ML033580419

Sensitivity Analysis

ML033580419
Person / Time
Site:	Arkansas Nuclear
Issue date:	11/21/2003
From:	- No Known Affiliation
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
FOIA/PA-2003-0358
Download: ML033580419 (10)

Text

Sensitivity Analysis A wide spectrum of sensitivity analyses were completed by requesting that the licensee calculate CCDP values which corresponded to various combinations of HEPs. The analysts determined that the calculated increase in CDF for Fire Zone 99-M was most likely in the range of 7E-6 to 2E-5. The analyst qualitatively determined that an additional increase in the CDF was warranted due the existence of additional fire zones at the facility which also credited the use of operator recovery actions. -t _

d~i1_P The licensee's human reliability analysis (HRA) was completed for non-fire conditions. The dominate recovery actions for a fire in Zone 99-M involved the establishment of emergency feedwater (EFW), the restoration of electrical power, and the establishment of feed and bleed capability. The associated non-fire human error probabilities for these recovery actions were 1.86E-1 for EFW, 1.OE-1 for electrical power, and 6E-3 for feed and bleed. The revised HRA estimate from the licensee included HEP values of 2.6E-1 for EFW, 1E-1 for electric power, and 3.2E-1 for feed and bleed.

The NRC analysts' completed a simplified HRA screening analysis using INEEUEXT-99-0041, "Revision of the 1994 ASP HRA Methodology (Draft)," January 1999. The HEP values using the assumption that procedures were available, but poor were 1.0 for EFW, 7.5E-1 for electric power, and 7.5E-1 for feed and bleed. The HEP values using the assumption that procedures were adequate were 6E-1 for EFW, 5.5E-1 for electric power, and 5.5E-1 for feed and bleed.

The delta CDF non-fire results were obtained by subtracting the associated recovery term from the NON-FIRE NOMINAL VALUE. The delta CDF revised HRA results (SPAR and Licensee) were obtained by subtracting the associated recovery term from the associated REVISED HRA NOMINAL VALUE.

FIRE ZONE 99M - SEVERITY FACTOR NOT APPLIED RECOVERY TERM CDF DELTA CDF DELTA CDF DELTA CDF NON FIRE REVISED REVISED HRA I ______________________________ HRA HRA (SPAR) (LICENSEE)

NON-FIRE NOMINAL VALUE 5.37E-07 N/A N/A N/A REVISED HRA NOMINAL VALUE (SPAR) 2.23E-5 N/A N/A N/A REVISED HRA NOMINAL VALUE ESTIMATE 2.28E-6 N/A N/A N/A (LICENSEE) _

ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.3, FEED 1.21 E-06 6.73E-07 N/A N/A AND BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED 6.05E-06 5.51 E-06 N/A 3.77E-6 AND BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.6, EFW 0.6, FEED 7.73E-06 7.19E-06 N/A 5.45E-6 AND BLEED 6E-3 _

ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED 8.46E-06 7.92E-06 N/A 6.1 8E-6 AND BLEED 0.1 ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED 1.52E-05 1.47E-05 N/A 1.29E-5 AND BLEED 0.3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.55, EFW 0.6, AND 2.23E-5 2.1 8E-5 N/A 2.OOE-5 FEED AND BLEED 0.55 ELECTRIC POWER 0.1, EFW 1.0, FEED 2.28E-05 2.23E-05 5.OOE-7 2.05E-5 AND BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 1.0, EFW 1.0, FEED 2.44E-05 2.39E-05 2.1OE-6 2.21 E-5 AND BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.75, EFW 1.0, FEED 1.07E-04 1.06E-04 8.47E-5 1.05E-4 AND BLEED 0.75

. .5.-

3SV_4

FIRE ZONE 99M WITH SEVERITY FACTOR APPLIED RECOVERY TERM CDF DELTA CDF DELTA CDF DELTA CDF NON FIRE REVISED REVISED HRA HRA HRA (SPAR) (LICENSEE)

NON-FIRE NOMINAL VALUE 3.15E-07 N/A N/A N/A REVISED HRA NOMINAL VALUE (SPAR) 1.31 E-5 N/A N/A N/A REVISED HRA NOMINAL VALUE ESTIMATE 1.43E-6 N/A N/A N/A (LICENSEE)

ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.3, FEED 7.13E-07 3.98E-07 N/A N/A AND BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED 3.55E-06 3.24E-06 N/A 2.21 E-6 AND BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED 4.97E-06 4.66E-06 N/A 3.63E-6 AND BLEED 0.1 ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED 8.94E-06 8.63E-06 N/A 7.6E-6 AND BLEED 0.3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.6, EFW 0.6, FEED 9.74E-06 9.43E-06 N/A 8.40E-6 AND BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.55, EFW 0.6, FEED 1.31 E-5 1.28E-5 N/A 1.18E-7 AND BLEED 0.55 ELECTRIC POWER 0.1, EFW 1.0, FEED 1.34E-05 1.31E-05 3.OOE-7 1.21E-5 AND BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 1.0, EFW 1.0, FEED 1.43E-05 1.40E-05 1.20E-6 1.30E-5 AND BLEED 6E-3 I I I ELECTRIC POWER 0.75, EFW 1.0, FEED 6.31 E-05 6.28E-05 5.OOE-5 6.1 BE-5 AND BLEED 0.75

