ML11353A051
| ML11353A051 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 12/01/2009 |
| From: | Enercon Services |
| To: | Entergy Nuclear Northeast, Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel |
| SECY RAS | |
| References | |
| RAS 21569, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01 | |
| Download: ML11353A051 (12) | |
Text
SITE SPECIFIC MACCS21NPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1 December 1, 2009 I PEC00208855 IPEC00208855 NYS000211 Submitted: December 16, 2011 EXCERPT
I PEC00208856 SITE SPECIFIC MACCS2 INPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1 Prepared for Entergy Nuclear Northeast White Plains, NY Prepared by Enercon Services, Inc.
6525 N. Meridian Suite 400 Oklahoma City, OK 73116 December 1, 2009 IPEC00208856
Revision 1 December 1, 2009
1.0 INTRODUCTION
The Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMAs) for the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) uses the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2),
for estimating the health and economic consequences of severe accidents. Should a severe reactor accident occur, downwind populations, buildings, and crops would be exposed to radioactive materials. MACCS2 estimates the range and probability of the health effects and the economic costs and losses that would result from such an accident.
Data used in this SAMA were imported and organized usmg ESRI ArcGIS 9.1 Geographic Information System (GIS) (Reference 1.1). ArcGIS 9.1 was used for all geographic processing, overlays, and map production occurred within the ArcGIS 9.1 framework.
MACCS2 requires data in sixteen equiangular sectors centered on IPEC, extending to 50-mile radius. The sector grid is divided into spatial elements by superimposing fifteen circles of increasing diameter over sixteen sectors, for a total of 240 spatial elements. These circles are 0.2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 miles from IPEC. For the purposes of this report, the IPEC center point was determined as the center of the super-heater stack.
Census 2000 Line Data via ESRI (Reference 1.2) for fourteen counties in New York, ten counties in New Jersey, three counties in Connecticut, and one county in Pennsylvania within the IPEC 50-mile buffer were used as base map layers (Figure 1.1, Table 1.1 ).
I PEC00208860 Data input into MACCS2 code include:
- 1.
Population in 2035-at the end of the license renewal period for 240 spatial elements.
- 2.
Land Fraction-proportion of each of the 240 spatial elements that is land, not water.
- 3.
Watershed Index-indication of whether spatial element is drained by rivers or is a lake/water body.
- 4.
Regional Economic Data-estimation of amount of farming and economic activities.
- 5.
Agricultural Data-crop types, growing season, and percent of farmland for each crop.
1-1 IPEC00208860
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 Figure 1.1 US counties within 50-miles ofiPEC.
1-2 IPEC00208861 IPEC00208861
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 Table 1.1 Counties within 50-miles of IPEC.
Sfate'(hlnlv LaiXI Aim (SCJJEIB niles) Pe!cent 'lithin 50-nile zone Connecticut Fairfield 62C 100.C Utdlfield 007 41.E l\\levv Haven fBC 32.S NaN Jersey Berg311 231 100.C Essex 122 100.C f-lldson 44 100.C Mddlesex 3a:
1.E 1\\/bTis 451 80.E Passaic 18E 100.C Sarerset 3(}:1 4.E Sussex 51E 93.S ltlion 102 92.S Wrren 3E£ O.E NeNYorlc Etonx 41 100.C D..d:dless 7rJ2 88.S Kings 67 100.C l\\lassau 26S 97.S l\\levvYcrk 22 100.C Q-cnge 812 100.C R.tnam 226 100.C Q..eens 100 100.0 Ridln:nd Ef 65.LI R~crd 1~
100.C Suffdk 89E 21.3 SUI ivan 007 26.2 Uster 1122 58.1 Wlstdlester 43C 100.C I n.
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lrt::r II ~YIVCB,a Rke 5Llq 18.7 1-3 I PEC00208862 IPEC00208862
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2.0 REGIONAL POPULATION The population within a 50-mile radius of IPEC was estimated for the year 2035, the end of the proposed license renewal period, for each spatial element by combining total permanent (resident) population projections with transient (tourist) population projections.
2.1 Projected Permanent Population County level permanent population projections were obtained from the New York Statistical Information System from 2000 to 2030 (Reference 2.1), the New Jersey Department of Labor and Workforce Development from 2000 to 2025 (Reference 2.2), the Connecticut State Data Center from 2000 to 2020 (Reference 2.3), and the Pennsylvania State Data Center from 2000 to 2020 (Reference 2.4).
Population estimates for Connecticut were provided by municipalities and converted to county to maintain consistency. Linear regression was used to extrapolate population projections (Table 2.1) to 2035, except for New York, Rockland and Westchester counties where polynomial regression was used.
Table 2.1 Population projections (2035 calculated from table).
