ML13007A122
| ML13007A122 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Davis Besse  |
| Issue date: | 10/31/2012 |
| From: | KLD Engineering, PC |
| To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| References | |
| L-12-441 KLD TR-482, Rev 2 | |
| Download: ML13007A122 (47) | |
Text
APPENDIX D Detailed Description of Study Procedure D. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF STUDY PROCEDURE This appendix describes the activities that were performed to compute Evacuation Time Estimates (ETE). The individual steps of this effort are represented as a flow diagram in Figure D-1. Each numbered step in the description that follows corresponds to the numbered element in the flow diagram.Step 1 The first activity was to obtain Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) boundary information and create a Geographic Information System (GIS) base map. The base map extends beyond the Shadow Region which extends approximately 15 miles (radially) from the power plant location.The base map incorporates the local roadway topology, a suitable topographic background and the EPZ and Subarea boundaries.
Step 2 2010 Census block information was obtained in GIS format. This information was used to estimate the resident population within the EPZ and Shadow Region and to define the spatial distribution and demographic characteristics of the population within the study area. Employee data were estimated using the U.S. Census Bureau's Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics interactive website 1 , and from phone calls to major employers.
Transient data were obtained from local/state emergency management agencies and from phone calls to transient attractions.
Information concerning schools, medical and other types of special facilities within the EPZ were obtained from county and municipal sources, augmented by telephone contacts with the identified facilities.
Step 3 A kickoff meeting was conducted with major stakeholders (state and local emergency managers, on-site and off-site utility emergency managers, local and state law enforcement agencies).
The purpose of the kickoff meeting was to present an overview of the work effort, identify key agency personnel, and indicate the data requirements for the study. Specific requests for information were presented to local emergency managers.
Unique features of the study area were discussed to identify the local concerns that should be addressed by the ETE study.Step 4 Next, a physical survey of the roadway system in the study area was conducted to determine the geometric properties of the highway sections, the channelization of lanes on each section of roadway, whether there are any turn restrictions or special treatment of traffic at intersections, the type and functioning of traffic control devices, gathering signal timings for pre-timed traffic signals, and to make the necessary observations needed to estimate realistic values of roadway capacity.1 http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/
Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station D-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Step 5 A telephone survey of households within the EPZ was conducted to identify household dynamics, trip generation characteristics, and evacuation-related demographic information of the EPZ population.
This information was used to determine important study factors including the average number of evacuating vehicles used by each household, and the time required to perform pre-evacuation mobilization activities.
Step 6 A computerized representation of the physical roadway system, called a link-node analysis network, was developed using the UNITES software.
Once the geometry of the network was completed, the network was calibrated using the information gathered during the road survey (Step 4). Estimates of highway capacity for each link and other link-specific characteristics were introduced to the network description.
Traffic signal timings were input accordingly.
The link-node analysis network was imported into a GIS map. 2010 Census data was overlaid in the map, and origin centroids where trips would be generated during the evacuation process were assigned to appropriate links.Step 7 The EPZ is subdivided into 12 Subareas.
Based on wind direction and speed, Regions (groupings of Subareas that may be advised to evacuate) were developed.
The need for evacuation can occur over a range of seasonal and weather-related conditions.
Scenarios were developed to capture the variation in evacuation demand for different time of day, day of the week, time of year, and weather conditions.
Step 8 The input stream for the DYNEV II model, which integrates the dynamic traffic assignment and distribution model, DTRAD, with the evacuation simulation model, was created for a prototype evacuation case -the evacuation of the entire EPZ for a representative scenario.Step 9 After creating this input stream, the DYNEV II model was executed on the prototype evacuation case to compute evacuating traffic routing patterns consistent with the appropriate NRC guidelines.
DYNEV II contains an extensive suite of data diagnostics which check the completeness and consistency of the input data specified.
The analyst reviews all warning and error messages produced by the model and then corrects the database to create an input stream that properly executes to completion.
The model assigns destinations to all origin centroids consistent with a (general) radial evacuation of the EPZ and Shadow Region. The model produces link and network-wide measures of effectiveness as well as estimates of evacuation time.Step 10 The results generated by the prototype evacuation case are critically examined.
The examination includes observing the animated graphics (using EVAN) produced by DYNEV II and Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station D-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 reviewing the statistics output by the model. This is a labor-intensive activity, requiring the direct participation of skilled engineers who possess the necessary practical experience to interpret the results and to determine the causes of any problems reflected in the results.Essentially, the approach is to identify those bottlenecks in the network that represent locations where congested conditions are pronounced and to identify the cause of this congestion.
