ML092870685
Text
Indian Point Nuclear Generatina Units 2 and 3 Docket Nos. 50-247/ 50-286-LR NRC Staff's Response in Opposition to State of New York's Motion for Partial Summary Disposition of NYS Contention 16116A Exhibit R
l O t l l < V A l Of-AI'I'I I t - 1 ) b l k I I - O R 0 1 O < i Y AERMOD: A Dispersion Model for Industrial Soi~rce Applications.
Part 11: Model Performance against 17 Field Study Databases (Milnuscript rcccivctl 21 Jnnuory 20IW. i n f11\\;11 ~ L I ~ I T ~
?h C)~foh~:l.
2004)
AAS I'HA('1
'l'he perl'orrni~nce ol' the Americiiti Melec,rolo!:ic;rl So~.iet! ( AMS) ;ind 1J.S. knvi~.onmenli~l I'rolec~ion Acency (F,i'A) I<rqul;llory Model (AEl<MOl)) Improvenien~ ('ommilree's ilpplied 1111 d~>persior~
model
- ~p;~insl 17 field study d;ili~hnaes is deaci,ibrd. AF.RMOI) i> ;I slei~dv-slate plume model ~ l t h hi!!nllic'~nl improbemen~s over commonly applied ~ C ~ L I I I I I O ~ ~
~iiodels. [ ' h e d:rliib;l<e* are chi~~-i~cler.i~cd.
i~nd Ihe per-lorm;ince rlieilsul.es i~re de>cr~hecl. En1ph;rsis is pli~cecl on al:iLislics lhill demonslr;~le Ilir model's i~h~l~ties to I-eproduce [lie upper end ol tlie ~,oncent~.itlion disr~.il>~~lion.
'l'liis i b mosl impol.lirnl I'or ;lpplied rekl,~ll;~lory ni{~delln><.
I'lie field Iiie:isuremelil\\ ii1.e cli;~ri~cleri~ed I>!
lli~t irncT complex lerri~in, u~~h;r~i
- IIILI 1ur;11 condl-tions. ilntl cli.v;~tctl nncl sur.f;lcc ~elcnscs with nntl witlic,ut b~~ilcli~l~
wakc ~:ffcctb. As is ind~cntcd b!.
cotii-piirisons r)f nlcldclctl ant1 ohscl.vcd coliccntralio~i tlistributionb. wttll few cxcr:ptio~is ACRMC)L)'s pcrfo~-
miuicc is supcrir~r to that clt'rtic olllcr ilpl~lied ~iic)dcIs ICSICCI.
T h i is the second of two n~.ticlcs.
w i t h 111' first clcscribirig ~ h c r11c)dcl t'orrr~ula~io~is.
In lO9I, tl~r I!.S. E~rvisnnrr~e~~tirl I'~.ntcctio~l Agrrlcy (FI'A) irl corljuncriorl with tlie A~rlerica~l Meteo1.o-lop,ical Society (AiVlS) fornled the A M S and F.I'A I<egulatosy Moclel (AF,I<MOl)) Irrlp~~overl~ent
(:orl~-
~nitter: ( A t l < M I C ) with the expressed purpose of in-co~.po~.ut ing the current understanclir~g of the planetary I ~ o u ~ ~ d a ~. y layo1 (PHI,) illto a state-of-the-art appliecl tlispcrsion model. A E R M O D.
AEKh.ll(:"s work clcasly has bcnefitcd from the
~ r ~ o d c l dcvclopmcnl activilics worldwide c.)vcr tlic past few ilccailes, especially in tlic par;imcleriznlic,n of mean wincls iind P B L Lurbulcnct\\. dispersion in [lie CBL. (lie t r c a t m c ~ i t of plunicltcl-rain intcriictions, p l ~ ~ n i c -
building intcrnctic.)~~~.
and urban dispcl.sion.
