Text

E-mail from R. Tregoning to R. Bass, Regarding DB Uncertainty Analysis
	ML031110297
Person / Time
Site:	Davis Besse
Issue date:	11/04/2002
From:	Robert Tregoning; Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
To:	Bass R; Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research
References
	FOIA/PA-2003-0018
	Download: ML031110297 (19)
	v • d • e

!-Rr*hrt Tin~nlnnrn

- flR i mr~ertainltv qnqlvcqi-qaq Paqe 1 From:

To:

Date:

Subject:

Robert Tregoning Z6f Richard Bass; WILLIAMSpt~ornl.gov 1 1/4/02 9:1 1AM DB uncertainty analysis Richard/Paul:

I've made a stab at outlining the tasks for the short term uncertainty analyses. Piease look at these and let's talk early afternoon today if possible. I've also attached some relevant information for Jlc values and the cladding flaw distribution which I sent earlier.

Rob Rob Tregoning United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Mail Stop Ti 0 El 0 Two White Flint North 1 1545 Rockville Pike Rockville, MD 20852 Voice: 301-415-6657 Fax:

301-415-5074 E-mail: rlt~nrc.gov

~.RoertTreonig:

B ucerainy analysis Page_

From:

Robert Tregoning, To:

Richard Bass; WILLIAMSpt~ornl.gov Date:

10/29/02 8:59AM

Subject:

DB uncertainty analysis Paul/Richard:

I want to talk to you about this sometime this morning if possible. Please call me at 301-415-6657 before noon.

Rob

i Jeannette Torres - Fwd: DB uncertainty analysis, Page From:

Robert Tregoning,

,-S To:

Jeannette Torres Date:

11/27/02 8:29AM

Subject:

Fwd: DB uncertainty analysis

J Jeannette Torres - DB uncertainty analysis Page From:

Robert Tregoning To:

Richard Bass; WILLIAMSpt@ornl.gov Date:

1 1/4/02 9:11AM

Subject:

DB uncertainty analysis Richard/Paul:

I've made a stab at outlining the tasks for the short term uncertainty analyses. Please look at these and let's talk early afternoon today if possible. I've also attached some relevant information for JIc values and the cladding flaw distribution which I sent earlier.

Rob Rob Tregoning United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Mail Stop Ti 0 El 0 Two White Flint North 11545 Rockville Pike Rockville, MD 20852 Voice: 301-415-6657 Fax:

301-415-5074 E-mail: rlt~nrc.gov

CLAD THICKNESS =

WIDTH OF STRIP CLAD BEAD =

LENGTH OF EXAMINED CLAD BEAD =

LENGTH OF BELTLINE CLAD BEAD =

6.0 20.0 225.0 2690.0 MM MM METERS METERS FLAW DEPTH MM 0.00 0.10 3.00 4.00 6

FLAW DEPTH FRAC - BEAD 0.000 0.017 0.500 0.667 1

NUMBER FLAWS 0.0 1200.0 3.0 1.0 NUMBER FLAWS 1 A 1204.0 1204.0 4.0 1.0 NUMBER FLAWS

>A PER METER OF BEAD EXAMINED CLAD 5.3511 E+00 5.3511 E+00 1.7778E-02 4.4444E-03 5.14286E-05 5.3734E+00 NUMBER FLAWS

>MA PER METER OF BEAD BELTLINE CLAD CLAD 4.4758E-01 4.4758E-01 1.4870E-03 3.7175E-04 1.20 0.05 1.60 0.05 10.00 10.00

COPIED FROM C:\\WPTEXT\\CLAD FLAW.XLS Li AND MABE - SS FOR FLAW TYPES Si, S2 AND S3 - ALL FIRST IDENTIFIED BY NDE AND THEN SIZED BY DESTRUCTI TOTAL LENGTH OF WELD BEAD(CM) 2188.00 CUBIC CM EXAMINED BY DESTRUCTIVE EXAMINATION =

BEAD SIZE (MM) 2.50 TYPE S2 AND S3 DEFECTS ARE TOTAL NUMBER FOR THE 2188 CM OF WELD BEAD (OR 9.5x(2188/57.3) = 363 CMA3 =