This cause can take many forms, either as excess demand due to high rates of trip generation, improper routing, a shortfall of capacity, or as a quantitative flaw in the way the physical system was represented in the input stream. This examination leads to one of two conclusions:
- The results are satisfactory; or" The input stream must be modified accordingly.
This decision requires, of course, the application of the user's judgment and experience based upon the results obtained in previous applications of the model and a comparison of the results of the latest prototype evacuation case iteration with the previous ones. If the results are satisfactory in the opinion of the user, then the process continues with Step 13. Otherwise, proceed to Step 11.Step 11 There are many "treatments" available to the user in resolving apparent problems.
These treatments range from decisions to reroute the traffic by assigning additional evacuation destinations for one or more sources, imposing turn restrictions where they can produce significant improvements in capacity, changing the control treatment at critical intersections so as to provide improved service for one or more movements, or in prescribing specific treatments for channelizing the flow so as to expedite the movement of traffic along major roadway systems. Such "treatments" take the form of modifications to the original prototype evacuation case input stream.Step 12 As noted above, the changes to the input stream must be implemented to reflect the modifications undertaken in Step 11. At the completion of this activity, the process returns to Step 9 where the DYNEV II system is again executed.Step 13 Evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees and special facilities are included in the evacuation analysis.
Fixed routing for transit buses and for school buses, ambulances, and other transit vehicles are introduced into the final prototype evacuation case data set. DYNEV II generates route-specific speeds over time for use in the estimation of evacuation times for the transit dependent and special facility population groups.Step 14 The prototype evacuation case was used as the basis for generating all region and scenario-specific evacuation cases to be simulated.
This process was automated through the UNITES user Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station D-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 interface.
For each specific case, the population to be evacuated, the trip generation distributions, the highway capacity and speeds, and other factors are adjusted to produce a customized case-specific data set.Step 15 All evacuation cases were executed using the DYNEV II model to compute ETE. Once results were available, quality control procedures were used to assure the results were consistent, dynamic routing was reasonable, and traffic congestion/bottlenecks were addressed properly.Step 16 Once vehicular evacuation results were accepted, average travel speeds for transit and special facility routes were used to compute evacuation time estimates for transit-dependent permanent residents, schools, hospitals, and other special facilities.
Step 17 The simulation results were analyzed, tabulated and graphed. The results were then documented, as required by NUREG/CR-7002.
Step 18 Following the completion of documentation activities, the ETE criteria checklist was completed.
An appropriate report reference was provided for each criterion provided in the checklist.
Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate D-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Step 1 Create GIS Base Map 4Step 2 I Gather Census Block and Demographic Data for I Study Area Step 3 Conduct Kickoff Meeting with Stakeholders IStep 4 F Field Survey of Roadways within Study Area Step 5 I Conduct Telephone Survey and Develop Trip Generation Characteristics IStep 6 Create and Calibrate Link-Node Analysis Network I I Step 7 I Develop Evacuation Regions and Scenarios I Step 8 I Create and Debug DYNEV II Input Stream I Step 9Execute DYNEV.II for PrtypEvcainasI Step 16 Use DYNEV II Average Speed Output to Compute ETE for Transit and Special Facility Routes I Figure D-1. Flow Diagram of Activities Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate D-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 APPENDIX E Special Facility Data E. SPECIAL FACILITY DATA The following tables list population information, as of February 2012, for special facilities that are located within the DBNPS EPZ. Special facilities are defined as schools, day care centers, hospitals and other medical care facilities, and correctional facilities.
Transient population data are included in the tables for recreational areas and lodging facilities.
Employment data are included in the tables for major employers.