County 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Connecticut Fairfield 882,567 903,291 857,870 874,730 893,240 918,600 Litchfield 182,193 189,246 192,290 197,730 203,280 217,309 New Haven 824,008 845,694 838,340 852,840 868,690 896,364 New Jersey Bergen 884,118 902,998 949,100 966,500 997,800 1,034,900 1,089,428 Essex 793,633 796,684 816,400 823,700 834,400 849,500 868,715 Hudson 608,975 606,240 635,100 641,000 655,200 668,700 690,981 Middlesex 750,162 785,095 858,600 881,400 922,300 968,900 1,053,511 Morris 470,212 488,173 532,700 547,200 571,800 603,400 653,201 Passaic 489,049 500,427 515,500 518,400 525,200 535,900 553,404 Somerset 297,490 316,750 357,800 371,000 393,900 422,700 470,131 Sussex 144,166 152,218 167,500 173,600 185,400 198,200 217,947 Union 522,541 531,957 545,400 550,600 559,700 573,300 590,616 Warren 102,437 110,018 121,400 125,900 132,700 140,700 156,074 2-1 I PEC00208863 IPEC00208863
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 County 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 New York Bronx 1,332,650 1,365,536 1,425,170 1,469,206 1,511,322 1,550,580 1,586,661 1,634,750 Dutchess 280,150 293,395 293,520 299,468 304,815 309,007 311,809 319,391 Kings 2,465,326 2,475,290 2,531,424 2,554,579 2,571,602 2,580,325 2,580,903 2,618,418 Nassau 1,334,544 1,339,641 1,312,166 1,300,125 1,290,328 1,278,213 1,260,336 1,251,644 New York 1,537,195 1,562,723 1,587,098 1,600,353 1,606,718 1,605,202 1,595,353 1,570,657 Orange 341,367 370,352 370,521 386,015 401,414 415,973 429,580 445,234 Putnam 95,745 100,570 103,786 107,436 110,891 113,917 116,428 120,738 Queens 2,229,379 2,237,216 2,452,109 2,567,898 2,685,206 2,799,559 2,908,709 3,024,717 Richmond 443,728 463,314 505,844 537,493 569,636 600,954 630,683 662,838 Rockland 286,753 293,626 291,706 291,618 290,732 288,593 284,768 278,799 Suffolk 1,419,369 1,475,488 1,456,195 1,466,808 1,474,746 1,476,069 1,468,072 1,490,766 Sullivan 73,966 76,110 79,522 82,524 85,512 88,362 91,092 94,055 Ulster 177,749 181,779 190,389 197,153 203,871 210,096 215,719 222,655 Westchester 923,459 942,444 926,798 925,714 924,149 919,864 911,278 914,934 Pennsylvania Pike 46,302 54,117 60,059 69,447 79,170 103,437 2.2 Projected Transient Population State tourism agencies were contacted to obtain the most recent tourist (transient) information (Table 2.2). Tourist information for 2004 was not available for Pennsylvania therefore 2003 data was incorporated and was assumed to remain constant for 2004. Fine geographical level tourism data (e.g. tourist per year per county) is not collected by states within 50-mile of IPEC. Connecticut and New Jersey only collect this data at a state level. New York breaks state level visitation numbers into five counties within New York City metropolitan area (defined as Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond counties) and the rest ofNew York state and Pennsylvania reports tourist per year at a regional level, (Pocono region which includes Carbon, Monroe, Pike and Wayne counties is the relevant region).
To convert state visitation numbers into county visitation the ratio of estimated 2004 county population (Reference 2.5) to estimated 2004 state population was multiplied by total number visitors in state (Table 2.2.1 ).
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Revision 1 December 1, 2009 Table 2.2.1 State Tourism Offices and Reported Visitor Numbers.
Data Reporting Visitor Reference State - Region Department Year Numbers Numbers Connecticut Connecticut Commission on 2004 19,254,000 2.6 Culture and Tourism New Jersey New Jersey Travel and 2004 71,741,000 2.7 Tourism New York-New NYC & Company 2004 41,000,000 2.8 York MSA New York New York Travel and 2004 96,000,000 2.9 Tourism Pennsylvania-Visit Pennsylvania -
Pocono Region Pennsylvania Tourism 2003 17,726,400 2.10 Department 2-3 I PEC00208865 IPEC00208865
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 Table 2.2.2 2004 Transient/permanent ratio for 28 reporting counties.
