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Enclosure 4 - Kld TR-486, Revision 5, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates Expanded EPZ Boundary EP-100 Appendix 5
	ML14363A373
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Site:	Summer
Issue date:	04/30/2012
From:	; KLD Engineering, PC
To:	; Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation, South Carolina Electric & Gas Co
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ML14363A422	List: ML14363A373; ML14363A376; RC-14-0191, Enclosure 4 - Kld TR-486, Revision 5, Development of Evacuation Time Estimates Expanded EPZ Boundary EP-100 Appendix 5; RC-14-0191, Enclosure 5 - Alert and Notification System Design Report December 2014; RC-14-0191, LAR-14-05497 Request for NRC Approval of Radiation Emergency Plan Change;
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	LAR-14-05497, RC-14-0191 KLD TR-486, Rev. 5
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April,2012FinalReport,Rev.5KLDTR-486 VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesExpandedEPZBoundaryEP100Appendix5WorkperformedforSouthCarolinaElectricandGas,by:KLDEngineering,P.C.43CorporateDriveHauppauge,NY11788mailto:kweinisch@kldcompanies.com EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableofContents1INTRODUCTION..................................................................................................................................111.1OverviewoftheETEProcess......................................................................................................121.2TheVirgilC.SummerNuclearStation(VCSNS)Location...........................................................141.3PreliminaryActivities.................................................................................................................171.4ComparisonwithPriorETEStudy............................................................................................1102STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONS.............................................................................................212.1DataEstimates...........................................................................................................................212.2StudyMethodology....................................................................................................................222.3StudyAssumptions.....................................................................................................................253DEMANDESTIMATION.......................................................................................................................313.1PermanentResidents.................................................................................................................323.2ShadowPopulation....................................................................................................................393.3TransientPopulation..................................................................................................................393.4Employees...............................................................................................................................

.3133.5MedicalFacilities......................................................................................................................3173.6TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulation..............................................................3173.7SpecialEvents...........................................................................................................................3173.8SummaryofDemand...............................................................................................................3184ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITY................................................................................................414.1CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersections..............................................................424.2CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighway........................................................................444.3ApplicationtotheVCSNSStudyArea........................................................................................464.3.1TwoLaneRoads.................................................................................................................464.3.2MultiLaneHighway...........................................................................................................464.3.3Freeways............................................................................................................................474.3.4Intersections......................................................................................................................484.4SimulationandCapacityEstimation..........................................................................................485ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIME..........................................................................................515.1Background...............................................................................................................................

.515.2FundamentalConsiderations.....................................................................................................535.3EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5...................................................575.4CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistribution....................................................................5125.4.1StatisticalOutliers............................................................................................................5135.4.2StagedEvacuationTripGeneration.................................................................................5165.4.3TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreas.................................................5176DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOS.....................................................................617GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)..........................................................717.1VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation.........................................................................717.2StagedEvacuation......................................................................................................................717.3PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuation.....................................................................727.4EvacuationRates........................................................................................................................737.5EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)Results....................................................................................737.6StagedEvacuationResults.........................................................................................................75 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.57.7GuidanceonUsingETETables...................................................................................................758TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES.................................818.1TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimate............................................................................828.2SchoolPopulation-TransitDemand.........................................................................................858.3SpecialFacilityDemand.............................................................................................................858.4EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeople.......................................................868.5SpecialNeedsPopulation.........................................................................................................8129TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGY...................................................................................................9110EVACUATIONROUTES......................................................................................................................10111SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONS...............................................................................11112CONFIRMATIONTIME......................................................................................................................12113Recommendations...........................................................................................................................131ListofAppendicesAGLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMS..................................................................................A1B.DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODEL.........................................................B1C.DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODEL...............................................................................................C1D.DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDURE..............................................................................D1E.SPECIALFACILITYDATA......................................................................................................................E1F.TELEPHONESURVEY...........................................................................................................................F1F.1INTRODUCTION..........................................................................................................................F1F.2SURVEYINSTRUMENTANDSAMPLINGPLAN............................................................................F2F.3SURVEYRESULTS........................................................................................................................F3F.3.1HouseholdDemographicResults...........................................................................................F4F.3.2EvacuationResponse.............................................................................................................F8F.3.3TimeDistributionResults.......................................................................................................F9F.4CONCLUSIONS..........................................................................................................................F11G.TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLAN..........................................................................................................G1G.1TrafficControlPoints................................................................................................................G1G.2AccessControlPoints................................................................................................................G1H.EVACUATIONREGIONS.....................................................................................................................H1J.REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEM.....................................J1K.EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORK..................................................................................................K1PROTECTIVEACTIONZONEBOUNDARIES.........................................................................................L1L.M.EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIES.................................................................................................M1M.1EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimes............................................................................M1M.2EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocate.................M2M.3EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulation.........................................................................M3N.ETECRITERIACHECKLIST...................................................................................................................N1Note:AppendixIintentionallyskipped EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationiiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5ListofFiguresFigure11.VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationSiteLocation.......................................................................16Figure12.VCSNSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork......................................................................................112Figure21.ShadowEvacuationMethodology...........................................................................................24Figure31.VCSNSEPZ...............................................................................................................................

.34Figure32.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector.............................................................................37Figure33.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector.................................................................................38Figure34.TransientPopulationbySector.............................................................................................311Figure35.TransientVehiclesbySector.................................................................................................312Figure36.EmployeePopulationbySector............................................................................................315Figure37.EmployeeVehiclesbySector................................................................................................316Figure41.FundamentalDiagrams.........................................................................................................410Figure51.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTrip..............................................................56Figure52.EvacuationMobilizationActivities........................................................................................511Figure53.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution......................................................514Figure54.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions.......................................................................518Figure55.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe25MileRegion..............................................................................................................................................521Figure61.VCSNSEPZProtectiveActionZones........................................................................................67Figure71.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology.....................................................................................716Figure72.VCSNSSiteShadowEvacuationRegion................................................................................718Figure73.CongestionPatternsat1:15aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate................................................720Figure74.CongestionPatternsat2:15aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate................................................722Figure75.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03......................................................723Figure76.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR03......................................................723Figure77.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03......................................................724Figure78.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR03......................................................724Figure79.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03......................................................725Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR03....................................................725Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03....................................................726Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR03....................................................726Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03....................................................727Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR03..................................................727Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03..................................................728Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR03..................................................728Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03..................................................729Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR03..................................................729Figure81.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperations......................................................................817Figure82.TransitDependentBusRoutes.............................................................................................819Figure101.GeneralPopulationReceptionCenters..............................................................................103Figure102.EvacuationRouteMap........................................................................................................105FigureB1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterface........................................................................B5FigureC1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork...........................................................................................C4FigureC2.FundamentalDiagrams...........................................................................................................C6FigureC3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht1>0...............................................................................C6FigureC4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC3)....................................................C14 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationivKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureD1.FlowDiagramofActivities.....................................................................................................D5FigureE1.SchoolswithintheEPZ............................................................................................................E6FigureE2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E9FigureE3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ...........................................................................................E12FigureE4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ........................................................................................E15FigureF1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ.......................................................................................................F4FigureF2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability................................................................................................F5FigureF3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholds......................................................................F6FigureF4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds....................................................................F6FigureF5.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ.....................................................................................F7FigureF6.ModesofTravelintheEPZ.....................................................................................................F8FigureF7.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuation...............................................................................F9FigureF8.TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork/School................................................................................F10FigureF9.WorktoHomeTravelTime...................................................................................................F10FigureF10.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuation................................................................................F11FigureG1.VCSNSTrafficControlPoints.................................................................................................G2FigureH1.RegionR01.............................................................................................................................H4FigureH2.RegionR02.............................................................................................................................H5FigureH3.RegionR03.............................................................................................................................H6FigureH4.RegionR04.............................................................................................................................H7FigureH5.RegionR05.............................................................................................................................H8FigureH6.RegionR06.............................................................................................................................H9FigureH7.RegionR07...........................................................................................................................H10FigureH8.RegionR08...........................................................................................................................H11FigureH9.RegionR09...........................................................................................................................H12FigureH10.RegionR10.........................................................................................................................H13FigureH11.RegionR11.........................................................................................................................H14FigureH12.RegionR12.........................................................................................................................H15FigureH13.RegionR13.........................................................................................................................H16FigureH14.RegionR14.........................................................................................................................H17FigureH15.RegionR15.........................................................................................................................H18FigureH16.RegionR16.........................................................................................................................H19FigureH17.RegionR17.........................................................................................................................H20FigureH18.RegionR18.........................................................................................................................H21FigureH19.RegionR19.........................................................................................................................H22FigureH20.RegionR20.........................................................................................................................H23FigureH21.RegionR21.........................................................................................................................H24FigureH22.RegionR22.........................................................................................................................H25FigureH23.RegionR23.........................................................................................................................H26FigureH24.RegionR24.........................................................................................................................H27FigureH25.RegionR25.........................................................................................................................H28FigureH26.RegionR26.........................................................................................................................H29FigureH27.RegionR27.........................................................................................................................H30FigureH28.RegionR28.........................................................................................................................H31FigureH29.RegionR29.........................................................................................................................H32FigureH30.RegionR30.........................................................................................................................H33FigureJ1.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)..............J9 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationvKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ2.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)..............................J10FigureJ3.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3).............J11FigureJ4.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)..............................J12FigureJ5.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5).....................................................................................................................J13FigureJ6.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)...............J14FigureJ7.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)................................J15FigureJ8.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)...................................J16FigureJ9.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)...............J17FigureJ10.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)............................J18FigureJ11.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11)..............................J19FigureJ12.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)...................................................................................................................J20FigureJ13.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,Construction(Scenario13)......................................................................................................................J21FigureJ14.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)................................................................................................................J22FigureK1.OverviewofLinkNodeAnalysis..............................................................................................K2FigureK2.Grid1......................................................................................................................................K3FigureK3.Grid2......................................................................................................................................K4FigureK4.Grid3......................................................................................................................................K5FigureK5.Grid4......................................................................................................................................K6FigureK6.Grid5......................................................................................................................................K7FigureK7.Grid6......................................................................................................................................K8FigureK8.Grid7......................................................................................................................................K9FigureK9.Grid8....................................................................................................................................K10FigureK10.Grid9..................................................................................................................................K11FigureK11.Grid10...............................................................................................................................

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.K51 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationviiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5ListofTablesTable12.HighwayCharacteristics...........................................................................................................17Table13.ETEStudyComparisons..........................................................................................................113Table21.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................23Table22.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeather.................................................................................27Table31.EPZPermanentResidentPopulation.......................................................................................35Table32.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyPAZ.............................................................36Table33.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySector.............................................................................39Table34.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehicles.....................................................................310Table35.SummaryofNonEPZEmployeesandEmployeeVehicles.....................................................314Table36.VCSNSSiteExternalTraffic.....................................................................................................318Table37.SummaryofPopulationDemand...........................................................................................319Table38.SummaryofVehicleDemand.................................................................................................320Table52.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublic...............................................................................57Table53.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWork...................................................58Table54.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHome..................................................................59Table55.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuate.....................................................510Table56.MappingDistributionstoEvents............................................................................................512Table57.DescriptionoftheDistributions.............................................................................................512Table58.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulation..............................................................519Table59.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationinthe25MileRegionforaStagedEvacuation....................................................................................................................................520Table61.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions...........................................................................................63Table62.EvacuationScenarioDefinitions...............................................................................................68Table63.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenarios............................................69Table64.VehicleEstimatesbyScenario................................................................................................610Table71.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulation............................78Table72.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulation........................710Table73.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion............................712Table74.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegion..........................713Table75.DescriptionofEvacuationRegions.........................................................................................714Table81.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates..............................................................................820Table82.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimates...................................................................................821Table83.SchoolReceptionCenters......................................................................................................823Table84.SpecialFacilityTransitDemand.............................................................................................824Table85.SummaryofTransportationResources..................................................................................825Table86.BusRouteDescriptions..........................................................................................................826Table87.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather..............................................................827Table88SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-Rain...............................................................................829Table89SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-Ice.................................................................................830Table810SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutes........................................................................832Table811.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeather........................................833Table812.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRain.........................................................834Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesIce...........................................................835Table121.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuation..............122TableA1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms....................................................................................A1 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationviiiKLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableC1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVII........................................................C2TableC2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModel...........................................................................C3TableC3.Glossary....................................................................................................................................C7TableE1.SchoolswithintheEPZ.............................................................................................................E2TableE2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ..............................................................................................E7TableE3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E10TableE4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ..........................................................................................E13TableE5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZ............................................................................................E16TableE6.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZ......................................................................................E16TableF1.VCSNSTelephoneSurveySamplingPlan..................................................................................F2TableH1.PercentofPAZPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegion.........................................................H2TableJ1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersections........................................J2TableJ2.SampleSimulationModelInput...............................................................................................J4TableJ3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)...........................J5TableJ4.AverageEvacuationRouteTravelTime(min)forRegionR03,Scenario1...............................J6TableJ5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1.........................J7TableK1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristics......................................................................K52TableK2.NodesintheLinkNodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlled.........................................K114TableM1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudy.......................................M1TableM2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudy....................................................M2TableM3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChange.................................................................................M4TableN1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklist.................................................................................................N1

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5EXECUTIVESUMMARYThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheVirgilC.SummerNuclearStation(VCSNS)sitelocatedinFairfieldCounty,SouthCarolinafortheexpandedemergencyplanningzone.PopulationestimateshavebeenadjustedtoincludetheexpandedareaofProtectiveActionZoneD2.ETEarepartoftherequiredplanningbasisandprovideVCSNSandstateandlocalgovernmentswithsitespecificinformationneededforProtectiveActionDecisions(PAD).Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentalagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare: CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR7002,November2011. CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980. DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR6863,January2005.OverviewofProjectActivitiesThisprojectbeganinMay,2011andextendedoveraperiodof8months.Themajoractivitiesperformedarebrieflydescribedinchronologicalsequence: Attended"kickoff"meetingswithSouthCarolinaElectric&Gaspersonnelandemergencymanagementpersonnelrepresentingstateandlocalgovernments. AccessedU.S.CensusBureaudatafilesfortheyear2010.StudiedGeographicalInformationSystems(GIS)mapsoftheareainthevicinityoftheVCSNS,thenconductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaynetwork. SynthesizedthisinformationtocreateananalysisnetworkrepresentingthehighwaysystemtopologyandcapacitieswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),plusaShadowRegioncoveringtheregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant. Reviewedtheresultsofatelephonesurvey(conductedinDecember2006)ofresidentswithintheEPZtogatherfocuseddataneededforthisETEstudythatwerenotcontainedwithinthecensusdatabase.Thesurveyinstrumentusedforthesurveywasreviewedandmodifiedbythelicenseeandoffsiteresponseorganization(ORO)personnelpriortothesurvey. Datacollectionforms(providedtotheOROsatthekickoffmeeting)werereturnedwithdatapertainingtoemployment,transients,andspecialfacilitiesineachcounty.Telephonecallstospecificfacilitiessupplementedthedataprovided.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5 Thetrafficdemandandtripgenerationratesofevacuatingvehicleswereestimatedfromthegathereddata.Thetripgenerationratesreflectedtheestimatedmobilizationtime(i.e.,thetimerequiredbyevacueestopreparefortheevacuationtrip)computedusingtheresultsofthetelephonesurveyofEPZresidents. Followingfederalguidelines,theEPZissubdividedinto13ProtectiveActionZones(PAZ).ThesePAZsarethengroupedwithincircularareasor"keyhole"configurations(circlesplusradialsectors)thatdefine30EvacuationRegions ThetimevaryingexternalcircumstancesarerepresentedasEvacuationScenarios,eachdescribedintermsofthefollowingfactors:(1)Season(Summer,Winter);(2)DayofWeek(Midweek,Weekend);(3)TimeofDay(Midday,Evening);and(4)Weather(Good,Rain,Ice).Onespecialscenario,constructionoftheproposedUnits2and3atVCSNSin2014combinedwithaplannedoutageatUnit1,wasconsidered.AroadwayimpactscenariowasconsideredwhereinasinglelanewasclosedoneastboundInterstate26inLexingtonCountyforthedurationoftheevacuation. Stagedevacuationwasconsideredforthoseregionswherethe2mileradiusandsectorsdownwindto5mileswereevacuated. AsperNUREG/CR7002,theplanningbasisforthecalculationofETEis: ArapidlyescalatingaccidentatVCSNSthatquicklyattainsthestatusofGeneralEmergencysuchthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisvirtuallycoincidentwiththesirenalert,andnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented. Whileanunlikelyaccidentscenario,thisplanningbasiswillyieldETE,measuredastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntiltheastatedpercentageofthepopulationexitstheimpactedRegion,thatrepresent"upperbound"estimates.Thisconservativeplanningbasisisapplicableforallinitiatingevents. Iftheemergencyoccurswhileschoolsareinsession,theETEstudyassumesthatthechildrenwillbeevacuatedbybusdirectlytoreceptioncenterslocatedoutsidetheEPZ.Parents,relatives,andneighborsareadvisedtonotpickuptheirchildrenatschoolpriortothearrivalofthebusesdispatchedforthatpurpose.TheETEforschoolchildrenarecalculatedseparately. Evacueeswhodonothaveaccesstoaprivatevehiclewilleitherridesharewithrelatives,friendsorneighbors,orbeevacuatedbybusesprovidedasspecifiedinthecountyevacuationplans.Thoseinspecialfacilitieswillbeevacuatedbybus,van,orambulance,asrequired.SeparateETEarecalculatedforthetransitdependentevacuees,forhomeboundspecialneedspopulation,andforthoseevacuatedfromspecialfacilities.ComputationofETEAtotalof420ETEwerecomputedfortheevacuationofthegeneralpublic.EachETEquantifiestheaggregateevacuationtimeestimatedforthepopulationwithinoneofthe30EvacuationRegionstoevacuatefromthatRegion,underthecircumstancesdefinedforoneofthe14 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5EvacuationScenarios(30x14=420).SeparateETEarecalculatedfortransitdependentevacuees,includingschoolchildrenforapplicablescenarios.ExceptforRegionR03,whichistheevacuationoftheentireEPZ,onlyaportionofthepeoplewithintheEPZwouldbeadvisedtoevacuate.Thatis,theAdvisorytoEvacuateappliesonlytothosepeopleoccupyingthespecifiedimpactedregion.Itisassumedthat100percentofthepeoplewithintheimpactedregionwillevacuateinresponsetothisAdvisory.ThepeopleoccupyingtheremainderoftheEPZoutsidetheimpactedregionmaybeadvisedtotakeshelter.ThecomputationofETEassumesthat20%ofthepopulationwithintheEPZbutoutsidetheimpactedregionwillelectto"voluntarily"evacuate.Inaddition,20%ofthepopulationintheShadowRegionwillalsoelecttoevacuate.Thesevoluntaryevacueescouldimpedethosewhoareevacuatingfromwithintheimpactedregion.TheimpedancethatcouldbecausedbyvoluntaryevacueesisconsideredinthecomputationofETEfortheimpactedregion.Stagedevacuationisconsideredwhereinthosepeoplewithinthe2mileradiusevacuateimmediately,whilethosebeyond2miles,butwithintheEPZ,shelterinplace.Once90%ofthe2mileradiusisevacuated,thosepeoplebetween2and5milesbegintoevacuate.Asperfederalguidance,20%ofpeoplebeyond2mileswillevacuateeventhoughtheyareadvisedtoshelterinplace.Thecomputationalprocedureisoutlinedasfollows: Alinknoderepresentationofthehighwaynetworkiscoded.Eachlinkrepresentsaunidirectionallengthofhighway;eachnodeusuallyrepresentsanintersectionormergepoint.Thecapacityofeachlinkisestimatedbasedonthefieldsurveyobservationsandonestablishedtrafficengineeringprocedures. Theevacuationtripsaregeneratedatlocationscalled"zonalcentroids"locatedwithintheEPZandShadowRegion.Thetripgenerationratesvaryovertimereflectingthemobilizationprocess,andfromonelocation(centroid)toanotherdependingonpopulationdensityandonwhetheracentroidiswithin,oroutside,theimpactedarea. Theevacuationmodelcomputestheroutingpatternsforevacuatingvehiclesthatarecompliantwithfederalguidelines(outboundrelativetothelocationoftheplant),thensimulatethetrafficflowmovementsoverspaceandtime.Thissimulationprocessestimatestheratethattrafficflowexitstheimpactedregion.TheETEstatisticsprovidetheelapsedtimesfor90percentand100percent,respectively,ofthepopulationwithintheimpactedregion,toevacuatefromwithintheimpactedregion.Thesestatisticsarepresentedintabularandgraphicalformats.The90thpercentileETEhasbeenidentifiedasthevaluethatshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisionsbecausethe100thpercentileETEareprolongedbythoserelativelyfewpeoplewhotakelongertomobilize.Thisisreferredtoasthe"evacuationtail"inSection4.0ofNUREG/CR7002.Theuseofapublicoutreach(information)programtoemphasizetheneedforevacueestominimizethetimeneededtopreparetoevacuate(securethehome,assembleneededclothes,medicines,etc.)shouldalsobeconsidered.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TrafficManagementThisstudyreferencesthecomprehensivetrafficmanagementplanprovidedbyFairfieldLexington,Newberry,andRichlandCountiesEmergencyOperationsPlans,andtheSouthCarolinaOperationalRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlan.SelectedResultsAcompilationofselectedinformationispresentedonthefollowingpagesintheformofFiguresandTablesextractedfromthebodyofthereport;thesearedescribedbelow. Figure61displaysamapoftheVCSNSEPZshowingthelayoutofthe13PAZsthatcomprise,inaggregate,theEPZ. Table31presentstheestimatesofpermanentresidentpopulationineachPAZbasedonthe2010Censusdata. Table61defineseachofthe30EvacuationRegionsintermsoftheirrespectivegroupsofPAZ. Table62liststheEvacuationScenarios. Tables71and72arecompilationsofETE.Thesedataarethetimesneededtocleartheindicatedregionsof90and100percentofthepopulationoccupyingtheseregions,respectively.ThesecomputedETEincludeconsiderationofmobilizationtimeandofestimatedvoluntaryevacuationsfromotherregionswithintheEPZandfromtheShadowRegion.Thesetablesincluderesultsforstagedevacuation. Tables73andTable74presentsclearancetimesforthe2mileregionforunstagedandstagedevacuationsforthe90thand100thpercentiles,respectively. Table87presentsETEfortheschoolchildreningoodweather. Table811presentsETEforthetransitdependentpopulationingoodweather. FigureH7presentsanexampleofanEvacuationRegion(RegionR07)tobeevacuatedunderthecircumstancesdefinedinTable61.MapsofallregionsareprovidedinAppendixH.Conclusions GeneralpopulationETEwerecomputedfor420uniquecases-acombinationof30uniqueEvacuationRegionsand14uniqueEvacuationScenarios.Tables71and72documenttheseETEforthe90thand100thpercentilesforbotharegularandstagedevacuationrespectively.TheseETErangefrom1:35(hr:min)to2:25atthe90thpercentile. InspectionofTable71and72indicatesthattheETEforthe100thpercentilearesignificantlylongerthanthoseforthe90thpercentile.Thisistheresultofthelongtailoftheevacuationcurvecausedbythoseevacueeswhotakelongertomobilize.SeeFigures75through718. InspectionofTables73and74indicatesthatastagedevacuationprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregionandunnecessarilydelaystheevacuationof EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5thosebeyond2miles(compareRegionsR02,R04throughR11withRegionsR22throughR30,respectively,inTables71and72).SeeSection7.6foradditionaldiscussion ComparisonofScenarios6and13inTables71and72indicatesthatthespecialevent-constructionoftheproposedUnits2and3atVCSNSin2014combinedwithanoutageatUnit1-doesnotmateriallyimpacttheevacuationtimefortheVCSNSEPZ. SeparateETEwerecomputedforschools,medicalfacilities,transitdependentpersons,andhomeboundspecialneedspersons.TheaveragesinglewaveETEforschoolsarewithinasimilarrangeasthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90thpercentile,whiletheaverageETEfortransitdependentpersonsexceedthegeneralpopulationETEatthe90thpercentile.SeeSection8. ThegeneralpopulationETEatthe100thpercentilecloselyparallelthetripgenerationtime-furtherevidenceofthelongevacuationtail.SeeTableM1. ThegeneralpopulationETEisrelativelyinsensitive(triplingtheshadowevacuationpercentageonlyincreases90thpercentileETEby15minutes)tothevoluntaryevacuationofvehiclesintheShadowRegion.SeeTableM2.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure61.VCSNSEPZProtectiveActionZones EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table31.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationPAZ2000CensusPopulation2010CensusPopulationA0238220A1372395A2631618B1310341B2414382C1420411C21,4511,515D11,7652,214D22,5623,908E1546536E21,8271,997F1228202F21,3271,436TOTAL12,09114,175EPZPopulationGrowth:17%

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table61.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R012MileRingXR025MileRingXXXXXXR03FullEPZXXXXXXXXXXXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R04S,SSWXXXR05SW,WSWXXXXR06WXXXR07WNW,NWXXR08NNW,NXXXR09NNE,NEXXR10ENE,EXXXR11ESE,SE,SSEXXXEvacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:ProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R12SXXXXXXXR13SSW,SWXXXXXXXXR14WSW,WXXXXXXXXR15WNW,NWXXXXXXXXR16NNWXXXXXXXXXR17N,NNEXXXXXXXXXR18NEXXXXXXXXXR19ENE,EXXXXXXXXR20ESEXXXXXXXR21SE,SSEXXXXXXXX EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table61.(Continuedfromabove)StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R225MileRingXXXXXXR23S,SSWXXXR24SW,WSWXXXXR25WXXXR26WNW,NWXXR27NNW,NXXXR28NNE,NEXXR29ENE,EXXXR30ESE,SE,SSEXXXShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuatePAZ(s)ShelterinPlacePAZ(s)Evacuate EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table62.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13WinterMidweekMiddayGoodConstructionofVCSNSUnits2and314SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonI26Eastbound1Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestoSpringandAutumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table71.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummer WinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMidday GoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35R022:152:151:401:401:452:152:152:151:401:401:401:451:552:15 R032:252:252:052:102:052:252:252:252:052:102:102:052:102:252MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR042:002:001:351:351:452:002:002:001:351:351:351:451:452:00 R052:102:101:401:401:452:102:102:101:401:401:401:451:502:10R062:002:051:351:401:452:002:002:051:351:401:401:451:502:00 R071:551:551:351:351:451:551:551:551:351:351:351:451:451:55R082:052:051:351:401:452:052:052:051:351:401:401:451:502:05 R091:551:551:301:351:401:551:551:551:301:351:351:401:501:55R102:002:001:351:351:452:002:002:001:351:351:351:451:502:00 R112:002:001:351:351:451:551:552:001:351:351:351:451:452:005MileRingandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR122:202:201:451:451:502:202:202:201:451:451:451:501:552:20R132:202:201:451:451:502:202:202:201:451:451:451:501:552:20R142:252:251:501:501:552:252:252:251:501:501:501:552:002:25 R152:252:251:501:501:552:252:252:251:501:501:501:552:052:25R162:102:152:052:052:052:102:152:152:052:052:102:052:102:15 R172:152:152:052:102:052:152:152:202:052:102:102:052:102:15R182:152:152:052:102:102:152:152:202:052:102:102:102:102:15 R192:102:102:052:052:052:102:102:152:052:052:102:052:052:10R202:202:201:451:451:502:202:202:251:451:451:501:501:552:20 R212:252:251:501:501:552:252:252:251:501:501:501:552:002:25 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table71.(Continuedfromabove)SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR222:152:152:002:002:002:152:152:152:002:002:002:001:552:15R232:052:051:551:552:002:052:052:051:551:551:552:001:452:05R242:102:102:002:002:002:102:102:102:002:002:002:001:502:10R252:052:051:551:552:002:052:052:051:551:551:552:001:502:05R262:002:001:501:502:002:002:002:001:501:501:552:001:502:00R272:052:051:551:552:002:052:052:051:551:552:002:001:552:05R282:002:001:551:552:002:002:002:001:551:551:552:001:502:00R292:052:051:551:552:002:052:052:051:551:551:552:001:502:05R302:002:001:551:552:002:002:002:051:551:551:552:001:452:00 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table72.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummer WinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMidday GoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R024:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 R034:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:552MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR044:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 R054:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R064:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 R074:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R084:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 R094:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R104:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 R114:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:505MileRingandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR124:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 R134:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R144:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 R154:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R164:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 R174:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R184:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 R194:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R204:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 R214:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table72.(Continuedfromabove)SummerSummerSummer WinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR224:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R234:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R244:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R254:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R264:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R274:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R284:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R294:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R304:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table73.StagedEvacuationResults90PercentETEofthe2MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummer WinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMidday GoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR011:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35 R021:401:401:301:301:401:401:401:401:301:301:301:401:401:40R041:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35 R051:401:401:301:301:401:401:401:401:301:301:301:401:401:40R061:401:401:301:301:401:401:401:401:301:301:301:401:401:40 R071:401:401:301:301:401:401:401:401:301:301:301:401:401:40R081:401:401:301:301:401:401:401:401:301:301:301:401:401:40 R091:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35R101:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35 R111:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35StagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR221:451:451:401:401:551:451:451:451:401:401:401:551:401:45 R231:351:351:301:301:451:351:351:351:301:301:301:451:401:35R241:451:451:401:401:551:451:451:451:401:401:401:551:401:45 R251:451:451:401:401:551:451:451:451:401:401:401:551:401:45R261:451:451:401:401:551:451:451:451:401:401:401:551:401:45 R271:451:451:401:401:551:451:451:451:401:401:401:551:401:45R281:351:351:301:301:401:351:351:351:301:301:301:401:401:35 R291:351:351:301:301:401:351:351:351:301:301:301:401:401:35R301:351:351:301:301:451:351:351:351:301:301:301:451:401:35 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table74.StagedEvacuationResults-100PercentETEofthe2MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummer WinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMidday GoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R024:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R044:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R054:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R064:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R074:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R084:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R094:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R104:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R114:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45StagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR224:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R234:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R244:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R254:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R264:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R274:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R284:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R294:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R304:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table87.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTimeLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi.)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min.)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimeEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)FairfieldCounty,SCSchoolsMcCroreyListonElementarySchool9058.245.0111:5013.57192:05KellyMillerElementarySchool9051.441.031:4013.62192:00LexingtonCounty,SCSchoolsAbnerMontessoriSchool5054.445.061:059.75131:15AlternativeAcademy5055.145.071:059.75131:15ChapinElementarySchool5053.442.951:0010.40141:15ChapinHighSchool5054.445.061:059.75131:15ChapinMiddleSchool5052.642.941:0010.40141:15CrookedCreekParkAfterSchoolProgram*1552.843.640:2510.40140:40NewberryCounty,SCSchoolsLittleMountainElementarySchool9058.145.0111:505.8081:55MidCarolinaHighSchool9055.445.081:455.8081:55MidCarolinaMiddleSchool9055.445.081:455.8081:55PomariaGarmanyElementarySchool9054.645.071:454.9771:50MaximumforEPZ:1:50Maximum:2:05AverageforEPZ:1:26Average:1:37*Busesremainatthefacilitywhilestudentsareattheafterschoolprogram;therefore,ashortermobilizationtimeisappropriate.ETEisnotincludedinAverageforEPZasthisfacilityisonlyinusewhenallotherschoolsarenotinsession.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table811.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOneWaveTwoWaveMobilizationRouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTimeETEDistancetoRecCtr(miles)TravelTimetoRec.CtrUnloadDriverRestRouteTravelTime(min)PickupTimeETE11112036.24548303:2011.31551063305:25214036.24548303:4011.31551063305:4512112015.54521302:5513.61851039304:35214015.54521303:1513.61851039304:551311203.7455302:3510.81451019303:5521403.7455302:5510.81451019304:151416011.24515301:455.0751022303:0028011.24515302:055.0751022303:201516015.54521301:5510.91551035303:30MaximumETE:3:40MaximumETE:5:45AverageETE:2:42AverageETE:4:17

