ML13007A114

Kld TR-482, Rev. 2, Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Development of Evacuation Time Estimates, Part 8 of 8

ML13007A114
Person / Time
Site:	Davis Besse
Issue date:	10/31/2012
From:	KLD Engineering, PC
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
L-12-441 KLD TR-482, Rev 2
Download: ML13007A114 (26)

Text

APPENDIX L Subarea Boundaries L. SUBAREA BOUNDARIES Subarea 1 County: Ottawa Defined as the area within the following boundary:

Carroll Township east of State Route 19 and north of Toussaint East Road.Subarea 2 County: Ottawa Defined as the area within the following boundary:

Carroll Township west of State Route 19 and south of Toussaint East Road.Subarea 3 County: Ottawa Defined as the area within the following boundary:

Benton Township Subarea 4 County: Ottawa Defined as the area within the following boundary:

Harris Township east of State Route 590.Subarea 5 County: Ottawa Defined as the area within the following boundary:

Salem Township Subarea 6 County: Ottawa Defined as the area within the following boundary:

Erie Township north of Fritchie Road and west of Tettau Road including the Erie Industrial Park and Camp Perry.Subarea 7 County: Ottawa Defined as the area within the following boundary:

Erie Township south of Fritchie Road and east of Tettau Road.Subarea 8 County: Ottawa Defined as the area within the following boundary:

Bay Township Subarea 9 County: Ottawa Defined as the area within the following boundary:

City of Port Clinton and areas of Portage Township that are north of the State Route 2 bypass and west of the State Route 163 and State Route 2 exchange.Subarea 10 County: Lucas & Ottawa Defined as the area within the following boundary:

Magee Marsh Wildlife Area, and the Ottawa National Wildlife Refuge.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station L-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 Subarea 11 County: Lucas Defined as the area within the following boundary:

Jerusalem Township east of a line formed by Elliston Trowbridge Road to State Route 2, then west along State Route 2 to the Reno Side Cut Ditch, also known as Cooley Canal, then north following the Reno Side Cut Ditch to Lake Erie.County: Lucas & Ottawa Defined as the area within the following boundary:

The portion of Lake Erie within a 10-mile radius of the plant.Subarea 12 L-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate I.-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 APPENDIX M Evacuation Sensitivity Studies M. EVACUATION SENSITIVITY STUDIES This appendix presents the results of a series of sensitivity analyses.

These analyses are designed to identify the sensitivity of the Evacuation Time Estimates to changes in some base evacuation conditions.

M.1 Effect of Changes in Trip Generation Times A sensitivity study was performed to determine whether changes in the estimated trip generation time have an effect upon the evacuation time estimate (ETE) for the entire EPZ.Specifically, if the tail of the mobilization distribution were truncated (i.e., if those who responded most slowly to the Advisory to Evacuate, could be persuaded to respond much more rapidly), how would the ETE be affected?

The case considered was Scenario 6, Region 3; a winter, midweek, midday, good weather evacuation of the entire EPZ. Table M-1 presents the results of this study.Table M-1. Evacuation Time Estimates for Trip Generation Sensitivity Study Tri Evcato Tim Esimt for Enie 2 Hours 30 Minutes 1 2:10 1 3:00 3 Hours 30 Minutes 2:10 3:40 4 Hours 30 Minutes (Base) 2:15 4:45 The results confirm the importance of accurately estimating the trip generation (mobilization) times. The evacuation time estimates (ETE) for the 100th percentile closely mirror the values for the time the last evacuation trip is generated.

In contrast, the 9 0 th percentile ETE is very insensitive to truncating the tail of the mobilization time distribution.

As indicated in Section 7.2, there is limited congestion within the EPZ after the Advisory to Evacuate.

The results indicate that programs to educate the public and encourage them toward faster responses for a radiological emergency, translates into shorter ETE at the 1 0 0 th percentile.