Each table is grouped by county. The location of the facility is defined by its straight-line distance (miles) and direction (magnetic bearing) from the center point of the plant and by its subarea. Maps identifying the locations of each special facility, recreational area, lodging facility, and major employer are also provided.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table E-1. Schools within the EPZ S 6.8 SSW Oak Harbor High School 11661 West STHY 163 Oak Harbor (419) 898-6216 680 5 6.6 SSW Oak Harbor Middle School 315 North Church St Oak Harbor (419) 898-6216 490 5 7.1 SW Ottawa County Christian Academy 325 S. Toussiant Portage Rd Oak Harbor (419) 898-4002 18 5 6.6 SSW R.C. Waters Elementary School 220 East Ottawa St Oak Harbor (419) 898-6216 450 5 6.7 SSW St. Boniface Catholic Church 215 North Church St Oak Harbor (419) 898-1340 32 9 9.5 SE Bataan Memorial Elementary School 525 West 6th St Port Clinton (419) 732-2102 390 9 9.7 SE Immaculate Conception School 109 West 4th St Port Clinton N/A 110 9 9.8 SE Jefferson Elementary School 430 Jefferson St Port Clinton (419) 732-2102 382 9 10 SE Port Clinton High School 821 Jefferson St Port Clinton (419) 732-2102 584 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure E-1. Schools within the EPZ Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table E-2. Medical Facilities within the EPZ Riverview Healthcare Campus 5 6.1 S 8180 STHY 163 Oak Harbor (419) 898-2851 190 93 26 49 18 j Edgewood Manor 9 10.4 SE Nursing Home 1330 S. Fulton St. Port Clinton (419) 724-5506 1 9 66 19 47 0 9 H.B. Magruder St Port Clir N/A 25 25 6 4 15 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure E-2. Medical Facilities within the EPZ Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table E-3. Major Employers within the EPZ 1 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Carroll Township 0 N/A N/A 499 61%306 14710 West Portage 4 10 SW Brush Wellman River South Road Elmore N/A 219 61% 134 5 5.5 S Adfilm Inc 8035 West Lake Drive Oak Harbor N/A 50 61% 31 265 N Lake Winds 5 5.6 S C. Nelson Manufacturing Pkwy Oak Harbor N/A 29 61% 18 5 6.1 SSW Northern Manufacturing Co. 132 North Railroad St Oak Harbor N/A 61 61% 38 5 6.1 S Riverview Healthcare Campus 8180 STHY 163 Oak Harbor N/A 63 61% 39 280 N Lake Winds 5 5.7 S Signature Label Inc Pkwy Oak Harbor (419) 898-1198 60 80% 48 6 4.2 SE ARES Inc 818 Front St. Port Clinton (419) 635-2175 60 61% 37 6 5.1 SE Camp Perry 1000 Lawrence Rd Port Clinton N/A 6 4.9 SE Fenner Dulop 5225 W Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton (419) 635-2191 80 61% 49 Edgewood Manor Nursing Home Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 I Figure E-3. Major Employers within the EPZ Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table E-4. Campgrounds within the EPZ 1 2.5 WNW Turtle Point campground 1UZ5 West Lakeview blvd UaK HarDor 41V-_2SW-zuui bu iu 1 1.2 NW Wild Wings Campground 6395 N Russell Rd Oak Harbor 419-898-1416 200 100 2 4.2 WSW Camp Sabroske 4405 North Toussaint Rd Oak Harbor N/A 200 100 5 6.5 SSW Paradise Acres Family Campground 4225 North River Rd Oak Harbor 419-898-6411 357 179 7 5.8 S Chet's Place Campground
& RV 7154 West Harbor Rd Port Clinton N/A 136 68 7 6.3 SSE I Portageview Campground 265 South Meacham Rd Port Clinton 419-635-4479 160 80 7 6.9 SE River Retreat Campground
& Marina 3830 West Harbor Rd Port Clinton 419-635-2472 104 52 7 5.8 5 Riverbend Campground 749 West Harbor Rd Port Clinton 419-898-3402 40 15 7 7.9 SE Sunset Shore Campground 1745 West Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton 419-734-5186 50 25 8 8.9 SE Golden Eye Family Campground 1030 Helendale Ln Port Clinton 419-341-2118 15 5 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure E-4. Campgrounds within the EPZ Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table E-5. Recreational Facilities within the EPZ 5 7.5 SSW Oak Harbor bolt Club 1u433 west oak Harbor St Kd OaK Harbor 419-998-149J 5 5.9 S Ottawa County Fairgrounds 7870 STHY 163 Oak Harbor 419-898-1971 200 100 9 9.5 SE Jet Express 3 Monroe St Port Clinton N/A 5,000 1,500 9 10.2 SE Port Clinton City Beach 1100 E. Perry St Port Clinton (419) 734-5522 100 50 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure E-5. Recreational Facilities within the EPZ Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table E-6. Marinas within the EPZ 1 1 S Toussaint River Marina 4685 North Toussaint South Rd Oak Harbor 330-819-1558 50 25 1 2.4 WNW Turtle Point Marina 10275 West Lakeview Blvd Oak Harbor 419-898-2003 100 50 1 1.1 WNW Wild Wings Marina 6395 N Russell Rd Oak Harbor 419-898-1416 200 100 7 7.9 SE Lakefront Marina 1805 West Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton 419-734-5576 200 70 River Retreat Campground