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationES19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH7.RegionR07 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.51 INTRODUCTIONThisreportdescribestheanalysesundertakenandtheresultsobtainedbyastudytodevelopEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)fortheVirgilC.SummerNuclearStation(VCSNS),locatedinFairfieldCounty,SouthCarolinafortheexpandedemergencyplanningzone.PopulationestimateshavebeenadjustedtoincludetheexpandedareaofProtectiveActionZoneD2.ETEprovidestateandlocalgovernmentswithsitespecificinformationneededforProtectiveActionDecisions(PAD).Intheperformanceofthiseffort,guidanceisprovidedbydocumentspublishedbyFederalGovernmentagencies.Mostimportantoftheseare:* CriteriaforDevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimateStudies,NUREG/CR7002,November2011.* CriteriaforPreparationandEvaluationofRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlansandPreparednessinSupportofNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG0654/FEMAREP1,Rev.1,November1980.* AnalysisofTechniquesforEstimatingEvacuationTimesforEmergencyPlanningZones,NUREG/CR1745,November1980.* DevelopmentofEvacuationTimeEstimatesforNuclearPowerPlants,NUREG/CR6863,January2005.Theworkeffortreportedhereinwassupportedandguidedbylocalstakeholderswhocontributedsuggestions,critiques,andthelocalknowledgebaserequired.Table11presentsasummaryofstakeholdersandinteractions.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table11.StakeholderInteractionStakeholderNatureofStakeholderInteractionSouthCarolinaElectricandGasemergencymanagementpersonnelMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagenciesFairfieldCountyEmergencyManagementOfficeLexingtonCountyEmergencyManagementOfficeNewberryCountyEmergencyManagementOfficeRichlandCountyEmergencyManagementOfficeMeetingstodefinedatarequirementsandsetupcontactswithlocalgovernmentagencies.Obtainlocalemergencyplans,specialfacilitydata,majoremploymentdataLocalSheriff'sDepartments,SCStateDepartmentofPublicSafety(SCHighwayPatrol)ReviewthetrafficmanagementplansFairfieldSchoolDistrictLexingtonRichlandSchoolDistrictNewberrySchoolDistrictReviewschoolevacuationprocedures,enrollmentandstaffingdata,transportationneedsSouthCarolinaEmergencyManagementDivisionSouthCarolinaOperationalRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlan(SCORERP)integrationNewberryandLexingtonCountyDayCareCentersLexingtonCountyHealthFacilityEnrollment(patient)andstaffingdata,transportationneeds1.1 OverviewoftheETEProcessThefollowingoutlinepresentsabriefdescriptionoftheworkeffortinchronologicalsequence:1. InformationGathering:a. DefinedthescopeofworkindiscussionswithrepresentativesfromSouthCarolinaElectric&Gas(SCE&G).b. AttendedmeetingswithemergencyplannersfromfourEPZcounties,SouthCarolinaStategovernmentandstateandlocalpoliceagenciestoidentifyissuestobeaddressedandresourcesavailable.c. ConductedadetailedfieldsurveyofthehighwaysystemandofareatrafficconditionswithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)andShadowRegion.d. ReviewedexistingcountyandstateEmergencyOperationsPlans.e. Obtaineddemographicdatafromcensus,state,andlocalagencies.f. ReviewedanexistingrandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.g. Conductedadatacollectionefforttoidentifyanddescribeschools,specialfacilities,majoremployers,transportationproviders,andotherimportantinformation.2. EstimateddistributionsofTripGenerationtimesrepresentingthetimerequiredbyvariouspopulationgroups(permanentresidents,employees,andtransients)toprepare EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5(mobilize)fortheevacuationtrip.Theseestimatesareprimarilybasedupontherandomsampletelephonesurvey.3. DefinedEvacuationScenarios.Thesescenariosreflectthevariationindemand,intripgenerationdistributionandinhighwaycapacities,associatedwithdifferentseasons,dayofweek,timeofday,andweatherconditions.Inaddition,a"specialevent"scenario,whichrepresentsatypicalmidweek,middaywithpeakconstructionworkersonsiteatUnits2and3atthetimeofanemergencyduringanoutageatUnit1,wasconsidered.4. Reviewedtheexistingtrafficmanagementplantobeimplementedbylocalandstatepoliceintheeventofanincidentattheplant.TrafficcontrolisappliedatspecifiedTrafficControlPoints(TCP)locatedwithintheEPZ.5. UsedexistingProtectiveActionZones(PAZ)todefineEvacuationRegions.TheEPZispartitionedinto13PAZsalongjurisdictionalandgeographicboundaries."Regions"aregroupsofcontiguousPAZsforwhichETEarecalculated.TheconfigurationsoftheseRegionsreflectwinddirectionandtheradialextentoftheimpactedarea.EachRegion,otherthanthosethatapproximatecircularareas,approximatesa"keyholesection"withintheEPZasrecommendedbyNUREG/CR7002.6. Estimateddemandfortransitservicesforpersonsat"SpecialFacilities"andfortransitdependentpersonsathome.7. PreparedtheinputstreamsfortheDYNEVIIsystem.a. Estimatedtheevacuationtrafficdemand,basedontheavailableinformationderivedfrom2010Censusdata,andfromdataprovidedbylocalandstateagencies,SCE&Gandfromthetelephonesurvey.b. Appliedtheproceduresspecifiedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM1)tothedataacquiredduringthefieldsurvey,toestimatethecapacityofallhighwaysegmentscomprisingtheevacuationroutes.c. Developedthelinknoderepresentationoftheevacuationnetwork,whichisusedasthebasisforthecomputeranalysisthatcalculatestheETE.d. CalculatedtheevacuatingtrafficdemandforeachRegionandforeachScenario.e. Specifiedselectedcandidatedestinationsforeach"origin"(locationofeach"source"whereevacuationtripsaregeneratedoverthemobilizationtime)tosupportevacuationtravelconsistentwithoutboundmovementrelativetothelocationoftheplant.8. ExecutedtheDYNEVIIsystemtoprovidetheestimatesofevacuationroutingandETEforallresidents,transients,andemployees("generalpopulation")withaccesstoprivatevehicles.GeneratedacompletesetofETEforallspecifiedRegionsandScenarios.1HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010),TransportationResearchBoard,NationalResearchCouncil,2010.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.59. DocumentedETEinformatsinaccordancewithNUREG/CR7002.10. CalculatedtheETEforalltransitactivitiesincludingthoseforspecialfacilities(schools,medicalfacilities,etc.),forthetransitdependentpopulationandforhomeboundspecialneedspopulation.1.2 TheVirgilC.SummerNuclearStation(VCSNS)LocationTheVirgilC.SummerNuclearStationislocatedinFairfieldCounty,SouthCarolina,about17mileswestsouthwestofWinnsboro,18mileseastofNewberry,and25milesnorthwestofColumbia,thestateCapitol.TheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)consistsofpartsoffourcounties:FairfieldCounty,LexingtonCounty,NewberryCounty,andRichlandCounty.TheareasurroundingVCSNSisshowninFigure11.Thismapidentifiesthecommunitiesintheareaandthemajorroads.TheEPZ,whichapproximatesanareaof10mileradiussurroundingthesite,ispredominantlyruralinnature,withapermanentpopulationofabout14,000people.Itischaracterizedbygentlyrollingterrainandhasgoodprimaryandsecondarypavedroads.TherearenomajorconcentrationsofpopulationwithintheEPZ.TheonlysignificantrecreationalareawithintheEPZisLakeMonticello;VCSNSislocatedonitssouthernshoreline.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure11.VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationSiteLocation EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.51.3 PreliminaryActivitiesTheseactivitiesaredescribedbelow.FieldSurveysoftheHighwayNetworkKLDpersonneldrovetheentirehighwaysystemwithintheEPZandtheShadowRegionwhichconsistsoftheareabetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant.Thecharacteristicsofeachsectionofhighwaywererecorded.ThesecharacteristicsareshowninTable12:Table12.HighwayCharacteristics Numberoflanes Postedspeed Pavementwidth Actualfreespeed Shouldertype&width Abuttinglanduse Intersectionconfiguration Controldevices Lanechannelization Interchangegeometries Geometrics:curves,grades Trafficsignaltype Unusualcharacteristics:Narrowbridges,sharpcurves,poorpavement,floodwarningsigns,inadequatedelineations,etc.Videoandaudiorecordingequipmentwereusedtocaptureapermanentrecordofthehighwayinfrastructure.Noattemptwasmadetometiculouslymeasuresuchattributesaslanewidthandshoulderwidth;estimatesofthesemeasuresbasedonvisualobservationandrecordedimageswereconsideredappropriateforthepurposeofestimatingthecapacityofhighwaysections.Forexample,Exhibit157intheHCMindicatesthatareductioninlanewidthfrom12feet(the"base"value)to10feetcanreducefreeflowspeed(FFS)by1.1mph-notamaterialdifference-fortwolanehighways.Exhibit1530intheHCMshowslittlesensitivityfortheestimatesofServiceVolumesatLevelofService(LOS)E(nearcapacity),withrespecttoFFS,fortwolanehighways.Thedatafromtheaudioandvideorecordingswereusedtocreatedetailedgeographicalinformationsystems(GIS)shapefilesanddatabasesoftheroadwaycharacteristicsandofthetrafficcontroldevicesobservedduringtheroadsurvey;thisinformationwasreferencedwhilepreparingtheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.Asdocumentedonpage155oftheHCM2010,thecapacityofatwolanehighwayis1700passengercarsperhourinonedirection.Forfreewaysections,avalueof2250vehiclesperhourperlaneisassigned,asperExhibit1117oftheHCM2010.Theroadsurveyhasidentifiedseveralsegmentswhicharecharacterizedbyadversegeometricsontwolanehighwayswhicharereflectedinreducedvaluesforbothcapacityandspeed.TheseestimatesareconsistentwiththeservicevolumesforLOSEpresentedinHCMExhibit1530.TheselinksmaybeidentifiedbyreviewingAppendixK.LinkcapacityisaninputtoDYNEVIIwhichcomputesthe EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5ETE.FurtherdiscussionofroadwaycapacityisprovidedinSection4ofthisreport.Trafficsignalsareeitherpretimed(signaltimingsarefixedovertimeanddonotchangewiththetrafficvolumeoncompetingapproaches),orareactuated(signaltimingsvaryovertimebasedonthechangingtrafficvolumesoncompetingapproaches).Actuatedsignalsrequiredetectorstoprovidethetrafficdatausedbythesignalcontrollertoadjustthesignaltimings.Thesedetectorsaretypicallymagneticloopsintheroadway,orvideocamerasmountedonthesignalmastsandpointedtowardtheintersectionapproaches.Ifdetectorswereobservedontheapproachestoasignalizedintersectionduringtheroadsurvey,detailedsignaltimingswerenotcollectedasthetimingsvarywithtrafficvolume.TCPsatlocationswhichhavecontroldevicesarerepresentedasactuatedsignalsintheDYNEVIIsystem.Ifnodetectorswereobserved,thesignalcontrolattheintersectionwasconsideredpretimed,anddetailedsignaltimingsweregatheredforseveralsignalcycles.ThesesignaltimingswereinputtotheDYNEVIIsystemusedtocomputeETE,asperNUREG/CR7002guidance.Figure12presentsthelinknodeanalysisnetworkthatwasconstructedtomodeltheevacuationroadwaynetworkintheEPZandShadowRegion.ThedirectionalarrowsonthelinksandthenodenumbershavebeenremovedfromFigure12toclarifythefigure.ThedetailedfiguresprovidedinAppendixKdepicttheanalysisnetworkwithdirectionalarrowsshownandnodenumbersprovided.Theobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveywereusedtocalibratetheanalysisnetwork.TelephoneSurveyAtelephonesurveywasundertakentogatherinformationneededfortheevacuationstudyinDecember2006.SincethepopulationanddemographicsintheEPZhavenotchangedsignificantlyoverthelast5years,thesurveyanditsresultsarestillvalid.AppendixFpresentsthesurveyinstrument,theproceduresusedandtabulationsofdatacompiledfromthesurveyreturns.Thesedatawereutilizedtodevelopestimatesofvehicleoccupancytoestimatethenumberofevacuatingvehiclesduringanevacuationandtoestimateelementsofthemobilizationprocess.Thisdatabasewasalsoreferencedtoestimatethenumberoftransitdependentresidents.DevelopingtheEvacuationTimeEstimatesTheoverallstudyprocedureisoutlinedinAppendixD.Demographicdatawereobtainedfromseveralsources,asdetailedlaterinthisreport.Thesedatawereanalyzedandconvertedintovehicledemanddata.Thevehicledemandwasloadedontoappropriate"source"linksoftheanalysisnetworkusingGISmappingsoftware.TheDYNEVIIsystemwasthenusedtocomputeETEforallRegionsandScenarios.AnalyticalToolsTheDYNEVIISystemthatwasemployedforthisstudyiscomprisedofseveralintegratedcomputermodels.OneoftheseistheDYNEV(DYnamicNetworkEVacuation)macroscopicsimulationmodel,anewversionoftheIDYNEVmodelthatwasdevelopedbyKLDundercontractwiththeFederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA).

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5DYNEVIIconsistsoffoursubmodels: Amacroscopictrafficsimulationmodel(fordetails,seeAppendixC). ATripDistribution(TD)modelthatassignsasetofcandidatedestination(D)nodesforeach"origin"(O)locatedwithintheanalysisnetwork.ThisestablishesasetofODtables. ADynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)modelwhichassignstripstopathsoftravel(routes)whichsatisfytheODtables,overtime.TheTDandDTAmodelsareintegratedtoformtheDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)model,asdescribedinAppendixB. AMyopicTrafficDiversionmodelwhichdivertstraffictoavoidintense,localcongestion,ifpossible.AnothersoftwareproductdevelopedbyKLD,namedUNITES(UNIfiedTransportationEngineeringSystem)wasusedtoexpeditedataentryandtoautomatetheproductionofoutputtables.Thedynamicsoftrafficflowoverthenetworkaregraphicallyanimatedusingthesoftwareproduct,EVAN(EVacuationANimator),developedbyKLD.EVANisGISbasedanddisplaysstatistics,suchasLevelofService(LOS),vehiclesdischarged,averagespeed,andpercentofvehiclesevacuated,outputbytheDYNEVIISystem.TheuseofaGISframeworkenablestheusertozoominonareasofcongestionandqueryroadname,townname,andothergeographicalinformation.TheprocedureforapplyingtheDYNEVIISystemwithintheframeworkofdevelopingETEisoutlinedinAppendixD.AppendixAisaglossaryofterms.Forthereaderinterestedinanevaluationoftheoriginalmodel,IDYNEV,thefollowingreferencesaresuggested: NUREG/CR4873-BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode NUREG/CR4874-TheSensitivityofEvacuationTimeEstimatestoChangesinInputParametersfortheIDYNEVComputerCodeTheevacuationanalysisproceduresarebasedupontheneedto: RoutetrafficalongpathsoftravelthatwillexpeditetheirtravelfromtheirrespectivepointsoforigintopointsoutsidetheEPZ. Restrictmovementtowardtheplanttotheextentpracticable,anddispersetrafficdemandsoastoavoidfocusingdemandonalimitednumberofhighways. Movetrafficindirectionsthataregenerallyoutbound,relativetothelocationoftheVCSNSsite.DYNEVIIprovidesadetaileddescriptionoftrafficoperationsontheevacuationnetwork.Thisdescriptionenablestheanalysttoidentifybottlenecksandtodevelopcountermeasuresthat EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5aredesignedtorepresentthebehavioralresponsesofevacuees.Theeffectsofthesecountermeasuresmaythenbetestedwiththemodel.1.4 ComparisonwithPriorETEStudyTable13presentsacomparisonofthepresentETEstudywiththe2009ETEstudy(Rev.4)performedfortheVCSNSUnits2&3COLA.ThemajorfactorscontributingtothedifferencesbetweentheETEvaluesobtainedinthisstudyandthoseofthepreviousstudycanbesummarizedasfollows: Aslightincreaseinpermanentresidentpopulation. Theuseof20percentshadowevacuationasrequiredbyNUREG/CR7002 Stagedevacuationisconsidered Thehighwayrepresentationisupdatedtoreflectcurrentconditions. TheEPZboundaryconsideredistheboundarycurrentlyinplaceaspartofthecountyandstateRERPplans Tripgenerationdistributionswererecomputedusinganewmethodology.Thenewmethodologyresultedina45minutelongertripgenerationforresidentswithcommuters.Transientandemployeetripgenerationdistributionsweredecreasedby30minutes,andresidentswithoutcommuterstripgenerationdistributionsweredecreasedbyanhourfromthepriorETEstudy. Thenewsystem,DYNEVII,includesaDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)modelwhichrepresentstheabilityofevacueestochangeroutesovertimeinresponsetocongestedconditions. The100thpercentileETEis45minuteslongerthanforthepriorETEstudy:4:55vs.4:10.Thenewvaluereflectsthenewcomputedestimatesofmobilization(tripgeneration)distributionsforresidentswithcommuters,whichexhibitaverylong"tail".The100thpercentileETEaredeterminedsolelybythemobilizationtimedistributions.ThereforeanincreaseintripmobilizationforanygroupwillresultinalongerETE. The90thpercentileETEis25minutesshorterthanforthepriorETEstudy:2:15vs.2:40.Thenewvaluereflectstheshorterestimates(basedonnewcomputation)ofmobilization(tripgeneration)distributions,specificallyfortransients,employees,andresidentswithoutcommuters.Additionally,thisstudyusesasmallerpercentageofvoluntaryshadowevacuation(20%)versusthe2009study(rangesfrom30%to50%)resultinginlessevacuatingvehiclesandshorterETE.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation110KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure12.VCSNSLinkNodeAnalysisNetwork EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation111KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table13.ETEStudyComparisonsTopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyResidentPopulationBasisArcGISSoftwareusing2000USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused;populationextrapolatedto2010.Population=12,850ArcGISSoftwareusing2010USCensusblocks;arearatiomethodused;Population=14,175ResidentPopulationVehicleOccupancy2.68persons/household,1.49evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:1.80persons/vehicle2.68persons/household,1.49evacuatingvehicles/householdyielding:1.80persons/vehicleEmployeePopulationEmployeestreatedasseparatepopulationgroup.EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedbycountyemergencymanagementofficesaboutmajoremployersinEPZ.Anestimateof1.01employees/vehicleisbasedonphonesurveyresults.Employeestreatedasseparatepopulationgroup.EmployeeestimatesbasedoninformationprovidedbycountyemergencymanagementofficesaboutmajoremployersinEPZ.1.01employees/vehicleisestimatedbasedonphonesurveyresults.ShadowevacuationfromwithintheEPZinareasoutsideregiontobeevacuatedandintheshadowregionoutsideoftheEPZboundary50percentofpopulationwithinthecircularportionoftheregion;35percent,inannularringbetweenthecircleandtheEPZboundary.20percentofpopulationwithinallareasoftheEPZnotadvisedtoevacuate;20percentofpopulationintheShadowRegionintheannularringbetweentheEPZboundaryandthe15milecircle(seeFigure21)NetworkSize1,181Links;840Nodes.1,295Links;944Nodes.RoadwayGeometricDataFieldsurveysconductedin2006.Majorintersectionswerevideoarchived.GISshapefilesofsignallocationsandroadwaycharacteristicscreatedduringroadsurvey.Roadcapacitiesbasedon2000HCM.FieldsurveysconductedinMay2011.Majorintersectionswerevideoarchived.GISshapefilesofsignallocationsandroadwaycharacteristicscreatedduringroadsurvey.RoadcapacitiesbasedonHCM2010.SchoolEvacuationDirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter/HostSchool.DirectevacuationtodesignatedReceptionCenter/HostSchool.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation112KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyTransitDependentPopulationDefinedashouseholdswith0vehicles+householdswith1vehiclewithcommuterswhodonotreturnhome+householdswith2vehicleswithcommuterswhodonotreturnhome.Telephonesurveysresultsusedtoestimatetransitdependentpopulation.Definedashouseholdswith0vehicles+householdswith1vehiclewithcommuterswhodonotreturnhome+householdswith2vehicleswithcommuterswhodonotreturnhome.Telephonesurveysresultsusedtoestimatetransitdependentpopulation(SeeTable81).Ridesharing50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideoutwithaneighbororfriend.50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideoutwithaneighbororfriend.TripGenerationforEvacuationBasedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpretripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween45and240minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and240minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and150minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Basedonresidentialtelephonesurveyofspecificpretripmobilizationactivities:Residentswithcommutersreturningleavebetween45and285minutes.Residentswithoutcommutersreturningleavebetween15and180minutes.Employeesandtransientsleavebetween15and120minutes.AlltimesmeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.WeatherNormal,Rain,orIce.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forice.Normal,Rain,orIce.Thecapacityandfreeflowspeedofalllinksinthenetworkarereducedby10%intheeventofrainand20%forice.ModelingIDYNEVSystem:TRADandPCDYNEV(version1.0.0.1).DYNEVII(version4.0.0.0).SpecialEventsOneconsidered-newplantconstructionworkforce.Oneconsidered-newplantconstructionworkforceduringpeakconstructionyearwithanoutageatUnit1.EvacuationCases21Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and13Scenariosproducing273uniquecases30Regions(centralsectorwinddirectionandeachadjacentsectortechniqueused)and14Scenariosproducing420uniquecases EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation113KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TopicPreviousETEStudyCurrentETEStudyStagedEvacuationNotConsideredEvacuationof2mileregionwithshelteringof25mileregionfollowedby25mileevacuationwhen2mileregionevacuationis90%completeEvacuationTimeEstimatesReportingETEreportedfor50th,90th,95th,and100thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.ETEreportedfor90thand100thpercentilepopulation.ResultspresentedbyRegionandScenario.EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheentireEPZSummerMidweekMiddayGoodweather(100%)=4:10SummerMidweekMiddayGoodweather(90%)=2:40SummerMidweekMiddayGoodweather(100%)=4:55SummerMidweekMiddayGoodweather(90%)=2:25 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.52 STUDYESTIMATESANDASSUMPTIONSThissectionpresentstheestimatesandassumptionsutilizedinthedevelopmentoftheevacuationtimeestimates.2.1 DataEstimates1. PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data.2. EstimatesofemployeeswhoresideoutsidetheEPZandcommutetoworkwithintheEPZarebaseduponemploymentdataobtainedfromcountyemergencymanagementofficials.3. Populationestimatesatspecialfacilitiesarebasedonavailabledatafromindividualfacilitiesidentifiedbycountyemergencymanagementofficials.Estimatesoftransientpopulationwerelikewiseobtainedfromlocalofficialsandfromparkingareacapacities.4. RoadwaycapacityestimatesarebasedonfieldsurveysandtheapplicationoftheHighwayCapacityManual2010.5. PopulationmobilizationtimesarebasedonastatisticalanalysisofdataacquiredfromarandomsampletelephonesurveyofEPZresidents(seeSection5andAppendixF).6. Therelationshipbetweenresidentpopulationandevacuatingvehiclesisdevelopedfromthetelephonesurvey.Averagevaluesof2.68personsperhouseholdand1.49evacuatingvehiclesperhouseholdareused.Therelationshipbetweenpersonsandvehiclesforspecialfacilitiesisasfollows:a. Employees:1.01employeespervehicle(telephonesurveyresults)forallmajoremployers.b. ParksandGolfCourses:2.68peoplepervehicle(averagehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthetelephonesurveyresults,assuming1vehicleperfamily);c. SpecialEvents:Plant(VCSNSUnits2and3)constructionemployment,shift,andpeakyearcharacteristicssuppliedbySCE&G EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.52.2 StudyMethodology1. ETEarepresentedfortheevacuationofthe90thand100thpercentilesofpopulationforeachRegionandforeachScenario.ThepercentileETEisdefinedastheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateissuedtoaspecificRegionoftheEPZ,tothetimethatRegionisclearoftheindicatedpercentileofevacuees.ARegionisdefinedasagroupofProtectiveActionZones(PAZ)thatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuate.Ascenarioisacombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.2. TheETEarecomputedandpresentedintabularformatandgraphically,inaformatcompliantwithNUREG/CR7002.3. Evacuationmovements(pathsoftravel)aregenerallyoutboundrelativetotheplanttotheextentpermittedbythehighwaynetwork.Allmajorevacuationroutesareusedintheanalysis.4. Regionsaredefinedbytheunderlying"keyhole"orcircularconfigurationsasspecifiedinSection1.4ofNUREG/CR7002.TheseRegions,asdefined,displayirregularboundariesreflectingthegeographyoftheincludedPAZ.5. AsindicatedinFigure22ofNUREG/CR7002,100%ofpeoplewithintheimpacted"keyhole"evacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewithintheEPZ,butnotwithintheimpactedkeyhole,willvoluntarilyevacuate.20%ofthosepeoplewiththeShadowRegionwillvoluntarilyevacuate.SeeFigure21foragraphicalrepresentationoftheseevacuationpercentages.SensitivitystudiesexploretheeffectonETEofincreasingthepercentageofvoluntaryevacueesintheShadowRegion(seeAppendixM).6. Atotalof14"Scenarios"representingdifferenttemporalvariations(season,timeofday,dayofweek)andweatherconditionsareconsidered.TheseScenariosareoutlinedinTable21.7. Scenario14considerstheclosureofasinglelaneeastboundonInterstate26inLexingtonCounty.Thelaneclosurestartsatexit91atColumbiaAveandextendsforonemiletotheEPZboundary.8. ThemodelsoftheIDYNEVSystemwererecognizedasstateoftheartbytheAtomicSafety&LicensingBoard(ASLB)inpasthearings.(Sources:AtomicSafety&LicensingBoardHearingsonSeabrookandShoreham;Urbanik1).ThemodelshavecontinuouslybeenrefinedandextendedsincethosehearingsandhavebeenindependentlyvalidatedbyaconsultantretainedbytheNRC.ThenewDYNEVIImodelincorporatesthelatesttechnologyintrafficsimulationandindynamictrafficassignment.1Urbanik,T.,et.al.BenchmarkStudyoftheIDYNEVEvacuationTimeEstimateComputerCode,NUREG/CR4873,NuclearRegulatoryCommission,June,1988.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table21.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason2DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13WinterMidweekMiddayGoodConstructionofVCSNSUnits2and314SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonI26Eastbound2Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure21.ShadowEvacuationMethodology EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.52.3 StudyAssumptions1. ThePlanningBasisAssumptionforthecalculationofETEisarapidlyescalatingaccidentthatrequiresevacuation,andincludesthefollowing:a. AdvisorytoEvacuateisannouncedcoincidentwiththesirennotification.b. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommencewithin15minutesaftersirennotification.c. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.2. ItisassumedthateveryonewithinthegroupofPAZsformingaRegionthatisissuedanAdvisorytoEvacuatewill,infact,respondandevacuateingeneralaccordwiththeplannedroutes.3. ItisassumedforastagedevacuationthatwithinthegroupofPAZsadvisedtoshelterbeforebeginningtoevacuate,alltransientsandemployeeswillchoosenottoshelterandbegintheevacuationassoonastheyaremobilized.OfthehouseholdspresentinthePAZsadvisedtoshelter,20percentofthemwoulddisregardtheshelteradvisoryandbegintoevacuateassoonastheyaremobilized.4. 67percentofthehouseholdsintheEPZhaveatleast1commuter;78percentofthosehouseholdswithcommuterswillawaitthereturnofacommuterbeforebeginningtheirevacuationtrip,basedonthetelephonesurveyresults.Therefore52percent(67%x78%=52%)ofEPZhouseholdswillawaitthereturnofacommuter,priortobeginningtheirevacuationtrip.5. TheETEwillalsoincludeconsiderationof"through"(ExternalExternal)tripsduringthetimethatsuchtrafficispermittedtoentertheevacuatedRegion."Normal"trafficflowisassumedtobepresentwithintheEPZatthestartoftheemergency.6. AccessControlPoints(ACP)willbestaffedwithinapproximately2hoursfollowingthesirennotifications,todiverttrafficattemptingtoentertheEPZ.EarlieractivationofACPlocationscoulddelayreturningcommuters.ItisassumedthatnotrafficwillentertheEPZafterthis2hourtimeperiod.7. TrafficControlPoints(TCP)withintheEPZwillbestaffedovertime,beginningattheAdvisorytoEvacuate.TheirnumberandlocationwilldependontheRegiontobeevacuatedandresourcesavailable.TheobjectivesoftheseTCPare:a. Facilitat ethemovementsofall(mostlyevacuating)vehiclesatthelocation.b. Discourageinadvertentvehiclemovementstowardstheplant.c. Provideassuranceandguidancetoanytravelerwhoisunsureoftheappropriateactionsorrouting.d. Actaslocalsurveillanceandcommunicationscenter.e. ProvideinformationtotheEmergencyOperationsCenter(EOC)asneeded, EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5basedondirectobservation,oroninformationprovidedbytravelers.IncalculatingETE,itisassumedthatevacueeswilldrivesafelyandreasonably,travelindirectionsidentifiedintheplan,andobeyallcontroldevicesandtrafficguides.8. Buseswillbeusedtotransportthosewithoutaccesstoprivatevehicles:a. Ifschoolsareinsession,transport(buses)willevacuatestudentsdirectlytothedesignatedhostschools.b. Itisassumedparentswillpickupchildrenatdaycarecenterspriortoevacuation.c. Buses,wheelchairvans,andambulanceswillevacuatepatientsatmedicalfacilitiesandresidentsatseniorfacilitieswithintheEPZ,asneeded.d. Transitdependentgeneralpopulationwillbeevacuatedtoreceptioncenters.e. Schoolchildren,ifschoolisinsession,aregivenpriorityinassigningtransitvehicles.f. BusmobilizationtimeisconsideredinETEcalculations.g. Analysisofthenumberofrequiredroundtrips("waves")ofevacuatingtransitvehiclesispresented.h. Transportoftransitdependentevacueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.9. Provisionsaremadeforevacuatingthetransitdependentportionofthegeneralpopulationtoreceptioncentersbybus,basedontheassumptionthatsomeofthesepeoplewillridesharewithfamily,neighbors,andfriends,thusreducingthedemandforbuses.Weassumethatthepercentageofpeoplewhorideshareis50percent.Thisassumptionisbaseduponreportedexperienceforotheremergencies 3,andonguidanceinSection2.2ofNUREG/CR7002.10. Twotypesofadverseweatherscenariosareconsidered.Rainmayoccurforeitherwinterorsummerscenarios;iceoccursinwinterscenariosonly.Itisassumedthattherainoricyconditionsbeginsearlierorataboutthesametimetheevacuationadvisoryisissued.Transientpopulationsareassumedtobeunaffectedbyweatherconditions.Itisassumedthatroadsarepassableandthattheappropriateagenciesareservicingtheroadsastheywouldnormallywhenicyconditionsarepresent.3InstituteforEnvironmentalStudies,UniversityofToronto,THEMISSISSAUGAEVACUATIONFINALREPORT,June1981.Thereportindicatesthat6,600peopleofatransitdependentpopulationof8,600peoplesharedrideswithotherresidents;aridesharerateof76%(Page510).

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Adverseweatherscenariosaffectroadwaycapacityandthefreeflowhighwayspeeds.ThefactorsappliedfortheETEstudyarebasedonrecentresearchontheeffectsofweatheronroadwayoperations 4;thefactorsareshowninTable22.11. Schoolbusesusedtotransportstudentsareassumedtotransport70studentsperbusforelementaryschoolsand50studentsperbusformiddleandhighschools,basedondiscussionswithstateofficesofemergencymanagement.Transitbusesusedtotransportthetransitdependentgeneralpopulationareassumedtotransport30peopleperbus.

Table22.ModelAdjustmentforAdverseWeatherScenarioHighwayCapacity*FreeFlowSpeed*MobilizationTimeforGeneralPopulationRain90%90%NoEffectIce80%80%NoEffect*Adverseweathercapacityandspeedvaluesaregivenasapercentageofgoodweatherconditions.Roadsareassumedtobepassable.

4Agarwal,M.et.Al.ImpactsofWeatheronUrbanFreewayTrafficFlowCharacteristicsandFacilityCapacity,Proceedingsofthe2005MidContinentTransportationResearchSymposium,August,2005.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.53 DEMANDESTIMATIONTheestimatesofdemand,expressedintermsofpeopleandvehicles,constituteacriticalelementindevelopinganevacuationplan.Theseestimatesconsistofthreecomponents:1. AnestimateofpopulationwithintheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ),stratifiedintogroups(resident,employee,transient).2. Anestimate,foreachpopulationgroup,ofmeanoccupancyperevacuatingvehicle.Thisestimateisusedtodeterminethenumberofevacuatingvehicles.3. Anestimateofpotentialdoublecountingofvehicles.AppendixEpresentsmuchofthesourcematerialforthepopulationestimates.Ourprimarysourceofpopulationdata,the2010Census,however,isnotadequatefordirectlyestimatingsometransientgroups.Throughouttheyear,vacationersandtouristsentertheEPZ.ThesenonresidentsmaydwellwithintheEPZforashortperiod(e.g.afewdaysoroneortwoweeks),ormayenterandleavewithinoneday.Estimatesofthesizeofthesepopulationcomponentsmustbeobtained,sothattheassociatednumberofevacuatingvehiclescanbeascertained.Thepotentialfordoublecountingpeopleandvehiclesmustbeaddressed.Forexample: AresidentwhoworksandshopswithintheEPZcouldbecountedasaresident,againasanemployee,andonceagainasashopper. Avisitorwhostaysatahotelandspendstimeatapark,thengoesshoppingcouldbecountedthreetimes.Furthermore,thenumberofvehiclesatalocationdependsontimeofday.Forexample,motelparkinglotsmaybefullatdawnandemptyatnoon.Similarly,parkinglotsatareaparks,whicharefullatnoon,maybealmostemptyatdawn.EstimatingcountsofvehiclesbysimplyaddingupthecapacitiesofdifferenttypesofparkingfacilitieswilltendtooverestimatethenumberoftransientsandcanleadtoETEthataretooconservative.AnalysisofthepopulationcharacteristicsoftheVCSummerNuclearStation(VCSNS)EPZindicatestheneedtoidentifythreedistinctgroups: PermanentresidentspeoplewhoareyearroundresidentsoftheEPZ. TransientspeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZwhoentertheareaforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation)andthenleavethearea. EmployeespeoplewhoresideoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetobusinesseswithintheEPZonadailybasis.EstimatesofthepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesforeachofthepopulationgroupsarepresentedforeachProtectiveActionZone(PAZ)andbypolarcoordinaterepresentation(populationrose).TheVCSNSEPZhasbeensubdividedinto13PAZ.TheEPZisshowninFigure31.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.53.1 PermanentResidentsTheprimarysourceforestimatingpermanentpopulationisthelatestU.S.Censusdata.Theaveragehouseholdsize(2.68persons/household-SeeFigureF1)andthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhousehold(1.49vehicles/household-SeeFigureF7)wereadaptedfromthetelephonesurveyresults.PopulationestimatesarebaseduponCensus2010data,Table31providesthepermanentresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ,byPAZ.Theyear2010permanentresidentpopulationisdividedbytheaveragehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthetelephonesurveyandthenmultipliedbytheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesperhouseholddeterminedbythetelephonesurveyinordertoestimatenumberofvehicles.PermanentresidentpopulationandvehicleestimatesarepresentedinTable32.Figure32andFigure33presentthepermanentresidentpopulationandpermanentresidentvehicleestimatesbysectoranddistancefromtheVCSNSSite.This"rose"wasconstructedusingGISsoftware.Itcanbearguedthatthisestimateofpermanentresidentsoverstates,somewhat,thenumberofevacuatingvehicles,especiallyduringthesummer.Itiscertainlyreasonabletoassertthatsomeportionofthepopulationwouldbeonvacationduringthesummerandwouldtravelelsewhere.Aroughestimateofthisreductioncanbeobtainedasfollows: Assume50percentofallhouseholdsvacationforatwoweekperiodoverthesummer. Assumethesevacations,inaggregate,areuniformlydispersedover10weeks,i.e.10percentofthepopulationisonvacationduringeachtwoweekinterval. Assumehalfofthesevacationersleavethearea.Onthisbasis,thepermanentresidentpopulationwouldbereducedby5percentinthesummerandbyalesseramountintheoffseason.Giventheuncertaintyinthisestimate,weelectedtoapplynoreductionsinpermanentresidentpopulationforthesummerscenariostoaccountforresidentswhomaybeoutofthearea.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure31.VCSNSEPZ EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table31.EPZPermanentResidentPopulationPAZ2000CensusPopulation2010CensusPopulationA0238220A1372395A2631618B1310341B2414382C1420411C21,4511,515D11,7652,214D22,5623,908E1546536E21,8271,997F1228202F21,3271,436TOTAL12,09114,175EPZPopulationGrowth:17%

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table32.PermanentResidentPopulationandVehiclesbyPAZPAZ2010CensusPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesA0220123A1395219A2618346B1341190B2382213C1411232C21,515848D12,2141233D23,9082,171E1536297E21,9971111F1202111F21,436798TOTAL14,1757,892 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure32.PermanentResidentPopulationbySector3 Mile Detail

................ N 22146 47 22 803241291NNE552691063281900457NE 000064000127ENE0130192862700449 E 0377916203961384211007ESE014306433242615505 SE75665421755965208761SSE90715733147142471400 S 1656144 16864208587 8032046SSW456809116847113149783162SW 352919612202183751521137WSW69510521912473176137962 W 24336391429363108511WNW018624797242540520NW 735471085082580434NNW548490103736104065, 10 MilesEPZ Boundary3 Miles toEPZ Boundary0 - 3 MilesDetail N 0000013016205774 E 0170184701251301020 S 00000000282700 W 0030000020022Resident PopulationMilesRingSubtotalTotalMilesCumulative Total0-1280-1281-22180-22462-32840-3530 3-43530-4883 4-58450-51728 5-67220-62450 6-711930-736437-818100-854538-924540-979079-1034080-101131510-EPZ28600-EPZ14175 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure33.PermanentResidentVehiclesbySector3 Mile Detail

................ N 111262612 451823162NNE30150635151100254NE 00003600072ENE070107481500251 E 0214491145377235563ESE08173619135343283 SE41383012423337115425SSE5039311842622374779 S 10328194361163244481141SSW2304451942637295431756SW 1916113512112020984631WSW3526012169419877536 W 131832279523560284WNW010342554135300288NW 41304602844320240NNW30475057423402275, 10 MilesEPZ Boundary3 Miles toEPZ Boundary0 - 3 MilesDetail N 000007013503341 E 0100142606980611 S 00000000161500 W 0020000010012Resident Vehicles MilesRingSubtotalTotalMilesCumulativeTotal0-1160-1161-21230-2139 2-31590-3298 3-41950-4493 4-54700-5963 5-64040-61367 6-76640-720317-810080-830398-913670-944069-1018940-10630010-EPZ15920-EPZ7892 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.53.2 ShadowPopulationAproportionofthepopulationlivingintheShadowRegion,whichisoutsidetheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)andextendsto15milesradiallyfromVCSNS,mayelecttoevacuatewithouthavingbeeninstructedtodoso.BaseduponNUREG/CR7002guidance,itisassumedthat20percentofthepermanentresidentpopulation,basedonU.S.CensusBureaudata,inthisShadowRegionwillelecttoevacuate.Shadowpopulationcharacteristics(householdsize,evacuationvehiclesperhousehold,mobilizationtime)areassumedtobethesameasthosefortheEPZpermanentresidentpopulation.Table33presentsestimatesofthetotalshadowpopulationandvehicles.Table33.ShadowPopulationandVehiclesbySectorSectorPopulationEvacuatingVehiclesE1,274710ENE7,0223,905ESE996553N261146NE987550NNE8446NNW11666NW11766S7,7594,314SE4,9912,777SSE16,4849,163SSW4,6632,594SW1,443804W2,1861,213WNW937521WSW2,3441,305TOTAL51,66428,7333.3 TransientPopulationTransientpopulationgroupsaredefinedasthosepeople(whoarenotpermanentresidents,norcommutingemployees)whoentertheEPZforaspecificpurpose(shopping,recreation).Transientsmayspendlessthanonedayorstayovernightatcampingfacilities.TheVCSNSEPZhasanumberofareasandfacilitiesthatattracttransients,includingMonticelloReservoir,ParrReservoir,andBroadRiverthatofferhunting,fishing,andboating.ThereisalsosomecampingalongtheBroadRiver.Sevenrecreationalareas,allofwhichofferpicnickingandsixofwhichhaveboatramps,arelocatedintheEPZneartheParrandMonticelloReservoirs.ThereareseverallargerlakesinareasoutsideoftheEPZthatattractthemajorityoftransients EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5inthearea(i.e.LakeMurrayinLexingtonCounty).TherearenolodgingfacilitiesintheEPZ.Phonecallsweremadetorecreationalfacilitiestodeterminethenumberofvisitorsforeachfacility.Itwasdeterminedfromthesecallsthat90%ofthesevisitorsareEPZresidents,leaving10%astransients.Amaximumof240peoplecouldbegolfingintheEPZ(150atMidCarolinaCluband90atLakeMurrayGolfCenter)atanygiventime.Therefore,24ofthetotal240golfersaretransientsvisitingfromoutsidetheEPZ.Accordingtoroadsurveydataofparkinglotcapacityatrecreationalareas,itwasestimatedthatthemaximumnumberofvehiclesvisitingthesevenrecreationalareasneartheParrandMonticelloReservoirsis370.Therefore,37ofthetotal370vehiclesaretransientvehicles(10%oftotalvisitors).Itwasassumedthatfamiliesvisitedtheserecreationalfacilitiestogether.Basedonthisassumptionandusingtheaveragehouseholdsizeof2.68peopleobtainedfromthetelephonesurvey,thetotalnumberoftransientspersitewascomputed-seetableE4.Atotalof121transientscouldberecreatingintheEPZatpeaktimes.Thepeakseasonisthesummer.Table34presentstransientpopulationandtransientvehicleestimatesbyPAZ.Figure34andFigure35presentthesedatabysector.Table34.SummaryofTransientsandTransientVehiclesPAZTransientsTransientVehiclesA000A14417A22710B100B200C100C200D100D296E100E21510F12610F200EPZTOTAL12153 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation310KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure34.TransientPopulationbySector3 Mile Detail

................ N 00450 0

00045NNE000000000NE 0000000026ENE000000000 E 000000000ESE000000000 SE000000000SSE000000000 S 000 00 00 99SSW000000000SW 000000000WSW00000015028 W 000000000WNW13000000013NW 000000000NNW0000000005, 10 MilesEPZ Boundary3 Miles toEPZ Boundary0 - 3 MilesDetail N 0000000026000 E 000000000000 S 0000000000013 W 000000000000Transient PopulationMilesRingSubtotalTotalMilesCumulativeTotal0-100-101-200-202-3390-339 3-4130-452 4-500-552 5-6450-697 6-700-7977-800-8978-900-9979-10150-1011210-EPZ90-EPZ121 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation311KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure35.TransientVehiclesbySector3 Mile Detail

