590,1483,600,591,594,

79 DenbighHighSchool

595

80 FirstBaptistChurchDenbigh 599,608,1481,592

81 SanfordElementarySchool 583,589,586,591,594,595

579,1462,582,580,563,555,1515,569,1512,590,1483,

82 RONelsonElementarySchool

600,591,594,595

539,513,544,543,542,541,1444,380,1438,1439,1440,

83 WoodsideHighSchool

1441,22,23,24,1437,25,1436

90 MadisonRetirementCenter 256,112,118

1106,1120,172,171,170,169,168,1164,167,166,1163,

91 ChambrelatWilliamsburg

31,32,33,34,35

HancockGeriatricTreatment 1106,1120,172,171,170,169,168,1164,167,166,1163,

91

Center 31,32,33,34,35

92 ConsulateHealthCare 263,262,1165,30,31,32,33,34,35

TheCovalescentatPatriotsColony 93 269,137,138,139,140

Williamsburg

94 MorningsideofWilliamsburg 331,342,353,432,345,344,13,12,11,10,9

95 ColonialManorSeniorCommunity 427,413,1231,417,418,14,431,13,12,11,10,9,78,8,7

96 WoodhavenHallAtWilliamsburg 263,262,1165,30,31,32,33,34,35

97 St.FrancisNursingCenter 551,1524,713,1474,592

98 EnvoyHealthCare 309,342,353,432,345,344,13,12,11,10,9,78,8,7

99 SpringArborofWilliamsburg 210,211,209,76,1212,77,78,8,7

100 WindsormeadeofWilliamsburg 1169,1167,146,1155,147,149

101 YorktownMiddleSchool(GC) 381,657,693,1504,699

308,1225,309,310,1234,410,430,433,438,436,434,

102 MagruderElementarySchool(GC) 377,1447,512,380,1444,541,542,543,544,513,535,

1386,381,657,693,1504,699

308,1225,309,310,1234,410,430,433,438,436,434,

103 YorkCountyHeadStart(GC) 377,1447,512,380,1444,541,542,543,544,513,535,

1386,381,657,693,1504,699



SurryPowerStation 830 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Bus

Route

Number Description NodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary

78,9,10,11,12,13,431,14,15,415,1232,1233,16,17,

104 BrutonHighSchool(GC)

18,437,440,19,20,21,1440

78,9,10,11,12,13,431,14,15,415,1232,1233,16,17,

105 WallerMillElementarySchool(GC)

18,437,440,19,20,21,1440

78,9,10,11,12,13,431,14,15,415,1232,1233,16,17,

106 WilliamsburgHeadStart(GC)

18,437,440,19,20,21,1440

308,1225,309,310,1234,410,430,433,438,436,434,

107 QueensLakeMiddleSchool(GC) 377,1447,512,380,1444,541,542,543,544,513,535,

1386,381,657,693,1504,699

 



SurryPowerStation 831 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table87.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather

Travel

Time

Travel Dist. from

Dist.To Timeto EPZ EPZ

Driver Loading EPZ Average EPZ Bdryto Bdryto ETEto

Mobilization Time Bdry Speed Bdry ETE R.S. R.S. R.S.

School City/County Time(min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) (mi.) (min) (hr:min)

ClaraByrdBakerElementarySchool JamesCity 180 15 6.0 5.6 64 4:20 27.4 36 4:55

DJMontagueElementarySchool JamesCity 180 15 0.2 2.1 4 3:20 22.9 31 3:50

JamestownHighSchool JamesCity 180 15 5.6 4.2 79 4:35 1.8 2 4:40

MatoakaElementarySchool JamesCity 180 15 3.1 2.5 75 4:30 3.4 5 4:35

ProvidenceClassicalSchool JamesCity 180 15 5.6 6.4 53 4:10 27.4 36 4:45

JamesRiverElementarySchool JamesCity 180 15 5.6 9.8 34 3:50 1.8 2 3:55

RawlsByrdElementarySchool JamesCity 180 15 5.3 6.1 52 4:10 9.6 13 4:20

GeneralStanfordElementarySchool NewportNews 145 15 5.3 9.6 33 3:15 4.5 6 3:20

BCCharlesElementarySchool NewportNews 145 15 1.5 12.6 7 2:50 7.5 10 3:00

FirstBaptistChurchDenbigh NewportNews 145 15 0.5 1.1 26 3:10 11.1 15 3:25

JenkinsElementarySchool NewportNews 145 15 0.8 33.0 1 2:45 7.4 10 2:55

MenchvilleHighSchool NewportNews 145 15 2.4 12.5 12 2:55 5.9 8 3:00

SanfordElementarySchool NewportNews 145 15 2.1 17.0 7 2:50 4.1 5 2:55

WarwickRiverChristianSchool NewportNews 145 15 2.3 4.1 34 3:15 11.1 15 3:30

DavidADutrowElementarySchool NewportNews 145 15 2.9 4.4 39 3:20 15.1 20 3:40

DavidADutrowElementarySchool NewportNews 145 15 2.9 4.4 39 3:20 15.1 20 3:40

DenbighHighSchool NewportNews 145 15 2.8 6.4 26 3:10 9.4 13 3:20

EpesElementarySchool NewportNews 145 15 2.7 4.0 41 3:25 2.9 4 3:25

GeorgeJMcIntoshElementary NewportNews 145 15 1.8 9.2 12 2:55 16.3 22 3:15

HolyTabernacleChristianAcademy NewportNews 145 15 1.9 3.2 37 3:20 10.9 15 3:35

JMDozierMiddleSchool NewportNews 145 15 5.5 23.4 14 2:55 14.2 19 3:15

LeeHallElementarySchool NewportNews 145 15 6.3 25.8 15 2:55 5.5 7 3:05

MaryPassageMiddleSchool NewportNews 145 15 4.1 7.2 34 3:15 7.4 10 3:25

OliverCGreenwoodElementarySchool NewportNews 145 15 5.8 8.0 43 3:25 3.5 5 3:30

RichneckElementarySchool NewportNews 145 15 4.6 11.4 24 3:05 3.7 5 3:10

RONelsonElementarySchool NewportNews 145 15 3.8 7.9 29 3:10 1.7 2 3:15



SurryPowerStation 832 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Travel

Time

Travel Dist. from

Dist.To Timeto EPZ EPZ

Driver Loading EPZ Average EPZ Bdryto Bdryto ETEto

Mobilization Time Bdry Speed Bdry ETE R.S. R.S. R.S.

School City/County Time(min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) (mi.) (min) (hr:min)

WoodsideHighSchool NewportNews 145 15 6.2 8.2 45 3:25 13.0 17 3:45

BerkeleyMiddleSchool Williamsburg 180 15 3.5 3.7 58 4:15 4.3 6 4:20

CollegeofWilliamandMary Williamsburg 180 15 6.0 6.3 58 4:15 27.4 37 4:50

MatthewWhaleyElementarySchool Williamsburg 180 15 3.8 6.4 35 3:50 26.9 36 4:30

YorktownMiddleSchool(NKHS) York 110 15 14.7 9.1 96 3:45 26.9 36 4:20

MagruderElementarySchool(NKHS) York 110 15 4.0 3.3 72 3:20 26.9 36 3:55

YorkCountyHeadStart(NKHS) York 110 15 4.0 3.3 72 3:20 26.9 36 3:55

BrutonHighSchool(NKHS) York 110 15 2.0 4.6 27 2:35 26.9 36 3:10

WallerMillElementarySchool(NKHS) York 110 15 4.4 4.4 59 3:05 27.0 36 3:40

WilliamsburgHeadStart(NKHS) York 110 15 4.4 4.4 59 3:05 27.0 36 3:40

QueensLakeMiddleSchool(NKHS) York 110 15 4.1 4.2 58 3:05 26.9 36 3:40

YorktownMiddleSchool(GC) York 110 15 2.4 4.7 31 2:40 2.7 4 2:40

MagruderElementarySchool(GC) York 110 15 12.1 10.6 69 3:15 3.8 5 3:20

YorkCountyHeadStart(GC) York 110 15 12.1 10.1 72 3:20 3.8 5 3:25

BrutonHighSchool(GC) York 110 15 14.8 10.2 87 3:35 3.9 5 3:40

WallerMillElementarySchool(GC) York 110 15 17.1 10.7 96 3:45 11.8 16 4:00

WilliamsburgHeadStart(GC) York 110 15 17.1 10.7 96 3:45 11.8 16 4:00

QueensLakeMiddleSchool(GC) York 110 15 13.3 9.2 87 3:35 3.9 5 3:40

MaximumforEPZ: 4:35 Maximum: 4:55

AverageforEPZ: 3:25 Average: 3:45

Note:AverageandMaxETEvaluesaregivenforthecaseofYorkschoolsgoingtotheNKHSreceivinglocation

 



SurryPowerStation 833 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table88.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain

Travel

Time

Travel Dist. from

Dist.To Timeto EPZ EPZ

Driver Loading EPZ Average EPZ Bdryto Bdryto ETEto

Mobilization Time Bdry Speed Bdry ETE R.S. R.S. R.S.

School City/County Time(min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) (mi.) (min) (hr:min)

ClaraByrdBakerElementarySchool JamesCity 190 20 6.0 6.0 60 4:30 27.4 41 5:15

DJMontagueElementarySchool JamesCity 190 20 0.2 10.6 1 3:35 22.9 34 4:05

JamestownHighSchool JamesCity 190 20 5.6 3.6 94 5:05 1.8 3 5:10

MatoakaElementarySchool JamesCity 190 20 3.1 2.0 95 5:05 3.4 5 5:10

ProvidenceClassicalSchool JamesCity 190 20 5.6 5.4 62 4:35 27.4 41 5:15

JamesRiverElementarySchool JamesCity 190 20 5.6 11.9 28 4:00 1.8 3 4:05

RawlsByrdElementarySchool JamesCity 190 20 5.3 5.5 58 4:30 9.6 14 4:45

GeneralStanfordElementarySchool NewportNews 155 20 5.3 7.4 43 3:40 4.5 7 3:45

BCCharlesElementarySchool NewportNews 155 20 1.5 12.4 7 3:05 7.5 11 3:15

FirstBaptistChurchDenbigh NewportNews 155 20 0.5 1.1 28 3:25 11.1 17 3:40

JenkinsElementarySchool NewportNews 155 20 0.8 31.2 2 3:00 7.4 11 3:10

MenchvilleHighSchool NewportNews 155 20 2.4 12.4 12 3:10 5.9 9 3:20

SanfordElementarySchool NewportNews 155 20 2.1 6.9 18 3:15 4.1 6 3:20

WarwickRiverChristianSchool NewportNews 155 20 2.3 2.2 62 4:00 11.1 17 4:15

DavidADutrowElementarySchool NewportNews 155 20 2.9 2.7 63 4:00 15.1 23 4:25

DavidADutrowElementarySchool NewportNews 155 20 2.9 2.7 63 4:00 15.1 23 4:25

DenbighHighSchool NewportNews 155 20 2.8 4.1 42 3:40 9.4 14 3:55

EpesElementarySchool NewportNews 155 20 2.7 2.6 61 4:00 2.9 4 4:00

GeorgeJMcIntoshElementary NewportNews 155 20 1.8 5.8 18 3:15 16.3 24 3:40

HolyTabernacleChristianAcademy NewportNews 155 20 1.9 2.1 56 3:55 10.9 16 4:10

JMDozierMiddleSchool NewportNews 155 20 5.5 17.1 19 3:15 14.2 21 3:35

LeeHallElementarySchool NewportNews 155 20 6.3 19.6 19 3:15 5.5 8 3:25

MaryPassageMiddleSchool NewportNews 155 20 4.1 5.8 43 3:40 7.4 11 3:50

OliverCGreenwoodElementarySchool NewportNews 155 20 5.8 40.0 9 3:05 3.5 5 3:10

RichneckElementarySchool NewportNews 155 20 4.6 6.2 44 3:40 3.7 6 3:45

RONelsonElementarySchool NewportNews 155 20 3.8 5.1 45 3:40 1.7 3 3:45



SurryPowerStation 834 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Travel

Time

Travel Dist. from

Dist.To Timeto EPZ EPZ

Driver Loading EPZ Average EPZ Bdryto Bdryto ETEto

Mobilization Time Bdry Speed Bdry ETE R.S. R.S. R.S.

School City/County Time(min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) (mi.) (min) (hr:min)

WoodsideHighSchool NewportNews 155 20 6.2 40.0 9 3:05 13.0 19 3:25

BerkeleyMiddleSchool Williamsburg 190 20 3.5 3.0 71 4:45 4.3 6 4:50

CollegeofWilliamandMary Williamsburg 190 20 6.0 5.9 61 4:35 27.4 41 5:15

MatthewWhaleyElementarySchool Williamsburg 190 20 3.8 5.4 42 4:15 26.9 40 4:55

YorktownMiddleSchool(NKHS) York 120 20 14.7 8.8 100 4:00 26.9 40 4:40

MagruderElementarySchool(NKHS) York 120 20 4.0 2.5 97 4:00 26.9 40 4:40

YorkCountyHeadStart(NKHS) York 120 20 4.0 2.5 97 4:00 26.9 40 4:40

BrutonHighSchool(NKHS) York 120 20 2.0 3.8 32 2:55 26.9 40 3:35

WallerMillElementarySchool(NKHS) York 120 20 4.4 3.2 81 3:45 27.0 40 4:25

WilliamsburgHeadStart(NKHS) York 120 20 4.4 3.2 81 3:45 27.0 40 4:25

QueensLakeMiddleSchool(NKHS) York 120 20 4.1 3.3 75 3:35 26.9 40 4:15

YorktownMiddleSchool(GC) York 120 20 2.4 3.5 42 3:05 2.7 4 3:10

MagruderElementarySchool(GC) York 120 20 12.1 7.0 104 4:05 3.8 6 4:10

YorkCountyHeadStart(GC) York 120 20 12.1 6.6 111 4:15 3.8 6 4:20

BrutonHighSchool(GC) York 120 20 14.8 10.1 88 3:50 3.9 6 3:55

WallerMillElementarySchool(GC) York 120 20 17.1 10.8 95 3:55 11.8 18 4:15

WilliamsburgHeadStart(GC) York 120 20 17.1 10.8 95 3:55 11.8 18 4:15

QueensLakeMiddleSchool(GC) York 120 20 13.3 5.7 141 4:45 3.9 6 4:50

MaximumforEPZ: 5:05 Maximum: 5:15

AverageforEPZ: 3:50 Average: 4:10

Note:AverageandMaxETEvaluesaregivenforthecaseofYorkschoolsgoingtotheNKHSreceivinglocation 



SurryPowerStation 835 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table89.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow

Travel

Time

Travel Dist. from

Dist.To Timeto EPZ EPZ

Driver Loading EPZ Average EPZ Bdryto Bdryto ETEto

Mobilization Time Bdry Speed Bdry ETE R.S. R.S. R.S.

