ML12340A654

Official Exhibit - NYS000409-00-BD01 - Stephen C. Sheppard, Rebuttal Population Distribution for Sensitivity Analysis (June 2012)

ML12340A654
Person / Time
Site:	Indian Point
Issue date:	06/29/2012
From:	Sheppard S - No Known Affiliation
To:	Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
SECY RAS
References
RAS 22883, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01
Download: ML12340A654 (4)

Text

United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.

In the Matter of:

(Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)

ASLBP #: 07-858-03-LR-BD01 Docket #: 05000247 l 05000286 NYS000409 Exhibit #: NYS000409-00-BD01 Identified: 10/15/2012 Admitted: 10/15/2012 Withdrawn: Submitted: June 29, 2012 Rejected: Stricken:

Other:

Rebuttal Population Distribution For Sensitivity Analysis Exhibit Prepared by Dr. Stephen Sheppard. Dated: June 29, 2012.

TABLE 1: This spreadsheet shows Entergys population increase of 729,521 persons, an increase of approximately 3.79%, distributed proportionately by grid element. Each cell in the spreadsheet shows the number of individuals that should be added to the existing population estimate for each grid element. To get each number, I multiplied the pre-existing population estimate for each grid element by 3.79%. Since the percentage was rounded to 3.79%, some minor adjustments were necessary to make the increase equal 729,521 persons.

Scenario1:Samepopulationincreasespreadproportionaltoexisting

 population       

 0.20 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00

 0.3219 1.6093 3.2187 4.828 6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674

N 0 0 10 78 95 34 35 46 53 57 64 871 1163 1503 1937

NNE 1 0 6 74 110 78 45 53 60 68 73 1068 1514 2133 2550

NE 1 7 34 81 112 146 148 116 93 76 73 1116 2037 2373 1565

ENE 1 14 48 81 113 131 171 200 233 264 276 2840 4518 5773 6690

E 1 15 46 81 111 144 168 209 212 273 306 4490 5946 7610 7906

ESE 1 16 48 81 113 136 140 146 218 257 281 4610 5473 2056 1304

SE 1 16 48 81 109 144 172 200 238 273 306 4247 3329 8970 14417

SSE 1 14 48 62 33 19 1 55 36 73 122 3730 18275 52365 46216

S 1 15 27 9 5 24 58 123 157 169 195 5130 44184 141602 120051

SSW 1 14 21 19 64 109 134 159 185 209 234 7687 15001 35005 39247

SW 1 8 7 59 86 111 136 159 165 203 233 6957 10505 7488 9336

WSW 0 0 24 62 83 111 135 152 159 161 164 2444 7937 4139 3257

W 0 0 32 61 86 107 90 68 54 67 77 1215 1934 2329 2177

WNW 0 0 36 62 85 51 43 54 57 67 79 1234 2071 2200 1128

NW 0 2 37 60 73 37 43 51 58 68 79 1236 2070 912 847

NNW 0 2 31 40 60 28 46 53 61 68 77 1201 1236 1047 1304

 10 123 503 991 1338 1410 1565 1844 2039 2353 2639 50076 127193 277505 259932

               

Total

              Population: 729521

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TABLE 2: This spreadsheet shows the population increases from Table 1 added to the pre-existing 2035 population estimate for each grid element. Although my opinion is that the population increases proposed by Entergy are too low, this is the proper distribution of those increases. As such, this is how Entergy should have entered the increases into the MACCS2 code to run its sensitivity analysis.

 Scenario1:Samepopulationincreasespreadproportionaltoexistingpopulation       

 0.20 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00

 0.3219 1.6093 3.2187 4.828 6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674

N 6 0 281 2137 2596 943 966 1269 1442 1560 1760 23826 31817 41123 52994

NNE 17 7 176 2017 3022 2129 1222 1441 1637 1866 1986 29208 41431 58359 69763

NE 18 200 917 2212 3076 3989 4058 3175 2557 2074 1988 30535 55729 64932 42826

ENE 18 378 1323 2213 3090 3584 4678 5482 6373 7224 7555 77696 123591 157948 183028

E 18 405 1264 2219 3045 3936 4592 5722 5799 7474 8382 122825 162666 208191 216300

ESE 18 425 1304 2217 3083 3728 3838 4003 5952 7040 7690 126125 149740 56236 35665

SE 18 426 1322 2219 2981 3952 4709 5479 6522 7467 8366 116193 91064 245396 394407

SSE 18 374 1316 1707 915 514 16 1497 984 1984 3336 102056 499978 1432614 1264386

S 18 415 728 255 129 644 1596 3376 4286 4624 5333 140341 1208780 3873941 3284357

SSW 18 391 583 519 1764 2991 3678 4346 5058 5726 6393 210292 410390 957654 1073714

SW 18 225 194 1625 2360 3027 3710 4347 4526 5561 6371 190329 287407 204850 255412

WSW 9 0 644 1685 2280 3035 3685 4166 4355 4416 4499 66872 217134 113241 89106

W 3 0 887 1663 2353 2922 2458 1855 1477 1842 2107 33241 52908 63709 59561

WNW 2 0 974 1686 2330 1392 1178 1473 1562 1823 2150 33762 56648 60177 30847

NW 2 47 1011 1649 2006 1009 1183 1402 1599 1849 2172 33808 56627 24958 23164

NNW 3 52 840 1091 1647 768 1250 1460 1681 1855 2105 32861 33805 28646 35678

Total 204 3345 13764 27114 36677 38563 42817 50493 55810 64385 72193 1369970 3479715 7591975 7111208