THE PNNL WORK EXAMINTED 0.027 MA3 OF CLAD OR A FACTOR OF 74 GREATER THAN THE Li AND MADE WORK TYPE S1 DEFECTS ARE NUMBER PER 9.5 CMA2 OF WELD METAL WHICH HAS ESTIMATED (9.5/363)x2188 = 57.3 CM Ol ORDERED BY SIZE

OF SIZE IN

OF SIZE IN FLAW ID FLAW TYPE SIZE, MM 2188 CM OF BEAD FLAW ID FLAW TYPE SIZE, MM 2188 CM OF BEAD 1

S1 0.508 38.21 1

Si 0.508 38.21 2

S1 0.533 38.21 2

S1 0.533 38.21 3

S1 0.559 38.21 3

S1 0.559 38.21 4

Si 0.559 38.21 5

S1 0.584 38.21 31 S2 0.559 1.00 6

S1 0.610 38.21 5

S1 0.584 38.21 7

S1 0.610 38.21 6

S1 0.610 38.21 8

S1 0.610 38.21 7

S1 0.610 38.21 9

S1 0.610 38.21 8

S1 0.610 38.21 10 S1 0.610 38.21 9

S1 0.610 38.21 11 S1 0.610 38.21 10 S1 0.610 38.21 12 S1 0.635 38.21 11 S1 0.610 38.21 13 S1 0.635 38.21 12 S1 0.635 38.21 14 S1 0.635 38.21 13 S1 0.635 38.21 15 S1 0.660 38.21 14 S1 0.635 38.21 16 S1 0.660 38.21 32 S2 0.635 1.00 17 S1 0.686 38.21 15 S1 0.660 38.21 18 S1 0.711 38.21 16 S1 0.660 38.21 19 S1 0.711 38.21 17 S1 0.686 38.21 20 S1 0.762 38.21 18 S1 0.711 38.21 21 S1 0.787 38.21 19 S1 0.711 38.21 22 S1 0.889 38.21 20 Si 0.762 38.21 23 S1 0.889 38.21 37 S3 0.762 1.00 24 S1 0.889 38.21 38 S3 0.762 1.00 25 Si 0.965 38.21 21 S1 0.787 38.21 26 S1 0.965 38.21 33 S2 0.813 1.00 27 S1 1.016 38.21 22 S1 0.889 38.21 28 S1 1.016 38.21 23 S1 0.889 38.21 29 Si 1.067 38.21 24 S1 0.889 38.21 30 S1 1.575 38.21 39 S3 0.914 1.00 31 S2 0.559 1.00 40 S3 0.914 1.00

32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 S2 0.635 S2 0.813 S2 1.041 S2 S2 S3 S3 S3 S3 S3 S3 S3 S3 S3 S3 1.499 1.499 0.762 0.762 0.914 0.914 1.422 1.422 1.803 1.803 2.413 2.413 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1

1 1

1 25 26 27 28 34 29 41 42 35 36 30 43 44 45 46 Si 0.965 Si 0.965 S1 1.016 Si 1.016 S2 1.041 S1 1.067 S3 1.422 S3 1.422 S2 1.499 S2 1.499 Si 1.575 S3 1.803 S3 1.803 S3 2.413 S3 2.413 38.21 38.21 38.21 38.21 1.00 38.21 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 38.21 1

1 1

1 COPIED FROM C:\\WPTEXnCLAD FLAW.XLS DATE = DECEMBER 28,1999 EQUATIONS 6,7 FROM LI AND MABE - EN82H - FREQUENCIES OF FLAWS PER CUBIC CM ONE METER LENGTH OF WELD BEAD = 0.24x(2.5x0.24)xl00:

14.4 CUBIC CM BEAD SIZE (MM) =

2.5 X, MM 0.100 0.200 0.300 0.400 0.500 0.600 0.700 0.800 0.900 1.000 1.100 1.200 1.300 1.400 1.500 1.600 1.700 1.800 1.900 2.000 X/BEAD N-DEPTH 0.040 5.1882E-01 0.080 2.7668E-01 0.120 1.4755E-01 0.160 7.8685E-02 0.200 4.1962E-02 0.240 2.2378E-02 0.280 1.1934E-02 0.320 6.3640E-03 0.360 3.3938E-03 0.400 1.8099E-03 0.440 9.6518E-04 0.480 5.1471 E-04 0.520 2.7449E-04 0.560 1.4638E-04 0.600 7.8063E-05 0.640 4.1630E-05 0.680 2.2200E-05 0.720 1.1839E-05 0.760 6.3136E-06 0.800 3.3670E-06 I M OF BEAD 7.4710E+00 3.9842E+00 2.1247E+00 1.1 331 E+00 6.0425E-01 3.2224E-01 1.7184E-01 9.1642E-02 4.8871 E-02 2.6062E-02 1.3899E-02 7.4119E-03 3.9526E-03 2.1079E-03 1.1 241 E-03 5.9947E-04 3.1969E-04 1.7048E-04 9.0916E-05 4.8484E-05

