ML13003A136
| ML13003A136 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Susquehanna  |
| Issue date: | 11/30/2012 |
| From: | KLD Engineering, PC |
| To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, Susquehanna |
| References | |
| Download: ML13003A136 (80) | |
Text
Table 7-1. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 90 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer SummeWinWeatrter Winter Winter Summer Midweek Weekend MdekMidweek Weekend Mdek Midweek Midweek Weekend WeekendI Midday Midday Eveningnirwek M____ 2-ieRgini-iedeinwadEeek__
Midday Midday Evening
_________________ Midday Midday Region Good I Rain Good- Good' Rain Good.Ga Rain.GoGood Snow Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather
- Wete Weather Weather IIWeather* Weather Event Impact Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ ROI 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 11:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 R02 2:00 2:10 1:55 2:00 1:55 2:05 2:10 2:40 1:55 2:00 2:30 1:55 2:05 2:00 R03 2:20 2:30 2:10 2:15 2:15 1 2:20 1 2:30 3:00 1 2:10 2:15 2:50 i 2:15 2:25 1 2:20
..... . . I *m I I . .... m Z-Mile Region and Keyhole tO 5 Miles R04 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 ROS 1:55 2:00 1:40 1:40 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 R06 2:00 2:00 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:55 2:00 RO 2:00 2:00 1:40 1:45 1:40 2:00 2:00 2:40 1:40 1:45 225 1:40 1:50 2:00 RO8 2:00 2:00 1:40 1:40 1:40 2:00 I 2:00 2:40 , 1:40 1:40 2:25 1:40 1:55 2:00 5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R09 2:10 2:15 1:55 2:05 1:55 2:10 2:15 2:55 1:55 2:05 2:35 2:00 2:15 2:10 RIO 2:15 2:25 2:05 2:15 2:05 2:15 2:25 3:00 2:10 2:15 2:50 2:10 2:25 2:15 R11 2:10 2:20 2.00 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:20 2:50 2:00 2:10 2:40 2:05 2:15 2:10 R12 2:05 2:10 1:55 2:00 2:00 2:05 2:10 2:45 1:55 2:00 2:30 2:00 2:05 2:05 R13 1:55 2:00 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:55 2:00 2:30 1:50 1:50 2:20 1:50 1:55 1:55 R14 1:55 2:00 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:55 2:00 2:30 1:50 1:50 2:20 1:50 1:55 1:55 RIS 1:55 2:00 1:45 1:50 1:50 1:55 2:00 2:30 1:45 1:50 2:20 1:50 1:55 1:55 R16 1:55 2:00 1:50 1:50 1:50 1:55 2:00 2:30 1:45 1:50 2:20 1:50 1:55 1:55 R17 1:55 2:00 1:45 1:50 1:50 1:55 2:00 2:30 1:45 1:50 2:20 1:50 1:55 1:55 R18 2:05 2:10 1:55 2:00 2:00 2:05 2:10 2:40 1:55 2:00 2:30 2:00 2:05 2:05 R19 2:30 2:45 2:20 2:25 2:25 2:30 2:45 3:10 2:20 2:25 3:00 2:25 2:30 2:30 R20 2:35 2:40 2:20 2:30 2:25 2:35 2:50 3:15 2:20 2:30 3:05 2:25 2:30 2:35 R21 2:35 2:45 2:25 2:30 2:30 2:35 2:45 3:15 2:25 2:30 3:05 2:30 2:35 2:35 R22 2:30 2:40 2:20 2:30 2:20 2:30 2:40 3:10 2:20 2:25 3:00 2:20 2:30 2:30 R23 2:25 2:35 2:10 2:25 2:15 2:25 2:40 3:10 2:15 2:20 3:00 2:15 2:25 2:25 R24 2:10 2:15 1:55 2:05 1:55 2:10 2:15 2:45 1:55 2:05 2:35 1:55 2:10 2:10 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-8 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend Weekend WeekendI Midweek Midweek IISc!n r] ([) (2)l (3 (4 (5) (6 (7) (8 (10)] [l9)l (1 )( [IRE 3)
Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good I Rain Good Rain Good Good i Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Weather Weather Weather Rain Snow r I Weather Event Impact Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles 11S 2.00 2:00 1:55 1:55 1:55 2:00 2:00 2:35 1:55 1:55 2:30 1:55 1:55 20 R26 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:35 2:00 2:00 2:35 2:00 2:00 2:05 R27 2:5 2:05 2:05 2:05 2.05 2:05 2:05 2:40 2:05 2:05 2:35 2:05 2:05 2:05 R28 2:05 2:05 2:00 2:00 2:00 2:05 2:05 2:40 2:00 2:00 2:35 2:00 2:00 2:05 R29 2:10 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:05 2:10 2:10 2:45 2:05 2:10 2:40 2:05 2:10 2:10 R30 2:50 2:55 2:45 2:50 2:45 2:50 2:55 3:35 2:45 2:50 13:30 2:45 2:50 2:50 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table 7-2. Time to Clear the Indicated Area of 100 Percent of the Affected Population Summer Summer SummeWinWeatrter Winter Winter Summer
_____Midweek Weekend Eire Midweek EPe Weekend Weekend Midweek Midweek Weekend Region Scnrio:
Go RanGood1 14:)
Midday Weather 40 Ran Midday Weather (3
4:00 Rainoo Evening 4):00() Weather GoodRin Good
- 0 Weather Midday 4:043(40 RIn (7
So Sno8 (4:01 Weather Ran Midday 14:0)
Ri Gooo So 430 Snw Evening 12:0 Weather Spca oadway Midday Event 4:00 Midday Impact (4:0 Entire 2-Mile Region, 5-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4-00 4:00 4:0 :5400 4:00 4:30 4:00 4:00 4:00 R02 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:05 R03 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R04 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:05 ROS 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:05 R06 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:05 R07 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:05 RO8 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:05 5-Mile Region and Keyhole to EPZ Boundary R09 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 RIO 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R11 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R12 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R13 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4;10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R14 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 RIS 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R16 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R17 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R18 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R19 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R20 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R21 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:0 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R22 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R23 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 R24 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:40 4:10 4:10 4:10 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Summer Summer Summer Winter Winter Winter Winter Summer trho Midweek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midweek Weekend weee Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Good Rain ood ood Rain Snow Good IRain Snow Good Special Roadway Weather Rain Weather Weather Weather I I Weather Snow Weather Event Impact Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R25 4:05 :05 ~ 4:05 4:0 4:0 5 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 7 4:05 R26 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:05 R7 4:05 4:0 4:0 4:0 4:0 4:0 4:0 4:5 40 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:05 R28 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:05 R29 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:05 R30 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:35 4:05 4:05 4:05 Rev. 0 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-11 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table 7-3. Time to Clear 90 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer SummeWinWeatrter Winter Winter Summer Midweek Weekend MdekMidweek Weekend Mdek Midweek Midweek Weekend Weekend Midday Midday EveningEnirwek2-ieieio,5-ieeeioankP Midday Midday Evening Midday Midday Region Good Rin Good Rin Good Good IRain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway
" 02 Weather 1:5"1:5 Ran J Weather 1:4 Ran 1:5 Weather 1:4 Weather
- 5 j15 IIWeather :5 ~ j 4 221:40 Weather Event 1:0" Impact 15 Entire 2-Mile Region, S-Mile Region, and EPZ R01 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 2-Mile Region and Keyhole to S Miles R02 1:55 1:5511:40 1:45 1:40 11:55 11:55 12:351 1:40 1:45 2:25 140 1:50 1:55 R04 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 ROB 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 R061:55 1:55 1:40 Staged Evacuation 1 2-Mile Region and0 K e t550M s 1:55 R07 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 R07 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 Staged Evacuation Mile Region and Keyhole to 5 Miles R25 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 R26 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 R27 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 R28 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 R29 1:55 1:55 1:40 1:45 1:40 1:55 1:55 2:35 1:40 1:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 R30 1:55 1:55 1:4 :51:40 :5 1:55 1 :5 1:40 1!:45 2:25 1:40 1:50 1:55 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Electric Station Steam Electric Susquehanna Steam Station 7-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table 7-4. Time to Clear 100 Percent of the 2-Mile Area within the Indicated Region Summer Summer SummeWinWeatrter Winter winter summer Midweek Weekend MidweekMidweek Weekend Weekend Midweek weekend Midweek Midweek Midday Midday Enirwek Evening 2-ieReini5Mldegoaneek____
Midday Midday Evening Midday
____ Midday Region Good Rain Good Rain Good Good Rain Snow Good Rain Snow Good Special Roadway
' I~I~~ I 4:0I0 0 0 1 /
R022 R06
___ther 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 Weather 4:0014:0014:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 WethrWethrWethr S-Mile~ Region~~
4:001 4:00 4:00 4:35 and Keyhole to 4:00 14:35 Miles 4:00 5
4:00 4:00 4:0014:30 4:30 4:00 Weahe 4:00 4:00 Evnt 4:00 4:00 Imac 4:00 R04 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:35 4:00 4:00 4:30 4:00 4:00 4:00 R06 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:35 4:00 4:00 4:30 4:00 4:00 4:00 R06 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:35 4:00 4:00 4:30 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:0 400 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:35 4:00 5 400 4:30 4o R2S 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:35 4:00 4:00 4:30 4:00 4:00 4:00 R27 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:35 4:00 4:00 4:30 4:00 4:00 4:00
. . .... . .. . . ........................ .... 4 :3
..... 4 :0 .... . ..... 4 :00. 4 :00 ...
