ML053260471
| ML053260471 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Palisades  |
| Issue date: | 09/19/2005 |
| From: | Nuclear Management Co |
| To: | Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| References | |
| Download: ML053260471 (75) | |
Text
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 1 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES
1.0 INTRODUCTION
This report summarizes updates to Evacuation Time Estimates (ETEs) for the Palisades Nuclear Power Plant (PNPP). The purpose of the ETEs is to analyze how the population within the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) around the nuclear power plant would evacuate during a radiological emergency.
Estimates of the time required to evacuate from areas around nuclear power plant sites are required for all operating plants in the United States. The Federal government has prepared guidance for the preparation and format of these evacuation time estimates. Most notable are the guidance documents prepared by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NUREG-0654, Rev.11 and NUREG/CR 48312).
1.2 Emergency Planning Zone Description The Palisades Nuclear Power Plant is located in Van Buren County, Michigan approximately five miles south of the city of South Haven, Michigan. The Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) encompasses an approximate ten-mile radius around the PNPP including the town of South Haven and portions of Van Buren, Allegan and Berrien Counties.
1.3 Sources of Data The following data sources were reviewed in order to develop the appropriate input required for the computer simulation model used for the evacuation analysis:
- 1.
Nuclear Management Corporation (NMC) provided a copy of the previous evacuation time estimate study and maps of the EPZ.
Additional information including listings of major employers, schools, daycares, nursing and group homes, and recreation areas was providing by emergency planning official from Van Buren, Allegan, and Berrien Counties and from representatives of the Emergency Management Division of the Michigan State Police.
- 2.
U.S. Census (2000) data was used to estimate the permanent population residing in the EPZ and to estimate the average household size (persons/household). This data was obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau website and from the Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), 380 New York Street, Redlands, California.
- 3.
Estimates of workforce populations were based on information from the previous evacuation time estimate study and telephone conversations with specific employers.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 2 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES
- 4.
Listings of transient facilities (parks, hotels, motels, recreational) were provided by emergency planning officials from Van Buren, Allegan, and Berrien Counties. Additional information was obtained from telephone phone books and Internet searches.
- 5.
Descriptions of the roadway network were obtained from the previous evacuation time estimate study and the Van Buren, Allegan, and Berrien County Highway Departments. The roadway network was surveyed and the characteristics such as number of lanes, pavement width, shoulder type and width, posted speed limits, interchange and intersection geometries were noted and used for preparing the input streams for the transportation model.
1.4 General Assumptions
- 1.
An actual evacuation would be conducted in accordance with current State and County radiological emergency response plans.
- 2.
The evacuation time estimates represent an estimate of the time required to evacuate the population from the affected subareas included in the evacuation cases and include estimates of preparation and mobilization time.
- 3.
The evacuation time estimates were developed assuming that all special facilities (eg, schools, group homes) will be informed to evacuate at the same time as the general population.
- 4.
The simultaneous evacuation of the Palisades AND DC Cook EPZs was not considered in this study.
- 5.
It is assumed that all persons within the EPZ would evacuate the affected subareas.
- 6.
It was assumed that the public would travel on evacuation routes designated by State and County law enforcement and emergency preparedness officials.
- 7.
It was assumed that the permanent population would evacuate from their residences.
- 8.
It was assumed that persons would evacuate as a family unit.
- 9.
It was assumed that 100% of the school population would be evacuated directly to the appropriate reception centers and that no parental pickup would occur.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 3 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES
- 10.
It was assumed that school staff would evacuate with the students and not via their own vehicles.
- 11.
Transport-dependent, including special needs individuals, would be evacuated by bus or ambulance as coordinated by State and County, and municipal emergency preparedness officials.
- 12.
It was assumed that existing lane utilization and traffic control devices would be used during the evacuation.
- 13.
It was assumed that State and County, and municipal preparedness officials would restrict access into the EPZ or affected areas during the evacuation.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 4 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES 2.0 POPULATION ESTIMATION The development of evacuation times necessarily involves estimation of vehicle demand. For this study, vehicle demand estimation was done in two stages. First, the number and distribution of the human population was made. Second, the number and types of vehicles that would be used during an evacuation were estimated. Regulatory guidance suggests that three population segments should be considered: permanent residents, transients, and special facility residents1.
Permanent residents were defined as those individuals residing at a primary residence that is within the EPZ. Persons considered transients included tourists and employees not residing in the EPZ. The special facility population included those residents confined to hospitals and nursing and group homes. School populations (students and staff) were considered part of the special facility population.
2.1 Permanent Population The permanent population was estimated by superimposing the PNPP EPZ map on U.S. Census Bureau census block maps. Using EPZ maps those census blocks that best matched the actual EPZ were selected. The five subareas within the EPZ were also defined based on the best match to the census block map. In most instances the actual EPZ edges and the subarea boundaries were consistent with census block boundaries; census boundaries usually follow man-made and natural geographic divisions such as major roadways, rivers, and political boundaries such as County lines.
The location of the PNPP was taken as x=12596562, y=305912.
Once the EPZ and subarea boundaries were developed, the census tract and block attributes were linked to Table P39 in Census Summary File 1 (SF1), which was obtained from the US Census Bureau website. The linked tables were then compiled for each subarea and the permanent populations were tabulated. This data is summarized in Table 2.1. The detailed permanent population for each subarea and county data is given in Appendix A.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Revision 12 Page 5 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 2.1 Permanent populations for subareas in the Palisades EPZ.
Permanent Population Subarea This study Previous Study
% Change 1
2,001 2
1,939 3
2,360 4 (Van Buren) 10,283 4 (Allegan) 1,433 5 (Van Buren) 4,308 5 (Berrien) 10,703 Van Buren County 20,891 19,212 8.7%
Allegan County 1,433 1,142 25.5%
Berrien County 10,703 11,180
-4.3%
TOTAL EPZ Perm.
33,027 31,534 4.7%
Pop.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 6 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES 2.2 Transient Population The transient population includes those persons that work at locations within the EPZ. Several components of the transient population are discussed below.
Employees A listing of major employers and employee estimates is given in Table 2.2.
Employee population information provided by the Chamber of Commerce survey was updated through telephone conversations. Employers were also asked to estimate the number of workers for each shift and for weekends.
Transient Population in Hotels and Motels Hotels, motels, and bed and breakfasts that could be identified within the EPZ are given in Table 2.3. Local telephone books were used to develop a listing of these facilities and facility information (eg, number of rooms) was gathered during telephone conversations.
Transients at Parks A listing of the parks and recreation areas was taken from the previous ETE and was updated using information provided by emergency planning officials from Berrien and Van Buren Counties and is presented in Table 2.4. It was also assumed that all persons at these facilities would be from outside the EPZ.
Transients at Marinas Marinas in the EPZ are listed in Table 2.5. This listing was taken from the previous ETE and updated with information provided by officials from Van Buren County.
Transients at Shopping Centers No major shopping centers were found in the PNPP EPZ.
2.3 SPECIAL FACILITY POPULATIONS This section describes how different components of the special facility population were estimated. In this study, special facility populations included those individuals that have special needs and might require assistance during an evacuation, school and preschool children, and residents of facilities such as hospitals, and nursing homes.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Revision 12 Page 7 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 2.2 Major employers within the EPZ and estimations of employees.