The results also justify the guidance to employ the [stable] 9 0 th percentile ETE for protective action recommendation (PAR) decision-making Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station M-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 M.2 Effect of Changes in The Number Of People In The Shadow Region Population Who Relocate A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effects on ETE of changes in the percentage of people who decide to relocate from the Shadow Region. The case considered was Scenario 6, Region 3; a winter, midweek, midday, good weather evacuation for the entire EPZ. The movement of people in the Shadow Region has the potential to impede vehicles evacuating from an Evacuation Region within the EPZ. Refer to Section 7.1 for additional information on population within the shadow region.Table M-2 presents the evacuation time estimates for each of these cases. The results show that the ETE is insensitive to shadow evacuation.

Tripling the shadow percentage does not affect the ETE at either percentile.

Reducing the shadow evacuation percentage to 15 percent, reflecting the telephone survey results, or to zero percent has no effect on ETE.Table M-2. Evacuation Time Estimates for Shadow Sensitivity Study* ..... .*0 0 2:15 4:45 15 1,635 2:15 4:45 20 (Base) 2,331 2:15 4:45 60 6,539 2:15 4:45 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate M-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 M.3 Effect of Changes in EPZ Resident Population A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effect on ETE of changes in the resident population within the EPZ. As population in the EPZ changes over time, the time required to evacuate the public may increase, decrease, or remain the same. Since the ETE is related to the demand to capacity ratio present within the EPZ, changes in population will cause the demand side of the equation to rise or fall. The sensitivity study was conducted using the following planning assumptions:

1. The change in population within the EPZ was treated parametrically.

The percent population change was varied between +/-30%. Changes in population were applied to both the EPZ area and to the shadow region.2. The transportation infrastructure remained fixed; the presence of new roads or highway capacity improvements was not considered.

3. The study was performed for three regions: 2-mile, 5-mile, and full EPZ.4. The scenario which yielded the highest ETE values was selected as the case considered in the sensitivity study.Table M-3 presents the results of the sensitivity study. Note that the ETE values for the 9 0 th and 1 0 0 th percentiles do not change significantly over the range of population changes considered.

The existing highway network has sufficient reserve capacity to accommodate a reasonable population increase.

Reducing population has no effect because the ETE values reflect the trip generation distribution which is essentially independent of population.

The base population is the sum of resident population from Table 3-1 and 20% of the population in the Shadow Region from Table 3-3: 20,403 + (20% x 18,925) = 24,188.Table M-3. ETE Variation with Population Change Resident~

~ ~ ~~~~ &.ouain hnePplainCag Region Population Change I I Population Change I Base 1 10% 20% 1 30% Base I -10% T -20% 1 -30%R01 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:10 R02 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:15 2:10 R03 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:25 2:20 Region Population Change Population Change Base 10% 20% 30% Base -10% -20% -30%R01 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 4:30 R02 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 4:35 R03 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 4:45 1 4:45 4:45 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station M-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 2 M.4 Effects on the ETE of Flooding along State Route 19 A sensitivity study was conducted to determine the effects on ETE if State Route 19 was flooded south of Oak Harbor. Muddy Creek historically floods after heavy rainfall and impacts State Route 19 just south of the Ottawa/Sandusky County border. Vehicles were prohibited from using State Route 19 to exit Oak Harbor in this sensitivity study. Evacuees were re-routed along State Routes 105 and 163 to the west and State Route 163 to the east in order to bypass the flooded section of State Route 19. The case considered was Scenario 6, Region 3; a winter, midweek, midday, good weather evacuation of the entire EPZ.Traffic diverted to the west along State Routes 105 and 163 travels through Genoa, Elmore or Lindsey (all outside the EPZ). Traffic diverted to the east along State Route 163 travels toward Port Clinton. Any additional traffic congestion at the bottlenecks in these communities created by the diversion did not have an impact on the 9 0 th or 1 0 0 th percentile ETE (see Table M-4). As described in Section 7.3, all congestion clears well before the trip generation time.Table M-4. Evacuation Time Estimates for the Flooding of State Route 19.Cae(cnro6 0" eretl 0,hPretl Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate M-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 APPENDIX N ETE Criteria Checklist N. ETE CRITERIA CHECKLIST Table N-1. ETE Review Criteria Checklist R Reie Crtei Crtro Addese Coment 1.0 Introduction

a. The emergency planning zone (EPZ) and surrounding area Yes Section 1 should be described.

b. A map snoula be included that iaentmes primary features of the site, including major roadways, significant topographical features, boundaries of counties, and population centers within the EPZ.Yes F-igures 1-1, 3-1 c. A comparison of the current and previous ETE should be Yes Table 1-3 provided and includes similar information as identified in Table 1-1, "ETE Comparison," of NUREG/CR-7002.