R26 4:00 4:00 4:'00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:005 4:35 4:00 4:00 4:30 j 4:00 4:00 4:00 R29 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:00 4:35 4:00 4:00 4:30 4:00 4:00 4:00 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 0
Table 7-5. Description of Evacuation Regions Region Description ERPA Regio1 2ecito3 14 15 6 011 112 113 114 115 116 t17 [18 119 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 R0u 2-Mile Ring R02 5-Mile Ring R03 Full EPZ ERPA Reg io n W ind Dire c tion To : 1 10-1 1 1 1 2 1 1 3 1 1 415 1 1 6 1 1 1 18 1 1 1 20 1 2 1 2 2 1 232-1-2 R04 NNW, N, NNE I I I 2 I[I25 2 2 12612 NE, W, WNW, NW Refer to R01 ROS ENE, E, ESE R06 SE, SSE R07 S ROB SSW, SW, WSW Region R09 Wind Direction To:
N 1 2 Nm73 4 5 6 7 8 11 12 1 ERPA 15 16 17 19 22 23 24 25 26 RiO NNE R11 NE R12 ENE R R13 E R14 ESE R15 SE R16 SSE R17 S R18 SSW J R19 SW I Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-14 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
ERPA Region Description 1121 3 1 5l6 64 71g 9 1 10 1 112 1 13 114 115 16 I 17 I 18 I 19 I 20 1 21 I 22 I 23 I 24 I 25 I 26 I 27 I R20 WSW I I I R21 I W 11111 R22 WNW I I 4 I - -
R23 I
NW I -
I I I R24 NNW I I I I ERPA Region Wind Direction To:
16112 311It1 15 1101 LI1 2 1 1141 5 1 1171 8 1 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 R25 NNW, N, NNE -- TI I I I I I I I I I I I IT NE, W, WNW, NW Refer to R01 R26 ENE, E, ESE R27 SE, SSE R28 S R29 SSW, SW, WSW R30 5-Mile Ring
/ERPA(s) Shelter-in-Place Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-15 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Figure 7-1. Voluntary Evacuation Methodology Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-16 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Figure 7-2. SSES Shadow Region Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-17 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Figure 7-3. Congestion Patterns at 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-18 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Figure 7-4. Congestion Patterns at 1 Hour after the Advisory to Evacuate Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Figure 7-5. Congestion Patterns at 2 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Figure 7-6. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours after the Advisory to Evacuate Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-21 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
0 Figure 7-7. Congestion Patterns at 3 Hours, 30 Minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 1)
- 2-Mile Region - 5-Mile Region - Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%
70 60 to
-- 50 c 40 U'- 'A030 S 20 '0 10 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-8. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 1 for Region R03 0
Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 2)
- 2-Mile Region - 5-Mile Region - Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%
70 60 S 50 c 40 f 30 20 10 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-9. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 2 for Region R03 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 3)
- 2-Mile Region - 5-Mile Region - Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%
70 60 hi
= 50 M
M 40 A 030 "ul-
- 20 dIk 10
.dO' 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-10. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 3 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 4)
Mile Region Mie Region -Entire EPZ
- 90% 0 100%
70 60 50 p
LU c40
- U o 30 20 A&
10 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-11. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 4 for Region R03 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 5)
,-2-Mile Region Mile Region - Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%
70 60 S 50 M
c 40 LU 0 30
- 20 10 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-12. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 5 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good (Scenario 6)
Mile Region Mile Region - Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%
70 60 S 50 40 LU
'A30 10 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-13. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 6 for Region R03 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Rain (Scenario 7)
- 2-Mile Region Mile Region - Entire EPZ
- 90% 0 100%
70 60
.E 50 C 40 w
0 30
- 20 10
AOL_
0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-14. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 7 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Snow (Scenario 8)
- 2-Mile Region Mile Region - Entire EPZ
- 90% 0 100%
70 60
. 50 c 40 LU 30
"* *20 10 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 27(0 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-15. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 8 for Region R03 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-26 KILD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Good (Scenario 9)
- 2-Mile Region - 5-Mile Region - Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%
70 60 350 c 40 I'M U'-=
S 20 10 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-16. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 9 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Rain (Scenario 10)
Mile Region - 5-Mile Region - Entire EPZ
- 90% 0 100%
70 60
" 50 C
M 40 A 030 S 20 10 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-17. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 10 for Region R03 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Weekend, Midday, Snow (Scenario 11)
- 2-Mile Region Mile Region - Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%
70 60 to 50 N i40 M
0 30 20 10 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-18. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 11 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Weekend, Evening, Good (Scenario 12)
- 2-Mile Region Mile Region - Entire EPZ
- 90% 0 100%
70 60
- 50 M
m 40
- 030
- 20 '0p 10 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-19. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 12 for Region R03 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-28 KILD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Evacuation Time Estimates Winter, Midweek, Midday, Good, Special Event (Scenario 13)
- 2-Mile Region - 5-Mile Region - Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%
70 60
- 50
' 40 U5J '
0 30 S 20 10 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-20. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 13 for Region R03 Evacuation Time Estimates Summer, Midweek, Midday, Good, Roadway Impact (Scenario 14)
- 2-Mile Region - 5-Mile Region - Entire EPZ 0 90% 0 100%
70 60
.~50 c 40 30
-20 10 0
0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 Elapsed Time After Evacuation Recommendation (min)
Figure 7-21. Evacuation Time Estimates - Scenario 14 for Region R03 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 7-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
8 TRANSIT-DEPENDENT AND SPECIAL FACILITY EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES This section details the analyses applied and the results obtained in the form of evacuation time estimates for transit vehicles. The demand for transit service reflects the needs of three population groups: (1) residents with no vehicles available; (2) residents of special facilities such as schools, medical facilities, and correctional facilities; and (3) homebound special needs population.
These transit vehicles mix with the general evacuation traffic that is comprised mostly of "passenger cars" (pc's). The presence of each transit vehicle in the evacuating traffic stream is represented within the modeling paradigm described in Appendix D as equivalent to two pc's.
This equivalence factor represents the longer size and more sluggish operating characteristics of a transit vehicle, relative to those of a pc.
Transit vehicles must be mobilized in preparation for their respective evacuation missions.
Specifically:
- Bus drivers must be alerted
- They must travel to the bus depot
- They must be briefed there and assigned to a route or facility These activities consume time. Based on discussion with the offsite agencies, it is estimated that bus mobilization time will average approximately 90 minutes extending from the Advisory to Evacuate, to the time when buses first arrive at the facility to be evacuated.
During this mobilization period, other mobilization activities are taking place. One of these is the action taken by parents, neighbors, relatives and friends to pick up children from school prior to the arrival of buses, so that they may join their families. Virtually all studies of evacuations have concluded that this "bonding" process of uniting families is universally prevalent during emergencies and should be anticipated in the planning process. The current public information disseminated to residents of the SSES EPZ indicates that schoolchildren will be taken to host schools if an evacuation is ordered, and that parents should pick schoolchildren up at high schools. As discussed in Section 2, this study assumes a fast breaking general emergency. Therefore, children are evacuated to host schools. Picking up children at school could add to traffic congestion at the schools, delaying the departure of the buses evacuating schoolchildren, which may have to return in a subsequent "wave" to the EPZ to evacuate the transit-dependent population. This report provides estimates of buses under the assumption that no children will be picked up by their parents (in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002), to present an upper bound estimate of buses required. It is assumed that children at day-care centers are picked up by parents or guardians and that the time to perform this activity is included in the trip generation times discussed in Section 5.
The procedure for computing transit-dependent ETE is to:
- Estimate demand for transit service
- Estimate time to perform all transit functions Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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- Estimate route travel times to the EPZ boundary and to the reception centers 8.1 Transit Dependent People Demand Estimate Transit dependent estimates for Luzerne County were listed in the county RERP. The plan also lists the number of buses required for their evacuation. The telephone survey (see Appendix F) results were used to estimate the portion of the population requiring transit service residing in Columbia County:
- Those persons in households that do not have a vehicle available.
- Those persons in households that do have vehicle(s) that would not be available at the time the evacuation is advised.
In the latter group, the vehicle(s) may be used by a commuter(s) who does not return (or is not expected to return) home to evacuate the household.
Table 8-1A presents estimates of transit-dependent people. Note:
Estimates of persons requiring transit vehicles include schoolchildren. For those evacuation scenarios where children are at school when an evacuation is ordered, separate transportation is provided for the schoolchildren. The actual need for transit vehicles by residents is thereby less than the given estimates. However, estimates of transit vehicles are not reduced when schools are in session.
It is reasonable and appropriate to consider that many transit-dependent persons will evacuate by ride-sharing with neighbors, friends or family. For example, nearly 80 percent of those who evacuated from Mississauga, Ontario who did not use their own cars, shared a ride with neighbors or friends. Other documents report that approximately 70 percent of transit dependent persons were evacuated via ride sharing. We will adopt a conservative estimate that 50 percent of transit dependent persons will ride share, in accordance with NUREG/CR-7002.
The estimated number of bus trips needed to service transit-dependent persons is based on an estimate of average bus occupancy of 30 persons at the conclusion of the bus run. Transit vehicle seating capacities typically equal or exceed 60 children on average (roughly equivalent to 40 adults). If transit vehicle evacuees are two thirds adults and one third children, then the number of "adult seats" taken by 30 persons is 20 + (2/3 xl0) = 27. On this basis, the average load factor anticipated is (27/40) x 100 = 68 percent. Thus, if the actual demand for service exceeds the estimates of Table 8-1A by 50 percent, the demand for service can still be accommodated by the available bus seating capacity.
[20 +
2 t10)]
(ý3x + 40 x 1.5 = 1.00 Table 8-1A and 8-1B indicate that transportation must be provided for 592 residents in Columbia County and 5,418 residents in Luzerne County (6,010 people total). Therefore, a total Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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of 108 bus runs are required to transport this population to reception centers.
To illustrate this estimation procedure, we calculate the number of persons, P, requiring public transit or ride-share, and the number of buses, B, required for the ERPA in Columbia County:
n P = No. of HH x Y.(% HH with i vehicles) x [(Average HH Size) - i]} x AiCi i=0
- Where, A = Percent of households With commuters C = Percent of households who will not await the return of a commuter P = 8,078 x [0.054 x 1.68 + 0.293 x (1.75 - 1) x 0.52 x 0.40 + 0.436 x (2.54 - 2) x (0.52 x 0.40)2] = 1,184 B =(0.5 x P) -- 30 = 20 These calculations are explained as follows:
- All members (1.68 avg.) of households (HH) with no vehicles (5.4%) will evacuate by public transit or ride-share. The term 8,078 (number of households in Columbia County) x 0.054 x 1.68, accounts for these people.
- The members of HH with 1 vehicle away (29.3%), who are at home, equal (1.75-1).
The number of HH where the commuter will not return home is equal to (8,078 x 0.293 x 0.52 x 0.40), as 52% of EPZ households have a commuter, 40% of which would not return home in the event of an emergency. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms.
- The members of HH with 2 vehicles that are away (43.6%), who are at home, equal (2.54 - 2). The number of HH where neither commuter will return home is equal to 8,078 x 0.436 x (0.52 x 0.40)2. The number of persons who will evacuate by public transit or ride-share is equal to the product of these two terms (the last term is squared to represent the probability that neither commuter will return).
- Households with 3 or more vehicles are assumed to have no need for transit vehicles.
- The total number of persons requiring public transit is the sum of such people in HH with no vehicles, or with 1 or 2 vehicles that are away from home.
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8.2 School Population -Transit Demand Table 8-2 presents the school population and transportation requirements for the direct evacuation of all schools within the EPZ for the 2011-2012 school year. This information was provided by the counties. The column in Table 8-2 entitled "Buses Required" specifies the number of buses required for each school under the following set of assumptions and estimates:
- No students will be picked up by their parents prior to the arrival of the buses.
- While many high school students commute to school using private automobiles (as discussed in Section 2.4 of NUREG/CR-7002), the estimate of buses required for school evacuation do not consider the use of these private vehicles.
Bus capacity, expressed in students per bus, is set to 70 for primary schools and 50 for middle and high schools, unless school specific data was available.
Those staff members who do not accompany the students will evacuate in their private vehicles.
No allowance is made for student absenteeism, typically 3 percent daily.
It is recommended that the counties in the EPZ introduce procedures whereby the schools are contacted prior to the dispatch of buses from the depot, to ascertain the current estimate of students to be evacuated. In this way, the number of buses dispatched to the schools will reflect the actual number needed. The need for buses would be reduced by any high school students who have evacuated using private automobiles (if permitted by school authorities).
Those buses originally allocated to evacuate schoolchildren that are not needed due to children being picked up by their parents, can be gainfully assigned to service other facilities or those persons who do not have access to private vehicles or to ride-sharing.
Table 8-3 presents a list of the host schools for each school in the EPZ. Students will be transported to these host schools where they will be subsequently retrieved by their respective families.
8.3 Medical Facility Demand Table 8-4 presents the census of medical facilities in the EPZ. 836 people have been identified as living in, or being treated in, these facilities. The capacity and current census for each facility were provided by the counties. This data includes the number of ambulatory, wheelchair-bound and bedridden patients at each facility.
The transportation requirements for the medical facility population are also presented in Table 8-4. The number of ambulance runs is determined by assuming that 2 patients can be accommodated per ambulance trip; the number of wheelchair bus runs assumes 15 wheelchairs per trip and the number of bus runs estimated assumes 30 ambulatory patients per trip.
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8.4 Evacuation Time Estimates for Transit Dependent People EPZ bus resources are assigned to evacuating schoolchildren (if school is in session at the time of the ATE) as the first priority in the event of an emergency. In the event that the allocation of buses dispatched from the depots to the various facilities and to the bus routes is somewhat "inefficient", or if there is a shortfall of available drivers, then there may be a need for some buses to return to the EPZ from the reception center after completing their first evacuation trip, to complete a "second wave" of providing transport service to evacuees. For this reason, the ETE for the transit-dependent population will be calculated for both a one wave transit evacuation and for two waves. Of course, if the impacted Evacuation Region is other than R03 (the entire EPZ), then there will likely be ample transit resources relative to demand in the impacted Region and this discussion of a second wave would likely not apply.