A E R M O D (C'irnc.)relli ct iil. 2003) is a stciliiy-st;~tc plume nioclcl aimed a1 sliorl-ri~ngc [up t o 50 km) clis-pcrsion from stalionary induslrii~l-typc sou~~ccs-llic salrle s c e ~ ~ a r i o s tllat are cur~,el~tly I~ar~dled hy tile EI'A'4 Industrial S o u r c e C'omplcx SIio1.t-Term nioiicl (IS('S'1'3) (I.i.S. F,~lvi~.on~nerltaI I't,otectior~ Ap,el~c!,
1 OM). 'l'lle rrletGorological ccinclitions are assurrled to he stei~tlv duritip the ~noileli~lg periocl (typically 1 ti) arlcl I101.i7011tally horrlo~erieous. Vt..~.tical va~,iatiorls i r ~ the I'f31..
however. art: incorporirted illto the t l ~ o d ~ l ' s pre-diclions. For I'l(.)w in complcx tcl.sain A E R M O D incor-
~ O I I ~ ~ S the concept of ;I iiivicli~ig s t ~ e i ~ ~ ~ l l i ~ l e (Snyder ct al. 1985). The modcl consiclcrs thc inl'lue~~ce of btrilcling
\\\\1;1kcs on plulnc rise il~ld clispc~.sio~i t~sin? the algo-l-illims c.)f tlic Plume R i w hlodcl EnIi;lnccrncn~s (PRIME) 111~)dcl (Schulman el al. 2000). In i~rban arcas.
A E R M O D accounts fol-the ilispc~.sivc II~I~III.C 01 the "convective like" t)ou~ldary layer tllcit fo~,rlls clu~,ing nipllttinre corlditions t>y enhancing the tul,trule~lce ro-suiting from urban heat flux ( O k e 1078. 1982).
This paper is the second of two clescritrir~p the newlv clevelol>ed AEI<MOI) rrlodelinp system. (:ir~~o~.cIli et al.
(2005. hcreirlafte~~
['art I) ciescl.it>e the rnodrl fol.nlula-
MAY ?(Mi I'EKKY E I' Al..
605 TABLE 1. Description of ficlil stuilics (without builcling wnkc cffccrs).
D;~tnlr;lsc Dcscsiptio~r o f fi~>ltl study I
I S
\\'el-\\, flat. rural iNehr;~sk'l): nonh~lo!li~n~
hingle-polnl \\ource: 0.4h-m rrleilsr. 44 di~~il hours. SO, \\;rrnpIer\\ In i~rcs (SO?)
o u l to XtX) m: Ih-rn ~iic~corologici~l lo\\\\'el- (wind, lu~-l>~~lr~?cc.
nlid tempcrilt~~re dil~il): Hilr;~~l (105s) ;rncl Hilupen (1')SO).
k;lnc;riJ (SF,,)
I:lrll. r ~ l r i l l ( I l l ~ ~ i o i \\ ).
hi;l,lil\\ h u o ~ ; ~ n ~
hinple stmrce: I ; I I I \\!ilck rele;lhr (IS7 m):,375 cliltil hour\\: St, h;lmpler\\ in ; ~ r c h OLII 10 50 klii. 100-111 totver (\\\\ri~i~l.
l ~ ~ r b ~ ~ l e ~ i c e ~
- I I ~ L ~ te~iipcral~~re);
1,1u a~icl bloore (lOX4) ;11ic1 Bo\\\\:lie P I ill, (lOS3).
I I
~
~
I I
~
I I
I Flat. url>,lri (Ilidinnn). hi~11Iy huoy;r~lr rclcnsc (84 nr): 170 clatn hou1.s: SF,,.jamplclh 111 arch out to I ? km: l.Jlhan
[SF<,)
tower (U4 m): 10-ni suhurhan i~nrl ruri11 Ii~wc~s (wind. tllrblllcncc, and tcrnllc~.'iture):
Murray and lli>a.nc (IOSX).
Klnc;llil (SO,) Flat. rurill (Illinnis). liiylily huo);.illt a i l i ~ l c \\nu!-cc; t;~ll >tack ri:le,iac (1x7 ni): 4614 cl;lt;i hours: 30 a.lrnp1cl.s out to 20 km: l(K)-m tvwcr (wincl. turhulslicc. and tcliipcrnturc); Liu nntl %loorc (19x4) a ~ i d Downc cr al. (1983).
Lovctt (SO?)
IIilly. rur<iI (Ncrv York), higlily buoyant rclcnsc (145 111): 12 ~iionitors out 3 krn: I yr of ~lat:~;
l(X)-~ii (\\vlncl.
ru~.hulcticc. :inti tcmpcrature); Pnuniicr ct al. (10iJ2).