Workforce Population Day Night Weekend Subarea City Facility 1
Covert Palisades Nuclear Power Plant 395 315 315 Subarea I Subtotals 395 315 315 2
South Haven Adkin's Blue Ribbon Packaging 60 0
0 South Haven Alpha Engineering 3
0 0
South Haven Baars Printing Company 6
0 0
South Haven Bohn Engine and Foundry 200 150 5
South Haven Taylor Controls, Inc 12 0
0 Subarea 2 Subtotals 281 150 5
4 South Haven American Twisting Co 25 20 0
South Haven Anderson Box 4
0 0
South Haven B & K Machine 15 5
0 South Haven BEI Incorporated 24 0
0 South Haven Consumers Concrete Co 8
0 0
South Haven Controlled Rubber Products 60 60 0
South Haven Daggett's Concrete Products 10 0
3 South Haven Precision Machine 14 0
0 South Haven Scott Aviation Plant 4 45 45 0
South Haven SE Overton Co 50 0
0 South Haven Sherman Dairy Products, Inc 50 0
0 South Haven South Haven Coil 50 0
0 South Haven South Haven Community Hospital 152 100 100 South Haven South Haven Rubber Co 40 30 0
South Haven System Components, Inc 35 0
0 South Haven Triangle Trades, Inc 20 0
0 South Haven Wyckoff Chemical Company, Inc 60 0
0 Subarea 4 Subtotals 662 260 103 5
Watervliet Custom Built Brush Co 12 0
0 Coloma Hipskind Building Supply 10 0
0 Coloma InnoCorp 25 0
0 Watervilet Jarvis Concrete Products 3
0 0
Coloma Menasa Corporation 70 40 0
Coloma Modern Light Metals 14 0
0 Coloma Russell Vending Company 7
0 0
Watervliet Shoreline Industries 15 8
0 Coloma Spartan Industries 8
0 0
Watervliet Watervilet Fruit Exchange 7
0 0
Watervliet Watervilet Paper Company 285 0
0 Watervliet Watervilet Hospital 110 90 90 Coloma West Gate Oil 8
3 0
Subarea 5 Subtotals 574 141 90 EPZ Totals 1,912 866 513
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Revision 12 Page 8 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 2.3 Hotels, motels, bed and breakfasts within the EPZ.
Populations Subarea City Facility Day Night Weekend 4
South Haven A & R's North Beach Inn and Cottages 40 40 40 4
South Haven A Country Place Bed and Breakfast 29 29 29 4
South Haven Arundel House 25 25 25 4
South Haven Compton's Cove 32 32 32 4
South Haven Elmhurst Farm Inn 10 10 10 4
South Haven North Beach Inn and Restaurant 16 16 16 4
South Haven Old Harbor Inn 65 65 65 4
South Haven The Colonial 70 70 70 4
South Haven The Last Resort Bed and Breakfast Inn 34 34 34 4
South Haven The New Victoria Inn 54 54 54 Subarea 4 Subtotals 375 375 375 5
Coloma Cez Du Lac Motel 9
9 9
5 Coloma Motto's Resort 42 42 42 Subarea 5 Subtotals 51 51 51 EPZ Totals 426 426 426
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT Al SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Ri POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES PPENDIX C Levision 12 age 9 of 32 Table 2.4 Population and vehicle demand estimates for parks, trails, and recreation areas within the EPZ.
Subarea Site Population Vehicles 1
Covert Township Park 400 80 Van Buren State Park 6,500 1,760 Subarea 1 Subtotals 6,900 1,840 3
Dune Lake Campground 100 55 Subarea 3 Subtotals 100 55 4
Black River 600 125 Cousin's Campground 120 30 Jensen's Trailer Park 1,000 80 North Beach 1,500 500 Singing Sands RV Park 90 90 South Beach 1,500 500 Subarea 4 Subtotals 4,810 1,325 5
Benton Harbor/St Joseph KOA 390 130 Forest Beach 50 15 Paw Paw Lake 280 15 Paw Paw River Trading Post 115 30 Rush Lake Campgrounds 24 24 Sunset Park 50 15 Subarea 5 Subtotals 909 229 EPZ Totals 12,719 3,449
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Revision 12 Page 10 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 2.5 Transient population estimates for marinas within the Palisades EPZ.
- Subarea 4
Site No of Slips Est Population 46 92 All Seasons Marine, Inc Bard's Marina Black River Marina Boat Yard Basin Burr Docks J&B Landing Launch Jensen's Marina Municipal Marina Nichols Landing Condo Assoc Oak Harbor Marina River Noire Marina River Ridge Marina Slips Away South Haven City South Haven Yacht Club Summer Place Mooring Three Mile Lake Woodland Harbor Marina Subarea 4 Subtotals 45 70 74 85 90 140 148 170 5
Paw Paw Lake Sports and Marina 45 90 Subarea 5 Subtotals 45 90 EPZ Totals
PFALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 11 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Hospitals The hospitals and medical facilities in the EPZ are given in Table 2.6.
Nursing Homes A list of nursing homes, group homes, and community-based care centers is given Table 2.7. This listing was taken from the previous ETE and reviewed by officials from Allegan, Van Buren, and Berrien Counties.
Schools A listing of schools and preschools provided by emergency planning officials from Allegan, Van Buren, and Berrien Counties. Each facility was contacted via telephone and the estimates of enrollment and staff were tabulated.
This data is given in Table 2.8.
2.4 Special Events Populations Several festival events are held in the South Haven vicinity on an annual basis. The Harbor Fest and All Crafts Fair attract about 20,000 people and are held on the first weekend in September. The South Haven Blueberry Festival is held on the last full weekend of July and attracts about 14,000 people to the area. Finally, the Fourth of July parade and fireworks draw approximately 25,000 to the South Haven beach area.
These events are not concurrent so it is not necessary to plan for an event with more that the event with the greatest attendance. For these EPZ, the greatest special event attendance is the Fourth of July activity.
2.5 Adjustments To Populations Some adjustments to the population estimates were made when it was plausible that a given population could fluctuate and affect evacuation time estimates.
For example, a population change might occur as a result of workforce populations moving in and out of the EPZ. Whatever the reason, it is impossible for a person to be in more than one place at a given time and approximated adjustments to populations may be deemed appropriate.
Following are discussions on how the various populations presented in Sections 2.1 through 2.4, were adjusted.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Revision 12 Page 12 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 2.6 Population estimates for hospitals.
Patients Ambulatory Req. W.C.
Staff*
Subarea
- Facility, Req. Amb.
4 South Haven Community Hospital 44 26 12 252 Subarea 4 Subtotals 44 26 12 252 5
Watervliet Hospital 48 12 10 200 Subarea 5 Subtotals 48 12 10 200 EPZ Totals 92 38 60 452
- List as employees in Table 2.2.
Table 2.7 Population estimates for nursing homes and community-based residential facilities.
Subarea Facility Residents Staff Ambulatory Req. W.C.
Req. Amb.
3 Hebrews Adult Foster Care Home 3
1 Subarea 3 Subtotals 3
1 4
Country Side Nursing Home 7
102 98 4
South Haven Care Centre 125 125 Subarea 4 Subtotals 132 102 0
223 5
Abattoir Adult Foster Care 6
1 5
Deverney Adult Foster Care 12 1
5 Forest Beach AFC Home 15 8
5 Juniper Home 6
10 5
Pine Manor Adult Foster Care 18 1
Subarea 5 Subtotals 57 0
0 21 EPZ Totals 192 102 0
245
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Revision 12 Page 13 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 2.8 Population estimates for schools and preschools, and daycare centers.