When school evacuation needs are satisfied, subsequent assignments of buses to service the transit-dependent should be sensitive to their mobilization time. Clearly, the buses should be dispatched after people have completed their mobilization activities and are in a position to board the buses when they arrive at the pick-up points.
Evacuation Time Estimates for transit trips were developed using both good weather and adverse weather conditions. Figure 8-1 presents the chronology of events relevant to transit operations. The elapsed time for each activity will now be discussed with reference to Figure 8-1.
Activity: Mobilize Drivers (A-4B-)C)
Mobilization is the elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the time the buses arrive at the facility to be evacuated. It is assumed that for a rapidly escalating radiological emergency with no observable indication before the fact, school bus drivers would likely require 90 minutes to be contacted, to travel to the depot, be briefed, and to travel to the transit-dependent facilities. Mobilization time is slightly longer in adverse weather - 100 minutes when raining, 110 minutes when snowing.
Activity: Board Passengers (C-- D)
Based on discussions with offsite agencies, a loading time of 15 minutes (20 minutes for rain and 25 minutes for snow) for school buses is used.
For multiple stops along a pick-up route (transit-dependent bus routes) estimation of travel time must allow for the delay associated with stopping and starting at each pick-up point. The time, t, required for a bus to decelerate at a rate, "a", expressed in ft/sec/sec, from a speed, "v", expressed in ft/sec, to a stop, is t = v/a. Assuming the same acceleration rate and final speed following the stop yields a total time, T, to service boarding passengers:
T=t+B+t=B+2t=B+--,
a Where B = Dwell time to service passengers. The total distance, "s" in feet, travelled during the deceleration and acceleration activities is: s = v2/a. If the bus had not stopped to service passengers, but had continued to travel at speed, v, then its travel time over the distance, s, Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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would be: s/v = v/a. Then the total delay (i.e. pickup time, P) to service passengers is:
pT V v a a Assigning reasonable estimates:
B = 50 seconds: a generous value for a single passenger, carrying personal items, to board per stop S v = 25 mph = 37 ft/sec
- a = 4 ft/sec/sec, a moderate average rate Then, P = 1 minute per stop. Allowing 30 minutes pick-up time per bus run implies 30 stops per run, for good weather. It is assumed that bus acceleration and speed will be less in rain; total loading time is 40 minutes per bus in rain, 50 minutes in snow.
Activity: Travel to EPZ Boundary (D--)E)
School Evacuation Transportation resources available were provided by the counties and are summarized in Table 8-5. Also included in the table are the number of buses needed to evacuate schools, medical facilities, transit-dependent population, homebound special needs (discussed below in Section 8.5) and correctional facilities (discussed below in Section 8.6). These numbers indicate there are sufficient resources available to evacuate everyone in a single wave.
The buses servicing the schools are ready to begin their evacuation trips at 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate - 90 minutes mobilization time plus 15 minutes loading time - in good weather. The UNITES software discussed in Section 1.3 was used to define bus routes along the most likely path from a school being evacuated to the EPZ boundary, traveling toward the appropriate host school. This is done in UNITES by interactively selecting the series of nodes from the school to the EPZ boundary. Each bus route is given an identification number and is written to the DYNEV II input stream. DYNEV computes the route length and outputs the average speed for each 5 minute interval, for each bus route. The specified bus routes are documented in Table 8-6 (refer to the maps of the link-node analysis network in Appendix K for node locations). Data provided by DYNEV during the appropriate timeframe depending on the mobilization and loading times (i.e., 100 to 105 minutes after the advisory to evacuate for good weather) were used to compute the average speed for each route, as follows:
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Average Speed(hr)
Z!11 length of link i (mi) 60 min.
1 hr.
Z f Delay on Z'ýlink i (mnin.
li ~ki(
~~~~~ i ~). +
Dela
+t length on of link i (mi.) u 60lXmin.
hr.
current speed on link i-The average speed computed (using this methodology) for the buses servicing each of the schools in the EPZ is shown in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 for school evacuation, and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 for the transit vehicles evacuating transit-dependent persons, which are discussed later. The travel time to the EPZ boundary was computed for each bus using the computed average speed and the distance to the EPZ boundary along the most likely route out of the EPZ. The travel time from the EPZ boundary to the Reception Center was computed assuming an average speed of 40 mph, 35 mph, and 30 mph for good weather, rain and snow, respectively. Speeds were reduced in Table 8-7 through Table 8-9 and in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 to 55 mph (50 mph for rain - 10% decrease - and 45 mph for snow - 20% decrease) for those calculated bus speeds which exceed 55 mph, as the school bus speed limit for state routes in Pennsylvania is 55 mph.
Table 8-7 (good weather), Table 8-8 (rain) and Table 8-9 (snow) present the following evacuation time estimates (rounded up to the nearest 5 minutes) for schools in the EPZ: (1) The elapsed time from the Advisory to Evacuate until the bus exits the EPZ; and (2) The elapsed time until the bus reaches the host school. The evacuation time out of the EPZ can be computed as the sum of times associated with Activities A--B-C, C--D, and D-4E (For example: 90 min. + 15 + 1 = 1:50 for Beaver Main Elementary School, with good weather). The evacuation time to the host school is determined by adding the time associated with Activity E->F (discussed below), to this EPZ evacuation time.
Evacuation of Transit-DependentPopulation The buses dispatched from the depots to service the transit-dependent evacuees will be scheduled so that they arrive at their respective routes after their passengers have completed their mobilization. As shown in Figure 5-4 (Residents with no Commuters), 90 percent of the evacuees will complete their mobilization when the buses will begin their routes, approximately 90 minutes after the Advisory to Evacuate. The start of service on these routes is separated by 10, 15 and 20 minute headways, as shown in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The use of bus headways ensures that those people who take longer to mobilize will be picked up.
Mobilization time is 10 minutes longer in rain to account for slower travel speeds and reduced roadway capacity.
Those buses servicing the transit-dependent evacuees will first travel along their pick-up routes, then proceed out of the EPZ. The county emergency plans do not define bus routes to service Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-7 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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these pick-up locations. The 25 bus routes shown graphically in Figure 8-2A and 8-2B and described in Table 8-10 were designed as part of this study to service the major routes through each population center. It is assumed that residents will walk to and congregate at these pre-designated pick-up locations, and that they can arrive at the stops within the 90 minute bus mobilization time (good weather).
As previously discussed, a pickup time of 30 minutes (good weather) is estimated for 30 individual stops to pick up passengers, with an average of one minute of delay associated with each stop. A longer pickup time of 40 minutes and 50 minutes are used for rain and snow, respectively.
The travel distance along the respective pick-up routes within the EPZ is estimated using the UNITES software. Bus travel times within the EPZ are computed using average speeds computed by DYNEV, using the aforementioned methodology that was used for school evacuation.
Table 8-11 through Table 8-13 present the transit-dependent population evacuation time estimates for each bus route calculated using the above procedures for good weather, rain and snow, respectively.
For example, the ETE for the bus route servicing Beaver Township (Route 1) is computed as 90 +
6 + 30 = 2:10 for good weather (rounded up to nearest 5 minutes). Here, 6 minutes is the time to travel 4.4 miles at 43.1 mph, the average speed output by the model for this route starting at 90 minutes. The ETE for a second wave (discussed below) is presented in the event there is a shortfall of available buses or bus drivers, as previously discussed.
Activity: Travel to Reception Centers (E--'F)
The distances from the EPZ boundary to the reception centers are measured using GIS software along the most likely route from the EPZ exit point to the reception center. The reception centers are mapped in Figure 10-1. For a one-wave evacuation, this travel time outside the EPZ does not contribute to the ETE. For a two-wave evacuation, the ETE for buses must be considered separately, since it could exceed the ETE for the general public. Assumed bus speeds of 40 mph, 35 mph, and 30 mph for good weather, rain, and snow, respectively, will be applied for this activity for buses servicing the transit-dependent population.
Activity: Passengers Leave Bus (F--G)
A bus can empty within 5 minutes. The driver takes a 10 minute break.
Activity: Bus Returns to Route for Second Wave Evacuation (GQC)
The buses assigned to return to the EPZ to perform a "second wave" evacuation of transit-dependent evacuees will be those that have already evacuated transit-dependent people who mobilized more quickly. The first wave of transit-dependent people depart the bus, and the bus then returns to the EPZ, travels to its route and proceeds to pick up more transit-dependent evacuees along the route. The travel time back to the EPZ is equal to the travel time to the reception center.
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The second-wave ETE for the bus route servicing Beaver Township (Route 1) is computed as follows for good weather:
- Bus arrives at reception center at 2:41 in good weather (2:10 to exit EPZ + 31 minute travel time to reception center).
- Bus discharges passengers (5 minutes) and driver takes a 10-minute rest: 15 minutes.
- Bus returns to EPZ and completes second route: 31 minutes (equal to travel time to reception center) + 13 minutes (8.8 miles @ 40 mph) = 44 minutes
- Bus completes pick-ups along route: 30 minutes.
- Bus exits EPZ at time 2:10 + 0:31 + 0:15 + 0:31 + 0:13 = 4:10 (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) after the Advisory to Evacuate.
The ETE for the completion of the second wave for all transit-dependent bus routes are provided in Table 8-11 through Table 8-13. The average ETE for a two-wave evacuation of transit-dependent people exceeds the ETE for the general population at the 9 0 th percentile.
The relocation of transit-dependent evacuees from the reception centers to mass care centers, if the counties decide to do so, is not considered in this study.
Evacuation of Medical Facilities The evacuation of these facilities is similar to school evacuation except:
Buses are assigned on the basis of 30 patients to allow for staff to accompany the patients. Wheelchair buses can accommodate 15 patients, and ambulances can accommodate 2 patients.
Loading times of 1 minute, 5 minutes, and 15 minutes per patient are assumed for ambulatory patients, wheelchair bound patients, and bedridden patients, respectively.
Table 8-4 indicates that 27 bus runs, 15 wheelchair van runs and 85 ambulance runs are needed to service all of the medical facilities in the EPZ: According to Table 8-5, the counties can collectively provide 396 buses, 76 wheelchair vans and 135 ambulances. Additional ambulances are available from neighboring counties if needed. Thus, there are sufficient resources to evacuate the medical facilities in a single wave.
As is done for the schools, it is estimated that mobilization time averages 90 minutes. Specially trained medical support staff (working their regular shift) will be on site to assist in the evacuation of patients. Additional staff (if needed) could be mobilized over this same 90 minute timeframe.
Table 8-14 through Table 8-16 summarize the ETE for medical facilities within the EPZ for good weather, rain, and snow. Average speeds output by the model for Scenario 6 (Scenario 7 for rain and Scenario 8 for snow) Region 3, capped at 55 mph (50 mph for rain and 45 mph for snow), are used to compute travel time to EPZ boundary. The travel time to the EPZ boundary is computed by dividing the distance to the EPZ boundary by the average travel speed. The ETE is the sum of the mobilization time, total passenger loading time, and travel time out of the Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-9 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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EPZ. Concurrent loading on multiple buses, wheelchair buses/vans, and ambulances at capacity is assumed such that the maximum loading times for buses, wheelchair vans and ambulances are 30, 20 and 30 minutes, respectively. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes. For example, the calculation of ETE for the Berwick Hospital Center and Retirement Village with 250 ambulatory residents during good weather is:
ETE: 90 + 30 x 1 + 35 = 155min or 2:35 It is assumed that medical facility population is directly evacuated to appropriate host medical facilities. Relocation of this population to permanent facilities and/or passing through the reception center before arriving at the host facility are not considered in this analysis.