Baldwin ( S O, ) Fl;lt. rurirl (Illinois): thrcc highly I>unyalit st,icks (1x4 m): 10 fixed scinipl~,rs out to 10 kni: I yr of J,II,I: 100-rn (wind and tcmpcrnturc darn): Ilnlinii ci~irl C'liang (1093).
C'lifty C'rcck Morlcrntcly hilly, rural (Inrlinnn): t1il.e~ highly tiuoy:lnr stack\\ (cnc.11 208 m): sin fixcd silml~li:~.s 1,111 lo I5 kln:
(SO,)
1 y1 of data: 60-m tower on rienrby latenu nu. 11.5 m ahvw stack base (wind ancl trmper;lturc clnta).
1 1 i 1 i r
e Hilly. r11r:lI (l'e~i~is!~l\\~il~iii~):
rnul~iple hi$:hly tiuoy;~nl rrlr:rses ( 1 27-1x3 ni): I yr 01' d;lr;l: seven l'ixed \\;~rnplers out (SO,)
to X k111: 10-rn \\o\\rrr plus su11;rr (wind. (urhulence. and lemperi\\ture d;ll:l).
ll1esr\\itc(>
Hilly. i, ~ ~ r : r l (hf;~r!I;~nd):
hiphlv huoy:~nt srirck (IS3 m):
I I I~.;t.cl \\i~mplels oul l o 3 km: I y r oI'd;rli~. I \\ \\ < >.'*(I-m (SO,)
lo\\\\'ers: IOO-m toner (\\vlntl. lurbulence. on11 te~nper,~ture d:~r:l): Sl~rrn;r~tis eL :I]. (11)S7).
~
y S t,
Alounr;l~no~~s.
rural (Nev,tJ;~):
~ ~ i ~ d e l - i ~ ~ e l !.
huovil~il s~ilck (01 nl): 12s I1 01' cI;11;1. SFo \\i~~iil~lc~.\\
OLII 10 fl hni.
150-111 ko\\+er (\\\\,i~icl, ~urbuletice :~ticl te~iiprr;l~~~~-e
~I~IL'IJ:
1e~Iie1.\\01itle ternpel;r~u~es:
i ~ c < ~ i ~ > ~ i c
\\o~~~icIc~r.
lIi('rlh1t)l:1ro
'11 (1985).
tion. while this pirpcr provides an overview of the 1110~1-el's performance i~gainsl the conccnlration cibscrva-tions irt 17 field studv dutilbascs. The studies include sites with flat ant! co~nplcx terrain. urban and ruriil con-ditions. and clcvi~tcd rind S U I ~ ~ I C C rclc;~scs with iind without buildi~ip wake effects. The evaluation mcijsllrcs are focused on those tliat are relevant to regu1atol.y applications, tliat is, ernl>Iiasis on ability of the model to simulate the upper er~cl of the concentration ciistrihu-tinrls. AE~UVLOII estirnotes have I>eeu co~nparzd witli thost. of otlie~. applied models. irlclucling 1skS.1'3 (I.!.S.
E~lvi~.orlrnzntal Protectio~i Apzricy 1095). the HyI31.icl I'lu~ne IIispersiorl Modzl (HPIIM) (Harlrla ancl Paint.
1989). the liough 'I'errain IIiffusioll Model (Ii'l'lIM)
(Painc and Egan 1987). and Ihc C'o~nplex Terriiin Dis-persion Modcl Plus Algc)~.ithms Cor Unstable Situations (C:TDMPLUS) (Perry 1992).
- 2. Model evaluation field studies O f the 17 datat>ases that were conside~.zd, 10 were dcsignecl tu cc.)llcct dala lor overall ~nodcl pcrCormunce whcrc building wakes were not ;in issue. while the re-maining 7 were specifically focused on buil~ling inrllr-cnccs. Tllc stuiiics arc surn~iiiirizcd ill Tirblcs I and 2.
h.lill>> of the various sites can he lound in Painc el al.
(1998. 2003). The fi~.sl five ~i;rlirhascs listed in Tahlc I
\\vcrc useil during Ilic AGRMOD dcvclopment proccss to iderltify major p~,ot>lerrls witli the inodel algo~.lthrlls hut gelierally were rlot usccl to set enlpirical parallirters to inll>~'ovc the ~riodel ~.rsults. An exception is fourld with the use of tlie I'rairie Gt'ass Experi~nerit data to specifically develop the fasnlulatior~ for the luleral dis-pel.sic>n para~rleter. 'I'lle ~.e~rlainillg fivz clatahases were itidcl~unclcntly i~pplicd to the developed motlcl code.