Summer Winter Subarea Facility Day Night Weekend Day Night Weekend 3
Covert Elementary 0
0 0
454 0
0 Covert High School 0
0 0
192 0
0 Subarea 3 Subtotals 0
0 0
646 0
0 4
Central Elementary 0
0 0
534 0
0 Hartman Elementary 0
0 0
124 0
0 Indiana Elementary 0
0 0
116 0
0 Lincoln Elementary 0
0 0
489 0
0 Maple Grove Elementary 0
0 0
220 0
0 South Haven High School 0
0 0
764 0
0 South Haven Middle School 0
0 0
408 0
0 St. Basil's Catholic Church 0
0 0
201 0
0 St. Paul's Lutheran School 0
0 0
70 0
0 Sunshine Day Care and Preschool 38 0
0 33 0
0 Tiny Tots Preschool 208 0
0 208 0
0 Subarea 4 Subtotals 246 0
0 3,167 0
0 5
Bangor High School 0
0 0
485 0
0 Bangor Middle School 0
0 0
482 0
0 Bangor Primary School 0
0 0
551 0
0 Coloma Elementary 0
0 0
510 0
0 Coloma High School 0
0 0
386 0
0 Coloma Junior High 0
0 0
564 0
0 Coloma Middle School 0
0 0
386 0
0 Coloma Migrant Program 186 0
0 0
0 0
Faith Evangelic Lutheran 0
0 0
26 0
0 Harford Center 68 0
0 68 0
0 Preschool Learning Center 103 0
0 103 0
0 Salem Lutheran School 0
0 0
25 0
0 Washington Elementary 0
0 0
481 0
0 St. Joseph Prekindergarten 0
0 0
26 0
0 Wood School 0
0 0
73 0
0 Subarea 5 Subtotals 357 0
0 4,166 0
0 EPZ Totals 603 0
0 7,979 0
0
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 14 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Permanent Population Adiustments The permanent population was adjusted to account for those individuals that commute to workplaces outside the EPZ. In the event of an actual evacuation, these individuals would be outside the EPZ and would already be evacuated.
Table P31 of the U.S. Census Summary File 3 (SF3) was used to estimate the portion of employees (citizens > 16 years age) commuting to workplaces outside the EPZ. A commute time of greater than 30 minutes was assumed to be indicative of travel outside the EPZ. Based on this assumption and using Table P31 of SF3, approximately 33% of Van Buren County residents leave the EPZ for work and approximately 20% of Berrien County residents leave the EPZ for work. There are no major employers in the Allegan County portion of the EPZ.
Employee Population Adiustments The employee populations were adjusted to reflect the knowledge that some of the employees at workplaces in the EPZ probably commute from outside the EPZ and thus were not also counted in the permanent population. During the telephone conversations conducted to update the employee populations, the employers were asked to estimate the percentage of employees traveling more than 10 miles to work.
Unfortunately, none of the employers listed in Table 2.2 were able to provide such estimates.
The only worker demographic information was provided by emergency planning officials from Van Buren County and is summarized in Table 2.9. Of the approximate 19,737 workers in Van Buren County, 15,286 (or 77.5%) were from Van Buren County. It was assumed that the remaining 4,451 workers from outside the county were also from outside the EPZ. The employee transient population was not counted as permanent population and the adjustment was 22.5% (4,451/19,737).
Hotel, Motel, Park and Marina Populations It was assumed that the transient populations estimated at hotels and motels, and for parks and recreation areas and marinas would be from outside the EPZ and were not part of the permanent population. While it is possible that permanent residents could be using these facilities, which would constitute double counting, no data was available to make such an estimate. Also, it is possible that some of the hotel and motel population might also use parks and recreation areas while in the EPZ, which would also result in double counting. Similarly, no data was available to make an estimate so it was assumed that hotel and motel populations and park and recreation area populations were distinct and separate.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 15 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Hospital Populations It was assumed that all patients at hospitals were from outside the EPZ. The staff were treated as employees (listed in Table 2.2) and adjusted as discussed in Sections 2.5.2.
Table 2.9 Estimation of employees commuting into the EPZ for work.
Van Buren County worker place of residence No. of workers Van Buren County 15,286 Berrien County 892 Allegan County 1,154 Cass County 451 Kalamazoo County 1,638 Other 316 Total workers from outside Van Buren County 4,451 (22.5%)
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 16 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Nursing and Group Home Populations It was assumed that all residents of nursing and group homes reside at such facilities on a permanent basis and were counted as permanent residents in the Census data. Therefore, no adjustments to these populations were necessary.
School Populations The data for schools given in Table 2.8 indicate population estimates for both staff and students. All student populations, and a portion of the staff population, were also considered part of the permanent population. During non-school times (evenings and summers) students were assumed to reside at their residences.
Special Events Populations No data was available to estimate the percentage of the special event attendees that reside outside the EPZ. Therefore, it was assumed that all special event attendees reside outside the EPZ and were not counted as part of the permanent population.
3.0 VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATION Once the specific population components were established the average number of people occupying vehicles was determined. Following are vehicle demand estimates for each of the population components.
3.1 Vehicle Demands of the Permanent Population The average household size and vehicle occupancy data were estimated using Summary File 3 of the U.S. 2000 census. The population of each county was taken from Table P39 of Summary File 1, the number of households was taken from Table DP-4 of SF3, and the number of vehicles was taken from Table H46 of SF3.
For Allegan County the average household size was 105,665 persons per 43,292 households, or 2.44. The vehicle occupancy for the permanent population was 105,665 persons per 75,510 vehicles or 1.40.
For Berrien County the household size was 162,452/73,445, or 2.21.
Vehicle occupancy was 162,452/110,443, or 1.47.
In Van Buren County, the household size was 76,263!33,975, or 2.24.
Vehicle occupancy was 76,263/54,292, or 1.41.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 17 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES A summary of the permanent population, households, and vehicle count by subarea is given in Table 3.1. The data presented in Table 3.1 are estimates of the maximum permanent population and vehicle counts but do not reflect the minor corrections discussed in Section 2.5.1.
3.2 Vehicle Demands of Transient Populations Vehicle Demands of Employees Estimates of vehicle counts for employees are given in Table 3.2. The employee populations given in Table 2.2 were adjusted to account for only those individuals living outside the EPZ (50% of total) and were applied to each shift. Vehicle estimates were based on the assumption that an average of one person would occupy evacuating vehicles. Most, if not all, staff at schools would accompany students to relocation centers and are not counted in this table.
Vehicle Demands for Other Transient Populations A summary of vehicle demand estimates for populations at hotels and motels is given in Table 3.3. Populations in motels and hotels were based on the assumptions that room occupancy is an average of two persons per room. Vehicle demands for hotels and motels were based on the assumption that one vehicle per room would be used during an evacuation.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT Al SITE EMERGENCY PLAN RE POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 3.1 Summary of the permanent population, households, and vehicle count by subarea.
DPPENDIX C
-vision 12 ige 18 of 32 Subarea 1
2 3
4 (Van Buren) 4 (Allegan) 5 (Van Buren) 5 (Berrien)
Van Buren County Allegan County Berrien County TOTAL EPZ Perm Pop This study 2,001 1,939 2,360 10,283 1,433 4,308 10,703 20,891 1,433 10,703 33,027 Households 893 866 1,054 4,591 587 1,923 4,843 9,326 587 4,843 14,757 Vehicles 1,419 1,375 1,674 7,293 1,024 3,055 7,281 14,816 1,024 7,281 23,121
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Revision 12 Page 19 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 3.2 Summary of the adjusted population and vehicle demand estimates for employees.