................ N 00170 0

00017NNE000000000NE 0000000010ENE000000000 E 000000000ESE000000000 SE000000000SSE000000000 S 000 0

00 0

66SSW000000000SW 000000000WSW00000010015 W 000000000WNW500000005NW 000000000NNW0000000005, 10 MilesEPZ Boundary3 Miles toEPZ Boundary0 - 3 MilesDetail N 0000000010000 E 000000000000 S 000000000005 W 000000000000Transient VehiclesMilesRingSubtotalTotalMilesCumulative Total0-100-101-200-202-3150-315 3-450-420 4-500-520 5-6170-637 6-700-7377-800-8378-900-9379-10100-104710-EPZ60-EPZ53 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation312KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.53.4 EmployeesEmployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZfallintotwocategories: ThosewholiveandworkintheEPZ ThosewholiveoutsideoftheEPZandcommutetojobswithintheEPZ.Thoseofthefirstcategoryarealreadycountedaspartofthepermanentresidentpopulation.Toavoiddoublecounting,wefocusonlyonthoseemployeescommutingfromoutsidetheEPZwhowillevacuatealongwiththepermanentresidentpopulation.Dataformajoremployers(morethan50totalemployees)intheEPZwasprovidedbythecountyemergencymanagementoffices.ThemajoremployersaresummarizedinTableE3anddiscussedbelow.ThelocationsofthesefacilitiesweremappedusingGISsoftware.TheGISmapwasoverlaidwiththeevacuationanalysisnetworkandemployeevehicleswereloadedontoappropriatelinks.SixmajoremployerswereidentifiedfortheVCSNSEPZ:1. TheVirgilC.SummerNuclearStation Totalemploymentof867people. Maximumshiftemploymentof693people. 90%ofemployeesarenonEPZresidents.2. CentralLabelProducts Totalemploymentof105people. Maximumshiftemploymentof75people. 25%ofemployeesarenonEPZresidents.3. CoreLogic Totalemploymentof135people. Maximumshiftemploymentof135people. 67%ofemployeesarenonEPZresidents.4. EllettBrothers-SportingEquipmentDistributors Totalemploymentof198people. Maximumshiftemploymentof100people. 68%ofemployeesarenonEPZresidents.5. GeneralInformationServices Totalemploymentof400people. Maximumshiftemploymentof340people. Averageof78.5%ofemployeesassumednonEPZresidents.6. GeorgiaPacificCorporation Totalemploymentof300people. Maximumshiftemploymentof100people.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation313KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5 90%ofemployeesarenonEPZresidents.TherearelikelyseveralsmalleremploymentcenterswithintheEPZ,butemployeestherearemostlikelyEPZresidents.Resultsofthetelephonesurveyindicateanemployeevehicleoccupancyrateof1.01personspervehicle,andwereusedtoestimatethenumberofevacuatingemployeevehicles.Table35presentsnonEPZResidentemployeeandvehicleestimatesbyPAZ.Figure36andFigure37presentthesedatabysector.Table35.SummaryofNonEPZEmployeesandEmployeeVehiclesPAZEmployeesEmployeeVehiclesA0624616A100A200B100B200C100C200D100D2444438E100E29089F100F200EPZTOTAL1,1581,143 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation314KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure36.EmployeePopulationbySector3 Mile Detail

................ N 00 0

0 0

0000NNE000000000NE 000000000ENE000000000 E 000000000ESE000000000 SE000000000SSE000000000 S 000 00 04440444SSW00000000624SW 000000000WSW00000009090 W 000000000WNW000000000NW 000000000NNW0000000005, 10 MilesEPZ Boundary3 Miles toEPZ Boundary0 - 3 MilesDetail N 000000000000 E 000000000000 S 00062400000000 W 000000000000EmployeesMilesRingSubtotalTotalMilesCumulativeTotal0-16240-16241-200-26242-300-3624 3-400-4624 4-500-5624 5-600-6624 6-700-76247-800-86248-900-96249-104440-10106810-EPZ900-EPZ1158 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation315KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure37.EmployeeVehiclesbySector3 Mile Detail

................ N 00 0

000 0

00NNE000000000NE 000000000ENE000000000 E 000000000ESE000000000 SE000000000SSE000000000 S 0000004380438SSW00000000616SW 000000000WSW00000008989 W 000000000WNW000000000NW 000000000NNW0000000005, 10 MilesEPZ Boundary3 Miles toEPZ Boundary0 - 3 MilesDetail N 000000000000 E 000000000000 S 00061600000000 W 000000000000Employee VehiclesMilesRingSubtotalTotalMilesCumulativeTotal0-16160-16161-200-26162-300-36163-400-46164-500-5616 5-600-66166-700-76167-800-8616 8-900-96169-104380-10105410-EPZ890-EPZ1143 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation316KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.53.5 MedicalFacilitiesThereisonemedicalfacilityintheVCSNSEPZ:GenerationsofChapin.Chapter8detailstheevacuationtimeestimateforthepatientsofthisfacility.Thenumberandtypeofevacuatingvehiclesthatneedtobeprovideddependsonthenumberofpatientsandontheirstateofhealth.Busescantransportupto30people;wheelchairbuses,upto15people;wheelchairvans,upto4people;ambulances,upto2people(patients).3.6 TotalDemandinAdditiontoPermanentPopulationVehicleswillbetravelingthroughtheEPZ(externalexternaltrips)atthetimeofanaccident.AftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thesethroughtravelerswillalsoevacuate.ThesethroughvehiclesareassumedtotravelonthemajorroutestraversingtheEPZ-USHighways76,176,and321,aswellasInterstate26.ItisassumedthatthistrafficwillcontinuetoentertheEPZduringthefirst120minutesfollowingtheAdvisorytoEvacuate.AverageAnnualDailyTraffic(AADT)datawasobtainedfromthe2010datasuppliedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration'sHighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem.TheAADTwasmultipliedbytheKFactor,whichistheproportionoftheAADTonaroadwaysegmentorlinkduringthedesignhour,resultinginthedesignhourvolume(DHV).Thedesignhourisusuallythe30thhighesthourlytrafficvolumeoftheyear,measuredinvehiclesperhour(vph).TheDHVisthenmultipliedbytheDFactor,whichistheproportionoftheDHVoccurringinthepeakdirectionoftravel(alsoknownasthedirectionalsplit).Theresultingvaluesarethedirectionaldesignhourlyvolumes(DDHV),andarepresentedinTable36,foreachoftheroutesconsidered.TheDDHVisthenmultipliedby2hours(accesscontrolpoints-ACP-areactivatedat120minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate)toestimatethetotalsourcevehiclesloadedontheanalysisnetwork.Asindicated,thereare10,687vehiclesenteringtheEPZasexternalexternaltripspriortotheactivationoftheACP.3.7 SpecialEventsThespecialeventconsideredforthisstudyistheeventinwhichaGeneralEmergencycommencesduringthepeakconstructionyearofUnits2and3attheVCSNSsitewithanoutageatUnit1.Duringthefourthquarterofthepeakconstructionyear,2014,thereisaplannedoutage.Therewillbeanestimated3,500constructionworkers(3,465vehicles)atthattimeatthesite.Therewillalsobeanadditional700employees(693vehicles)attheVCSNSsitefortheoutage.VCSNSpersonnelhaveidentifiedthataradiologicalaccidentispossibleduringanoutage.Therefore,therewouldbeanadditional4,158evacuatingvehiclesfromtheplantsiteifaGeneralEmergencyoccursduringanoutageinthepeakconstructionyear.ApopulationgrowthratewasappliedtoextrapolatethepermanentresidentpopulationintheEPZandShadowRegiontorealisticallyrepresentthisscenario.Anadditional569residentvehiclesand129shadowvehicleswereloadedonthenetworktorepresenttheincreasedpopulationin2014.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation317KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table36.VCSNSSiteExternalTrafficRoadNameDirectionSourceLinkAADT1 KFactor2DFactor2HourlyVolumeSourceVehiclesUpNodeDnNodeI26Eastbound836336338,5490.1070.52,0624,124I26Westbound882482438,5490.1070.52,0624,124US176Westbound88278276,3000.1180.5372743US176Eastbound 384014016,3000.1180.25186372US76Eastbound88138486,3000.1180.25186372US321Northbound86646643,5000.1360.5238476US321Southbound84704703,5000.1360.5238476EPZTotal:10,6871HighwayPerformanceMonitoringSystem(HPMS),FederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA),Washington,D.C.,20112HCM2010,page3103AADTforUS176isassumedequaltoAADTforUS763.8 SummaryofDemandAsummaryofpopulationandvehicledemandissummarizedinTable37andTable38,respectively.Thissummaryincludesallpopulationgroupsdescribedinthissection.Additionalpopulationgroups-transitdependent,specialfacilityandschoolpopulation-aredescribedingreaterdetailinSection8.Atotalof32,139peopleand25,750vehiclesareconsideredinthisstudy.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation318KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table37.SummaryofPopulationDemandERPAResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees SpecialFacilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternalTrafficTotalA0220406240000848A139574400000446A261812270021900876B13416000000347B23827000000389C14118000000419C21,51528000270001,813D12,214420000002,256D23,908739444603474007,968E153610000000546E21,99737159001672003,811F120242600000232F21,43627000392001,855Shadow00000010,333010,333Total14,1752651211,158606,02710,333032,139 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation319KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table38.SummaryofVehicleDemandERPAResidentsTransitDependent TransientsEmployees SpecialFacilities SchoolsShadowPopulationExternalTrafficTotalA0123006160000739A121901700000236A234601000800364B11904000000194B22130000800221C12320000000232C28480000000848D1123340000001,237D22,171464386112002,737E12972000000299E2111141089064001,278F111101000000121F279800001200810Shadow0000005,74710,68716,434 Total7,89218531,14362045,74710,68725,750 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.54 ESTIMATIONOFHIGHWAYCAPACITYTheabilityoftheroadnetworktoservicevehicledemandisamajorfactorindetermininghowrapidlyanevacuationcanbecompleted.Thecapacityofaroadisdefinedasthemaximumhourlyrateatwhichpersonsorvehiclescanreasonablybeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofalaneofroadwayduringagiventimeperiodunderprevailingroadway,trafficandcontrolconditions,asstatedinthe2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM2010).Indiscussingcapacity,differentoperatingconditionshavebeenassignedalphabeticaldesignations,AthroughF,toreflecttherangeoftrafficoperationalcharacteristics.Thesedesignationshavebeentermed"LevelsofService"(LOS).Forexample,LOSAconnotesfreeflowandhighspeedoperatingconditions;LOSFrepresentsaforcedflowcondition.LOSEdescribestrafficoperatingatornearcapacity.Anotherconcept,closelyassociatedwithcapacity,is"ServiceVolume"(SV).Servicevolumeisdefinedas"Themaximumhourlyrateatwhichvehicles,bicyclesorpersonsreasonablycanbeexpectedtotraverseapointoruniformsectionofaroadwayduringanhourunderspecificassumedconditionswhilemaintainingadesignatedlevelofservice."Thisdefinitionissimilartothatforcapacity.ThemajordistinctionisthatvaluesofSVvaryfromoneLOStoanother,whilecapacityistheservicevolumeattheupperboundofLOSE,only.ThisdistinctionisillustratedinExhibit1117oftheHCM2010.Asindicatedthere,theSVvarieswithFreeFlowSpeed(FFS),andLOS.TheSViscalculatedbytheDYNEVIIsimulationmodel,basedonthespecifiedlinkattributes,FFS,capacity,controldeviceandtrafficdemand.Otherfactorsalsoinfluencecapacity.Theseinclude,butarenotlimitedto: Lanewidth Shoulderwidth Pavementcondition Percenttrucktraffic Controldevice(andtiming,ifitisasignal) Weatherconditions(rain,snow,fog,windspeed,ice)Thesefactorsareconsideredduringtheroadsurveyandinthecapacityestimationprocess;somefactorshavegreaterinfluenceoncapacitythanothers.Forexample,laneandshoulderwidthhaveonlyalimitedinfluenceonBaseFreeFlowSpeed(BFFS1)accordingtoExhibit157oftheHCM.Consequently,laneandshoulderwidthsatthenarrowestpointswereobservedduringtheroadsurveyandtheseobservationswererecorded,butnodetailedmeasurementsoflaneorshoulderwidthweretaken.TheestimatedFFSweremeasuredusingthesurveyvehicle'sspeedometerandobservinglocaltraffic,underfreeflowconditions.AsdiscussedinSection2.3,itisnecessarytoadjustcapacityfigurestorepresenttheprevailing1AveryroughestimateofBFFSmightbetakenasthepostedspeedlimitplus10mph(HCM2010Page1515)

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5conditionsduringinclementweather.Basedonlimitedempiricaldata,weatherconditionssuchasrainreducethevaluesoffreespeedandofhighwaycapacitybyapproximately10percent.Overthelastdecadenewstudieshavebeenmadeontheeffectsofrainontrafficcapacity.Thesestudiesindicatearangeofeffectsbetween5and20percentdependingonwindspeedandprecipitationrates.AsindicatedinSection2.3,weemployareductioninfreespeedandinhighwaycapacityof10percentand20percentforrainandice,respectively.Sincecongestionarisingfromevacuationmaybesignificant,estimatesofroadwaycapacitymustbedeterminedwithgreatcare.Becauseofitsimportance,abriefdiscussionofthemajorfactorsthatinfluencehighwaycapacityispresentedinthissection.Ruralhighwaysgenerallyconsistof:(1)oneormoreuniformsectionswithlimitedaccess(driveways,parkingareas)characterizedby"uninterrupted"flow;and(2)approachestoatgradeintersectionswhereflowcanbe"interrupted"byacontroldeviceorbyturningorcrossingtrafficattheintersection.Duetothesedifferences,separateestimatesofcapacitymustbemadeforeachsection.Often,theapproachtotheintersectioniswidenedbytheadditionofoneormorelanes(turnpocketsorturnbays),tocompensateforthelowercapacityoftheapproachduetothefactorstherethatcaninterrupttheflowoftraffic.TheseadditionallanesarerecordedduringthefieldsurveyandlaterenteredasinputtotheDYNEVIIsystem.4.1 CapacityEstimationsonApproachestoIntersectionsAtgradeintersectionsareapttobecomethefirstbottlenecklocationsunderlocalheavytrafficvolumeconditions.Thischaracteristicreflectstheneedtoallocateaccesstimetotherespectivecompetingtrafficstreamsbyexertingsomeformofcontrol.Duringevacuation,controlatcriticalintersectionswilloftenbeprovidedbytrafficcontrolpersonnelassignedforthatpurpose,whosedirectionsmaysupersedetrafficcontroldevices.Theexistingtrafficmanagementplansdocumentedinthecountyemergencyplansareextensiveandwereadoptedwithoutchange.Theperlanecapacityofanapproachtoasignalizedintersectioncanbeexpressed(simplistically)inthefollowingform:where:Qcap,m=Capacityofasinglelaneoftrafficonanapproach,whichexecutesmovement,m,uponenteringtheintersection;vehiclesperhour(vph)hm=Meanqueuedischargeheadwayofvehiclesonthislanethatareexecuting EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5movement,m;secondspervehicleG=MeandurationofGREENtimeservicingvehiclesthatareexecutingmovement,m,foreachsignalcycle;secondsL=Mean"losttime"foreachsignalphaseservicingmovement,m;secondsC=Durationofeachsignalcycle;secondsPm=ProportionofGREENtimeallocatedforvehiclesexecutingmovement,m,fromthislane.Thisvalueisspecifiedaspartofthecontroltreatment.m=Themovementexecutedbyvehiclesaftertheyentertheintersection:through,leftturn,rightturn,anddiagonal.Theturnmovementspecificmeandischargeheadwayhm,dependsinacomplexwayuponmanyfactors:roadwaygeometrics,turnpercentages,theextentofconflictingtrafficstreams,thecontroltreatment,andothers.Aprimaryfactoristhevalueof"saturationqueuedischargeheadway",hsat,whichappliestothroughvehiclesthatarenotimpededbyotherconflictingtrafficstreams.Thisvalue,itself,dependsuponmanyfactorsincludingmotoristbehavior.Formally,wecanwrite,where:

hsat=Saturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles;secondspervehicleF1,F2=Thevariousknownfactorsinfluencinghmfm()=Complexfunctionrelatinghmtotheknown(orestimated)valuesofhsat,F1,F2,-

Theestimationofhmforspecifiedvaluesofhsat,F1,F2,...isundertakenwithintheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelbyamathematicalmodel2.Theresultingvaluesforhmalwayssatisfythecondition:Thatis,theturnmovementspecificdischargeheadwaysarealwaysgreaterthan,orequalto2Lieberman,E.,"DeterminingLateralDeploymentofTrafficonanApproachtoanIntersection",McShane,W.&Lieberman,E.,"ServiceRatesofMixedTrafficonthefarLeftLaneofanApproach".BothpapersappearinTransportationResearchRecord772,1980.Lieberman,E.,Xin,W.,"MacroscopicTrafficModelingForLargeScaleEvacuationPlanning",tobepresentedattheTRB2012AnnualMeeting,January2226,2012 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5thesaturationdischargeheadwayforthroughvehicles.Theseheadways(oritsinverseequivalent,"saturationflowrate"),maybedeterminedbyobservationorusingtheproceduresoftheHCM2010.TheabovediscussionisnecessarilybriefgiventhescopeofthisETEreportandthecomplexityofthesubjectofintersectioncapacity.Infact,Chapters18,19,and20intheHCM2010addressthistopic.Thefactors,F1,F2,-,influencingsaturationflowrateareidentifiedinequation(185)oftheHCM2010.ThetrafficsignalswithintheEPZandShadowRegionaremodeledusingrepresentativephasingplansandphasedurationsobtainedaspartofthefielddatacollection.Trafficresponsivesignalinstallationsallowtheproportionofgreentimeallocated(Pm)foreachapproachtoeachintersectiontobedeterminedbytheexpectedtrafficvolumesoneachapproachduringevacuationcircumstances.Theamountofgreentime(G)allocatedissubjecttomaximumandminimumphasedurationconstraints;2secondsofyellowtimeareindicatedforeachsignalphaseand1secondofallredtimeisassignedbetweensignalphases,typically.Ifasignalispretimed,theyellowandallredtimesobservedduringtheroadsurveyareused.Alosttime(L)of2.0secondsisusedforeachsignalphaseintheanalysis.4.2 CapacityEstimationalongSectionsofHighwayThecapacityofhighwaysectionsasdistinctfromapproachestointersectionsisafunctionofroadwaygeometrics,trafficcomposition(e.g.percentheavytrucksandbusesinthetrafficstream)and,ofcourse,motoristbehavior.Thereisafundamentalrelationshipwhichrelatesservicevolume(i.e.thenumberofvehiclesservicedwithinauniformhighwaysectioninagiventimeperiod)totrafficdensity.ThetopcurveinFigure41illustratesthisrelationship.Asindicated,therearetwoflowregimes:(1)FreeFlow(leftsideofcurve)and(2)ForcedFlow(rightside).IntheFreeFlowregime,thetrafficdemandisfullyserviced;theservicevolumeincreasesasdemandvolumeanddensityincrease,untiltheservicevolumeattainsitsmaximumvalue,whichisthecapacityofthehighwaysection.Astrafficdemandandtheresultinghighwaydensityincreasebeyondthis"critical"value,therateatwhichtrafficcanbeserviced(i.e.theservicevolume)canactuallydeclinebelowcapacity("capacitydrop").Therefore,inordertorealisticallyrepresenttrafficperformanceduringcongestedconditions(i.e.whendemandexceedscapacity),itisnecessarytoestimatetheservicevolume,VF,undercongestedconditions.ThevalueofVFcanbeexpressedas:where:R=ReductionfactorwhichislessthanunityWehaveemployedavalueofR=0.90.Theadvisabilityofsuchacapacityreductionfactoris EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5baseduponempiricalstudiesthatidentifiedafalloffintheserviceflowratewhencongestionoccursat"bottlenecks"or"chokepoints"onafreewaysystem.ZhangandLevinson3describearesearchprogramthatcollecteddatafromacomputerbasedsurveillancesystem(loopdetectors)installedontheInterstateHighwaySystem,at27activebottlenecksinthetwincitiesmetroareainMinnesotaovera7weekperiod.Whenflowbreakdownoccurs,queuesareformedwhichdischargeatlowerflowratesthanthemaximumcapacitypriortoobservedbreakdown.Thesequeuedischargeflow(QDF)ratesvaryfromonelocationtothenextandalsovarybydayofweekandtimeofdaybaseduponlocalcircumstances.ThecitedreferencepresentsameanQDFof2,016passengercarsperhourperlane(pcphpl).Thisfigurecompareswiththenominalcapacityestimateof2,250pcphplestimatedfortheETEandindicatedinAppendixKforfreewaylinks.Theratioofthesetwonumbersis0.896whichtranslatesintoacapacityreductionfactorof0.90.Sincetheprincipalobjectiveofevacuationtimeestimateanalysesistodevelopa"realistic"estimateofevacuationtimes,useoftherepresentativevalueforthiscapacityreductionfactor(R=0.90)isjustified.Thisfactorisappliedonlywhenflowbreaksdown,asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel.Ruralroads,likefreeways,areclassifiedas"uninterruptedflow"facilities.(Thisisincontrastwithurbanstreetsystemswhichhavecloselyspacedsignalizedintersectionsandareclassifiedas"interruptedflow"facilities.)Assuch,trafficflowalongruralroadsissubjecttothesameeffectsasfreewaysintheeventtrafficdemandexceedsthenominalcapacity,resultinginqueuingandlowerQDFrates.Asapracticalmatter,ruralroadsrarelybreakdownatlocationsawayfromintersections.Anybreakdownsonruralroadsaregenerallyexperiencedatintersectionswhereothermodellogicapplies,oratlanedropswhichreducecapacitythere.Therefore,theapplicationofafactorof0.90isappropriateonruralroadsbutisrarely,ifever,activated.Theestimatedvalueofcapacityisbasedprimarilyuponthetypeoffacilityandonroadwaygeometrics.Sectionsofroadwaywithadversegeometricsarecharacterizedbylowerfreeflowspeedsandlanecapacity.Exhibit1530intheHighwayCapacityManualwasreferencedtoestimatesaturationflowrates.Theimpactofnarrowlanesandshouldersonfreeflowspeedandoncapacityisnotmaterial,particularlywhenflowispredominantlyinonedirectionasisthecaseduringanevacuation.Theprocedureusedherewastoestimate"section"capacity,VE,basedonobservationsmadetravelingovereachsectionoftheevacuationnetwork,basedonthepostedspeedlimitsandtravelbehaviorofothermotoristsandbyreferencetothe2010HCM.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodeldeterminesforeachhighwaysection,representedasanetworklink,whetheritscapacitywouldbelimitedbythe"sectionspecific"servicevolume,VE,orbytheintersectionspecificcapacity.Foreachlink,themodelselectsthelowervalueofcapacity.3LeiZhangandDavidLevinson,"SomePropertiesofFlowsatFreewayBottlenecks,"TransportationResearchRecord1883,2004.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.54.3 ApplicationtotheVCSNSStudyAreaAspartofthedevelopmentofthelinknodeanalysisnetworkforthestudyarea,anestimateofroadwaycapacityisrequired.Thesourcematerialforthecapacityestimatespresentedhereiniscontainedin:2010HighwayCapacityManual(HCM)TransportationResearchBoardNationalResearchCouncilWashington,D.C.Thehighwaysysteminthestudyareaconsistsprimarilyofthreecategoriesofroadsand,ofcourse,intersections: TwoLaneroads:Local,State MultiLaneHighways(atgrade) FreewaysEachoftheseclassificationswillbediscussed.4.3.1 TwoLaneRoadsRef:HCMChapter15TwolaneroadscomprisethemajorityofhighwayswithintheEPZ.Theperlanecapacityofatwolanehighwayisestimatedat1700passengercarsperhour(pc/h).Thisestimateisessentiallyindependentofthedirectionaldistributionoftrafficvolumeexceptthat,forextendeddistances,thetwowaycapacitywillnotexceed3200pc/h.TheHCMproceduresthenestimateLevelofService(LOS)andAverageTravelSpeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelacceptsthespecifiedvalueofcapacityasinputandcomputesaveragespeedbasedonthetimevaryingdemand:capacityrelations.Basedonthefieldsurveyandonexpectedtrafficoperationsassociatedwithevacuationscenarios: MostsectionsoftwolaneroadswithintheEPZareclassifiedas"ClassI",with"levelterrain";someare"rollingterrain". "ClassII"highwaysaremostlythosewithinurbanandsuburbancenters.4.3.2 MultiLaneHighwayRef:HCMChapter14Exhibit142oftheHCM2010presentsasetofcurvesthatindicateaperlanecapacityrangingfromapproximately1900to2200pc/h,forfreespeedsof45to60mph,respectively.Basedonobservation,themultilanehighwaysoutsideofsmalltownswithintheEPZservicetrafficwithfreespeedsinthisrange.Theactualtimevaryingspeedscomputedbythesimulationmodelreflectthedemand:capacityrelationshipandtheimpactofcontrolatintersections.A EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5conservativeestimateofperlanecapacityof1900pc/hisadoptedforthisstudyformultilanehighwaysoutsideofurbanareas,asshowninAppendixK.4.3.3 FreewaysRef:HCMChapters10,11,12,13Chapter10oftheHCM2010describesaprocedureforintegratingtheresultsobtainedinChapters11,12,and13,whichcomputecapacityandLOSforfreewaycomponents.Chapter10alsopresentsadiscussionofsimulationmodels.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelautomaticallyperformsthisintegrationprocess.Chapter11oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSfor"BasicFreewaySegments".Exhibit1117oftheHCM2010presentscapacityvs.freespeedestimates,whichareprovidedbelow.FreeSpeed(mph):55606570+PerLaneCapacity(pc/h):2250230023502400Theinputstothesimulationmodelarehighwaygeometrics,freespeeds,andcapacitybasedonfieldobservations.Thesimulationlogiccalculatesactualtimevaryingspeedsbasedondemand:capacityrelationships.Chapter12oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacity,speed,density,andLOSforfreewayweavingsections.Thesimulationmodelcontainslogicthatrelatesspeedtodemandvolume:capacityratio.ThevalueofcapacityobtainedfromthecomputationalproceduresdetailedinChapter12dependsonthe"Type"andgeometricsoftheweavingsegmentandonthe"VolumeRatio"(ratioofweavingvolumetototalvolume).Chapter13oftheHCM2010presentsproceduresforestimatingcapacitiesoframpsandof"merge"areas.Therearethreesignificantfactorstothedeterminationofcapacityofarampfreewayjunction:Thecapacityofthefreewayimmediatelydownstreamofanonramporimmediatelyupstreamofanofframp;thecapacityoftheramproadway;andthemaximumflowrateenteringtherampinfluencearea.Inmostcases,thefreewaycapacityisthecontrollingfactor.ValuesofthismergeareacapacityarepresentedinExhibit138oftheHCM2010,anddependonthenumberoffreewaylanesandonthefreewayfreespeed.RampcapacityispresentedinExhibit1310andisafunctionoftherampfreeflowspeed.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodellogicsimulatesthemergingoperationsoftherampandfreewaytrafficinaccordwithproceduresinChapter13oftheHCM2010.Ifcongestionresultsfromanexcessofdemandrelativetocapacity,thenthemodelallocatesserviceappropriatelytothetwoenteringtrafficstreamsandproducesLOSFconditions(TheHCMdoesnotaddressLOSFexplicitly).

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.54.3.4 IntersectionsRef:HCMChapters18,19,20,21ProceduresforestimatingcapacityandLOSforapproachestointersectionsarepresentedinChapter18(signalizedintersections),Chapters19,20(unsignalizedintersections),andChapter21(roundabouts).Thecomplexityofthesecomputationsisindicatedbytheaggregatelengthofthesechapters.TheDYNEVIIsimulationlogicislikewisecomplex.Thesimulationmodelexplicitlymodelsintersections:Stop/yieldcontrolledintersections(both2wayandallway)andtrafficsignalcontrolledintersections.Whereintersectionsarecontrolledbyfixedtimecontrollers,trafficsignaltimingsaresettoreflectaverage(nonevacuation)trafficconditions.Actuatedtrafficsignalsettingsrespondtothetimevaryingdemandsofevacuationtraffictoadjusttherelativecapacitiesofthecompetingintersect ionapproaches.Themodelisalsocapableofmodelingthepresenceofmannedtrafficcontrol.Atspecificlocationswhereitisadvisableorwhereexistingplanscallforoverridingexistingtrafficcontroltoimplementmannedcontrol,themodelwilluseactuatedsignaltimingsthatreflectthepresenceoftrafficguides.Atlocationswhereaspecialtrafficcontrolstrategy(continuousleftturns,contraflowlanes)isused,thestrategyismodeledexplicitly.Whereapplicable,thelocationandtypeoftrafficcontrolfornodesintheevacuationnetworkarenotedinAppendixK.4.4 SimulationandCapacityEstimationChapter6oftheHCMisentitled,"HCMandAlternativeAnalysisTools."Thechapterdiscussestheuseofalternativetoolssuchassimulationmodelingtoevaluatetheoperationalperformanceofhighwaynetworks.AmongthereasonscitedinChapter6toconsiderusingsimulationasanalternativeanalysistoolis:"ThesystemunderstudyinvolvesagroupofdifferentfacilitiesortravelmodeswithmutualinteractionsinvokingseveralproceduralchaptersoftheHCM.Alternativetoolsareabletoanalyzethesefacilitiesasasinglesystem."ThisstatementsuccinctlydescribestheanalysesrequiredtodeterminetrafficoperationsacrossanareaencompassinganEPZoperatingunderevacuationconditions.Themodelutilizedforthisstudy,DYNEVII,isfurtherdescribedinAppendixC.ItisessentialtorecognizethatsimulationmodelsdonotreplicatethemethodologyandproceduresoftheHCM-theyreplacetheseproceduresbydescribingthecomplexinteractionsoftrafficflowandcomputingMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)detailingtheoperationalperformanceoftrafficovertimeandbylocation.TheDYNEVIIsimulationmodelincludessomeHCM2010proceduresonlyforthepurposeofestimatingcapacity.Allsimulationmodelsmustbecalibratedproperlywithfieldobservationsthatquantifytheperformanceparametersapplicabletotheanalysisnetwork.Twoofthemostimportantoftheseare:(1)Freeflowspeed(FFS);and(2)saturationheadway,hsat.Thefirstoftheseis EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5estimatedbydirectobservationduringtheroadsurvey;thesecondisestimatedusingtheconceptsoftheHCM2010,asdescribedearlier.TheseparametersarelistedinAppendixK,foreachnetworklink.Figure41.FundamentalDiagrams EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation51KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.55 ESTIMATIONOFTRIPGENERATIONTIMEFederalGovernmentguidelines(seeNUREGCR7002)specifythattheplannerestimatethedistributionsofelapsedtimesassociatedwithmobilizationactivitiesundertakenbythepublictopreparefortheevacuationtrip.Theelapsedtimeassociatedwitheachactivityisrepresentedasastatisticaldistributionreflectingdifferencesamongmembersofthepublic.Thequantificationoftheseactivitybaseddistributionsrelieslargelyontheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.WedefinethesumofthesedistributionsofelapsedtimesastheTripGenerationTimeDistribution.5.1 BackgroundIngeneral,anaccidentatanuclearpowerstationischaracterizedbythefollowingEmergencyActionLevels(seeAppendix1ofNUREG0654fordetails):1. UnusualEvent2. Alert3. SiteAreaEmergency4. GeneralEmergencyAteachlevel,theFederalguidelinesspecifyasetofActionstobeundertakenbytheLicensee,andbystateandlocaloffsiteauthorities.AsaPlanningBasis,wewilladoptaconservativeposture,inaccordancewithSection1.2ofNUREG/CR7002,thatarapidlyescalatingaccidentwillbeconsideredincalculatingtheTripGenerationTime.Wewillassume:1. TheAdvisorytoEvacuatewillbeannouncedcoincidentwiththeemergencynotification.2. Mobilizationofthegeneralpopulationwillcommenceupto10minutesaftertheinitialnotification.3. ETEaremeasuredrelativetotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Weemphasizethattheadoptionofthisplanningbasisisnotarepresentationthattheseeventswilloccurwithintheindicatedtimeframe.Rather,theseassumptionsarenecessaryinorderto:1. EstablishatemporalframeworkforestimatingtheTripGenerationdistributionintheformatrecommendedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR6863.2. Identifytemporalpointsofreferencethatuniquelydefine"ClearTime"andETE.Itislikelythatalongertimewillelapsebetweenthevariousclassesofanemergency.Forexample,supposeonehourelapsesfromthesirenalerttotheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Inthiscase,itisreasonabletoexpectsomedegreeofspontaneousevacuationbythepublicduringthisonehourperiod.Asaresult,thepopulationwithintheEPZwillbelowerwhentheAdvisorytoEvacuateisannounced,thanatthetimeofthesirenalert.Inaddition,manywillengageinpreparationactivitiestoevacuate,inanticipationthatanAdvisorywillbebroadcast.Thus,thetimeneededtocompletethemobilizationactivitiesandthenumberofpeople EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation52KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5remainingtoevacuatetheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,willbothbesomewhatlessthantheestimatespresentedinthisreport.Consequently,theETEpresentedinthisreportarehigherthantheactualevacuationtime,ifthishypotheticalsituationweretotakeplace.Thenotificationprocessconsistsoftwoevents:1. TransmittinginformationusingthealertnotificationsystemsavailablewithintheEPZ(e.g.usingsirens,EASbroadcasts,loudspeakers).2. Receivingandcorrectlyinterpretingtheinformationthatistransmitted.ThegeneralpopulationwithintheEPZisdispersedoveranareaofapproximately320squaremilesandisengagedinawidevarietyofactivities.Itmustbeanticipatedthatsometimewillelapsebetweenthetransmissionandreceiptoftheinformationadvisingthepublicofanaccident.Theamountofelapsedtimewillvaryfromoneindividualtothenextdependingonwherethatpersonis,whatthatpersonisdoing,andrelatedfactors.Furthermore,somepersonswhowillbedirectlyinvolvedwiththeevacuationprocessmaybeoutsidetheEPZatthetimetheemergencyisdeclared.Thesepeoplemaybecommuters,shoppers,andothertravelerswhoresidewithintheEPZandwhomayreturntojointheotherhouseholdmembersuponreceivingnotificationofanemergency.AsindicatedinSection2.13ofNUREG/CR6863,theestimatedelapsedtimesforthereceiptofnotificationcanbeexpressedasadistributionreflectingthedifferentnotificationtimesfordifferentpeoplewithin,andoutside,theEPZ.Byusingtimedistributions,itisalsopossibletodistinguishbetweendifferentpopulationgroupsanddifferentdayofweekandtimeofdayscenarios,sothataccurateETEmaybecomputed.Forexample,peopleathomeoratworkwithintheEPZwillbenotifiedbysirenand/orradio(ifavailable).ThosewelloutsidetheEPZwillbenotifiedbytelephone,radio,TV,andwordofmouth,withpotentiallylongertimelags.Furthermore,thespatialdistributionoftheEPZpopulationwilldifferwithtimeofdayfamilieswillbeunitedintheevenings,butdispersedduringtheday.Inthisrespect,weekendswilldifferfromweekdays.AsindicatedinSection4.1ofNUREG/CR7002,theinformationrequiredtocomputetripgenerationtimesistypicallyobtainedfromatelephonesurveyofEPZresidents.Suchasurveywasconductedin2006aspartoftheVCSNSCOLApplication.Useofthissurveyforthe2010ETEeffortisjustifiedbythefactthatthedemographicsoftheareahavenotsignificantlychangedinthelastfiveyears;theaveragehouseholdsizecomputedfromthesurveyresultsdiffersfromthe2010Censusvaluebyabout3percent.AppendixFpresentsthesurveysamplingplan,surveyinstrument,andrawsurveyresults.Itisimportanttonotethattheshapeanddurationoftheevacuationtripmobilizationdistributionisimportantatsiteswheretrafficcongestionisnotexpectedtocausetheevacuationtimeestimatetoextendintimewellbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.TheremainingdiscussionwillfocusontheapplicationofthetripgenerationdataobtainedfromthetelephonesurveytothedevelopmentoftheETEdocumentedinthisreport.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation53KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.55.2 FundamentalConsiderationsTheenvironmentleadinguptothetimethatpeoplebegintheirevacuationtripsconsistsofasequenceofeventsandactivities.Eachevent(otherthanthefirst)occursataninstantintimeandistheoutcomeofanactivity.Activitiesareundertakenoveraperiodoftime.Activitiesmaybein"series"(i.e.toundertakeanactivityimpliesthecompletionofallprecedingevents)ormaybeinparallel(twoormoreactivitiesmaytakeplaceoverthesameperiodoftime).Activitiesconductedinseriesarefunctionallydependentonthecompletionofprioractivities;activitiesconductedinparallelarefunctionallyindependentofoneanother.Therelevanteventsassociatedwiththepublic'spreparationforevacuationare:EventNumberEventDescription1Notification2AwarenessofSituation3DepartWork4ArriveHome5DepartonEvacuationTripAssociatedwitheachsequenceofeventsareoneormoreactivities,asoutlinedbelow:Table51.EventSequenceforEvacuationActivitiesEventSequenceActivityDistribution12ReceiveNotification 123PreparetoLeaveWork22,34TravelHome32,45PreparetoLeavetoEvacuate4N/ASnowClearance 5

TheserelationshipsareshowngraphicallyinFigure51. AnEventisa'state'thatexistsatapointintime(e.g.,departwork,arrivehome) AnActivityisa'process'thattakesplaceoversomeelapsedtime(e.g.,preparetoleavework,travelhome)Assuch,acompletedActivitychangesthe'state'ofanindividual(e.g.,theactivity,'travelhome'changesthestatefrom'departwork'to'arrivehome').Therefore,anActivitycanbedescribedasan'EventSequence';theelapsedtimestoperformaneventsequencevaryfromonepersontothenextandaredescribedasstatisticaldistributionsonthefollowingpages.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation54KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5AnemployeewholivesoutsidetheEPZwillfollowsequence(c)ofFigure51.AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasoneormorecommutersatwork,andwillawaittheirreturnbeforebeginningtheevacuationtripwillfollowthefirstsequenceofFigure51(a).AhouseholdwithintheEPZthathasnocommutersatwork,orthatwillnotawaitthereturnofanycommuters,willfollowthesecondsequenceofFigure51(a),regardlessofdayofweekortimeofday.Householdswithnocommutersonweekendsorintheevening/nighttime,willfollowtheapplicablesequenceinFigure51(b).TransientswillalwaysfollowoneofthesequencesofFigure51(b).Sometransientsawayfromtheirresidencecouldelecttoevacuateimmediatelywithoutreturningtotheresidence,asindicatedinthesecondsequence.ItisseenfromFigure51,thattheTripGenerationtime(i.e.thetotalelapsedtimefromEvent1toEvent5)dependsonthescenarioandwillvaryfromonehouseholdtothenext.Furthermore,Event5depends,inacomplicatedway,onthetimedistributionsofallactivitiesprecedingthatevent.Thatis,toestimatethetimedistributionofEvent5,wemustobtainestimatesofthetimedistributionsofallprecedingevents.Forthisstudy,weadopttheconservativeposturethatallactivitieswilloccurinsequence.Insomecases,assumingcertaineventsoccurstrictlysequential(forinstance,commuterreturninghomebeforebeginningpreparationtoleave)canresultinratherconservative(thatis,longer)estimatesofmobilizationtimes.Itisreasonabletoexpectthatatleastsomepartsoftheseeventswilloverlapformanyhouseholds,butthatassumptionisnotmadeinthisstudy.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation55KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure51.EventsandActivitiesPrecedingtheEvacuationTripHouseholds wait for Commuters 1 Residents 12345EVENTS

1. Notification 2. Aware of situation 3. Depart work 4. Arrive home 5. Depart on evacuation trip (a) Accident occurs during midweek, at midday; year round Households without Commuters and households who do not wait for Commuters Residents 125Residents, Transients at Residence 125 (b) Accident occurs during weekend or during the evening 2 (c) Employees who live outside the EPZ Residents, Transients away from Residence 1245123,5Return to residence, then evacuate Residents at home; transients evacuate directly 1 Applies for evening and weekends also if commuters are at work.