The first fciur building \\virkc datab;lses in Tilblc 7-wcrc each subtlivicicd to provide data for both ~nodcl iievel-opncnt and cvi~lui~tio~i of the F'RIME builcling tiown-was11 wlgorithms. lIo\\vever. ill1 of the datir frunl the seven building wake diitabascs were uscit in the pcrfo~.-
Illance ~.esults described in this papel..
- 3. Performance nieaswres Altli(>~tgh the 111odc1 ~vill~ilIi011 e~illlliricd the 411i1lity of tlic predictions relative tu thc model physics. t11c rcsi~lts reported here arc focused pri~narily on answer-ing the questions: how well cloes AEliMOlI ~)re~lict tlre higl.1-end, g~,ound-level co~lcentrations that are pencr-ally usecl to assess compliance with air c l u i l l i t v regula-tions: arid is AEIIMOlI's perfnr~na~lce distirljiuisllnhly I~etter than that of r,tl~e~.
opl~lied rlloclels for this l>ur-pose? '1'0 answer Ilit.se quzstions tlie a~lalyses of the
~noclel's ~)el.fo~,tlla~lce
~1tili7e~l ill1 of tllc ~.elevarlt ilrl>ut data tliat are ~ivailable with eacll dutaset. 'l'lie l~erfor-mirnccs o f ci~rlicr versions oC AERMOD wcl-c csilln-incrl with reductions in thc numhcr of height Icvcls i n tlic mcasurcii profiles of F'RL vilriilblcs (c.9.. \\kind. tern-
~xri11111'c).
fl;lillc (200.3) I'o1111tI 1Ilill tllc pcrf(.)r~n;i~ice of tlic ~n~)tlel icnded lo ciqraiic ;IS Inorc and ~morc levels of iii~ta wcrt: rcmovcd from Ihc irnalysis. In general. tlic lnoiicl prcciictions ttlndcll to\\vard hi~lict~conccntraticins a ~ ~ c l.
thus, ~)~.ovidecl 1riol.e corlserviltive results when conllx~rzd to the obse~.ved coticerlt~.atio~ls.
111 the abserlce of ~noclel fot.~nulatitrn ~ I. I, O I. S ;tr~d sto-chastic var,iations, the lnajor ~ ~ a s o n s for deviations be-tweell lnotlel estilnates ancl oI>servations al,e e1.l.ol.s i l l tlie ~noclzl inputs, arrd the co~~cent~.atio~l ol)se~.votior~s
T h i s servccl t o highlight t h c s c n s i l i ~ i ~ y of clispcrsion l o loci11 nictcorologicul bclii~vior a n d t h c g e o m e t r y of t h c b i ~ i l d i n g w i ~ k c s a n d cilvitics. C)verall. t h e model f o u n d t h e rcpl.esenlative high-end c o n c c n t r i ~ t i o n s (i.e.. RIIC:)
within ii factor o f 2 or better. A l t h o u g h it s e e m s r a t h e r obvicl~is, t h e results h c r c strongly suggest tlial spccifi-cation of tlic cavity c s t c n t a n d p l u m e maIcri;il licighl a n d spl'end ( n e a r t h e b u i l d i ~ i g ) is critical to appropri-ately s i ~ n u l a t i n p t h e d o w ~ i w n s h effect.
AF.I\\MOl) (l'arl I) ~.ep~.rl.sents many f o l m u l a t i o ~ i in)-
~ w o v e l n e n t s o v e ~
c o n ~ r r l o ~ l l y a p p l i e d repula1o1.y nlodels s u c h as ISC7S'1'3. 111 model-to-~nociel c o n i p a r i s o n s.
AE1IMC)ll's p e ~. f o ~, m a r ~ c e is clea~,ly s u p e ~. i o ~.
t o t hut o f ISC'S'1'3. Models s u c h a s HI'IIM i111ll C'I'I)Ml'I,IIS p e r -
fol.rn sirnila1.1y to AEKMOI) in t h e selectetl circunl-s t a n c e s f o r which thcse m o d e l s w e r e designed. T h i s is n o t surprising b r c a ~ ~ s e m a n y of I h c f o r m u l a l i o n s o f AERMOD itre based. to somc e x t e n t, o n eijrlicr w o r k b y o t h e r s in d e v e l o p i n g t h e s e a n d o t h e r motlcls.