School City/County Time(min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) (mi.) (min) (hr:min)

ClaraByrdBakerElementarySchool JamesCity 200 25 6.0 5.4 66 4:55 27.4 47 5:40

DJMontagueElementarySchool JamesCity 200 25 0.2 2.4 4 3:50 22.9 39 4:30

JamestownHighSchool JamesCity 200 25 5.6 3.1 106 5:35 1.8 3 5:35

MatoakaElementarySchool JamesCity 200 25 3.1 1.9 97 5:25 3.4 6 5:30

ProvidenceClassicalSchool JamesCity 200 25 5.6 5.9 57 4:45 27.4 47 5:30

JamesRiverElementarySchool JamesCity 200 25 5.6 8.1 41 4:30 1.8 3 4:30

RawlsByrdElementarySchool JamesCity 200 25 5.3 5.6 56 4:45 9.6 16 5:00

GeneralStanfordElementarySchool NewportNews 165 25 5.3 7.6 42 3:55 4.5 8 4:00

BCCharlesElementarySchool NewportNews 165 25 1.5 10.9 8 3:20 7.5 13 3:35

FirstBaptistChurchDenbigh NewportNews 165 25 0.5 1.0 29 3:40 11.1 19 4:00

JenkinsElementarySchool NewportNews 165 25 0.8 21.9 2 3:15 7.4 13 3:25

MenchvilleHighSchool NewportNews 165 25 2.4 10.9 14 3:25 5.9 10 3:35

SanfordElementarySchool NewportNews 165 25 2.1 7.2 17 3:30 4.1 7 3:35

WarwickRiverChristianSchool NewportNews 165 25 2.3 2.3 58 4:10 11.1 19 4:30

DavidADutrowElementarySchool NewportNews 165 25 2.9 2.6 65 4:15 15.1 26 4:45

DavidADutrowElementarySchool NewportNews 165 25 2.9 2.6 65 4:15 15.1 26 4:45

DenbighHighSchool NewportNews 165 25 2.8 4.4 39 3:50 9.4 16 4:05

EpesElementarySchool NewportNews 165 25 2.7 2.7 60 4:10 2.9 5 4:15

GeorgeJMcIntoshElementary NewportNews 165 25 1.8 5.7 18 3:30 16.3 28 4:00

HolyTabernacleChristianAcademy NewportNews 165 25 1.9 1.9 61 4:15 10.9 19 4:30

JMDozierMiddleSchool NewportNews 165 25 5.5 18.0 18 3:30 14.2 24 3:55

LeeHallElementarySchool NewportNews 165 25 6.3 20.1 19 3:30 5.5 9 3:40

MaryPassageMiddleSchool NewportNews 165 25 4.1 5.7 43 3:55 7.4 13 4:10

OliverCGreenwoodElementarySchool NewportNews 165 25 5.8 6.4 54 4:05 3.5 6 4:10

RichneckElementarySchool NewportNews 165 25 4.6 7.5 36 3:50 3.7 6 3:55

RONelsonElementarySchool NewportNews 165 25 3.8 6.2 37 3:50 1.7 3 3:50



SurryPowerStation 836 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Travel

Time

Travel Dist. from

Dist.To Timeto EPZ EPZ

Driver Loading EPZ Average EPZ Bdryto Bdryto ETEto

Mobilization Time Bdry Speed Bdry ETE R.S. R.S. R.S.

School City/County Time(min) (min) (mi) (mph) (min) (hr:min) (mi.) (min) (hr:min)

WoodsideHighSchool NewportNews 165 25 6.2 6.5 57 4:10 13.0 22 4:30

BerkeleyMiddleSchool Williamsburg 200 25 3.5 2.8 77 5:05 4.3 7 5:10

CollegeofWilliamandMary Williamsburg 200 25 6.0 5.9 62 4:50 27.4 47 5:35

MatthewWhaleyElementarySchool Williamsburg 200 25 3.8 5.4 42 4:30 26.9 46 5:15

YorktownMiddleSchool(NKHS) York 130 25 14.7 8.5 103 4:20 26.9 46 5:05

MagruderElementarySchool(NKHS) York 130 25 4.0 3.2 75 3:50 26.9 46 4:40

YorkCountyHeadStart(NKHS) York 130 25 4.0 3.2 75 3:50 26.9 46 4:40

BrutonHighSchool(NKHS) York 130 25 2.0 3.2 38 3:15 26.9 46 4:00

WallerMillElementarySchool(NKHS) York 130 25 4.4 4.7 56 3:35 27.0 46 4:20

WilliamsburgHeadStart(NKHS) York 130 25 4.4 4.7 56 3:35 27.0 46 4:20

QueensLakeMiddleSchool(NKHS) York 130 25 4.1 3.8 64 3:40 26.9 46 4:25

YorktownMiddleSchool(GC) York 130 25 2.4 6.0 24 3:00 2.7 5 3:05

MagruderElementarySchool(GC) York 130 25 12.1 8.7 84 4:00 3.8 7 4:10

YorkCountyHeadStart(GC) York 130 25 12.1 8.5 86 4:05 3.8 7 4:10

BrutonHighSchool(GC) York 130 25 14.8 9.2 96 4:15 3.9 7 4:20

WallerMillElementarySchool(GC) York 130 25 17.1 10.1 101 4:20 11.8 20 4:40

WilliamsburgHeadStart(GC) York 130 25 17.1 9.2 111 4:30 11.8 20 4:50

QueensLakeMiddleSchool(GC) York 130 25 13.3 7.8 102 4:20 3.9 7 4:25

MaximumforEPZ: 5:35 Maximum: 5:40

AverageforEPZ: 4:05 Average: 4:30

Note:AverageandMaxETEvaluesaregivenforthecaseofYorkschoolsgoingtotheNKHSreceivinglocation



SurryPowerStation 837 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table810.SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes

No.of Length

Route Buses RouteDescription (mi.)

1 1 IsleofWightCounty,Route1 9.1

2 1 IsleofWightCounty,Route2 9.6

3 1 IsleofWightCounty,Route3 17.9

4 1 IsleofWightCounty,Route4 12.3

5 1 SurryCounty,Route1 13.9

6 1 SurryCounty,Route2 24.2

7 1 SurryCounty,Route3 11.7

8 1 SurryCounty,Route4 14.4

9 1 SurryCounty,Route5 19.8

10 3 YorkCounty,Route1 15.4

11 3 YorkCounty,Route2 19.6

12 2 YorkCounty,Route3 10.5

13 2 YorkCounty,Route4 4.1

14 2 CityofWilliamsburg,Route1 4.4

15 2 CityofWilliamsburg,Route2 3.6

16 2 CityofWilliamsburg,Route3 4.2

17 2 CityofWilliamsburg,Route4 5.2

18 2 CityofWilliamsburg,Route5 6.2

19 7 JamesCityCounty,Route1 16.5

20 7 JamesCityCounty,Route2 16.1

21 7 JamesCityCounty,Route3 13.7

22 7 JamesCityCounty,Route4 9.5

23 7 JamesCityCounty,Route5 12.2

24 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteD1 11.2

25 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteD2 10.5

26 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteE1 9.6

27 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteE2 6.8

28 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteE3 5.7

29 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteE4 7.8

30 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteE5 7.0

31 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteE6 11.0

32 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteF1 8.8

33 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteF2 4.5

34 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteF3 7.1

35 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteF4 6.1

36 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteF5 7.5

37 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteF6 3.6



SurryPowerStation 838 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

No.of Length

Route Buses RouteDescription (mi.)

38 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteF7 8.5

39 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteF8 5.6

40 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteF9 3.4

41 3 CityofNewportNews,RouteF10 4.9

42 2 CityofNewportNews,RouteF11 5.4

43 2 CityofNewportNews,RouteF12 4.1

Total: 122  



SurryPowerStation 839 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Table811.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather

OneWave TwoWave

Route Travel Route

Route Travel Pickup Distance Timeto Driver Travel Pickup

Route Bus Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE toEAC EAC Unload Rest Time Time ETE

Number Number (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) (miles) (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min)

1 1 180 9.1 44.3 12 30 3:45 7.6 10 5 10 34 30 5:15

2 1 180 9.6 44.1 13 30 3:45 8.6 12 5 10 37 30 5:20

3 1 180 17.9 44.8 24 30 3:55 9.4 13 5 10 60 30 5:55

4 1 180 12.3 44.5 17 30 3:50 16.5 22 5 10 55 30 5:55

5 1 180 13.9 41.3 20 30 3:50 16.1 21 5 10 59 30 6:00

6 1 180 24.2 45.0 32 30 4:05 3.4 5 5 10 69 30 6:05

7 1 180 11.7 33.3 21 30 3:55 4.3 6 5 10 42 30 5:30

8 1 180 14.4 45.0 19 30 3:50 2.7 4 5 10 42 30 5:25

9 1 180 19.8 44.0 27 30 4:00 3.4 5 5 10 57 30 5:50

10 13 180 15.4 43.3 21 30 3:55 5.1 7 5 10 49 30 5:40

11 13 180 19.6 43.1 27 30 4:00 5.1 7 5 10 59 30 5:55

12 12 180 10.5 21.6 29 30 4:00 4.8 6 5 10 35 30 5:30

13 13 180 4.1 8.2 30 30 4:00 4.8 6 5 10 19 30 5:15

14 12 180 4.4 4.2 64 30 4:35 27.4 36 5 10 49 30 6:50

15 12 180 3.6 15.8 14 30 3:45 27.3 36 5 10 47 30 5:55

16 12 180 4.2 7.1 35 30 4:05 27.3 36 5 10 48 30 6:15

17 12 180 5.2 7.1 45 30 4:15 27.3 36 5 10 51 30 6:30

18 12 180 6.2 6.7 56 30 4:30 27.3 36 5 10 53 30 6:45

14 180 16.5 42.1 24 30 3:55 13.9 19 5 10 63 30 6:05

19

57 180 16.5 42.1 24 30 3:55 13.9 19 5 10 63 30 6:05

14 180 16.1 41.7 23 30 3:55 10.2 14 5 10 57 30 5:55

20

57 180 16.1 41.7 23 30 3:55 10.2 14 5 10 57 30 5:55



 



SurryPowerStation 840 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



OneWave TwoWave

Route Travel Route

Route Travel Pickup Distance Timeto Driver Travel Pickup

Route Bus Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE toEAC EAC Unload Rest Time Time ETE

Number Number (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) (miles) (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min)

14 180 13.7 43.5 19 30 3:50 13.9 19 5 10 55 30 5:50

21

57 180 13.7 43.5 19 30 3:50 13.9 19 5 10 55 30 5:50

14 180 9.5 36.4 16 30 3:50 13.9 19 5 10 44 30 5:40

22

57 180 9.5 36.4 16 30 3:50 13.9 19 5 10 44 30 5:40

14 180 12.2 39.7 18 30 3:50 13.9 19 5 10 53 30 5:50

23

57 180 12.2 39.7 18 30 3:50 13.9 19 5 10 53 30 5:50

24 13 180 11.2 43.3 15 30 3:45 10.4 14 5 10 44 30 5:30

25 13 180 10.5 44.6 14 30 3:45 10.4 14 5 10 42 30 5:30

26 13 180 9.6 14.8 39 30 4:10 11.1 15 5 10 40 30 5:50

27 13 180 6.8 16.3 25 30 3:55 12.0 16 5 10 35 30 5:35

28 13 180 5.7 11.1 31 30 4:05 11.1 15 5 10 30 30 5:35

29 13 180 7.8 22.6 21 30 3:55 13.5 18 5 10 40 30 5:40

30 13 180 7.0 20.9 20 30 3:50 11.9 16 5 10 37 30 5:30

31 13 180 11.0 24.0 28 30 4:00 12.6 17 5 10 48 30 5:50

32 13 180 8.8 18.6 28 30 4:00 12.3 16 5 10 40 30 5:45

33 13 180 4.5 10.0 27 30 4:00 11.1 15 5 10 28 30 5:30

34 13 180 7.1 11.4 38 30 4:10 11.1 15 5 10 35 30 5:45

35 13 180 6.1 11.4 32 30 4:05 11.1 15 5 10 32 30 5:40

36 13 180 7.5 12.4 36 30 4:10 11.1 15 5 10 36 30 5:50

37 13 180 3.6 7.3 30 30 4:00 9.9 13 5 10 23 30 5:25

38 13 180 8.5 12.4 41 30 4:15 11.1 15 5 10 38 30 5:55

39 13 180 5.6 20.4 17 30 3:50 9.9 13 5 10 32 30 5:25

40 13 180 3.4 25.8 8 30 3:40 10.6 14 5 10 25 30 5:05

41 13 180 4.9 10.8 27 30 4:00 11.1 15 5 10 30 30 5:30

42 12 180 5.4 11.4 28 30 4:00 11.1 15 5 10 31 30 5:35

43 12 180 4.1 19.2 13 30 3:45 9.8 13 5 10 26 30 5:10

MaximumETE: 4:35 MaximumETE: 6:50

AverageETE: 4:00 AverageETE: 5:45



 



SurryPowerStation 841 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Table812.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain

OneWave TwoWave

Route Travel Route

Route Travel Pickup Distance Timeto Driver Travel Pickup

Route Bus Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE toEAC EAC Unload Rest Time Time ETE

Number Number (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) (miles) (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min)

1 1 190 9.1 40.0 14 40 4:05 7.6 11 5 10 37 40 5:50

2 1 190 9.6 40.0 14 40 4:05 8.6 13 5 10 40 40 5:55

3 1 190 17.9 40.0 27 40 4:20 9.4 14 5 10 65 40 6:35

4 1 190 12.3 40.0 18 40 4:10 16.5 25 5 10 60 40 6:30

5 1 190 13.9 37.8 22 40 4:15 16.1 24 5 10 64 40 6:40

6 1 190 24.2 40.0 36 40 4:30 3.4 5 5 10 74 40 6:45

7 1 190 11.7 30.8 23 40 4:15 4.3 6 5 10 44 40 6:05

8 1 190 14.4 40.0 22 40 4:15 2.7 4 5 10 45 40 6:00

9 1 190 19.8 40.0 30 40 4:20 3.4 5 5 10 61 40 6:25

10 13 190 15.4 20.9 44 40 4:35 5.1 8 5 10 51 40 6:30

11 13 190 19.6 21.2 56 40 4:50 5.1 8 5 10 63 40 7:00

12 12 190 10.5 13.2 48 40 4:40 4.8 7 5 10 37 40 6:20

13 13 190 4.1 5.0 49 40 4:40 4.8 7 5 10 20 40 6:05

14 12 190 4.4 3.1 85 40 5:15 27.4 41 5 10 54 40 7:50

15 12 190 3.6 8.8 25 40 4:15 27.3 41 5 10 52 40 6:45

16 12 190 4.2 4.5 55 40 4:45 27.3 41 5 10 54 40 7:15

17 12 190 5.2 5.4 58 40 4:50 27.3 41 5 10 57 40 7:25

18 12 190 6.2 5.4 70 40 5:00 27.3 41 5 10 59 40 7:35

14 190 16.5 38.8 26 40 4:20 13.9 21 5 10 68 40 6:45

19

57 190 16.5 38.8 26 40 4:20 13.9 21 5 10 68 40 6:45

14 190 16.1 35.7 27 40 4:20 10.2 15 5 10 61 40 6:35

20

57 190 16.1 35.7 27 40 4:20 10.2 15 5 10 61 40 6:35

 



SurryPowerStation 842 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



OneWave TwoWave

Route Travel Route

Route Travel Pickup Distance Timeto Driver Travel Pickup

Route Bus Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE toEAC EAC Unload Rest Time Time ETE

Number Number (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) (miles) (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min)

