ML12334A513
| ML12334A513 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 09/30/2010 |
| From: | New York Independent System Operator |
| To: | Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
| SECY RAS | |
| References | |
| RAS 21536, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR | |
| Download: ML12334A513 (8) | |
Text
United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit In the Matter of:
Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.
(Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)
ASLBP #: 07-858-03-LR-BD01 Docket #: 05000247 l 05000286 Exhibit #:
Identified:
Admitted:
Withdrawn:
Rejected:
Stricken:
Other:
NYS000058-00-BD01 10/15/2012 10/15/2012 NYS000058 Submitted: December 14, 2011 EXCERPT 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment New York Independent System Operator FINAL REPORT September 2010 OAGI0001129_00001
Executive Summary The 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment (RNA) commences the fifth cycle of the NYISQ's reliability planning processes provided for in its Comprehensive System Planning Process (CSPP). The NYISQ's CSPP encompasses the existing reliability planning processes with the new economic planning process called the Congestion Analysis and Resource Integration Study (CARIS). The RNA provides a long-range reliability assessment of both resource adequacy and transmission security of the New York bulk power system conducted over a lO-year planning horizon. This 2010 RNA builds upon the results and analyses contained in the NYISQ's prior Comprehensive Reliability Plans (CRP) in 2005, 2007, 2008 and 2009 respectively. The first three CRPs responded to the Reliability Needs identified by their respective RNAs. The 2009 RNA, with the reduced forecast associated with energy efficiency peak load reductions, increased generation and increased demand response, identified no Reliability Needs. The fourth CRP indicated that the system was reliable and no solutions were necessary in response to the 2009 RNA The 2010 RNA identified no Reliability Need, assuming that all modeled transmission and generation facilities, including Indian Point, remain in service during the next 10 years from 2011 through 2020. The study of the Base Case indicates that the baseline system meets all applicable Reliability Criteria. However pending regulatory initiatives may affect Base Case facilities and could result in unanticipated retirement of capacity in New York. The NYISQ will continue to monitor these developments and will conduct appropriate reliability studies as necessary.
There are three primary reasons this year's RNA continues to find no Reliability Needs for the next 10 years:
- 1.
Generation additions - Two new proposed generating plants totaling 1060 MW located in Zone J are included in the 2010 RNA Base Case, but were not included in the previous RNAs.
- 2.
Lower Energy Forecast - two factors contributed to this outcome:
The 2009 Recession The effect of the 2009 recession was to reduce the peak demand forecast for 2011 by 1400 MW, before any energy efficiency adjustments. This also reduced the projections of peak load in subsequent years.
Statewide Energy Efficiency Programs (15 x 15)
This refers to the Governor's initiative to lower energy consumption on the electric system by 15%
of the 2007 forecasted levels in 2015. Based on seven factors set forth in the 2010 RNA, the projected impact of these energy efficiency programs has increased from the 2009 RNA The 2009 RNA included cumulative energy savings of 10,235 GWh by 2018. In the 2010 RNA, this value increased to 13,040 GWh by the year 2018 and to 13,684 GWh by the year 2020.
NYISO 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment Executive Summary September 2010 OAGI0001129_00008
Table 2-1: Current Status of Tracked Market-Based Solutions & TOs' Plans in the 2008 CRP Controllable AC Transmission Linden VFT 125 520 MIN Jan 2011 300 H
May-2011 012010 Transmission PI10D,OS,a/S CRP 2007, CRP 2008 300 (No specific capac[y CRP 2007, CRP 2008 and 660 PJM -J Q4 2009 PJ M Queue G22 New Target June 2012 Withdrawn New Target July 2010 Under Construction Placed In-Service November, 2009 Back4:o-Back HVDC, AC Line HTP 206 was an alternative (500 MW PJM -J Q2/2011 New Target 02 2012 regulated proposal In CRP specific PJ M Queue 066 Article VII Pending 2005 Cross Hudson 255 CRP 2008 550 Jun 2010 Cross Hudson II 295 CRP 2008 600 Jun - 2010 TOs'Plans CRP 2005 NlA May - 2011 CRP 2005 310 K
Jan 2009 CRP 2007 240 MVAr H
012009 status as provided by Market Participant as of March 31, 2010
, NRG sumbitted three proposals, one of them was wthdrawn. FOr the purposes of the Market*Based solutions' evaluation NYISO assumed the lowest MW proposal. There is a retirement of 112 MWs at this location reflected in the base case NYISO 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment September 2010 Withdrawn as Solution Replaced with queue #
295 Project No Longer Considered Viable as Solution Placed In-Service August, 2009 Placed In-Service May, 2009 No No Yes Yes No No No Yes Yes Yes OAGI0001129_00015
3.1.