Workforce Population Vehicles Subarea Facility Day Night Weekend Day Night Weekend 1
Palisades Nuclear Power Plant 395 315 315 395 315 315 Subarea I Subtotals 395 315 315 395 315 315 2
Adkin's Blue Ribbon Packaging 60 0
0 60 0
0 Alpha Engineering 3
0 0
3 0
0 Baars Printing Company 6
0 0
6 0
0 Bohn Engine and Foundry 200 150 5
200 150 5
Taylor Controls, Inc 12 0
0 12 0
0 Subarea 2 Subtotals 281 150 5
281 150 5
4 American Twisting Co 25 20 0
25 20 0
Anderson Box 4
0 0
4 0
0 B & K Machine 15 5
0 15 5
0 BEI Incorporated 24 0
0 24 0
0 Consumers Concrete Co 8
0 0
8 0
0 Controlled Rubber Products 60 60 0
60 60 0
Daggett's Concrete Products 10 0
3 10 0
3 Precision Machine 14 0
0 14 0
0 Scott Aviation Plant 4 45 45 0
45 45 0
SE Overton Co 50 0
0 50 0
0 Sherman Dairy Products, Inc 50 0
0 50 0
0 South Haven Coil 50 0
0 50 0
0 South Haven Community Hospital 152 100 100 152 100 100 South Haven Rubber Co 40 30 0
40 30 0
System Components, Inc 35 0
0 35 0
0 Triangle Trades, Inc 20 0
0 20 0
0 Wyckoff Chemical Company, Inc 60 0
0 60 0
0 Subarea 4 Subtotals 662 260 103 662 260 103 5
Custom Built Brush Co 12 0
0 12 0
0 Hipskind Building Supply 10 0
0 10 0
0 InnoCorp 25 0
0 25 0
0 Jarvis Concrete Products 3
0 0
3 0
0 Menasa Corporation 70 40 0
70 40 0
Modem Light Metals 14 0
0 14 0
0 Russell Vending Company 7
0 0
7 0
0 Shoreline Industries 15 8
0 15 8
0 Spartan Industries 8
0 0
8 0
0 Watervliet Fruit Exchange 7
0 0
7 0
0 Watervliet Paper Company 285 0
0 285 0
0 Watervliet Hospital 110 90 90 110 90 90 WestGate Oil 8
3 0
8 3
0 Subarea 5 Subtotals 574 141 90 574 141 90 EPZ Totals 1,912 866 513 1,912 866 513
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Revision 12 Page 20 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 3.3 Vehicle demand for hotels, motels, bed and breakfasts within the EPZ.
Population Vehicles Subarea Facility Day Night Weekend Day Night Weekend 4
A & R's North Beach Inn and Cottages 40 40 40 20 20 20 A Country Place Bed and Breakfast 29 29 29 15 15 15 Arundel House 25 25 25 13 13 13 Compton's Cove 32 32 32 16 16 16 Elmhurst Farm Inn 10 10 10 5
5 5
North Beach Inn and Restaurant 16 16 16 8
8 8
Old Harbor Inn 65 65 65 33 33 33 The Colonial 70 70 70 35 35 35 The Last Resort Bed and Breakfast Inn 34 34 34 17 17 17 The New Victoria Inn 54 54 54 27 27 27 Subarea 4 Subtotals 375 375 375 188 188 188 5
Cez Du Lac Motel 9
9 9
5 5
5 Motto's Resort 42 42 42 21 21 21 Subarea 5 Subtotals 51 51 51 26 26 26 EPZ Totals 426 426 426 213 213 213
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 21 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES A summary for parks and recreation areas was given in Table 2.4. Populations and vehicle estimates for parks and recreational facilities were based on telephone conversations, Internet searches and assumptions that maximum use is based on available parking spaces. A population of four persons per parking space was assumed. A summary of all transient populations by subarea is given in Table 3.4.
3.3 Vehicle Demands of Special Facility Populations Estimates of the special facilities populations were presented in Table 2.6 (hospitals), Table 2.7 (nursing and group homes) and Table 2.8 (schools, preschools, daycares). Estimates of the special needs individuals and transportation-dependent individuals were presented in Section 2.3.1.
Most individuals in the special facilities population are ambulatory and would not require special transportation capability such as wheel chair lifts or ramps or an ambulance. Nevertheless, the staff at the Country Side Nursing Home and the South Haven Community Hospital (both in Subarea 4) and The Watervliet Hospital in Subarea 5 did indicate that as many as 140 persons might require wheel chair-capable transportation.
Also, the two hospitals indicated that as many as 22 people may require ambulance transportation.
It was assumed that all special facility populations, including the necessary staff persons, would evacuate with the population via bus, van, ambulance, or other suitable means as described in existing response plans.
Emergency planning officials provided listings of transportation resources that would be available in an evacuation event.
Van Buren County has available up to 156 school buses each with a capacity of 72 persons. Also, Van Buren County has 34 special education vehicles each with a capacity of 15 persons. Van Buren Transit could also provide 12 additional buses with capacities of 12 plus one wheel chair each, 7 buses with capacities of 22 plus two wheel chairs each, and two minivans providing capacity of nineteen. Allegan County has available 61 buses each with a capacity of 66.
Ambulances would be available from South Haven Emergency (2), Covert Fire and Ambulance (2), Van Buren EMS (4 + 3 wheel chair units), and Coloma Ambulance (3). Each ambulance unit has a capacity of two persons (plus crew). Based on these resource estimates, bus capacity is approximately 16,000 persons, wheel chair capacity is 32 persons, and ambulance capacity is 11 persons.
A summary of the special facility populations and vehicle demand is given in Table 3.5.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Revision 12 Page 22 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 3.4 Summary of transient populations and vehicle demand by subarea.
Subarea Number of Persons Number of Vehicles Weekday Night Weekend Weekday Night Weekend 1
7,295 7,215 7,215 2,235 2,155 2,155 2
281 150 5
281 150 5
3 100 100 100 55 55 55 4
5,847 5,445 5,288 2,175 1,773 1,616 5
1,579 1,146 1,095 874 395 390 EPZ Total 15,102 14,056 13,703 15,620 4,528 4,221-
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Revision 12 Page 23 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 3.5 Summary of special populations and vehicle demand by subarea.
Subarea Number of Persons Number of Vehicles (no of buses unless noted)
Ambulatory WC Req Amb Ambulatory WC Req Amb 3
649a 0
0 1 0 0
0 4
3,502 128 12 49b 64 6
5 4,480 12 10 63 6
5 EPZTotal 8,631 140 22 122 72 11 afrom Table 2.8, 646 + 1 staff/20 students (=33) + 3 from Table 2.7.
bbased on expected bus capacity of 72 for Van Buren County transportation resources. Actual vehicle demand would likely be more if Allegan County transportation resources were also used because bus capacities are less (66).
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 24 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES 4.0 METHODOLOGY 4.1 Estimation of Trip Generation Times Trip generation times can be thought as descriptions of how vehicles begin to move on the roadway network. In this study, it was assumed that no vehicles would begin evacuating for at least 30 minutes (maximum 15 minute notification time and 15 minute trip preparation time) after the declaration of an emergency. It must be emphasized that the evacuating public will not begin to leave at the same time. Rather, the departure times for vehicles vary. A common way of expressing trip generation times is with cumulative time distributions. The set of these distribution used for this study is presented in Figure 4.1.