&7 6.9 SE Marina 3830 West Harbor Rd Port Clinton 419-635-2472 See Table E-4 7 7.9 SE Whitecap Motel & Marina 2186 West Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton 419-734-3816 See Table E-6 8 8.8 SE Portage River Marina Camp 204 Rose Ln Port Clinton N/A 80 40 9 9.6 SE Angel Bay Marina 120 Jefferson St Port Clinton 419-734-3803 30 15 9 9.2 SE Brands Marina 315 West Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton 419-734-9753 58 31 9 8.8 SE Clinton Reef Club 800 Clinton Reef Dr Port Clinton 419-734-6139 60 30 9 8.9 SE Coastal Marine 537 West Shorelake Dr Port Clinton 877-362-5243 70 70 9 9.3 SE Drawbridge Marina 242 West Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton 419-734-4422 200 70 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure E-6. Marinas within the EPZ Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table E-7. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ 6 3.2 SSE ANJ LodRing 7697 W Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton 419-635-4436 12 8 Camp Perry Lodging and Conference 6 5.2 SE Center 1000 Lawrence Road Port Clinton 888-889-7010 414 183 7 8.7 SE Clinton Reef Club 800 Clinton Reef Drive Port Clinton 419-732-1111 184 92 7 7.7 SE Whitecap Motel & Marina 2186 West Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton 419-734-6139 26 13 8 8.0 SSE Erie Island Resort & Marina 4495 West Darr-Hopfinger Rd Port Clinton 419-734-9270 600 197 8 9.0 SSE Fowl Foolers Lodge 4942 Fremont Rd Port Clinton 419-732-2147 12 6 9 9.6 SE Americas Best Value Inn 121 East Perry St Port Clinton 419-734-2101 40 20 9 9.9 SE Bashful Mermaid B & B 503 East 2nd Street Port Clinton 419-734-3200 6 3 9 9.8 SE Bay Haven Inn Bed Breakfast 426 East Perry Street Port Clinton 419-341-5260 6 3 9 9.3 SE Beachfront Resorts 252 West Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton 419-732-6684 30 20 9 10.5 ESE Best Western Port Clinton 1734 East Perry St Port Clinton 419-734-2274 70 35 9 10.5 ESE Budget Inn & Suites 1735 East Perry St Port Clinton 419-734-5633 244 122 9 10.4 ESE Comfort Inn 1723 East Perry St Port Clinton 419-732-2929 117 59 9 9.3 SE Commodore Perry Inn & Suites 255 West Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton 419-732-2645 180 120 9 9.0 SE Harborside Condominiums 511 W Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton 419-732-1111 247 165 9 9.5 SE Island House Resort Hotel 102 Madison St Port Clinton 419-734-0100 114 76 9 9.4 SE Lake Erie Vacation Condos 220 W Lakeshore Dr Port Clinton 419-732-1111 765 191 9 9.6 SE Lakeland Motel 121 East Perry Street Port Clinton 419-734-2101 82 31 9 9.6 SE Our Guest Inn & Suites 220 East Perry St Port Clinton 419-734-7111 200 100 9 10.6 ESE Portside Inn 1811 East Perry St Port Clinton 419-734-0769 244 122 9 10.6 ESE Shores of Port Clinton 1801 East Perry St Port Clinton 419-734-5311 325 130 9 10.7 ESE Suite Marie's Lake Erie Retreat 125 Buckeye Blvd Port Clinton 419-341-4424 16 6 9 10.4 ESE Super 8 Port Clinton 1704 East Perry St Port Clinton 419-734-4446 54 27 9 10.7 ESE The Shores Condominiums 1801 East Perry Street Port Clinton 419-732-1111 92 31 9 10.4 ESE Village at Waters Edge Waters Edge Dr Port Clinton 419-581-0048 149 43 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure E-7. Lodging Facilities within the EPZ Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Table E-8. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Figure E-8. Correctional Facilities within the EPZ Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate E-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 APPENDIX F Telephone Survey F. TELEPHONE SURVEY F.1 Introduction The development of evacuation time estimates for the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) of the Davis-Besse Site requires the identification of travel patterns, car ownership and household size of the population within the EPZ. While demographic information can be obtained from Census data, the use of this data has several limitations when applied to emergency planning.