2 Applies throughout the year for transients.

ACTIVITIES 1 2 Receive Notification 2 3 Prepare to Leave Work 2, 3 4 Travel Home 2, 4 5 Prepare to Leave to Evacuate Activities Consume Time EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation56KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.55.3 EstimatedTimeDistributionsofActivitiesPrecedingEvent5Thetimedistributionofaneventisobtainedby"summing"thetimedistributionsofallpriorcontributingactivities.(This"summing"processisquitedifferentthananalgebraicsumsinceitisperformedondistributions-notscalarnumbers).TimeDistributionNo.1,NotificationProcess:Activity12Itisassumed(basedonthepresenceofsirenswithintheEPZ)that85percentofthosewithintheEPZwillbeawareoftheaccidentwithin30minuteswiththeremaindernotifiedwithinthefollowing15minutes.Thenotificationdistributionisgivenbelow:Table52.TimeDistributionforNotifyingthePublicElapsedTime(Minutes)PercentofPopulationNotified00%57%1013%1527%2047%2566%3085%3592%4097%45100%

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation57KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5DistributionNo.2,PreparetoLeaveWork:Activity23ItisreasonabletoexpectthatthevastmajorityofbusinessenterpriseswithintheEPZwillelecttoshutdownfollowingnotificationandmostemployeeswouldleaveworkquickly.Commuters,whoworkoutsidetheEPZcould,inallprobability,alsoleavequicklysincefacilitiesoutsidetheEPZcouldremainopenandotherpersonnelwouldremain.Personnelorfarmersresponsibleforequipment/livestockwouldrequireadditionaltimetosecuretheirfacility.ThedistributionofActivity23showninTable53reflectsdataobtainedbythetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure52.Table53.TimeDistributionforEmployeestoPreparetoLeaveWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWorkElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentEmployeesLeavingWork00%5086%529%5586%1040%6096%1553%6597%2060%7098%2561%7598%3075%8099%3576%8599%4080%90100%4585%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response.Thatis,thesamplewasreducedinsizetoincludeonlythosehouseholdswhorespondedtothisquestion.Theunderlyingassumptionisthatthedistributionofthisactivityforthe"Don'tknow"responders,iftheeventtakesplace,wouldbethesameasthoseresponderswhoprovidedestimates.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation58KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5DistributionNo.3,TravelHome:Activity34Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure52andlistedinTable54.Table54.TimeDistributionforCommuterstoTravelHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHomeElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReturningHome00%4085%512%4594%1024%5096%1535%5596%2052%6098%2559%6599%3077%7599%3580%90100%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation59KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5DistributionNo.4,PreparetoLeaveHome:Activity2,45Thesedataareprovideddirectlybythosehouseholdswhichrespondedtothetelephonesurvey.ThisdistributionisplottedinFigure52andlistedinTable55below.Table55.TimeDistributionforPopulationtoPreparetoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuateElapsedTime(Minutes)CumulativePercentReadytoEvacuate00%7088%510%7591%1019%8091%1529%8592%2039%9093%2550%9593%3060%10093%3563%10593%4066%11094%4569%11595%5074%12096%5579%12598%6084%13099%6586%135100%NOTE:Thesurveydatawasnormalizedtodistributethe"Don'tknow"response EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation510KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure52.EvacuationMobilizationActivities0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150PercentElapsedTimefromStartofMobilizationActivity(min)MobilizationActivitiesNotification PreparetoLeaveWorkTravelHomePrepareHome EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation511KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.55.4 CalculationofTripGenerationTimeDistributionThetimedistributionsforeachofthemobilizationactivitiespresentedhereinmustbecombinedtoformtheappropriateTripGenerationDistributions.Asdiscussedabove,thisstudyassumesthatthestatedeventstakeplaceinsequencesuchthatallprecedingeventsmustbecompletedbeforethecurrenteventcanoccur.Forexample,ifahouseholdawaitsthereturnofacommuter,theworktohometrip(Activity34)mustprecedeActivity45.Tocalculatethetimedistributionofaneventthatisdependentontwosequentialactivities,itisnecessaryto"sum"thedistributionsassociatedwiththeseprioractivities.Thedistributionsummingalgorithmisappliedrepeatedlyasshowntoformtherequireddistribution.Asanoutcomeofthisprocedure,newtimedistributionsareformed;weassign"letter"designationstotheseintermediatedistributionstodescribetheprocedure.Table56presentsthesummingproceduretoarriveateachdesignateddistribution.Table56.MappingDistributionstoEventsApply"Summing"AlgorithmTo:DistributionObtainedEventDefinedDistributions1and2DistributionAEvent3DistributionsAand3DistributionBEvent4DistributionsBand4DistributionCEvent5Distributions1and4DistributionDEvent5Table57presentsadescriptionofeachofthefinaltripgenerationdistributionsachievedafterthesummingprocessiscompleted.Table57.DescriptionoftheDistributionsDistributionDescriptionATimedistributionofcommutersdepartingplaceofwork(Event3).AlsoappliestoemployeeswhoworkwithintheEPZwholiveoutside,andtoTransientswithintheEPZ.BTimedistributionofcommutersarrivinghome(Event4).CTimedistributionofresidentswithcommuterswhoreturnhome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).DTimedistributionofresidentswithoutcommutersreturninghome,leavinghometobegintheevacuationtrip(Event5).

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation512KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.55.4.1 StatisticalOutliersAsalreadymentioned,someportionofthesurveyrespondentsanswer"don'tknow"tosomequestionsorchoosetonotrespondtoaquestion.Themobilizationactivitydistributionsarebaseduponactualresponses.But,itisthenatureofsurveysthatafewnumericresponsesareinconsistentwiththeoverallpatternofresults.Anexamplewouldbeacaseinwhichfor540responses,almostallofthemestimatelessthantwohoursforagivenanswer,but3say"fourhours"and4say"sixormorehours".These"outliers"mustbeconsidered:aretheyvalidresponses,orsoatypicalthattheyshouldbedroppedfromthesample?Inassessingoutliers,therearethreealternatestoconsider:1)Someresponseswithverylongtimesmaybevalid,butreflecttherealitythattherespondentreallyneedstobeclassifiedinadifferentpopulationsubgroup,baseduponspecialneeds;2)Otherresponsesmaybeunrealistic(6hourstoreturnhomefromcommutingdistance,or2daystopreparethehomefordeparture);3)Somehighvaluesarerepresentativeandplausible,andonemustnotcutthemaspartoftheconsiderationofoutliers.Theissueofcourseishowtomakethedecisionthatagivenresponseorsetofresponsesaretobeconsidered"outliers"forthecomponentmobilizationactivities,usingamethodthatobjectivelyquantifiestheprocess.Thereisconsiderablestatisticalliteratureontheidentificationandtreatmentofoutlierssingularlyoringroups,muchofwhichassumesthedataisnormallydistributedandsomeofwhichusesnonparametricmethodstoavoidthatassumption.Theliteraturecitesthatlimitedworkhasbeendonedirectlyonoutliersinsamplesurveyresponses.Inestablishingtheoverallmobilizationtime/tripgenerationdistributions,thefollowingprinciplesareused:1) Itisrecognizedthattheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsareconservativeestimates,becausetheyassumeahouseholdwilldothemobilizationactivitiessequentially,withnooverlapofactivities2) Theindividualmobilizationactivities(preparetoleavework,travelhome,preparehome)arereviewedforoutliers,andthentheoveralltripgenerationdistributionsarecreated(seeFigure54,Table56,Table57)3) Outlierscanbeeliminatedeitherbecausetheresponsereflectsaspecialpopulation(e.g.specialneeds,transitdependent)orlackofrealism,becausethepurposeistoestimatetripgenerationpatternsforpersonalvehicles EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation513KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.54) Toeliminateoutliers,useallofthefollowing:a) themeanandstandarddeviationofthespecificactivityareestimatedfromtheresponsesb) themedianofthesamedataisestimated,withitspositionrelativetothemeannotedc) thehistogramofthedataisinspectedd) allvaluesgreaterthan3.5standarddeviationsareflaggedforattention,takingspecialnoteofwhethertherearegaps(categorieswithzeroentries)inthehistogramdisplay.Ingeneral,onlyflaggedvaluesmorethan4standarddeviationsfromthemeanareallowedtobeconsideredoutliers,withgapsinthehistogramexpected.Whenflaggedvaluesareclassifiedasoutliersanddropped,steps"a"to"e"arerepeated.5) Asapracticalmatter,evenwithoutlierseliminatedbytheabove,theresultanthistogram,viewedasacumulativedistribution,isnotanormaldistribution.AtypicalsituationthatresultsisshownbelowinFigure53.6) Inparticular,thecumulativedistributiondiffersfromthenormaldistributionintwokeyaspects,bothveryimportantinloadinganetworktoestimateevacuationtimes: Mostoftherealdataistotheleftofthe"normal"curveabove,indicatingthatthenetworkloadsfasterforthefirst8085%ofthevehicles,potentiallycausingmore(and0.0%10.0%20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%100.0%2.57.512.5 17.5 22.527.532.537.542.5 47.552.557.5 67.582.597.5112.5CumulativePercentage(%)CenterofInterval(minutes)

CumulativeDataCumulativeNormalFigure53.ComparisonofDataDistributionandNormalDistribution EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation514KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5earlier)congestionthanotherwisemodeled Thelast1015%oftherealdata"tailsoff"slowerthanthecomparable"normal"curve,indicatingthatthereissometrafficstillloadingatlatertimes.Becausethesetwofeaturesareimportanttopreserve,itisthehistogramofthedatathatisusedtodescribethemobilizationactivities,nota"normal"curvefittothedata.Onecouldconsiderotherdistributions,butusingtheshapeoftheactualdatacurveisunambiguousandpreservestheseimportantfeatures7) WiththemobilizationactivitieseachmodeledaccordingtoSteps16,includingpreservingthefeaturescitedinStep6,theoverall(ortotal)mobilizationtimesareconstructed.Thisisdonebyusingthedatasetsanddistributionsunderdifferentscenarios(e.g.commuterreturning,nocommuterreturning).Ingeneral,theseareadditive,usingweightingbasedupontheprobabilitydistributionsofeachelement;Figure54presentsthecombinedtripgenerationdistributionsdesignatedA,C,andD.Thesedistributionsarepresentedonthesametimescale.(Asdiscussedearlier,theuseofstrictlyadditiveactivitiesisaconservativeapproach,becauseitmakesallactivitiessequential-preparationfordeparturefollowsthereturnofthecommuter;snowclearancefollowsthepreparationfordeparture,andsoforth.Inpractice,itisreasonablethatsomeoftheseactivitiesaredoneinparallel,atleasttosomeextent-forinstance,preparationtodepartbeginsbyahouseholdmemberathomewhilethecommuterisstillontheroad.)Oncethemobilizationdistributionsarecomputed,theyarereviewedsothatwhenthecumulativedistributionreachesalevelthatfurthervehiclegenerationfromanysourcenodeislessthanonevehicle,thecumulativedistributionisadjustedasfollows:(a)Assumingthemaximumgenerationfromanysourceis2,000vehicles,thegenerationbecomeslessthanonevehiclewhenthecumulativeprobabilityisgreaterthan0.9995[thatis,F(t)>0.9995];(b)whenthisisattained,thecumulativedistributionisrescaledsothatitattains1.0000atthatpoint.Inthisway,byrescalingthecurve,thefullnumberofvehiclesaregenerated.Thenumberof2,000foranyonesourceisusedasthedefaultcondition.Thesumofgeneratedvehiclesoverallsourcescanofcourseexceed100,000ormore.Intherarecasethatasinglesourcegeneratesmorethan2,000vehicles,thesoftwaremodelsitasmultipleconcurrentsources,eachbelow2,000vehicles.Themobilizationdistributionsthatresultareusedintheirtabular/graphicalformasdirectinputstolatercomputationsthatleadtotheETE.TheDYNEVIISystemisdesignedtoacceptvaryingratesofvehicletripgenerationforeachorigincentroid,expressedintheformofhistograms.Thesehistograms,whichrepresentDistributionsA,C,andD,properlydisplacedwithrespecttooneanother,aretabulatedinTable58(DistributionB,ArriveHome,omittedforclarity).Thefinaltimeperiod(13)is600minuteslong.Thistimeperiodisaddedtoallowtheanalysisnetworktoclear,intheeventcongestionpersistsbeyondthetripgenerationperiod.Notethattherearenotripsgeneratedduringthisfinaltimeperiod.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation515KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.55.4.2 StagedEvacuationTripGenerationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. PAZscomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. PAZscomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterinplacewhilethetwomileregioniscleared3. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplewhoareshelteringfrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuation4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionareadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthosepeopleoriginallywithinthe2mileregionevacuateacrossthe2mileregionboundary5. Noncompliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%Assumptions1. TheEPZpopulationinPAZsbeyond5mileswillreactasdoesthepopulationinthe2to5mileregion;thatis,theywillfirstshelter,thenevacuateafterthe90thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion.2. ThepopulationintheshadowregionbeyondtheEPZboundary,extendingtoapproximately15milesradiallyfromtheplant,willreactastheydoforallnonstagedevacuationscenarios.Thatis20%ofthesehouseholdswillelecttoevacuatewithnoshelterdelay.3. Thetransientpopulationwillnotbeexpectedtostagetheirevacuationbecauseofthelimitedshelteringoptionsavailabletopeoplewhomaybeatparks,onabeach,orothervenues.Also,notifyingthetransientpopulationofastagedevacuationwouldprovedifficult.4. EmployeeswillalsobeassumedtoevacuatewithoutstagingProcedure1. Tripgenerationforpopulationgroupsinthe2mileregionwillbeascomputedbasedupontheresultsofthetelephonesurveyandanalysis.2. Tripgenerationforthepopulationsubjecttostagedevacuationwillbeformulatedasfollows:a. Identifythe90thpercentileevacuationtimeforthePAZscomprisingthetwomileregion.Thisvalue,TScen*,obtainedfromsimulationresultsisscenariospecific.Itwillbecomethetimeatwhichtheregionbeingshelteredwillbetoldtoevacuateforeachscenario.b. Theresultanttripgenerationcurvesforstagingarethenformedasfollows:i. Thenonsheltertripgenerationcurveisfolloweduntilamaximumof20%ofthetotaltripsaregenerated(toaccountforshelternoncompliance).

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation516KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5ii. NoadditionaltripsaregenerateduntiltimeTScen*iii. FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceoftripsaregenerated:1. bysteppingupandthenfollowingthenonsheltertripgenerationcurve(ifTScen*is<maxtripgenerationtime)or2. bysteppingupto100%(ifTScen*is>maxtripgenerationtime)c. Note:Thisprocedureimpliesthattheremaybedifferentstagedtripgenerationdistributionsfordifferentscenarios.NUREG/CR7002usesthestatement"approximately90thpercentile"asthetimetoendstagingandbeginevacuating.ThevalueofTScen*issimilarformanyscenarios(seeTable71A)andconsequentlyasingle[representative]valueisusedforallstagedevacuationcases.3. Stagedtripgenerationdistributionsarecreatedforthefollowingpopulationgroups:a. Residentswithreturningcommutersb. ResidentswithoutreturningcommutersFigure55presentsthestagedtripgenerationdistributionsforbothresidentswithandwithoutreturningcommuters;the90thpercentiletwomileevacuationtimeis95minutes,onaverage.Atthe90thpercentileevacuationtime(TScen*),approximately9percentofthehouseholdswithreturningcommutersand18percentofthehouseholdswithoutreturningcommuterswhowereadvisedtoshelterhaveneverthelessdepartedthearea;thesearethepeoplewhodonotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory.Alsoincludedontheplotarethetripgenerationdistributionsforthesegroupsasappliedtotheregionsadvisedtoevacuateimmediately.Sincethe90thpercentileevacuationtimeforthe2mileRegionoccursbeforetheendofthetripgenerationperiod,thesheltertripgenerationdistributionrisestomeetthebalanceofthenonstagedtripgenerationdistribution.FollowingtimeTScen*,thebalanceofstagedevacuationtripsthatarereadytodepartarereleasedwithin15minutes.AfterTScen*+15,theremainderofevacuationtripsaregeneratedinaccordancewiththeunstagedtripgenerationdistribution.Table59providesthetripgenerationforstagedevacuation.5.4.3 TripGenerationforWaterwaysandRecreationalAreasPart312oftheSouthCarolinaOperationalRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlan(August2009)statesthattheSouthCarolinaDepartmentofNaturalResources(SCDNR)willalertpersonsboatingorfishingonLakeMonticelloalongportionsoftheBroadRiver.SCDNRofficerswillinitiatealertandclearingeffortsonthelakeandriverasneeded.AsindicatedinTable52,thisstudyassumes100%notificationin45minutes.Table58indicatesthatalltransientswillhavemobilizedwithin2hours.Itisassumedthatthis2hourtimeframeissufficienttimeforboaters,campers,andothertransientstoreturntotheirvehiclesandbegintheirevacuationtrip.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation517KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure54.ComparisonofTripGenerationDistributions0204060801000306090120150180210240270300

%ofPopulationEvacuatingElapsedTimefromEvacuatingAdvisory(min)MobilizationActivitiesEmployees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommuters EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation518KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table58.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)115550221524240143153030326415181872151510101313615991510715331558151114293000175103000921160006012450010136000000Notes: Shadowvehiclesareloadedontotheanalysisnetwork(Figure12)usingDistributionC SpecialeventvehiclesareloadedusingDistributionA.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation519KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table59.TripGenerationHistogramsfortheEPZPopulationinthe25MileRegionforaStagedEvacuationTimePeriodDuration(Min)PercentofTotalTripsGeneratedWithinIndicatedTimePeriodinthe25MileRegionforaStagedEvacuationEmployees(DistributionA)Transients(DistributionA)ResidentswithCommuters(DistributionC)ResidentsWithoutCommuters(DistributionD)1155500215242403315303015415181815515101032615993271533345081511252693000175103000921160006012450010136000000*TripGenerationforEmployeesandTransients(seeTable58)isthesameforUnstagedandStagedEvacuation.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation520KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure55.ComparisonofStagedandUnstagedTripGenerationDistributionsinthe25MileRegion02040 60801000306090120150180210240270300

%ofPopulationEvacuatingElapsedTimefromEvacuationAdvisory(min)StagedandUnstagedEvacuationTripGeneration Employees/TransientsResidentswithCommutersResidentswithnoCommutersStagedResidentswithCommutersStagedResidentswithnoCommuters EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation61KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.56 DEMANDESTIMATIONFOREVACUATIONSCENARIOSAnevacuation"case"definesacombinationofEvacuationRegionandEvacuationScenario.Thedefinitionsof"Region"and"Scenario"areasfollows:RegionAgroupingofcontiguousProtectiveActionZones(PAZ),thatformseithera"keyhole"sectorbasedarea,oracircularareawithintheEPZ,thatmustbeevacuatedinresponsetoaradiologicalemergency.ScenarioAcombinationofcircumstances,includingtimeofday,dayofweek,season,andweatherconditions.Scenariosdefinethenumberofpeopleineachoftheaffectedpopulationgroupsandtheirrespectivemobilizationtimedistributions.Atotalof30RegionsweredefinedwhichencompassallthegroupingsofPAZsconsidered.TheseRegionsaredefinedinTable61.ThePAZconfigurationsareidentifiedinFigure61.EachkeyholesectorbasedareaconsistsofacentralcirclecenteredattheVCSNSSite,andthreeadjoiningsectors,eachwithacentralangleof22.5degrees,asperNUREG/CR7002guidance.Thecentralsectorcoincideswiththewinddirection.Thesesectorsextendto5milesdownwind(RegionsR04throughR11)ortotheEPZboundary(RegionsR12throughR21)fromtheVCSNSSite.RegionsR01,R02,andR03representevacuationsofthe2mileregion,5mileregion,andtheentireEPZ,respectively.RegionsR22throughR30aregeographicallyidenticaltoRegionsR02andRegionsR04throughR11,respectively;however,thosesubareasbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2mileregion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.Atotalof14ScenarioswereevaluatedforallRegions.Thus,thereareatotalof14x30=420evacuationcases.Table62isadescriptionofallScenarios.Eachcombinationofregionandscenarioimpliesaspecificpopulationtobeevacuated.Table63presentsthepercentageofeachpopulationgroupassumedtoevacuateforeachscenario.Table64presentsthevehiclecountsforeachscenarioforanevacuationofRegionR03-theentireEPZ.ThevehicleestimatespresentedinSection3are"peakvalues".ThesepeakvaluesareadjusteddependingonthescenarioandregionbeingconsideredusingthescenariospecificpercentagespresentedinTable63andtheregionalpercentagesprovidedinTableH1.ThepercentagespresentedinTable63weredeterminedasfollows:Thenumberofresidentswithcommutersduringtheweek(whenworkforceisatitspeak)isequaltotheproductof67%(thenumberofhouseholdswithatleastonecommuter)and78%(thenumberofhouseholdswithacommuterwhowouldawaitthereturnofthecommuterpriortoevacuating).Seeassumption4inSection2.3.Itisassumedforweekendandeveningscenariosthat10%ofhouseholdswithcommuterswillhaveacommuteratworkduringthosetimes.Employmentisassumedtobeatitspeakduringthewinter,midweek,middayscenarios.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation62KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Employmentisreducedslightly(96%)forsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Thisisbasedontheassumptionthat50%oftheemployeescommutingintotheEPZwillbeonvacationforaweekduringtheapproximate12weeksofsummer.Itisfurtherassumedthatthosetakingvacationwillbeuniformlydispersedthroughoutthesummerwithapproximately4%ofemployeesvacationingeachweek.BasedondiscussionswithVCSNSpersonnel,theeveningandweekendemploymentattheexistingVCSNSSiteisapproximately10%and75%oftheweekdayemployment,respectively.AsshowninTableE3,SCE&GisthelargestemployerintheEPZ;thereforethevalueof10%ofemploymentineveningsand75%ofemploymentonweekendshasbeenappliedtotheEPZasawhole.Transientactivityisassumedtobeatitspeak(100%)duringsummerweekendsandless(25%)duringtheweek.Transientactivityisassumedtobelowduringeveninghours-10%forsummerand3%forwinter.Transientactivityonwinterweekendsisassumedtobe25%.Transientactivityduringwinterweekdaysisassumedtobe25%ofthetransientactivityonsummerweekends(25%),whichequatestoapproximately6%.AsnotedintheshadowfootnotetoTable63,theshadowpercentagesarecomputedusingabaseof20%(seeassumption5inSection2.2)voluntaryevacuationmultipliedbyascenariospecificproportionofemployeestopermanentresidentsintheshadowregion.Forexample,usingthevaluesprovidedinTable63forScenario1,theshadowpercentageiscomputedasfollows:Onespecialeventwasconsidered:theconstructionofUnits2and3attheVCSNSSitecoincidentwithanoutageatUnit1.Thus,thespecialeventtrafficis100%oftheadditionalconstructionandcontractoutageworkersonsiteevacuatedforScenario13and0%forallotherscenarios.Theroadwayimpactscenario(Scenario14)assumesthattheavailablecapacityalongasectionoftheeastboundI26interstatehighwaytraversingtheEPZthroughLexingtonCountywouldbereducedbyclosingasinglelane.Thus,thepercentagesforthisscenarioarethesameasforScenario1.Itisassumedthatsummerschoolenrollmentisapproximately10%ofenrollmentduringtheregularschoolyearforsummer,midweek,middayscenarios.Schoolisnotinsessionduringweekendsandevening,thusnobusestoevacuateschoolchildrenareneededunderthosecircumstances.AsdiscussedinSection7,schoolsareassumedtobeinsessionduringthewinterseason,midweek,middayand100%ofbuseswillbeneededunderthosecircumstances.Transitbusesforthetransitdependentpopulationaresetto100%forallscenariosasitisassumedthatthetransitdependentpopulationispresentintheEPZforallscenarios.Externalexternaltrafficisassumedtobereducedto40%duringtheeveningscenariosandis100%forallotherscenarios.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation63KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table61.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R012MileRingXR025MileRingXXXXXXR03FullEPZXXXXXXXXXXXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFromProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R04S,SSWXXXR05SW,WSWXXXXR06WXXXR07WNW,NWXXR08NNW,NXXXR09NNE,NEXXR10ENE,EXXXR11ESE,SE,SSEXXXEvacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:ProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R12SXXXXXXXR13SSW,SWXXXXXXXXR14WSW,WXXXXXXXXR15WNW,NWXXXXXXXXR16NNWXXXXXXXXXR17N,NNEXXXXXXXXXR18NEXXXXXXXXXR19ENE,EXXXXXXXXR20ESEXXXXXXXShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuatePAZ(s)ShelterinPlacePAZ(s)Evacuate EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation64KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table61(Continuedfromabove)StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R225MileRingXXXXXXR23S,SSWXXXR24SW,WSWXXXXR25WXXXR26WNW,NWXXR27NNW,NXXXR28NNE,NEXXR29ENE,EXXXR30ESE,SE,SSEXXXShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuatePAZ(s)ShelterinPlacePAZ(s)Evacuate EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation65KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure61.VCSNSEPZProtectiveActionZones EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation66KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table62.EvacuationScenarioDefinitionsScenarioSeason1DayofWeekTimeofDayWeatherSpecial1SummerMidweekMiddayGoodNone2SummerMidweekMiddayRainNone3SummerWeekendMiddayGoodNone4SummerWeekendMiddayRainNone5SummerMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone6WinterMidweekMiddayGoodNone7WinterMidweekMiddayRainNone8WinterMidweekMiddayIceNone9WinterWeekendMiddayGoodNone10WinterWeekendMiddayRainNone11WinterWeekendMiddayIceNone12WinterMidweek,WeekendEveningGoodNone13WinterMidweekMiddayGoodConstructionofVCSNSUnits2and314SummerMidweekMiddayGoodRoadwayImpact-LaneClosureonI26Eastbound1Winterassumesthatschoolisinsession(alsoappliestospringandautumn).Summerassumesthatschoolisnotinsession.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation67KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table63.PercentofPopulationGroupsEvacuatingforVariousScenariosScenarioHouseholdsWithReturningCommutersHouseholdsWithoutReturningCommutersEmployees TransientsShadowSpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalThroughTraffic152%48%96%25%23%0%10%100%100%

252%48%96%25%23%0%10%100%100%

310%90%75%100%22%0%0%100%100%

410%90%75%100%22%0%0%100%100%

510%90%10%10%20%0%0%100%40%

652%48%100%6%23%0%100%100%100%

752%48%100%6%23%0%100%100%100%

852%48%100%6%23%0%100%100%100%

910%90%75%25%22%0%0%100%100%

1010%90%75%25%22%0%0%100%100%

1110%90%75%25%22%0%0%100%100%

1210%90%10%3%20%0%0%100%40%

1352%48%100%6%23%100%100%100%100%

1452%48%96%25%23%0%10%100%100%

ResidentHouseholdswithCommuters.......HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhoawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.ResidentHouseholdswithNoCommuters..HouseholdsofEPZresidentswhodonothavecommutersorwillnotawaitthereturnofcommuterspriortobeginningtheevacuationtrip.Employees..................................................EPZemployeeswholiveoutsidetheEPZTransients..................................................PeoplewhoareintheEPZatthetimeofanaccidentforrecreationalorother(nonemployment)purposes.Shadow......................................................Resid entsandemployeesintheshadowregion(outsideoftheEPZ)whowillspontaneouslydecidetorelocateduringtheevacuation.Thebasisforthevaluesshownisa20%relocationofshadowresidentsalongwithaproportionalpercentageofshadowemployees.SpecialEvents............................................AdditionalvehiclesintheEPZduetotheidentifiedspecialevent.SchoolandTransitBuses............................Vehicleequivalentspresentontheroadduringevacuationservicingschoolsandtransitdependentpeople(1busisequivalentto2passengervehicles).ExternalThroughTraffic.............................Trafficoninterstates/freewaysandmajorarterialroadsatthestartoftheevacuation.Thistrafficisstoppedbyaccesscontrolapproximately2hoursaftertheevacuationbegins.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation68KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table64.VehicleEstimatesbyScenarioScenariosResidentswithCommutersResidentswithoutCommutersEmployees Transients ShadowSpecialEventsSchoolBusesTransitBusesExternalTrafficTotalScenarioVehicles14,0793,8131,097136,545201810,68726,27224,0793,8131,097136,545201810,68726,27234087,484857536,3711810,68725,87844087,484857536,3711810,68725,87854087,48411455,830184,27518,13464,0793,8131,14336,5792041810,68726,52674,0793,8131,14336,5792041810,68726,52684,0793,8131,14336,5792041810,68726,52694087,484857136,3711810,68725,838104087,484857136,3711810,68725,838114087,484857136,3711810,68725,838124087,48411415,830184,27518,130134,3774,0841,14336,6744,1582041810,68731,348144,0793,8131,097136,545201810,68726,272NoteNotes:VehicleestimatesareforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)Scenario13takesplaceinthefourthquarterof2014.PopulationgrowthrateshavebeenappliedtoextrapolatepermanentresidentandshadowvehiclesforthisscenarioSeeSection3.7foradditionalinformation.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation71KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.57 GENERALPOPULATIONEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATES(ETE)ThissectionpresentsthecurrentETEresultsofthecomputeranalysesusingtheDYNEVIISystemdescribedinAppendicesB,C,andD.Theseresultscover30regionswithintheVCSNSEPZandthe14EvacuationScenariosdiscussedinSection6.TheETEforallEvacuatio nCasesarepresentedinTable71andTable72.ThesetablespresenttheestimatedtimestocleartheindicatedpopulationpercentagesfromtheEvacuationRegionsforallEvacuationScenarios.TheETEofthe2mileregioninbothstagedandunstagedregionsarepresentedinTable73andTable74.Table75definestheEvacuationRegionsconsidered.ThetabulatedvaluesofETEareobtainedfromtheDYNEVIISystemoutputswhicharegeneratedat5minuteintervals.7.1 VoluntaryEvacuationandShadowEvacuation"Voluntaryevacuees"arepeoplewithintheEPZinPAZsforwhichanAdvisorytoEvacuatehasnotbeenissued,yetwhoelecttoevacuate."Shadowevacuation"isthevoluntaryoutwardmovementofsomepeoplefromtheShadowRegion(outsidetheEPZ)forwhomnoprotectiveactionrecommendatio nhasbeenissued.BothvoluntaryandshadowevacuationsareassumedtotakeplaceoverthesametimeframeastheevacuationfromwithintheimpactedEvacuationRegion.TheETEfortheVCSNSEPZaddressestheissueofvoluntaryevacueesinthemannershowninFigure71.WithintheEPZ,20percentofpeoplelocatedinPAZsoutsideoftheevacuationregionwhoarenotadvisedtoevacuate,areassumedtoelecttoevacuate.Similarly,itisassumedthat20percentofthepeopleintheShadowRegionwillalsochoosetoleavethearea.Figure72presentstheareaidentifiedastheShadowRegion.ThisregionextendsradiallyfromtheplanttocoveraregionbetweentheEPZboundaryandapproximately15miles.ThepopulationandnumberofevacuatingvehiclesintheShadowRegionwereestimatedusingthesamemethodologyusedforpermanentresidentswithintheEPZ(seeSection3.1).AsdiscussedinSection3.2,itisestimatedthatatotalof51,663peopleresideintheShadowRegion;20percent(10,333residents)ofthemwouldevacuate.SeeTable64forthenumberofevacuatingvehiclesfromtheShadowRegion.TrafficgeneratedwithinthisShadowRegion,travelingawayfromtheVCSNSlocation,hasapotentialforimpedingevacuatingvehiclesfromwithintheEvacuationRegion.AllETEcalculationsincludethisshadowtrafficmovement.7.2 StagedEvacuationAsdefinedinNUREG/CR7002,stagedevacuationconsistsofthefollowing:1. PAZscomprisingthe2mileregionareadvisedtoevacuateimmediately2. PAZscomprisingregionsextendingfrom2to5milesdownwindareadvisedtoshelterinplacewhilethetwomileregioniscleared EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation72KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.53. Asvehiclesevacuatethe2mileregion,peoplefrom2to5milesdownwindcontinuepreparationforevacuationwhiletheyshelter4. Thepopulationshelteringinthe2to5mileregionisadvisedtobeginevacuatingwhenapproximately90%ofthe2mileregionevacuatingtrafficcrossesthe2mileregionboundary5. Noncompliancewiththeshelterrecommendationisthesameastheshadowevacuationpercentageof20%SeeSection5.4.2foradditionalinformationonstagedevacuation.7.3 PatternsofTrafficCongestionduringEvacuationFigure73andFigure74illustratethepatternsoftrafficcongestion(orabsenceofcongestion)thatariseforthecasewhentheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isadvisedtoevacuateduringthesummer,midweek,middayperiodundergoodweatherconditions(Scenario1).Trafficcongestion,asthetermisusedhere,isdefinedasLevelofService(LOS)F.LOSFisdefinedasfollows(HCM2010,page55):TheHCMusesLOSFtodefineoperationsthathaveeitherbrokendown(i.e.,demandexceedscapacity)orhaveexceededaspecifiedservicemeasurevalue,orcombinationofservicemeasurevalues,thatmostuserswouldconsiderunsatisfactory.However,particularlyforplanningapplicationswheredifferentalternativesmaybecompared,analystsmaybeinterestedinknowingjusthowbadtheLOSFconditionis.Severalmeasuresareavailabletodescribeindividually,orincombination,theseverityofaLOSFcondition:*Demandtocapacityratiosdescribetheextenttowhichcapacityisexceededduringtheanalysisperiod(e.g.,by1%,15%,etc.);*DurationofLOSFdescribeshowlongtheconditionpersists(e.g.,15min,1h,3h);and*SpatialextentmeasuresdescribetheareasaffectedbyLOSFconditions.Theseincludemeasuressuchasthebackofqueue,andtheidentificationofthespecificintersectionapproachesorsystemelementsexperiencingLOSFconditions.Allhighway"links"whichexperienceLOSFaredelineatedinthesefiguresbyaredline;allothersarelightlyindicated.LittletonocongestionexistswithintheEPZduringtheevacuation.AsshowninFigure73,at1:15aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE),somecongestionisevidentoneastboundUSHighway76inthevicinityofColumbiawithintheShadowRegion,about15milesfromVCSNS.WithintheEPZ,I26operatesatLOSBexceptforasectionexitingthewestoftheEPZ,whichoperatesatLOSC.AtwomilesectionofUS76exitingthewestoftheEPZoperatesataLOSBatthistime.StateHighway215experiencessomecongestionwithintheShadowRegionsoutheastoftheplant;itoperatesatLOSB.MostoftheotherhighwaysectionsoperateatLOSA.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation73KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure74,at2:15aftertheATE,indicatesthatthehighwayswithintheShadowRegionnorthofColumbiaoperateatLOSBandC.Thecongestioninthestudyareaclearsby2:50aftertheATE.ThesectionsofI26exitingtheEPZontheeastandwest,respectively,operateatLOSB.AllotherhighwaysectionsoperateatLOSA.Allhighwaysectionsat4:45aftertheATEwhichmarkstheconclusionofthetripgenerationactivity(SeeSection5)areeffectivelyclearoftraffic.Thus,theETEforthe100thpercentileevacuationisdictatedbythetripgenerationtime.The90thpercentileETEshouldbeconsideredwhenmakingprotectiveactiondecisions,asspecifiedinNUREG/CR7002.Apublicoutreach(information)programtoemphasizetheadvisabilityforevacueestominimizethetimeneededtopreparetoevacuate(securethehome,assembleneededclothes,medicines,etc.)shouldbeconsidered.7.4 EvacuationRatesEvacuationisacontinuousprocess,asimpliedbyFigure75throughFigure718.ThesefiguresindicatetherateatwhichtrafficflowsoutoftheindicatedareasforthecaseofanevacuationofthefullEPZ(RegionR03)undertheindicatedconditions.Onefigureispresentedforeachscenarioconsidered.AsindicatedinFigure75,thereistypicallyalong"tail"tothesedistributions.Vehiclesbegintoevacuateanareaslowlyatfirst,aspeoplerespondtotheATEatdifferentrates.Thentrafficdemandbuildsrapidly(slopesofcurvesincrease).Ifthesystembecomescongested,trafficexitstheEPZatratessomewhatbelowcapacityuntilsomeevacuationrouteshavecleared.Asmoreroutesclear,theaggregaterateofegressslowssincemanyvehicleshavealreadylefttheEPZ.Towardstheendoftheprocess,relativelyfewevacuationroutesservicetheremainingdemand.Thisdeclineinaggregateflowrate,towardstheendoftheprocess,ischaracterizedbythesecurvesflatteningandgraduallybecominghorizontal.Ideally,itwouldbedesirabletofullysaturateallevacuationroutesequallysothatallwillservicetrafficnearcapacitylevelsandallwillclearatthesametime.Forthisidealsituation,allcurveswouldretainthesameslopeuntiltheend-thusminimizingevacuationtime.Inreality,thisidealisgenerallyunattainablereflectingthespatialvariationinpopulationdensity,mobilizationratesandinhighwaycapacityovertheEPZ.TheVCSNSETEunderallconditionsisdictatedbythetripmobilizationtime.ThetrafficcongestionshowninFigure73andFigure74isnotmaterial.Generallytripsaregeneratedovera4hour45minuteperiod(seeTable58).Consequentlythe100thpercentileevacuationtimeisreflectiveofthisvalue.TheentireEPZ(100thpercentile)isevacuatedinunder5hours.7.5 EvacuationTimeEstimate(ETE)ResultsTable71andTable72presenttheETEvaluesforall30EvacuationRegionsandall14EvacuationScenarios.Table73andTable74presenttheETEvaluesforthe2Mileregionforbothstagedandunstaged(i.e.,concurrentevacuation)evacuationofthe2to5mileregions.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation74KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Theyareorganizedasfollows:TableContents71ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.72ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinaRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegion.AllScenariosareconsidered,aswellasStagedEvacuationscenarios.73ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor90percentofthepopulationwithinthe2mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.74ETErepresentstheelapsedtimerequiredfor100percentofthepopulationwithinthe2mileRegion,toevacuatefromthatRegionwithbothConcurrentandStagedEvacuations.