Departure times are a function of trip preparation times, perceived urgency, and logistics involved in arriving home from work and coordinating efforts with other family members. It was assumed that all the permanent population would begin an evacuation within two hours of an emergency announcement.
It was assumed that the transient population would be informed of the evacuation within 30 minutes. While employees may be expected to remain at the workplace to facilitate workplace shutdowns, it was assumed that such activities would not last longer than 30 minutes. Other components of the transient population (ie; hotel and motel patrons) would likely act similarly.
Schools will be evacuated, also at the Site Area Emergency level, directly to reception centers as soon as transportation resources arrive at the schools.
It was assumed that bus mobilization times would be about an hour.
Accordingly, the schools population could be expected to evacuate within ninety minutes of an evacuation decision.
4.2 Evacuation Routes The evacuation routes evaluated in this study have been established in previous traffic network analyses and reflect the need to move vehicles from specific subareas to designated relocation destinations. The purpose of this study is to generate evacuation time estimates assuming these routes are appropriate. Evacuation routes are listed by subarea in Table 4.1.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN A PPENDIX C evision 12 age 25 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 4.1 The cumulative time distribution describing the rate of evacuation commencement for the various population components.
C 0
0 0~
0) m CL co 100 90 80 -
70 60 -
50 40 -
30 20 10 0
'Transient Population Special Facilities Permanent Population 0
30 60 90 Time (min.)
120 150 180
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 26 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 4.2 Evacuation routes for the Palisades EPZ.
Evacuation Routes Subarea 1 Blue Star Highway North Blue Star Highway South 1-196 South 1-196 North 30th Ave East 32nd Ave East Subarea 2 Blue Star Highway North Blue Star Highway South Adam Road North Highway 1 South 1-196 South 1-196 North 12 th Ave East 16nd Ave East Subarea 3 Blue Star Highway North Blue Star Highway South 1-196 South 1-196 North Coloma North Road South 70th Street South 3 0 th Ave East 34nd Ave East Subarea 4 Blue Star Highway North Blue Star Highway South 1-196 South 1-196 North 68th Street North 66th Street North 62nd Street North Kibbie Lacota Road East Phoenix Road East 8th Ave East 12th Ave East 16 th Ave East Subarea 5 Blue Star Highway North Blue Star Highway South 1-196 South 1-196 North Coloma North Road South Friday Road South 70th Street South
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 27 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES 4.3 Estimation of Highway Capacity Once the vehicle demand and loading characteristics (eg, trip generation time) have been determined the next step is to estimate the capacity of the street and highway network. The ability of the road network to handle vehicle demand is a major factor in determining evacuation times.
By definition, capacity is the maximum numbers of vehicles that can pass a given point during a specified period considering roadway, traffic, and control conditions (ie, signaling or signage). By convention, capacity is expressed in units of vehicles per hour (vph).
In discussing capacity, different traffic flow conditions have been assigned alphabetical designations, A through F, to generally reflect varying traffic operational characteristics. These designations have been termed "Levels of Service" (LOS). For example, LOS A connotes free-flow and high-speed operating conditions; LOS F represents a forced flow condition. LOS E describes traffic operating at or near capacity.
Because of the effect of weather on the capacity of a roadway, it is necessary to adjust capacity figures to represent estimated road conditions during inclement weather. Based on limited empirical data, weather conditions such as heavy rain reduce the values of capacity for highways by approximately 20%. For snowy weather conditions during the winter months, reductions of 25% relative to normal weather conditions were assumed. Free-flow speeds for inclement weather conditions were also reduced 20% for rain and 25% for snow. These factors are applied to all roadway segments.
In the congested traffic environment, which is often characteristic of an evacuation scenario, the capacity of a roadway section has the greatest effect on travel time. The major factors that control capacity of intersections and the approaches to intersections are turning movements, competing traffic streams, control regimes, traffic composition, and approach geometries. The major factors that control capacity along roadway segments are traffic composition, weather conditions, pavement conditions, and lighting.
Capacity estimations were made for two-lane roads, multi-lane roads, multi-lane freeways, and freeway ramps. Estimates for roads and freeways were done on a "per lane" basis. Capacities at intersections were approximated by the simulation software and are described later.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 28 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES To represent the varying road types and geometries, roads were categorized in the following manner:
10 ft lanes with 1 ft shoulders 11 ft lanes with 2 ft shoulders 12 ft lanes with 6 ft shoulders Using data from Chapter 20 of HCM 2000 and from the previous ETES for the PNPP estimates were made for both two-way and one-way traffic.
Highway capacity was estimated to be 1,000 vph per lane. Freeway capacity was estimated to be 1,692 vph per lane and freeway ramp capacity was estimated to be 1,333 vph.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 29 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES 4.4 Application of EPZ Data to Model The model simulation tools used for this ETE are grouped together in a computer software package called the Traffic Software Integrated System (TSIS). TSIS is developed and distributed by the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). TSIS consists of several modules, or components, that can be used to represent entire traffic environments.
The first tool used in TSIS is TRAFED, a graphical tool that allows one to create representations of traffic networks and is specifically designed to work with FHWA's Corridor Simulation (CORSIM) microscopic traffic simulator. CORSIM consists of an integrated set of two microscopic models; NETSIM represents traffic on urban streets and FRESIM represents traffic on freeways.
In this study, the network of major roadways in the PNPP was entered into TSIS using the TRAFED module. TRAFED network layouts consist of a series of nodes and links. In general, nodes can be thought of as intersections and links can be thought of as roadways. Some nodes are not intersections but represent sources or sinks of traffic, or describe a connection between a FRESIM and NETSIM modules. Source nodes were used to describe traffic loading onto the roadway network from population "centroids". These centroids were developed by combining vehicle counts from adjoining census blocks. Sink, or exit, nodes represented points on evacuation routes outside the EPZ.
Once a roadway network has been developed and the entry nodes have been edited to reflect the loading histograms, the TRAFED file is loaded into the CORSIM module. CORSIM is a stochastic, or probabilistic model. This means that random numbers are generated and assigned to vehicles.
When a simulation is run the characteristics of that vehicles travel are the result of a specific set of random numbers. Therefore, to gain a better understanding of transportation the network must be simulated several times using different sets of random numbers. In this study, each scenario examined was run at least three times.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 30 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES 5.0 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES 5.1 Evacuation Regions and Scenarios Evacuation Regions The Palisades NPP EPZ is divided into five subareas that reflect a best match between geographic boundaries and two-, five-, and ten-mile radii around the plant.
Federal guidance documents also specify that the EPZ be divided into sixteen sectors each representing 22.50 segments around the compass'. In the event of an emergency, officials will consider the severity and nature of the emergency and weather conditions (eg, wind strength and direction),
and will recommend protective action for some or all of the subareas.
Officials will specify which segment(s) at what distance from the Palisades NPP (2-, 5-, or 10-miles) are affected. This "keyhole" is superimposed on the EPZ map and subarea area selected. Sixteen compass segments at three different radii yields forty-eight, subarea groupings. Because there are only 5 subareas, however, most of the subarea groups are the same.
To avoid redundant analyses of scenarios a list of unique subarea groups was assembled and is given in Table 5.1. Each of these six subarea groups is referred to as an Evacuation Region.