First, the Census data do not encompass the range of information needed to identify the time required for preliminary activities (mobilization) that must be undertaken prior to evacuating the area.Secondly, Census data do not contain attitudinal responses needed from the population of the EPZ which are needed to accurately represent the anticipated behavioral characteristics of the evacuating populace.These gaps are addressed by conducting a telephone survey of a representative sample of the EPZ population.
The survey is designed to elicit information from the public concerning family demographics and estimates of response times to well defined events. The design of the survey includes a limited number of questions of the form "What would you do if ...?" and other questions regarding activities with which the respondent is familiar ("How long does it take you to ...?") that have direct relevance to evacuation planning.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 F.2 Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan Attachment A to this Appendix presents the final survey instrument used in this study. A draft of the instrument was submitted to stakeholders for comment. Comments were received and the survey instrument was modified accordingly, prior to conducting the survey.Following the completion of the instrument, a sampling plan was developed.
A sample size of approximately 600 completed survey forms yields results with a sampling error of +/-4% at the 95% confidence level. The sample must be drawn from the EPZ population.
Consequently, a list of zip codes in the EPZ was developed using GIS software.
This list is shown in Table F-1. Along with each zip code, an estimate of the population and number of households in each area was determined by overlaying Census data and the EPZ boundary, again using GIS software.
The proportional number of desired completed survey interviews for each area was identified, as shown in Table F-1.The completed survey adhered to the sampling plan.Table F-1. Davis-Besse Telephone Survey Sampling Plan 43412 1,167 442 32 43416 74 26 2 43432 1,387 510 36 43445 455 177 13 43449 8,526 3,437 245 43452 8,794 3,819 272 Totals: 20,403 8,411 600 Average Household Size: 2.43 Total Sample Required:
600 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 F.3 Survey Results The results of the survey fall into two categories.
First, the household demographics of the area can be identified.
Demographic information includes such factors as household size, automobile ownership, and automobile availability.
The distributions of the time to perform certain pre-evacuation activities are the second category of survey results. These data are processed to develop the trip generation distributions used in the evacuation modeling effort, as discussed in Section 5.A review of the survey instrument reveals that several questions have a "don't know" (DK) or"refused" entry for a response.
It is accepted practice in conducting surveys of this type to accept the answers of a respondent who offers a DK response for a few questions or who refuses to answer a few questions.
To address the issue of occasional DK/refused responses from a large sample, the practice is to assume that the distribution of these responses is the same as the underlying distribution of the positive responses.
In effect, the DK/refused responses are ignored and the distributions are based upon the positive data that is acquired.F.3.1 Household Demographic Results Household Size Figure F-1 presents the distribution of household size within the EPZ. The average household surveyed contains 2.22 people. The 2010 Census estimated the household size in all of Ottawa and Lucas County at 2.32 persons (41,428 persons in 17,861 households) and 2.18 persons (441,815 persons in 202,630 households), respectively.
A majority of the EPZ residents live in Ottawa County, and the average household size from the telephone survey is within +/-4% (1.8%)of the census data for Ottawa County. The reasonable agreement between the average household size obtained from the survey and from the Census is an indication of the reliability of the survey. Note that the average household size value contained in Table F-1 was a sampling plan estimate based on the 2000 Census data (at the time of the survey, 2010 Census data was not available) and was not used in the ETE study.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station F-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Davis-Besse Household Size 60%50%40%CL S30%0 20%10%0%1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+Household Size Figure F-1. Household Size in the EPZ Automobile Ownership The average number of automobiles available per household in the EPZ is 1.95. Approximately
2.5 percent
of households do not have access to an automobile.
The distribution of automobile ownership is presented in Figure F-2. Figure F-3 and Figure F-4 present the automobile availability by household size. The majority of households without access to a car are single person households.