Impact of Energy Efficiency Programs on the Forecast The 2010 Gold Book contains two of the three forecasts used in the 2010 RNA. The first forecast produced is an econometric forecase of annual energy and peak demand that does not include the impacts of the statewide 15x15 energy efficiency programs. The second forecast, which is used for the 2010 RNA Base Case, includes a reduction to the econometric forecast for a portion of the full impact of the statewide 15 x 15 energy efficiency initiative. The second forecast reflects an achievement of 51 % of the statewide goal by the end of the forecast horizon in 2020. The third forecast was prepared for the 45 x 15 scenario and reflects 100% of the 15 x 15 energy goal by 2015.
As part of the EEPS Proceeding, the NYS PSC directed a series of working groups composed of all interested parties to the Proceeding to obtain information needed to further elaborate its goal. The NYS PSC issued an Order on June 23,2008, setting short-term goals for programs to be implemented in the 2008-2011 period to begin the process of satisfying the NYS PSC's goal as applied to the entities over which it has jurisdiction.
The NYS PSC anticipated that LIP A, NYP A and other state agencies would implement their own programs, including energy efficiency, improvements in building codes and new appliance standards.
The NYISO has been a party to the EEPS proceeding from its inception and is a member of the Evaluation Advisory Group, responsible for advising the NYDPS on the methods to be used to track program participation and measure the program costs, benefits, and impacts on electric energy usage. In conjunction with the consensus view of market participants in the Electric System Planning Working Group, the NYISO developed energy forecasts for the potential impact of the EEPS over the 10-year planning period. The following factors were considered in developing the 2010 RNA Base Case forecast:
NYS PSC-approved spending levels for the programs under its jurisdiction, including the Systems Benefit Charge and utility-specific programs Expectation of increased spending levels after 2011 Expected realization rates, participation rates and timing of planned energy efficiency programs Degree to which energy efficiency is already included in the NYISO's econometric energy forecast Impacts of new appliance efficiency standards, and building codes and standards 2 See Appendix C NYISO 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment September 2010 OAGI0001129_00020
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Table 3-1 (a): 2010 RNA Forecast
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t: r~ <;: r~:: 'v r::;} ;:':::;:*C':;:,::*: H:,
IAnnual GWh 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 Econometric Forecast 161,334 163,305 166,616 170,360 172,969 175,286 2010 RNA Base Case Forecast 160,358 160,446 161,618 163,594 164,556 165,372 2010 RNA 15x15 Forecast 159,914 159,402 158,892 158,384 157,877 157,380 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 33,199 33,651 34,192 34,844 35,285 35,696 33,025 33,160 33,367 33,737 33,897 34,021 32,934 32,945 32,805 32,662 32,521 32,377 E{:~:~t~:;;y E':: f$ :::~~:;~: ~.. ~ ;::::v ::~,:,~ r~": t*
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ICumulative GWh 2014 2015 2010 RNA Base Case 976 2,860 4,997 6,765 8,4113 9,914 2010 RNA 15x15 Forecast 1,420 3,903 7,723 11,976 15,092 17,906 12 '~~:~I~¥I:~! Mlij"Y C,'f~::~{;:!::;:ncv :~ r(: p:~::c;ts. ~r~/i ;';:"::: ::;; ::}:f ed ~: i:'f>:::':: 2:{} ":n E',:;c:{~(:;n:: {::?tnc F' C::" {::: '~:~,:::::.:r ~ ~~/~~{/::
2010 2010 RNA Base Case 174 2010 RNA 15x15 Forecast 266 NYISO 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment September 201 0 2011 491 706 2012 2013 2014 2015 825 1,107 1,388 1,675 1,387 2,181 2,764 3,320 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 177,827 1179,844 182,172 184,540 187,015 166,472 1167,517 169,132 171,161 173,332 159,660 1161,469 163,558 165,682 167,902 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 36, 147 36,565 36,983 37,401 37,843 34, 193 34,414 34,672 34,986 35,334 32,794 33,172 33,529 33,866 34,227 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 11,355 12,327 13,040 13,379 13,684 18, 167 18,375 18,615 18,858 19,113 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1,954 2,151 2,311 2,415 2,510 3,353 3,393 3,453 3,535 3,616 12
New Thermal Units Notes:
Table 3-3: Unit Additions 69 Empire Generating (July 2010) (3) 232 Bayonne Energy (June 2011) 308 Astoria Energy II (June 2011) 237 A Chautauqua Landfill (Feb 2010)
(3)
Blenheim-Gilboa Unit 4 uprate (June 185 2010) (3) 216 Nine Mile Point II (June 2012) (3) ec201 635 30 513 550 168 (1)
Riverbay did not go through the NYISO Interconnection study process since it is connected to a non-FERC jurisdictional line. Only the available capacity is shown.