Evacuation Scenarios To evaluate the evacuation of the Palisades NPP EPZ under circumstances that offer different population composition and attributes, evacuation time estimates were conducted considering different combinations of these scenarios. An evacuation scenario can be thought of as a specific set of conditions that might exist at the commencement of a General Emergency.
The conditions considered in this study are season (summer versus winter),
day of the week (weekday versus weekend day), Time of day (daytime versus evening or night), and weather (fair or poor). If the season is summer poor weather is rain and if the season is winter poor weather is a 6-8" snow. These scenarios are given in Table 5.2.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C SITE EMERGENCY PLAN Revision 12 Page 31 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES 5.2 EPZ Evacuation Time Estimates Using data described in Section 3.0 and the simulation described in Section 4.0, evacuation time estimates were made. The results of these estimates are summarized in Table 5.3 and Table 5.4. The times provided in this table represent estimates of travel time of the last evacuating vehicle to reach the EPZ edge and do not consider travel time from the EPZ edge to a relocation center. It should also be noted that these estimates only reflect the movement of people from the affected areas and do not reflect movement of those individuals that might evacuate from subareas adjoining the affected subarea(s).
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Revision 12 Page 32 of 32 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 5.1 Evacuation regions for the Palisades NPP EPZ.
Evac I Subareas Region 1
1 l
2 1
2 3
1 3
4 1
2 3
4 5
1 2
3 5
6 1
2 3
4 5
Table 5.2 Evacuation scenarios.
Scenario Season Day Time of Day Weather 1
Summer Weekend Midday Fair 2
Summer Weekend Midday Poor/Adverse 3*
Summer Weekend Evening/Night Fair 4*
Summer Weekend Evening/Night Poor/Adverse 5
Summer Weekday Midday Fair 6
Summer Weekday Midday Poor/Adverse 7
Summer Weekday Evening/Night Fair 8
Summer Weekday Evening/Night Poor/Adverse 9
Winter Weekend Midday Fair 10 Winter Weekend Midday Poor/Adverse 11 Winter Weekend Evening/Night Fair 12 Winter Weekend Evening/Night Poor/Adverse 13 Winter Weekday Midday Fair 14 Winter Weekday Midday Poor/Adverse 15 Winter Weekday Evening/Night Fair 16 Winter Weekday Evening/Night Poor/Adverse
- Includes summer festival populations.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 1 of 28 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Table 5.3 Evacuation Times Estimates (in minutes) for Scenarios 1-8 Scenarios Region 1
2 3
4 5
6 7
8 Summer Summer Summer Summer Summer Summer Summer Summer Weekend Weekend Weekend Weekend Weekday Weekday Weekday Weekday Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Fair Poor Fair Poor Fair Poor Fair Poor 1
150 170 150 170 150 170 140 150 2
170 180 170 180 180 190 170 170 3
160 170 160 170 170 170 150 150 4
290 320 540 600 230 240 230 230 5
300 300 560 600 230 240 220 230 6
320 340 600 620 260 280 240 230 Table 5.4 Evacuation Times Estimates (in minutes) for Scenarios 9-16.
Scenarios Region 9
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Winter Winter Winter Winter Winter Winter Winter Winter Weekend Weekend Weekend Weekend Weekday Weekday Weekday Weekday Midday Midday Evening Evening Midday Midday Evening Evening Fair Poor Fair Poor Fair Poor Fair Poor 1
160 180 170 180 180 190 160 160 2
170 190 170 190 180 250 190 210 3
160 190 170 190 190 210 180 190 4
310 350 300 330 360 390 230 240 5
320 350 320 340 340 400 330 340 6
380 380 360 390 400 440 380 420
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 2 of 28 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES PERMANENT POPULATION DATA STFID is a concatenated string of state (26), county (eg, 159), block tract (eg, 960500), and census block (4 digits).
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HU 1 00 is the number of households ZTCA5 is the five-digit zip code AREALAND is the Block land area in units of sq. meters AREAWATR is the Block water area in units of sq. meters Subarea 1 (Van Buren County)
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PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 3 of 28 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES I -4.STF10 J',,,POP1OOIHU1oolAREALANDIlAikEAWATRIZCTA5IPOjPOENS 261590106001003 73 124 1955068 o
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PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 4 of 28 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Subarea 2 (Van Buren County)
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PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 6 of28 SITE EMERGENCY PLAN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Subarea 3 (Van Buren County) l1i p ijoPi oGIHui oOIAIt ALANblAREtAWAtRtI~CtAIPbO~bENS
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PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 9 of 28 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES k
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PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 10 of 28 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES lSTF:ID~
POPP 1OAR AND AREAWATR TA5 POPDENS 1261590102003028 4 3
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149090 1 67 261590102003029 35 16 11849540 0
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49090 3063 261590104002017 37 13 12398 0
49090 J 7729 261590104002018 37 12 10944 0
49090 8756 261590104002019 20 7
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49090 4330 261590104002020 20 10 11777 0
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PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 13 of 28 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES v
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PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 15 of 28 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES Subarea 4 (Allegan County)
IL AT D. MX IPOPiIHfl4U1 tlOIAREALANDIAREAWATRIZCTA5iPOPDENs 260050309004000 38 16 945416 0
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PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 25 of 28 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES I -STIF
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PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 26 of 28 SITE EMERGENCY PLAN POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES i TTPb PO.P1O H ZTU1 40ALAD IAEWAOOZtA5 P0 S1 260210102006025 39 15 10493 10 l49038 9626 260210102006026 0 1
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w i s PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT SITE EMERGENCY PLAN APPENDIX C Attachment A Revision 12 Page 27 of 28 POPULATION DISTRIBUTION AND EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES I
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Procedure No El-6.13 Revision 13 Effective Date 9119/05 PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT EMERGENCY IMPLEMENTING PROCEDURE TITLE: PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OFFSITE POPULATIONS Approved: NKBrott l
9/19/05 Procedure Sponsor Date New Procedure/Revision Summary:
Editorial to Revision 13 Specific Changes
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT Proc No El-6.13 EMERGENCY IMPLEMENTING PROCEDURE Revision 13 Page i TITLE: PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OFFSITE POPULATIONS Table of Contents 1.0 RESPONSIBILITIES AND AUTHORITIES
............................1 2.0 PURPOSE........................................
3.0 REFERENCES
2 3.1 SOURCE DOCUMENTS......................................
2 3.2 REFERENCE DOCUMENTS......................................
2 4.0 INITIAL CONDITIONS AND/OR REQUIREMENTS.......................................
3 5.0 PRECAUTIONS AND LIMITATIONS......................................
4 6.0 PROCEDURE........................................
5 6.1 DECLARATION OF UNUSUAL EVENT OR ALERT..................................... 5 6.2 DECLARATION OF A SITE AREA EMERGENCY......................................
5 6.3 DECLARATION OF GENERAL EMERGENCY......................................
5 6.3.1 Initial Recommendation........................................
5 6.3.2 Follow-Up Recommendation........................................
6 7.0 ATTACHMENTS AND RECORDS..........................
6 7.6 RECORDS.........................
6 8.0 SPECIAL REVIEWS...............
7 ATTACHMENTS, "Protective Action Recommendations for Offsite Population", "Area/Sector Map", "Determination of Affected Downwind Sectors", "Palisades 1 0-Mile EPZ Evacuation Time Estimates Summary", "Projected Dose Evaluation From Field Data"
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT Proc No El-6.13 EMERGENCY IMPLEMENTING PROCEDURE Revision 13 Page 1 of 7 TITLE: PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OFFSITE POPULATIONS USER ALERT REFERENCE USE PROCEDURE Refer to the procedure periodically to confirm that all procedure segments of an activity will be or are being performed. Where required, sign appropriate sign-off blanks to certify that all segments are complete.