2004 Person 2004 Estimated Visits Transient/Permanent County Population (per day)
Ratio (per day)
Connecticut Fairfield 903,291 13,618 0.015 Litchfield 189,246 2,853 0.015 New Haven 845,694 12,750 0.015 New Jersey Bergen 902,998 20,435 0.023 Essex 796,684 18,029 0.023 Hudson 606,240 13,720 0.023 Middlesex 785,095 17,767 0.023 Morris 488,173 11,048 0.023 Passaic 500,427 11,325 0.023 Somerset 316,750 7,168 0.023 Sussex 152,218 3,445 0.023 Union 531,957 12,039 0.023 Warren 110,018 2,490 0.023 New York Bronx 1,365,536 18,927 0.014 Dutchess 293,395 6,904 0.024 Kings 2,475,290 34,309 0.014 Nassau 1,339,641 31,525 0.024 New York 1,562,723 21,661 0.014 Orange 370,352 8,715 0.024 Putnam 100,570 2,367 0.024 Queens 2,237,216 31,010 0.014 Richmond 463,314 6,422 0.014 Rockland 293,626 6,910 0.024 Suffolk 1,475,488 34,722 0.024 Sullivan 76,110 1,791 0.024 Ulster 181,779 4,278 0.024 Westchester 942,444 22,178 0.024 Pennsylvania Pike 54,117 8,112 0.150 2-4 I PEC00208866 IPEC00208866
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2.3 Projected Total Population The projected total population within a 50-mile radius of IPEC was estimated for the year 2035, the end of the proposed license renewal period, by combining the 2035 extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3) with 2035 extrapolated transient population. The 2035 extrapolated transient population was assumed to be the 2004 transient/population ratio multiplied by the extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3).
Table 2.3 Projected total population (2035) by county.
2035 Projected 2035 Projected Permanent Total County Transient/Permanent Ratio Population Population Connecticut Fairfield 0.015 918,600 932,828 Litchfield 0.015 217,309 220,675 New Haven 0.015 896,364 910,248 New Jersey Bergen 0.023 1,089,428 1,114,876 Essex 0.023 868,715 889,007 Hudson 0.023 690,981 707,121 Middlesex 0.023 1,053,511 1,078,120 Morris 0.023 653,201 668,459 Passaic 0.023 553,404 566,330 Somerset 0.023 470,131 481112 Sussex 0.023 217,947 223038 Union 0.023 590,616 604,412 Warren 0.023 156,074 159,719 New York Bronx 0.014 1,634,750 1,657,680 Dutchess 0.024 319,391 327,050 Kings 0.014 2,618,418 2,655,145 Nassau 0.024 1,251,644 1,281,658 New York 0.014 1,570,657 1,592,688 Orange 0.024 445,234 455,910 Putnam 0.024 120,738 123,633 Queens 0.014 3,024,717 3,067,143 Richmond 0.014 662,838 672,135 Rockland 0.024 278,799 285,484 Suffolk 0.024 1,490,766 1,526,514 Sullivan 0.024 94,055 96,310 Ulster 0.024 222,655 227,994 Westchester 0.024 914,934 936,873 Pennsylvania Pike 0.15 103,437 120,669 2-5 IPEC00208867 IPEC00208867
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2.4 Projected Total Population by Spatial Element Areal weighting was used to transfer 2035 projected total population from source areas (county) to target areas (spatial elements) by converting county population to a density measure (e.g. number of people in county/acre) and multiplying this density by the area that county has in a spatial element. For spatial elements that are comprised of elements of more than one county, individual county densities were multiplied by areas of each county in a spatial element and summed. Total projected population of the 50-mile zone of analysis is 19,228,712 and the distribution of 203 5 total population is summarized in Table 2.4 and illustrated in Figure 2.2.
Table 2.4 2035 projected total population summarized by wind direction and buffer distance.
Wind Direction Oto lOmiles 11 to 20 miles 21 to 30 miles 31 to40miles 41 to 50 miles T
N 12,488 22,955 30,654 39,620 51,057 156,774 NNE 14,952 28,140 39,917 56,226 67,213 206,448 NE 23,377 29,419 53,692 62,559 41,261 210,308 ENE 40,386 74,856 119,073 152,175 176,338 562,828 E
41,290 118,335 156,720 200,581 208,394 725,320 ESE 37,861 121,515 144,267 54,180 34,361 392,184 SE 41,873 111,946 87,735 236,426 379,990 857,970 SSE 12,197 98,326 481,703 1,380,249 1,218,170 3,190,645 s
20,621 135,211 1,164,596 3,732,339 3,164,306 8,217,073 ssw 30,318 202,605 395,389 922,649 1,034,467 2,585,428 sw 30,796 183,372 276,902 197,362 246,076 934,508 WSW 27,723 64,428 209,197 109,102 85,849 496,299 w
16,925 32,026 50,974 61,380 57,384 218,689 WNW 14,036 32,528 54,577 57,977 29,719 188,837 NW 13,421 32,572 54,557 24,046 22,317 146,913 NNW 12,286 31,660 32,569 27,599 34,374 138,488 Totals 390,550 1,319,894 3,352,522 7,314,470 6,851,276 19,228,712 2-6 I PEC00208868 IPEC00208868
Revision 1 Figure 2.1 I PEC00208869 December 1, 2009 2035 projected total population by spatial element (dark red indicates highest population).
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