IVE EXAMINATION' 9.5 0.000363 MA3)

F WELD BEAD NORMALIZED SIZE 0.203 0.213 0.224 0.224 0.224 0.234 0.244 0.244 0.244 0.244 0.244 0.244 0.254 0.254 0.254 0.254 0.264 0.264 0.274 0.284 0.284 0.305 0.305 0.305 0.315 0.325 0.356 0.356 0.356 0.366 0.366

> SIZE PER M OF BEAD 5.138E+01 4.963E+01 4.788E+01 4.614E+01 4.609E+01 4.434E+01 4.260E+01 4.085E+01 3.911 E+01 3.736E+01 3.561 E+01 3.387E+01 3.212E+01 3.037E+01 2.863E+01 2.858E+01 2.684E+01 2.509E+01 2.334E+01 2.160E+01 1.985E+01 1.810E+01 1.806E+01 1.801E+01 1.627E+01 1.622E+01 1.447E+01 1.273E+01 1.098E+01 1.094E+01 1.089E+01

0.386 0.386 0.406 0.406 0.416 0.427 0.569 0.569 0.600 0.600 0.630 0.721 0.721 0.965 0.965 9.143E+00 7.397E+00 5.650E+00 3.904E+00 3.858E+00 2.112E+00 2.066E+00 2.021 E+00 1.975E+00 1.929E+00 1.828E-01 1.3711 E-01 9.1408E-02 4.5704E-02 O.OOOOE+00

TABLE I SAW SURFACE FLAWS - WITH AND WIO PT NO PT SURF-I FLAWS PER M OF BEAD DEPTH > A WITH PT SURF-I FLAWS PER M OF BEAD DEPTH > A DEPTH MM DEPTH FRACTION OF BEAD N

1 1.1 0.208 2.743E-04 5.486E-06 2

3.4 0.623 2.486E-04 4.971E-06 3

5.7 1.038 5.714E-06 1.143E-07 4

8.0 1.453 0.000E+00 0.OOOE+00 5

10.3 1.869 0.000E+00 0.OOOE+00 6

12.6 2.284 0.000E+00 0.000E+00 7

14.8 2.699 0.000E+00 0.000E+00 8

17.1 3.114 0.OOOE+00 0.000E+00 9

19.4 3.530 0.OOOE+00 0.000E+00 10 21.7 3.945 0.OOOE+00 0.OOOE+00 TABLE 2 SAW AND SMAW BURIED FLAWS SUBMERGED ARC BURIED FLAW FLAWS PER M OF BEAD DEPTH > A SHIELDED METAL ARC BURIED FLAW FLAWS PER M OF BEAD DEPTH > A I

'I DEPTH MM DEPTH FRACTION OF BEAD N

1 1.1 0.208 1.999E-03 9.736E-03 2

3.4 0.623 1.760E-03 8.074E-03 3

5.7 1.038 5.143E-05 1.369E-03 4

8.0 1.453 5.714E-06 3.286E-05 5

10.3 1.869 0.OOOE+00 0.000E+00 6

12.6 2.284 0.OOOE+00 0.OOOE+00 7

14.8 2.699 0.OOOE+00 0.OOOE+00 8

17.1 3.114 0.000E+00 0.OOOE+00 9

19.4 3.530 0.OOOE+00 0.0OOE+00 10 21.7 3.945 0.OOOE+00 0.000E+00

0.80 100.00 DATE - FEBRUARY 3,1999 1.00 100.00 FROM FILE - C:\\RRA\\TFLAW62c.XLS INPUT = 16.1 OUTPUT = 20 PVRUF VESSEL WITH SINGLE V WELD BY SUBMMERGED ARC PROCESS; CLAD BY SUB UNIFORM THICKNESS WELD DATA ON FILE C:\\RRA\\WELD.20 AND TABLE.20A X-RAY BEFORE CLADDING NO PT OF CLAD SURFACE CLAD LAYER THICKNESS 5.50 MM TOTAL CLAD WIDTH 52.08 MM