14 190 13.7 40.0 21 40 4:15 13.9 21 5 10 60 40 6:35

21

57 190 13.7 40.0 21 40 4:15 13.9 21 5 10 60 40 6:35

14 190 9.5 34.3 17 40 4:10 13.9 21 5 10 48 40 6:15

22

57 190 9.5 34.3 17 40 4:10 13.9 21 5 10 48 40 6:15

14 190 12.2 35.9 20 40 4:10 13.9 21 5 10 57 40 6:25

23

57 190 12.2 35.9 20 40 4:10 13.9 21 5 10 57 40 6:25

24 13 190 11.2 29.2 23 40 4:15 10.4 16 5 10 47 40 6:15

25 13 190 10.5 39.1 16 40 4:10 10.4 16 5 10 45 40 6:10

26 13 190 9.6 9.2 63 40 4:55 11.1 17 5 10 44 40 6:55

27 13 190 6.8 9.1 45 40 4:35 12.0 18 5 10 37 40 6:30

28 13 190 5.7 6.2 56 40 4:50 11.1 17 5 10 33 40 6:35

29 13 190 7.8 11.0 43 40 4:35 13.5 20 5 10 43 40 6:35

30 13 190 7.0 9.5 44 40 4:35 11.9 18 5 10 38 40 6:30

31 13 190 11.0 12.9 51 40 4:45 12.6 19 5 10 52 40 6:55

32 13 190 8.8 10.7 50 40 4:40 12.3 18 5 10 44 40 6:40

33 13 190 4.5 4.2 64 40 4:55 11.1 17 5 10 29 40 6:40

34 13 190 7.1 6.5 66 40 5:00 11.1 17 5 10 38 40 6:50

35 13 190 6.1 6.4 57 40 4:50 11.1 17 5 10 35 40 6:40

36 13 190 7.5 7.3 62 40 4:55 11.1 17 5 10 39 40 6:50

37 13 190 3.6 4.2 52 40 4:45 9.9 15 5 10 25 40 6:20

38 13 190 8.5 7.6 66 40 5:00 11.1 17 5 10 41 40 6:55

39 13 190 5.6 14.4 24 40 4:15 9.9 15 5 10 32 40 6:00

40 13 190 3.4 24.2 8 40 4:00 10.6 16 5 10 27 40 5:40

41 13 190 4.9 4.7 63 40 4:55 11.1 17 5 10 32 40 6:40

42 12 190 5.4 6.3 52 40 4:45 11.1 17 5 10 33 40 6:30

43 12 190 4.1 11.8 21 40 4:15 9.8 15 5 10 29 40 5:55

MaximumETE: 5:15 MaximumETE: 7:50

AverageETE: 4:30 AverageETE: 6:35



 



SurryPowerStation 843 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesSnow

OneWave TwoWave

Route Travel Route

Route Travel Pickup Distance Timeto Driver Travel Pickup

Route Bus Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE toEAC EAC Unload Rest Time Time ETE

Number Number (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) (miles) (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min)

1 1 200 9.1 35.0 16 50 4:30 7.6 13 5 10 41 50 6:30

2 1 200 9.6 35.0 16 50 4:30 8.6 15 5 10 44 50 6:35

3 1 200 17.9 35.0 31 50 4:45 9.4 16 5 10 71 50 7:20

4 1 200 12.3 35.0 21 50 4:35 16.5 28 5 10 66 50 7:15

5 1 200 13.9 34.4 24 50 4:35 16.1 28 5 10 70 50 7:20

6 1 200 24.2 35.0 41 50 4:55 3.4 6 5 10 80 50 7:30

7 1 200 11.7 27.5 26 50 4:40 4.3 7 5 10 48 50 6:45

8 1 200 14.4 35.0 25 50 4:35 2.7 5 5 10 48 50 6:35

9 1 200 19.8 35.0 34 50 4:45 3.4 6 5 10 66 50 7:05

10 13 200 15.4 34.9 26 50 4:40 5.1 9 5 10 56 50 6:50

11 13 200 19.6 34.8 34 50 4:45 5.1 9 5 10 68 50 7:10

12 12 200 10.5 20.4 31 50 4:45 4.8 8 5 10 40 50 6:40

13 13 200 4.1 8.2 30 50 4:40 4.8 8 5 10 22 50 6:20

14 12 200 4.4 3.3 82 50 5:35 27.4 47 5 10 61 50 8:30

15 12 200 3.6 10.1 22 50 4:35 27.3 47 5 10 60 50 7:30

16 12 200 4.2 5.2 48 50 5:00 27.3 47 5 10 60 50 7:55

17 12 200 5.2 5.3 60 50 5:10 27.3 47 5 10 64 50 8:10

18 12 200 6.2 5.2 72 50 5:25 27.3 47 5 10 66 50 8:25

14 200 16.5 34.9 28 50 4:40 13.9 24 5 10 74 50 7:25

19

57 200 16.5 34.9 28 50 4:40 13.9 24 5 10 74 50 7:25

14 200 16.1 32.8 29 50 4:40 10.2 18 5 10 67 50 7:10

20

57 200 16.1 32.8 29 50 4:40 10.2 18 5 10 67 50 7:10



 



SurryPowerStation 844 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



OneWave TwoWave

Route Travel Route

Route Travel Pickup Distance Timeto Driver Travel Pickup

Route Bus Mobilization Length Speed Time Time ETE toEAC EAC Unload Rest Time Time ETE

Number Number (min) (miles) (mph) (min) (min) (hr:min) (miles) (min) (min) (min) (min) (min) (hr:min)

14 200 13.7 35.0 24 50 4:35 13.9 24 5 10 66 50 7:10

21

57 200 13.7 35.0 24 50 4:35 13.9 24 5 10 66 50 7:10

14 200 9.5 31.9 18 50 4:30 13.9 24 5 10 53 50 6:55

22

57 200 9.5 31.9 18 50 4:30 13.9 24 5 10 53 50 6:55

14 200 12.2 31.5 23 50 4:35 13.9 24 5 10 63 50 7:10

23

57 200 12.2 31.5 23 50 4:35 13.9 24 5 10 63 50 7:10

24 13 200 11.2 24.6 27 50 4:40 10.4 18 5 10 52 50 6:55

25 13 200 10.5 35.0 18 50 4:30 10.4 18 5 10 50 50 6:45

26 13 200 9.6 8.1 71 50 5:25 11.1 19 5 10 53 50 7:45

27 13 200 6.8 9.5 43 50 4:55 12.0 21 5 10 45 50 7:10

28 13 200 5.7 5.0 69 50 5:20 11.1 19 5 10 40 50 7:25

29 13 200 7.8 11.0 43 50 4:55 13.5 23 5 10 52 50 7:20

30 13 200 7.0 9.5 44 50 4:55 11.9 20 5 10 46 50 7:10

31 13 200 11.0 13.1 50 50 5:00 12.6 22 5 10 62 50 7:30

32 13 200 8.8 10.1 52 50 5:05 12.3 21 5 10 52 50 7:25

33 13 200 4.5 4.2 64 50 5:15 11.1 19 5 10 35 50 7:15

34 13 200 7.1 6.0 72 50 5:25 11.1 19 5 10 45 50 7:35

35 13 200 6.1 5.2 71 50 5:25 11.1 19 5 10 41 50 7:35

36 13 200 7.5 6.3 71 50 5:25 11.1 19 5 10 46 50 7:40

37 13 200 3.6 2.9 74 50 5:25 9.9 17 5 10 29 50 7:20

38 13 200 8.5 5.9 87 50 5:40 11.1 19 5 10 47 50 7:55

39 13 200 5.6 11.6 29 50 4:40 9.9 17 5 10 38 50 6:40

40 13 200 3.4 23.3 9 50 4:20 10.6 18 5 10 31 50 6:15

41 13 200 4.9 4.5 66 50 5:20 11.1 19 5 10 36 50 7:25

42 12 200 5.4 4.7 68 50 5:20 11.1 19 5 10 38 50 7:25

43 12 200 4.1 11.0 22 50 4:35 9.8 17 5 10 32 50 6:30

MaximumETE: 5:40 MaximumETE: 8:30

AverageETE: 4:55 AverageETE: 7:15



SurryPowerStation 845 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table814.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather

Loading Dist. Travel

Rate Total To Timeto

(min Loading EPZ EPZ

Mobilization per Time Bdry Boundary ETE

MedicalFacility Patient (min) person) People (min) (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Ambulatory 180 1 46 30 4.5 49 4:20

ChambrelatWilliamsburg Wheelchairbound 180 5 3 15 4.5 52 4:10

Bedridden 180 15 1 15 4.5 52 4:10

Ambulatory 180 1 215 30 4.5 49 4:20

HancockGeriatricTreatmentCenter Wheelchairbound 180 5 20 100 4.5 9 4:50

Bedridden 180 15 30 30 4.5 49 4:20

ConsulateHealthCare Wheelchairbound 180 5 43 100 7.2 12 4:55

Bedridden 180 15 44 30 7.2 55 4:25

TheCovalescentatPatriotsColony Ambulatory 180 1 13 13 4.1 15 3:30

Williamsburg Wheelchairbound 180 5 45 100 4.1 10 4:50

Ambulatory 180 1 64 30 6.8 9 3:40

MorningsideofWilliamsburg Wheelchairbound 180 5 15 75 6.8 9 4:25

Bedridden 180 15 1 15 6.8 9 3:25

Ambulatory 180 1 29 29 8.0 28 4:00

ColonialManorSeniorCommunity

Wheelchairbound 180 5 25 100 8.0 11 4:55

Ambulatory 180 1 5 5 5.2 53 4:00

WoodhavenHallAtWilliamsburg Wheelchairbound 180 5 3 15 5.2 54 4:10

Bedridden 180 15 1 15 5.2 54 4:10

Ambulatory 180 1 57 30 0.6 2 3:35

St.FrancisNursingCenter Wheelchairbound 180 5 37 100 0.6 1 4:45

Bedridden 180 15 11 30 0.6 2 3:35

Wheelchairbound 180 5 130 100 6.4 9 4:50

EnvoyHealthCare

Bedridden 180 15 20 30 6.4 24 3:55

Ambulatory 180 1 65 30 0.8 25 3:55

MadisonRetirementCenter

Wheelchairbound 180 5 10 50 0.8 24 4:15

Ambulatory 180 1 46 30 2.5 22 3:55

SpringArborofWilliamsburg

Wheelchairbound 180 5 4 20 2.5 27 3:50

Ambulatory 180 1 3 3 3.0 73 4:20

WindsormeadeofWilliamsburg

Wheelchairbound 180 5 9 45 3.0 49 4:35

MaximumETE: 4:55

AverageETE: 4:15



SurryPowerStation 846 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table815.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-Rain

Loading Dist. Travel

Rate Total To Timeto

(min Loading EPZ EPZ

Mobilization per Time Bdry Boundary ETE

MedicalFacility Patient (min) person) People (min) (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Ambulatory 190 1 46 30 4.5 51 4:35

ChambrelatWilliamsburg Wheelchairbound 190 5 3 15 4.5 60 4:25

Bedridden 190 15 1 15 4.5 60 4:25

Ambulatory 190 1 215 30 4.5 51 4:35

HancockGeriatricTreatmentCenter Wheelchairbound 190 5 20 100 4.5 12 5:05

Bedridden 190 15 30 30 4.5 51 4:35

Wheelchairbound 190 5 43 100 7.2 19 5:10

ConsulateHealthCare

Bedridden 190 15 44 30 7.2 61 4:45

TheCovalescentatPatriotsColony Ambulatory 190 1 13 13 4.1 24 3:50

Williamsburg Wheelchairbound 190 5 45 100 4.1 10 5:00

Ambulatory 190 1 64 30 6.8 13 3:55

MorningsideofWilliamsburg Wheelchairbound 190 5 15 75 6.8 10 4:35

Bedridden 190 15 1 15 6.8 24 3:50

Ambulatory 190 1 29 29 8.0 32 4:15

ColonialManorSeniorCommunity

Wheelchairbound 190 5 25 100 8.0 12 5:05

Ambulatory 190 1 5 5 5.2 74 4:30

WoodhavenHallAtWilliamsburg Wheelchairbound 190 5 3 15 5.2 61 4:30

Bedridden 190 15 1 15 5.2 61 4:30

Ambulatory 190 1 57 30 0.6 8 3:50

St.FrancisNursingCenter Wheelchairbound 190 5 37 100 0.6 1 4:55

Bedridden 190 15 11 30 0.6 8 3:50

Wheelchairbound 190 5 130 100 6.4 10 5:00

EnvoyHealthCare

Bedridden 190 15 20 30 6.4 28 4:10

Ambulatory 190 1 65 30 0.8 23 4:05

MadisonRetirementCenter

Wheelchairbound 190 5 10 50 0.8 14 4:15

Ambulatory 190 1 46 30 2.5 36 4:20

SpringArborofWilliamsburg

Wheelchairbound 190 5 4 20 2.5 41 4:15

Ambulatory 190 1 3 3 3.0 93 4:50

WindsormeadeofWilliamsburg

Wheelchairbound 190 5 9 45 3.0 72 5:10

MaximumETE: 5:10

AverageETE: 4:30



SurryPowerStation 847 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Table816.MedicalFacilityEvacuationTimeEstimates-Snow

Loading Total Dist.To TravelTime

Rate Loading EPZ toEPZ

Mobilization (minper Time Bdry Boundary ETE

MedicalFacility Patient (min) person) People (min) (mi) (min) (hr:min)

Ambulatory 200 1 46 30 4.5 59 4:50

ChambrelatWilliamsburg Wheelchairbound 200 5 3 15 4.5 62 4:40

Bedridden 200 15 1 15 4.5 62 4:40

Ambulatory 200 1 215 30 4.5 59 4:50

HancockGeriatricTreatmentCenter Wheelchairbound 200 5 20 100 4.5 22 5:25

Bedridden 200 15 30 30 4.5 59 4:50

Wheelchairbound 200 5 43 100 7.2 27 5:30

ConsulateHealthCare

Bedridden 200 15 44 30 7.2 70 5:00

TheCovalescentatPatriotsColony Ambulatory 200 1 13 13 4.1 29 4:05

Williamsburg Wheelchairbound 200 5 45 100 4.1 16 5:20

Ambulatory 200 1 64 30 6.8 12 4:05

MorningsideofWilliamsburg Wheelchairbound 200 5 15 75 6.8 12 4:50

Bedridden 200 15 1 15 6.8 15 3:50

Ambulatory 200 1 29 29 8.0 39 4:30

ColonialManorSeniorCommunity

Wheelchairbound 200 5 25 100 8.0 14 5:15

Ambulatory 200 1 5 5 5.2 76 4:45

WoodhavenHallAtWilliamsburg Wheelchairbound 200 5 3 15 5.2 62 4:40

Bedridden 200 15 1 15 5.2 62 4:40

Ambulatory 200 1 57 30 0.6 6 4:00

St.FrancisNursingCenter Wheelchairbound 200 5 37 100 0.6 2 5:05

Bedridden 200 15 11 30 0.6 6 4:00

Wheelchairbound 200 5 130 100 6.4 11 5:15

EnvoyHealthCare

Bedridden 200 15 20 30 6.4 41 4:35

Ambulatory 200 1 65 30 0.8 23 4:15

MadisonRetirementCenter

Wheelchairbound 200 5 10 50 0.8 17 4:30

Ambulatory 200 1 46 30 2.5 35 4:25

SpringArborofWilliamsburg

Wheelchairbound 200 5 4 20 2.5 45 4:25

Ambulatory 200 1 3 3 3.0 97 5:00

WindsormeadeofWilliamsburg

Wheelchairbound 200 5 9 45 3.0 92 5:40

MaximumETE: 5:40

AverageETE: 4:45



SurryPowerStation 848 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Table817.HomeboundSpecialNeedsPopulationEvacuationTimeEstimates

Total Travel

Mobiliza Loading Loading Timeto

People tion Timeat Travelto Timeat EPZ

Requiring Vehicles Weather Time 1stStop Subsequent Subsequent Boundary ETE

VehicleType Vehicle deployed Stops Conditions (min) (min) Stops(min) Stops(min) (min) (hr:min)

Good 180 72 24 5:25

Buses 253 30 9 Rain 190 5 80 40 28 5:45

Snow 200 88 28 6:05

Good 180 54 24 4:55

Wheelchair

95 15 7 Rain 190 5 60 30 28 5:15

Buses

Snow 200 66 28 5:30

MaximumETE: 6:05

AverageETE: 5:30





SurryPowerStation 849 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

9 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY

Thissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesigned

to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic.  The resources required to implement this

strategyinclude:

• Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic

guides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers).

• TrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.These

devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control

Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the

U.S.D.O.T. All state and most city/county transportation agencies have access to the

MUTCD,whichisavailableonline:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccessto

theofficialPDFversion.

• A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a

formatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrol.

AllcountiesandcitiesintheSPSEPZhavedetailedevacuationtrafficcontrolplans.AttheAlert

law enforcement personnel would be placed on standby and an assessment made, at the

city/county level, as to whether to request assistance from the State Police.  In addition the

departmentofPublicWorkswouldbecontactedtodistributetrafficbarriers.TCPsandACPs

willnotbeactivatedunlessanevacuationisordered.IsleofWightandSurryCountiesandthe

CityofNewportNewshaveresponseplansthatdetailwhichTCPstoactivate,dependingonthe

extentoftheevacuation.AtleastoneofficerwillbeassignedtoeachTCP.

Thefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:

1. FacilitateevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ.

2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakes

themsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflow

ofotherevacuees.

Theterms"facilitate"and"discourage"areemployedratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"to

indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function.  There are always

legitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forexample:

• Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamily

memberspriortoevacuating.

• Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees.

• Thedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivity.

The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound

judgmentbythetrafficguide.

 



SurryPowerStation 91 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:

1. TheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergency

plansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR7002.

2. Computeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironment.

This analysis identifies the best routing and those critical intersections that

experience pronounced congestion. The existing TCPs and ACPs, and how they

wereappliedinthisstudy,arediscussedinAppendixG.

3. PrioritizationofTCPsandACPs.

ApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandACPswillhaveamore

pronounced influence on expediting traffic movements than at other TCPs and

ACPs. These priorities should be assigned by state/county emergency

managementrepresentativesandbylawenforcementpersonnel.

The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies (if available) can reduce

manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic

Message Signs (DMS) can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers

regardingtrafficconditions,routeselection,andevacuationassemblycenterinformation.DMS

canalsobeplacedoutsideoftheEPZtowarnmotoriststoavoidusingroutesthatmayconflict

withtheflowofevacueesawayfromthepowerplant.HighwayAdvisoryRadio(HAR)canbe

used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems.

Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with

information.Internetwebsitescanprovidetrafficandevacuationrouteinformationbeforethe

evacuee begins their trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and

pagerscanbeusedtoprovideinformationenroute.AsdiscussedinSection7andshownin

Figures 73 through 78, north of the James River, congestion is sustained longer for people

evacuating to the north than to the east.  Disseminating such information in the event of an

evacuationcouldhelppeopleinthecentralPAZs,particularly18Cand19B,choosethequickest

routeoutoftheEPZ.

These are only severalexamples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process.

Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation

process,andanyadditionalsignageplacedshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.

TheETEanalysistreatedallcontrolledintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsite

agencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.

Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be

reviewedduringemergencyresponsetraining.

TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatallexternalexternaltripsareinterdictedand

divertedafter2hourshaveelapsedfromtheATE.

All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are

assumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningACPsandTCPs.

Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and

operations.



SurryPowerStation 92 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

10 EVACUATIONROUTES

Evacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:

• Routing from a PAZ being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and

thenceoutoftheEPZ.

• RoutingoftransitdependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoassemblycenters.

EvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsuchawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.

This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the

plant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoas

to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.

SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.

TheroutingoftransitdependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoassemblycentersorhost

facilitiesisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswhere

theseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.

Figure 101 presents a map showing the general population Evacuation Assembly Centers

(EACs) and receiving schools for evacuees. The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are

presentedinFigure102.

It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate receiving school and

subsequentlypickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transitdependentevacueesaretransported

to the nearest primary care center for each city/county. This study does not consider the

transport of evacuees from assembly centers to congregate care centers, if the counties do

makethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.





SurryPowerStation 101 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

t 

Figure101.GeneralPopulationEvacuationAssemblyCentersandReceivingSchools 



SurryPowerStation 102 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Figure102.EvacuationRouteMap



SurryPowerStation 103 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



11 SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONS

Thereisaneedforsurveillanceoftrafficoperationsduringtheevacuation.Thereisalsoaneed

toclearanyblockageofroadwaysarisingfromaccidentsorvehicledisablement.Surveillance

cantakeseveralforms.

1. Traffic control personnel, located at TrafficControl and Access Controlpoints, provide

fixedpointsurveillance.

2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along welldefined paths to ensure coverage of

thosehighwaysthatserveasmajorevacuationroutes.

3. Aerialsurveillanceofevacuationoperationsmayalsobeconductedusinghelicopteror

fixedwingaircraft,ifavailable.

4. Cellularphonecalls(ifcellularcoverageexists)frommotoristsmayalsoprovidedirect

fieldreportsofroadblockages.

5. Bus drivers are instructed to provide feedback to the Transportation Supervisor about

anytrafficaccidentsorbreakdownsalongtheirevacuationroutes.

TheseconcurrentsurveillanceproceduresaredesignedtoprovidecoverageoftheentireEPZas

wellastheareaarounditsperiphery.Itistheresponsibilityofthecities/countiestosupportan

emergencyresponsesystemthatcanreceivemessagesfromthefieldandbeinapositionto

respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify,

andexpeditetheresponsetoanyblockagecausedbyadisabledvehicle.

TowVehicles

Inalowspeedtrafficenvironment,anyvehicledisablementislikelytoariseduetoalowspeed

collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled

vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in

other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities

suchaspushingadisabledvehicletothesideoftheroadwithoutprompting.

While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described

above,itisstillprudenttobepreparedforsuchaneed.Considerationshouldbegiventhattow

truckswithasupplyofgasolinebedeployedatstrategiclocationswithin,orjustoutside,the

EPZ.Theselocationsshouldbeselectedsothat:

x Theypermitaccesstokey,heavilyloaded,evacuationroutes.

x Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counterflow relative to evacuating

traffic.

Considerationshouldalsobegiventhatthestateandlocalemergencymanagementagencies

encouragegasstationstoremainopenduringtheevacuation.







SurryPowerStation 111 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

12 CONFIRMATIONTIME

Itisnecessarytoconfirmthattheevacuationprocessiseffectiveinthesensethatthepublicis

awareofandiscomplyingwiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.ThereareareaswithintheSPSEPZ

notcoveredbythesirens,fortheseareasroutealertingprocedureswillbeactivated.Should

procedures not already exist to confirm an effective evacuation, the following alternative or

complementaryapproachissuggested.

Thesuggestedprocedureemploysastratifiedrandomsampleandatelephonesurvey.Thesize

ofthesampleisdependentontheexpectednumberofhouseholdsthatdonotcomplywiththe

AdvisorytoEvacuate.Itisreasonabletoassumeforthepurposeofestimatingsamplesizethat

atleast80percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZwillcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.

On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 121) to yield an estimated sample

sizeofapproximately300.

Theconfirmationprocessshouldstartatabout3hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,whichis

when approximately 90 percent of resident evacuees have completed their mobilization

activities (see Table 59). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their

respectivetripsandthelocaltelephonesystemwillbelargelyfreeoftraffic.

As indicated in Table 121, approximately 71/2 person hours are needed to complete the

telephone survey.  If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of

telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of PAZs), then the

confirmationprocesswillextendoveratimeframeofabout75minutes.Thus,theconfirmation

shouldbecompletedbeforetheevacuatedareaiscleared.Ofcourse,fewerpeoplewouldbe

neededforthissurveyiftheEvacuationRegionwereonlyaportionoftheEPZ.Useofmodern

automatedcomputercontrolleddialingequipmentorothertechnologies(e.g.,reverse911or

equivalent if available) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time

requiredtoundertakethistypeofconfirmationsurvey.

Ifthismethodisindeedusedbytheoffsiteagencies,considerationshouldbegiventomaintain

a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times. Such a list could be

purchased from vendors and could be periodically updated. As indicated above, the

confirmationprocessshouldnotbeginuntil3hoursaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,toensure

that households have had enough time to mobilize. This 3hour timeframe will enable

telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the

necessaryphonecalls.

Shouldthenumberoftelephoneresponses(i.e.,peoplestillathome)exceed20percent,then

thetelephonesurveyshouldberepeatedafteranhour'sintervaluntiltheconfirmationprocess

iscompleted.

Other techniques could also be considered.  After traffic volumes decline, the personnel

manningTCPscanberedeployedtotravelthroughresidentialareastoobserveandtoconfirm

evacuationactivities. 



SurryPowerStation 121 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Table121.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation

ProblemDefinition

Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that

havenotevacuated.

Reference:

 Burstein,H.,AttributeSampling,McGrawHill,1971

Given:

x No.ofhouseholdsplusotherfacilities,N,withintheEPZ(est.)=61,900

x Est.proportion,F,ofhouseholdsthatwillnotevacuate=0.20

x Allowableerrormargin,e:0.05

x Confidencelevel,:0.95(impliesA=1.96)



ApplyingTable10ofcitedreference,

 



Finitepopulationcorrection:





Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of thepopulation

hasnotevacuated.Ifonly10percentofthepopulationdoesnotcomplywiththeAdvisoryto

Evacuate,thentherequiredsamplesize,nF=215.



Est.PersonHourstocomplete300telephonecalls

Assume: 

x Timetodialusingtouchtone(randomselectionoflistednumbers):30seconds

x Timefor6rings(noanswer):36seconds

x Timefor4ringsplusshortconversation:60sec.

x Intervalbetweencalls:20sec.



PersonHours:





SurryPowerStation 122 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

13 RECOMMENDATIONS

Thefollowingrecommendationsareoffered:

1. Examination of the general population ETE in Section 7 shows that the ETE for 100

percentofthepopulationisgenerally11/2to4hourslongerthanfor90percentofthe

population. Specifically, the additional time needed for the last 10 percent of the

populationtoevacuatecanbeasmuchasfourtimesthetimeneededtoevacuate90

percent of the population. There are two contributing factors that lead to this non linearity:

a. Relativelyfewstragglersrequiresignificantlymoretimetomobilize(i.e.prepare

for the evacuation trip) than their neighbors. This leads to two

recommendations:

i. The public outreach (information) program should emphasize the need

forevacueestominimizethetimeneededtopreparetoevacuate(secure

thehome,assembleneededclothes,medicines,etc.).

ii. The decision makers should reference Table 71 which list the time

needed to evacuate 90 percent of the population, when preparing

recommendedprotectiveactions,asperNUREG/CR7002guidance.

b. ThereisintenseandprolongedcongestionontheroadwaysexitingtheEPZnorth

of Williamsburg.  The eastern and southeastern portions of the EPZ, although

more heavily populated, benefit from a larger number of higher capacity

roadways than are available to the north in the Williamsburg area.  Therefore,

populationsintheeastandnorthnortheastshouldbeencouragedtoevacuate

towardsthesoutheastinordertominimizetheirETEandhelprelievecongestion

intheWilliamsburgarea.

2. Stagedevacuationisnotbeneficialduetothelowpopulationwithinthe2mileregionof

theplantandthelimitedtrafficcongestionwithinthisregion.

3. ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable71,aswellastheresultsdisplayedinTable

M5, indicate that a closure of any number of lanes on I64 WB impacts the 90th

percentileETEforthefullEPZwithincreasesof55minutesforasinglelaneclosureand

1:10 for a full closure. If any closure should occur, the use of the shoulder as a slow

movinglaneshouldbeconsidered.

4. Countiesshouldimplementprocedureswherebyschoolsarecontactedpriortodispatch

ofbusesfromthedepotstogetanaccuratecountofstudentsneedingtransportation

andthenumberofbusesrequired(SeeSection8).

5. Table 85 indicates that there are enough buses and wheelchair buses available to

evacuate the transitdependent population within the EPZ in a single wave; however,

there are not enough ambulances to evacuate the bedridden population in a single

wave. The secondwave ETE for ambulances do exceed the general population ETE at

the 90th percentile. Mutual aid agreements with neighboring counties and assistance

from the state should be considered to address the shortfall in ambulance resources

(SeeSections8.4and8.5).

6. IntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS)suchasDynamicMessageSigns(DMS),Highway



SurryPowerStation 131 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Advisory Radio (HAR), Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS), etc. should be

used to facilitate the evacuation process (See Section 9). The placement of additional

signageshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.

7. Thecities/countiesshouldestablishstrategiclocationstopositiontowtrucksprovided

withgasolinecontainersintheeventofadisabledvehicleduringtheevacuationprocess

(see Section 11) and should encourage gas stations to remain open during the

evacuation.

8. Counties/states should establish a system/procedure to confirm that the Advisory to

Evacuateisbeingadheredto(seetheapproachsuggestedbyKLDinSection12).Should

the approach recommended by KLD in Section 12 be used, consideration should be

giventokeepalistoftelephonenumberswithintheEPZintheEmergencyOperations

Center(EOC)atalltimes.





SurryPowerStation 132 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

APPENDIXA

GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms

A. GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS

TableA1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms

Term Definition

AnalysisNetwork  Agraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysical

roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and



nodes.

Link A network link represents a specific, onedirectional section of

roadway.  A link has both physical (length, number of lanes,

topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages,

servicerate,freeflowspeed)characteristics.

MeasuresofEffectiveness Statisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.

Node A network node generally represents an intersection of network

links.  A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of

servicetimetoeachapproachlink.

Origin A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow

Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles

perhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotravelto

theirrespectivedestinations.

PrevailingRoadwayand Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g.,

TrafficConditions  composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions

  (weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).

ServiceRate  Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn

 maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the

prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or

vehiclesperhour(vph).

ServiceVolume  Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of

 roadway in one direction during a specified time period with

operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service

VolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).

ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).

SignalCycleLength  Thetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.

Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.

SignalInterval Asinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationis

 expressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequence

ofsignalintervals,usuallygreen,yellow,red.



SurryPowerStation A1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Term Definition

SignalPhase  A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a

particular combination of traffic movements on selected



approaches to the intersection.  The phase duration is expressed

inseconds.

Traffic(Trip)Assignment Aprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayasto

  satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel

from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination)



and to optimize some stated objective or combination of

objectives.  In general, the objective is stated in terms of

minimizing a generalized "cost".  For example, "cost" may be

expressedintermsoftraveltime.

TrafficDensity Thenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysection

 of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per

mile(vpm).

Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofalltrafficgenerated

  at the origins.  The result often takes the form of a Trip Table,

 whichisamatrixoforigindestinationtrafficvolumes.