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TABLE 3: This spreadsheet shows my population increase of 1,227,410 persons, an increase of approximately 6.38%, distributed proportionately by grid element. Each cell in the spreadsheet shows the number of individuals that should be added to the pre-existing 2035 population estimate for each grid element. To get each number, I multiplied the pre-existing population estimate for each grid element by 6.38%. Since the percentage was rounded to 6.38%, some minor adjustments were necessary to make the increase equal 1,227,410 persons.

 0.20 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00

 0.3219 1.6093 3.2187 4.828 6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674

N 0 0 17 131 160 58 59 78 89 96 108 1465 1957 2529 3259

NNE 1 0 11 124 186 131 75 89 101 115 122 1796 2548 3589 4290

NE 1 12 56 136 189 245 250 195 157 128 122 1878 3427 3993 2634

ENE 1 23 81 136 190 220 288 337 392 444 465 4778 7601 9714 11256

E 1 25 78 136 187 242 282 352 357 460 516 7554 10004 12804 13302

ESE 1 26 80 136 190 229 236 246 366 433 473 7757 9209 3458 2193

SE 1 26 81 136 183 243 290 337 401 459 514 7146 5600 15092 24256

SSE 1 23 81 105 56 32 1 92 61 122 205 6276 30748 88104 77758

S 1 26 45 16 8 40 98 208 264 284 328 8631 74339 238243 201985

SSW 1 24 36 32 109 184 226 267 311 352 393 12933 25239 58895 66032

SW 1 14 12 100 145 186 228 267 278 342 392 11705 17675 12598 15708

WSW 1 0 40 104 140 187 227 256 268 272 277 4113 13354 6964 5480

W 0 0 55 102 145 180 151 114 91 113 130 2044 3254 3918 3663

WNW 0 0 60 104 143 86 72 91 96 112 132 2076 3484 3701 1897

NW 0 3 62 101 123 62 73 86 98 114 134 2079 3482 1535 1425

NNW 0 3 52 67 101 47 77 90 103 114 129 2021 2079 1762 2194

 11 205 847 1666 2255 2372 2633 3105 3433 3960 4440 84252 214000 466899 437332

               

Total

              Population: 1227410

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TABLE 4: This spreadsheet shows the population increases from Table 3 added to the pre-existing 2035 population estimate for each grid element. This spreadsheet reflects the proper distribution of my full population increase. A proper sensitivity analysis of my proposed population increases would input this population distribution to the MACCS2 code.

 0.20 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00

 0.3219 1.6093 3.2187 4.828 6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674

N 6 0 288 2190 2661 967 990 1301 1478 1599 1804 24420 32611 42149 54316

NNE 17 7 181 2067 3098 2182 1252 1477 1678 1913 2035 29936 42465 59815 71503

NE 18 205 939 2267 3153 4088 4160 3254 2621 2126 2037 31297 57119 66552 43895

ENE 18 387 1356 2268 3167 3673 4795 5619 6532 7404 7744 79634 126674 161889 187594

E 18 415 1296 2274 3121 4034 4706 5865 5944 7661 8592 125889 166724 213385 221696

ESE 18 435 1336 2272 3160 3821 3934 4103 6100 7216 7882 129272 153476 57638 36554

SE 18 436 1355 2274 3055 4051 4827 5616 6685 7653 8574 119092 93335 251518 404246

SSE 18 383 1349 1750 938 527 16 1534 1009 2033 3419 104602 512451 1468353 1295928

S 18 426 746 262 132 660 1636 3461 4393 4739 5466 143842 1238935 3970582 3366291

SSW 18 401 598 532 1809 3066 3770 4454 5184 5869 6552 215538 420628 981544 1100499

SW 18 231 199 1666 2419 3102 3802 4455 4639 5700 6530 195077 294577 209960 261784

WSW 10 0 660 1727 2337 3111 3777 4270 4464 4527 4612 68541 222551 116066 91329

W 3 0 910 1704 2412 2995 2519 1901 1514 1888 2160 34070 54228 65298 61047

WNW 2 0 998 1728 2388 1427 1207 1510 1601 1868 2203 34604 58061 61678 31616

NW 2 48 1036 1690 2056 1034 1213 1437 1639 1895 2227 34651 58039 25581 23742

NNW 3 53 861 1118 1688 787 1281 1497 1723 1901 2157 33681 34648 29361 36568

Total 205 3427 14108 27789 37594 39525 43885 51754 57204 65992 73994 1404146 3566522 7781369 7288608

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