. Sensitivity Analysis A wide spectrum of sensitivity analyses were completed by requesting that the licensee calculate CCDP values which corresponded to various combinations of HEPs. The analysts determined that the calculated increase in CDF for Fire Zone 99-M was most likely in the range of 7E-6 to 2E-5. The analyst qualitatively determined that an additional increase in the CDF was warranted due the existence of additional fire zones at the facility which also credited the use of operator recovery actions. I The licensee's human reliability analysis (HRA) was completed for non-fire conditions. The dominate recovery actions for a fire in Zone 99-M involved the establishment of emergency feedwater (EFW), the restoration of electrical power, and the establishment of feed and bleed capability. The associated non-fire human error probabilities for these recovery actions were 1.86E-1 for EFW, 1.OE-1 for electrical power, and 6E-$ for feed and bleed. The revised HRA estimate from the licensee included HEP values of 2,6E;afor EFW, 1E-1 for electric power, and 3.2E-1 for feed and bleed.

The NRC analysts' completed a simplified HRA screening analysis using INEEUEXT-99-0041, "Revision of the 1994 ASP HRA Methodology (Draft)," January 1999. The HEP values using the assumption that procedures were available, but poor were 1.0 for EFW, 7.5E-1 for electric power, and 7.5E-1 for feed and bleed. The HEP values using the assumption that procedures were adequate were 6E-1 for EFW, 5.5E-1 for electric power, and 5.5E-1 for feed and bleed.

The delta CDF non-fire results were obtained by subtracting the associated recovery term from the NON-FIRE NOMINAL VALUE. The delta CDF revised HRA results were obtained by subtracting the associated recovery term from the associated REVISED HRA NOMINAL VALUE.

FIRE ZONE 99M- SEVERITY FACTOR NOT APPLIED l RECOVERY TERM CDF DELTA CDF DELTA CDF DELTA CDF NON FIRE REVISED REVISED HRA l ______________________________ ________ HRA HRA (SPAR) (LICENSEE)

NON-FIRE NOMINAL VALUE 5.37E-07 N/A N/A N/A REVISED HRA NOMINAL VALUE (SPAR) 2.23E-5 N/A NIA N/A REVISED HRA NOMINAL VALUE ESTIMATE 2.28E-6 N/A N/A N/A (LICENSEE)

ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.3, FEED AN[ I 1.21E-06 6.73E-07 N/A N/A BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED AND 6.05E-06 5.51 E-06 N/A 3.77E-6 BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.6, EFW 0.6, FEED AND 7.73E-06 7.19E-06 N/A 5.45E-6 BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED AND 8.46E-06 7.92E-06 N/A 6.18E-6 BLEED 0.1 ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED AN[ I 1.52E-05 1.47E-05 N/A 1.29E-5 BLEED 0.3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.55, EFW 0.6, AND 2.23E-5 2.18E-5 N/A 2.OOE-5 FEED AND BLEED 0.55 ELECTRIC POWER 0.1, EFW 1.0, FEED AND 2.28E-05 2.23E-05 5.00E-7 2.05E-5 BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 1.0, EFW 1.0, FEED AND 2.44E-05 2.39E-05 2.1OE-6 2.21E-5 BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.75, EFW 1.0, FEED 1.07E-04 1.06E-04 8.47E-5 1.05E-4 AND BLEED 0.75

FIRE ZONE 99M WITH SEVERITY FACTOR APPLIED RECOVERY TERM CDF DELTA CDF DELTA CDF DELTA CDF NON FIRE REVISED REVISED HRA HRA HRA (SPAR) (LICENSEE)

NON-FIRE NOMINAL VALUE 3.15E-07 N/A N/A N/A REVISED HRA NOMINAL VALUE (SPAR) 1.31E-5 NIA N/A N/A REVISED HRA NOMINAL VALUE ESTIMATE 1.43E-6 N/A N/A N/A (LICENSEE)

ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.3, FEED AND 7.13E-07 3.98E-07 N/A N/A BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED AN[ 3.55E-06 3.24E-06 N/A 2.21E-6 BLEED 6E-3 _

ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED AN[ 4.97E-06 4.66E-06 N/A 3.63E-6 BLEED 0.1 ELECTRIC POWER 0.3, EFW 0.6, FEED AN[ 8.94E-06 8.63E-06 N/A 7.6E-6 BLEED 0.3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.6, EFW 0.6, FEED AN[ 9.74E-06 9.43E-06 N/A 8.40E-6 BLEED 6E-3 _

ELECTRIC POWER 0.55, EFW 0.6, FEED 1.31E-5 1.28E-5 N/A 1.18E-7 AND BLEED 0.55 ELECTRIC POWER 0.1, EFW 1.0, FEED AN[ 1.34E-05 1.31E-05 3.OOE-7 1.21E-5 BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 1.0, EFW 1.0, FEED AND 1.43E-05 1.40E-05 1.20E-6 1.30E-5 BLEED 6E-3 ELECTRIC POWER 0.75, EFW 1.0, FEED 6.31E-05 6.28E-05 5.OOE-5 6.18E-5 AND BLEED 0.75

A qualitative analysis of similarly affected fire zones in Unit 1 and Unit 2 was completed. The analyst compared the remaining 15 fire zones in Unit 1 which required manual actions for safe shutdown to Calculation 85-E-0053-47, 'Individual Plant Examination of External Events/Fire,"

Revision 2, to determine which fire zones were unscreened as part of the FIVE analysis. The following fire zones were unscreened.

Fire Description Ignition Automatic Multiple Zone Frequency Suppression Redundant Trains 197-X Turbine Building (A1/A2 Failed) 7.31 E-3 Partial No 149-E Upper North Electrical Penetration 2.66E-3 Yes Yes 100-N South Switchgear Room 1.13E-3 No Yes 104-S Electrical Equipment Room 3.71 E-3 No Yes 105-T Lower South Electrical Penetration 3.07E-4 Yes No Room 73-W Bowling Alley 1.06E-3 Partial Yes 76-W Compressor Room 3.86E-3 No Yes 34-Y Auxiliary Building Piping Area 5.91 E-4 No Yes The analyst compared the 21 fire zones in Unit 2 which required manual actions for safe shutdown to Calculation 85-E-0053-48, 'Individual Plant Examination of External Events/Fire,'

Revision 2, to determine which fire zones were unscreened as part of the FIVE analysis. The following fire zones were unscreened:

Fire Description Ignition Automatic Multiple Zone Frequency Suppression Redundant Trains 2200-MM Turbine Building A1/A2 Failed 1.8E-2 Partial No 2200-MM Turbine Building A1/A2 Not Failed 1.18E-3 Partial No 2100-Z 4160 Volt Switchgear Room A4 1.13E-3 No Yes 2096-M MCC (2B63) 1.25E-3 No Yes 2101 -AA 4160 Volt Switchgear Room A3 1.08E-3 No No 2108-S Electrical Equipment Room 368 6.3E-4 No Yes 2109-U EDG Access Corridor 2.01 E-3 Partial Yes 00 Intake Structure 1.78E-3 Partial Yes

Fire Description Ignition Automatic Multiple Zone Frequency Suppression Redundant Trains B3SC Super Compartment for Auxiliary 9.28E-3 No Yes Building (Area of concern is 2091 -BB) 2055SC Super Compartment for Lower 6.62E-4 2084-DD No 2084-DD Yes South Electrical and Piping Penetration Room 2111-TYes 2111-T No 2040-JJ Auxiliary Building Elevation 335 7.92E-3 No Yes 2063SC Super Compartment for Auxiliary 5.94E-3 Partial Yes Building Elevation 354 The analysts' quantitative analysis determined that Fire Zone 98-J was of low safety significance due to the availability of automatic suppression capability and Fire Zone 99-M had either low to moderate or substantial safety significance due to not having automatic suppression capability.

The analysts determined that Fire Zones 98-J and 99-M had ignition frequencies between 2E-3 and 4E-3 and that both fire zones included multiple redundant trains of safe shut down equipment. The analysts determined the significance of a fire in a particular fire zone would be reduced if multiple redundant trains of equipment were "not" affected or if the fire zone had a relatively low ignition frequency (less than 1E-3). Accordingly, the analysts qualitatively removed fire zones from further consideration if any of the following conditions existed: the ignition frequency was less than 1E-3, the affected area had automatic suppression capability, or multiple redundant trains of safe shutdown equipment were "not" affected by a postulated fire.

The following fire zones required an additional assessment of the affected trains of redundant equipment:

Unit 1 Unit 2 100-N 2100-Z 104-S 2096-M 76-W 2091 -BB 2040-JJ

The analysts qualitatively compared the safety functions affected in Fire Zone 99-M to the safety functions affected by a fire in the above unscreened fire zones.