1.0 RESPONSIBILITIES AND AUTHORITIES This procedure provides protective action recommendations. The authority and responsibility for the selection and implementation of offsite response options rests fully with the appropriate state and local authorities. Nuclear Management Company (NMC) has no authority with respect to imposing protective response options beyond the boundaries of its site.
1.1 If the Technical Support Center (TSC) is not operational, the Shift Manager/Site Emergency Director is responsible for recommending protective actions to local or state authorities.
1.2 If the TSC is operational, but the Emergency Operations Facility (EOF) is not operational, Radiation Protection staff will be responsible for providing dose calculations and advising the Site Emergency Director on protective action recommendations. The Operations Support Group is responsible for providing core damage determinations. The Site Emergency Director is responsible for recommending protective actions to the local or state authorities.
1.3 If the EOF is operational, the Radiation Protection staff in that facility is responsible for providing dose calculations and advising the EOF Director on a protective action recommendation. A Reactor Engineer is available to provide core damage determinations. The EOF Director is responsible for making protective action recommendations and should discuss the protective action with the SED before recommending protective actions to the local or state authority.
2.0 PURPOSE This procedure provides guidelines for determining protective actions for the general public to be recommended to the appropriate local or state authorities in the event of a radiological emergency.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT Proc No El-6.13 EMERGENCY IMPLEMENTING PROCEDURE Revision 13 Page 2 of 7 TITLE: PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OFFSITE POPULATIONS
3.0 REFERENCES
3.1 SOURCE DOCUMENTS 3.1.1 Emergency Implementing Procedure El-1, "Emergency Classification and Actions" 3.1.2 Emergency Implementing Procedure El-2.1, "Site Emergency Director" 3.1.3 Emergency Implementing Procedure El-1 1, "Determination of Extent of Core Damage" 3.1.4 Site Emergency Plan, Section 6, "Emergency Measures" 3.1.5 NUREG 0654, Rev 1 3.1.6 EA-JLF-93-01 3.2 REFERENCE DOCUMENTS 3.2.1 Emergency Implementing Procedure El-6.7, "Plant Site Meteorological System" 3.2.2 Emergency Implementing Procedure El-6.8, "Backup and Supplemental Meteorology" 3.2.3 Emergency Implementing Procedure El-6.9, "Automated Dose Assessment Program" 3.2.4 Emergency Implementing Procedure El-6.10, "Offsite Dose Calculation - Straight Line Gaussian (Manual Method)"
3.2.5 Emergency Implementing Procedure El-13, "Evacuation/Reassembly" 3.2.6 TOM COD Data Systems "Evacuation Time Estimates for the Palisades Power Plant Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone," December 19, 2003 3.2.7 Emergency Implementing Procedure El-3, "Communications and Notifications" 3.2.8 Palisades Administrative Procedure 10.46, "Plant Records" 3.2.9 NMC Fleet Procedure FP-G-DOC-04, "Procedure Processing"
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT Proc No El-6.13 EMERGENCY IMPLEMENTING PROCEDURE Revision 13 Page 3 of 7 TITLE: PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OFFSITE POPULATIONS 4.0 INITIAL CONDITIONS AND/OR REQUIREMENTS 4.1 provides a flowchart of PARs and the recommended protective actions for the plume exposure pathway. The flowchart is divided into three sections:
MINIMUM RECOMMENDATIONS - Minimum protective action recommendations when a General Emergency is being declared.
CORE/CONTAINMENT STATUS RECOMMENDATIONS - Protective actions that are required whenever major core/containment failure has occurred, or is projected.
OFFSITE DOSE STATUS RECOMMENDATIONS - Protective actions that are required when offsite doses exceed the EPA protective actions dose limits.
4.2 also includes tables for identifying affected areas.
4.3 is a map showing sectors and areas.
4.4 converts the direction the wind is coming from to the 3 affected downwind sectors.
4.5 provides evacuation time estimates for the 10 mile Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ).
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT Proc No El-6.13 EMERGENCY IMPLEMENTING PROCEDURE Revision 13 Page 4 of 7 TITLE: PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OFFSITE POPULATIONS 5.0 PRECAUTIONS AND LIMITATIONS This procedure is a guide for determining recommended protective actions. Since it is impossible to cover all potential situations, the judgment of the person responsible for recommending protective actions shall take precedence over the requirements of this procedure. However, since the protection of the general public is the ultimate concern, protective actions less stringent than those in this procedure should be recommended only if constraints make the actions a greater hazard to public health.
NOTE:
Severe core damage is indicated by:
- 1.
Loss of critical functions required for core protection (eg, loss of injection combined with a LOCA);
- 2.
High core temperatures;
- 3.
Very high radiation levels in area or process monitors.
Following the declaration of a General Emergency, the initial minimum protective action recommendation must focus on the status of the core. IF severe core damage cannot be ruled out, THEN the initial recommendation shall be to evacuate.
It may be concluded that "severe core damage cannot be ruled out" if any of the following conditions exist:
- a.
If there are symptoms of severe core damage, whether explainable or not.
- b.
If there is not enough information to positively state that there is no severe core damage.
- c.
If current plant conditions persist, severe core damage is projected, unless some improvement is seen in plant conditions.
Field surveys should be conducted to confirm dose projections. If these recommendations are available at the time a recommendation is made, they should be considered together with the dose projection. However, a protective action recommendation should not be delayed until field survey results are reported.
If Protective Action Guidelines are exceeded beyond 10 miles, consult with the state on ad hoc protective actions. The dose assessment computer may be used to estimate dose beyond 10 miles by changing the "Downwind Distance, Miles" parameter to a desired distance.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT EMERGENCY IMPLEMENTING PROCEDURE Proc No El-6.13 Revision 13 Page 5 of 7 TITLE: PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OFFSITE POPULATIONS 6.0 PROCEDURE USER ALERT REFERENCE USE PROCEDURE Refer to the procedure periodically to confirm that all procedure segments of an activity will be or are being performed. Where required, sign appropriate sign-off blanks to certify that all segments are complete.
6.1 DECLARATION OF UNUSUAL EVENT OR ALERT 6.1.1 Unusual Event - No protective actions required. Emergency Implementing Procedure El-3, "Communications and Notifications," Attachment 1, "Palisades Event Notification Form," should be used.
6.1.2 Alert - No protective actions required beyond accountability.
6.2 DECLARATION OF A SITE AREA EMERGENCY 6.2.1 Evacuate nonessential personnel from the site per Emergency Implementing Procedure El-13, "Evacuation/Reassembly."
6.3 DECLARATION OF GENERAL EMERGENCY 6.3.1 Initial Recommendation NOTE:
The Initial recommendation that is formulated should evaluate whether the Minimum, Core/Containment, or Dose Status recommendation is applicable.
The declaration of a General Emergency requires that an INITIAL PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATION be formulated (see Attachment 1, Pages 1 and 2) and communicated to offsite authorities.
- a.
IF the State Emergency Operations Center is not activated, THEN the SED shall personally communicate the General Emergency and the initial protective action recommendation to Van Buren County.
- b.
WHEN the State Emergency Operations Center (EOC) is activated, THEN the General Emergency and the initial protective action recommendation shall be communicated directly (via telephone) from the SED/EOF Director to the State EOC Director.