CLAD LAYERS 2.0

WELD RUNS 14.0 VOL OF CLAD 2.8644E-04 MA3 TOTAL LENGTH OF BEAD 14.00 M

TOTAL WALL INCLUDING CLAD (MM) =

2.2838E+02 SURF-I CLAD CLAD MEAN DEPTH MEAN DEPTH FLAWSIMETER FLAWS/METER FLAWS/MA3 N

MM

% BEAD SURFI DEPTH > A CLAD DEPTH > A DEPTH > A 1

1.1 0.2076 3.60W0E-04 3.8400E-03 3.3400E-03 2.7980E-02 9.7681 E+01 2

3.4 0.6229 3.4000E-03 3.4800E-03 2.3920E-02 2.4640E-02 8.6021E+01 3

5.7 1.0381 8.0000E-05 8.0000E-05 6.4000E-04 7.2000E-04 2.5136E+00 4

8.0 1.4533 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 8.0000E-05 8.0000E-05 2.7929E-01 5

10.3 1.8686 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 6

12.6 2.2838 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+0 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 7

14.8 2.6990 O.OOOOE+0O 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.00W0E+00 0.OOOOE+00 8

17.1 3.1143 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 9

19.4 3.5295 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 10 21.7 3.9447 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 11 24.0 4.3600 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 12 26.3 4.7752 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 13 28.5 5.1905 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 14 30.8 5.6057 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 15 33.1 6.0209 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 16 35.4 6.4362 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 17 37.7 6.8514 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 18 40.0 7.2666 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+0W 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 19 42.3 7.6819 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+WO 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 20 44.5 8.0971 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 21 46.8 8.5123 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 22 49.1 8.9276 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 23 51.4 9.3428 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 24 53.7 9.7581 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 25 56.0 10.1733 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 26 58.2 10.5885 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 27 60.5 11.0038 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 28 62.8 11.4190 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 29 65.1 11.8342 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 30 67.4 12.2495 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 31 69.7 12.6647 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 32 71.9 13.0799 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 33 74.2 13.4952 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 34 76.5 13.9104 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 35 78.8 14.3257 0.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+00

36 81.1 14.7409 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 37 83.4 15.1561 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 38 85.6 15.5714 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+0O0 O.OOOOE+00 39 87.9 15.9866 O.OOOOE+00 O.0OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 40 90.2 16.4018 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 41 92.5 16.8171 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 42 94.8 17.2323 O.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 43 97.1 17.6475 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 44 99.3 18.0628 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 45 101.6 18.4780 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 46 103.9 18.8933 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 47 106.2 19.3085 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 48 108.5 19.7237 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 49 110.8 20.1390 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 50 113.0 20.5542 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 51 115.3 20.9694 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 52 117.6 21.3847 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 53 119.9 21.7999 O.OOO0E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.00002+00 0.OOOOE+00 54 122.2 22.2151 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 55 124.5 22.6304 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 56 126.8 23.0456 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 57 129.0 23.4609 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 58 131.3 23.8761 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 59 133.6 24.2913 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 60 135.9 24.7066 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 61 138.2 25.1218 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 62 140.5 25.5370 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 63 142.7 25.9523 O.OOWE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 64 145.0 26.3675 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 65 147.3 26.7827 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 66 149.6 27.1980 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 67 151.9 27.6132 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 68 154.2 28.0285 O.0OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 69 156.4 28.4437 O.0OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 70 158.7 28.8589 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 71 161.0 29.2742 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.0OOOE+00 72 163.3 29.6894 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 73 165.6 30.1046 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.O00OE+00 74 167.9 30.5199 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 75 170.1 30.9351 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 76 172.4 31.3503 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.0OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 77 174.7 31.7656 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.2OOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 78 177.0 32.1808 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 79 179.3 32.5961 O.0OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 80 181.6 33.0113 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.O0OE+00 O.OOOOE+00 81 183.8 33.4265 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 82 186.1 33.8418 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 83 188.4 34.2570 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 84 190.7 34.6722 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 85 193.0 35.0875 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.O00E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 86 195.3 35.5027 O.OOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 87 197.5 35.9179 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.0OOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 88 199.8 36.3332 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 89 202.1 36.7484 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 90 204.4 37.1637 O.OOOOE+00 O.0OOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 91 206.7 37.5789 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 92 209.0 37.9941 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 93 211.3 38.4094 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 94 213.5 38.8246 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00