Evacuation of Camp Louise There is one children's camp - Camp Louise - within the EPZ. Camp Louise is an overnight Girl Scout camp for girls from ages 6 to 17. Based on e-mails received from the management of this facility, the peak population at the camp is 176 children and 25 staff. The peak season for the camp is from mid-June to early August. The camp has an agreement with Bowers Bus in Berwick to supply buses in the event of an emergency evacuation. The buses would arrive at the camp within 30 minutes of being contacted. As with the schoolchildren, it is estimated that bus loading time is 5 minutes. The most likely route from Camp Louise out of the EPZ is south on Shickshinny Valley Rd, west on Knob Mountain Rd, south on Yost Hollow Rd and then west on State Route 93 out of the EPZ, a 12.4 mile long route. The average speed output by DYNEV at approximately 35 minutes (30 minute mobilization time for the buses plus 5 minute loading time) after the Advisory to Evacuate (ATE) for an evacuation of Region 3 (Entire EPZ) under Scenario I conditions (Summer, Midweek, Midday) is 55.3 mph. Based on this speed, it will take approximately 13 minutes to travel the 12.4 mile route necessary to exit the EPZ.
ETE = 0:30 (mobilization) + 0:05 (loading) + 0:13 (travel time) = 0:50 (rounded to nearest 5 minutes) 8.5 Special Needs Population The county emergency management agencies have a registration for homebound special needs persons. Based on data provided by the counties in 2010, there are an estimated 36 homebound special needs people within the Columbia County portion of the EPZ and 69 people within the Luzerne County portion of the EPZ who require transportation assistance to evacuate. Each of these residents (105 total) requires an ambulance to evacuate.
ETE for Homebound Special Needs Persons Table 8-17 summarizes the ETE for homebound special needs people. The table is broken down by weather condition. The table takes into consideration the deployment of multiple vehicles to reduce the number of stops per vehicle. It is conservatively assumed that bedridden households are spaced 5 miles apart. Ambulance speeds approximate 20 mph between households in good weather (10% slower in rain, 20% slower in snow). Mobilization times of 90 minutes were used (100 minutes for rain, and 110 minutes for snow). The last HH is assumed Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-10 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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to be 5 miles from the EPZ boundary, and the network-wide average speed, capped at 40 mph (35 mph for rain and 30 mph for snow), after the last pickup is used to compute travel time. ETE is computed by summing mobilization time, loading time at first household, travel to the second household, loading time at second household, and travel time to EPZ boundary. All ETE are rounded to the nearest 5 minutes.
For example, assuming no more than one special needs person per HH implies that 105 households need to be serviced. Ambulances are assumed to have a capacity of two persons per ambulance resulting in a total of 53 ambulances needed to complete the evacuation in a single wave. The following outlines the ETE calculations:
- 1. Assume 53 ambulances are deployed, each with about 2 stops, to service a total of 105 HH.
- 2. The ETE is calculated as follows:
- a. Ambulances arrive at the first pickup location: 90 minutes
- b. Load HH members at first pickup: 5 minutes
- c. Travel to next pickup location: 9 minutes (assumed 3 miles @ 20 mph)
- d. Load HH members at subsequent pickup locations: 5 minutes
- e. Travel to EPZ boundary: 10 minutes (5 miles @ 30.9 mph).
ETE: 90 + 15 + 9 + 15 + 10 = 2:20 rounded to the nearest 5 minutes 8.6 Correctional Facilities The State Correctional Institute (SCI) Retreat is located in Hunlock Creek Township (Luzerne County) 7.4 miles north-northeast of the SSES (see Figure E-8).
The Pennsylvania Department of Corrections (PDOC) and Luzerne County Emergency Management Agency (EMA) were contacted; it was indicated that the detailed evacuation plan for SCI Retreat is confidential. However, the following information needed to compute ETE for the facility was provided:
" Based on the current and maximum census at SCI Retreat, the PDOC and Luzerne County have buses available to evacuate the entire population in a single wave.
" The buses evacuating inmates and guards from SCI Retreat will travel northbound on US Route 11 out of the EPZ, a 3.3 mile route. After exiting the EPZ, the buses will continue to their planned destinations (confidential) and will not need to return to the EPZ.
- Buses will arrive at SCI Retreat between 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> (early buses) and 4 hours4.62963e-5 days <br />0.00111 hours <br />6.613757e-6 weeks <br />1.522e-6 months <br /> (late buses) after the evacuation order.
The following additional data are needed to compute ETE for the SCI Retreat:
It is assumed that approximately 40 passengers (inmates and guards) will be loaded onto each bus. Exhibit 27-9 (page 27-10) of the 2000 Highway Capacity Manual (HCM2000) shows that passengers can board a bus at headways of 2 to 3 seconds per passenger. Thus, a single bus can be loaded to capacity in approximately 2 minutes. It is Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-11 KILD Engineering, P.C.
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assumed that several buses will be loaded in parallel and that all inmates and guards will be loaded on to buses within 30 minutes of the arrival of the buses.
- For Scenario 6 (winter), Region 3 (entire EPZ), the average speed output by DYNEV at approximately 2:30 (2:00 mobilization time for those buses which arrive first, plus 30 minute loading time) after the ATE is 20.0 mph. Based on this speed, it will take approximately 10 minutes to travel the 3.3 mile route out of the EPZ.
- For Scenario 6 (winter), Region 3 (entire EPZ), the average speed output by DYNEV at approximately 4:30 (4:00 mobilization time for those buses which arrive last, plus 30 minute loading time) after the ATE is 45.4 mph. Based on this speed, it will take approximately 5 minutes to travel the 3.3 mile route out of the EPZ.
The ETE for SCI Retreat is bounded by:
Mobilize the buses: 2:00 Mobilize the buses: 4:00 Board the Inmates: 0:30 Board the Inmates: 0:30 Travel out of EPZ: 0:10 Travel out of EPZ: 0:05 ETE (early buses) 2:40 ETE (late buses) 4:35 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-12 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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(Subsequent Wave)
Time A Advisory to Evacuate B Bus Dispatched from Depot C Bus Arrives at Facility/Pick-up Route D Bus Departs for Reception Center E Bus Exits Region F Bus Arrives at Reception Center/Host Facility G Bus Available for "Second Wave" Evacuation Service A--+B Driver Mobilization B-*C Travel to Facility or to Pick-up Route C--D Passengers Board the Bus D--E Bus Travels Towards Region Boundary E-*F Bus Travels Towards Reception Center Outside the EPZ F-+G Passengers Leave Bus; Driver Takes a Break Figure 8-1. Chronology of Transit Evacuation Operations Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-13 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Figure 8-2A. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes (1 of 2)
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Figure 8-2B. Transit-Dependent Bus Routes (2 of 2)
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Table 8-1A. Columbia County Transit-Dependent Population Estimates 2010~~ ~ ~
SuvyAeaeHHSre ecn 20,356ni' 1.68 1.75- 2.54en 8,07 5.4%o 29.3%n 43.6 52 40% 1,184l 50% 592 2.9%
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Table 8-1B. Luzerne County Transit-Dependent Population Estimates Black Creek Township 100 2 Butler Township 269 6 Conyngham Borough 112 3 Conyngham Township 83 3 Dorrance Township 100 2 Hollenback Township 50 1 Hunlock Township 120 3 Huntington Twp/New Columbus Borough 150 3 Nanticoke City 3,500 45 Nescopeck Borough 88 2 Nescopeck Township 40 1 Newport Township 249 5 Nuangola Borough 36 1 Salem Township 230 5 Shickshinny Borough 60 1 Slocum Township 50 1 Sugarloaf Township 90 2 Union Township 91 2 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-17 KILD Engineering, P.C.
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Table 8-2. School Population Demand Estimates 2 Hunlock Creek Elementary School 284 5 3 Muhlenburg Christian Academy 75 2 3 Northwest Area Middle/High School 668 14 4 Huntington Mills Elementary School 308 5 7 Berwick Middle School 745 13 7 Salem Elementary School 457 7 10 Berwick Senior High School 910 20 10 Columbia Day Care Program 75 3 10 Fourteenth Street Elementary School 218 4 10 Holy Family Consolidated School 75 1 10 New Story 46 2 10 Orange Street Elementary School 440 6 12 Nescopeck Elementary School 285 4 15 Valley Elementary/Middle School 1,109 16 20 K.M. Smith Elementary School 322 5 21 GNA Educational Center 324 5 21 GNA Elementary Center 443 7 21 Greater Nanticoke High School 953 20 21 J F Kennedy Elementary School 132 2 21 Pope John Paul II Catholic School 320 5 21 The Learning Station School 42 1 22 Drums Elementary/Middle School 731 11 22 Keystone Job Corporation High School 600 12 23 Beaver Main Elementary School 106 2 S.R Rice Elementary School 790 1 10 Luzerne County Community College - Berwick 100 15 Penn State Hazleton
- 1,232 5
- 757 students use personal vehicles to evacuate using 1 vehicle per person. 4 on campus, will rideshare at a rate of 50%, and will use buses to evacuate.
- Students use personal vehicles to evacuate using 1 vehicle per student.
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Table 8-3. Host Schools IScho Muhlenburg Christian Academy*
Hos Schoo Hunlock Creek Elementary School Dallas Junior High School Dallas, PA Huntington Mills Elementary School Northwest Area High School The Learning Station School*
GNA Educational Center GNA Elementary School Greater Nanticoke High School Hanover Area Senior High School Wilkes Barre, PA JFK Elementary School K M Smith Elementary School Pope John Paul II Catholic School Keystone Job Corp High School*
Drums Elementary/Middle School Valley Elementary/Middle School McAdoo-Kelayres Elementary School, Kelayres, PA Valley Elementary/Middle School Penn State Hazelton*
Schools attended until 5 p.m., then to Crestwood Jr.-Sr. High Rice Elementary School School Fourteenth Street Elementary Mahoning-Cooper Elementary School _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ __Elementary Beaver Main Elementary School Bloomsburg High School New Story Danville Elementary Nescopeck Elementary School Orange St Elementary School Danville Middle School Berwick Middle School Berwick Senior High School Danville Senior High School Columbia Day Care Program Holy Family Consolidated School Liberty Valley Elementary Salem Elementary School Note: Students and staff at Penn State Hazelton and the Luzerne Community Colleges at Berwick and Nanticoke will evacuate in their private vehicles.
Not listed in County emergency plans and are directed to the same host school assigned to nearby schools.
KLD Engineering, P.C.
Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-19 8-19 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table 8-4. Medical Facility Transit Demand 4 Bonham Nursing Center Stillwater 77 70 34 0 36 2 0 18 14 Johnson Personal Care Home Wapwallopen 18 18 14 4 0 1 1 0 20 Guardian Elder Care Center Nanticoke 110 100 64 14 22 3 4 11 21 Mercy Special Care Hospital Nanticoke 32 24 10 2 12 1 1 12*
21 Northeast Counseling Nanticoke 17 12 10 2 0 1 1 0 21 Villa Personal Care Nanticoke 76 50 48 2 0 2 1 0 22 Butler Valley Manor Home Drums 37 36 12 4 20 1 1 10 22 Fritzingertown Senior Living Drums 168 148 102 6 40 4 2 20 Community 24 Birchwood Nursing Home Nanticoke 120 110 80 10 20 3 3 10 C01111" mlull al Iuau S Berwick Hospital Center and Berwick 268 268 250 10 8 9 1 4 Retirement Village I_____I_
A nign percentage ot tne patients at tnis facility are speciai needs; tneretore, an ambuiance capacity OT i patient is usea Tor tnIs Tacliiy Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-20 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 0
Table 8-5. Summary of Transportation Resources Trnprtto Whechi Re0I 'BIC as A blne Reore Avilbl Fishing Creek Transportation (Columbia County) 1 Southern Columbia School District 35 Fishing Creek Transportation (Columbia County) 35 Brewington Transportation (Columbia County) 16 Bower Bus Company (Columbia County) 11 Tour World (Columbia County) 20 Berwick School District (Columbia County) 82 Bloomsburgh School District (Columbia County) 2 Joe & Jan's Charter Tours (Columbia County) 23 Area Agency on Aging (Columbia County) 14 Columbia County 12 Luzerne County 171 53 123
- Additional ambulances are available trom neighboring counties Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-21 8-21 KID Engineering, P.C.
KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table 8-6. Bus Route Descriptions Bs-1 Muhlenberg Christian Academy 929, 924, 932, 575, 1046, 1047, 1048, 1092, 573, 572 2 Hunlock Creek Elementary School 926, 927, 627, 398, 209, 407 919, 920, 921, 922, 923, 929, 924, 932, 575, 1046, 3 Huntington Mills Elementary School 14,14,19,53 1047, 1048, 1092, 573, 5727 4 Northwest Area High School 428, 430, 431, 221, 439, 609, 610 K.M. Smith Elementary, Pope John Paul II Catholic School, The Learning Station School 6 Keystone Job Corp High School & Drums 1037, 1036, 316, 491, 549 Elementary/Middle School 7 Valley Elementary/Middle School 511, 333, 513, 21, 106, 99, 104, 103 Sr.. I+k +Icc +. CA.... 377, 960, 389, 390, 888, 369, 239, 203, 199, 738, 368, 1I,,,
U juU CC" C111c" Gly 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 9 Beaver Main Elementary School 564, 295, 980 10 New Story Elementary 887, 961, 390, 888, 369, 239, 203, 199, 738, 368, 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 469, 240, 468, 747, 748, 249, 250, 251, 185, 20, 14, 11 Nescopeck Elementary School64626118 64, 62, 61, 168 214, 239, 203, 199, 738, 368, 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 12 Orange St Elementary School566059626118 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 13 Berwick Middle School 378, 959, 388, 389, 390, 888, 369, 239, 203, 199, 738, 13 368, 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 378, 959, 388, 389, 390, 888, 369, 239, 203, 199, 738, 368, 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 373, 371, 214, 239, 203, 199, 738, 368, 366, 364, 198, 15 Holy Family Consolidated School 39 0 56, 359, 70, 6 60, 0 59, 9 62, 2 61, 1 168 6
378, 959, 388, 389, 390, 888, 369, 239, 203, 199, 738, 3899383930883929231978 16 Salem Elementary School & Columbia H.S 368, 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 716, 717, 714, 475, 474, 254, 472, 253, 470, 469, 240, Johnson Personal Home Care & Transit Route 7677744544244223404920 17 Johnson P onal 468, 747, 748, 249, 250, 251, 185, 20, 14, 64, 62, 61,
- Hollenback Township 168 18 Bonham Nursing Center 439, 609, 610 19 Guardian Elder Care 284, 504, 501, 508, 1072 20 Mercy Special Care Hospital & Northeast 503, 501, 508, 1072 Counseling 21 Villa Personal Care 501, 508, 1072 73, 71, 80, 54, 51, 48, 42, 43, 44, 3, 39, 40, 175, 1154, 174, 1153, 173, 107, 101, 103 23 Fritzingertown Senior Living 1035, 1037, 1036, 316, 491, 549 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-22 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
B s.. S 0 0 *S .
24 Birchwood Nursing Home 1044,288,335 378, 959, 388, 389, 390, 888, 369, 239, 203,199, 738, 25 Berwick Hospital Center & Retirement Village 368, 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 26 Elmcroft of Berwick 199, 738, 368, 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 27 SCI Retreat 1043, 1042, 247, 209, 407 28 Transit Route - Mifflin Township 363, 251, 185, 20, 14, 64, 62, 61, 168 29 Transit Route - Beaver Township 295, 296, 981, 297, 635, 298, 299 744, 887, 961, 390, 888, 369, 239, 203, 199, 738, 368, 30 Transit Route - Berwick Borough 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 31 Transit Route - Black Creek Township 705, 706, 707, 511, 333, 513, 21, 106, 99, 104, 103 350, 368, 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 32 Transit Route - Briar Creek Borough 168 33 Transit Route - Butler Township 792, 188, 318, 317, 793, 571, 796, 545, 316, 491, 549 34 Transit Route - Conyngham Borough 512, 333, 513, 21, 106, 99, 104, 103 35 Transit Route - Conyngham Township 263, 264, 265, 266, 481, 267, 270, 271, 336 1070, 273, 1071, 272, 479, 866, 269, 865, 267, 270, 36 Transit Route - Dorrance Township 271, 336 37 Transit Route - Fishing Creek Township 948, 582, 581, 453, 229, 567, 226 38 Transit Route - Huntington Township 439, 609, 610 39 Transit Route - Nanticoke City 501, 508, 1072 722, 240, 468, 747, 748, 249, 250, 251, 185, 20, 14, 40 Transit Route - Nescopeck Borough 64, 62, 61, 168 41 Transit Route - Newport Township 283, 731, 286, 285, 1053, 1054, 811, 287, 1044, 288, 41__TransitRoute_-_NewportTownship_335 42 Transit Route - North Centre Township 965, 964, 690 43 Transit Route - Nuangola Borough 852, 853, 484, 120 201, 382, 380, 379, 388, 389, 390, 888, 369, 239, 203, 44 Transit Route - Salem Township 199, 738, 368, 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 45 Transit Route - Slocum Township 265, 266, 481, 267, 270, 271, 336 46 Transit Route - South Centre Township 69, 55, 66, 68, 63, 76, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 257, 186, 25, 26, 27, 187, 514, 333, 513, 21, 106, 99, 47 Transit Route - Sugarloaf Township 104, 103 928, 931, 224, 421, 423, 580, 579, 578, 576, 575, 48 Transit Route - Union Township 14,14,14 1046, 1047, 1048 869, 870, 871, 872, 873, 874, 875, 729, 377, 960, 389, 49 Transit Route - Briar Creek Township 390, 888, 369, 239, 203, 199, 738, 368, 366, 364, 198, 1 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 62, 61, 168 8-23 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Susquehanna Steam Electric Station KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Bus Route6*~ . S 6 - 0 6 6 168, 61, 62, 64, 14, 15, 158, 159, 160, 161, 1149, 23, 50 1-80 EB 162, 22, 163, 164, 165, 18, 34, 30, 29, 32, 16, 33, 36, 1152, 37, 52, 53, 54, 80, 71, 72, 79, 166 166, 79, 72, 71, 80, 54, 51, 48, 42, 1151, 36, 33, 16, 51 1-80WB 32, 29, 30, 34, 17, 165, 164, 163, 22, 162, 23, 1149, 1150, 161, 160, 159, 158, 15, 14, 64, 62, 61, 168 52 1-81 NB 103, 101, 107, 173, 1153, 174, 1154, 175, 40, 39, 3, 44, 46, 49, 831, 672, 176, 384, 110, 111, 177, 114 53 1-81 SB 114, 177, 111, 110,174, 176, 672, 831, 49, 46, 44, 3, 384,1153, 39, 40, 175, 1154, 173, 107, 101, 103 54 US-11EB 207, 206, 205, 600, 602, 604, 397, 370, 208, 404, 183, 182,402,1042,247,209,407 391, 392, 204, 77, 78, 386, 202, 201, 382, 380, 379, 55 US-1i WB 388, 389, 390, 888, 369, 239, 203, 199, 738, 368, 366, 364, 198, 359, 70, 56, 60, 59, 58,343, 57, 55, 69 GNA Educational Center, GNA Elementary 56 School, Greater Neck High School, JFK 506, 508, 1072 Elementary School Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-24 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table 8-7. School Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-25 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table 8-8. School Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-26 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table 8-9. School Evacuation Time Estimates - Snow oeaver IVlaln riementar ry zcnool 1..LU U.O OU.Q I Z V.,I Berwick Middle School 110 15 7.7 6.6 70 16.2 33 Berwick Senior High School 110 15 7.7 6.6 70 15.0 31 Columbia Day Care Program 110 15 7.7 6.6 70 19.0 38 Fourteenth Street Elementary 110 15 7.3 6.3 70 14.7 30 Holy Family Consolidated School 110 15 6.2 6.6 57 19.0 38 New Story Elementary 110 15 6.7 5.8 69 15.4 31 Nescopeck Elementary School 110 15 8.2 29.9 17 15.4 31 Orange St Elementary School 110 15 6.1 6.4 57 16.2 33 Salem Elementary School 110 15 7.7 6.6 70 38 Drums Elementary/Middle School 110 15 1.8 35.3 4 8.1 1/
GNA Educational Center 110 15 0.5 13.1 3 2.1 5 GNA Elementary School 110 15 0.5 13.1 3 2.1 5 Greater Nanticoke High School 110 15 0.5 13.1 3 2.1 5 Hunlock Creek Elementary School 110 15 4.7 5.2 55 17.9 36 Huntington Mills Elementary School 110 15 5.7 12.8 27 15.2 31 JFK Elementary School 110 15 0.5 13.1 3 2.1 5 K.M. Smith Elementary School 110 15 2.4 5.7 26 2.1 5 Keystone Job Corp High School 110 15 1.7 35.3 3 8.1 17 Muhlenberg Christian Academy 110 15 2.3 7.2 20 15.2 31 Northwest Area High School 110 15 5.7 35.6 10 19.7 40 Penn State Hazelton 110 15 0.8 28.3 2 24.1 49 Pope John Paul IICatholic School 110 15 1.4 5.8 15 2.1 5 Rice Elementary 110 15 Located outside of the EPZ 5.7 12 The Learning Station School 1 10 15 2.0 5.8 22 2.1 5 Valley Elementary/Middle School 110 15 2.7 I 8.0 16 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-27 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table 8-10. Summary of Transit-Dependent Bus Routes No. of Lengtho Route~~ Bue0 RASatPitMncplt m.
1 1 23 Beaver Township 4.4 2 10 10, 11, 25 Berwick Borough 7.4 3 2 1,15,16 Black Creek Township 7.4 4 1 11, 25 Briar Creek Borough 4.2 5 3 11,25 Briar Creek Township 10.1 6 6 22 Butler Township 4.6 7 3 16, 15 Conyngham Borough 2.5 8 3 9, 18 17 Conyngham Township 10.3 9 2 17 Dorrance Township 4.7 10 1 6 Fishing Creek Township 4.2 11 1 14, 13, 12 24 Hollenback Township 17.0 12 3 2 Hunlock Township 4.3 13 3 4 Huntington Township 4.0 14 2 24 Mifflin Township 5.5 15 45 21 Nanticoke City 0.9 16 3 12, 24 Nescopeck Borough/Township 8.1 17 5 20, 21 Newport Township 4.4 18 1 26 North Centre Township 1.1 19 1 19 Nuangola Borough 1.0 20 5 7, 10, 11, 25 Salem Township 8.0 21 1 8 Shickshinny Borough 7.1 22 1 18, 17 Slocum Township 6.1 23 1 25 South Centre Township 2.3 24 2 15, 16 Sugarloaf Township 6.0 25 2 2, 3 Union Township 7.0 Totakl: I _10'Q8 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-28 KLD Engineering, P.C.