TrafficSimulation Acomputermodeldesignedtoreplicatetherealworldoperation

of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics



describing traffic performance. These statistics are called

MeasuresofEffectiveness.

TrafficVolume Thenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinone

 direction,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,

trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.

TravelMode Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air

travelmodes.

TripTableorOrigin A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number

DestinationMatrix oftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtime

period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its



specifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesper

hour(vph)orinvehicles.

TurningCapacity Thecapacityassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstream

whichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatan



intersection.





SurryPowerStation A2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

APPENDIXB

DTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel

B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL

This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named

DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in

analyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpathchoiceprinciplesandisone

of the models of the DYNEVII System. The DTRAD module implements pathbased Dynamic

TrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOriginDestination(OD)tripsareassignedto

routesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.

To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity

information,thetimevaryingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,

asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.

DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestinations)andtheoptimal

dynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetraveling

toitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravelcost.

OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModel

Theunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledin

anevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialrisk

asrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthebestroutes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese

bestroutesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsand

routesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacuee

behavior.

Foreachorigin,asetofcandidatedestinationnodesisselectedbythesoftwarelogicandby

theanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccess

major highways.  The specific destination nodes within this set that are selected by travelers

and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This

determinationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip

cost,asdiscussedlater.

Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthe

network(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.

TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimulationmodel,executesasuccession

of sessions wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for

theconditionsthatexistatthattime.

InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRAD

The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general

direction away from the location of the hazardous event.  An algorithm was developed to

support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (OD matrix) over time from

one DTRAD session to the next.  Another algorithm executes a mapping from the specified

geometricnetwork(linknodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,

toapathnetworkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsare

performedonthepathnetwork:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthegeometricnetwork.



SurryPowerStation B1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

DTRADDescription

DTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.

When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available

betweentriporiginsanddestinations.Theproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagating

them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEVII using

macroscopic traffic simulation modeling. Traffic assignment deals with computing the

distributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenODdemandsandisamodelofthe

route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road

networkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,timevaryingsignaltimingorreduced

road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion. To consider these time

dependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.

The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the

specificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutes

throughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbythesimulation

model).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetimedependent

conditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofDTRADinclude:

x Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsome

alsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral

efficientroutesforeachODpairfromwhichthedriverschoose.

x Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeofdiscretechoice

modeling.Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdrivers

that choose each route is computed. The most prevalent model for discrete choice

modelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPathSizeLogitmodel(PSL).PSL

overcomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatingan

additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the

randomutilityexpression.

x DTRAD executes the TA algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the

path network" which is built from the actual physical linknode analysis network. This

executioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimeson

the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the

next.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser.

x Travel cost plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear

summationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralized

costforalink,a,isexpressedas

 ca D ta  E la  J sa ,

where ca is the generalized cost for link a, and D , E , and J are cost coefficients for link

traveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplemental

costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a

dynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel



SurryPowerStation B2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationto

constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next

simulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.This

way,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyreassignedbasedontimedependentconditions.

TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodels

isdepictedinFigureB1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession

(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopB inthe

figure.

x The supplemental cost is based on the survival distribution (a variation of the

exponential distribution).The Inverse Survival Function is a cost term in DTRAD to

representthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:



sa=ln(p),0pl;0



p= 



dn=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplant

d0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk

=Scalingfactor



The value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the shadow region.  Note that the

supplementalcost,sa, oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)the

powerplant.

 



SurryPowerStation B3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

NetworkEquilibrium



In1952,JohnWardropwrote:

Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchaway

thatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.

TheabovestatementdescribestheUserEquilibriumdefinition,alsocalledtheSelfishDriver

Equilibrium.Itisahypothesisthatrepresentsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeas

drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective

costs.Ithasbeenfoundthatthisequilibriumobjectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealized

bymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,

commuters).Effectively,suchdriverslearnwhichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,

thetrafficenvironmentsettlesdowntoanearequilibriumstate.

Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealong term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state.  Consequently, DTRAD was

not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar

situation, who respond in a flexible manner to realtime information (either broadcast or

observed)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

 



SurryPowerStation B4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 StartofnextDTRADSession A

Set  Clocktime.

ArchiveSystemStateat  

DefinelatestLinkTurn

Percentages

ExecuteSimulationModelfrom

B time,   (burntime)

ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEat

time,  

ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentages

RetrieveSystemStateat  ;

ApplynewLinkTurnPercents

DTRADiterationconverges?

No Yes Nextiteration Simulatefrom   

(DTAsessionduration)

SetClockto 

B A



FigureB1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterface



SurryPowerStation B5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

APPENDIXC

DYNEVTrafficSimulationModel

C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL

The DYNEV traffic simulation model is a macroscopic model that describes the operations of

trafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,

queuelength,oneachlink,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtime

step).  The model generates trips from sources and from Entry Links and introduces them

onto the analysis network at rates specified by the analyst based on the mobilization time

distributions.Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertime

untilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)

suchasthoselistedinTableC1.

ModelFeaturesInclude:

x Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterative

procedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepfor

thepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles.

x Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedto

estimatethenumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturn

movement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel.

x Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queued

andmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehicle

spillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredand

quantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineach

timestepofthesimulation.Thereisnoverticalstackingofqueuesonalink.

x Any link can accommodate source flow from zones via side streets and parking

facilities that are not explicitly represented.  This flow represents the evacuating trips

thataregeneratedatthesource.

x Therelationbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacity

is monitored every time step for every link and for every turn movement.  If the

available storage capacity on a link is exceeded by the demand for service, then the

simulator applies a metering rate to the entering traffic from both the upstream

feedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacityisnotexceeded.

x A path network that represents the specified traffic movements from each network

linkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel.

x A twowayinterface with DTRAD:(1) provideslink travel times;(2)receives data that

translatesintolinkturnpercentages.

x ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN

x CalculatesETEstatistics

 



SurryPowerStation C1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

All traffic simulation models are dataintensive.  Table C2 outlines the necessary input data

elements.

To provide an efficient framework for defining these specifications, the physical highway

environment is represented as a network.  The unidirectional links of the network represent

roadway sections: rural, multilane, urban streets or freeways.  The nodes of the network

generallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges

(e.g.alanedrop,changeingradeorfreeflowspeed).

Figure C1 is an example of a small network representation.  The freeway is defined by the

sequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExit

links,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithin

agridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregradeseparated.



TableC1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII

Measure Units AppliesTo

VehiclesDischarged Vehicles Link,Network,ExitLink

Speed Miles/Hours(mph) Link,Network

Density Vehicles/Mile/Lane Link

LevelofService LOS Link

Content Vehicles Network

TravelTime Vehiclehours Network

EvacuatedVehicles Vehicles Network,ExitLink

TripTravelTime Vehicleminutes/trip Network

CapacityUtilization Percent ExitLink

Attraction Percentoftotalevacuatingvehicles ExitLink

MaxQueue Vehicles Node,Approach

TimeofMaxQueue Hours:minutes Node,Approach

Length (mi); Mean Speed (mph); Travel

RouteStatistics Route

Time(min)

MeanTravelTime Minutes EvacuationTrips;Network

 



SurryPowerStation C2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

TableC2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel

HIGHWAYNETWORK

x Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers

x Linklengths

x Numberoflanes(upto9)andchannelization

x Turnbays(1to3lanes)

x Destination(exit)nodes

x Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink

x NodeCoordinates(X,Y)

x NuclearPowerPlantCoordinates(X,Y)

GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES

x Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriod

TRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS

x Trafficsignals:linkspecific,turnmovementspecific

x Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated

x Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals)

x StopandYieldsigns

x Rightturnonred(RTOR)

x Routediversionspecifications

x Turnrestrictions

x Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movementspecific)

DRIVERSANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS

x Drivers(vehiclespecific)responsemechanisms:freeflowspeed,dischargeheadway

x Busroutedesignation.

DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT

x Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional)

x DurationofDTAsessions

x Durationofsimulationburntime

x Desirednumberofdestinationnodesperorigin

INCIDENTS

x IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes

x IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks

 



SurryPowerStation C3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

8011 8009 2 3 8104 8107 6 5 8008 8010 8 9 10 8007 8012 12 11 8006 8005 13 14 8014 15 25 8004 16 24 8024 17 8003 23 22 21 20 8002 Entry,ExitNodesare 19 numbered8xxx

8001



FigureC1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork





SurryPowerStation C4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

C.1 Methodology

C.1.1 TheFundamentalDiagram

It is necessary to define the fundamental diagram describing flowdensity and speeddensity

relationships. Rather than settling for a triangular representation, a more realistic

representation that includes a capacity drop, (IR) at the critical density when flow

conditions enter the forced flow regime, is developed and calibrated for each link. This

representation,showninFigureC2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity, ,andthen

alinearreductioninspeedintherange, thedensityatcapacity.Inthe

flowdensityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange, 

whichroughlyrepresentsthestopandgoconditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflow

rate,  corresponding to  is approximated at   A linear relationship

between  completesthediagramshowninFigureC2.TableC3isaglossaryofterms.

The fundamental diagram is applied to moving traffic on every link. The specified calibration

values for each link are: (1) Free speed, ; (2) Capacity,  ; (3) Critical density, 

(4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity, Then,  



 Setting then   for Itcanbe

shownthat     



C.1.2 TheSimulationModel

Thesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceofunitproblems.Eachunitproblemcomputesthe

movementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval

(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC3isarepresentationofthe

unitprobleminthetimedistanceplane.TableC3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedin

thefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.









 











SurryPowerStation C5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 

 











 





 



  



FigureC2.FundamentalDiagrams





 Distance

  

Down

  



 

Up

me

 







FigureC3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht1>0



SurryPowerStation C6 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

TableC3.Glossary

Themaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischarge

Cap

fromalinkwithinatimeinterval.

The number of vehicles, of a particular movement, that enter the link over the

E

timeinterval.Theportion,ETI,canreachthestopbarwithintheTI.

The green time: cycle time ratio that services the vehicles of a particular turn

G/C

movementonalink.

h Themeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.

k Densityinvehiclesperlanepermile.

TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,ona



link.

L Thelengthofthelinkinfeet.

Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofa

   

timeinterval.

Thenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoservicea

LN

particularmovementonalink.

  Themeaneffectivelength ofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.

M Meteringfactor(Multiplier):1.

The number of moving vehicles on the link, of a particular movement, that are

    movingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumed

tobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.

Thetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfroma

O

linkoveratimeinterval.

The components of the vehicles of a particular movement that are discharged

fromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningof

     

the TI; vehicles that were Moving within the link at the beginning of the TI;

vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.

The percentage, expressed as a fraction, of the total flow on the link that

 

executesaparticularturnmovement,x.

 



SurryPowerStation C7 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe

   

[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.

Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovement

  intheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateof

linkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM.

R The factor that is applied to the capacity of a link to represent the capacity

drop when the flow condition moves into the forced flow regime. The lower

capacityatthatpointisequalto  .

RCap The remaining capacity available to service vehicles of a particular movement

afterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressed

asvehicles.

  Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).

 Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirst seconds

of a time interval, can reach the stopbar (in the absence of a queue down stream)withinthesametimeinterval.

TI Thetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.

v The mean speed of travel, in feet per second (fps) or miles per hour (mph), of

movingvehiclesonthelink.

 Themeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithin

theTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.

W The width of the intersection in feet. This is the difference between the link

lengthwhichextendsfromstopbartostopbarandtheblocklength.





 



SurryPowerStation C8 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

The formulation and the associated logic presented below are designed to solve the unit

problemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementserviced

oneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationofthe

evacuation.



                     

     

       

1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity, theR-factor,

 andenteringtraffic, usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.

Foreachsubsequentsweep,        arethe

relevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)over

thisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.

Setiterationcounter,n=0,    



2.    usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthe

fundamentaldiagram.

 

      



         



     





3.               

  

4.      





5.   

    

  

    



  

Endif

   



6.   

      



7.     



SurryPowerStation C9 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



          



   

   

      

 

     

 

  

     

      

 



9.   

    

    

       

       

10.   

     

     

 

     

     

  

  

      

  

  Endif

Endif

Endif

11.     

where =densityatthebeginningoftheTI

=densityattheendoftheTI

=densityatthemidpointoftheTI

Allvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.



   

    





SurryPowerStation C10 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

12.     

Endif



Computation of unit problem is now complete. Check for excessive inflow causing

spillback.





13.   



The number of excess vehicles that cause spillback is:      

where W is the width of the upstream intersection. To prevent spillback, meter the

outflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbythe

amount,SB.Thatis,set



    

 

Thismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobe

appliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.



AlgorithmA



This analysis addresses the flow environment over a TI during which moving vehicles can

join a standing or discharging queue. For the case

v Q shown,    a queue of

Qb Qe

Qe length,   formed by that portion of  

that reaches the stopbar within the TI, but could

v not discharge due to inadequate capacity. That is,

Mb     This queue length,

v

L3     canbeextendedto 

by traffic entering the approach during the current

TI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthe

t1 t3 queue within the TI. A portion of the entering

TI vehicles,  willlikelyjointhequeue.This

analysis calculates      for the input

valuesofL,TI,v,E,t, ,LN, .



  

 

          

 

      Recognizingthat

thefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefor toobtain:





SurryPowerStation C11 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



   

 



 



Ifthedenominator,    



       

 

The complete Algorithm A considers all flow scenarios; space limitation precludes its

inclusion,here.



C.1.3 LaneAssignment

Theunitproblemissolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessaryto

calculateavalue, ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecified

by,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,then

theproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainunchannelizedlanesonalink,thenan

analysis is undertaken to subdivide the number of these physical lanes into turn movement

specificvirtuallanes,LNx.



C.2 Implementation

C.2.1 ComputationalProcedure

ThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigure

C4. As discussed earlier, the simulation model processes traffic flow for each link

independentlyoverTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststep

istoexecuteanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedso

thatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthe

samenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibleto

guaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.

Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulation

is completed. Within each time step, the processing performs a series of sweeps over all

network links; this is necessary to ensure that the traffic flow is synchronous over the entire

network.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthe

contextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSarealldefinedforeachlinksuch

thattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutbound

links.Thesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillback.

Withineachsweep,processingsolvestheunitproblemforeachturnmovementoneachlink.

WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithm



SurryPowerStation C12 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

allocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,if

any,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio,thesignaltiming

needed to define this ratio is an input requirement for the model. The model also has the

capabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsresponding

tothetimevaryingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.

Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischarge

fromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkatthe

end of the time interval as stratified by queued and moving vehicles:    The

procedure considers each movement separately (multipiping). After all network links are

processed for a given network sweep, the updated consistent values of entering flows, E;

meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythenospillbackcondition.

The procedure then performs the unit problem solutions for all network links during the

followingsweep.

Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandSsettledownfor

allnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyundersaturatedorinfoursweeps

in the presence of extensive congestion with link spillback. (The initial sweep over each link

usesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,

the procedure computes and stores all measures of effectiveness for each link and turn

movementforoutputpurposes.Itthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthe

valuesof  forthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesof  attheend

ofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntil

the end of the run. Note that there is no spacediscretization other than the specification of

networklinks.







 



SurryPowerStation C13 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

SequenceNetworkLinks NextTimestep,ofduration,TI A

Nextsweep;DefineE,M,Sforall

B

Links C NextLink D NextTurnMovement,x Getlanes,

ServiceRate, ;  

GetinputstoUnitProblem:

  ,E

SolveUnitProblem:  

No D

LastMovement?

