ML12340A654
| ML12340A654 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 06/29/2012 |
| From: | Sheppard S - No Known Affiliation |
| To: | Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
| SECY RAS | |
| References | |
| RAS 22883, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01 | |
| Download: ML12340A654 (4) | |
Text
1 Rebuttal Population Distribution For Sensitivity Analysis Exhibit Prepared by Dr. Stephen Sheppard. Dated: June 29, 2012.
TABLE 1: This spreadsheet shows Entergys population increase of 729,521 persons, an increase of approximately 3.79%, distributed proportionately by grid element. Each cell in the spreadsheet shows the number of individuals that should be added to the existing population estimate for each grid element. To get each number, I multiplied the pre-existing population estimate for each grid element by 3.79%. Since the percentage was rounded to 3.79%, some minor adjustments were necessary to make the increase equal 729,521 persons.
Scenario1:Samepopulationincreasespreadproportionaltoexisting
population
0.20
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00
9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00
0.3219
1.6093
3.2187
4.828
6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674
N
0
0
10
78
95 34
35 46 53
57 64 871 1163 1503 1937
NNE
1
0
6
74
110 78
45 53 60
68 73 1068 1514 2133 2550
NE
1
7
34
81
112 146
148 116 93
76 73 1116 2037 2373 1565
ENE
1
14
48
81
113 131
171 200 233
264 276 2840 4518 5773 6690
E
1
15
46
81
111 144
168 209 212
273 306 4490 5946 7610 7906
ESE
1
16
48
81
113 136
140 146 218
257 281 4610 5473 2056 1304
SE
1
16
48
81
109 144
172 200 238
273 306 4247 3329 8970 14417
SSE
1
14
48
62
33 19
1 55 36
73 122 3730 18275 52365 46216
S
1
15
27
9
5 24
58 123 157
169 195 5130 44184 141602
120051
SSW
1
14
21
19
64 109
134 159 185
209 234 7687 15001 35005 39247
SW
1
8
7
59
86 111
136 159 165
203 233 6957 10505 7488 9336
WSW
0
0
24
62
83 111
135 152 159
161 164 2444 7937 4139 3257
W
0
0
32
61
86 107
90 68 54
67 77 1215 1934 2329 2177
WNW
0
0
36
62
85 51
43 54 57
67 79 1234 2071 2200 1128
NW
0
2
37
60
73 37
43 51 58
68 79 1236 2070 912 847
NNW
0
2
31
40
60 28
46 53 61
68 77 1201 1236 1047 1304
10
123
503
991
1338 1410
1565 1844 2039
2353 2639 50076 127193 277505
259932
Total
Population:
729521
United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit In the Matter of:
Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.
(Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)
ASLBP #: 07-858-03-LR-BD01 Docket #: 05000247 l 05000286 Exhibit #:
Identified:
Admitted:
Withdrawn:
Rejected:
Stricken:
Other:
NYS000409-00-BD01 10/15/2012 10/15/2012 NYS000409 Submitted: June 29, 2012
2 TABLE 2: This spreadsheet shows the population increases from Table 1 added to the pre-existing 2035 population estimate for each grid element. Although my opinion is that the population increases proposed by Entergy are too low, this is the proper distribution of those increases. As such, this is how Entergy should have entered the increases into the MACCS2 code to run its sensitivity analysis.
Scenario1:Samepopulationincreasespreadproportionaltoexistingpopulation
0.20
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00
9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00
0.3219
1.6093
3.2187
4.828
6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674
N
6
0
281
2137
2596 943
966 1269 1442
1560 1760 23826 31817 41123 52994
NNE
17
7
176
2017
3022 2129
1222 1441 1637
1866 1986 29208 41431 58359 69763
NE
18
200
917
2212
3076 3989
4058 3175 2557
2074 1988 30535 55729 64932 42826
ENE
18
378
1323
2213
3090 3584
4678 5482 6373
7224 7555 77696 123591
157948
183028
E
18
405
1264
2219
3045 3936
4592 5722 5799
7474 8382 122825
162666
208191
216300
ESE
18
425
1304
2217
3083 3728
3838 4003 5952
7040 7690 126125
149740
56236 35665
SE
18
426
1322
2219
2981 3952
4709 5479 6522
7467 8366 116193
91064 245396
394407
SSE
18
374
1316
1707
915 514
16 1497 984
1984 3336 102056
499978 1432614 1264386
S
18
415
728
255
129 644
1596 3376 4286
4624 5333 140341 1208780 3873941 3284357
SSW
18
391
583
519
1764 2991
3678 4346 5058
5726 6393 210292
410390
957654 1073714
SW
18
225
194
1625
2360 3027
3710 4347 4526
5561 6371 190329
287407
204850
255412
WSW
9
0
644
1685
2280 3035
3685 4166 4355
4416 4499 66872 217134
113241
89106
W
3
0
887
1663
2353 2922
2458 1855 1477
1842 2107 33241 52908 63709 59561
WNW
2
0
974
1686
2330 1392
1178 1473 1562
1823 2150 33762 56648 60177 30847
NW
2
47
1011
1649
2006 1009
1183 1402 1599
1849 2172 33808 56627 24958 23164
NNW
3
52
840
1091
1647 768
1250 1460 1681
1855 2105 32861 33805 28646 35678
Total
204
3345
13764
27114
36677 38563
42817 50493 55810
64385 72193 1369970 3479715 7591975 7111208
3 TABLE 3: This spreadsheet shows my population increase of 1,227,410 persons, an increase of approximately 6.38%, distributed proportionately by grid element. Each cell in the spreadsheet shows the number of individuals that should be added to the pre-existing 2035 population estimate for each grid element. To get each number, I multiplied the pre-existing population estimate for each grid element by 6.38%. Since the percentage was rounded to 6.38%, some minor adjustments were necessary to make the increase equal 1,227,410 persons.