(2)
Stephentown is modeled as a voltage regulation resource.
(3)
Included in 2009 RNA.
(4)
Subsequent to publication of the 2010 Gold Book, NYISO standardized the way in which Class Year (CY) ratings are set. Gold Books will continue to be consistent with CY ratings at time of publication.
NYISO 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment September 2010 17 635 513 550 30 168 OAGI0001129_00028
C-2. Historical Overview C-2.1. NYCA System Table C-3 shows the New York Control Area's (NYC A) historic peak and energy growth since 2000.
Table C-3: Historic Peak and Energy Data with Growth Rates Summer Winter Capability Period Capability Period Annual Percent Summer Percent Winter Percent Year GWh Growth MW Growth Year MW Growth 2000 156,631 28,138 2000-01 23,774 2001 156,801 0.11%
30,982 10.11%
2001-02 23,713
-0.26%
2002 158,752 1.24%
30,664
-1.03%
2002-03 24,454 3.12%
2003 158,012
-0.47%
30,333
-1.08%
2003-04 25,262 3.30%
2004 160,211 1.39%
28,433
-6.26%
2004-05 25,541 1.10%
2005 167,208 4.37%
32,075 12.81%
2005-06 25,060
-1.88%
2006 162,237
-2.97%
33,939 5.81%
2006-07 25,057
-0.01%
2007 167,341 3.15%
32,169
-5.21%
2007-08 25,021
-0.14%
2008 165,613
-1.03%
32,432 0.82%
2008-09 24,673
-1.39%
2009 158,780
-4.13%
30,844
-4.90%
2009-10 24,074
-2.43%
Annual Avg Growth: I 0.15%
I 1.03%
I 0.14%
NYCA is a summer peaking system and its summer peak has grown faster than annual energy and winter peak over this period. Both summer and winter peaks show considerable year-to-year variability due to the influence of extreme weather conditions on the seasonal peaks. Annual energy is influenced by weather conditions over an entire year, which is much less variable.
C-2.2. Regional Energy and Seasonal Peaks Table C-4 shows historic and forecast growth rates of annual energy for the different regions in New York. The Upstate region includes Zones A I. The NYCA's most critical load centers are Zones J (New York City) and K (Long Island) are shown individually.
NYISO 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment September 2010 C-3 OAGI0001129_00089
Table C-4: Actual and Forecast Annual Energy-GWh Upstate New Long Year Region York Island NYCA 2000 87,376 49,183 20,072 156,631 2001 85,851 50,227 20,723 156,801 2002 85,852 51,356 21,544 158,752 2003 85,223 50,829 21,960 158,012 2004 85,935 52,073 22,203 160,211 2005 90,253 54,007 22,948 167,208 2006 86,956 53,096 22,185 162,237 2007 89,843 54,750 22,748 167,341 2008 88,316 54,835 22,461 165,613 83788 53100 21 892 158780 2010 85,334 52,838 22,187 160,358 2011 85,458 52,697 22,290 160,446 2012 86,131 53,026 22,461 161,618 2013 87,614 53,437 22,544 163,594 2014 87,967 53,966 22,623 164,556 2015 88,139 54,466 22,767 165,372 2016 88,412 54,939 23,122 166,472 2017 88,872 55,305 23,340 167,517 2018 89,600 55,886 23,646 169,132 2019 90,501 56,630 24,031 171,161 91 12 57385 535 173332 C-3. Trends Affecting Electricity in New York C-3.1. 2010 Employment Forecast The 2010 economic outlook for employment shows a slow recovery from the 2009 recession. Total employment growth does not become positive until 2011. It reaches a rate of3% by 2013, and then slows to a rate of 0.5% thereafter.
NYISO 2010 Reliability Needs Assessment September 2010 C-4 OAGI0001129_00090