1.1 Approach

a. A discussion of the approach and level of detail obtained Yes Section 1.3 during the field survey of the roadway network should be provided.b. Sources of demographic data for schools, special facilities, Yes Sections 2.1, 3, 8 large employers, and special events should be identified.

c. Discussion should be presented on use of traffic control Yes Sections 1.3, 2.2, 9; Appendix G plans in the analysis.d. Traffic simulation models used for the analyses should be Yes Section 1.3, Table 1-3, Appendix B, identified by name and version. Appendix C Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 NR Reie Crtei Crteio Addese Comment e. Methods used to address data uncertainties should be described.

Yes Section 3 -avoid double counting Section 5, Appendix F -4% sampling error at 95% confidence interval for telephone survey 1.2 Assumptions

a. The planning basis for the ETE includes the assumption Yes Section 2.3 -Assumption 1 that the evacuation should be ordered promptly and no Section 5.1 early protective actions have been implemented.

b. Assumptions consistent with Table 1-2, "General Yes Sections 2.2, 2.3 Assumptions," of NUREG/CR-7002 should be provided and include the basis to support their use.1.3 Scenario Development

a. The ten scenarios in Table 1-3, Evacuation Scenarios, Yes Tables 2-1, 6-2 should be developed for the ETE analysis, or a reason should be provided for use of other scenarios.

1.3.1 Staged

Evacuation

a. A discussion should be provided on the approach used in Yes Sections 5.4.2, 7.2 development of a staged evacuation.

1.4 Evacuation

Planning Areas a. A map of EPZ with emergency response planning areas Yes Figure 6-1 (ERPAs) should be included.b. A table should be provided identifying the ERPAs Yes Tables 6-1, 7-5, H-i considered for each ETE calculation by downwind direction in each sector.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

..Reie Crtei Crtro Addese Comment c. A table similar to Table 1-4, "Evacuation Areas for a Staged Evacuation Keyhole," of NUREG/CR-7002 should be provided and includes the complete evacuation of the 2, 5, and 10 mile areas and for the 2 mile area/5 mile keyhole evacuations.

Yes Tables 6-1, 7-5, H-1 2.0 Demand Estimation

a. Demand estimation should be developed for the four Yes Permanent residents, employees, population groups, including permanent residents of the transients

-Section 3, Appendix E EPZ, transients, special facilities, and schools. Special facilities, schools -Section 8, Appendix E 2.1 Permanent Residents and Transient Population

a. The US Census should be the source of the population Yes Section 3.1 values, or another credible source should be provided.b. Population values should be adjusted as necessary for Yes 2010 used as the base year for analysis growth to reflect population estimates to the year of the ETE.c. A sector diagram should be included, similar to Figure 2-1, Yes Figure 3-2"Population by Sector," of NUREG/CR-7002, showing the population distribution for permanent residents.

2.1.1 Permanent

Residents with Vehicles a. The persons per vehicle value should be between 1 and 2 Yes 1.73 persons per vehicle based on or justification should be provided for other values, telephone survey results -see Table 1-3 b. Major employers should be listed. Yes Appendix E -Table E-3 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 R Reie Crtei Crtro Addesse Coment 2.1.2 Transient Population

a. A list of facilities which attract transient populations Yes Sections 3.3, 3.4, Appendix E should be included, and peak and average attendance for these facilities should be listed. The source of information used to develop attendance values should be provided.b. The average population during the season should be used, Yes Tables 3-4, 3-5 and Appendix E itemize the itemized and totaled for each scenario.

transient population and employee estimates.

These estimates are multiplied by the scenario specific percentages provided in Table 6-3 to estimate transient population by scenario.c. The percent of permanent residents assumed to be at Yes Sections 3.3, 3.4 facilities should be estimated.

d. The number of people per vehicle should be provided.