Yes No LastLink? C

Yes No B

LastSweep?

Yes Calc.,storeallLinkMOE SetupnextTI:

No A

LastTime- step?

Yes DONE



FigureC4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC3)



SurryPowerStation C14 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

C.2.2 InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)

The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general

directionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedto

identifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandonthe

expected direction of travel. This algorithm also supports the DTRAD model in dynamically

varyingtheTripTable(ODmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext. 

FigureB1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEV

IIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRADsessions;eachsuchsession

computestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlinkthatremainconstantforthesessionduration,

   specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfrom

each origin to paths connecting it with its destinations in such a way as to minimize the

networkwide cost function. The output of the DTRAD model is a set of updated link turn

percentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.

As indicated in Figure B1, the simulation model supports the DTRAD session by providing it

with operational link MOE that are needed by the path choice model and included in the

DTRAD cost function. These MOE represent the operational state of the network at a time,

   which lies within the session duration,   . This burn time,    is

selectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechange

in network operations over this burn timeusing the latest set of link turn percentages

computed by the DTRAD model. Upon convergence of the DTRAD iterative procedure, the

simulation model accepts the latest turn percentages provided by the DTA model, returns to

theorigintime, andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationat

time, AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntilthe

endoftheDYNEVIIrun.

AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.



SurryPowerStation C15 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

APPENDIXD

DetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure

D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE

This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time

Estimates.TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD1.

Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementin

theflowdiagram.

Step1

ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEPZboundaryinformationandcreateaGISbasemap.Thebase

mapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)from

the power plant location. The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable

topographicbackgroundandtheEPZboundary.

Step2

2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to

estimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatial

distributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.Employee

data were estimated using the U.S. Census Bureaus Longitudinal EmployerHousehold

Dynamicsinteractivewebsite1,andfromphonecallstomajoremployers.Transientdatawere

obtainedfromlocal/stateemergencymanagementagenciesandfromphonecallstotransient

attractions.Informationconcerningschools,medicalandothertypesofspecialfacilitieswithin

the EPZ was obtained from county and municipal sources, augmented by telephone contacts

withtheidentifiedfacilities.

Step3

A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and local emergency

managers, onsite and offsite utility emergency managers, local and state law enforcement

agencies).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,

identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the study. Specific

requestsforinformationwerepresentedtolocalemergencymanagers.Uniquefeaturesofthe

studyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETE

study.

Step4

Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodetermine

thegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsection

of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at

intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for

pretimedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealistic

valuesofroadwaycapacity.



1 http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/



SurryPowerStation D1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Step5

A telephone survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household

dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuationrelated demographic information of

theEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincluding

theaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredto

performpreevacuationmobilizationactivities.

Step6

A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a linknode analysis

network,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryof

thenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduring

the road survey (Step 4). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other linkspecific

characteristics were introduced to the network description. Traffic signal timings were input

accordingly. The linknode analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data

were overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the

evacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.

Step7

TheEPZissubdividedinto30PAZs.Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsof

PAZs)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.

The need for evacuation can occur over a range of timeofday, dayofweek, seasonal and

weatherrelated conditions. Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation

demand, highway capacity and mobilization time, for different time of day, day of the week,

timeofyear,andweatherconditions.

Step8

TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentand

distributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototype

evacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.

Step9

After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II System was executed on the prototype

evacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriate

NRC guidelines. DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the

completenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarningand

error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input

streamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.

The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial

evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The analyst may optionally supplement and/or

replacethesemodelassigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthe

topology of the analysis highway network.  The model produces link and networkwide

measuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.



SurryPowerStation D2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Step10

The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined. The

examination includes observing the animated graphics (using the EVAN software which

operatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.This

isalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossess

thenecessarypracticalexperiencetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofany

problemsreflectedintheresults.

Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent

locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this

congestion.Thiscausecantakemanyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftrip

generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the

physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two

conclusions:

x Theresultsaresatisfactory;or

x Theinputstreammustbemodifiedaccordingly.

Thisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebased

upontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresults

of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones.  If the results are

satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13.  Otherwise,

proceedtoStep11.

Step11

There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.  These

treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation

destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce

significantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionsso

as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific

treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major

roadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototype

evacuation case input stream.  All treatments are designed to improve the representation of

evacuationbehavior.

Step12

As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the

modificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnsto

Step9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.

Step13

Evacuationoftransitdependentevacueesandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuation

analysis. Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit

vehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEV IIgenerates

routespecific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit



SurryPowerStation D3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

dependentandspecialfacilitypopulationgroups.

Step14

The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario specificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuser

interface. For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation

distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a

customizedcasespecificdataset.

Step15

AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswere

available,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamic

routingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.

Step16

Once vehicular evacuation results are accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special

facility routes were used to compute evacuation time estimates for transitdependent

permanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.

Step17

The simulation results are analyzed, tabulated and graphed.  The results were then

documented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR7002.

Step18

Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklist(seeAppendix

N)wascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferenceisprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedin

thechecklist.



SurryPowerStation D4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



A Step1 Step10 CreateGISBaseMap ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCase

usingEVANand

DYNEVIIOutput Step2 GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDatafor ResultsSatisfactory StudyArea Step11 Step3 ModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelop

ConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholders TrafficControlTreatments Step4 Step12 FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyArea ModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototype

EvacuationCase Step5 ConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTrip

GenerationCharacteristics B

Step13 Step6 EstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuation

CreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork RoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase

Step14 Step7 GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAll

EvacuationCases DevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenarios Step15 Step8 ExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAll

CreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStream EvacuationCases Step16 Step9 UseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoCompute

ETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes B ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCase Step17 Documentation A Step18 CompleteETECriteriaChecklist









FigureD1.FlowDiagramofActivities



SurryPowerStation D5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

APPENDIXE

SpecialFacilityData

E. SPECIALFACILITYDATA

The following tables list population information, as of August 2012, for special facilities,

transientattractionsandmajoremployersthatarelocatedwithintheSPSEPZ.Specialfacilities

aredefinedasschools,(evacuating)daycares,medicalcarefacilities,andcorrectionalfacilities.

Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetablesforrecreationalareasandlodgingfacilities.

Eachtableisgroupedbycity/county.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraightline

distance(miles)anddirection(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant.Mapsof

eachschool,recreationalarea,lodgingfacility,andmajoremployerarealsoprovided.





SurryPowerStation E1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

TableE1.SchoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZ

Distance Dire

PAZ (miles) ction SchoolName StreetAddress City/County Phone Enrollment Staff

23 6.8 NW ClaraByrdBakerElementarySchool 3131IronboundRd JamesCity (757)2210949 509 93

23 11.2 NNW DJMontagueElementarySchool 5380CentervilleRd JamesCity (757)2583022 469 70

24 7.7 NW JamestownHighSchool 3751JohnTylerHwy JamesCity (757)2593600 1186 128

24 10.0 NW MatoakaElementarySchool 4001BrickBatRd JamesCity (757)5644001 732 98

24 7.8 NW ProvidenceClassicalSchool 6000EasterCircle JamesCity (757)5652900 195 29

18C 5.6 NE GileadChristianAcademy 8660PocahontasTrail JamesCity (757)2294654 15 1

18D 5.3 NE JamesRiverElementarySchool 8901PocahontasTrail JamesCity (757)8871768 493 73

22B 6.0 NNW RawlsByrdElementarySchool 112LaurelLn JamesCity (727)2297597 461 69

14 7.0 E GeneralStanfordElementarySchool 929MadisonAve NewportNews (757)8883200 575 70

15 10.3 ESE BCCharlesElementarySchool 701MenchvilleRd NewportNews (757)8867750 546 90

15 10.2 ESE FirstBaptistChurchDenbigh 3628CampbellRd NewportNews (757)8337261 120 18

15 10.5 ESE JenkinsElementarySchool 80MenchvilleRd NewportNews (757)8815400 440 70

15 10.4 ESE MenchvilleHighSchool 275MenchvilleRd NewportNews (757)8867722 1776 198

15 9.3 ESE SanfordElementarySchool 480ColonyRd NewportNews (757)8867778 630 75

15 9.4 ESE WarwickRiverChristianSchool 252LucasCreekRd NewportNews (757)8772941 260 52

16 8.1 E DavidADutrowElementarySchool 60CurtisTignorRd NewportNews (757)8867760 487 60

16 10.4 E DenbighChristianAcademy 1233ShieldsRd NewportNews (757)8748661 180 45

16 8.7 ESE DenbighHighSchool 259DenbighBlvd NewportNews (757)8867700 1421 137

16 8.5 ESE EpesElementarySchool 855LucasCreekRd NewportNews (757)8867755 532 85

16 9.4 E GeorgeJMcIntoshElementary 185Richneckrd NewportNews (757)8867767 500 85

16 8.7 ESE HolyTabernacleChristianAcademy 14749WarwickBlvd NewportNews (757)8869515 94 14

16 8.0 E JMDozierMiddleSchool 432IndustrialParkDr NewportNews (757)8883300 1145 125

16 7.2 ENE LeeHallElementarySchool 17346WarwickBlvd NewportNews (757)8883320 634 89

16 8.4 E MaryPassageMiddleSchool 400AtkinsonWay NewportNews (757)8867600 969 120



SurryPowerStation E2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Distance Dire

PAZ (miles) ction SchoolName StreetAddress City/County Phone Enrollment Staff

OliverCGreenwoodElementary

16 9.4 E School 13460WoodsideLn NewportNews (757)8867744 630 80

16 9.6 E RichneckElementarySchool 205TynerDr NewportNews (757)8867772 674 75

16 7.9 ESE RONelsonElementarySchool 826MoyerRd NewportNews (757)8867783 584 88

16 9.6 E WoodsideHighSchool 13450WoodsideLn NewportNews (757)8867530 2102 199

21 7.8 NNW BerkeleyMiddleSchool 1118IronboundRd Williamsburg (757)2298051 829 105

21 7.2 N CollegeofWilliamandMary 116JamestownRd Williamsburg (757)2214000 8200 2700

21 7.5 N MatthewWhaleyElementarySchool 301ScotlandSt Williamsburg (757)2291931 471 65

21 6.5 NNW WalsinghamAcademy(LowerSchool) 1100JamestownRd Williamsburg (757)2292642 318 40

21 6.5 NNW WalsinghamAcademy(UpperSchool) 1100JamestownRd Williamsburg (757)2296026 243 43

11201GeorgeWashington

17 10.8 ENE YorktownMiddleSchool MemorialHwy York (757)8980360 621 94

19A 7.0 N MagruderElementarySchool 700PennimanRd York (757)2204067 322 48

19A 6.6 NNE YorkCountyHeadStart 1490GovernmentRd York (757)8903888 574 86

20A 10.0 N BrutonHighSchool 185EastRochambeauDr York (757)2204050 65 28

20A 8.8 N WallerMillElementarySchool 314WallerMillRd York (757)2204060 609 87

20A 8.7 N WilliamsburgHeadStart 312WallerMillRd York (757)2296417 747 112

20B 8.2 N QueensLakeMiddleSchool 124WestQueensDr York (757)2204080 68 22

TOTAL: 31,426 5,766

 



SurryPowerStation E3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

TableE2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ

Dist Ambul Wheel Bed

ance Dire Cap Current atory chair ridden

PAZ (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress City/County Phone acity Census Patients Patients Patients

23 8.2 NNW ChambrelatWilliamsburg 3800TreyburnDr JamesCity (757)2201839 53 50 46 3 1

HancockGeriatric

23 9.0 NNW TreatmentCenter 4601IronboundRd JamesCity (757)9846000 300 265 215 20 30

24 6.4 NW ConsulateHealthCare 1811JamestownRd JamesCity (757)2299991 90 85 0 43 44

TheCovalescentat

PatriotsColony 6200PatriotsColony

24 8.7 NW Williamsburg Dr JamesCity (757)2209000 60 58 13 45 0

Morningsideof

18B 6.0 NNE Williamsburg 440McLawsCircle JamesCity (757)2210018 85 80 64 15 1

ColonialManorSenior

18C 5.4 NE Community 8679PocahontasTrl JamesCity (757)4766721 65 54 29 25 0

WoodhavenHallAt 5500Williamsburg

22B 5.8 NNW Williamsburg LandingDr JamesCity (757)2538801 15 9 5 3 1

16 8.1 E St.FrancisNursingCenter 15446WarwickBlvd NewportNews (757)8866000 115 105 57 37 11

1235S Mount

21 8.2 N EnvoyHealthCare VernonAve Williamsburg (757)2294121 150 150 0 130 20

MadisonRetirement

21 9.9 NNW Center 251PatriotLn Williamsburg (757)2204014 90 75 65 10 0

SpringArborof 935CapitolLanding

21 8.4 N Williamsburg Rd Williamsburg (757)5653584 50 50 46 4 0

Windsormeadeof

21 7.2 N Williamsburg 3900WindsorHallDr Williamsburg (866)4035503 12 12 3 9 0

TOTAL: 1,085 993 543 344 108





SurryPowerStation E4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

TableE3.Parks/RecreationalAttractionswithintheEPZ

Distance Dire

PAZ (miles) ction FacilityName FacilityType StreetAddress City/County Phone Transients Vehicles

23 10.7 NNW Ford'sColonyCountryClub Golf 240FordsColonyDr JamesCity (757)2584100 581 245

24 6.3 NW JamestownSettlement HistoricalSite 2110JamestownRd JamesCity (757)2534838 5,000 900

24 11.0 WNW TwoRiversCountryClub Golf 1400TwoRiversRd JamesCity (757)2584610 291 123

24 9.0 NW WilliamsburgNationalGolfClub Golf 3700CentervilleRd JamesCity (800)8265732 349 147

18B 5.4 NNE BuschGardens Parks 1BuschGardenBlvd JamesCity (757)2533000 20,712 8,385

18B 4.6 NNE KingsmillGolfClub Golf 100GolfClubRd JamesCity (757)2533906 664 280

22A 5.4 NW JamestownNationalPark Parks 1367ColonialParkway JamesCity (757)8983400 400 125

14 5.6 ESE ThePinesGolfCourse Golf Building3501MulberryIslandDr NewportNews (757)8782965 175 112

15 11.1 ESE DeepCreekLandingMarina Marinas 200OldMarinaLn NewportNews (757)8779555 14 14

NewportNewsGolfClubatDeer

16 9.2 E Run Golf 901ClubhouseWay NewportNews (757)8867925 280 70

16 8.4 E NewportNewsPark Parks 13564JeffersonAve NewportNews (757)8867912 700 280

16 8.1 E NewportNewsParkCampground Campgrounds 13564JeffersonAve NewportNews (757)8883333 464 188

5 2.4 SW ChippokesPlantationStatePark Parks 695ChippokesParkRd Surry (757)2943439 84 34

1 21 7.2 N ColonialWilliamsburg  HistoricalSite DukeofGloucesterSt Williamsburg (757)2292141 0 0

ColonialWilliamsburgRegional

21 7.8 N VisitorCenter Parks 101VisitorCenterDr Williamsburg (757)2291000 4,400 1,650

21 6.7 N GoldenHorseshoeGolfCourse Golf 401SouthEnglandSt Williamsburg (757)2207696 350 158

19A 7.4 NNE WaterCountryUSA Parks 176WaterCountryPkwy York (800)3437946 3,913 864