0 Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
0 Table 8-11. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather 1 1 90 4.4 43.1 6 30 20.7 31 5 10 44 30 1,2 80 7.4 10.9 41 30 45.4 68 5 10 91 30 3,4 90 7.4 11.2 40 30 45.4 68 5 10 91 30 2 5,6 100 7.4 12.6 35 30 45.4 68 5 10 91 30 7,8 110 7.4 12.9 34 30 45.4 68 5 10 91 30 1 9,10,11 120 7.4 13.2 34 30 45.4 68 5 10 91 30 1 90 7.4 40.9 11 30 14.8 22 5 10 44 30 3
2 120 7.4 41.5 11 30 14.8 22 5 10 43 30 4 1 90 4.2 26.7 9 30 43.2 65 5 10 76 30 1 90 10.1 13.0 46 30 30.2 45 5 10 76 30 5 2 105 10.1 15.2 40 30 30.2 45 5 10 76 30 3 120 10.1 16.5 37 30 30.2 45 5 10 76 30 1,2 90 4.6 42.3 7 30 16.1 24 5 10 37 30 6 3,4 105 4.6 42.1 7 30 16.1 24 5 10 37 30 5,6 120 4.6 42.1 7 30 16.1 24 5 10 37 30 1 90 2.5 32.8 4 30 14.8 22 5 10 30 30 7
2 120 2.5 34.4 4 30 14.8 22 5 10 30 30 8 1 90 10.3 42.7 15 30 29.7 45 5 10 74 30 1 90 4.7 37.7 7 30 29.7 45 5 10 59 30 9
2 120 4.7 37.7 7 30 29.7 45 5 10 59 30 10 1 90 4.2 40.5 6 30 34.3 51 5 10 64 30 11 1 90 17.0 36.5 28 30 17.0 26 5 10 73 30 1 90 4.3 13.0 20 30 28.1 42 5 10 54 30 12 2 120 4.3 16.0 16 30 28.1 42 5 10 54 30 1 90 4.0 44.1 5 30 34.2 51 5 10 63 30 13
_____ 2 120 4.0 44.2 5 30 34.2 51 5 10 63 30 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-29 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
1 90 5.5 43.5 8 30 34.4 52 5 14 . +- " -
2 120 5.5 46.9 7 30 34.4 52 5
_________ + 4 1,2 80 0.9 6.0 9 30 28.9 43 5 10 46 30 3,4 90 0.9 6.6 8 30 28.9 43 5 10 46 30 15 5,6 100 0.9 6.7 8 30 28.9 43 5 10 46 30 7,8 110 0.9 7.3 7 30 28.9 43 5 10 46 30 9,10,11 120 0.9 7.2 8 30 28.9 43 5 10 46 30 1 90 8.1 29.7 16 30 34.4 52 5 10 73 30 16 2 120 8.1 34.8 14 30 34.4 52 5 10 73 30 1,2 90 4.4 17.2 15 30 28.4 43 5 10 56 30 17 3,4 105 4.4 19.7 13 30 28.4 43 5 10 56 30 5 120 4.4 25.0 11 30 28.4 43 5 10 56 30 18 1 90 1.1 55.0 1 30 28.4 43 5 10 45 30 19 1 90 1.0 35.2 2 30 30.3 45 5 10 49 30 1 90 8.0 11.7 41 30 34.4 52 5 10 76 30 20 2 120 8.0 13.8 35 30 30 34.4 52 5 10 76 21 1 90 7.1 14.4 30 30 34.4 52 5 10 72 30 22 1 90 6.1 42.3 9 30 30.1 45 5 10 63 30 23 1 90 2.3 55.0 3 30 34.4 52 5 10 58 30 41.7 9 30 13.3 20 5 10 38 30 24 1,2 90 6.0 24 3,4 120 6.0 43.3 8 30 13.3 20 5 10 37 30 1,2 90 7.0 .9 22 30 29.7 44 5 10 64 30 25 +-F4 7E"n Q IQ 10 -7 AA I; in Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-30 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 0
0 Table 8-12. Transit-Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain 1 90 4.4 50.0 5 40 20.7 36 5 10 48 40 1,2 80 7.4 6.8 66 40 45.4 78 5 10 103 40 3,4 90 7.4 6.6 68 40 45.4 78 5 10 103 40 2 5,6 100 7.4 6.6 67 40 45.4 78 5 10 103 40 7,8 110 7.4 6.9 64 40 45.4 78 5 10 103 40 9,10,11 120 7.4 7.1 63 40 45.4 78 5 10 103 40 1 90 7.4 34.7 13 40 14.8 25 5 10 49 40 3
2 120 7.4 37.3 12 40 14.8 25 5 10 49 40 4 1 90 4.2 15.6 16 40 43.2 74 5 10 87 40 1 90 10.1 7.8 77 40 30.2 52 5 10 86 40 5 2 105 10.1 8.3 73 40 30.2 52 5 10 86 40 3 120 10.1 9.6 63 40 30.2 52 5 10 86 40 1,2 90 4.6 38.3 7 40 16.1 28 5 10 42 40 6 3,4 105 4.6 38.2 7 40 16.1 28 5 10 42 40 5,6 120 4.6 38.3 7 40 16.1 28 5 10 42 40 1 90 2.5 23.4 6 40 14.8 25 5 10 34 40 7
2 120 2.5 31.2 5 40 14.8 25 5 10 34 40 8 1 90 10.3 38.8 16 40 29.7 51 5 10 84 40 9 1 90 4.7 34.2 8 40 29.7 51 5 10 67 40 2 120 4.7 34.2 8 40 29.7 51 5 10 67 40 10 1 90 4.2 36.2 7 40 34.3 59 5 10 73 40 11 1 90 17.0 34.0 30 40 17.0 29 5 10 83 40 12 1 90 4.3 7.0 37 40 28.1 48 5 10 62 40 2 120 4.3 8.3 31 40 28.1 48 5 10 62 40 1 90 4.0 41.0 6 40 34.2 59 5 10 71 40 13
_____ 2 120 4.0 35.8 7 40 34.2 59 5 10 71 40 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-31 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-32 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 0
0 Table 8-13. Transit Dependent Evacuation Time Estimates - Snow 1 1 90 4.4 45.0 6 50 20.7 41 5 10 56 50 1,2 80 7.4 6.5 69 50 45.4 91 5 10 115 50 3,4 90 7.4 6.1 73 50 45.4 91 5 10 119 50 2 5,6 100 7.4 6.0 74 50 45.4 91 5 10 119 50 7,8 110 7.4 5.9 75 50 45.4 91 5 10 119 50 9,10,11 120 7.4 6.1 73 50 45.4 91 5 10 119 50 3 1 90 7.4 29.0 15 50 14.8 30 5 10 58 50 2 120 7.4 32.8 14 50 14.8 30 5 10 57 50 4 1 90 4.2 14.9 17 50 43.2 86 5 10 101 50 1 90 10.1 8.3 73 50 30.2 60 5 10 99 50 5 2 105 10.1 8.1 75 50 30.2 60 5 10 99 50 3 120 10.1 8.2 74 50 30.2 60 5 10 99 50 1,2 90 4.6 33.8 8 50 16.1 32 5 10 49 50 6 3,4 105 4.6 33.4 8 50 16.1 32 5 10 50 50 5,6 120 4.6 33.9 8 50 16.1 32 5 10 49 50 1 90 2.5 17.4 8 50 14.8 30 5 10 40 50 7
2 120 2.5 27.8 5 50 14.8 30 5 10 40 50 8 1 90 10.3 35.0 18 50 29.7 59 5 10 98 50 1 90 4.7 30.5 9 50 29.7 59 5 10 78 50 9
2 120 4.7 30.4 9 50 29.7 59 5 10 78 50 10 1 90 4.2 32.6 8 50 34.3 69 5 10 85 50 11 1 90 17.0 30.4 34 50 17.0 34 5 10 96 50 1 90 4.3 21.1 12 50 28.1 56 5 10 72 50 12 2 120 4.3 8.6 30 50 28.1 56 5 10 72 50 1 90 4.0 36.0 7 50 34.2 68 5 10 83 50 13
_____ 2 120 4.0 35.7 7 50 34.2 68 5 10 83 50 Rev. 0 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-33 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Evacuation rime Estimate Time Estimate Rev. 0
Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-34 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 0
Table 8-14. Special Facility Evacuation Time Estimates - Good Weather Berwick Hospital Ambulatory 90 1 250 30 8.1 35 235 Center and Wheelchair bound 90 5 10 50 8.1 30 2:50 Retirement Village Bedridden 90 15 8 30 8.1 35 235 90 1 80 30 0.5 1 2:05 Birchwood Ambulatory 90 5 10 50 0.5 1 2:25 Nursing Home Wheelchair bound Bedridden 90 15 20 30 0.5 1 2:05 Ambulatory 90 1 34 30 2.8 4 205 Bonham Nursing Wheelchair bound 90 5 0 0 2.8 4 1:35 Center Bedridden 90 15 36 30 2.8 4 205 90 1 12 12 8.8 10 1:55 Butler Valley Ambulatory 90 5 4 20 8.8 10 2:00 Manor Home Wheelchair bound Bedridden 90 15 20 30 8.8 10 2:10 Elmcroft of Ambulatory 90 1 0 0 4.6 14 1:45 ermcr Wheelchair bound 90 5 0 0 4.6 14 1:45 Berwick Bedridden 90 15 0 0 4.6 14 1:45 Fritzingertown Ambulatory 90 1 102 30 1.5 2 2:05 Senior Living Wheelchair bound 90 5 6 30 1.5 2 2:05 Community Bedridden 90 15 40 30 1.5 2 2:05 Ambulatory 90 1 64 30 2.0 19 2:20 GardianEer Wheelchair bound 90 5 14 70 2.0 9 2:50 Care Center Bedridden 90 15 22 30 2.0 19 2:20 Johnson Ambulatory 90 1 14 14 17.0 28 2:15 Personal Care Wheelchair bound 90 5 4 20 17.0 28 2:20 Home Bedridden 90 15 0 0 17.0 28 2:00 Ambulatory 90 1 10 10 1.7 12 1:55 Mercy Special Wheelchair bound 90 5 2 10 1.7 12 1:55 Bedridden 90 15 12 30 1.7 11 2:15 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-35 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-36 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table 8-15. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates - Rain Berwick Hospital Center and Retirement Village Bedridden 100 15 8 30 8.1 57 3:10 Ambulatory 100 1 80 30 0.5 1 2:15 Birchwood Nursing Home Wheelchair bound 100 5 10 50 0.5 1 2:35 Bedridden 100 15 20 30 0.5 1 2:15 Ambulatory 100 1 34 30 2.8 4 2:15 Bonham Nursing Wheelchair bound 100 5 0 0 2.8 4 1:45 Center ______ ____
Bedridden 100 15 36 30 2.8 4 2:15 Ambulatory 100 1 12 12 8.8 11 2:05 Butler Valley Manor Home Wheelchair bound 100 5 4 20 8.8 11 2:15 Bedridden 100 15 20 30 8.8 11 2:25 Elmcroft of Ambulatory 100 1 0 0 4.6 27 2:10 ermcr Wheelchair bound 100 5 0 0 4.6 27 2:10 Berwick ______
Bedridden 100 15 0 0 4.6 27 2:10 Fritzingertown Ambulatory 100 1 102 30 1.5 2 2:15 Senior Living Wheelchair bound 100 5 6 30 1.5 2 2:15 Community Bedridden 100 15 40 30 1.5 2 2:15 Ambulatory 100 1 64 30 2.0 25 2:35 GardianEer Wheelchair bound 100 5 14 70 2.0 16 3:10 Care Center
-Bedridden 100 15 22 30 2.0 25 2:35 Johnson Ambulatory 100 1 14 14 17.0 30 2:25 Personal Care Wheelchair bound 100 5 4 20 17.0 30 2:30 Home Bedridden 100 15 0 0 17.0 30 2:10 Ambulatory 100 1 10 10 1.7 13 2,05 Mercy Special Wheelchair bound 100 5 2 10 1.7 13 2:05 Bedridden 100 15 12 30 1.7 12 2:25 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-37 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-38 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
Table 8-16. Medical Facility Evacuation Time Estimates - Snow Berwick Hospital Ambulatory 110 1 2030 8.1 66 3:30 Center and Wheelchair bound 110 5 1050 8.1 56 3:40 Retirement Village Bedridden 110 15 8 30 8.1 66 3:30 Birchwood Ambulatory 110 1 80 30 0.5 1 2:25 Nusnoe Wheelchair bound 110 5 10 50 0.5 1 2:45 Medical Bedridden 110 15 20 30 0.5 1 2:25 Nursing Ambulatory 110 1 34 30 2.8 S 2:25 Bonhamt snd Wheelchair bound 110 5 0 0 2.8 5 1:55 Center Village Bedridden 110 15 36 30 2.8 5 23:25 Ambulatory 110 1 12 12 8.8 12 2:15 Muanor Home Wheelchair bound 110 5 4 20 8.8 12 2:25 Bedridden 110 15 20 30 8.8 12 2:35 Bnmc Nursing Ambulatory 110 1 0 0 4.6 34 2:25 enmcr Wheelchair bound 110 5 0 0 4.6 34 2:25 Berwick Bedridden 110 15 0 0 4.6 34 2:25 Fritzingertown Ambulatory 110 1 102 30 1.5 3 2:25 Senior Living Wheelchair bound 110 5 6 30 1.5 3 2:25 Community Bedridden 110 15 40 30 1.8 3 2-25 Guardia of Ambulatory 110 1 64 30 2.0 23 2:45 Gurdia l Wheelchair bound 110 5 14 70 2.0 21 3:25 Care Center Bedridden 110 is 22 30 2.0 23 2:45 Johnson Ambulatory 110 1 14 14 17.0 33 2:40 Personal Care Wheelchair bound 110 5 4 20 17.0 33 2:45 Home Bedridden 110 15 0 0 17.0 33 2:25 Ambulatory 110 1 10 10 1.7 10 2:10 Mercy Special Wheelchair bound 110 5 2 10 1.7 10 2:10 Care Hospital Bedridden 110 15 12 30 1.7 14 2.35 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-39 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
KID Engineering, P.C.
Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-40 8-40 KLD Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0 0
Table 8-17. Homebound Special Needs Population Evacuation Time Estimates Good 90 10 20 Ambulances 105 53 2 Rain 100 15 11 15 2:35 Snow 110 13D 2:45 Maximum ETE 2:45 AvrgTE: 2:35 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 8-41 KID Engineering, P.C.
Evacuation Time Estimate Rev. 0
9 TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT STRATEGY This section discusses the suggested traffic control and management strategy that is designed to expedite the movement of evacuating traffic. The resources required to implement this strategy include:
- Personnel with the capabilities of performing the planned control functions of traffic guides (preferably, not necessarily, law enforcement officers).
- Traffic Control Devices to assist these personnel in the performance of their tasks. These devices should comply with the guidance of the Manual of Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) published by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) of the U.S.D.O.T. All state and most county transportation agencies have access to the MUTCD, which is available on-line: http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov which provides access to the official PDF version.
" A plan that defines all locations, provides necessary details and is documented in a format that is readily understood by those assigned to perform traffic control.
The functions to be performed in the field are:
- 1. Facilitate evacuating traffic movements that safely expedite travel out of the EPZ.
- 2. Discourage traffic movements that move evacuating vehicles in a direction which takes them significantly closer to the power plant, or which interferes with the efficient flow of other evacuees.
We employ the terms "facilitate" and "discourage" rather than "enforce" and "prohibit" to indicate the need for flexibility in performing the traffic control function. There are always legitimate reasons for a driver to prefer a direction other than that indicated. For example:
" A driver may be traveling home from work or from another location, to join other family members prior to evacuating.
" An evacuating driver may be travelling to pick up a relative, or other evacuees.
- The driver may be an emergency worker en route to perform an important activity.
The implementation of a plan must also be flexible enough for the application of sound judgment by the traffic guide.
The traffic management plan is the outcome of the following process:
- 1. The existing TCPs and ACPs identified by the offsite agencies in their existing emergency plans serve as the basis of the traffic management plan, as per NUREG/CR-7002. As stated in these plans, the State Police will provide traffic control along the major evacuation routes; the municipal police force is responsible for the execution of traffic control procedures on municipal evacuation routes.
- 3. Computer analysis of the evacuation traffic flow environment (see Figures 7-3 through 7-7). As discussed in Section 7.3, congestion within the EPZ is clear by 3 hours3.472222e-5 days <br />8.333333e-4 hours <br />4.960317e-6 weeks <br />1.1415e-6 months <br /> and 10 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 9-1 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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minutes after the ATE. No additional TCPs or ACPs are identified as a result of this study; the existing traffic management plans are adequate.
The use of Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) technologies can reduce manpower and equipment needs, while still facilitating the evacuation process. Dynamic Message Signs (DMS) can be placed within the EPZ to provide information to travelers regarding traffic conditions, route selection, and reception center information. DMS can also be placed outside of the EPZ to warn motorists to avoid using routes that may conflict with the flow of evacuees away from the power plant. Highway Advisory Radio (HAR) can be used to broadcast information to evacuees en route through their vehicle stereo systems.. Automated Traveler Information Systems (ATIS) can also be used to provide evacuees with information. Internet websites can provide traffic and evacuation route information before the evacuee begins their trip, while on board navigation systems (GPS units), cell phones, and pagers can be used to provide information en route. These are only several examples of how ITS technologies can benefit the evacuation process. Consideration should be given that ITS technologies be used to facilitate the evacuation process, and any additional signage placed should consider evacuation needs.
The ETE analysis treated all controlled intersections that are existing TCP locations in the offsite agency plans as being controlled by actuated signals.
Chapters 2N and 5G, and Part 6 of the 2009 MUTCD are particularly relevant and should be reviewed during emergency response training.
The ETE calculations reflect the assumption that all "external-external" trips are interdicted and diverted after 90 minutes have elapsed from the ATE.
All transit vehicles and other responders entering the EPZ to support the evacuation are assumed to be unhindered by personnel manning ACPs and TCPs.
Study Assumptions 5 and 6 in Section 2.3 discuss ACP and TCP staffing schedules and operations.
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10 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation routes are comprised of two distinct components:
" Routing from an ERPA being evacuated to the boundary of the Evacuation Region and thence out of the EPZ.
- Routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers.
Evacuees will select routes within the EPZ in such a way as to minimize their exposure to risk.
This expectation is met by the DYNEV II model routing traffic away from the location of the plant, to the extent practicable. The DTRAD model satisfies this behavior by routing traffic so as to balance traffic demand relative to the available highway capacity to the extent possible.
See Appendices B through D for further discussion.
The routing of transit-dependent evacuees from the EPZ boundary to reception centers or host schools is designed to minimize the amount of travel outside the EPZ, from the points where these routes cross the EPZ boundary.
Figure 10-1 shows the reception centers and host schools for-evacuees. The major evacuation routes for the EPZ are presented in Figure 10-2.
It is assumed that all school evacuees will be taken to the appropriate host schools and subsequently picked up by parents or guardians. Transit-dependent evacuees are transported to the nearest reception center for each county. This study does not consider the transport of evacuees from reception centers to mass care centers.
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Figure 10-1. General Population Reception Centers and Host Schools Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 10-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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Figure 10-2. Evacuation Route Map Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 10-3 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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11 SURVEILLANCE OF EVACUATION OPERATIONS There is a need for surveillance of traffic operations during the evacuation. There is also a need to clear any blockage of roadways arising from accidents or vehicle disablement. Surveillance can take several forms.
- 1. Traffic control personnel, located at Traffic Control and Access Control points, provide fixed-point surveillance.
- 2. Ground patrols may be undertaken along well-defined paths to ensure coverage of those highways that serve as major evacuation routes.
- 3. Aerial surveillance of evacuation operations may also be conducted using helicopter or fixed-wing aircraft, if available.
- 4. Cellular phone calls (if cellular coverage exists) from motorists may also provide direct field reports of road blockages.
These concurrent surveillance procedures are designed to provide coverage of the entire EPZ as well as the area around its periphery. It is the responsibility of the counties to support an emergency response system that can receive messages from the field and be in a position to respond to any reported problems in a timely manner. This coverage should quickly identify, and expedite the response to any blockage caused by a disabled vehicle.
Tow Vehicles In a low-speed traffic environment, any vehicle disablement is likely to arise due to a low-speed collision, mechanical failure or the exhaustion of its fuel supply. In any case, the disabled vehicle can be pushed onto the shoulder, thereby restoring traffic flow. Past experience in other emergencies indicates that evacuees who are leaving an area often perform activities such as pushing a disabled vehicle to the side of the road without prompting.
While the need for tow vehicles is expected to be low under the circumstances described above, it is still prudent to be prepared for such a need. Consideration should be given that tow trucks with a supply of gasoline be deployed at strategic locations within, or just outside, the EPZ. These locations should be selected so that:
" They permit access to key, heavily loaded, evacuation routes.
" Responding tow trucks would most likely travel counter-flow relative to evacuating traffic.
Consideration should also be given that the state and local emergency management agencies encourage gas stations to remain open during the evacuation.
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12 CONFIRMATION TIME It is necessary to confirm that the evacuation process is effective in the sense that the public is complying with the Advisory to Evacuate. The EPZ county radiological emergency plans do not discuss a procedure for confirming evacuation. Should procedures not already exist, we suggest an alternative or complementary approach.
The procedure we suggest employs a stratified random sample and a telephone survey. The size of the sample is dependent on the expected number of households that do not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate. We believe it is reasonable to assume, for the purpose of estimating sample size that at least 80 percent of the population within the EPZ will comply with the Advisory to Evacuate. On this basis, an analysis could be undertaken (see Table 12-1) to yield an estimated sample size of approximately 300.
The confirmation process should start at about 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, which is when approximately 90 percent of evacuees have completed their mobilization activities (see Table 5-9). At this time, virtually all evacuees will have departed on their respective trips and the local telephone system will be largely free of traffic.
As indicated in Table 12-1, approximately 7Y2 person hours are needed to complete the telephone survey. If six people are assigned to this task, each dialing a different set of telephone exchanges (e.g., each person can be assigned a different set of ERPA), then the confirmation process will extend over a timeframe of about 75 minutes. Thus, the confirmation should be completed before the evacuated area is cleared. Of course, fewer people would be needed for this survey if the Evacuation Region were only a portion of the EPZ. Use of modern automated computer controlled dialing equipment or other technologies (e.g., reverse 911 or equivalent) can significantly reduce the manpower requirements and the time required to undertake this type of confirmation survey.
If this method is indeed used by the offsite agencies, consideration should be given to maintain a list of telephone numbers within the EPZ in the EOC at all times. Such a list could be purchased from vendors and should be periodically updated. As indicated above, the confirmation process should not begin until 2 hours2.314815e-5 days <br />5.555556e-4 hours <br />3.306878e-6 weeks <br />7.61e-7 months <br /> after the Advisory to Evacuate, to ensure that households have had enough time to mobilize. This 2-hour timeframe will enable telephone operators to arrive at their workplace, obtain a call list and prepare to make the necessary phone calls.
Should the number of telephone responses (i.e., people still at home) exceed 20 percent, then the telephone survey should be repeated after an hour's interval until the confirmation process is completed.
Other techniques should also be considered. After traffic volumes decline, the personnel manning TCPs can be redeployed to travel through residential areas to observe and to confirm evacuation activities.
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Table 12-1. Estimated Number of Telephone Calls Required for Confirmation of Evacuation Problem Definition Estimate number of phone calls, n, needed to ascertain the proportion, F of households that have not evacuated.
Reference:
Burstein, H., Attribute Sampling McGraw Hill, 1971 Given:
- No. of households plus other facilities, N, within the EPZ (est.) = 29,000
- Est. proportion, F, of households that will not evacuate = 0.20
" Allowable error margin, e: 0.05
- Confidence level, a: 0.95 (implies A = 1.96)
Applying Table 10 of cited reference, p = F+e = 0.25; q =1 -p = 0.75 A 2pq + e 3 n - e2 - 308 Finite population correction:
nN nF -- =305 n+N-1 Thus, some 300 telephone calls will confirm that approximately 20 percent of the population has not evacuated. If only 10 percent of the population does not comply with the Advisory to Evacuate, then the required sample size, nF = 214.