Yes Sections 3.3, 3.4 Numbers may vary by scenario, and if so, discussion on why values vary should be provided.e. A sector diagram should be included, similar to Figure 2-1 Yes Figure 3-6 -transients of NUREG/CR-7002, showing the population distribution Figure 3-8 -employees for the transient population.

2.2 Transit

Dependent Permanent Residents a. The methodology used to determine the number of transit Yes Section 8.1, Table 8-1 dependent residents should be discussed.

b. Transportation resources needed to evacuate this group Yes Section 8.1, Tables 8-5, 8-10 should be quantified.

c. The county/local evacuation plans for transit dependent Yes Sections 8.1, 8.4 residents should be used in the analysis.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-4 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 NR Reie Crtei Crtro Adrese Comments d. The methodology used to determine the number of people with disabilities and those with access and functional needs who may need assistance and do not reside in special facilities should be provided.

Data from local/county registration programs should be used in the estimate, but should not be the only set of data.Yes Section 8.5 e. Capacities should be provided for all types of Yes Section 2.3 -Assumption 10 transportation resources.

Bus seating capacity of 50% Sections 3.5, 8.1, 8.2, 8.3 should be used or justification should be provided for higher values.f. An estimate of this population should be provided and Yes Table 8-1 -transit dependents information should be provided that the existing Section 8.5 -special needs registration programs were used in developing the estimate.g. A summary table of the total number of buses, Yes Section 8.4 -page 8-6 ambulances, or other transport needed to support Table 8-5 evacuation should be provided and the quantification of resources should be detailed enough to assure double counting has not occurred.2.3 Special Facility Residents a. A list of special facilities, including the type of facility, Yes Appendix E, Tables E-1, E-2, E-8 -list location, and average population should be provided, facilities, type, location, and population Special facility staff should be included in the total special Tables 8-2, 8-4, Section 8.6 -population facility population.

data b. A discussion should be provided on how special facility Yes Sections 8.2, 8.3, 8.6 data was obtained.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

.R eve Crtei Crtro Addese Comments c. The number of wheelchair and bed-bound individuals should be provided.Yes Tables 8-4, E-2 d. An estimate of the number and capacity of vehicles Yes Section 8.3 needed to support the evacuation of the facility should be Tables 8-4, 8-5 provided.e. The logistics for mobilizing specially trained staff (e.g., Yes Sections 8.4, 8.6 medical support or security support for prisons, jails, and other correctional facilities) should be discussed when appropriate.

2.4 Schools

a. A list of schools including name, location, student Yes Table 8-2 population, and transportation resources required to Section 8.2 support the evacuation, should be provided.

The source of this information should be provided.b. Transportation resources for elementary and middle Yes Table 8-2, Section 8.2 schools should be based on 100% of the school capacity.c. The estimate of high school students who will use their Yes Section 8.2 personal vehicle to evacuate should be provided and a basis for the values used should be discussed.

d. The need for return trips should be identified if necessary.

Yes There are insufficient resources to evacuate schools in a single wave.However, Section 8.4 discusses mutual aid agreements to provide the necessary resources for schools.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-6 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

.Reie Crtei Crtro Addesse Comment 2.5.1 Special Events a. A complete list of special events should be provided and Yes Section 3.7 includes information on the population, estimated duration, and season of the event.b. The special event that encompasses the peak transient Yes Section 3.7 population should be analyzed in the ETE.c. The percent of permanent residents attending the event Yes Section 3.7 should be estimated.

2.5.2 Shadow

Evacuation

a. A shadow evacuation of 20 percent should be included for Yes Section 2.2 -Assumption 5 areas outside the evacuation area extending to 15 miles Figures 2-1, 7-1 from the NPP. Section 3.2 b. Population estimates for the shadow evacuation in the 10 Yes Section 3.2, Figure 3-4, Table 3-3 to 15 mile area beyond the EPZ are provided by sector.c. The loading of the shadow evacuation onto the roadway Yes Section 5 -Table 5-9 network should be consistent with the trip generation time generated for the permanent resident population.

2.5.3 Background

Pass Through Traffic a. The volume of background traffic and pass-through traffic Yes Sections 3.6, 6 should be based on the average daytime traffic. Values Tables 3-6, 6-3, 6-4 may be reduced for nighttime scenarios.

b. Pass-through traffic should be assumed to have stopped Yes Section 2.3 -Assumption 5 entering the EPZ about two hours after the initial notification.

Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 I NR Reie Crtei Crtro Addressed-Coment 2.6 Summary of Demand Estimation

a. A summary table should be provided that identifies the Yes Tables 3-7, 3-8 total populations and total vehicles used in analysis for permanent residents, transients, transit dependent residents, special facilities, schools, shadow population, and pass-through demand used in each scenario.3.0 Roadway Capacity a. The method(s) used to assess roadway capacity should beu Yes ISection 4 discussed.

I___I_ ____3.1 Roadway Characteristics

a. A field survey of key routes within the EPZ has been Yes Section 1.3 conducted.

b. Information should be provided describing the extent of Yes Section 1.3 the survey, and types of information gathered and used in the analysis.c. A table similar to that in Appendix A, "Roadway Yes Appendix K, Table K-1 Characteristics," of NUREG/CR-7002 should be provided.d. Calculations for a representative roadway segment should Yes Section 4 be provided.e. A legible map of the roadway system that identifies node Yes Appendix K, Figures K-1 through K-32 numbers and segments used to develop the ETE should be present the entire link-node analysis provided and should be similar to Figure 3-1, "Roadway network at a scale suitable to identify all Network Identifying Nodes and Segments," of NUREG/CR-links and nodes 7002.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 S .Reie Crtei Crtro Addese Comments 3.2 Capacity Analysis a. The approach used to calculate the roadway capacity for Yes Section 4 the transportation network should be described in detail and identifies factors that should be expressly used in the modeling.b. The capacity analysis identifies where field information Yes Section 1.3, Section 4 should be used in the ETE calculation.

3.3 Intersection

Control a. A list of intersections should be provided that includes the Yes Appendix K, Table K-2 total number of intersections modeled that are unsignalized, signalized, or manned by response personnel.

b. Characteristics for the 10 highest volume intersections Yes Table J-1 within the EPZ are provided including the location, signal cycle length, and turn lane queue capacity.c. Discussion should be provided on how signal cycle time is Yes Section 4.1, Appendix C used in the calculations.

3.4 Adverse

Weather a. The adverse weather condition should be identified and Yes Table 2-1, Section 2.3 -Assumption 9 the effects of adverse weather on mobilization time Mobilization time -Table 2-2, Section 5.3 should be considered. (page 5-10)b. The speed and capacity reduction factors identified in Yes Table 2-2 -based on HCM 2010. The Table 3-1, "Weather Capacity Factors," of NUREG/CR-7002 factors provided in Table 3-1 of should be used or a basis should be provided for other NUREG/CR-7002 are from HCM 2000.values.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

.R Reie Crtei Crtro Adde. e Comment c. The study identifies assumptions for snow removal on streets and driveways, when applicable.

Yes Section 5.3 -page 5-10 Appendix F -Section F.3.3 4.0 Development of Evacuation Times 4.1 Trip Generation Time a. The process used to develop trip generation times should Yes Section 5 be identified.

b. When telephone surveys are used, the scope of the Yes Appendix F survey, area of survey, number of participants, and statistical relevance should be provided.c. Data obtained from telephone surveys should be Yes Appendix F summarized.

d. The trip generation time for each population group should Yes Section 5, Appendix F be developed from site specific information.

4.1.1 Permanent

Residents and Transient Population

a. Permanent residents are assumed to evacuate from their Yes Section 5 discusses trip generation for homes but are not assumed to be at home at all times. households with and without returning Trip generation time includes the assumption that a commuters.

Table 6-3 presents the percentage of residents will need to return home prior to percentage of households with returning evacuating, commuters and the percentage of households either without returning commuters or with no commuters.

Appendix F presents the percent households who will await the return of commuters.

Section 2.3, Assumption 3 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

.R Reie Crtei Critrio Addese Comment b. Discussion should be provided on the time and method used to notify transients.

The trip generation time discusses any difficulties notifying persons in hard to reach areas such as on lakes or in campgrounds.