0.20
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00
9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00
0.3219
1.6093
3.2187
4.828
6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748
14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674
N
0
0
17
131
160 58 59 78 89
96 108 1465 1957 2529 3259
NNE
1
0
11
124
186 131 75 89 101
115 122 1796 2548 3589 4290
NE
1
12
56
136
189 245 250 195 157
128 122 1878 3427 3993 2634
ENE
1
23
81
136
190 220 288 337 392
444 465 4778 7601 9714 11256
E
1
25
78
136
187 242 282 352 357
460 516 7554 10004 12804 13302
ESE
1
26
80
136
190 229 236 246 366
433 473 7757 9209 3458 2193
SE
1
26
81
136
183 243 290 337 401
459 514 7146 5600 15092 24256
SSE
1
23
81
105
56 32 1
92 61
122 205 6276 30748 88104 77758
S
1
26
45
16
8 40 98 208 264
284 328 8631 74339 238243 201985
SSW
1
24
36
32
109 184 226 267 311
352 393 12933 25239 58895 66032
SW
1
14
12
100
145 186 228 267 278
342 392 11705 17675 12598 15708
WSW
1
0
40
104
140 187 227 256 268
272 277 4113 13354 6964 5480
W
0
0
55
102
145 180 151 114 91
113 130 2044 3254 3918 3663
WNW
0
0
60
104
143 86 72 91 96
112 132 2076 3484 3701 1897
NW
0
3
62
101
123 62 73 86 98
114 134 2079 3482 1535 1425
NNW
0
3
52
67
101 47 77 90 103
114 129 2021 2079 1762 2194
11
205
847
1666
2255 2372 2633 3105 3433
3960 4440 84252 214000
466899 437332
Total
Population: 1227410
4 TABLE 4: This spreadsheet shows the population increases from Table 3 added to the pre-existing 2035 population estimate for each grid element. This spreadsheet reflects the proper distribution of my full population increase. A proper sensitivity analysis of my proposed population increases would input this population distribution to the MACCS2 code.
0.20
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00
9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00
0.3219
1.6093
3.2187
4.828
6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674
N
6
0
288
2190
2661 967 990 1301 1478
1599 1804 24420 32611 42149 54316
NNE
17
7
181
2067
3098 2182 1252 1477 1678
1913 2035 29936 42465 59815 71503
NE
18
205
939
2267
3153 4088 4160 3254 2621
2126 2037 31297 57119 66552 43895
ENE
18
387
1356
2268
3167 3673 4795 5619 6532
7404 7744 79634 126674
161889
187594
E
18
415
1296
2274
3121 4034 4706 5865 5944
7661 8592 125889 166724
213385
221696
ESE
18
435
1336
2272
3160 3821 3934 4103 6100
7216 7882 129272 153476
57638 36554
SE
18
436
1355
2274
3055 4051 4827 5616 6685
7653 8574 119092 93335 251518
404246
SSE
18
383
1349
1750
938 527 16 1534 1009
2033 3419 104602 512451 1468353 1295928
S
18
426
746
262
132 660 1636 3461 4393
4739 5466 143842 1238935 3970582 3366291
SSW
18
401
598
532
1809 3066 3770 4454 5184
5869 6552 215538 420628
981544 1100499
SW
18
231
199
1666
2419 3102 3802 4455 4639
5700 6530 195077 294577
209960
261784
WSW
10
0
660
1727
2337 3111 3777 4270 4464
4527 4612 68541 222551
116066
91329
W
3
0
910
1704
2412 2995 2519 1901 1514
1888 2160 34070 54228 65298 61047
WNW
2
0
998
1728
2388 1427 1207 1510 1601
1868 2203 34604 58061 61678 31616
NW
2
48
1036
1690
2056 1034 1213 1437 1639
1895 2227 34651 58039 25581 23742
NNW
3
53
861
1118
1688 787 1281 1497 1723
1901 2157 33681 34648 29361 36568
Total
205
3427
14108
27789
37594 39525 43885 51754 57204
65992 73994 1404146 3566522 7781369 7288608