Est. Person Hours to complete 300 telephone calls Assume:
" Time to dial using touch tone (random selection of listed numbers): 30 seconds
" Time for 6 rings (no answer): 36 seconds
" Time for 4 rings plus short conversation: 60 sec.
- Interval between calls: 20 sec.
Person Hours:
300[30 + 0.8(36) + 0.2(60) + 20] 7.6 3600 3600 Susquehanna Steam Electric Station 12-2 KLD Eng~ineering., P.C.
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APPENDIX A Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms
A. GLOSSARY OF TRAFFIC ENGINEERING TERMS Table A-1. Glossary of Traffic Engineering Terms Term~I Deiito Analysis Network A graphical representation of the geometric topology of a physical roadway system, which is comprised of directional links and nodes.
Link A network link represents a specific, one-directional section of roadway. A link has both physical (length, number of lanes, topology, etc.) and operational (turn movement percentages, service rate, free-flow speed) characteristics.
Measures of Effectiveness Statistics describing traffic operations on a roadway network.
Node A network node generally represents an intersection of network links. A node has control characteristics, i.e., the allocation of service time to each approach link.
Origin A location attached to a network link, within the EPZ or Shadow Region, where trips are generated at a specified rate in vehicles per hour (vph). These trips enter the roadway system to travel to their respective destinations.
Prevailing Roadway and Relates to the physical features of the roadway, the nature (e.g.,
Traffic Conditions composition) of traffic on the roadway and the ambient conditions (weather, visibility, pavement conditions, etc.).
Service Rate Maximum rate at which vehicles, executing a specific turn maneuver, can be discharged from a section of roadway at the prevailing conditions, expressed in vehicles per second (vps) or vehicles per hour (vph).
Service Volume Maximum number of vehicles which can pass over a section of roadway in one direction during a specified time period with operating conditions at a specified Level of Service (The Service Volume at the upper bound of Level of Service, E, equals Capacity).
Service Volume is usually expressed as vehicles per hour (vph).
Signal Cycle Length The total elapsed time to display all signal indications, in sequence.
The cycle length is expressed in seconds.
Signal Interval A single combination of signal indications. The interval duration is expressed in seconds. A signal phase is comprised of a sequence of signal intervals, usually green, yellow, red.
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I ~ ~ ~ I TemDfnto Signal Phase A set of signal indications (and intervals) which services a particular combination of traffic movements on selected approaches to the intersection. The phase duration is expressed in seconds.
Traffic (Trip) Assignment A process of assigning traffic to paths of travel in such a way as to satisfy all trip objectives (i.e., the desire of each vehicle to travel from a specified origin in the network to a specified destination) and to optimize some stated objective or combination of objectives. In general, the objective is stated in terms of minimizing a generalized "cost". For example, "cost" may be expressed in terms of travel time.
Traffic Density The number of vehicles that occupy one lane of a roadway section of specified length at a point in time, expressed as vehicles per mile (vpm).
Traffic (Trip) Distribution A process for determining the destinations of all traffic generated at the origins. The result often takes the form of a Trip Table, which is a matrix of origin-destination traffic volumes.
Traffic Simulation A computer model designed to replicate the real-world operation of vehicles on a roadway network, so as to provide statistics describing traffic performance. These statistics are called Measures of Effectiveness.
Traffic Volume The number of vehicles that pass over a section of roadway in one direction, expressed in vehicles per hour (vph). Where applicable, traffic volume may be stratified by turn movement.
Travel Mode Distinguishes between private auto, bus, rail, pedestrian and air travel modes.
Trip Table or Origin- A rectangular matrix or table, whose entries contain the number Destination Matrix of trips generated at each specified origin, during a specified time period, that are attracted to (and travel toward) each of its specified destinations. These values are expressed in vehicles per hour (vph) or in vehicles.
Turning Capacity The capacity associated with that component of the traffic stream which executes a specified turn maneuver from an approach at an intersection.
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APPENDIX B DTRAD: Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution Model
B. DYNAMIC TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND DISTRIBUTION MODEL This section describes the integrated dynamic trip assignment and distribution model named DTRAD (Dynamic Traffic Assignment and Distribution) that is expressly designed for use in analyzing evacuation scenarios. DTRAD employs logit-based path-choice principles and is one of the models of the DYNEVII System. The DTRAD module implements path-based Dynamic Traffic Assignment (DTA) so that time dependent Origin-Destination (OD) trips are "assigned" to routes over the network based on prevailing traffic conditions.
To apply the DYNEV II System, the analyst must specify the highway network, link capacity information, the time-varying volume of traffic generated at all origin centroids and, optionally, a set of accessible candidate destination nodes on the periphery of the EPZ for selected origins.
DTRAD calculates the optimal dynamic trip distribution (i.e., trip destinations) and the optimal dynamic trip assignment (i.e., trip routing) of the traffic generated at each origin node traveling to its set of candidate destination nodes, so as to minimize evacuee travel "cost."
Overview of Integrated Distribution and Assignment Model The underlying premise is that the selection of destinations and routes is intrinsically coupled in an evacuation scenario. That is, people in vehicles seek to travel out of an area of potential risk as rapidly as possible by selecting the "best" routes. The model is designed to identify these "best" routes in a manner that realistically distributes vehicles from origins to destinations and routes them over the highway network, in a consistent and optimal manner, reflecting evacuee behavior.
For each origin, a set of "candidate destination nodes" is selected by the software logic and by the analyst to reflect the desire by evacuees to travel away from the power plant and to access major highways. The specific destination nodeswithin this set that are selected by travelers and the selection of the connecting paths of travel, are both determined by DTRAD. This determination is made by a logit-based path choice model in DTRAD, so as to minimize the trip "cost", as discussed later.
The traffic loading on the network and the consequent operational traffic environment of the network (density, speed, throughput on each link) vary over time as the evacuation takes place.
The DTRAD model, which is interfaced with the DYNEV simulation model, executes a succession of "sessions" wherein it computes the optimal routing and selection of destination nodes for the conditions that exist at that time.
Interfacing the DYNEV Simulation Model with DTRAD The DYNEV II system reflects NRC guidance that evacuees will seek to travel in a general direction away from the location of the hazardous event. An algorithm was developed to support the DTRAD model in dynamically varying the Trip Table (O-D matrix) over time from one DTRAD session to the next. Another algorithm executes a "mapping" from the specified "geometric" network (link-node analysis network) that represents the physical highway system, to a "path" network that represents the vehicle [turn] movements. DTRAD computations are performed on the "path" network: DYNEV simulation model, on the "geometric" network.
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DTRAD Description DTRAD is the DTA module for the DYNEV II System.
When the road network under study is large, multiple routing options are usually available between trip origins and destinations. The problem of loading traffic demands and propagating them over the network links is called Network Loading and is addressed by DYNEVII using macroscopic traffic simulation modeling. Traffic assignment deals with computing the distribution of the traffic over the road network for given O-D demands and is a model of the route choice of the drivers. Travel demand changes significantly over time, and the road network may have time dependent characteristics, e.g., time-varying signal timing or reduced road capacity because of lane closure, or traffic congestion. To consider these time dependencies, DTA procedures are required.
The DTRAD DTA module represents the dynamic route choice behavior of drivers, using the specification of dynamic origin-destination matrices as flow input. Drivers choose their routes through the network based on the travel cost they experience (as determined by the simulation model). This allows traffic to be distributed over the network according to the time-dependent conditions. The modeling principles of D-TRAD include:
" It is assumed that drivers not only select the best route (i.e., lowest cost path) but some also select less attractive routes. The algorithm implemented by DTRAD archives several "efficient" routes for each O-D pair from which the drivers choose.
- The choice of one route out of a set of possible routes is an outcome of "discrete choice modeling". Given a set of routes and their generalized costs, the percentages of drivers that choose each route is computed. The most prevalent model for discrete choice modeling is the logit model. DTRAD uses a variant of Path-Size-Logit model (PSI). PSL overcomes the drawback of the traditional multinomial logit model by incorporating an additional deterministic path size correction term to address path overlapping in the random utility expression.
" DTRAD executes the TA algorithm on an abstract network representation called "the path network" which is built from the actual physical link-node analysis network. This execution continues until a stable situation is reached: the volumes and travel times on the edges of the path network do not change significantly from one iteration to the next. The criteria for this convergence are defined by the user.
- Travel "cost" plays a crucial role in route choice. In DTRAD, path cost is a linear summation of the generalized cost of each link that comprises the path. The generalized cost for a link, a, is expressed as c = ata + + ysa.,
wherecais the generalized cost for link a, andca,fl, and yare cost coefficients for link travel time, distance, and supplemental cost, respectively. Distance and supplemental costs are defined as invariant properties of the network model, while travel time is a dynamic property dictated by prevailing traffic conditions. The DYNEV simulation model Susquehanna Steam Electric Station B-2 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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computes travel times on all edges in the network and DTRAD uses that information to constantly update the costs of paths. The route choice decision model in the next simulation iteration uses these updated values to adjust the route choice behavior. This way, traffic demands are dynamically re-assigned based on time dependent conditions.
The interaction between the DTRAD traffic assignment and DYNEV II simulation models is depicted in Figure B-1. Each round of interaction is called a Traffic Assignment Session (TA session). A TA session is composed of multiple iterations, marked as loop B in the figure.
The supplemental cost is based on the "survival distribution" (a variation of the exponential distribution).The Inverse Survival Function is a "cost" term in DTRAD to represent the potential risk of travel toward the plant:
Sa=- 13In (p), 0*< p < I; 13>0 d,
pdo dn = Distance of node, n, from the plant do =Distance from the plant where there is zero risk 13= Scaling factor The value of do = 15 miles, the outer distance of the shadow region. Note that the supplemental cost, Sa, of link, a, is (high, low), if its downstream node, n, is.(near, far from) the power plant.
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Network Equilibrium In 1952, John Wardrop wrote:
Under equilibrium conditions traffic arrangesitself in congested networks in such a way that no individual trip-maker can reduce his path costs by switching routes.
The above statement describes the "User Equilibrium" definition, also called the "Selfish Driver Equilibrium". It is a hypothesis that represents a [hopeful] condition that evolves over time as drivers search out alternative routes to identify those routes that minimize their respective "costs". It has been found that this "equilibrium" objective to minimize costs is largely realized by most drivers who routinely take the same trip over the same network at the same time (i.e.,
commuters). Effectively, such drivers "learn" which routes are best for them over time. Thus, the traffic environment "settles down" to a near-equilibrium state.
Clearly, since an emergency evacuation is a sudden, unique event, it does not constitute a long-term learning experience which can achieve an equilibrium state. Consequently, DTRAD was not designed as an equilibrium solution, but to represent drivers in a new and unfamiliar situation, who respond in a flexible manner to real-time information (either broadcast or observed) in such a way as to minimize their respective costs of travel.
KLD Engineering, p.c.
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Start of next DTRAD Session 0
Set To = Clock time.
Archive System State at To Define latest Link Turn Percentages Execute Simulation Model from B time, To to T1 (burn time)
.I Provide DTRAD with link MOE at time, T1 Execute DTRAD iteration; Get new Turn Percentages I
Retrieve System State at To; Apply new Link Turn Percents L DTRAD iteration converges?
No Yes Next iteration Simulate from To to T2 (DTA session duration)
Set Clock to T2f Figure B-1. Flow Diagram of Simulation-DTRAD Interface Susquehanna Steam Electric Station B-5 KLD Engineering, P.C.
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