Yes Section 5.4.3 c. The trip generation time accounts for transients Yes Section 5, Figure 5-1 potentially returning to hotels prior to evacuating.

d. Effect of public transportation resources used during Yes Section 3.7 special events where a large number of transients should be expected should be considered.

e. The trip generation time for the transient population Yes Section 5, Table 5-9 should be integrated and loaded onto the transportation network with the general public.4.1.2 Transit Dependent Residents a. If available, existing plans and bus routes should be used Yes Section 8.4 -page 8-7. See Figure 8-2, in the ETE analysis.

If new plans should be developed with Table 8-10.the ETE, they have been agreed upon by the responsible authorities.

b. Discussion should be included on the means of evacuating Yes Sections 8.4, 8.5 ambulatory and non-ambulatory residents.

c. The number, location, and availability of buses, and other Yes Section 8.4, Table 8-5 resources needed to support the demand estimation should be provided.d. Logistical details, such as the time to obtain buses, brief Yes Section 8.4, Figure 8-1 drivers, and initiate the bus route should be provided.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 NR Reie Crtei Critrio Addese Comments e. Discussion should identify the time estimated for transit dependent residents to prepare and travel to a bus pickup point, and describes the expected means of travel to the pickup point.Yes Section 8.4 f. The number of bus stops and time needed to load Yes Section 8.4 passengers should be discussed.

g. A map of bus routes should be included.

Yes Figure 8-2 h. The trip generation time for non-ambulatory persons Yes Section 8.5 includes the time to mobilize ambulances or special vehicles, time to drive to the home of residents, loading time, and time to drive out of the EPZ should be provided.i. Information should be provided to supports analysis of Yes Sections 8.4, 8.5 return trips, if necessary.

Figure 8-1 Tables 8-11 through 8-13 4.1.3 Special Facilities

a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization times Yes Section 8-4, Tables 8-6 through 8-9, 8-11 should be provided.

through 8-13 b. Discussion should be provided on the inbound and Yes Section 8.4 outbound speeds.c. The number of wheelchair and bed-bounds individuals Yes Section 8.4, Tables 8-4, 8-5 should be provided, and the logistics of evacuating these residents should be discussed.

d. Time for loading of residents should be provided Yes Section 8.4 Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

.R Reie Crtei Crteio Addesse Comment e. Information should be provided that indicates whether the evacuation can be completed in a single trip or if additional trips should be needed.Yes Section 8.4, Table 8-5 f. If return trips should be needed, the destination of Yes Section 8.4 vehicles should be provided.g. Discussion should be provided on whether special facility Yes Section 8.4 residents are expected to pass through the reception center prior to being evacuated to their final destination.

h. Supporting information should be provided to quantify the Yes Section 8.4 time elements for the return trips.4.1.4 Schools a. Information on evacuation logistics and mobilization time Yes Section 8.4 should be provided.b. Discussion should be provided on the inbound and Yes School bus routes are presented in Table outbound speeds. 8-6.School bus speeds are presented in Tables 8-7 (good weather), 8-8 (rain), and 8-9 (snow).Section 8.4 discusses inbound and outbound speeds.c. Time for loading of students should be provided.

Yes Tables 8-7 through 8-9. Discussion in Section 8.4 d. Information should be provided that indicates whether Yes Section 8.4 -page 8-6 the evacuation can be completed in a single trip or if additional trips are needed.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2

.R Reie Crtei Crteio Addese Comments f. If used, reception centers should be identified.

Discussion should be provided on whether students are expected to pass through the reception center prior to being evacuated to their final destination.

Yes Table 8-3. Students are evacuated to host schools where they will be picked up by parents or guardians.

g. Supporting information should be provided to quantify the Yes Return trips are not needed. Tables 8-7 time elements for the return trips, through 8-9 provide time needed to arrive at reception centers, which could be used to compute a second wave evacuation if necessary 4.2 ETE Modeling a. General information about the model should be provided Yes DYNEV II (Ver. 4.0.0.0) System. Section 1.3, and demonstrates its use in ETE studies. Table 1-3, Appendix B, Appendix C.b. If a traffic simulation model is not used to conduct the ETE No Not applicable as a traffic simulation calculation, sufficient detail should be provided to validate model was used the analytical approach used. All criteria elements should have been met, as appropriate.