19A 6.1 NNE WilliamsburgCountryClub Golf 1801MerrimacTrail York (757)2210573 30 13

20A 10.2 N WallerMillPark Parks 901AirportRd York (757)2593778 210 53

20B 9.9 NNE DeerCoveGolfCourse Golf 108SandaAve York (757)8876539 83 35

TOTAL: 38,700 13,676

1. TransientandvehiclesvisitingColonialWilliamsburgareassignedtotheColonialWilliamsburgRegionalVisitorsCenter



SurryPowerStation E5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

TableE4.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ

Dist ance Dire Tran PAZ (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress City/County Phone sients Vehicles

23 10.5 NNW Marriott'sManorClubatFord'sColony 101StAndrewsDr JamesCity (757)2581120 601 279

23 10.2 NNW PineappleInnandHousingCenter 5437RichmondRd JamesCity (757)2599670 200 170

23 10.5 NNW TheColoniesofWilliamsburg 5380OldeTowneRd JamesCity (757)9032000 457 212

23 7.6 NNW TheHistoricPowhatanResort 3601IronboundRd JamesCity (757)2201200 1,335 620

24 8.8 NW GreenspringsPlantationResort 3500LudwellPkwy JamesCity (757)2531177 966 592

18A 6.6 N CountryInn&SuitesWilliamsburgEast 7135PocahontasTrail JamesCity (757)2296900 268 123

18A 6.8 N FortMagruderINN 6945PocahontasTrail JamesCity (757)2202250 924 422

18A 6.6 NNE RodewayInn&Suites 7224MerrimacTrail JamesCity (757)2290400 80 32

18B 4.4 NNE KingsmillResortandSpa 1010KingsmillRd JamesCity (757)2531703 1,289 395

18B 6.0 NNE QualityInnAtKingsmill 480McLawsCircle JamesCity (757)2201100 250 90

22B 4.5 NNW WedmorePlace 5810WessexHundred JamesCity (866)9336673 84 39

16 8.6 ESE DaysInnNewportNews 14747WarwickBlvd NewportNews (800)2253297 232 138

16 8.3 E EconoLodgeFt.Eustis 15237WarwickBlvd NewportNews (757)8749244 98 73

16 7.2 E HolidayInnExpressNewportNews 16890WarwickBlvd NewportNews (757)8873300 228 85

21 7.7 N APatriotBed&Breakfast 706RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)2292099 1,000 604

21 6.9 N AWilliamsburgWhiteHouse 718JamestownRd Williamsburg (866)2298580 12 6

21 7.4 N AldrichHouseBed&Breakfast 505CapitolCourt Williamsburg (757)2295422 12 8

21 7.7 N AlicePersonHouse 616RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)2209263 4 4

21 7.6 N ApplewoodColonialB&BInc 605RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)9034306 300 71

21 6.9 N BassettMotel 800YorkSt Williamsburg (757)2295175 36 18

21 7.7 N BentleyManorInn 720CollegeTerrace Williamsburg (757)2530202 64 17

21 7.7 N BoxwoodInn 708RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)2216607 11 6

21 7.8 N BudgetInnWilliamsburg 800CapitolLandingRd Williamsburg (757)2292374 78 38

21 7.0 N CedarsofWilliamsburgBed&Breakfast 616JamestownRd Williamsburg (800)2963591 18 6

21 7.1 N ClarionHotelHistoricDistrict 351YorkSt Williamsburg (757)2294100 300 263



SurryPowerStation E6 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Dist ance Dire Tran PAZ (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress City/County Phone sients Vehicles

21 7.5 N ColonialCapitalBed&Breakfast 501RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)2290233 8 4

21 6.5 NNW ColonialGardensBedandBreakfast 1109JamestownRd Williamsburg (757)2208087 9 9

21 8.2 N CountryHearthInn 924CapitolLandingRd Williamsburg (757)2295215 167 81

21 6.6 N CrownePlazaHotelWilliamsburg 6945PocahontasTrail Williamsburg (757)2202250 989 303

21 9.2 N DaysInnWilliamsburgCentral 1900RichmondRd Williamsburg (800)8285353 180 55

21 7.8 N DaysInnWilliamsburgColonialArea 902RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)2295060 200 187

21 7.5 N EconoLodgeColonial 216PkwyDr Williamsburg (757)2536450 189 58

21 8.4 N FairfieldInn&SuitesWilliamsburg 1402RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)6453600 483 148

21 7.7 N Fox&GrapeBed&Breakfast 701MonumentalAve Williamsburg (757)2296914 115 35

21 7.4 N Governor'sTraceBed&Breakfast 303CapitolLandingRd Williamsburg (757)2297552 8 7

21 8.1 N HamptonInn&SuitesWilliamsburg 911CapitolLandingRd Williamsburg (757)2297330 328 152

21 8.9 N HiltonGardenInnWilliamsburg 1624RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)2539400 330 202

HolidayInnExpressHotel&Suites

21 8.7 N Williamsburg 1452RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)9411057 284 174

21 9.8 NNW HolidayInnHotelWilliamsburg 3032RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)5652600 481 223

21 7.5 N HospitalityHouse 415RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)2294020 1,184 553

21 6.9 N HughesGuestHouse 106NewportAve Williamsburg (757)2293493 9 3

21 9.0 NNW Johnson'sGuestHouse 101ThomasNelsonLn Williamsburg (757)2293909 9 3

21 7.9 N LaQuintaInn&SuitesWilliamsburg 814CapitolLandingRd Williamsburg (757)2290200 200 121

21 7.6 N LavendarSeaB&B 507CapitaolLandingRd Williamsburg (757)2293384 150 111

LegacyofWilliamsburgBedand

21 6.9 NNW Breakfast 930JamestownRd Williamsburg (757)2200524 6 3

21 6.6 NNW LibertyRose 1025JamestownRd Williamsburg (757)8713594 12 4

21 7.7 N MagnoliaManor 700RichmondRd Williamsburg (800)4626667 7 7

21 6.7 N NewportHouseBed&Breakfast 710SouthHenrySt Williamsburg (757)2291775 4 4

21 8.4 N QualityInn&Suites 1406RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)2209304 360 164

21 7.5 N QualityInnColony 309PageSt Williamsburg (757)2293470 334 155



SurryPowerStation E7 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Dist ance Dire Tran PAZ (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress City/County Phone sients Vehicles

QualityInnHistoricEast BuschGardens

21 7.0 N Area 505YorkSt Williamsburg (757)2292411 243 113

21 7.9 N RedRoofInnWilliamsburg 824CapitolLandingRd Williamsburg (757)2591948 80 80

21 9.0 NNW ResidenceInnWilliamsburg 1648RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)9412000 400 108

21 8.3 N RochambeauMotel 929CapitolLandingRd Williamsburg (757)2292851 21 21

21 7.9 N RoyalInnColonialWilliamsburg 824CapitolLandingRd Williamsburg (757)2591948 216 101

21 8.9 NNW SpringHillSuites 1644RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)9413001 350 179

21 7.4 N Super8WilliamsburgHistoricArea 3042ndSt Williamsburg (800)4543213 225 112

21 7.3 N TheFifeandDrumInn 441PrinceGeorgeSt Williamsburg (757)3451776 27 13

21 7.9 N TravelodgeKingWilliamInn 834CapitalLandingRd Williamsburg (757)2294933 205 153

21 7.2 N WilliamsburgInn 136EFrancisSt Williamsburg (800)2236800 192 118

21 7.1 N WilliamsburgLodge 310SouthEnglandSt Williamsburg (757)2532277 908 452

21 7.6 N WilliamsburgManorAnAmericanInn 600RichmondRd Williamsburg (757)2208011 12 9

21 6.9 NNW WilliamsburgSamplerBed&Breakfast 922JamestownRd Williamsburg (800)7221169 12 4

21 7.9 N WilliamsburgWoodlandsHotel&Suites 105VisitorCenterDr Williamsburg (757)2532277 1,200 300

19A 7.8 NNE King'sCreekPlantation 191CottageCoveLn York (757)2216760 2,140 856

19A 7.2 N LexingtonGeorgeWashingtonInn 500MerrimacTrail York (757)2201410 742 345

19A 5.9 NNE ParksideResortWilliamsburg 1821MerrimacTrail York (757)3455573 152 70

20A 8.4 N AmericasBestValueInn 119BypassRd York (757)2531663 399 183

20A 8.4 N BestWesternInn 201BypassRd York (757)2200880 324 161

20A 8.2 N ComfortInnHistoricArea 706BypassRd York (757)2299230 451 219

DaysInnWilliamsburgColonialHistoric

20A 8.2 N Area 331BypassRd York (757)2531166 361 168

20A 8.6 N EmbassySuitesWilliamsburg 3006MooretownRd York (757)2296800 497 227

HolidayInnHotel&SuitesWilliamsburg 20A 8.2 N Historic 515BypassRd York (757)2299990 240 192

20A 8.2 N HomewoodSuitesbyHiltonWilliamsburg 601BypassRd York (757)2591199 400 187

20A 8.2 N KnightsInnWilliamsburg 725BypassRd York (800)4770629 247 184



SurryPowerStation E8 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Dist ance Dire Tran PAZ (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress City/County Phone sients Vehicles

20A 8.1 N SleepInnHistoric 220BypassRd York (757)2591700 156 52

20A 8.3 N TravelodgeInnandSuitesHistoricArea 120BypassRd York (800)5447774 244 98

20A 9.1 N WyndhamGovernor'sGreen 4600MooretownRd York (757)5642420 610 280

20A 8.6 N WyndhamKingsgate 619GeorgetownCrescent York (757)2205702 1,804 838

20A 8.3 N WyndhamPatriot'sPlace 725BypassRd York (866)3233087 451 209

TOTAL: 28,202 13,109



 



SurryPowerStation E9 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



TableE5.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ

Distance Dire Cap

PAZ (miles) ction FacilityName StreetAddress City/County Phone acity

18C 6.1 NE VirginiaPeninsulaRegionalJail 9320MerrimacTrail JamesCity (757)8203900 595

TOTAL: 595



 



SurryPowerStation E10 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



FigureE1.SchoolsandDaycareswithintheEPZOverview



SurryPowerStation E11 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



FigureE2.SchoolsandDaycaresNorthernEPZ



SurryPowerStation E12 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



FigureE3.SchoolsandDaycaresEasternEPZ



SurryPowerStation E13 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



FigureE4.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ



SurryPowerStation E14 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



FigureE5.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ



SurryPowerStation E15 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



FigureE6.LodgingwithintheEPZOverview



SurryPowerStation E16 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



FigureE7.LodgingwithintheEPZ-NorthernEPZ



SurryPowerStation E17 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



FigureE8:LodgingwithintheEPZ-NorthernWilliamsburg



SurryPowerStation E18 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



FigureE9.LodgingCentralWilliamsburg



SurryPowerStation E19 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



FigureE10.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ



SurryPowerStation E20 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

APPENDIXF

TelephoneSurvey

F. TELEPHONESURVEY

F.1 Introduction

The development of evacuation time estimates for the SPS EPZ requires the identification of

travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ.

DemographicinformationcanbeobtainedfromCensusdata.Theuseofthisdatahasseveral

limitationswhenappliedtoemergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompassthe

range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities

(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,Censusdatado

notcontainattitudinalresponsesneededfromthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlymay

notaccuratelyrepresenttheanticipatedbehavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.

Theseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleof

the EPZ population. The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning

familydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthe

surveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheformWhatwouldyoudoif?andother

questionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar(Howlongdoesittakeyou

to?)

 



SurryPowerStation F1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

F.2 SurveyInstrumentandSamplingPlan

AttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrument

was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey

instrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.

Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeof

approximately500completedsurveyformsyieldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4.5%atthe

95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alist

ofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF1.Along

witheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawas

determined by overlaying Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software. The

proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each area was identified, as

shown in Table F1.  Note that the average household size computed in Table F1 was an

estimate for sampling purposes and was not used in the ETE study. The survey was also

conductedinSpanishtoaccountforthesignificantSpanishspeakingpopulationwithintheEPZ.

To make sure the survey was as inclusive as possible, 10% of the samples were obtained by

callingcellphonenumbers.

Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.

TableF1.SPSTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan

Populationwithin Required

ZipCode EPZ(2010) Households Sample

23185 42,062 17,274 152

23186 41 17 0

23188 20,945 9,004 79

23430 1,532 623 5

23602 24,817 9,553 83

23603 3,644 1,364 12

23604 2,853 754 7

23606 0 0 0

23608 42,744 16,280 143

23690 2,602 956 8

23692 49 21 0

23839 108 41 0

23846 407 156 1

23881 603 282 2

23883 2,432 957 8

Total 144,839 57,282 500

AverageHouseholdSize: 2.53





SurryPowerStation F2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

F.3 SurveyResults

Theresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsofthearea

canbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobile

ownership, and automobile availability. The distributions of the time to perform certain pre evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to

developthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedin

Section5.

Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshaveadontknow(DK)or

refused entry for a response. It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to

accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who

refuses to answer a few questions. To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses

from a large sample, the practiceis to assume that the distribution of theseresponses is the

same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses. In effect, the DK/refused

responsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.

F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResults

HouseholdSize

Figure F1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household

contains2.47people.The estimated household size (2.53 persons) used to determine the

survey sample (Table F1) was drawn from Census data. The close agreement between the

averagehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthesurveyandfromtheCensusisanindicationofthe

reliabilityofthesurvey.



SurryHouseholdSize 60%

50%

%ofHouseholds 40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+

HouseholdSize



FigureF1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ



SurryPowerStation F3 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



AutomobileOwnership

The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 1.90. It should be

notedthatapproximately3.2percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.The

distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F2. Figure F3 and Figure F4

present the automobile availability by household size. Note that the majority of households

withoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2or

morepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.



SurryVehicleAvailability 60%

50%

%ofHouseholds 40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

NumberofVehicles



FigureF2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability

 



SurryPowerStation F4 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

DistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 15PersonHouseholds 1Person 2People 3People 4People 5People 100%

80%

%ofHouseholds 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

Vehicles



FigureF3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds







DistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize 69+PersonHouseholds 6People 7People 8People 9+People 100%

80%

%ofHouseholds 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+

Vehicles



FigureF4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds



 



SurryPowerStation F5 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Ridesharing

85%ofthehouseholdssurveyedwhodonotownavehiclerespondedthattheywouldsharea

ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when advised to

evacuate in the event of an emergency. Note, however, that only those households with no

accesstoavehicle-20totaloutofthesamplesizeof500-answeredthisquestion.Thus,the

resultsarenotstatisticallysignificant.Assuch,theNRCrecommendationof50%ridesharingis

usedthroughoutthisstudy.FigureF5presentsthisresponse.



SurryRidesharewithNeighbor/Friend 100%

80%

%ofHouseholds 60%

40%

20%

0%

Yes No



FigureF5.HouseholdRidesharingPreference



 



SurryPowerStation F6 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Commuters

Figure F6 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.

Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.

The data shows an average of 0.96 commuters in each household in the EPZ, and 57.0% of

householdshaveatleastonecommuter.



SurryCommuters 50%

40%

%ofHouseholds 30%

20%

10%

0%

0 1 2 3 4+

NumberofCommuters



FigureF6.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ

 



SurryPowerStation F7 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

CommuterTravelModes

FigureF7presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityof

commutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.08

employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.