As expected, nearly all households of 2 or more people have access to at least one vehicle.Davis-Besse Vehicle Availability 60%50%40%C 30%CL 20%10%0%0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+Number of Vehicles Figure F-2. Household Vehicle Availability F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 1-5 Person Households 1Person *2 People *3 People M4 People *5 People 100%#A 80%0 160%0 x 40%20%0%0 1 2 3 4 5 Vehicles 6 7 8 9+Figure F-3. Vehicle Availability
-1 to 5 Person Households Distribution of Vehicles by HH Size 6-9+ Person Households S6 People *7 People 18 People *9+ People 100%80%0 1 60%'A z 40%20%0%IJ JU 1 2 3 4 5 6 Vehicles 7 8 9 10 Figure F-4. Vehicle Availability
-6 to 9+ Person Households Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Ridesharing The overwhelming proportion of the households surveyed responded that they would share a ride with a neighbor, relative, or friend if a car was not available to them when asked to evacuate.
Figure F-5 presents this response.Davis-Besse Rideshare with Neighbor/Friend 4-1 C 0 a-100%80%60%40%20%0%Yes No Figure F-5. Household Ridesharing Preference Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Commuters Figure F-6 presents the distribution of the number of commuters in each household.
Commuters are defined as household members who travel to work or college on a daily basis.The data show an average of 0.83 commuters in each household in the EPZ.Davis-Besse Commuters 60%50%:2 0 30%20%10%0%0 1 2 3 4+Number of Commuters Figure F-6. Commuters in Households in the EPZ Commuter Travel Modes Figure F-7 presents the mode of travel that commuters use on a daily basis. The vast majority of commuters use their private automobiles to travel to work. The data shows an average of 1.05 employees per vehicle, assuming 2 people per vehicle -on average -for carpools.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Davis-Besse Travel Mode to Work 100% 92.5%'A 80%0 60%0 40%0 a. 2o%__0%49%Rail Bus Walk/Bike Drive Alone Carpool (2+)Travel Mode Figure F-7. Modes of Travel in the EPZ F.3.2 Evacuation Response Several questions were asked to gauge the population's response to an emergency.
These are now discussed: "How many of the vehicles would your household use during an evacuation?" The response is shown in Figure F-8. On average, evacuating households would use 1.28 vehicles.'Would your family await the return of other family members prior to evacuating the area?" Of the survey participants who responded, 44 percent said they would await the return of other family members before evacuating and 56 percent indicated that they would not await the return of other family members.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Vehicles Used for Evacuation 100%80%0 0 40%20%0%0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9+Number of Vehicles Figure F-8. Number of Vehicles Used for Evacuation"Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an emergency.
Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information regarding compliance with instructions to shelter in place. The results indicate that 83 percent of households who are advised to shelter in place would do so; the remaining 17 percent would choose to evacuate the area. Note, the baseline ETE study assumes 20 percent of households will not comply with the shelter advisory, as per Section 2.5.2 of NUREG/CR-7002.
Thus, the data obtained above is in good agreement with the federal guidance."Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you?" This question is designed to elicit information specifically related to the possibility of a staged evacuation.
That is, asking a population to shelter in place now and then to evacuate after a specified period of time. Results indicate that 66 percent of households would follow instructions and delay the start of evacuation until so advised, while the balance of 34 percent would choose to begin evacuating immediately.
Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 F.3.3 Time Distribution Results The survey asked several questions about the amount of time it takes to perform certain pre-evacuation activities.
These activities involve actions taken by residents during the course of their day-to-day lives. Thus, the answers fall within the realm of the responder's experience.
The mobilization distributions provided below are the result of having applied the analysis described in Section 5.4.1 on the component activities of the mobilization."How long does it take the commuter to complete preparation for leaving work?" presents the cumulative distribution; in all cases, the activity is completed within Ninety percent can leave within 30 minutes.Figure F-9 one hour.Time to Prepare to Leave Work 100%80%60%°J 40%0 20%0%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Preparation Time (min)Figure F-9. Time Required to Prepare to Leave Work/School Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 "How long would it take the commuter to travel home?" Figure F-10 presents the work to home travel time for the EPZ. About 85 percent of commuters can arrive home within 30 minutes of leaving work; all within 70 minutes.Work to Home Travel 0 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 10 20 30 40 50 6 70 0 Travel Time (min)60 70 80 Figure F-10. Work to Home Travel Time Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 "How long would it take the family to pack clothing, secure the house, and load the car?" Figure F-11 presents the time required to prepare for leaving on an evacuation trip. In many ways this activity mimics a family's preparation for a short holiday or weekend away from home. Hence, the responses represent the experience of the responder in performing similar activities.