4.2.1 Traffic

Simulation Model Input a. Traffic simulation model assumptions and a representative Yes Appendices B and C describe the set of model inputs should be provided, simulation model assumptions and algorithms Table J-2 -model inputs b. A glossary of terms should be provided for the key Yes Appendix A performance measures and parameters used in the Tables C-1, C-2 analysis.Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 in ET A..alysis 4.2.2 Traffic Simulation Model Output a. A discussion regarding whether the traffic simulation Yes Appendix B model used must be in equilibration prior to calculating the ETE should be provided.b. The minimum following model outputs should be provided Yes 1. Table J-5 to support review: 2. Table J-3 1. Total volume and percent by hour at each EPZ exit 3. Table J-1 node. 4. Table J-3 2. Network wide average travel time. 5. Figures J-1 through J-14 (one plot for 3. Longest queue length for the 10 intersections with the each scenario considered) highest traffic volume. 6. Table J-4. Network wide average speed 4. Total vehicles exiting the network. also provided in Table J-3 5. A plot that provides both the mobilization curve and evacuation curve identifying the cumulative percentage of evacuees who have mobilized and exited the EPZ.6. Average speed for each major evacuation route that exits the EPZ.c. Color coded roadway maps should be provided for various Yes Figures 7-3 through 7-6 times (i.e., at 2, 4, 6 hrs., etc.) during a full EPZ evacuation scenario, identifying areas where long queues exist including level of service (LOS) "E" and LOS "F" conditions, if they occur.4.3 Evacuation Time Estimates for the General Public a. The ETE should include the time to evacuate 90% and Yes Tables 7-1, 7-2 100% of the total permanent resident and transient population Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 NRC Review Criteria Criterion Addressed Comments in ETE Analysis b. The ETE for 100% of the general public should include all members of the general public. Any reductions or truncated data should be explained.

Yes Section 5.4 -truncating survey data to eliminate statistical outliers Table 7-2 -1 0 0 1h percentile ETE for general public c. Tables should be provided for the 90 and 100 percent ETEs Yes Tables 7-3, 7-4 similar to Table 4-3, "ETEs for Staged Evacuation Keyhole," of NUREG/CR-7002.

d. ETEs should be provided for the 100 percent evacuation of Yes Sections 8.4 through 8.6 special facilities, transit dependent, and school Tables 8-7 through 8-9, 8-11 through 8-13 populations.

5.0 Other

Considerations

5.1 Development

of Traffic Control Plans a. Information that responsible authorities have approved Yes Section 9, Appendix G the traffic control plan used in the analysis should be provided.b. A discussion of adjustments or additions to the traffic Yes Appendix G control plan that affect the ETE should be provided.5.2 Enhancements in Evacuation Time a. The results of assessments for improvement of evacuation Yes Sections 7, 8, 9, and 11 time should be provided.

Appendices G and M b. A statement or discussion regarding presentation of Yes Results of the ETE study were formally enhancements to local authorities should be provided, presented to local authorities at the final project meeting. Recommended enhancements were discussed.

Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2 R Reie Crtei Crtro Addesse Comment 5.3 State and Local Review a. A list of agencies contacted and the extent of interaction Yes Table 1-1 with these agencies should be discussed.

b. Information should be provided on any unresolved issues Yes There are no unresolved issues. All issues that may affect the ETE. raised by stakeholders at both the project kickoff meetings and the final meeting have been addressed and incorporated in this final report.5.4 Reviews and Updates a. A discussion of when an updated ETE analysis is required f Yes Appendix M, Section M.3 to be performed and submitted to the NRC. I 5.5 Reception Centers and Congregate Care Center a. A map of congregate care centers and reception centers Yes Figure 10-1 should be provided.b. If return trips are required, assumptions used to estimate Yes Section 8.4 discusses a multi-wave return times for buses should be provided, evacuation procedure.

Figure 8-1 c. It should be clearly stated if it is assumed that passengers Yes Section 2.3 -Assumption 7h are left at the reception center and are taken by separate Section 10 buses to the congregate care center.Technical Reviewer Date Supervisory Review Date Davis-Besse Nuclear Power Station Evacuation Time Estimate N-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.Rev. 2