TheVCSNSETEunderallconditionsreflectsthetripmobilizationtime.TrafficcongestionoccursonlywithinasmallportionoftheShadowRegionanditdissipatesafterashortinterval,wellbeforetheendofthetripgenerationprocess.Generally,tripsaregeneratedwithina4hour45minutesperiodaftertheATEforallweatherconditions(seeTable58).Consequentlythe100thpercentileevacuationtimerepresentsthisvalue.TheentireEPZisevacuatedinjustunder5hoursundergoodweather,rain,andiceconditions.ComparisonofScenarios6and13inTable71indicatesthattheSpecialEvent-constructionofUnits2and3atVCSNSin2014-hasaslightlyshorter90thpercentileETEfortheentireEPZ.The90thpercentileETEforthe2mileregion(RegionR01)isslightlylongerbecauseoftheadditional4,158constructionvehiclesevacuatingfromtheVCSNSSite.TheadditionalVCSNSconstructionemployeetrafficinPAZA0mobilizesmorequicklythantheresidentpopulation(seeFigure54).Asaresult,giventhis"frontloading"ofconstructionemployeeevacuationtripsandtheabsenceofcongestionwithintheEPZevenwiththisadditionaltraffic,the90thpercentileETEforthe5milering(RegionR02)andtheentireEPZ(RegionR03)isshorterforScenario13thantheETEshownforScenario6.The100thpercentileETEareunaffectedbythespecialevent.ComparisonofScenarios1and14inTable71andinTable72indicatesthatthelaneclosure-onelaneeastboundonI26inLexingtonCounty-doesnothaveamaterialimpactonthe90thor100thpercentileETE.Whilestateandlocalpolicecouldconsidertrafficmanagementtacticssuchasusingtheshoulderoftheroadwayasatravellaneorreroutingtrafficalongotherevacuationroutes,suchtacticswerenotconsideredinScenario14,andlikelywouldnotbeneededasETEarenotimpactedbythelaneclosure.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation75KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.57.6 StagedEvacuationResultsTable73andTable74presentasummaryofthestagedevacuationresults.RegionsR22throughR30aregeographicallyidenticaltoRegionsR02andRegionsR04throughR11,respectively;however,thosesubareasbetween2milesand5milesarestageduntil90%ofthe2mileregion(RegionR01)hasevacuated.ThesetablespresenttheETEforthe2mileRegion,R01,wheneachoftheindicatedregionsextendingto5miles,areevacuated.Forexample,theresultspresentedforRegionR22inTable73andTable74,indicatetheETEforRegionR01,giventhataSHELTERAdvisory,followedbyanATE(stagedevacuation),isissuedforthosePAZsbetween2and5mileswithinRegion22(geographicallyequivalenttoRegion02).Todeterminewhetherthestagedevacuationstrategyisworthyofconsideration,onemustshowthattheETE(showninTable73andTable74)forthe2Mileregion(R01)canbemateriallyreducedwithoutsignificantlyaffectingtheETEfortheregionswhereinthe2-mileradiusand5milesdownwindareevacuated.Inallcases,asshowninthesetables,theETEforthis2mileregionshowslittlematerialchangewhenastagedevacuationisimplemented.Thisresultreflectstheabsenceofcongestionwhentheevacuationisconcurrent(i.e.,notstaged).Thus,stagingtheevacuationprovidesnobenefitstoevacueesfromwithinthe2mileregion.However,acomparisonof90thpercentileETElistedinTable71betweenRegionsR22andR02,betweenRegionsR23andR04,-,andbetweenRegionsR30andR11revealsthatthetimespentshelteringthepopulationinthe25mileregions,couldincreasetheirETEbyupto20minutes.Thusstagingtheevacuationcouldincreasethe90thpercentileETEforthosewithinthe25mileregionsbyamodestamount.Therearenodifferencesin100thpercentileETEduetostaging,sincetheseETEreflectonlymobilizationtime,whichisunaffectedbystagingtheevacuation.Insummary,thestagedevacuationoptionprovideslittlematerialbenefittothosepeoplewithinthe2mileregion,whileadverselyimpactingevacueeslocatedbeyond2milesfromtheplant.7.7 GuidanceonUsingETETablesTheuserfirstdeterminesthepercentileofpopulationforwhichtheETEissought.(TheNRCcallsforthe90thpercentile).TheapplicablevalueofETEwithinthechosentablemaythenbeidentifiedusingthefollowingprocedure:1. IdentifytheapplicableScenario:* Season Summer Winter(alsoAutumnandSpring)* DayofWeek Midweek Weekend* TimeofDay Midday EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation76KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5 Evening* WeatherCondition GoodWeather Rain Ice* SpecialEvent VCSNSConstructionofUnits2and3andOutageatUnit1 RoadImpact(alaneonI26eastboundisclosed)* EvacuationStagingfora5mileevacuation No,StagedEvacuationisnotconsidered Yes,StagedEvacuationisconsideredWhiletheseScenariosaredesigned,inaggregate,torepresentconditionsthroughouttheyear,somefurtherclarificationiswarranted:* Theconditionsofasummerevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(2)and(4)apply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andrainarenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(7)and(10)forrainapply.* Theconditionsofawinterevening(eithermidweekorweekend)andicearenotexplicitlyidentifiedintheTables.Fortheseconditions,Scenarios(8)and(11)foriceapply.* Theseasonsaredefinedasfollows: Summerassumesthatpublicschoolsarenotinsession. Winter(includesSpringandAutumn)considersthatpublicschoolsareinsession.* TimeofDay:Middayimpliesthetimeoverwhichmostcommutersareatworkoraretravelingto/fromwork.2. WiththedesiredpercentileETEandScenarioidentified,nowidentifytheEvacuationRegion:* Determinetheprojectedazimuthdirectionoftheplume(coincidentwiththewinddirection).Thisdirectionisexpressedintermsofcompassorientation:fromN,NNE,NE,-* DeterminethedistancethattheEvacuationRegionwillextendfromthenuclearpowerplant.TheapplicabledistancesandtheirassociatedcandidateRegionsaregivenbelow: 2Miles(RegionR01) 5Miles(RegionsR02,R04throughR11) toEPZBoundary(RegionsR03,R12throughR21)* EnterTable75andidentifytheapplicablegroupofcandidateRegionsbasedonthedistancethattheselectedRegionextendsfromtheVCSNSSite.SelecttheEvacuationRegionidentifierinthatrow,basedontheazimuthdirectionoftheplume,fromthefirstcolumnofthetable.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation77KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.53. DeterminetheETETablebasedonthepercentileselected.Then,fortheScenarioidentifiedinStep1andtheRegionidentifiedinStep2,asfollows:* ThecolumnsofTable71arelabeledwiththeScenarionumbers.IdentifythepropercolumnintheselectedtableusingtheScenarionumberdeterminedinStep1* IdentifytherowinthistablethatprovidesETEvaluesfortheRegionidentifiedinStep2* TheuniquedatacelldefinedbythecolumnandrowsodeterminedcontainsthedesiredvalueofETEexpressedinHours:MinutesExampleItisdesiredtoidentifytheETEforthefollowingconditions:* Sunday,August10that4:00AM* Itisraining* Winddirectionisfromthenortheast(NE)* Windspeedissuchthatthedistancetobeevacuatedisjudgedtobea5mileradiusanddownwindto10miles(toEPZboundary)* ThedesiredETEisthatvalueneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopulationfromwithintheimpactedRegion* AstagedevacuationisnotdesiredTable71isapplicablebecausethe90thpercentileETEisdesired.Proceedasfollows:1. IdentifytheScenarioassummer,weekend,eveningandraining.EnteringTable71,itisseenthatthereisnomatchforthesedescriptors.However,theclarificationgivenaboveassignsthiscombinationofcircumstancestoScenario4.2. EnterTable75andlocatethegroupofregionsdescribedas"Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZboundary;"thenlocatetherowforwinddirectionfromtheNEandreadRegionR18inthefirstcolumnofthatrow.3. EnterTable71tolocatethedatacellcontainingthevalueofETEforScenario4andRegionR18.Thisdatacellisincolumn(4)andintherowforRegionR18;itcontainstheETEvalueof2:10.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation78KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table71.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof90PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummer WinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMidday GoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR011:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35R022:152:151:401:401:452:152:152:151:401:401:401:451:552:15 R032:252:252:052:102:052:252:252:252:052:102:102:052:102:252MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR042:002:001:351:351:452:002:002:001:351:351:351:451:452:00 R052:102:101:401:401:452:102:102:101:401:401:401:451:502:10R062:002:051:351:401:452:002:002:051:351:401:401:451:502:00 R071:551:551:351:351:451:551:551:551:351:351:351:451:451:55R082:052:051:351:401:452:052:052:051:351:401:401:451:502:05 R091:551:551:301:351:401:551:551:551:301:351:351:401:501:55R102:002:001:351:351:452:002:002:001:351:351:351:451:502:00 R112:002:001:351:351:451:551:552:001:351:351:351:451:452:005MileRingandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR122:202:201:451:451:502:202:202:201:451:451:451:501:552:20R132:202:201:451:451:502:202:202:201:451:451:451:501:552:20R142:252:251:501:501:552:252:252:251:501:501:501:552:002:25 R152:252:251:501:501:552:252:252:251:501:501:501:552:052:25R162:102:152:052:052:052:102:152:152:052:052:102:052:102:15 R172:152:152:052:102:052:152:152:202:052:102:102:052:102:15R182:152:152:052:102:102:152:152:202:052:102:102:102:102:15 R192:102:102:052:052:052:102:102:152:052:052:102:052:052:10R202:202:201:451:451:502:202:202:251:451:451:501:501:552:20 R212:252:251:501:501:552:252:252:251:501:501:501:552:002:25 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation79KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table71.(Continuedfromabove)SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR222:152:152:002:002:002:152:152:152:002:002:002:001:552:15R232:052:051:551:552:002:052:052:051:551:551:552:001:452:05R242:102:102:002:002:002:102:102:102:002:002:002:001:502:10R252:052:051:551:552:002:052:052:051:551:551:552:001:502:05R262:002:001:501:502:002:002:002:001:501:501:552:001:502:00R272:052:051:551:552:002:052:052:051:551:552:002:001:552:05R282:002:001:551:552:002:002:002:001:551:551:552:001:502:00R292:052:051:551:552:002:052:052:051:551:551:552:001:502:05R302:002:001:551:552:002:002:002:051:551:551:552:001:452:00 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation710KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table72.TimetoCleartheIndicatedAreaof100PercentoftheAffectedPopulationSummerSummerSummer WinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMidday GoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactEntire2MileRegion,5MileRegion,andEPZR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R024:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 R034:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:552MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR044:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 R054:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R064:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 R074:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R084:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 R094:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R104:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 R114:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:505MileRingandKeyholetoEPZBoundaryR124:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 R134:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R144:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 R154:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R164:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 R174:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R184:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 R194:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55R204:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 R214:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation711KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table71.(Continuedfromabove)SummerSummerSummerWinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactStagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR224:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R234:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R244:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R254:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R264:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R274:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R284:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R294:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50R304:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation712KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table73.TimetoClear90Percentofthe2MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummer WinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMidday GoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR011:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35 R021:401:401:301:301:401:401:401:401:301:301:301:401:401:40R041:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35 R051:401:401:301:301:401:401:401:401:301:301:301:401:401:40R061:401:401:301:301:401:401:401:401:301:301:301:401:401:40 R071:401:401:301:301:401:401:401:401:301:301:301:401:401:40R081:401:401:301:301:401:401:401:401:301:301:301:401:401:40 R091:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35R101:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35 R111:351:351:301:301:351:351:351:351:301:301:301:351:401:35StagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR221:451:451:401:401:551:451:451:451:401:401:401:551:401:45 R231:351:351:301:301:451:351:351:351:301:301:301:451:401:35R241:451:451:401:401:551:451:451:451:401:401:401:551:401:45 R251:451:451:401:401:551:451:451:451:401:401:401:551:401:45R261:451:451:401:401:551:451:451:451:401:401:401:551:401:45 R271:451:451:401:401:551:451:451:451:401:401:401:551:401:45R281:351:351:301:301:401:351:351:351:301:301:301:401:401:35 R291:351:351:301:301:401:351:351:351:301:301:301:401:401:35R301:351:351:301:301:451:351:351:351:301:301:301:451:401:35

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation713KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table74.TimetoClear100Percentofthe2MileAreawithintheIndicatedRegionSummerSummerSummer WinterWinterWinterWinterSummerMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekWeekendMidweekMidweekScenario:(1)(2)(3)(4)(5)(6)(7)(8)(9)(10)(11)(12)(13)(14)RegionMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMiddayEveningMiddayMidday GoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherRainGoodWeatherGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherRainIceGoodWeatherSpecialEventRoadwayImpactUnstagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR014:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R024:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R044:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R054:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R064:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R074:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R084:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R094:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R104:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R114:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45StagedEvacuation2MileRingandKeyholeto5MilesR224:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R234:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R244:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R254:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R264:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R274:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R284:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 R294:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45R304:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:45 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation714KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table75.DescriptionofEvacuationRegionsRegionDescriptionProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R012MileRingXR025MileRingXXXXXXR03FullEPZXXXXXXXXXXXXXEvacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R04S,SSWXXXR05SW,WSWXXXXR06WXXXR07WNW,NWXXR08NNW,NXXXR09NNE,NEXXR10ENE,EXXXR11ESE,SE,SSEXXXEvacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundaryRegionWindDirectionFrom:ProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R12SXXXXXXXR13SSW,SWXXXXXXXXR14WSW,WXXXXXXXXR15WNW,NWXXXXXXXXR16NNWXXXXXXXXXR17N,NNEXXXXXXXXXR18NEXXXXXXXXXR19ENE,EXXXXXXXXR20ESEXXXXXXXR21SE,SSEXXXXXXXX

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation715KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table75(Continuedfromabove)StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesRegionWindDirectionFrom:ProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R225MileRingXXXXXXR23S,SSWXXXR24SW,WSWXXXXR25WXXXR26WNW,NWXXR27NNW,NXXXR28NNE,NEXXR29ENE,EXXXR30ESE,SE,SSEXXXShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuatePAZ(s)ShelterinPlacePAZ(s)Evacuate EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation716KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure71.VoluntaryEvacuationMethodology EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation717KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure72.VCSNSSiteShadowEvacuationRegion EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation718KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure73.CongestionPatternsat1:15aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation719KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure74.CongestionPatternsat2:15aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation720KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure75.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario1forRegionR03Figure76.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario2forRegionR030510 15 2025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%0 510152025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation721KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure77.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario3forRegionR03Figure78.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario4forRegionR030510 15 2025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%0 510152025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation722KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure79.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario5forRegionR03Figure710.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario6forRegionR030510 15 2025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%0 510152025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation723KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure711.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario7forRegionR03Figure712.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario8forRegionR030510 15 2025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%0 510152025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation724KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure713.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario9forRegionR03Figure714.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario10forRegionR030510 15 2025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario9)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%0 510152025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation725KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure715.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario11forRegionR03Figure716.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario12forRegionR030510 15 2025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Weekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%0 510152025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario12)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation726KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure717.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario13forRegionR03Figure718.EvacuationTimeEstimatesScenario14forRegionR030510 15 2025300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good,Construction(Scenario13)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%0510 15 20 25 300306090120150180210240270300330 VehiclesEvacuating(Thonsands)ElapsedTimeAfterEvacuationRecommendation(min)EvacuationTimeEstimatesSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)2MileRing5MileRingEntireEPZ90%100%

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation81KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.58 TRANSITDEPENDENTANDSPECIALFACILITYEVACUATIONTIMEESTIMATESThissectiondetailstheanalysesappliedandtheresultsobtainedintheformofevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitvehicles(buses).Thedemandfortransitservicereflectstheneedsoftwopopulationgroups:(1)residentswithnovehiclesavailable;(2)residentsofspecialfacilitiessuchasschoolsandhealthsupportfacilities;and(3)homeboundspecialneedspopulation.Thesetransitvehiclesmixwiththegeneralevacuationtrafficthatiscomprisedmostlyof"passengercars"(pc's).ThepresenceofeachtransitvehicleintheevacuatingtrafficstreamisrepresentedwithinthemodelingparadigmdescribedinAppendixDasequivalenttotwopc's.Thisequivalencefactorrepresentsthelongersizeandmoresluggishoperatingcharacteristicsofatransitvehicle,relativetothoseofpc's.Transitvehiclesmustbemobilizedinpreparationfortheirrespectiveevacuationmissions.Specifically:* Busdriversmustbealerted* Theymusttraveltothebusdepot* TheymustbebriefedthereandassignedtoarouteorfacilityTheseactivitiesconsumetime.DiscussionswiththecountyemergencymanagementagencieswithintheVCSNSEPZindicatethatbusesforschoolchildrencanbemobilizedin90minutes,exceptforLexingtonCountywhocanmobilizetheirbusesin50minutes.Busesusedfortransitdependentscanbemobilizedin120minutesexceptforNewberryCountywhocanmobilizetheirtransitbusesin60minutes.TransitbuseswillbedrawnfromtheCentralMidlandsRegionalTransitAuthorityfleetbaseduponmutualaidagreements.BusmobilizationtimeismeasuredfromtheAdvisorytoEvacuate(ATE)tothetimewhenbusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Duringthismobilizationperiod,othermobilizationactivitiesaretakingplace.Oneoftheseistheactiontakenbyparents,neighbors,relatives,andfriendstopickupchildrenfromschoolpriortothearrivalofbuses,sothattheymayjointheirfamilies.Virtuallyallstudiesofevacuationshaveconcludedthatthis"bonding"processofunitingfamilyunitsisuniversallyprevalentduringemergenciesandshouldbeanticipatedintheplanningprocess.ThecurrentemergencyplanninginformationdisseminatedtoresidentsoftheVirgilC.SummerNuclearStation'sEPZindicatesthatparentsshouldnotpickupchildrenatschool;rather,theyshouldpickupchildrenattheappropriatereceptioncenter.Pickingupchildrenatschoolcouldaddtotrafficcongestionattheschools,delayingthedepartureofthebusesevacuatingschoolchildren.Theestimatesofbusespresentedhereinaredevelopedundertheassumptionthatnochildrenwillbepickedupbytheirparents(inaccordancewithNUREG/CR7002),topresentanupperboundestimateofbusesrequired.ItisassumedthatchildrenatdaycarecentersarepickedupbyparentsorguardiansandthatthetimetoperformthisactivityiscapturedinthetripgenerationtimesdiscussedinSection5.Theprocedureis:* Estimatedemandfortransitservice EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation82KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5* Estimatetimetoperformalltransitfunctions* EstimateroutetraveltimestotheEPZboundaryandtotheschoolreceptioncenters8.1 TransitDependentPeopleDemandEstimateThetelephonesurvey(seeAppendixF)resultswereusedtoestimatetheportionofthepopulationrequiringtransitservice:* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdonothaveavehicleavailable* Thosepersonsinhouseholdsthatdohavevehicle(s)thatwouldnotbeavailableatthetimetheevacuationisadvisedInthelattergroup,thevehicle(s)maybeusedbyacommuter(s)whodoesnotreturn(orisnotexpectedtoreturn)hometoevacuatethehousehold.Table81presentsestimatesoftransitdependentpeople.Note:* Estimatesofpersonsrequiringtransitvehiclesincludeschoolchildren.Forthoseevacuationscenarioswherechildrenareatschoolwhenanevacuationisordered,separatetransportationisprovidedfortheschoolchildren.Theactualneedfortransitvehiclesbyresidentsistherebylessthanthegivenestimatesiftheaccidentoccurswhileschoolisinsession.* Itisreasonableandappropriatetoconsiderthatmanytransitdependentpersonswillevacuatebyridesharingwithneighbors,friends,orfamily.Forexample,nearly80percentofthosewhoevacuatedfromMississauga,Ontariowhodidnotusetheirowncars,sharedaridewithneighborsorfriends.Otherdocumentsreportthatapproximately70percentoftransitdependentpersonswereevacuatedviaridesharing.Wewilladoptaconservativeestimatethat50percentoftransitdependentpersonswillrideshare,inaccordancewithNUREG/CR7002.Theestimatednumberofbustripsneededtoservicetransitdependentpersonsisbasedonanestimateofaveragebusoccupancyof30personsattheconclusionofthebusrun.Transitvehicleseatingcapacitiestypicallyequalorexceed60children(roughlyequivalentto40adults).Iftransitvehicleevacueesaretwothirdsadultsandonethirdchildren,thenthenumberof"adultseats"takenby30personsis20+(2/3x10)=27.Onthisbasis,theaverageloadfactoranticipatedis(27/40)x100=68percent,Thus,iftheactualdemandforserviceexceedstheestimatesofTable81by50percent,thedemandforservicecanstillbeaccommodatedbytheavailablebusseatingcapacity.Table81indicatesthattransportationmustbeprovidedfor265people.Therefore,atotalof9busrunsarerequiredtotransportthispopulationtoreceptioncenters.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation83KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Toillustratethisestimationprocedure,wecalculatethenumberofpersons,P,requiringpublictransitorrideshare,andthenumberofbuses,B,requiredfortheVCSNSSiteEPZ:Where,A=Percentofhouseholdswithivehicles,withcommutersC=Percentofhouseholdswithivehicles,whowillnotawaitthereturnofacommuter Thesecalculationsareexplainedasfollows:* Allmembers(1.38avg.)ofhouseholds(HH)withnovehicles(4.8%)willevacuatebypublictransitorrideshare.Theterm5,289(numberofhouseholds)x0.048x1.38,accountsforthesepeople.* ThemembersofHHwith1vehicleaway(22.5%),whoareathome,equal(1.81).ThenumberofHHwherethecommuterwillnotreturnhomeisequalto(5,289x0.225x0.67x0.22),as67%ofEPZhouseholdshaveacommuter,22%ofwhichwouldnotreturnhomeintheeventofanemergency.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorrideshareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms.* ThemembersofHHwith2vehiclesthatareaway(38.5%),whoareathome,equal(2.86-2).ThenumberofHHwhereneithercommuterwillreturnhomeisequalto5,289x0.385x(0.67x0.22)2.Thenumberofpersonswhowillevacuatebypublictransitorrideshareisequaltotheproductofthesetwoterms(thelasttermissquaredtorepresenttheprobabilitythatneithercommuterwillreturn).* Householdswith3ormorevehiclesareassumedtohavenoneedfortransitvehicles.* ThetotalnumberofpersonsrequiringpublictransitisthesumofsuchpeopleinHHwithnovehicles,orwith1or2vehiclesthatareawayfromhome.TheestimateoftransitdependentpopulationinTable81farexceedsthenumberofregisteredtransitdependentpersonsintheEPZasprovidedbythecounties(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ThisisconsistentwiththefindingsofNUREG/CR6953,Volume2,inthatalargemajorityofthetransitdependentpopulationwithintheEPZsofU.S.nuclearplantsdoesnotregisterwiththeirlocalemergencyresponseagency.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation84KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.58.2 SchoolPopulation-TransitDemandTable82presentstheschoolpopulationandtransportationrequirementsforthedirectevacuationofallschoolswithintheEPZforthe20102011schoolyear.Thisinformationwasprovidedbylocalcountyemergencymanagementagencies.ThecolumninTable82entitled"BusRunsRequired"specifiesthenumberofbusesrequiredforeachschoolunderthefollowingsetofassumptionsandestimates:* Nostudentswillbepickedupbytheirparentspriortothearrivalofthebuses* AllhighschoolstudentsexceptthoseinChapinHighSchoolwilluseschoolbusestoevacuate.DiscussionswithChapinHighSchoolofficialsindicatetheywouldpermitstudentswhodrivetoschooltoevacuateusingtheirpersonalvehicles.ThisapproachconformstothatcitedinSection2.4ofNUREG/CR7002* Buscapacity,expressedinstudentsperbus,issetto70forprimaryschoolsand50formiddleandhighschools* Thosestaffmemberswhodonotaccompanythestudentswillevacuateintheirprivatevehicles* Noallowanceismadeforstudentabsenteeism,typically3percentdailyItisrecommendedthatthecountiesintheEPZintroduceprocedureswherebytheschoolsarecontactedpriortothedispatchofbusesfromthedepot(approximatelyonehouraftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateformostschools),toascertainthecurrentestimateofstudentstobeevacuated.Inthisway,thenumberofbusesdispatchedtotheschoolswillreflecttheactualnumberneeded.Thosebusesoriginallyallocatedtoevacuateschoolchildrenthatarenotneededduetochildrenbeingabsentorpickedupbytheirparents,canbegainfullyassignedtoserviceotherfacilitiesorthosepersonswhodonothaveaccesstoprivatevehiclesortoridesharing.Table83presentsalistofthereceptioncentersforeachschoolintheEPZ.Studentswillbetransportedtothesecenterswheretheywillbesubsequentlyretrievedbytheirrespectivefamilies.8.3 SpecialFacilityDemandTable84presentsthecensusofspecialfacilitiesintheEPZ.Approximately320peoplehavebeenidentifiedaslivingin,orbeingtreatedinthesefacilities.Thecapacityandcurrentcensusforeachfacilitywereprovidedbyrepresentativesfromeachfacility.Thiscensusalsoindicatesthenumberofambulatory,wheelchairbound,andbedriddenpeopleateachfacility.ThetransportationrequirementsforthesefacilitiesarealsopresentedinTable84.Thenumberofambulancerunsisdeterminedbyassumingthat2patientscanbeaccommodate dperambulancetrip;thenumberofwheelchairvanrunsassumes4wheelchairspertrip;thenumberofwheelchairbusrunsassumes15wheelchairspertrip,andthenumberofbusrunsestimatedassumes30ambulatorypatientspertrip.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation85KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.58.4 EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitDependentPeopleEPZbusresourcesareassignedtoevacuatingschoolchildren(ifschoolisinsessionatthetimeoftheATE)asthefirstpriorityintheeventofanemergency.Intheeventthattheallocationofbusesdispatchedfromthedepotstothevariousfacilitiesandtothebusroutesissomewhat"inefficient",orifthereisashortfallofavailabledrivers,thentheremaybeaneedforsomebusestoreturntotheEPZfromthereceptioncenteraftercompletingtheirfirstevacuationtrip,tocompletea"secondwave"ofprovidingtransportservicetoevacuees.Forthisreason,theETEforthetransitdependentpopulationwillbecalculatedforbothaonewavetransitevacuationandfortwowaves.Ofcourse,iftheimpactedEvacuationRegionisotherthanR03(theentireEPZ),thentherewilllikelybeampletransitresourcesrelativetodemandintheimpactedRegionandtheETEcalculatedforasecondwavewouldlikelynotapply.Whenschoolevacuationneedsaresatisfied,subsequentassignmentsofbusestoservicethetransitdependentshouldbesensitivetotheirmobilizationtime.Clearly,thebusesshouldbedispatchedafterpeoplehavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivitiesandareinpositiontoboardthebuseswhentheyarriveatthepickuppoints.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTransitTripsweredevelopedusingbothgoodweatherandadverseweatherconditions.Figure81presentsthechronologyofeventsrelevanttotransitoperations.TheelapsedtimeforeachactivitywillnowbediscussedwithreferencetoFigure81.Activity:MobilizeDrivers(ABC)DrivermobilizationistheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthetimethebusesarriveatthefacilitytobeevacuated.Asdiscussedabove,informationprovidedbyFairfieldandRichlandCountiesindicatesthatforarapidlyescalatingradiologicalemergencywithnoobservableindicationbeforethefact,busdriverswouldlikelyrequire90minutestobecontacted,totraveltothedepot,bebriefed,andtotraveltotheschoolstobeevacuated,and120minutesforthetransitdependentbusroutes.NewberryCountywouldalsorequire90minutesforschools,butonly60minutesfortransitdependentbusroutes;LexingtonCounty-50minutesforschools,120minutesfortransitdependentbusroutes.Activity:BoardPassengers(CD)Basedondiscussionswithoffsiteagencies,aloadingtimeof5minutes(10minutesforrainand15minutesforice)forschoolbusesisused.Formultiplestopsalongapickuproute(transitdependentbusroutes),allowanceismadefortheadditionaltimeassociatedwithstopping,starting,andboardingpassengersateachpickuppoint.Thetime,t,requiredforabustodecelerateatarate,"a",expressedinft/sec/sec,fromaspeed,"v",expressedinft/sec,toastop,ist=v/a.Assumingthesameaccelerationrateandfinalspeedfollowingthestopyieldsatotaltime,T,toserviceboardingpassengers:,whereB=Dwelltimetoserviceboardingpassengers.Thetotaldistance,"s"infeet,travelledduringthedecelerationandaccelerationactivitiesis:

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation86KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5s=v2/a.Ifthebushadnotstoppedtoservicepassengers,buthadcontinuedtotravelatspeed,v,thenitstraveltimeoverthedistance,s,wouldbe:s/v,or(v2/a)/v=v/a.Thenthetotaldelay(i.e.pickuptime,P)toservicepassengersis:

Assigningreasonableestimates:* B=50seconds:agenerousvalueforasinglepassenger,carryingpersonalitems,toboardperstop* v=25mph=37ft/sec* a=4ft/sec/sec,amoderateaveragerateThen,P1minuteperstop.Allowing30minutespickuptimeperbusrunimplies30stopsperrun(onepassengerperstop),forgoodweather.Itisassumedthatbusaccelerationandspeed,aswellasloadingtime,willbelessinrainandiceconditions;totalloadingtimeforrainis40minutes,50minutesforiceconditions.Activity:TraveltoEPZBoundary(DE)SchoolEvacuationTransportationresourcesavailablewereprovidedbytheEPZcountyemergencymanagementagenciesandaresummarizedinTable85.Alsoincludedinthetablearethenumberofbusesneededtoevacuatemedicalfacilities,transitdependentpopulation,andhomeboundspecialneeds(discussedbelowinSection8.5).ComparisonoftheavailablebusresourcesinTable85withthenumberofbusesneededshowninTable82indicatesthatNewberryCountySchoolDistrictdoesnothavesufficientresourcestoevacuateschoolchildreninasinglewave.However,itwasconfirmedwithNewberryCountyOfficialsthatMutualAidAgreements(MAA)withschoolsoutsideoftheEPZexisttohelpevacuatethestudentsinasinglewave.ThebusesservicingtheschoolsinFairfield,Newberry,andRichlandCountiesarereadytobegintheirevacuationtripsat95minutesaftertheadvisorytoevacuate-90minutesmobilizationtimeplus5minutesloadingtime.LexingtonCountyhaspracticedbusmobilizationandconfirmedthatbuseswillarriveattheschoolwithin50minutes,thustheirroutestarttimeis55minutes.TheUNITESsoftwarediscussedinSection1.3wasusedtodefinebusroutesalongthemostlikelypathtotheEPZboundaryfromaschoolbeingevacuated,travelingtowardtheappropriatereceptioncenter.ThisisdoneinUNITESbyinteractivelyselectingthesequenceofnodesfromtheschooltotheEPZboundary.ThebusrouteisgivenanidentificationnumberandiswrittentotheDYNEVIIinputstream.DYNEVIIcomputestheroutelengthandoutputstheaveragespeedforeach5minuteintervaloverthedurationoftheevacuation,foreachbusroute.ThebusroutesinputaredocumentedinTable86(refertothemapsofthelinknodeanalysisnetworkinAppendixKfornodelocations).Datafrom95minutes(55minutesfor EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation87KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5LexingtonCounty)aftertheadvisorytoevacuatewereused.TheaveragespeedalongtherouteusingthedatageneratedbyDYNEVIIwascomputedasfollows:Theaveragespeedcomputed(usingthismethodology)forthebusesservicingeachoftheschoolsintheEPZisshowninTable87throughTable89(goodweather,rain,ice),andinTable811throughTable813(goodweather,rain,ice)forthetransitvehiclesevacuatingtransitdependentpersons,whicharediscussedlater.ThetraveltimetotheEPZboundarywascomputedforeachbususingthecomputedaveragespeedandthedistancetotheEPZboundaryalongthemostlikelyrouteoutoftheEPZ.ThetraveltimefromtheEPZboundarytotheReceptionCenterwascomputedassuminganaveragespeedof45mph,40mph,and35mphforgoodweather,rain,andicerespectively.SpeedswerereducedinTable87throughTable89andinTable811throughTable813to45mph,40mph,and35mph(goodweather,rainandice,respectively)forthosecalculatedbusspeedswhichexceed45mph(40-rain,35-ice),toconformtostateschoolbusspeedlimits.Table87(goodweather),Table88(rain),andTable89(ice)presentthefollowingevacuationtimeestimates(roundeduptothenearest5minutes)forschoolsintheEPZ:(1)TheelapsedtimefromtheAdvisorytoEvacuateuntilthebusexitstheEPZ;and(2)TheelapsedtimeuntilthebusreachestheSchoolReceptionCenter.TheevacuationtimeoutoftheEPZcanbecomputedasthesumoftraveltimesassociatedwithActivitiesABC,CD,andDE(Forexample:90min.+5+3=1:40forKellyMillerElementarySchool,withgoodweather,roundeduptothenearest5minutes).TheevacuationtimetotheReceptionCenterisdeterminedbyaddingthetimeassociatedwithActivityEF(discussedbelow),tothisEPZevacuaonme.EvacuationofTransitDependentPopulationThebusesdispatchedfromthedepotstoservicethetransitdependentevacueeswillbescheduledsothattheyarriveattheirrespectiveroutesaftertheirpassengershavecompletedtheirmobilization.AsshowninFigure54(ResidentswithoutCommuters),approximately90percentoftheevacueeswillcompletetheirmobilizationwhenthebuseswillbegintheirroutes,approximately120minutesforallcountiesexceptNewberryCountyaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Notethatonlyapproximately65percentofevacueeshavemobilizedwhenbusesbeginroutesinNewberryCounty,60minutesaftertheATE.ThosetransitdependentsinNewberryCountynotservicedbythefirstwaveoftransitdependentbuseswillbepickedupbythesecondwavebuseswhicharrivelater.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation88KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Thosebusesservicingthetransitdependentevacueeswillfirsttravelalongtheirpickuproutes,thenproceedoutoftheEPZ.BuseswilltravelalongthemajorroutesintheEPZasdescribedinTable810andshowngraphicallyinFigure82.ThebusrouteforRichlandCountywasprovidedtoKLDbyemergencymanagementrepresentatives.ThebusroutesfortheremainingthreecountiesweredesignedbyKLDtoservicethemajorroutesthrougheachPAZ.Residentswillwalktoandcongregateatthesepredesignatedevacuationroutes,accordingtothecountyemergencyplans.Itisassumedthattheycanarriveatthestopswithinthe120minutemobilizationtime(goodweather)forbuses,60minutesforNewberryCounty.ThereisonebusrouteeachforRichland,Fairfield,andLexingtonCounties;tworoutesareconsideredforNewberryCounty.EachroutehastwoassignedbusesexceptforRoute15(SeeTable810)whichwasassignedasinglebus.Routeswithtwobusesfollowthesamepathwithaheadwayof20minutesbetweenbusesforpeoplewhomobilizemoreslowly,asshowninTable811.Aspreviouslydiscussed,apickuptimeof30minutesisestimatedfor30individualstopstopickuppassengers,withanaveragedelayofoneminuteassociatedwitheachstop.Anincreaseisappliedforrainandiceconditions.ThetraveldistancealongtherespectivepickuprouteswithintheEPZisestimatedusingtheUNITESsoftware.BustraveltimeswithintheEPZarecomputedusingaveragespeedscomputedbyDYNEVII,usingtheaforementi onedmethodologythatwasusedforschoolevacuation.Table811,Table812,andTable813presentthetransitdependentpopulationevacuationtimeestimatesforeachbusroutecalculatedusingtheaboveproceduresforgoodweather,rain,andicerespectively.Forexample,theETEfortheRichlandCountyTransitDependentBusRouteiscomputedas120+48+30=3:20forgoodweather(roundedtonearest5minutes).Here,48minutesisthetimetotravel36.2milesat45mph,theaveragespeedoutputbythemodelforthisrouteat120minutes.TheETEforasecondwave(discussedbelow)ispresentedintheeventthereisashortfallofavailablebusesorbusdriversandtoservicethosepeoplewhomobilizeinmorethan120minutesforLexington,Richland,andFairfieldCountyor60minutesforNewberryCounty.Activity:TraveltoReceptionCenters(EF)ThedistancesfromtheEPZboundarytothereceptioncentersaremeasuredusingGeographicalInformationSystems(GIS)softwarealongthemostlikelyroutefromtheEPZtothereceptioncenter.ThereceptioncentersaremappedinFigure101.Foraonewaveevacuation,thistraveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesnotcontributetotheETE.Foratwowaveevacuation,traveltimeoutsidetheEPZdoesneedtobeconsidered.Assumedbusspeedsof45mph,40mph,and35mphforgoodweather,rain,andice,respectively,willbeappliedforthisactivityforbusesservicingthetransitdependentpopulation.Activity:PassengersLeaveBus(FG)Abuscanemptywithin5minutes.Thedrivertakesa10minutebreak.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation89KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Activity:BusReturnstoRouteforSecondWaveEvacuation(GC)ThebusesassignedtoreturntotheEPZtoperforma"secondwave"evacuationoftransitdependentevacueeswillbethosethathavealreadyevacuatedtransitdependentpeoplewhomobilizedmorequickly.Thefirstwaveoftransitdependentpeopledepartthebus,andthebusthenreturnstotheEPZ,travelstoitsrouteandproceedstopickupmoretransitdependentevacueesalongtheroute.ThetraveltimebacktotheEPZboundaryisequaltothetraveltimetothereceptioncenter.ThesecondwaveETEfortheRichlandCountyTransitDependentbusrouteiscomputedasfollowsforgoodweather:* Busarrivesatreceptioncenterat3:35(3:20ETEtoexitEPZ+15minutetraveltimetoreceptioncenter)ingoodweather* Busdischargespassengers(5minutes)anddrivertakesa10minuterest:15minutes* BusreturnstoEPZandcompletesasecondroute:15minutes(SametimeasTravelTimetoReceptionCenter)+48minutes(36.2miles@45mph)=63minutes* Buscompletespickupsalongroute:30minutes* BusexitsEPZattime3:20+0:15+0:15+0:15+0:48+0:30=5:25(roundedtonearest5minutes)aftertheAdvisorytoEvacuateTheETEforthecompletionofthesecondwaveforalltransitdependentbusroutesareprovidedinTable811throughTable813.TheaverageETEfortheevacuationoftransitdependentpeopleexceedstheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90thpercentile.Anysubsequentrelocationoftransitdependentevacueesfromthereceptioncenterstocongregatecarecentersisnotconsideredinthisstudy.EvacuationofPersonsfromSpecialFacilitiesThebusoperationsforthisgrouparesimilartothoseforschoolevacuationexcept:* Busesareassignedonthebasisof30patientstoallowforstafftoaccompanythepatients* ThepassengerloadingtimewillbelongeratapproximatelyoneminuteperpatienttoaccountforthetimetomovepatientsfrominsidethefacilitytothevehiclesTable84indicatesthat1busrun,1wheelchairbusrun,and2ambulancerunsareneededtoservicealloftheonlymedicalfacilityintheEPZ.AccordingtoTable85,thecountiescancollectivelyprovide136buses,3vans,and25wheelchairaccessiblebuses.Thus,therearesufficientresourcestoevacuatethe60patientsatGenerationsofChapininasinglewave.Itisassumedthatmobilizationtimeis90minutesforthisfacility.Speciallytrainedmedicalsupportstaff(workingtheirregularshift)willbeonsitetoassistintheevacuationofpatients.Additionalstaff(ifneeded)couldbemobilizedoverthissame90minutetimeframe.BasedonthelocationofGenerationsofChapininFigureE2,itisestimatedabuswillhavetotravel3miles,onaverage,toleavetheEPZ.Theaveragespeedoutputbythemodelat90minutesforRegion3,Scenario1is60.39mph(cappedat45mphforgoodweather;40mphforrain;35mphforice)Thus,traveltimeoutoftheEPZisapproximately4minutesforgood EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation810KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5weather,5minutesforrainandice.TheETEforthebusevacuatingambulatorypatientsatthefacilityisthesumofthemobilizationtime,totalpassengerloadingtime,andtraveltimeoutoftheEPZ.ThecalculationofETEforGenerationsofChapinwith30ambulatoryresidentsis(roundeduptothenearest5minutes):ETE:90+30x1+4=124min.or2:05RainETE:100+30x1+5=2:15IceETE:110+30x1+5=2:25TheETEforbusesevacuatingwheelchairboundpatientsatthefacilityassumesaloadingtimeof5minutesperwheelchairboundpersonasstaffwillhavetoassisttheminboardingthebus.TheETEforthewheelchairboundatGenerationsofChapinwith15wheelchairboundpatientsis(roundedtothenearest5minutes)(assumingconcurrentloadingonmultiplebuseswithacapacityof15patients):ETE:90+15x5+4=2:50RainETE:100+15x5+5=3:00IceETE:110+15x5+5=3:10TheETEforambulancesevacuatingbedriddenpatientsatthefacilityassumes15minutesloadingtimeperbedriddenpersonasstaffwillhavetoassisttheminboardinganambulance.TheETEforthebedriddenpatientsatGenerationsofChapinwith3bedriddenpatientsis(roundedtothenearest5minutes)(assumingconcurrentloadingonmultipleambulanceswithacapacityof2patients):ETE:90+2x15+4=2:05RainETE:100+2x15+5=2:15IceETE:110+2x15+5=2:25Aspreviouslydiscussed,thereareenoughtransportationresourcestoevacuatethepatientsfromGenerationsofChapininasinglewave.Intheeventasecondwaveisneeded,thehostfacilityislocatednearColumbiaorinNewberry.Theroutetothehostfacilityis20milesandrequires27minutesoftravelingoodweather(30-rain,35minutesice),30minutestounloadbothpassengersathostfacility,27minutes(30-rain,35ice)totravelbacktotheoriginalmedicalfacility,aloadingtimeof15minutesperbedriddenperson(2perambulance)andatraveltimeof5minutestoleavetheEPZonthesecondwave,yields:SecondWaveETE:2:05+0:27+0:30+0:27+0:30+0:05=4:05(roundedtothenearest5minutes)RainETE:2:15+0:30+0:30+0:30+0:30+0:05=4:20IceETE:2:25+0:35+0:30+0:35+0:30+0:05=4:40 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation811KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Itisassumedthatspecialfacilitypopulationisdirectlyevacuatedtoappropriatehostmedicalfacilities.Relocationofthispopulationtopermanentfacilitiesand/orpassingthroughthereceptioncenterbeforearrivingatthehostfacilityisnotconsideredinthisanalysis.8.5 SpecialNeedsPopulationBasedondataprovidedbythecountyemergencymanagementagencies,thereareanestimated185homeboundspecialneedspeoplewithintheVCSNSEPZ.Ofthesepeople,83requirespecialtransportationtoevacuate.Atotalof17peoplearebedriddenandrequireanambulancetoevacuate,totaling9ambulances.Thereare38wheelchairboundhomeboundspecialneedspeoplewhorequirewheelchairvanstoevacuate,totaling3wheelchairbuses.Twentyeightofthehomeboundspecialneedspeopleareambulatory,requiringonly1bustoaccommodatethesepeople(althoughadditionalbuseswillbeused-seebelow).ETEforHomeboundSpecialNeedsPersonsWheelchairVansSection8.3identifiesawheelchairvancapacityof4wheelchairspertrip;therefore10wheelchairvansareneededforthese38people.However,asnotedinTable85,therearelimitedresourcesforwheelchairvansandasurplusofwheelchairbuses.Thus,wheelchairbuseswillbeusedtoevacuatethese38people.Itisassumedthat10buseswilleachservice4households(HH).Itisfurtherassumedthatthehouseholdsarespaced3milesapart,andthatvanspeedsapproximate30mphbetweenhouseholdsingoodweather(10%slowerinrain,20%slowerinice).Thelasthouseholdisassumedtobe5milesfromtheEPZboundary,andspeedsof45,40,and35mphareusedforgoodweather,rainandice,respectively.AllETEareroundedtothenearest5minutes.a. Assumedmobilizationtimeforwheelchairbusresourcestoarriveatfirsthousehold:90minutes(100minutesinrain;110minutesinice)b. Loadingtimeatfirsthousehold:5minutes(asdiscussedaboveinSection8.4)c. Traveltimetosubsequenthouseholds:3@6minutes(3miles@30mph;27mphinrain;24mphinice)=18minutes(20minutesinrain;22minutesinice)d. Loadingtimeatsubsequenthouseholds:3@5minutes=15minutese. TraveltimetoEPZ5miles@45mph(10%slower,41mphinrain;36mphinice)=7minutes(8inrain;9minutesinice)ETE:90+5+18+15+7=2:15RainETE:100+5+20+15+8=2:30IceETE:110+5+22+15+9=2:40Fromacapacityperspective(15wheelchairsperbus),fewerbusescouldhavebeenused.However,buseswouldhavetomakeadditionalstopsresultinginprolongedETE.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation812KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5BusesAssumingnomorethanonespecialneedspersonperhouseholdimpliesthat28householdsneedtobeserviced.Whileonly1busisneededfromacapacityperspective,if4busesaredeployedtoservicethesespecialneedsHH,theneachwouldrequireabout7stops.ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculations:1. Assume4busesaredeployed,eachwithabout7stops,toserviceatotalof28HH2. TheETEiscalculatedasfollows:a. Busesarriveatthefirstpickuplocation:90minutesb. LoadHHmembersatfirstpickup:5minutesc. Traveltosubsequentpickuplocations:6@6minutes=36minutesd. LoadHHmembersatsubsequentpickuplocations:6@5minutes=30minutese. TraveltoEPZboundary(assume5milesat45mph):7minutes.ETE:90+5+36+30+7=2:50RainETE:100+5+42+30+8=3:05IceETE:110+5+48+30+9=3:10Ifplannedproperly,thepickuplocationsforeachbusrunshouldbeclusteredwithinthesamegeneralarea;itisassumedthatstopsare3milesapart.Theestimatedtraveltimebetweenpickupsis6minutes(7minutesinrain;8minutesinice);totheEPZboundaryisbasedonadistanceof5miles@45mph=7minutes(8minutesinrain;9minutesinice).Itisassumedthatmobilizationtimetofirstpickupis10minuteslongerinrain=100minutes(110minutesinice).AllETEareroundedtonearest5minutes.AssumingallHHmembers(avg.HHsizeequals2.68persons)travelwiththedisabledpersonyields7x2.68=19personsperbus,wellwithinbuscapacity.AmbulancesItisestimatedthat9ambulanceswillbeneededtoevacuatethe17homeboundbedriddenpersonswithintheEPZ.DiscussionswithemergencymanagementpersonnelforNewberry,Lexington,Fairfield,andRichlandCountiesindicatedthattherearesufficientambulanceresourcesavailabletoevacuatetheinstitutionalizedandhomeboundbedriddenpopulationsinasinglewaveusingMutualAidAgreements.Mobilizationtimeisassumedtobe60minutestothefirsthome.Eachambulanceservicingthehomeboundbedriddenpopulationwillmake2stopswithanestimatedseparationdistanceof5milesandanestimateddistanceof5milestotheEPZboundaryafterthesecondstop.Loadingtimeperstopisestimatedat15minutes.Itisassumedthatambulanceswilltravelat40mphbetweenhouseholds,giventheabsenceofcongestionwithintheEPZ.Mobilizationtimeis5minuteslongerinrainandtravelspeedis10%lessinrain-36mph,anadditional5minuteslongerand10%lessinice-32mph.AllETEareroundedtonearest5minutes.TheETEarecomputedasfollows:

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation813KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5a. Ambulancearrivesatfirsthousehold:60minutes(someambulancesarecomingfromneighboringcountiesthroughmutualaid;thus,theymustdriveagreaterdistance)b. Loadingtimeatfirsthousehold:15minutesc. Ambulancetravelstosecondhousehold:5miles@40mph=8minutesd. Loadingtimeatsecondhousehold:15minutese. TraveltimetoEPZboundary:5miles@40mph=8minutesETE:60+15+8+15+8=1:45RainETE:65+15+9+15+9=1:55IceETE:70+15+10+15+10=2:00ThefollowingoutlinestheETEcalculationsifasecondwaveisneeded:a. TraveltohostfacilityfromEPZboundary:20miles@45mphandrequires27minutesoftravelingoodweather(30minutesinrain;35minutesinice)b. Unloadpassengersathostfacility:30minutesc. TraveltimebacktoEPZ:20miles@45mphandrequires27minutesoftravelingoodweather(30minutesinrain;35minutesinice)d. Loadingtimeatfirsthousehold:15minutese. Ambulancetravelstosecondhousehold:5miles@40mph=8minutes(9minutesinrain;10minutesinice)f. Loadingtimeatsecondhousehold:15minutesg. TraveltimetoEPZboundary:5miles@40.0mph=8minutes(9minutesinrain;10minutesinice)ETE:1:45+0:27+0:30+0:27+0:15+0:08+0:15+0:08=3:55RainETE:1:55+0:30+0:30+0:30+0:15+0:09+0:15+0:09=4:15IceETE:2:00+0:35+0:30+0:35+0:15+0:10+0:15+0:10=4:30 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation814KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5EventAAdvisorytoEvacuateBBusDispatchedfromDepotCBusArrivesatFacility/PickupRouteDBusDepartsforReceptionCenterEBusExitsRegionFBusArrivesatReceptionCenterGBusAvailablefor"SecondWave"EvacuationServiceActivityABDriverMobilization BCTraveltoFacilityortoPickupRouteCDPassengersBoardtheBusDEBusTravelsTowardsRegionBoundaryEFBusTravelsTowardsReceptionCenterOutsidetheEPZFGPassengersLeaveBus;DriverTakesaBreakFigure81.ChronologyofTransitEvacuationOperationsABCDEFGTime(SubsequentWave)

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation815KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure82.TransitDependentBusRoutes EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation816KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table81.TransitDependentPopulationEstimates2010EPZPopulationSurveyAverageHHSizewithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesEstimated No.ofHouseholds SurveyPercentHHwithIndicatedNo.ofVehiclesSurveyPercentHHwithCommuters SurveyPercentHHwithNonReturningCommuters TotalPeopleRequiringTransportEstimatedRidesharingPercentagePeopleRequiring PublicTransitPercentPopulationRequiringPublicTransit01201214,1751.381.802.865,2894.8%22.5%38.5%67%22%52950%2651.9%

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation817KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table82.SchoolPopulationDemandEstimatesPAZSchoolNameMunicipalityEnrollmentStaffBusRunsRequiredFAIRFIELDCOUNTYSCHOOLSA2McCroreyListonElementarySchoolBlair219374C2KellyMillerElementarySchoolWinnsboro270504FairfieldCountyTotal:489878LEXINGTONCOUNTYSCHOOLSD2AbnerMontessoriSchoolChapin116202D2AlternativeAcademyChapin120173D2ChapinElementarySchoolChapin84510513D2ChapinHighSchool1Chapin1,29315616D2ChapinMiddleSchoolChapin1,10012222D2CrookedCreekParkAfterSchoolProgram2Chapin100202LexingtonCountyTotal:3,47442056NEWBERRYCOUNTYSCHOOLSE2LittleMountainElementaryLittleMountain373406E2MidCarolinaHighSchoolProsperity6998714E2MidCarolinaMiddleSchoolProsperity6007512F2PomariaGarmanyElementarySchoolPomaria392506NewberryCountyTotal:2,06425238EPZTotal:6,027759102Notes:1500StudentsdrivetoChapinHighSchool.Discussionwithhighschoolofficialsindicatetheywouldpermitstudentstoevacuatetheschoolusingtheirpersonalvehicles.Only793studentsrequiretransportation(withonewheelchairboundstudent).2Studentsatthisfacilityarepreviouslycountedattheneighboringschools;therefore,theyhavenotbeenincludedinthecountyorEPZtotals.Also,Childrenareatthisprogramonlywhenallotherschoolsarenotinsession;therefore,thebusesneededforthisfacilityhavenotbeenincludedinthecountyorEPZtotals.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation818KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table83.SchoolReceptionCentersSchoolPAZReceptionCenterMcCroreyListonElementarySchoolA2WhiteOakConferenceCenterKellyMillerElementarySchoolC2AbnerMontessoriSchoolD2CrossroadsMiddleSchoolAlternativeAcademyD2ChapinElementarySchoolD2ChapinHighSchoolD2ChapinMiddleSchoolD2CrookedCreekParkAfterSchoolProgramD2LittleMountainElementarySchoolE2NewberryHighSchoolMidCarolinaHighSchoolE2MidCarolinaMiddleSchoolE2PomariaGarmanyElementaryF2 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation819KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table84.SpecialFacilityTransitDemandPAZFacilityNameMunicipality CapacityCurrentCensusAmbulatoryWheelchairBoundBedriddenAmbulanceRunsWheelchairBusRunsWheelchairVanRunsBusRunsLEXINGTONCOUNTYMEDICIALFACILITIES D2GenerationsofChapinChapin6460301532101Totals:6460301532101 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation820KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table85.SummaryofTransportationResourcesTransportationResourceBusesVansWheelchairBusesWheelchairVansAmbulances ResourcesAvailableLexingtonCountySchoolDistrict10025NewberryCountySchoolDistrict26KellyMillerElementarySchool6McCroreyListonElementarySchool4GenerationsofChapin3FairfieldMemorialHospital9MedshoreAmbulance(throughmutualaid)337TOTAL:136325346ResourcesNeededSchools(Table82):102MedicalFacilities(Table84):112TransitDependentPopulation(Table810):9HomeboundSpecialNeeds(Section8.5):139TOTALTRANSPORTATIONNEEDS:113411 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation821KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table86.BusRouteDescriptionsBusRouteNumberDescriptionNodesTraversedfromRouteStarttoEPZBoundary1ChapinHighSchool&AbnerMontessoriSchoolEvacuationRoute278,277,276,273,274,376,3772ChapinMiddleSchoolEvacuationRoute702,230,229,228,6863KellyMillerElementarySchoolEvacuationRoute896,654,652,75,744McCroreyListonElementarySchoolEvacuationRoute95,96,97,98,99,114,115,116,117,118,119,120,121,122,123,124,125,25LittleMountainElementarySchoolEvacuationRoute239,284,283,876,298,877,282,301,371,370,305,304,369,3686MidCarolinaHigh&MiddleSchoolEvacuationRoute859,858,243,311,292,291,303,302,304,369,3687PomariaGarmanyElementarySchoolEvacuationRoute307,308,309,317,332,318,333,319,3208ChapinElementarySchoolEvacuationRoute702,230,229,228,6869CrookedCreekAfterschoolProgramEvacuationRoute702,230,229,228,68610AlternativeAcademyEvacuationRoute931,267,278,277,276,273,274,376,37711RichlandCountyTransitDependentBusRoute202,203,204,205,206,207,208,209,210,605,211,21212FairfieldCountyTransitDependentBusRoute1,3,33,34,35,803,482,483,484,485,486,487,488,489,480,49113LexingtonCountyTransitDependentBusRoute234,684,233,855,232,231,230,229,228,68614NewberryCountyTransitDependentBusRoute#1194,195,196,307,308,309,317,332,318,333,319,32015NewberryCountyTransitDependentBusRoute#2190,179,180,181,182,183,184,185,186,187,188,159,160,161,545,162,163

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation822KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table87.SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherSchoolDriverMobilizationTimeLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi.)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min.)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimeEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)FairfieldCounty,SCSchoolsMcCroreyListonElementarySchool9058.245.0111:5013.57192:05KellyMillerElementarySchool9051.441.031:4013.62192:00LexingtonCounty,SCSchoolsAbnerMontessoriSchool5054.445.061:059.75131:15AlternativeAcademy5055.145.071:059.75131:15ChapinElementarySchool5053.441.251:0010.40141:15ChapinHighSchool5054.445.061:059.75131:15ChapinMiddleSchool5052.641.241:0010.40141:15CrookedCreekParkAfterSchoolProgram*1552.844.240:2510.40140:40NewberryCounty,SCSchoolsLittleMountainElementarySchool9058.145.0111:505.8081:55MidCarolinaHighSchool9055.445.081:455.8081:55MidCarolinaMiddleSchool9055.445.081:455.8081:55PomariaGarmanyElementarySchool9054.645.071:454.9771:50MaximumforEPZ:1:50Maximum:2:05AverageforEPZ:1:26Average:1:37*Busesremainatthefacilitywhilestudentsareattheafterschoolprogram;therefore,ashortermobilizationtimeisappropriate.ETEisnotincludedinAverageforEPZasthisfacilityisonlyinusewhenallotherschoolsarenotinsession.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation823KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table88SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-RainSchoolDriverMobilizationTimeLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi.)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min.)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimeEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)FairfieldCounty,SCSchoolsMcCroreyListonElementarySchool100108.240.0132:0513.57212:25KellyMillerElementarySchool100101.437.931:5513.62212:15LexingtonCounty,SCSchoolsAbnerMontessoriSchool60104.440.071:209.75151:35AlternativeAcademy60105.140.081:209.75151:35ChapinElementarySchool60103.437.361:2010.40161:35ChapinHighSchool60104.440.071:209.75151:35ChapinMiddleSchool60102.637.351:1510.40161:35CrookedCreekParkAfterSchoolProgram*25102.838.250:4010.40161:00NewberryCounty,SCSchoolsLittleMountainElementarySchool100108.140.0132:055.8092:15MidCarolinaHighSchool100105.440.092:005.8092:10MidCarolinaMiddleSchool100105.440.092:005.8092:10PomariaGarmanyElementarySchool100104.640.072:004.9782:05MaximumforEPZ:2:05Maximum:2:25AverageforEPZ:1:41Average:1:55*Busesremainatthefacilitywhilestudentsareattheafterschoolprogram;therefore,ashortermobilizationtimeisappropriate.ETEisnotincludedinAverageforEPZasthisfacilityisonlyinusewhenallotherschoolsarenotinsession.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation824KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table89SchoolEvacuationTimeEstimates-IceSchoolDriverMobilizationTimeLoadingTime(min)Dist.ToEPZBdry(mi.)AverageSpeed(mph)TravelTimetoEPZBdry(min.)ETE(hr:min)Dist.EPZBdrytoR.C.(mi.)TravelTimeEPZBdrytoR.C.(min)ETEtoR.C.(hr:min)FairfieldCounty,SCSchoolsMcCroreyListonElementarySchool110158.235.0152:2013.57242:45KellyMillerElementarySchool110151.433.632:1013.62242:35LexingtonCounty,SCSchoolsAbnerMontessoriSchool70154.435.081:359.75171:50AlternativeAcademy70155.135.091:359.75171:55ChapinElementarySchool70153.434.661:3510.40181:50ChapinHighSchool70154.435.081:359.75171:50ChapinMiddleSchool70152.634.651:3010.40181:50CrookedCreekParkAfterSchoolProgram*35152.834.450:5510.40181:15NewberryCounty,SCSchoolsLittleMountainElementarySchool110158.135.0142:205.80102:30MidCarolinaHighSchool110155.435.0102:155.80102:25MidCarolinaMiddleSchool110155.435.0102:155.80102:25PomariaGarmanyElementarySchool110154.635.082:154.9792:25MaximumforEPZ:2:20Maximum:2:45AverageforEPZ:1:56Average:2:12*Busesremainatthefacilitywhilestudentsareattheafterschoolprogram;therefore,ashortermobilizationtimeisappropriate.ETEisnotincludedinAverageforEPZasthisfacilityisonlyinusewhenallotherschoolsarenotinsession.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation825KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table810SummaryofTransitDependentBusRoutesRouteNumberRouteNameNo.ofBusesRouteDescription RouteLengthwithinEPZ(mi.)11RichlandCountyBusRoute2RichlandCountyTransitDependentBusRoute36.212FairfieldCountyBusRoute2Route215inMonticelloSBtoRoute213EBtoSRS2048SBtoReservoirRdEBtoRionRdSBinRiontoRoute269NBtoUS321toWhiteOakConferenceCenter15.513LexingtonCountyBusRoute2US76EBinChapintoNWoodrowSttoCrossroadsMiddleSchool3.714NewberryCountyBusRoute#12Route202NBinLittleMountaintoUS176WBtoRoute219toNewberryHighSchool11.215NewberryCountyBusRoute#21CRS3628NBinPeaktoRoute34WBtoI26EBtoRoute219SBtoNewberryHighSchool15.5 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation826KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table811.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesGoodWeatherRouteNumberBusNumberOneWaveTwoWaveMobilizationRouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTimeETEDistancetoRecCtr(miles)TravelTimetoRec.CtrUnloadDriverRestRouteTravelTime(min)PickupTimeETE11112036.24548303:2011.31551063305:25214036.24548303:4011.31551063305:4512112015.54521302:5513.61851039304:35214015.54521303:1513.61851039304:551311203.7455302:3510.81451019303:5521403.7455302:5510.81451019304:151416011.24515301:455751022303:0028011.24515302:055751022303:201516015.54521301:5510.91551035303:30MaximumETE:3:40MaximumETE:5:45AverageETE:2:42AverageETE:4:17

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation827KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table812.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesRainRouteNumberBusNumberOneWaveTwoWaveMobilizationRouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTimeETEDistancetoRecCtr(miles)TravelTimetoRec.CtrUnloadDriverRestRouteTravelTime(min)PickupTimeETE11113036.24054403:4511.31751071406:10215036.24054404:0511.31751071406:3012113015.54023403:1513.62051044405:15215015.54023403:3513.62051044405:351311303.7406403:0010.81651022404:3021503.7406403:2010.81651022404:501417011.24017402:105851024403:3529011.24017402:305851024403:551517015.54023402:1510.91651040404:05MaximumETE:4:05MaximumETE:6:30AverageETE:3:06AverageETE:4:56 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation828KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table813.TransitDependentEvacuationTimeEstimatesIceRouteNumberBusNumberOneWaveTwoWaveMobilizationRouteLength(miles)Speed(mph)RouteTravelTime(min)PickupTimeETEDistancetoRecCtr(miles)TravelTimetoRec.CtrUnloadDriverRestRouteTravelTimePickupTimeETE11114036.23562504:1511.31951081507:00216036.23562504:3511.31951081507:2012114015.53527503:4013.62351050505:55216015.53527504:0013.62351050506:151311403.7356503:2010.81951025505:0521603.7356503:4010.81951025505:251418011.23519502:305951028504:15210011.23519502:505951028504:351518015.53527502:4010.91951045504:50MaximumETE:4:35MaximumETE:7:20AverageETE:3:30AverageETE:5:37 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation91KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.59 TRAFFICMANAGEMENTSTRATEGYThissectiondiscussesthesuggestedtrafficcontrolandmanagementstrategythatisdesignedtoexpeditethemovementofevacuatingtraffic.Theresourcesrequiredtoimplementthisstrategyinclude:* Personnelwiththecapabilitiesofperformingtheplannedcontrolfunctionsoftrafficguides(preferably,notnecessarily,lawenforcementofficers)* TrafficControlDevicestoassistthesepersonnelintheperformanceoftheirtasks.ThesedevicesshouldcomplywiththeguidanceoftheManualofUniformTrafficControlDevices(MUTCD)publishedbytheFederalHighwayAdministration(FHWA)oftheU.S.D.O.T.AllstateandmostcountytransportationagencieshaveaccesstotheMUTCD,whichisavailableonline:http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.govwhichprovidesaccesstotheofficialPDFversion* Aplanthatdefinesalllocations,providesnecessarydetailsandisdocumentedinaformatthatisreadilyunderstoodbythoseassignedtoperformtrafficcontrolThefunctionstobeperformedinthefieldare:1. FacilitateevacuatingtrafficmovementsthatsafelyexpeditetraveloutoftheEPZ2. Discouragetrafficmovementsthatmoveevacuatingvehiclesinadirectionwhichtakesthemsignificantlyclosertothepowerplant,orwhichinterfereswiththeefficientflowofotherevacueesWeemploytheterms"facilitate"and"discourage"ratherthan"enforce"and"prohibit"toindicatetheneedforflexibilityinperformingthetrafficcontrolfunction.Therearealwayslegitimatereasonsforadrivertopreferadirectionotherthanthatindicated.Forexample:* Adrivermaybetravelinghomefromworkorfromanotherlocation,tojoinotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuating* Anevacuatingdrivermaybetravellingtopickuparelative,orotherevacuees* ThedrivermaybeanemergencyworkerenroutetoperformanimportantactivityTheimplementationofaplanmustalsobeflexibleenoughfortheapplicationofsoundjudgmentbythetrafficguide.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation92KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Thetrafficmanagementplanistheoutcomeofthefollowingprocess:1. TheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesintheirexistingemergencyplansserveasthebasisofthetrafficmanagementplan,asperNUREG/CR70022. ComputeranalysisoftheevacuationtrafficflowenvironmentThisanalysisidentifiesthebestroutingandthosecriticalintersectionsthatexperiencepronouncedcongestion.AnycriticalintersectionsthatarenotidentifiedintheexistingoffsiteplansaresuggestedasadditionalTCPsandACPs3. Afieldsurveyofthehighwaynetworkwithin15milesofthepowerplant4. Consultationwithemergencymanagementandlawenforcementpersonnel5. PrioritizationofTCPsandACPsApplicationoftrafficandaccesscontrolatsomeTCPsandACPswillhaveamorepronouncedinfluenceonexpeditingtrafficmovementsthanatotherTCPsandACPs.Forexample,TCPscontrollingtrafficoriginatingfromareasincloseproximitytothepowerplantcouldhaveamorebeneficialeffectonminimizingpotentialexposuretoradioactivitythanthoseTCPslocatedfarfromthepowerplant.TheuseofIntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS)technologiescanreducemanpowerandequipmentneeds,whilestillfacilitatingtheevacuationprocess.DynamicMessageSigns(DMS)canbeplacedwithintheEPZtoprovideinformationtotravelersregardingtrafficconditions,routeselection,andreceptioncenterinformation.DMScanalsobeplacedoutsideoftheEPZtowarnmotoriststoavoidusingroutesthatmayconflictwiththeflowofevacueesawayfromthepowerplant.HighwayAdvisoryRadio(HAR)canbeusedtobroadcastinformationtoevacueesenroutethroughtheirvehiclestereosystems.AutomatedTravelerInformationSystems(ATIS)canalsobeusedtoprovideevacueeswithinformation.Internetwebsitescanprovidetrafficandevacuationrouteinformationbeforetheevacueebeginshistrip,whileonboardnavigationsystems(GPSunits),cellphones,andpagerscanbeusedtoprovideinformationenroute.TheseareonlyseveralexamplesofhowITStechnologiescanbenefittheevacuationprocess.ConsiderationshouldbegiventhatITStechnologiesbeusedtofacilitatetheevacuationprocess,andanyadditionalsignageplacedshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.TheETEanalysistreatedallintersectionsthatareexistingTCPlocationsintheoffsiteagencyplansasbeingcontrolledbyactuatedsignals.Chapters2Nand5G,andPart6ofthe2009MUTCDareparticularlyrelevantandshouldbereviewedduringemergencyresponsetraining.TheETEcalculationsreflecttheassumptionthatall"externalexternal"tripsareinterdictedanddivertedafter2hourshaveelapsedfromtheadvisorytoevacuate(ATE).AlltransitvehiclesandotherrespondersenteringtheEPZtosupporttheevacuationareassumedtobeunhinderedbypersonnelmanningACPsandTCPs.StudyAssumptions6and7inSection2.3discussACPandTCPstaffingschedulesandoperations.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation101KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.510 EVACUATIONROUTESEvacuationroutesarecomprisedoftwodistinctcomponents:* RoutingfromaProtectiveActionZone(PAZ)beingevacuatedtotheboundaryoftheEvacuationRegionandthenceoutoftheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)* RoutingoftransitdependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersEvacueeswillselectrouteswithintheEPZinsuchawayastominimizetheirexposuretorisk.ThisexpectationismetbytheDYNEVIImodelroutingtrafficawayfromthelocationoftheplant,totheextentpracticable.TheDTRADmodelsatisfiesthisbehaviorbyroutingtrafficsoastobalancetrafficdemandrelativetotheavailablehighwaycapacitytotheextentpossible.SeeAppendicesBthroughDforfurtherdiscussion.TheroutingoftransitdependentevacueesfromtheEPZboundarytoreceptioncentersorhostfacilitiesisdesignedtominimizetheamountoftraveloutsidetheEPZ,fromthepointswheretheseroutescrosstheEPZboundary.Figure101presentsamapshowingthegeneralpopulationreceptioncenters.ThemajorevacuationroutesforthefourquadrantsoftheEPZarepresentedinFigure102.Itisassumedthatallschoolevacueeswillbetakentotheappropriatehostschool/receptioncenterandsubsequentlypickedupbyparentsorguardians.Transitdependentevacueesaretransportedtothenearestreceptioncenterforeachcounty.Thisstudydoesnotconsiderthetransportofevacueesfromreceptioncenterstocongregatecarecenters,ifthecountiesdomakethedecisiontorelocateevacuees.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation102KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure101.GeneralPopulationReceptionCenters EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation103KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Figure102.EvacuationRouteMap EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation111KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.511 SURVEILLANCEOFEVACUATIONOPERATIONSThereisaneedforsurveillanceoftrafficoperationsduringtheevacuation.Thereisalsoaneedtoclearanyblockageofroadwaysarisingfromaccidentsorvehicledisablement.Surveillancecantakeseveralforms.1. Trafficcontrolpersonnel,locatedatTrafficControlandAccessControlpoints,providefixedpointsurveillance2. Groundpatrolsmaybeundertakenalongwelldefinedpathstoensurecoverageofthosehighwaysthatserveasmajorevacuationroutes3. Aerialsurveillanceofevacuationoperationsmayalsobeconductedusinghelicopterorfixedwingaircraft,ifavailable4. Cellularphonecalls(ifcellularcoverageexists)frommotoristsmayalsoprovidedirectfieldreportsofroadblockagesTheseconcurrentsurveillanceproceduresaredesignedtoprovidecoverageoftheentireEPZaswellastheareaarounditsperiphery.Itistheresponsibilityofthecountiestosupportanemergencyresponsesystemthatcanreceivemessagesfromthefieldandbeinapositiontorespondtoanyreportedproblemsinatimelymanner.Thiscoverageshouldquicklyidentify,andexpeditetheresponsetoanyblockagecausedbyadisabledvehicle.TowVehiclesInalowspeedtrafficenvironment,anyvehicledisablementislikelytoariseduetoalowspeedcollision,mechanicalfailure,ortheexhaustionofitsfuelsupply.Inanycase,thedisabledvehiclecanbepushedontotheshoulder,therebyrestoringtrafficflow.Pastexperienceinotheremergenciesindicatesthatevacueeswhoareleavinganareaoftenperformactivitiessuchaspushingadisabledvehicletothesideoftheroadwithoutprompting.Whiletheneedfortowvehiclesisexpectedtobelowunderthecircumstancesdescribedabove,itisstillprudenttobepreparedforsuchaneed.Considerationshouldbegiventhattowtruckswithasupplyofgasolinebedeployedatstrategiclocationswithin,orjustoutside,theEPZ.Theselocationsshouldbeselectedsothat: Theypermitaccesstokey,heavilyloaded,evacuationroutes RespondingtowtruckswouldmostlikelytravelcounterflowrelativetoevacuatingtrafficConsiderationshouldalsobegiventhatthestateandlocalemergencymanagementagenciesencouragegasstationstoremainopenduringtheevacuation.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation121KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.512 CONFIRMATIONTIMEItisnecessarytoconfirmthattheevacuationprocessiseffectiveinthesensethatthepubliciscomplyingwiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Part3(pagePart35)oftheSouthCarolinaOperationalRadiologicalEmergencyResponsePlanindicatesthatevacuationconfirmationtimeis45hours;however,detailsonhowtheevacuationwillbeconfirmedarenotprovided.Shouldprocedurestoconfirmevacuationnotalreadyexist,wesuggestanalternativeorcomplementaryapproach.Theprocedurewesuggestemploysastratifiedrandomsampleandatelephonesurvey.ThesizeofthesampleisdependentontheexpectednumberofhouseholdsthatdonotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Itisreasonabletoassume,forthepurposeofestimatingsamplesizethatatleast80percentofthepopulationwithintheEPZwillcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate.Onthisbasis,ananalysiscouldbeundertaken(seeTable121)toyieldanestimatedsamplesizeofapproximately300.Theconfirmationprocessshouldstartatabout2hoursand30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate,whichiswhen90percentofevacueeshavecompletedtheirmobilizationactivities(seeFigure54).Atthistime,virtuallyallevacueeswillhavedepartedontheirrespectivetripsandthelocaltelephonesystemwillbelargelyfreeoftraffic.AsindicatedinTable121,approximately71/2personhoursareneededtocompletethetelephonesurvey.Ifsixpeopleareassignedtothistask,eachdialingadifferentsetoftelephoneexchanges(e.g.,eachpersoncanbeassignedadifferentsetofPAZs),thentheconfirmationprocesswillextendoveratimeframeofabout75minutes.Thus,theconfirmationshouldbecompletedbeforetheevacuatedareaiscleared.Ofcourse,fewerpeoplewouldbeneededforthissurveyiftheEvacuationRegionwereonlyaportionoftheEPZ.Useofmodernautomatedcomputercontrolleddialingequipmentcansignificantlyreducethemanpowerrequirementsandthetimerequiredtoundertakethistypeofconfirmationsurvey.Ifthismethodisindeedusedbytheoffsiteagencies,considerationshouldbegiventomaintainalistoftelephonenumberswithintheEPZintheEmergencyOperationsCenter(EOC)atalltimes.Suchalistcouldbepurchasedfromvendorsandshouldbeperiodicallyupdated.Asindicatedabove,theconfirmationprocessshouldnotbeginuntil2hoursand30minutesaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.This21/2hourtimeframewillenabletelephoneoperatorstoarriveattheirworkplace,obtainacalllistandpreparetomakethenecessaryphonecalls.Shouldthenumberoftelephoneresponses(i.e.,peoplestillathome)exceed20percent,thenthetelephonesurveyshouldberepeatedafteranhour'sintervaluntiltheconfirmationprocessiscompleted.Othertechniquesshouldalsobeconsidered.Aftertrafficvolumesdecline,thepersonnelmanningTCPscanberedeployedtotravelthroughresidentialareastoobserveandtoconfirmevacuationactivities.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation122KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Table121.EstimatedNumberofTelephoneCallsRequiredforConfirmationofEvacuationProblemDefinitionEstimatenumberofphonecalls,n,neededtoascertaintheproportion,Fofhouseholdsthathavenotevacuated.