95 215.8 39.2398 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 96 218.1 39.6551 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 97 220.4 40.0703 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.OOOOE+00 98 222.7 40.4855 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 99 225.0 40.9008 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.OOOOE+O0 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 100 227.2 41.3160 O.OOOOE+00 O.OO0OE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00

IMERGED ARC PROCESS NO PT CLAD SURF-I FLAWS FLAWS M OFBEAD M OFBEAD DEPTH>A DEPTH>A 1.9986E-03 2.7429E-04 1.7600E-03 2.4857E-04 5.1429E-05 5.7143E-06 5.7143E-06 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOO0E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+OO 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 WITH PT SURF-I FLAWS M OF BEAD DEPTH A 5.4857E-06 4.9714E-06 1.1429E-07 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.O0OOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+OO 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00 0.0000E+00 O.OOOOE+00

O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.DOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOpOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.WOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.WOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+W0 O.OOOOE+00 O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.WOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+oo O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO

O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO O.OOOOE+OO

Short Term Uncertainty Analysis Estimation of Failure Probability of As-Found Cavity

1. Develop CDF for flaw depth from data (NRC Complete).

2. Develop curve fit for flaw depth CDF (ORNL TBD).

3. Develop pressure and uncertainty as a function of flaw depth for collapse model

a. Develop Uncertainty Distribution as a function of a/t (ORNL TBD).

b. Develop and utilize 2L = 2.0" curve for analysis (ORNL Complete).

c. Develop curve fit relating pressure to a/t from previous FEM results.(ORNL TBD).

4. Develop pressure and uncertainty curve as a function of flaw depth for J1, model.

a. Gather J1, data to use (NRC Complete).

b. Determine J1c at 600F and curve fit distribution (ORNL TBD).

c. Develop and utilize 2L = 2.0" curve for analysis (ORNL Complete).

d. Develop best estimate curve fit as a function of a/t from previous FEM results. (ORNL TDB).

e. Develop uncertainty distribution as a function of a/t.

5. Create Monte Carlo Program (ORNL TBD).

a. Pick a/t from CDF using random number generator.

b. Determine median failure pressure for collapse and J1c models.

c. Use random number generator to sample collapse and J1c model uncertainty distributions for chosen a/t.

d. Add J1, and collapse model uncertainties to respective pressures.

e. Repeat analysis 50,000? times.

f.

Plot collapse and JI, models CDF functions.

JIC Distribution Values.

Specimen Test Temp Jic ID (C) kJ/mA" Al 5D A13C H1 H10 AA04 AA02 A1 3 A1 5 H15 H16 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 288 Reference 2

78 NUREG/CR-5511 68 NUREG/CR-5511 79 NUREG/CR-5511 85 NUREG/CR-6363 93 NUREGICR-6363 59 NUREGICR-6363 91 NUREG/CR-6363 77 NUREG/CR-6363 111 NUREG/CR-6363 110 NUREG/CR-6363 Remarks Three-Wire Cladding Study Three-Wire Cladding Study Three-Wire Cladding Study Aged 3-wire cladding @ 288C for 1605 hours0.0186 days 0.446 hours 0.00265 weeks 6.107025e-4 months Aged 3-wire cladding @ 288C for 1605 hours0.0186 days 0.446 hours 0.00265 weeks 6.107025e-4 months Aged 3-wire cladding @ 288C for 1605 hours0.0186 days 0.446 hours 0.00265 weeks 6.107025e-4 months Aged 3-wire cladding @ 288C for 20,000 hours0 days 0 hours 0 weeks 0 months Aged 3-wire cladding @ 288C for 20,000 hours0 days 0 hours 0 weeks 0 months Aged 3-wire cladding @ 343C for 20,000 hours0 days 0 hours 0 weeks 0 months Aged 3-wire cladding @ 343C for 20,000 hours0 days 0 hours 0 weeks 0 months Convert to equivalent values at 314C using Jic vs. temperature relationship used in earlier work.

The delta ferrite content of material is below 10% which should preclude thermal aging effects based on earlier ANL work.

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