/ I c ~ k r l o ~ ~ ~ I ~ d, y ~ l o r l ~. ~.
We t h i ~ l ~ k t h e Inany scientists w h o
~ w o v i d c d c v n l u ; ~ l i o n cl;~tebases and c o n d u c t e d peer rc-views ; ~ n d b e t a test ir~g t l ~ r o ~ ~ g h o u t t h e l)e~,iod o f t h e AEIIMOI) c l e v e l o l ~ ~ n z n t.
'l'his p a p e r h a s bee11 1.e-viewed in ~ I C C O I. ~ Z I ~ C C wit11 t h e I1.S. Envisonrlle~ltal P r o -
t e c t i o ~ l Apency's peel r e v i e w a n d a d ~ n i n i s t r a t i v e review pr)licies f o ~
a p p ~. o v t ~ l f o r preserltatiorl a r ~ d publication.
h ~ l e n t i o n of t~,acle n a m e s o r conlnle~,cial prc>ducts d o e s n o t c o n s t i t u t e e n d o r s e ~ n e n t o r ~ ~ e c o r n n ~ e n c l a t i o n for.
Bilerentsen. J. 11.. ;~ncl R. Bcrkuwicz. l'J8-1: V l o ~ ~ t c C':~rln simuln-tiori of plun~c dispcrsiori in the cc~nvectivc boundary I ; - I ~ ~ L A~IIIIJT, f31riri111
, 18, 701 71 2.
H;II-;rd. M. I... IOiX: I'rojrct I'r'ti~.ie ( i r. : ~ ~.
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I'l;rnnin!!
- ~ n d St'~nd<rrd\\ Rep. EPA-45014-Sl-(U)2. 52 pp.
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(;rr~/)/~i(,~i/
.\\tct//r~~i/.\\
,/i~r Llrirrr A~IcI!\\'>Is (L~c// Lii00r111or1('>). Wadswo~th I~lte~.nntii~n~ll C i r o ~ ~ p
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- I I I ~
(-oi~utho~\\.
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lalion ;inel I ? ~ L I I I ~ ~ ; I ~ \\
layer c~lii11t1e1cr1/:1tion,
.I.,\\/I/)/.,i,!(,~i,or,
- 44. hS?-hU?
('ox, \\V.. ;IIILI.I..l'ik\\,:~rt~
1000: A st:ltis1ic:11 procedure 101-deter-
~ l ~ i r ~ i r ~ p the hi:$[ ~>crfo~'~llinn air L I I I ; I I I I ~ \\ I I I ~ L I ~ ~ I I I (. I I ~
111odc!1 AI-I/IIJ\\. L.'JIVII.~III.,
24A. 3.X7 23'Ji.
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~IIO,\\.
E I I I ' I ~ ~ J I ~..
27A1 1401-IS08
. U. (2. Ep"ri. J Pur-durn. <111d J. \\4';1pl~,r.
IOVLJ: llvr~luilt~or~
of IS<':l, AERMC)D. < ~ r l < l !\\L)MS tIi\\pcrs~(,n ~~iodul*
with oh\\i.~-
v;rtions T~.orn f ~ v e field \\ ~ ~ e s.
H:~nn;c ( ' o n ~ ~ l t i ~ n t s Ilcp.
1'O~t)I)ll. I0 pp.
. nrld
. YkIO: ('ornpilrihon of AERUOC).
ISC'.1. nntl ADMS moclcl lpcrfol.n~:~ncc \\+ith five, t'icld tlata scts. Prcpl.i~~ts.
A\\b'.blA, ~ I I I I I I ~ J /
,l.lc'c,ro~~.
S;ilt Lclkc (-'~ty.
I IT.
Air arid Waste M;r~~ngcrncnt Assoc~at~nr~.
I 14.
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\\'ol. [II. <;eophysicirl Rese;~rc.h I'ilper 9 1. Air Force
<';~~nht.iJ~!e Kesei~rcli ('enter Rep. AF('l<('- I'Il-$X-21S. 430 PI'.
Irwin. J. S.. I). (hrr~~lhers.
.I. Stocker. and 1. I';~l~rnir~,
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.I. E~rviroi~.
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