Reference:

Burstein,H.,AttributeSampling,McGrawHill,1971Given: No.ofhouseholdsplusotherfacilities,N,withintheEPZ(est.)=5,300 Est.proportion,F,ofhouseholdsthatwillnotevacuate=0.20 Allowableerrormargin,e:0.05 Confidencelevel,:0.95(impliesA=1.96)ApplyingTable10ofcitedreference,Finitepopulationcorrection:

Thus,some300telephonecallswillconfirmthatapproximately20percentofthepopulationhasnotevacuated.Ifonly10percentofthepopulationdoesnotcomplywiththeAdvisorytoEvacuate,thentherequiredsamplesize,nF=207.

Est.PersonHourstocomplete300telephonecallsAssume: Timetodialusingtouchtone(randomselectionoflistednumbers):30seconds Timefor6rings(noanswer):36seconds Timefor4ringsplusshortconversation:60sec. Intervalbetweencalls:20sec.PersonHours:

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStation131KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.513 RECOMMENDATIONSThefollowingrecommendationsareoffered:1. ExaminationofthegeneralpopulationETEinSection7showsthattheETEfor100percentofthepopulationisgenerally2to21/2hourslongerthanfor90percentofthepopulation.Specifically,theadditionaltimeneededforthelast10percentofthepopulationtoevacuatecanbeasmuchasdoublethetimeneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopulation.Thisnonlinearityreflectsthefactthattheserelativelyfewstragglersrequiresignificantlymoretimetomobilize(i.e.preparefortheevacuationtrip)thantheirneighbors.Thisleadstotworecommendations:a. Thepublicoutreach(information)programshouldemphasizetheneedforevacueestominimizethetimeneededtopreparetoevacuate(securethehome,assembleneededclothes,medicines,etc.)b. ThedecisionmakersshouldreferenceTable71whichlistthetimeneededtoevacuate90percentofthepopulation,whenpreparingrecommendedprotectiveactions,asperNUREG/CR7002guidance2. Stagedevacuationhasbeenshowntobeineffectiveinreducingevacuationtimeforthe2mileregion.ThereisnocongestionwithintheEPZ;thusevacueesfromthe2mileregionarenotdelayedwhenevacuating.Stagedevacuationneednotbeconsideredindevelopingprotectiveactionrecommendationand/ordecisionlogic.3. Theroadwayimpactscenarioconsidered,closingonelaneeastboundonI26inLexingtonCounty,didnotmateriallyaffectETE.SufficientreservehighwaycapacityandtheavailabilityofalternativeroutesmitigatetheimpactsonETE.4. Countiesshouldimplementprocedureswherebyschoolsarecontactedpriortodispatchofbusesfromthedepotstogetanaccuratecountofstudentsneedingtransportationandthenumberofbusesrequired(SeeSection8).5. AverageschoolETE(Tables87through89)doesnotexceedtheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90thpercentileforanevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03).TheETEfortransitdependentpeople(Tables811through813)doexceedtheETEforthegeneralpopulationatthe90thpercentile.Thus,Tables811through813shouldbeconsideredwhenmakingProtectiveActionDecisions.6. IntelligentTransportationSystems(ITS)suchasDynamicMessageSigns(DMS),HighwayAdvisoryRadio(HAR),AutomatedTravelerInformationSystems(ATIS),etc.shouldbeusedtofacilitatetheevacuationprocess(SeeSection9).Theplacementofadditionalsignageshouldconsiderevacuationneeds.7. Countiesshouldestablishstrategiclocationstopositiontowtrucksprovidedwithgasolinecontainersintheeventofadisabledvehicleduringtheevacuationprocess(seeSection11)andshouldencouragegasstationstoremainopenduringtheevacuation.8. CountiesshouldestablishasystemtoconfirmthattheAdvisorytoEvacuateisbeingadheredto(seetheapproachsuggestedbyKLDinSection12).ShouldtheapproachrecommendedbyKLDinSection12beused,alistoftelephonenumberswithintheEPZshouldbekeptintheEmergencyOperationsCenter(EOC).TheuseofReverse911orautomateddialingtechnologiesmaybeconsidered,ifavailable.

APPENDIXAGlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTerms EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationA1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5A GLOSSARYOFTRAFFICENGINEERINGTERMSTableA1.GlossaryofTrafficEngineeringTermsTermDefinitionAnalysisNetworkAgraphicalrepresentationofthegeometrictopologyofaphysicalroadwaysystem,whichiscomprisedofdirectionallinksandnodes.LinkAnetworklinkrepresentsaspecific,onedirectionalsectionofroadway.Alinkhasbothphysical(length,numberoflanes,topology,etc.)andoperational(turnmovementpercentages,servicerate,freeflowspeed)characteristics.MeasuresofEffectiven essStatisticsdescribingtrafficoperationsonaroadwaynetwork.NodeAnetworknodegenerallyrepresentsanintersectionofnetworklinks.Anodehascontrolcharacteristics,i.e.,theallocationofservicetimetoeachapproachlink.OriginAlocationattachedtoanetworklink,withintheEPZorShadowRegion,wheretripsaregeneratedataspecifiedrateinvehiclesperhour(vph).Thesetripsentertheroadwaysystemtotraveltotheirrespectivedestinations.PrevailingRoadwayandTrafficConditionsRelatestothephysicalfeaturesoftheroadway,thenature(e.g.,composition)oftrafficontheroadwayandtheambientconditions(weather,visibility,pavementconditions,etc.).ServiceRateMaximumrateatwhichvehicles,executingaspecificturnmaneuver,canbedischargedfromasectionofroadwayattheprevailingconditions,expressedinvehiclespersecond(vps)orvehiclesperhour(vph).ServiceVolumeMaximumnumberofvehicleswhichcanpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirectionduringaspecifiedtimeperiodwithoperatingconditionsataspecifiedLevelofService(TheServiceVolumeattheupperboundofLevelofService,E,equalsCapacity).ServiceVolumeisusuallyexpressedasvehiclesperhour(vph).SignalCycleLengthThetotalelapsedtimetodisplayallsignalindications,insequence.Thecyclelengthisexpressedinseconds.SignalIntervalAsinglecombinationofsignalindications.Theintervaldurationisexpressedinseconds.Asignalphaseiscomprisedofasequenceofsignalintervals,usuallygreen,yellow,red.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationA2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TermDefinitionSignalPhaseAsetofsignalindications(andintervals)whichservicesaparticularcombinationoftrafficmovementsonselectedapproachestotheintersection.Thephasedurationisexpressedinseconds.Traffic(Trip)AssignmentAprocessofassigningtraffictopathsoftravelinsuchawayastosatisfyalltripobjectives(i.e.,thedesireofeachvehicletotravelfromaspecifiedorigininthenetworktoaspecifieddestination)andtooptimizesomestatedobjectiveorcombinationofobjectives.Ingeneral,theobjectiveisstatedintermsofminimizingageneralized"cost".Forexample,"cost"maybeexpressedintermsoftraveltime.TrafficDensityThenumberofvehiclesthatoccupyonelaneofaroadwaysectionofspecifiedlengthatapointintime,expressedasvehiclespermile(vpm).Traffic(Trip)Distribution Aprocessfordeterminingthedestinationsofalltrafficgeneratedattheorigins.TheresultoftentakestheformofaTripTable,whichisamatrixoforigindestinationtrafficvolumes.TrafficSimulationAcomputermodeldesignedtoreplicatetherealworldoperationofvehiclesonaroadwaynetwork,soastoprovidestatisticsdescribingtrafficperformance.ThesestatisticsarecalledMeasuresofEffectiven ess.TrafficVolumeThenumberofvehiclesthatpassoverasectionofroadwayinonedirection,expressedinvehiclesperhour(vph).Whereapplicable,trafficvolumemaybestratifiedbyturnmovement.TravelModeDistinguishesbetweenprivateauto,bus,rail,pedestrianandairtravelmodes.TripTableorOriginDestinationMatrixArectangularmatrixortable,whoseentriescontainthenumberoftripsgeneratedateachspecifiedorigin,duringaspecifiedtimeperiod,thatareattractedto(andtraveltoward)eachofitsspecifieddestinations.Thesevaluesareexpressedinvehiclesperhour(vph)orinvehicles.TurningCapacityThecapacityassociatedwiththatcomponentofthetrafficstreamwhichexecutesaspecifiedturnmaneuverfromanapproachatanintersection.

APPENDIXBDTRAD:DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistributionModel EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationB1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5B. DYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENTANDDISTRIBUTIONMODELThissectiondescribestheintegrateddynamictripassignmentanddistributionmodelnamedDTRAD(DynamicTrafficAssignmentandDistribution)thatisexpresslydesignedforuseinanalyzingevacuationscenarios.DTRADemployslogitbasedpathchoiceprinciplesandisoneofthemodelsoftheDYNEVIISystem.TheDTRADmoduleimplementspathbasedDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTA)sothattimedependentOriginDestination(OD)tripsare"assigned"toroutesoverthenetworkbasedonprevailingtrafficconditions.ToapplytheDYNEVIISystem,theanalystmustspecifythehighwaynetwork,linkcapacityinformation,thetimevaryingvolumeoftrafficgeneratedatallorigincentroidsand,optionally,asetofaccessiblecandidatedestinationnodesontheperipheryoftheEPZforselectedorigins.DTRADcalculatestheoptimaldynamictripdistribution(i.e.,tripdestinations)andtheoptimaldynamictripassignment(i.e.,triprouting)ofthetrafficgeneratedateachoriginnodetravelingtoitssetofcandidatedestinationnodes,soastominimizeevacueetravel"cost".OverviewofIntegratedDistributionandAssignmentModelTheunderlyingpremiseisthattheselectionofdestinationsandroutesisintrinsicallycoupledinanevacuationscenario.Thatis,peopleinvehiclesseektotraveloutofanareaofpotentialriskasrapidlyaspossiblebyselectingthe"best"routes.Themodelisdesignedtoidentifythese"best"routesinamannerthatrealisticallydistributesvehiclesfromoriginstodestinationsandroutesthemoverthehighwaynetwork,inaconsistentandoptimalmanner,reflectingevacueebehavior.Foreachorigin,asetof"candidatedestinationnodes"isselectedbythesoftwarelogicandbytheanalysttoreflectthedesirebyevacueestotravelawayfromthepowerplantandtoaccessmajorhighways.Thespecificdestinationnodeswithinthissetthatareselectedbytravelersandtheselectionoftheconnectingpathsoftravel,arebothdeterminedbyDTRAD.ThisdeterminationismadebyalogitbasedpathchoicemodelinDTRAD,soastominimizethetrip"cost",asdiscussedlater.Thetrafficloadingonthenetworkandtheconsequentoperationaltrafficenvironmentofthenetwork(density,speed,throughputoneachlink)varyovertimeastheevacuationtakesplace.TheDTRADmodel,whichisinterfacedwiththeDYNEVsimulationmodel,executesasuccessionof"sessions"whereinitcomputestheoptimalroutingandselectionofdestinationnodesfortheconditionsthatexistatthattime.InterfacingtheDYNEVSimulationModelwithDTRADTheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.AnalgorithmwasdevelopedtosupporttheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(ODmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.Anotheralgorithmexecutesa"mapping"fromthespecified"geometric"network(linknodeanalysisnetwork)thatrepresentsthephysicalhighwaysystem,toa"path"networkthatrepresentsthevehicle[turn]movements.DTRADcomputationsareperformedonthe"path"network:DYNEVsimulationmodel,onthe"geometric"network.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationB2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5DTRADDescriptionDTRADistheDTAmodulefortheDYNEVIISystem.Whentheroadnetworkunderstudyislarge,multipleroutingoptionsareusuallyavailablebetweentriporiginsanddestinations.TheproblemofloadingtrafficdemandsandpropagatingthemoverthenetworklinksiscalledNetworkLoadingandisaddressedbyDYNEVIIusingmacroscopictrafficsimulationmodeling.TrafficassignmentdealswithcomputingthedistributionofthetrafficovertheroadnetworkforgivenODdemandsandisamodeloftheroutechoiceofthedrivers.Traveldemandchangessignificantlyovertime,andtheroadnetworkmayhavetimedependentcharacteristics,e.g.,timevaryingsignaltimingorreducedroadcapacitybecauseoflaneclosure,ortrafficcongestion.Toconsiderthesetimedependencies,DTAproceduresarerequired.TheDTRADDTAmodulerepresentsthedynamicroutechoicebehaviorofdrivers,usingthespecificationofdynamicorigindestinationmatricesasflowinput.Driverschoosetheirroutesthroughthenetworkbasedonthetravelcosttheyexperience(asdeterminedbythesimulationmodel).Thisallowstraffictobedistributedoverthenetworkaccordingtothetimedependentconditions.ThemodelingprinciplesofDTRADinclude: Itisassumedthatdriversnotonlyselectthebestroute(i.e.,lowestcostpath)butsomealsoselectlessattractiveroutes.ThealgorithmimplementedbyDTRADarchivesseveral"efficient"routesforeachODpairfromwhichthedriverschoose. Thechoiceofonerouteoutofasetofpossibleroutesisanoutcomeof"discretechoicemodeling".Givenasetofroutesandtheirgeneralizedcosts,thepercentagesofdriversthatchooseeachrouteiscomputed.Themostprevalentmodelfordiscretechoicemodelingisthelogitmodel.DTRADusesavariantofPathSizeLogitmodel(PSL).PSLovercomesthedrawbackofthetraditionalmultinomiallogitmodelbyincorporatinganadditionaldeterministicpathsizecorrectiontermtoaddresspathoverlappingintherandomutilityexpression. DTRADexecutestheTAalgorithmonanabstractnetworkrepresentationcalled"thepathnetwork"whichisbuiltfromtheactualphysicallinknodeanalysisnetwork.Thisexecutioncontinuesuntilastablesituationisreached:thevolumesandtraveltimesontheedgesofthepathnetworkdonotchangesignificantlyfromoneiterationtothenext.Thecriteriaforthisconvergencearedefinedbytheuser. Travel"cost"playsacrucialroleinroutechoice.InDTRAD,pathcostisalinearsummationofthegeneralizedcostofeachlinkthatcomprisesthepath.Thegeneralizedcostforalink,a,isexpressedasaaaactls,whereacisthegeneralizedcostforlinka,and,,andarecostcoefficientsforlinktraveltime,distance,andsupplementalcost,respectively.Distanceandsupplementalcostsaredefinedasinvariantpropertiesofthenetworkmodel,whiletraveltimeisadynamicpropertydictatedbyprevailingtrafficconditions.TheDYNEVsimulationmodel EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationB3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5computestraveltimesonalledgesinthenetworkandDTRADusesthatinformationtoconstantlyupdatethecostsofpaths.Theroutechoicedecisionmodelinthenextsimulationiterationusestheseupdatedvaluestoadjusttheroutechoicebehavior.Thisway,trafficdemandsaredynamicallyreassignedbasedontimedependentconditions.TheinteractionbetweentheDTRADtrafficassignmentandDYNEVIIsimulationmodelsisdepictedinFigureB1.EachroundofinteractioniscalledaTrafficAssignmentSession(TAsession).ATAsessioniscomposedofmultipleiterations,markedasloopBinthefigure. Thesupplementalcostisbasedonthe"survivaldistribution"(avariationoftheexponentialdistribution).TheInverseSurvivalFunctionisa"cost"terminDTRADtorepresentthepotentialriskoftraveltowardtheplant:sa=

ln(p),0pl;0p=dn=Distanceofnode,n,fromtheplantd0=Distancefromtheplantwherethereiszerorisk=ScalingfactorThevalueofdo=15miles,theouterdistanceoftheshadowregion.Notethatthesupplementalcost,sa,oflink,a,is(high,low),ifitsdownstreamnode,n,is(near,farfrom)thepowerplant.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationB4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NetworkEquilibriumIn1952,JohnWardropwrote:Underequilibriumconditionstrafficarrangesitselfincongestednetworksinsuchawaythatnoindividualtripmakercanreducehispathcostsbyswitchingroutes.Theabovestatementdescribesthe"UserEquilibrium"definition,alsocalledthe"SelfishDriverEquilibrium".Itisahypothesisthatrepresentsa[hopeful]conditionthatevolvesovertimeasdriverssearchoutalternativeroutestoidentifythoseroutesthatminimizetheirrespective"costs".Ithasbeenfoundthatthis"equilibrium"objectivetominimizecostsislargelyrealizedbymostdriverswhoroutinelytakethesametripoverthesamenetworkatthesametime(i.e.,commuters).Effectively,suchdrivers"learn"whichroutesarebestforthemovertime.Thus,thetrafficenvironment"settlesdown"toanearequilibriumstate.Clearly,sinceanemergencyevacuationisasudden,uniqueevent,itdoesnotconstitutealongtermlearningexperiencewhichcanachieveanequilibriu mstate.Consequently,DTRADwasnotdesignedasanequilibriumsolution,buttorepresentdriversinanewandunfamiliarsituation,whorespondinaflexiblemannertorealtimeinformation(eitherbroadcastorobserved)insuchawayastominimizetheirrespectivecostsoftravel.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationB5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureB1.FlowDiagramofSimulationDTRADInterfaceStartofnextDTRADSessionSetClocktime.ArchiveSystemStateatDefinelatestLinkTurnPercentagesExecuteSimulationModelfromtime,(burntime)ProvideDTRADwithlinkMOEattime,ExecuteDTRADiteration; GetnewTurnPercentagesRetrieveSystemStateat;ApplynewLinkTurnPercentsDTRADiterationconverges?

Nextiteration Simulatefrom(DTAsessionduration)SetClocktoABAYesNoB APPENDIXCDYNEVTrafficSimulationModel EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5C. DYNEVTRAFFICSIMULATIONMODELTheDYNEVtrafficsimulationmodelisamacroscopicmodelthatdescribestheoperationsoftrafficflowintermsofaggregatevariables:vehicles,flowrate,meanspeed,volume,density,queuelength,oneachlink,foreachturnmovement,duringeachTimeInterval(simulationtimestep).Themodelsimulatesthemovementsofallvehiclesonallnetworklinksovertimeuntilthenetworkisempty.Atintervals,themodeloutputsMeasuresofEffectiveness(MOE)suchasthoselistedinTableC1.ModelFeaturesInclude: Explicitconsiderationistakenofthevariationindensityoverthetimestep;aniterativeprocedureisemployedtocalculateanaveragedensityoverthesimulationtimestepforthepurposeofcomputingameanspeedformovingvehicles. Multipleturnmovementscanbeservicedononelink;aseparatealgorithmisusedtoestimatethenumberof(fractional)lanesassignedtothevehiclesperformingeachturnmovement,based,inpart,ontheturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTRADmodel. Atanypointintime,trafficflowonalinkissubdividedintotwoclassifications:queuedandmovingvehicles.Thenumberofvehiclesineachclassificationiscomputed.Vehiclespillback,stratifiedbyturnmovementforeachnetworklink,isexplicitlyconsideredandquantified.Thepropagationofstoppingwavesfromlinktolinkiscomputedwithineachtimestepofthesimulation.Thereisno"verticalstacking"ofqueuesonalink. Anylinkcanaccommodate"sourceflow"fromzonesviasidestreetsandparkingfacilitiesthatarenotexplicitlyrepresented.Thisflowrepresentstheevacuatingtripsthataregeneratedatthesource. Therelationbetweenthenumberofvehiclesoccupyingthelinkanditsstoragecapacityismonitoredeverytimestepforeverylinkandforeveryturnmovement.Iftheavailablestoragecapacityonalinkisexceededbythedemandforservice,thenthesimulatorappliesa"metering"ratetotheenteringtrafficfromboththeupstreamfeedersandsourcenodetoensurethattheavailablestoragecapacityisnotexceeded. A"pathnetwork"thatrepresentsthespecifiedtrafficmovementsfromeachnetworklinkisconstructedbythemodel;thispathnetworkisutilizedbytheDTRADmodel. AtwowayinterfacewithDTRAD:(1)provideslinktraveltimes;(2)receivesdatathattranslatesintolinkturnpercentages. ProvidesMOEtoanimationsoftware,EVAN CalculatesETEstatisticsAlltrafficsimulationmodelsaredataintensive.TableC2outlinesthenecessaryinputdataelements.Toprovideanefficientframeworkfordefiningthesespecifications,thephysicalhighwayenvironmentisrepresentedasanetwork.Theunidirectionallinksofthenetworkrepresentroadwaysections:rural,multilane,urbanstreets,orfreeways.Thenodesofthenetwork EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5generallyrepresentintersectionsorpointsalongasectionwhereageometricpropertychanges(e.g.alanedrop,changeingrade,orfreeflowspeed).FigureC1isanexampleofasmallnetworkrepresentation.Thefreewayisdefinedbythesequenceoflinks,(20,21),(21,22),and(22,23).Links(8001,19)and(3,8011)areEntryandExitlinks,respectively.Anarterialextendsfromnode3tonode19andispartiallysubsumedwithinagridnetwork.Notethatlinks(21,22)and(17,19)aregradeseparated.TableC1.SelectedMeasuresofEffectivenessOutputbyDYNEVIIMeasureUnitsAppliesToVehiclesDischargedVehiclesLink,Network,ExitLinkSpeedMiles/Hours(mph)Link,NetworkDensityVehicles/Mile/LaneLinkLevelofServiceLOSLinkContentVehiclesNetworkTravelTimeVehiclehoursNetworkEvacuatedVehiclesVehiclesNetwork,ExitLinkTripTravelTimeVehicleminutes/tripNetworkCapacityUtilizationPercentExitLinkAttractionPercentoftotalevacuatingvehiclesExitLinkMaxQueueVehiclesNode,ApproachTimeofMaxQueueHours:minutesNode,ApproachRouteStatisticsLength(mi);MeanSpeed(mph);TravelTime(min)RouteMeanTravelTimeMinutesEvacuationTrips,Network EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableC2.InputRequirementsfortheDYNEVIIModelHIGHWAYNETWORK Linksdefinedbyupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers Linklengths Numberoflanes(upto6)andchannelization Turnbays(1to3lanes) Destination(exit)nodes Networktopologydefinedintermsofdownstreamnodesforeachreceivinglink NodeCoordinates(X,Y) NPPCoordinates(X,Y)GENERATEDTRAFFICVOLUMES Onallentrylinksandsourcenodes(origins),byTimePeriodTRAFFICCONTROLSPECIFICATIONS Trafficsignals:linkspecific,turnmovementspecific Signalcontroltreatedasfixedtimeoractuated Locationoftrafficcontrolpoints(thesearerepresentedasactuatedsignals) StopandYieldsigns Rightturnonred(RTOR) Routediversionspecifications Turnrestrictions Lanecontrol(e.g.laneclosure,movementspecific)DRIVER'SANDOPERATIONALCHARACTERISTICS Driver's(vehiclespecific)responsemechanisms:freeflowspeed,dischargeheadway BusroutedesignationDYNAMICTRAFFICASSIGNMENT Candidatedestinationnodesforeachorigin(optional) DurationofDTAsessions Durationofsimulation"burntime" DesirednumberofdestinationnodesperoriginINCIDENTS IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlanes IdentifyandScheduleofclosedlinks EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureC1.RepresentativeAnalysisNetwork 8001801136912 14 15 16 1917 2 8107 8 8012 13 22 8009 8010 8005 23 8003 810451011 8014 25 24 21800880078006 8004 8024 208002 Entry,ExitNodesarenumbered8xxx EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5METHODOLOGYTheFundamentalDiagramItisnecessarytodefinethefundamentaldiagramdescribingflowdensityandspeeddensityrelationships.Ratherthan"settlingfor"atriangularrepresentation,amorerealisticrepresentationthatincludesa"capacitydrop",(IR)atthecriticaldensitywhenflowconditionsentertheforcedflowregime,isdevelopedandcalibratedforeachlink.Thisrepresentation,showninFigureC2,assertsaconstantfreespeeduptoadensity,,andthenalinearreductioninspeedintherange,thedensityatcapacity.Intheflowdensityplane,aquadraticrelationshipisprescribedintherange,whichroughlyrepresentsthe"stopandgo"conditionofseverecongestion.Thevalueofflowrate,correspondingtoisapproximatedatAlinearrelationshipbetweencompletesthediagramshowninFigureC2.TableC3isaglossaryofterms.Thefundamentaldiagramisappliedtomovingtrafficoneverylink.Thespecifiedcalibrationvaluesforeachlinkare:(1)Freespeed,;(2)Capacity,;(3)Criticaldensity, (4)CapacityDropFactor,R=0.9;(5)Jamdensity,Then,SettingthenforItcanbeshownthatTheSimulationModelThesimulationmodelsolvesasequenceof"unitproblems".Eachunitproblemcomputesthemovementoftrafficonalink,foreachspecifiedturnmovement,overaspecifiedtimeinterval(TI)whichservesasthesimulationtimestepforalllinks.FigureC3isarepresentationoftheunitprobleminthetimedistanceplane.TableC3isaglossaryoftermsthatarereferencedinthefollowingdescriptionoftheunitproblemprocedure.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureC2.FundamentalDiagramsFigureC3.AUNITProblemConfigurationwitht1>0 meDistanceDownUp EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableC3.GlossaryCapThemaximumnumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatcandischargefromalinkwithinatimeinterval.EThenumberofvehicles,ofaparticularmovement,thatenterthelinkoverthetimeinterval.Theportion,ETI,canreachthestepbarwithintheTI.G/CThegreentime:cycletimeratiothatservicesthevehiclesofaparticularturnmovementonalink.hThemeanqueuedischargeheadway,seconds.kDensityinvehiclesperlanepermile.TheaveragedensityofmovingvehiclesofaparticularmovementoveraTI,onalink.LThelengthofthelinkinfeet.Thequeuelengthinfeetofaparticularmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofatimeinterval.LNThenumberoflanes,expressedasafloatingpointnumber,allocatedtoserviceaparticularmovementonalink.Themeaneffectivelengthofaqueuedvehicleincludingthevehiclespacing,feet.MMeteringfactor(Multiplier):1.Thenumberofmovingvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularmovement,thataremovingatthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Thesevehiclesareassumedtobeofequalspacing,overthelengthoflinkupstreamofthequeue.OThetotalnumberofvehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkoveratimeinterval.Thecomponentsofthevehiclesofaparticularmovementthataredischargedfromalinkwithinatimeinterval:vehiclesthatwereQueuedatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatwereMovingwithinthelinkatthebeginningoftheTI;vehiclesthatEnteredthelinkduringtheTI.Thepercentage,expressedasafraction,ofthetotalflowonthelinkthatexecutesaparticularturnmovement,x.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Thenumberofqueuedvehiclesonthelink,ofaparticularturnmovement,atthe[beginning,end]ofthetimeinterval.Themaximumflowratethatcanbeservicedbyalinkforaparticularmovementintheabsenceofacontroldevice.Itisspecifiedbytheanalystasanestimateoflinkcapacity,baseduponafieldsurvey,withreferencetotheHCM2010.RThefactorthatisappliedtothecapacityofalinktorepresentthe"capacitydrop"whentheflowconditionmovesintotheforcedflowregime.Thelowercapacityatthatpointisequalto.RCapTheremainingcapacityavailabletoservicevehiclesofaparticularmovementafterthatqueuehasbeencompletelyserviced,withinatimeinterval,expressedasvehicles.Servicerateformovementx,vehiclesperhour(vph).Vehiclesofaparticularturnmovementthatenteralinkoverthefirstsecondsofatimeinterval,canreachthestopbar(intheabsenceofaqueuedownstream)withinthesametimeinterval.TIThetimeinterval,inseconds,whichisusedasthesimulationtimestep.vThemeanspeedoftravel,infeetpersecond(fps)ormilesperhour(mph),ofmovingvehiclesonthelink.ThemeanspeedofthelastvehicleinaqueuethatdischargesfromthelinkwithintheTI.Thisspeeddiffersfromthemeanspeedofmovingvehicles,v.WThewidthoftheintersectioninfeet.Thisisthedifferencebetweenthelinklengthwhichextendsfromstopbartostopbarandtheblocklength.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Theformulationandtheassociatedlogicpresentedbelowaredesignedtosolvetheunitproblemforeachsweepoverthenetwork(discussedbelow),foreachturnmovementservicedoneachlinkthatcomprisestheevacuationnetwork,andforeachTIoverthedurationoftheevacuation. 1. Forthefirstsweep,s=1,ofthisTI,getinitialestimatesofmeandensity,theR-factor,andenteringtraffic,usingthevaluescomputedforthefinalsweepofthepriorTI.Foreachsubsequentsweep,aretherelevantturnpercentagesfromfeederlink,i,anditstotaloutflow(possiblymetered)overthisTI;Sisthetotalsourceflow(possiblymetered)duringthecurrentTI.Setiterationcounter,n=0,2. usingtheanalyticalrepresentationsofthefundamentaldiagram.3. 4. 5. Endif6. 7.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5 9.10.EndifEndifEndif11. where=densityatthebeginningoftheTI=densityattheendoftheTI=densityatthemidpointoftheTIAllvaluesofdensityapplyonlytothemovingvehicles.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TIt3Q'et1L3vQevvQQbMb12. EndifComputationofunitproblemisnowcomplete.Checkforexcessiveinflowcausingspillback.13. Thenumberofexcessvehiclesthatcausespillbackis:whereWisthewidthoftheupstreamintersection.Topreventspillback,metertheoutflowfromthefeederapproachesandfromthesourceflow,S,duringthisTIbytheamount,SB.Thatis,setThismeteringfactorisassignedappropriatelytoallfeederlinksandtothesourceflow,tobeappliedduringthenextnetworksweep,discussedlater.AlgorithmAThisanalysisaddressestheflowenvironmentoveraTIduringwhichmovingvehiclescanjoinastandingordischargingqueue.Forthecaseshown,aqueueoflength,formedbythatportionofthatreachesthestopbarwithintheTI,butcouldnotdischargeduetoinadequatecapacity.Thatis,Thisqueuelength,canbeextendedtobytrafficenteringtheapproachduringthecurrentTI,travelingatspeed,v,andreachingtherearofthequeuewithintheTI.Aportionoftheenteringvehicles,willlikelyjointhequeue.ThisanalysiscalculatesfortheinputvaluesofL,TI,v,E,t,,LN,.

Recognizingthatthefirsttwotermsontherighthandsidecancel,solvefortoobtain:

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Ifthedenominator,ThecompleteAlgorithmAconsidersallflowscenarios;spacelimitationprecludesitsinclusion,here.LaneAssignmentThe"unitproblem"issolvedforeachturnmovementoneachlink.Thereforeitisnecessarytocalculateavalue,ofallocatedlanesforeachmovement,x.Ifinfactalllanesarespecifiedby,say,arrowspaintedonthepavement,eitherasfulllanesoraslaneswithinaturnbay,thentheproblemisfullydefined.Ifhoweverthereremainunchannelizedlanesonalink,thenananalysisisundertakentosubdividethenumberofthesephysicallanesintoturnmovementspecificvirtuallanes,LNx.

IMPLEMENTATIONComputationalProcedureThecomputationalprocedureforthismodelisshownintheformofaflowdiagramasFigureC4.Asdiscussedearlier,thesimulationmodelprocessestrafficflowforeachlinkindependentlyovertheTIthattheanalystspecifies;itisusually60secondsorlonger.Thefirststepistoexecuteanalgorithmtodefinethesequenceinwhichthenetworklinksareprocessedsothatasmanylinksaspossibleareprocessedaftertheirfeederlinksareprocessed,withinthesamenetworksweep.Sinceageneralnetworkwillhavemanyclosedloops,itisnotpossibletoguaranteethateverylinkprocessedwillhaveallofitsfeederlinksprocessedearlier.Theprocessingthencontinuesasasuccessionoftimestepsofduration,TI,untilthesimulationiscompleted.Withineachtimestep,theprocessingperformsaseriesof"sweeps"overallnetworklinks;thisisnecessarytoensurethatthetrafficflowissynchronousovertheentirenetworkandthataspillbackconditionisproperlyresolvedintheformofmeteringratesappliedtothefeederlinksandtoanysourceflow.Specifically,thesweepensurescontinuityofflowamongallthenetworklinks;inthecontextofthismodel,thismeansthatthevaluesofE,M,andSarealldefinedforeachlink,eachtimestep,TI,suchthattheyrepresentthesynchronousmovementoftrafficfromeachlinktoallofitsoutboundlinks.ThesesweepsalsoservetocomputethemeteringratesthatcontrolspillbackandthatareappliedasinitialconditionsforthefollowingTI.Withineachsweep,processingsolvesthe"unitproblem"foreachturnmovementoneachlink.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5WiththeturnmovementpercentagesforeachlinkprovidedbytheDTRADmodel,analgorithmallocatesthenumberoflanestoeachmovementservicedoneachlink.Thetimingatasignal,ifany,appliedatthedownstreamendofthelink,isexpressedasaG/Cratio;thesignaltimingneededtodefinethisratioisaninputrequirementforthemodel.Themodelalsohasthecapabilityofrepresenting,withmacroscopicfidelity,theactionsofactuatedsignalsrespondingtothetimevaryingcompetingdemandsontheapproachestotheintersection.Thesolutionoftheunitproblemyieldsthevaluesofthenumberofvehicles,O,thatdischargefromthelinkoverthetimeintervalandthenumberofvehiclesthatremainonthelinkattheendofthetimeintervalasstratifiedbyqueuedandmovingvehicles:Theprocedureconsiderseachmovementseparately(multipiping).Afterallnetworklinksareprocessedforagivennetworksweep,theupdatedconsistentvaluesofenteringflows,E;meteringrates,M;andsourceflows,Saredefinedsoastosatisfythe"nospillback"conditionandsatisfythestorageconstraintoneachlink.Theprocedurethenperformstheunitproblemsolutionsforallnetworklinksduringthefollowingsweep.Experiencehasshownthatthesystemconverges(i.e.thevaluesofE,MandS"settledown"forallnetworklinks)injusttwosweepsifthenetworkisentirelyundersaturated,orinfoursweepsinthepresenceofextensivecongestionwithlinkspillback.(TheinitialsweepovereachlinkusesthefinalvaluesofEandM,ofthepriorTI).AtthecompletionofthefinalsweepforaTI,theprocedurecomputesandstoresallmeasuresofeffectiveness(MOE)foreachlinkandturnmovementforoutputpurposesandforsupportingtheDTRADmodelwithoperationalmetricsusedinDTRAD'scostfunction.ItthenpreparesforthefollowingtimeintervalbydefiningthevaluesofforthestartofthenextTIasbeingthosevaluesofattheendofthepriorTI.Inthismanner,thesimulationmodelprocessesthetrafficflowovertimeuntiltheendoftherun.Notethatthereisnospacediscretizationotherthanthespecificationofnetworklinks.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureC4.FlowofSimulationProcessing(SeeGlossary:TableC3) SequenceNetworkLinksNextTimestep,ofduration,TINextsweep;DefineE,M,SforallLinksNextLinkNextTurnMovement,xGetlanes,ServiceRate,;GetinputstoUnitProblem:,ESolveUnitProblem:LastMovement?LastLink?LastSweep?Calc.,storeallLinkMOESetupnextTI:LastTime-step?DONEABCDDCBANoNoNoNoYesYesYesYes EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationC15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5InterfacingwithDynamicTrafficAssignment(DTRAD)TheDYNEVIIsystemreflectsNRCguidancethatevacueeswillseektotravelinageneraldirectionawayfromthelocationofthehazardousevent.Thus,analgorithmwasdevelopedtoidentifyanappropriatesetofdestinationnodesforeachoriginbasedonitslocationandontheexpecteddirectionoftravel.ThisalgorithmalsosupportstheDTRADmodelindynamicallyvaryingtheTripTable(ODmatrix)overtimefromoneDTRADsessiontothenext.FigureB1depictstheinteractionofthesimulationmodelwiththeDTRADmodelintheDYNEVIIsystem.Asindicated,DYNEVIIperformsasuccessionofDTRAD"sessions";eachsuchsessioncomputestheturnlinkpercentagesforeachlink,thatremainconstantforthesessionduration,specifiedbytheanalyst.Theendproductistheassignmentoftrafficvolumesfromeachorigintopathsconnectingitwithitsdestinationsinsuchawayastominimizethenetworkwidecostfunction.TheoutputoftheDTRADmodelisasetofupdatedlinkturnpercentageswhichrepresentthisassignmentoftraffic.AsindicatedinFigureB1,thesimulationmodelsupportstheDTRADsessionbyprovidingitwithoperationallinkMOEthatareneededbythepathchoicemodelandincludedintheDTRADcostfunction.TheseMOErepresenttheoperationalstateofthenetworkatatime,whichlieswithinthesessionduration,.This"burntime",isselectedbytheanalyst.ForeachDTRADiteration,thesimulationmodelcomputesthechangeinnetworkoperationsoverthisburntimeusingthelatestsetoflinkturnpercentagescomputedbytheDTRADmodel.UponconvergenceoftheDTRADiterativeprocedure,thesimulationmodelacceptsthelatestturnpercentagesprovidedbytheDTAmodel,returnstotheorigintime,andexecutesuntilitarrivesattheendoftheDTRADsessiondurationattime,AtthistimethenextDTAsessionislaunchedandthewholeprocessrepeatsuntiltheendoftheDYNEVIIrun.AdditionaldetailsarepresentedinAppendixB.