The distribution shown in Figure F-11 has a long "tail." About 55 percent of households can be ready to leave home within 30 minutes; the remaining households require up to an additional two and a half hours.Time to Prepare to Leave Home"a 0 02 100%80%60%40%20%0%0 30 60 90 120 Preparation Time (min)150 180 Figure F-11. Time to Prepare Home for Evacuation Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 "How long would it take you to clear 6 to 8 inches of snow from your driveway?" During adverse, snowy weather conditions, an additional activity must be performed before residents can depart on the evacuation trip. Although snow scenarios assume that the roads and highways have been plowed and are passable (albeit at lower speeds and capacities), it may be necessary to clear a private driveway prior to leaving the home so that the vehicle can access the street. Figure F-12 presents the time distribution for removing 6 to 8 inches of snow from a driveway.
The time distribution for clearing the driveway has a long tail; about 90 percent of driveways are passable within 75 minutes. The last driveway is cleared two hours and fifteen minutes after the start of this activity.
Note, those respondents (38%) who answered that they would not take time to clear their driveway were assumed to be ready immediately at the start of this activity.
Essentially they would drive through the snow on the driveway to access the roadway and begin their evacuation trip.Time to Shovel Snow 100%80%0 60%Z 40%20%0%0 15 30 45 60 75 90 105 120 135 Time (min)Figure F-12. Time to Clear Driveway of 6"-8" of Snow F.4 Conclusions The telephone survey provides valuable, relevant data associated with the EPZ population, which have been used to quantify demographics specific to the EPZ, and "mobilization time" which can influence evacuation time estimates.
Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 ATTACHMENT A Telephone Survey Instrument Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 Telephone Survey Instrument Hello, my name is and I'm working on a survey for Ottawa and Lucas County to identify local behavior during emergency situations.
This information will be used for emergency planning and will be shared with local officials to enhance emergency response plans in your area for all hazards; Emergency planning for some hazards may require evacuation.
Your responses will greatly contribute to local emergency preparedness.
I will not ask for your name.COL. 1 Unused COL. 2 Unused COL. 3 Unused COL. 4 Unused COL. 5 Unused Sex COL. 8 1 Male 2 Female INTERVIEWER:
ASK TO SPEAK TO THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD OR THE SPOUSE OF THE HEAD OF HOUSEHOLD.(Terminate call if not a residence.)
DO NOT ASK: 1A. Record area code. To Be Determined COL. 9-11 lB. Record exchange number. To Be Determined COL. 12-14 2. What is your home zip code? COL. 15-19 3A. In total, how many cars, or other vehicles are COL. 20 SKIP TO usually available to the household?
1 ONE Q. 4 (DO NOT READ ANSWERS) 2 TWO Q. 4 3 THREE Q.4 4 FOUR Q. 4 5 FIVE Q. 4 6 SIX Q. 4 7 SEVEN Q.4 8 EIGHT Q. 4 9 NINE OR MORE Q. 4 0 ZERO (NONE) Q. 3B X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 3B 3B. In an emergency, could you get a ride out of the COL. 21 area with a neighbor or friend? 1 YES 2 NO X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2
- 4. How many people usually live in this household?(DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COL. 22 1 ONE 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE COL. 23 0 TEN 1 ELEVEN 2 TWELVE 3 THIRTEEN 4 FOURTEEN 5 FIFTENN 6 SIXTEEN 7 SEVENTEEN 8 EIGHTEEN 9 NINETEEN OR MORE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED
- 5. How many adults in the household commute to a COL. 24 SKIP TO job, or to college on a daily basis? 0 ZERO Q. 9 1 ONE Q. 6 2 TWO Q. 6 3 THREE Q. 6 4 FOUR OR MORE Q. 6 5 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Q. 9 INTERVIEWER:
For each person identified in Question 5, ask Questions 6, 7, and 8.6. Thinking about commuter #1, how does that person usually travel to work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER)Commuter #1 Commuter #2 Commuter #3 Commuter #4 COL. 25 COL. 26 COL. 27 COL. 28 Rail 1 1 1 1 Bus 2 2 2 2 Walk/Bicycle 3 3 3 3 Drive Alone 4 4 4 4 Carpool-2 or more people 5 5 5 5 Don't know/Refused 6 6 6 6 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2
- 7. How much time on average, would it take Commuter #1 to travel home from work or college? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 29 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 30 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ )9 0 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED COL. 31 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 32 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ )9 0 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 33 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 34 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY__
)9 0 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED COL. 35 1 2 3 5 MINUTES OR LESS 6-10 MINUTES 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 36 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND I HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ )9 0 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED F-18 KID Engineering, P.C.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2