SurryTravelModetoWork 100%

87.1%

80%

%ofCommuters 60%

40%

20%

4.4% 7.2%

0.4% 0.8%

0%

Rail Bus Walk/Bike DriveAlone Carpool(2+)

ModeofTravel



FigureF7.ModesofTravelintheEPZ



F.3.2 EvacuationResponse

Severalquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulationsresponsetoanemergency.Theseare

nowdiscussed:

Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?Theresponseis

showninFigureF8.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.19vehicles.



SurryPowerStation F8 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

VehiclesUsedforEvacuation 100%

80%

60%

%ofHouseholds 40%

20%

0%

0 1 2 3 4 NumberofVehicles



FigureF8.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation



Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?

Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,60percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofother

family members before evacuating and 40 percent indicated that they would not await the

returnofotherfamilymembers.

Emergencyofficialsadviseyoutotakeshelterathomeinanemergency.Wouldyou?This

question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelterin

place. The results indicate that 81 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place

woulddoso;theremaining19percentwouldchoosetoevacuatethearea.Notethebaseline

ETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asper

Section2.5.2ofNUREG/CR7002.Thus,thedataobtainedaboveisingoodagreementwiththe

federalguidance.

Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in an emergency and possibly

evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you? This

question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged

evacuation. That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a

specified period of time. Results indicate that 74 percent of households would follow

instructionsanddelaythestartofevacuationuntilsoadvised,whilethebalanceof26percent

wouldchoosetobeginevacuatingimmediately.

Whattypeofpetsdoyouhaveandhowmanyofeachtype?Basedontheresponsestothe

survey,48%ofhouseholdshaveatleastonefamilypet.34%ofhouseholds(172)haveatleast

onedog;19%(93)haveatleastonecat(FigureF9).

Whatwouldyoudowithyourpet(s)ifyouhadtoevacuate?Ofthehouseholdswithpets,33



SurryPowerStation F9 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

percent of them indicated that they would take their pets with them to a public assembly

centerorshelter,asshowninFigureF10,59%saidtheywouldevacuatewiththeirpettosome

otherdestinationand8%saidtheywouldleavethepetathome.



PercentofHouseholdswithEachType

ofPet 60%

50%

NumerofHouseholds 40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

Dog Cat Fish Other Bird Reptile Horse NoPets small mammal



FigureF9.PetOwnership



PetEvacuation 70%

PercentofHouseholdsWithPets 60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

PublicShelter SomewhereElse LeaveHome



FigureF10.DestinationsHouseholdswithPets



SurryPowerStation F10 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



F.3.3 TimeDistributionResults

Thesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpre evacuation activities. These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of

theirdaytodaylives.Thus,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftherespondersexperience.

The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis

describedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization.

 



SurryPowerStation F11 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?FigureF11

presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedbyabout75minutes.

Ninetypercentcanleavewithin40minutes.



TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork 100%

80%

%ofCommuters 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 PreparationTime(min)



FigureF11.TimeRequiredtoPreparetoLeaveWork/School



How long would it take the commuter to travel home?  Figure F12 presents the work to

hometraveltimefortheEPZ.About85percentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithinabout40

minutesofleavingwork;allwithin90minutes.



WorktoHomeTravel 100%

80%

%ofCommuters 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 TravelTime(min)



FigureF12.WorktoHomeTravelTime 



SurryPowerStation F12 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, and load the car?

Figure F13 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many

ways this activity mimics a familys preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from

home.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilar

activities. 

ThedistributionshowninFigureF13hasalongtail.About80percentofhouseholdscanbe

readytoleavehomewithin75minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoanadditional

twohours.



TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome 100%

80%

%ofHouseholds 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 60 120 180 240 300 360 420 PreparationTime(min)



FigureF13.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation



 



SurryPowerStation F13 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?  During

adverse,snowyweatherconditions,anadditionalactivitymustbeperformedbeforeresidents

can depart on the evacuation trip.  Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and

highwayshavebeenplowedandarepassable(albeitatlowerspeedsandcapacities),itmaybe

necessarytoclearaprivatedrivewaypriortoleavingthehomesothatthevehiclecanaccess

thestreet.FigureF14presentsthetimedistributionforremoving6to8inchesofsnowfroma

driveway.Thetimedistributionforclearingthedrivewayhasalongtail;about90percentof

drivewaysarepassablewithin90minutes.Thelastdrivewayisclearedthreehoursafterthe

start of this activity. Note that those respondents (33%) who answered that they would not

take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this

activity.Essentiallytheywoulddrivethroughthesnowonthedrivewaytoaccesstheroadway

andbegintheirevacuationtrip.



TimetoRemoveSnowfromDriveway 100%

80%

%ofHouseholds 60%

40%

20%

0%

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 TravelTime(min)



FigureF14.TimetoClearDrivewayof6"8"ofSnow



F.4 Conclusions

The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population,

which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and mobilization time

whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.



SurryPowerStation F14 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



ATTACHMENTA





TelephoneSurveyInstrument



SurryPowerStation F15 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

 Telephone Survey Instrument Hello, my name is and Im working on a survey for COL. 1 Unused Dominion Virginia Power to identify local behavior during COL. 2 Unused emergency situations. This information will be used for emergency COL. 3 Unused planning and will be shared with local officials to enhance COL. 4 Unused emergency response plans in your area for all hazards; emergency planning for some hazards may require evacuation. Your responses COL. 5 Unused will greatly contribute to local emergency preparedness. I will not Sex COL. 8 ask for your name or any personal information, and the survey will 1 Male take less than 10 minutes to complete.

2 Female INTERVIEWER: ASK TO SPEAK TO THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR THE SPOUSE OF THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD. (Terminate call if not a residence.)

DO NOT ASK:

1A. Record area code. To Be Determined COL. 9-11 1B. Record exchange number. To Be Determined COL. 12-14 What is your home zip code? (DO NOT READ COL. 15-16 2A.

ANSWERS) 23185 01 23186 02 23188 03 23430 04 23602 05 23603 06 23604 07 23606 08 23608 09 23690 10 23692 11 23839 12 23846 13 23881 14 23883 15 All Other Zip Codes or Dont Know/Refused Out of Study Area - (Let respondent know that they are not in the study area, thank them for their time then terminate call) 3A. In total, how many running cars, or other vehicles COL. 20 SKIP TO are usually available to the household? 1 ONE Q. 4 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 2 TWO Q. 4 3 THREE Q. 4 4 FOUR Q. 4 5 FIVE Q. 4



SurryPowerStation F16 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

6 SIX Q. 4 7 SEVEN Q. 4 8 EIGHT Q. 4 9 NINE OR MORE Q. 4 0 ZERO (NONE) Q. 3B X DONT KNOW/REFUSED Q. 3B 3B. In an emergency, could you get a ride out of the COL. 21 area with a neighbor or friend? 1 YES 2 NO X DONT KNOW/REFUSED

4. How many people usually live in this household? COL. 22 COL. 23 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 1 ONE 0 TEN 2 TWO 1 ELEVEN 3 THREE 2 TWELVE 4 FOUR 3 THIRTEEN 5 FIVE 4 FOURTEEN 6 SIX 5 FIFTEEN 7 SEVEN 6 SIXTEEN 8 EIGHT 7 SEVENTEEN 9 NINE 8 EIGHTEEN 9 NINETEEN OR MORE X DONT KNOW/REFUSED

5. How many people in the household commute to a COL. 24 SKIP TO job, or to college on a daily basis? 0 ZERO Q. 9 1 ONE Q. 6 2 TWO Q. 6 3 THREE Q. 6 4 FOUR OR MORE Q. 6 5 DONT KNOW/REFUSED Q. 9 INTERVIEWER: For each person identified in Question 5, ask Questions 6, 7, and 8.

6. Thinking about commuter #1, how does that person usually travel to work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER)

Commuter #1 Commuter #2 Commuter #3 Commuter #4 COL. 25 COL. 26 COL. 27 COL. 28 Rail 1 1 1 1 Bus 2 2 2 2 Walk/Bicycle 3 3 3 3 Drive Alone 4 4 4 4 Carpool-2 or more people 5 5 5 5 Dont know/Refused 6 6 6 6

7. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2



SurryPowerStation F17 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

5 MINUTES OR 5 MINUTES OR 1 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 1 46-50 MINUTES LESS LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 BUT LESS THAN 1 15 MINUTES HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 16 MINUTES AND 1 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 31 MINUTES AND 1 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 (SPECIFY ) (SPECIFY )

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 DONT KNOW DONT KNOW X X

/REFUSED /REFUSED



SurryPowerStation F18 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 33 COL. 34 COL. 35 COL. 36 5 MINUTES OR 5 MINUTES OR 1 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 1 46-50 MINUTES LESS LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 BUT LESS THAN 1 15 MINUTES HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 16 MINUTES AND 1 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 31 MINUTES AND 1 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 (SPECIFY ) (SPECIFY )

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 DONT KNOW DONT KNOW X X

/REFUSED /REFUSED

8. Approximately how much time does it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 37 COL. 38 COL. 39 COL. 40 5 MINUTES OR 5 MINUTES OR 1 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 1 46-50 MINUTES LESS LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 BUT LESS THAN 1 15 MINUTES HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 16 MINUTES AND 1 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 16 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 31 MINUTES AND 1 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 31 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 (SPECIFY ) (SPECIFY )

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 X DONT KNOW /REFUSED X DONT KNOW /REFUSED



SurryPowerStation F19 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 41 COL. 42 COL. 43 COL. 44 5 MINUTES OR 5 MINUTES OR 1 1 46-50 MINUTES 1 1 46-50 MINUTES LESS LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 2 6-10 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR 3 11-15 MINUTES 3 56 - 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 4 16-20 MINUTES 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 15 MINUTES MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 16 MINUTES AND 1 5 21-25 MINUTES 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR HOUR 30 MINUTES 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 31 MINUTES AND 1 6 26-30 MINUTES 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR HOUR 45 MINUTES 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 46 MINUTES AND 2 7 31-35 MINUTES 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS HOURS OVER 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 8 36-40 MINUTES 8 (SPECIFY ) (SPECIFY )

9 41-45 MINUTES 9 9 41-45 MINUTES 9 0 0 X DONT KNOW /REFUSED X DONT KNOW /REFUSED

9. If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area?

(DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COL. 45 COL. 46 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 2 15-30 MINUTES 2 MINUTES 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 3 31-45 MINUTES 3 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES - 1 HOUR 4 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 5 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 6 6 MINUTES MINUTES 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 45 7 7 MINUTES MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 8 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 9 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 0 0 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS MINUTES 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 X X OVER 6 HOURS (SPECIFY )

MINUTES Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS Z WILL NOT EVACUATE COL. 47 1 DONT KNOW/REFUSED



SurryPowerStation F20 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

10. If there is 6-8 of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate? If yes, how much time, on average, would it take you to clear the 6-8 of snow to move the car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable. (DO NOT READ RESPONSES)

COL. 48 COL. 49 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 OVER 3 HOURS (SPECIFY )

2 15-30 MINUTES 2 DONT KNOW/REFUSED 3 31-45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES - 1 HOUR 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 6

MINUTES 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 7

MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 0

MINUTES 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 X

MINUTES Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS Z NO, WILL NOT SHOVEL OUT

11. Please choose one of the following (READ COL. 50 ANSWERS):

1 A A. I would await the return of household commuters to evacuate together. 2 B B. I would evacuate independently and meet X DONT KNOW/REFUSED other household members later.

12. How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COL. 51 1 ONE 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE 0 ZERO (NONE)

X DONT KNOW/REFUSED



SurryPowerStation F21 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

13A. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an COL. 52 emergency. Would you: (READ ANSWERS) 1 A A. SHELTER; or 2 B B. EVACUATE X DONT KNOW/REFUSED 13B. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in COL. 53 an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in 1 A other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you: (READ 2 B ANSWERS)

X DONT KNOW/REFUSED A. SHELTER; or B. EVACUATE 13C. Emergency officials advise you to evacuate in an emergency. Where would you go?: (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COL 54 1 A FAMILY MEMBER OR RELATIVES HOME 2 A PUBLIC ASSEMBLY CENTER OR SHELTER 3 A HOTEL OR MOTEL 4 A SECOND HOME 5 OTHER (specify) 6 WOULD NOT EVACUATE X DONT KNOW REFUSED 14A. What type of pets do you have, and how many of each type? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)

COL 55-59 COL 60: (For species listed in COL 55 list number of pets) 1 DOG COL 61: (For species listed in COL 56 list number of pets) 2 CAT COL 62: (For species listed in COL 57 list number of pets) 3 OTHER SMALL MAMMAL COL 63: (For species listed in COL 58 list number of pets) 4 BIRD COL 64: (For species listed in COL 59 list number of pets) 5 REPTILE 6 HORSE 7 FISH 8 OTHER (specify) 9 NO PETS (GO TO END OF SURVEY)

X DONT KNOW/REFUSED 14B. What would you do with your pet (s) if you had to evacuate? (READ ANSWERS)

COL. 65 1 TAKE IT WITH ME TO A PUBLIC ASSEMBLY CENTER OR SHELTER 2 TAKE IT WITH ME SOMEWHERE ELSE 3 LEAVE IT AT HOME X DONT KNOW/REFUSED Thank you very much.

(TELEPHONE NUMBER CALLED)



SurryPowerStation F22 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

IF REQUESTED:

For additional information, contact your (City or County) Emergency Management Agency during normal business hours.

City/County EMA Phone SurryCounty 7572945205

IsleofWightCounty 7573656308

YorkCounty 7578903600

JamesCityCounty 7575642141

CityofNewportNews 7572692900

CityofWilliamsburg 7572206225

Dominion (800)8148262







SurryPowerStation F23 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

APPENDIXG

TrafficManagementPlan

G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN

NUREG/CR7002 indicates that the existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies

shouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.Thetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfor

theEPZwereprovidedbyeachcity/county.

These plans were reviewed and the TCPs andACPs whichareactivated for theevacuation of

thefullEPZwereidentifiedandmodeledaccordingly.



G.1 TrafficControlPoints

As discussed in Section 9, traffic control points at intersections (which are controlled) are

modeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersectionhasapretimedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,and

the intersection is identified as a traffic control point, the control type was changed to an

actuatedsignalintheDYNEVIIsystem.TableK2providesthecontroltypeandnodenumber

forthosenodeswhicharecontrolled.Iftheexistingcontrolwaschangedduetothepointbeing

atrafficcontrolpoint,thecontroltypeisindicatedasaTCPinTableK2.

Figure G1 maps the TCPs identified in the emergency plans. According to the plans, theses

TCPswouldhaveaminimumof1officerpertrafficcontrolpoint,whowoulddirectevacueesin

theproperdirectionandfacilitatetheflowoftrafficthroughtheintersections.AttheAlertlevel

orabove,trafficbarrierswouldbedistributed,asneeded.

G.2 AccessControlPoints

It is assumed that ACPs will be established within 2 hours of the advisory to evacuate to

discourage through travelers from using major through routes which traverse the EPZ.  As

discussed in Section 3.6, external traffic was only considered on I64, in this analysis.  The

generation of these external trips ceased at 2 hours after the advisory to evacuate in the

simulation.





SurryPowerStation G1 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1



FigureG1.TrafficandAccessControlPointsfortheSPSSite



SurryPowerStation G2 KLDEngineering,P.C.

EvacuationTimeEstimate Rev.1

APPENDIXH

EvacuationRegions