Unit 1 Fire Zone Unit 2 Fire Zone Safety 99-M 100-N 104-S2100 2096-M 2091-Ba 2040-JI Function WWhiite hite or W White White White White or Ylo Yellow Main 1/111) ill ill 1/1 1/1 1J1 0/1 Feedwater High 2/3 2/3 3/3 w 1/3 1/3 0/3 3/3 Pressure Injection Low 1/2 112 2/2 1/2 0/2 0/3 112 Pressure Injection Service 1/2 1/2 2/2 1/3 0/3 0/3 1/3 Water Diesel 2/2 2/2 2/2 2/2 1/2 112 112 Generator Emergency 4/4 3/4 4/4 0/2 2/2 2/2 1/2 Feedwater Flow -paths _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

1. XIX: Number of failed trains/Number of available trains zll___

I r

I A

A qualitative analysis of similarly affected fire zones in Unit 1 and Unit 2 was completed. The analyst compared the remaining 15 fire zones in Unit 1 which required manual actions for safe shutdown to Calculation 85-E-0053-47, "Individual Plant Examination of External Events/Fire,"

Revision 2, to determine which fire zones were unscreened as part of the FIVE analysis. The following fire zones were unscreened.

Fire Zone Description Ignition Automatic Multiple Frequency Suppression Redundant Trains 197-X Turbine Building (A1/A2 Failed) 7.31 E-3 Partial No 149-E Upper North Electrical Penetration 2.66E-3 Yes Yes 100-N South Switchgear Room 1.13E-3 No Yes 104-S Electrical Equipment Room 3.71 E-3 No Yes 105-T Lower South Electrical Penetration 3.07E-4 Yes No Room 73-W Bowling Alley 1.06E-3 Partial Yes 76-W Compressor Room 3.86E-3 No Yes 34-Y Auxiliary Building Piping Area 5.91 E-4 No Yes The analyst compared the 21 fire zones in Unit 2 which required manual actions for safe shutdown to Calculation 85-E-0053-48, Individual Plant Examination of External Events/Fire," Revision 2, to determine which fire zones were unscreened as part of the FIVE analysis. The following fire zones were unscreened:

Fire Zone Description Ignition Automatic Multiple Frequency Suppression Redundant Trains 2200-MM Turbine Building Al/A2 Failed 1.8E-2 Partial No 2200-MM Turbine Building A1lA2 Not Failed 1.18E-3 Partial No 2100-Z 4160 Volt Switchgear Room A4 1.13E-3 No Yes 2096-M MCC (2B63) 1.25E-3 No Yes 2101-AA 4160 Volt Switchgear Room A3 1.08E-3 No No 2108-S Electrical Equipment Room 368 6.3E-4 No Yes 2109-U EDG Access Corridor 2.01 E-3 Partial Yes 00 Intake Structure 1.78E-3 Partial Yes

Fire Zone Description Ignition Automatic Multiple Frequency Suppression Redundant Trains B3SC Super Compartment for Auxiliary 9.28E-3 No Yes Building (Area of concern is 2091 -BB) 2055SC Super Compartment for Lower 6.62E-4 2084-DD No 2084-DD Yes South Electrical and Piping Penetration Room 2111-T Yes 2111-T No 2040-JJ Auxiliary Building Elevation 335 7.92E-3 No Yes 20635C Super Compartment for Auxiliary 5.94E-3 Partial Yes Building Elevation 354 AiE, thl3-5ee "Ifrom consi.deration if any of the following fire zones conditions existed: the ignition frequency was less than 1E-3, the affected area had automatic suppression capability, or multiple redundant trains of safe shutdown equipment were not affected by a postulated fire.

The following fire zones required an additional assessment of the affected trains of redundant equipment:

Unit 1 Unit 2 100-N 2100-Z 104-S 2096-M 76-W 2091-BB 2040-JJ

The analysts qualitatively compared the safety functions affected in Fire Zone 99-M to the safety functions affected by a fire in the above unscreened fire zones.

Unit 1 Fire Zone Unit 2 Fire Zone Safety Safety

. .99-M 100-N .104.S 6W 4 2100-ZZ 2096-M 2091 -BB 2040-JJ Function White or White -White or ;Green White White White White

_el ~ Yellow , _A;,' _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Main V101i)- 1/1 ' 1 11t11 1- t/1 Feedwater High 2/3. 2/3 3/3 'v,, <-2/3 1/3 1/3 0/3 3/3 Pressure Injection  : _ ,_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _

Low 1/2 1/2 - 2 , ,1/2 , 1/2 0/2 013 1/2 Pressure Injection ___

Service 1/2 1/2 212 1/2 1/3 0/3 0/3 1/3 Water Diesel 2/2 2/2 2/2 1/2 2/2 1/2 1/2 1/2 Generator Emergency 4/4 3/4 4/4 314 0/2 2/2. 2/2 112 Feedwater Flow-paths  : , .,:

1. 1.)V: N~umber of fialed trainsiNjUM~er of avaiiarne Itains I