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT Proc No El-6.13 EMERGENCY IMPLEMENTING PROCEDURE Revision 13 Page 6 of 7 TITLE: PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OFFSITE POPULATIONS 6.3.2 Follow-Up Recommendation
- a.
Using available Plant status information, dose projections, and/or field surveys, and Attachment 1, "Protective Action Recommendations for Offsite Population," evaluate and recommend a follow-up protective action.
Notification to the appropriate state and local authorities shall be made as soon as the recommendation has been prepared (not later than 30 minutes after initial recommendations).
- b.
Assess the conditions affecting the follow-up protective action and make revisions to the protective action recommendation that include appropriate consideration of the protective action orders given to the public by offsite authorities. For example: If a protective action order has been given to the public to evacuate an area, a change in protective action recommendation to shelter would not be appropriate until the source of the threat to the public is clearly under control.
- c. provides a work sheet that may be used to assist in determining Projected TEDE, adult thyroid CDE, and/or skin DE from field survey data.
6.3.3 The Radiation Protection Group Leader should provide the protective action recommendation for SED/EOF Director approval.
6.3.4 Record the recommended protective action and affected area(s) on the Palisades Event Notification Form.
7.0 ATTACHMENTS AND RECORDS 7.1, "Protective Action Recommendations for Offsite Population" 7.2, "Area/Sector Map" 7.3, "Determination of Affected Downwind Sectors" 7.4, "Palisades 10-Mile EPZ Evacuation Time Estimates Summary" 7.5, "Projected Dose Evaluation From Field Data" 7.6 RECORDS Records generated by this procedure shall be filed in accordance with Palisades Administrative Procedure 10.46, "Plant Records." Refer to the records matrix attached to Palisades Administrative Procedure 10.46 for information needed to complete Record Indexing Form (Form 104).
PALISADES NUCLEAR PLANT EMERGENCY IMPLEMENTING PROCEDURE Proc No El-6.13 Revision 13 Page 7 of 7 TITLE: PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS FOR OFFSITE POPULATIONS 8.0 SPECIAL REVIEWS The scope of this procedure does not include activities that require a 50.59 review per NMC Fleet Procedure FP-G-DOC-04, "Procedure Processing." Therefore, changes to this procedure. do not require a 50.59 review.
I
PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS Proc No El-6.13 Attachment I Revision 13 Page 1 of 2 FOR OFFSITE POPULATION I
Minimum Recommendations Is it known with certainty that the release duration will be < 1 hour1.157407e-5 days <br />2.777778e-4 hours <br />1.653439e-6 weeks <br />3.805e-7 months <br /> (or)
Travel impediments exist?
Yes TABLE I - 1 0 - 5 Miles Wind Direction Conversion Wind Direction Areas Affected Degrees (From):
Ž169 and <236 1 and2 2236 and <303 1, 2 and 3 2303 and <56 1 and 3 256 and <169 1
PROTECTIVE ACTION RECOMMENDATIONS Proc No El-6.13 Revision 13 Page 2 of 2 FOR OFFSITE POPULATION Core/Containment Status I
Recommendations Iable 1-2 0-10 Miles Wind Direction Conversion ind Direction Degrees Areas Affected (From):
>16 and <236 1,2, 3and4
>236 and <303 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 3O3 and <56 1, 2, 3 and 5
<56 and <1691 1, 2, and 3 NOTE 1: If there are known travel impediments (Adverse weather that impacts most or all the Affected Areas e.g. a blizzard which has caused known widespread road closures or an ongoing security event in which Areas I and 2 and/or 3 have or potentially will be occupied by an adversarial force),
initially shelter rather than evacuate until conditions improve.
NOTE 2: Sheltering may be the appropriate action for controlled releases from containment if there is assurance that the release is short term (puff release) and the area near the plant cannot be evacuated before the plume arrives.
NOTE3 IfTEDE>1REMor Thyroid CDE > 5 REM are expected to be exceeded beyond 10 Miles consult with the State of Michigan on ad hoc protective actions
Proc No El-6.13 Revision 13 Page 1 of I AREAISECTOR MAP A
R43 111 4 D
/ 35 1
~
+
A
~Q33f40 1 //A 4
F 191 114' J
6 j3J4'
Proc No El-6.13 Revision 13 Page 1 of 1 DETERMINATION OF AFFECTED DOWNWIND SECTORS WIND DIRECTION SECTOR AFFECTED DOWNWIND SECTORS (DEGREES FROM)
CENTERLINE ADJACENT 169-191 J
A R
B 192-213 K
B A
C 214-236 L
C B
D 237-258 M
D C
E 259-281 N
E D
F 282-303 P
F E
G 304-326 Q
G F
H 327-348 R
H G
J 349-11 A
J H
K 12-33 B
K J
L 34-56 C
L K
M 57-78 D
M L
N 79-101 E
N M
P 102-123 F
P N
Q 124-146 G
Q P
R 147-168 H
R Q
A
Proc No El-6.13 Revision 13 Page 1 of 1 PALISADES 10-MILE EPZ EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES
SUMMARY
AREA i::
- 0i::
ARE;ArDESGRIPTION&
UFI W-ETEXRWEAHRtAWEATH:ERE->;
jI Area 1 All sectors to 2 miles 180 160 190 Areas 1 & 2 All sectors to 2 miles - northeast sectors to 180 180 250 5 miles Areas 1 & 3 All sectors to 2 miles - southeast sectors to 190 180 210 5 miles Areas 1, 2, 3, & 4 All sectors to 5 miles - northeast sectors to 360 230 600 10 miles Areas 1, 2, 3 & 5 All sectors to 5 miles - southeast sectors to 340 330 600 10 miles Areas 1,2,3, 4, & 5 All sectors to 10 miles 400 380 620 These are comparative times based on data drawn from the Evacuation Time Estimates for the Palisades Nuclear Power Plant Plume Exposure Pathway Emergency Planning Zone, December 19, 2003, prepared by TOM COD Data Systems. Times are given in minutes.
PROJECTED DOSE EVALUATION FROM FIELD DATA Proc No EI-6.13 Revision 13 Page 1 of I
- 1.
Determination of Proiected TEDE:
NOTE:
Perform A OR B and then perform C AND D.
A.
DDE (Plume Shine or Immersion):
3-Foot Closed Window Reading Expected Duration (Default 2h)
X Projected DDE B.
DDE (Ground Disposition):
3-Inch Closed Window Reading Expected Duration (Default 96h)
X Projected DDE C.
CEDE:
Particulate:
mrem/h h
mrem (A) mrem/h h
mrem (B) pCi/cc x 3.90 E+7 mrem cc/tCikh* x mrem (C)
Iodine:
LCi/cc x 3.90 E+7 mrem cc/.Cikh* x D.
Projected TEDE:
mrem (A or B) +
mrem (C) + _
mrem (D) mrem (D) =
mrem (TEDE)
- 2.
Determination of Proiected Adult Thyroid CDE:
Iodine CDE:
_pCi/cc x 1.30 E+9 mrem cc/pCi-h* x -
h r--
mrem
- 3.
Determination of Proiected Skin DE:
3ft or 3in: (OW - CW) X BCF
=
mrem**
Expected Duration (default 2h)
X h
Projected Beta Skin DE
=
mrem Projected DDE (A or B)
+
mrem Total Projected Skin Dose
=
mrem Dose conversion factor from EPA400 Table 5-2.
Assumes 1 rad = 1 rem