- 8. Approximately how much time does it take Commuter #1 to complete preparation for leaving work or college prior to starting the trip home? (REPEAT QUESTION FOR EACH COMMUTER) (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COMMUTER #1 COMMUTER #2 COL. 37 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 38 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56- 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND I HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND I HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ .)9 0 X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED COL. 39 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 40 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND I HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ .)9 0 X DON'T KNOW /REFUSED Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 COMMUTER #3 COMMUTER #4 COL. 41 1 5 MINUTES OR LESS 2 6-10 MINUTES 3 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 42 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56- 1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT 4 LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 7 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY __ )COL. 43 1 2 3 5 MINUTES OR LESS 6-10 MINUTES 11-15 MINUTES 4 16-20 MINUTES 5 21-25 MINUTES 6 26-30 MINUTES 7 31-35 MINUTES 8 36-40 MINUTES 9 41-45 MINUTES COL. 44 1 46-50 MINUTES 2 51-55 MINUTES 3 56 -1 HOUR OVER 1 HOUR, BUT LESS THAN 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 16 5 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 31 6 MINUTES AND 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES BETWEEN 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES AND 2 HOURS 9 0 x 8 9 0 x OVER 2 HOURS (SPECIFY DON'TKNOW/REF___S)
DON'T KNOW /REFUSED DON'T KNOW /REFUSED 9. If you were advised by local authorities to evacuate, how much time would it take the household to pack clothing, medications, secure the house, load the car, and complete preparations prior to evacuating the area? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COL. 45 COL. 46 1 LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 1 3 HOURS TO 3 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 15-30 MINUTES 2 3 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 30 MINUTES 3 31-45 MINUTES 3 3 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS 45 MINUTES 4 46 MINUTES- 1 HOUR 4 3 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 5 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 5 4 HOURS TO 4 HOURS 15 MINUTES 6 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 6 4 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 30 MINUTES 7 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 7 4 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS 45 MINUTES 8 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 8 4 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 5 HOURS 9 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 9 5 HOURS TO 5 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 0 5 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 6 HOURS X 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES X OVER 6 HOURS (SPECIFY __ )Y 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS COL. 47 1 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 10 If there is 6-8" of snow on your driveway or curb, would you need to shovel out to evacuate?
If yes, how much time, on average would it take you to clear the 6-8" of snow to move the car from the driveway or curb to begin the evacuation trip? Assume the roads are passable. (DO NOT READ RESPONSES) 48 COL. 49 COL.1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 X Y Z LESS THAN 15 MINUTES 15-30 MINUTES 31-45 MINUTES 46 MINUTES -1 HOUR 1 HOUR TO 1 HOUR 15 MINUTES 1 HOUR 16 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 30 MINUTES 1 HOUR 31 MINUTES TO 1 HOUR 45 MINUTES 1 HOUR 46 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 2 HOURS TO 2 HOURS 15 MINUTES 2 HOURS 16 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 30 MINUTES 2 HOURS 31 MINUTES TO 2 HOURS 45 MINUTES 2 HOURS 46 MINUTES TO 3 HOURS NO, WILL NOT SHOVEL OUT 1 OVER 3 HOURS (SPECIFY __2 DON'T KNOW/REFUSED
- 11. Please choose one of the following (READ COL. 50 ANSWERS):
1 A A. I would await the return of household commuters to evacuate together.
2 B B. I would evacuate independently and meet X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED other household members later.12. How many vehicles would your household use during an evacuation? (DO NOT READ ANSWERS)COL. 51 1 ONE 2 TWO 3 THREE 4 FOUR 5 FIVE 6 SIX 7 SEVEN 8 EIGHT 9 NINE OR MORE 0 ZERO (NONE)X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 13A. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home in an COL. 52 emergency.
Would you: (READ ANSWERS) 1 A A. SHELTER;or 2 B B. EVACUATE X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED 13B. Emergency officials advise you to take shelter at home now in COL. 53 an emergency and possibly evacuate later while people in other areas are advised to evacuate now. Would you: (READ ANSWERS)A. SHELTER; or B. EVACUATE I A 2 B X DON'T KNOW/REFUSED Thank you very much.(TELEPHONE NUMBER CALLED)IF REQUESTED:
For additional information, contact your County Emergency Management Agency during normal business hours.County EMA Phone Ottawa 419.734.6900 Lucas 419.213.6503 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate F-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2