APPENDIXDDetailedDescriptionofStudyProcedure EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationD1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5D. DETAILEDDESCRIPTIONOFSTUDYPROCEDUREThisappendixdescribestheactivitiesthatwereperformedtocomputeEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE).TheindividualstepsofthiseffortarerepresentedasaflowdiagraminFigureD1.Eachnumberedstepinthedescriptionthatfollowscorrespondstothenumberedelementintheflowdiagram.Step1ThefirstactivitywastoobtainEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)boundaryinformationandcreateaGeographicInformationSystem(GIS)basemap.ThebasemapextendsbeyondtheShadowRegionwhichextendsapproximately15miles(radially)fromthepowerplantlocation.Thebasemapincorporatesthelocalroadwaytopology,asuitabletopographicbackgroundandtheEPZandPAZboundaries.Step22010CensusblockinformationwasobtainedinGISformat.ThisinformationwasusedtoestimatetheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZandShadowRegionandtodefinethespatialdistributionanddemographiccharacteristicsofthepopulationwithinthestudyarea.EmployeedatawereestimatedusingtheU.S.CensusBureau'sLongitudinalEmployerHouseholdDynamicsinteractivewebsite1,andfromphonecallstomajoremployers.Transientdatawereobtainedfromlocal/stateemergencymanagementagenciesandfromphonecallstotransientattractions.Informationconcerningschools,medical,andothertypesofspecialfacilitieswithintheEPZwereobtainedfromcountyandmunicipalsources,augmentedbytelephonecontactswiththeidentifiedfacilities.Step3Akickoffmeetingwasconductedwithmajorstakeholders(stateandlocalemergencymanagers,onsiteandoffsiteutilityemergencymanagers,localandstatelawenforcementagencies).Thepurposeofthekickoffmeetingwastopresentanoverviewoftheworkeffort,identifykeyagencypersonnel,andindicatethedatarequirementsforthestudy.Specificrequestsforinformationwerepresentedtolocalemergencymanagers.UniquefeaturesofthestudyareawerediscussedtoidentifythelocalconcernsthatshouldbeaddressedbytheETEstudy.Step4Next,aphysicalsurveyoftheroadwaysysteminthestudyareawasconductedtodeterminethegeometricpropertiesofthehighwaysections,thechannelizationoflanesoneachsectionofroadway,whetherthereareanyturnrestrictionsorspecialtreatmentoftrafficatintersections,thetypeandfunctioningoftrafficcontroldevices,gatheringsignaltimingsforpretimedtrafficsignals,andtomakethenecessaryobservationsneededtoestimaterealisticvaluesofroadwaycapacity.1http://lehdmap.did.census.gov/

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationD2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Step5AtelephonesurveyofhouseholdswithintheEPZwasconductedtoidentifyhouseholddynamics,tripgenerationcharacteristics,andevacuationrelateddemographicinformationoftheEPZpopulation.Thisinformationwasusedtodetermineimportantstudyfactorsincludingtheaveragenumberofevacuatingvehiclesusedbyeachhousehold,andthetimerequiredtoperformpreevacuationmobilizationactivities.Step6Acomputerizedrepresentationofthephysicalroadwaysystem,calledalinknodeanalysisnetwork,wasdevelopedusingtheUNITESsoftwaredevelopedbyKLD.Oncethegeometryofthenetworkwascompleted,thenetworkwascalibratedusingtheinformationgatheredduringtheroadsurvey(Step4).Estimatesofhighwaycapacityforeachlinkandotherlinkspecificcharacteristicswereintroducedtothenetworkdescription.Trafficsignaltimingswereinputaccordingly.ThelinknodeanalysisnetworkwasimportedintoaGISmap.2010Censusdatawereoverlaidinthemap,andorigincentroidswheretripswouldbegeneratedduringtheevacuationprocesswereassignedtoappropriatelinks.Step7TheEPZissubdividedinto13ProtectiveActionZones(PAZs).Basedonwinddirectionandspeed,Regions(groupingsofPAZs)thatmaybeadvisedtoevacuate,weredeveloped.Theneedforevacuationcanoccuroverarangeoftimeofday,dayofweek,seasonal,andweatherrelatedconditions.Scenariosweredevelopedtocapturethevariationinevacuationdemand,highwaycapacity,andmobilizationtime,fordifferenttimeofday,dayoftheweek,timeofyear,andweatherconditions.Step8TheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIImodel,whichintegratesthedynamictrafficassignmentanddistributionmodel,DTRAD,withtheevacuationsimulationmodel,wascreatedforaprototypeevacuationcase-theevacuationoftheentireEPZforarepresentativescenario.Step9Aftercreatingthisinputstream,theDYNEVIISystemwasexecutedontheprototypeevacuationcasetocomputeevacuatingtrafficroutingpatternsconsistentwiththeappropriateNRCguidelines.DYNEVIIcontainsanextensivesuiteofdatadiagnosticswhichcheckthecompletenessandconsistencyoftheinputdataspecified.Theanalystreviewsallwarninganderrormessagesproducedbythemodelandthencorrectsthedatabasetocreateaninputstreamthatproperlyexecutestocompletion.Themodelassignsdestinationstoallorigincentroidsconsistentwitha(general)radialevacuationoftheEPZandShadowRegion.Theanalystmayoptionallysupplementand/orreplacethesemodelassigneddestinations,basedonprofessionaljudgment,afterstudyingthetopologyoftheanalysishighwaynetwork.Themodelproduceslinkandnetworkwidemeasuresofeffectivenessaswellasestimatesofevacuationtime.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationD3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Step10Theresultsgeneratedbytheprototypeevacuationcasearecriticallyexamined.Theexaminationincludesobservingtheanimatedgraphics(usingtheEVANsoftwarewhichoperatesondataproducedbyDYNEVII)andreviewingthestatisticsoutputbythemodel.Thisisalaborintensiveactivity,requiringthedirectparticipationofskilledengineerswhopossessthenecessarypracticalexperiencetointerprettheresultsandtodeterminethecausesofanyperceivedproblemsreflectedintheresults.Essentially,theapproachistoidentifythosebottlenecksinthenetworkthatrepresentlocationswherecongestedconditionsarepronouncedandtoidentifythecauseofthiscongestion.Thiscausecantakemanyforms,eitherasexcessdemandduetohighratesoftripgeneration,improperrouting,ashortfallofcapacity,orasaquantitativeflawinthewaythephysicalsystemwasrepresentedintheinputstream.Thisexaminationleadstooneoftwoconclusions: Theresultsaresatisfactoryor TheinputstreammustbemodifiedaccordinglyThisdecisionrequires,ofcourse,theapplicationoftheuser'sjudgmentandexperiencebasedupontheresultsobtainedinpreviousapplicationsofthemodelandacomparisonoftheresultsofthelatestprototypeevacuationcaseiterationwiththepreviousones.Iftheresultsaresatisfactoryintheopinionoftheuser,thentheprocesscontinueswithStep13.Otherwise,proceedtoStep11.Step11Therearemany"treatments"availabletotheuserinresolvingapparentproblems.Thesetreatmentsrangefromdecisionstoreroutethetrafficbyassigningadditionalevacuationdestinationsforoneormoresources,imposingturnrestrictionswheretheycanproducesignificantimprovementsincapacity,changingthecontroltreatmentatcriticalintersectionssoastoprovideimprovedserviceforoneormoremovements,orinprescribingspecifictreatmentsforchannelizingtheflowsoastoexpeditethemovementoftrafficalongmajorroadwaysystems.Such"treatments"taketheformofmodificationstotheoriginalprototypeevacuationcaseinputstream.Alltreatmentsaredesignedtoimprovetherepresentationofevacuationbehavior.Step12Asnotedabove,thechangestotheinputstreammustbeimplementedtoreflectthemodificationsundertakeninStep11.Atthecompletionofthisactivity,theprocessreturnstoStep9wheretheDYNEVIISystemisagainexecuted.Step13Evacuationoftransitdependentsandspecialfacilitiesareincludedintheevacuationanalysis.Fixedroutingfortransitbusesandforschoolbuses,ambulances,andothertransitvehiclesareintroducedintothefinalprototypeevacuationcasedataset.DYNEVIIgeneratesroutespecificspeeds,overtime,foruseintheestimationofevacuationtimesforthetransitdependentand EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationD4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5specialfacilitypopulationgroups.Step14Theprototypeevacuationcasewasusedasthebasisforgeneratingallregionandscenariospecificevacuationcasestobesimulated.ThisprocesswasautomatedthroughtheUNITESuserinterface.Foreachspecificcase,thepopulationtobeevacuated,thetripgenerationdistributions,thehighwaycapacityandspeeds,andotherfactorsareadjustedtoproduceacustomizedcasespecificdataset.Step15AllevacuationcasesareexecutedusingtheDYNEVIISystemtocomputeETE.Onceresultswereavailable,qualitycontrolprocedureswereusedtoassuretheresultswereconsistent,dynamicroutingwasreasonable,andtrafficcongestion/bottleneckswereaddressedproperly.Step16Oncevehicularevacuationresultswereaccepted,averagetravelspeedsfortransitandspecialfacilityrouteswereusedtocomputeevacuationtimeestimatesfortransitdependentpermanentresidents,schools,hospitals,andotherspecialfacilities.Step17Thesimulationresultswereanalyzed,tabulated,andgraphed.Theresultswerethendocumented,asrequiredbyNUREG/CR7002.Step18Followingthecompletionofdocumentationactivities,theETEcriteriachecklistwascompleted.Anappropriatereportreferencewasprovidedforeachcriterionprovidedinthechecklist.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationD5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5 FigureD1.FlowDiagramofActivitiesCreateGISBaseMap GatherCensusBlockandDemographicDataforStudyArea FieldSurveyofRoadwayswithinStudyAreaConductKickoffMeetingwithStakeholdersCreateandCalibrateLinkNodeAnalysisNetworkDevelopEvacuationRegionsandScenariosCreateandDebugDYNEVIIInputStreamConductTelephoneSurveyandDevelopTripGenerationCharacteristics ExecuteDYNEVIIforPrototypeEvacuationCaseB A Step1Step2Step3Step4Step5Step6Step7Step8Step9ExamineResultsofPrototypeEvacuationCaseusingEVANandDYNEVIIOutputModifyEvacuationDestinationsand/orDevelopTrafficControlTreatments ABModifyDatabasetoReflectChangestoPrototypeEvacuationCaseEstablishTransitandSpecialFacilityEvacuationRoutesandUpdateDYNEVIIDatabase GenerateDYNEVIIInputStreamsforAllEvacuationCasesExecuteDYNEVIItoComputeETEforAllEvacuationCasesUseDYNEVIIAverageSpeedOutputtoComputeETEforTransitandSpecialFacilityRoutes DocumentationCompleteETECriteriaChecklist ResultsSatisfactory Step10 Step11 Step12 Step13 Step14 Step15 Step16 Step17 Step18 APPENDIXESpecialFacilityData EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationE1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5E. SPECIALFACILITYDATAThefollowingtableslistpopulationinformation,asofJune2011,forspecialfacilitiesthatarelocatedwithintheVCSNSEPZ.Specialfacilitiesaredefinedasschools,daycarecenters,hospitalsandothermedicalcarefacilities,andcorrectionalfacilities.Transientpopulationdataisincludedinthetableforrecreationalareas.Employmentdataareincludedinthetableformajoremployers.Eachtableisgroupedbycounty.Thelocationofthefacilityisdefinedbyitsstraightlinedistance(miles),direction(magneticbearing)fromthecenterpointoftheplant,andbyitsPAZ.Mapsidentifyingthelocationofeachspecialfacility,recreationalarea,andmajoremployerarealsoprovided.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationE2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableE1.SchoolswithintheEPZ

PAZDistance(miles)DirectionSchoolNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEnrollmentStaffFAIRFIELDCOUNTYA26.4NNEMcCroreyListonElementarySchool1978STHY215SouthBlair(803)635949021937C211.1EKellyMillerElementarySchool255KellyMillerRdWinnsboro(803)635296127050FairfieldCountySubtotal:

48987LEXINGTONCOUNTYD29.5SAbnerMontessoriSchool432EBoundaryStreetChapin(803)345942811620D29.3SSWAlternativeAcademy107ColumbiaAveChapin(803)309942112017D211.2SChapinElementarySchool940OldBushRiverRdChapin(803)3099421845105D29.2SChapinHighSchool300ColumbiaAveChapin(803)30994211,293156D211.1SChapinMiddleSchool1130OldLexingtonHighwayChapin(803)30994211,100122D210.8SCrookedCreekParkAfterschoolProgram*1098OldLexingtonHighwayChapin(803)345618110020LexingtonCountySubtotal:3,474420NEWBERRYCOUNTYE29.1SWLittleMountainElementary692MillStLittleMountain(803)945772137340E210.9WSWMidCarolinaHighSchool6794USHY76Prosperity(803)364213469987E210.9WSWMidCarolinaMiddleSchool6834USHY76Prosperity(803)364363460075F26.7WSWPomariaGarmanyElementary7288USHY176Pomaria(803)321265139250NewberryCountySubtotal:

2,064252EPZTOTAL:6,027759*ThesestudentsatCrookedCreekParkAfterschoolProgramarealreadyincludedintheenrollmentsforChapinElementarySchoolandChapinMiddleSchoolandarethereforenotincludedintotalenrollment.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationE3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureE1.SchoolswithintheEPZ EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationE4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableE2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZPAZDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCapacityCurrentCensusAmbulatoryPatientsWheelchairPatientsBedriddenPatientsLEXINGTONCOUNTYD29.5SGenerationsofChapin431E.BoundaryStChapin(803)3451911646030153LexingtonCountySubtotals:646030153TOTAL:646030153 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationE5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureE2.MedicalFacilitieswithintheEPZ EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationE6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableE3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZPAZDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneEmployees (maxshift)%NonEPZEmployees (NonEPZ)FAIRFIELDCOUNTYA0VCSummerNuclearStation576StairwayRdJenkinsville (803)931520869390%624 FairfieldCountySubtotals:693624LEXINGTONCOUNTYD29.6SCentralLabelProducts300EBoundarySt.Chapin(803)34554817525%19 D29.6SCoreLogic450E.BoundarySt.Chapin(803)941120013567%90 D29.1SElletBrothers267ColumbiaAveChapin(803)345375110068%68 D29.5SGeneralInformationServices917ChapinRoadChapin(803)941190034078.5%267LexingtonCountySubtotals:650444NEWBERRYCOUNTYE211.6WSWGeorgiaPacificCorporation 191GeorgiaPacificBlvdProsperity (803)364347210090%90 NewberryCountySubtotals:10090TOTAL:1,4431,158 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationE7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureE3.MajorEmployerswithintheEPZ EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationE8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableE4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZPAZDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesFAIRFIELDCOUNTYA12.6NHighway215PublicBoatRampSTHY215Jenkinsville (803)7483000135A12.4NLakeMonticelloParkBalticCircleJenkinsville (803)7483000135A15.3NUnnamedBoatRampMeadowLakeRdJenkinsville (803)748300052A15.4NUnnamedBoatRampMeadowLakeRdJenkinsville (803)7483000135A25.7NUnnamedBeachHemlockLnJenkinsville (803)74830002710F12.7WSWCanon'sCreekBoatRampforParrReservoir BroadRiverRdPomaria(803)7483000135F13.6WNWUnnamedBoatRampforParrReservoir BroadRiverRdPomaria(803)7483000135FairfieldCountySubtotals:9737LEXINGTONCOUNTYD211SLakeMurrayGolfCenter2032OldHiltonRdChapin(803)345611296LexingtonCountySubtotals:96NEWBERRYCOUNTYE29.2WSWMidCarolinaClub3593KiblerBridgeRdProsperity (803)36431931510NewberryCountySubtotals:1510TOTAL:12153 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationE9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureE4.RecreationalAreaswithintheEPZ EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationE10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableE5.LodgingFacilitieswithintheEPZPAZDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneTransientsVehiclesTherearenolodgingfacilitieswithintheVCSummerEPZSubtotals:00TOTAL:00

TableE6.CorrectionalFacilitieswithintheEPZPAZDistance(miles)DirectionFacilityNameStreetAddressMunicipalityPhoneCapacityTherearenoCorrectionalFacilitieswithintheVCSummerEPZ.Subtotal:0TOTAL:0 APPENDIXFTelephoneSurvey EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5F. TELEPHONESURVEYF.1 INTRODUCTIONThedevelopmentofevacuationtimeestimatesfortheEmergencyPlanningZone(EPZ)oftheVCSNSSiterequirestheidentificationoftravelpatterns,carownershipandhouseholdsizeofthepopulationwithintheEPZ.DemographicinformationcanbeobtainedfromCensusdata.Theuseofthisdatahasseverallimitationswhenappliedtoemergencyplanning.First,theCensusdatadonotencompasstherangeofinformationneededtoidentifythetimerequiredforpreliminaryactivities(mobilization)thatmustbeundertakenpriortoevacuatingthearea.Secondly,CensusdatadonotcontainattitudinalresponsesneededfromthepopulationoftheEPZandconsequentlymaynotaccuratel yrepresenttheanticipatedbehavioralcharacteristicsoftheevacuatingpopulace.TheseconcernsareaddressedbyconductingatelephonesurveyofarepresentativesampleoftheEPZpopulation.Thesurveyisdesignedtoelicitinformationfromthepublicconcerningfamilydemographicsandestimatesofresponsetimestowelldefinedevents.Thedesignofthesurveyincludesalimitednumberofquestionsoftheform"Whatwouldyoudoif-?"andotherquestionsregardingactivitieswithwhichtherespondentisfamiliar("Howlongdoesittakeyouto-?")

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5F.2 SURVEYINSTRUMENTANDSAMPLINGPLANAttachmentApresentsthefinalsurveyinstrumentusedinthisstudy.Adraftoftheinstrumentwassubmittedtostakeholdersforcomment.Commentswerereceivedandthesurveyinstrumentwasmodifiedaccordingly,priortoconductingthesurvey.Followingthecompletionoftheinstrument,asamplingplanwasdeveloped.Asamplesizeofapproximately550completedsurveyformsyieldsresultswithasamplingerrorof+/-4%atthe95%confidencelevel.ThesamplemustbedrawnfromtheEPZpopulation.Consequently,alistofzipcodesintheEPZwasdevelopedusingGISsoftware.ThislistisshowninTableF1.Alongwitheachzipcode,anestimateofthepopulationandnumberofhouseholdsineachareawasdeterminedbyoverlayingCensusdataandtheEPZboundary,againusingGISsoftware.Theproportionalnumberofdesiredcompletedsurveyinterviewsforeachareawasidentified,asshowninTableF1.DuetothesparsepopulationofthezipcodeswithintheEPZ,theareawhichwassampledwasexpanded(withinthezipcodesidentified)sothatanappropriatesamplecouldbegathered.Theoversamplingwascomputedinproportiontotheentirezipcodepopulation.TheapproachisjustifiedonthebasisthattheareaoutsideoftheEPZhassimilarlanduseandhousingcharacteristicsasdoestheEPZ.Thecompletedsurveyadheredtotheoversamplingplan.Thecompletedsurveyadheredtothesamplingplan.TableF1.VCSNSTelephoneSurveySamplingPlanZipCodePopulationwithinEPZ(2000)HouseholdsRequiredSampleOversamplingDuetoSparsePopulation290151,1733714914290362,495943124102290635762052720429065733289386290751,6926768923291262,16485611321291274141612157291801,93067188122Totals:11,1774,172550550AverageHouseholdSize:2.68TotalSampleRequired:550ThissurveysamplingplanwasdevelopedusingtheEPZboundaryasdefinedin2007.TheEPZwasexpandedinLexingtonCountyin2010,causinganincreaseintheEPZpopulationofapproximately1,187people,mostlyinthe29036zipcode.ItisassumedthattheincreasedpopulationinLexingtonCountywillnotsignificantlyimpacttheresultsofthetelephonesurvey.Thus,theresultsofthesurveybasedontheexistingEPZareadaptedforthisstudy.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5F.3 SURVEYRESULTSTheresultsofthesurveyfallintotwocategories.First,thehouseholddemographicsoftheareacanbeidentified.Demographicinformationincludessuchfactorsashouseholdsize,automobileownership,andautomobileavailability.Thedistributionsofthetimetoperformcertainpreevacuationactivitiesarethesecondcategoryofsurveyresults.Thesedataareprocessedtodevelopthetripgenerationdistributionsusedintheevacuationmodelingeffort,asdiscussedinSection5.Areviewofthesurveyinstrumentrevealsthatseveralquestionshavea"don'tknow"(DK)or"refused"entryforaresponse.ItisacceptedpracticeinconductingsurveysofthistypetoaccepttheanswersofarespondentwhooffersaDKresponseforafewquestionsorwhorefusestoanswerafewquestions.ToaddresstheissueofoccasionalDK/refusedresponsesfromalargesample,thepracticeistoassumethatthedistributionoftheseresponsesisthesameastheunderlyingdistributionofthepositiveresponses.Ineffect,theDK/refusedresponsesareignoredandthedistributionsarebaseduponthepositivedatathatisacquired.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5F.3.1 HouseholdDemographicResultsHouseholdSizeFigureF1presentsthedistributionofhouseholdsizewithintheEPZ.Theaveragehouseholdcontains2.68people.Theestimatedhouseholdsize(2.68persons)usedtodeterminethesurveysample(TableF1)wasdrawnfromCensusdata.TheagreementbetweentheaveragehouseholdsizeobtainedfromthesurveyandfromtheCensusisanindicationofthereliabilityofthesurvey.FigureF1.HouseholdSizeintheEPZ0%10%20%30%40%

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%ofHouseholds HouseholdSizeVCSNSHouseholdSize EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5AutomobileOwnershipTheaveragenumberofautomobilesavailableperhouseholdintheEPZis2.22.Itshouldbenotedthatapproximately4.76percentofhouseholdsdonothaveaccesstoanautomobile.ThedistributionofautomobileownershipispresentedinFigureF2.FigureF3andFigureF4presenttheautomobileavailabilitybyhouseholdsize.Notethatthemajorityofhouseholdswithoutaccesstoacararesinglepersonhouseholds.Asexpected,nearlyallhouseholdsof2ormorepeoplehaveaccesstoatleastonevehicle.FigureF2.HouseholdVehicleAvailability0%10%20%30%40%

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%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVCSNSVehicleAvailability EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureF3.VehicleAvailability1to5PersonHouseholdsFigureF4.VehicleAvailability6to9+PersonHouseholds0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize15PersonHouseholds 1Person2People3People4People5People0%20%

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%ofHouseholds VehiclesDistributionofVehiclesbyHHSize69+PersonHouseholds 6People7People8People9+People EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5CommutersFigureF5presentsthedistributionofthenumberofcommutersineachhousehold.Commutersaredefinedashouseholdmemberswhotraveltoworkorcollegeonadailybasis.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.19commutersineachhouseholdintheEPZ.FigureF5.CommutersinHouseholdsintheEPZ0%10%20%30%

40%50%01234+%ofHouseholds NumberofCommutersVCSNSCommuters EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5CommuterTravelModesFigureF6presentsthemodeoftravelthatcommutersuseonadailybasis.Thevastmajorityofcommutersusetheirprivateautomobilestotraveltowork.Thedatashowsanaverageof1.01employeespervehicle,assuming2peoplepervehicle-onaverage-forcarpools.FigureF6.ModesofTravelintheEPZF.3.2 EvacuationResponseSeveralquestionswereaskedtogaugethepopulation'sresponsetoanemergency.Thesearenowdiscussed:"Howmanyofthevehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?"TheresponseisshowninFigureF7.Onaverage,evacuatinghouseholdswoulduse1.49vehicles."Wouldyourfamilyawaitthereturnofotherfamilymemberspriortoevacuatingthearea?"Ofthesurveyparticipantswhoresponded,78percentsaidtheywouldawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembersbeforeevacuatingand22percentindicatedthattheywouldnotawaitthereturnofotherfamilymembers.0.0%0.5%0.6%97.5%1.4%0.5%0%20%40%

60%

80%100%

120%RailBusWalk/BikeDriveAloneCarpool(2+)ParkandRide%ofHouseholds TravelModeVCSNSTravelModetoWork EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureF7.NumberofVehiclesUsedforEvacuationF.3.3 TimeDistributionResultsThesurveyaskedseveralquestionsabouttheamountoftimeittakestoperformcertainpreevacuationactivities.Theseactivitiesinvolveactionstakenbyresidentsduringthecourseoftheirdaytodaylives.Thus,theanswersfallwithintherealmoftheresponder'sexperience.ThemobilizationdistributionsprovidedbelowaretheresultofhavingappliedtheanalysisdescribedinSection5.4.1onthecomponentactivitiesofthemobilization."Howlongdoesittakethecommutertocompletepreparationforleavingwork?"FigureF8presentsthecumulativedistribution;inallcases,theactivityiscompletedbyabout90minutes.Seventyfivepercentcanleavewithin30minutes.0%20%40%60%80%100%0123456789+

%ofHouseholds NumberofVehiclesVehiclesUsedforEvacuation EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureF8.TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork/School"Howlongwouldittakethecommutertotravelhome?"FigureF9presentstheworktohometraveltimefortheEPZ.About85percentofcommuterscanarrivehomewithin40minutesofleavingwork;allwithin90minutes.FigureF9.WorktoHomeTravelTime0%20%40%60%80%100%020406080100

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveWork0%20%40%

60%80%100%020406080100

%ofCommuters TravelTime(min)WorktoHomeTravel EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5"Howlongwouldittakethefamilytopackclothing,securethehouse,andloadthecar?"FigureF10presentsthetimerequiredtoprepareforleavingonanevacuationtrip.Inmanywaysthisactivitymimicsafamily'spreparationforashortholidayorweekendawayfromhome.Hence,theresponsesrepresenttheexperienceoftheresponderinperformingsimilaractivities.ThedistributionshowninFigureF10hasalong"tail."About60percentofhouseholdscanbereadytoleavehomewithin30minutes;theremaininghouseholdsrequireuptoanadditionalonehourandfortyfiveminutes.FigureF10.TimetoPrepareHomeforEvacuationF.4 CONCLUSIONSThetelephonesurveyprovidesvaluable,relevantdataassociatedwiththeEPZpopulation,whichhavebeenusedtoquantifydemographicsspecifictotheEPZ,and"mobilizationtime"whichcaninfluenceevacuationtimeestimates.0%20%40%60%80%100%060120180

%ofHouseholds TravelTime(min)TimetoPreparetoLeaveHome EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5ATTACHMENTATelephoneSurveyInstrument EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TelephoneSurveyInstrumentHello,mynameis___________andI'mworkingforFirstMarketResearchonasurveyforFairfield,Lexington,Newberry,andRichlandCountiestoidentifylocalbehaviorduringemergencysituations.Thisinformationwillbeusedforemergencyplanningandwillbesharedwithlocalofficialstoenhanceemergencyresponseplansinyourareaforallhazards;emergencyplanningforsomehazardsmayrequireevacuation.Yourresponseswillgreatlycontributetolocalemergencypreparedness.Iwillnotaskforyourname.COL.1UnusedCOL.2UnusedCOL.3UnusedCOL.4UnusedCOL.5UnusedSexCOL.81Male2FemaleINTERVIEWER:

ASKTOSPEAKTOTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLDORTHESPOUSEOFTHEHEADOFHOUSEHOLD.(Terminatecallifnotaresidence.)DONOTASK:1A.Recordareacode.ToBeDeterminedCOL.9111B.Recordexchangenumber.ToBeDeterminedCOL.12142.Whatisyourhomezipcode?COL.15193A.Intotal,howmanycars,orothervehiclesareusuallyavailabletothehousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.201 ONE2 TWO3 THREE4 FOUR5 FIVE 6

SIX7 SEVEN8 EIGHT 9

NINEORMORE0 ZERO(NONE)XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.4Q.3BQ.3B3B.Inanemergency,couldyougetarideoutoftheareawithaneighbororfriend?COL.211 YES2 NOXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.54.Howmanypeopleusuallyliveinthishousehold?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.221 ONE2 TWO3 THREE4 FOUR5 FIVE 6

SIX7 SEVEN8 EIGHT 9

NINECOL.230 TEN1 ELEVEN2 TWELVE3 THIRTEEN4 FOURTEEN5 FIFTEEN6 SIXTEEN7 SEVENTEEN8 EIGHTEEN9 NINETEENORMOREXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED5.Howmanyadultsinthehouseholdcommutetoajob,ortocollegeonadailybasis?COL.240 ZERO1 ONE2 TWO 3

THREE4 FOURORMORE5 DON'TKNOW/REFUSEDSKIPTOQ.9Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.6Q.9INTERVIEWER:

ForeachpersonidentifiedinQuestion5,askQuestions6,7,and8.6.Thinkingaboutcommuter#1,howdoesthatpersonusuallytraveltoworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)Commuter#1COL.25Commuter#2COL.26Commuter#3COL.27Commuter#4COL.28Rail1111Bus2222Walk/Bicycle3333DriveAlone4444Carpool2ormorepeople5555Don'tknow/Refused66667.Howmuchtimeonaverage,wouldittakeCommuter#1totravelhomefromworkorcollege?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.29COL.30COL.31COL.3215MINUTESORLESS14650MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS14650MINUTES2610MINUTES25155MINUTES2610MINUTES25155MINUTES31115MINUTES356-1HOUR31115MINUTES356-1HOUR41620MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES41620MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.552125MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES52125MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES62630MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES62630MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES73135MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS73135MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS83640MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)83640MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)94145MINUTES994145MINUTES900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.33COL.34COL.35COL.3615MINUTESORLESS14650MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS14650MINUTES2610MINUTES25155MINUTES2610MINUTES25155MINUTES31115MINUTES356-1HOUR31115MINUTES356-1HOUR41620MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES41620MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES52125MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES52125MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES62630MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES62630MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES73135MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS73135MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS83640MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)83640MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)94145MINUTES994145MINUTES900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED8.ApproximatelyhowmuchtimedoesittakeCommuter#1tocompletepreparationforleavingworkorcollegepriortostartingthetriphome?(REPEATQUESTIONFOREACHCOMMUTER)(DONOTREADANSWERS)COMMUTER#1COMMUTER#2COL.37COL.38COL.39COL.4015MINUTESORLESS14650MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS14650MINUTES2610MINUTES25155MINUTES2610MINUTES25155MINUTES31115MINUTES356-1HOUR31115MINUTES356-1HOUR41620MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES41620MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.552125MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES52125MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES62630MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES62630MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES73135MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS73135MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS83640MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)83640MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)94145MINUTES994145MINUTES900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDCOMMUTER#3COMMUTER#4COL.41COL.42COL.43COL.4415MINUTESORLESS14650MINUTES15MINUTESORLESS14650MINUTES2610MINUTES25155MINUTES2610MINUTES25155MINUTES31115MINUTES356-1HOUR31115MINUTES356-1HOUR41620MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES41620MINUTES4OVER1HOUR,BUTLESSTHAN1HOUR15MINUTES52125MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES52125MINUTES5BETWEEN1HOUR16MINUTESAND1HOUR30MINUTES62630MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES62630MINUTES6BETWEEN1HOUR31MINUTESAND1HOUR45MINUTES73135MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS73135MINUTES7BETWEEN1HOUR46MINUTESAND2HOURS83640MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)83640MINUTES8OVER2HOURS(SPECIFY______)94145MINUTES994145MINUTES900XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED9.Ifyouwereadvisedbylocalauthoritiestoevacuate,howmuchtimewouldittakethehouseholdtopackclothing,medications,securethehouse,loadthecar,andcompletepreparationspriortoevacuatingthearea?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.45COL.461LESSTHAN15MINUTES13HOURSTO3HOURS15MINUTES21530MINUTES23HOURS16MINUTESTO3HOURS30MINUTES33145MINUTES33HOURS31MINUTESTO3HOURS45MINUTES446MINUTES-1HOUR43HOURS46MINUTESTO4HOURS51HOURTO1HOUR15MINUTES54HOURSTO4HOURS15MINUTES61HOUR16MINUTESTO1HOUR30MINUTES64HOURS16MINUTESTO4HOURS30MINUTES71HOUR31MINUTESTO1HOUR45MINUTES74HOURS31MINUTESTO4HOURS45MINUTES81HOUR46MINUTESTO2HOURS84HOURS46MINUTESTO5HOURS EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationF17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.592HOURSTO2HOURS15MINUTES95HOURSTO5HOURS30MINUTES02HOURS16MINUTESTO2HOURS30MINUTES05HOURS31MINUTESTO6HOURSX2HOURS31MINUTESTO2HOURS45MINUTESXOVER6HOURS(SPECIFY_______)Y2HOURS46MINUTESTO3HOURSCOL.471DON'TKNOW/REFUSED10.Pleasechooseoneofthefollowing(READANSWERS):A.

Iwouldawaitthereturnofhouseholdcommuterstoevacuatetogether.B.

Iwouldevacuateindependentlyandmeetotherhouseholdmemberslater.COL.501A2BXDON'TKNOW/REFUSED11.Howmanyvehicleswouldyourhouseholduseduringanevacuation?(DONOTREADANSWERS)COL.511ONE2TWO3THREE4FOUR5FIVE6SIX7SEVEN8EIGHT9NINEORMORE0ZERO(NONE)XDON'TKNOW/REFUSEDThankyouverymuch._______________________________(TELEPHONENUMBERCALLED)IFREQUESTED:Foradditionalinformation,contactyourCountyEmergencyManagementAgencyduringnormalbusinesshours. CountyEMAPhoneFairfield(803)6355505Lexington(803)7858343Newberry(803)3212135Richland(803)5763400 APPENDIXGTrafficManagementPlan EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationG1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5G. TRAFFICMANAGEMENTPLANNUREG/CR7002indicatesthattheexistingTCPsandACPsidentifiedbytheoffsiteagenciesshouldbeusedintheevacuationsimulationmodeling.ThetrafficandaccesscontrolplansfortheEPZarediscussedinthefollowingdocuments: FairfieldCountyEmergencyOperationsPlan,AnnexE,Appendix7,PageE15 LexingtonCountyEmergencyOperationsPlan,Annex25a,Appendix4,Page25a27 NewberryCountyEmergencyOperationsPlan,AnnexQ,Appendix3,PageQ57 RichlandCountyEmergencyOperationsPlan,Annex25C,Appendix3,Page58 SouthCarolinaOperationalRadiologicalEmergencyResponse,Part3TabletoFigure1,Page312TheseplanswerereviewedandtheTCPsandACPsweremodeledaccordingly.FigureG1isamapoftheexistingtrafficcontrolpoints.G.1 TrafficControlPointsAsdiscussedinSection9,trafficcontrolpointsatintersections(whicharecontrolled)aremodeledasactuatedsignals.Ifanintersect ionhasapretimedsignal,stop,oryieldcontrol,andtheintersectionisidentifiedasatrafficcontrolpoint,thecontroltypewaschangedtoanactuatedsignalintheDYNEVIIsystem.TableK2providesthecontroltypeandnodenumberforthosenodeswhicharecontrolled.IftheexistingcontrolwaschangedduetothepointbeingaTCP,thecontroltypeisindicatedas"TrafficControlPoint"inTableK2.AsdiscussedinSection7.3,thereislimitedtrafficcongestionwithintheEPZ.Assuch,noadditionaltrafficcontrolpointsarerecommend ed.G.2 AccessControlPointsItisassumedthatACPswillbeestablishedwithin2hoursoftheadvisorytoevacuate(ATE)todiscouragethroughtravelersfromusingmajorthroughrouteswhichtraversetheEPZ.TherearenoACPsidentifiedintheexistingemergencyplansforLexingtonandFairfieldCounties.NewberryandRichlandCountyemergencyplansstatethatentrancebarricadeswillbeplacedatallroutesofingressotherthanatTCPs,andentranceintotheareawillbestrictlyenforcedbylocallawenforcement.AsdiscussedinSection3.6,externaltrafficisconsideredonInterstate26,US76,andUS176,whichentertheEPZinNewberryandRichlandCounties,andonUS321intheShadowRegioninFairfieldCounty.TheaccesscontrolprocedurediscussedaboveforNewberryandRichlandCountieswillstoptheflowoftrafficintotheEPZat2hoursaftertheATE,whiletheTCPsalongUS321inFairfieldCounty(SeeFigureG1)canbeusedtostoptheflowoftrafficthroughtheareainFairfieldCounty.Assuch,noadditionalACPsarerecommended.Trafficandaccesscontrolpointsshouldbeperiodicallyreviewedbystateandcountyemergencyplannerswithlocalandstatepoliceagencies.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationG2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureG1.VCSNSTrafficControlPoints APPENDIXHEvacuationRegions EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5H. EVACUATIONREGIONSThisappendixpresentstheevacuationpercentagesforeachEvacuationRegion(TableH1)andmapsofallEvacuationRegions.ThepercentagespresentedinTableH1arebasedonthemethodologydiscussedinassumption5ofSection2.2andshowninFigure21.NotethebaselineETEstudyassumes20percentofhouseholdswillnotcomplywiththeshelteradvisory,asperSection2.5.2ofNUREG/CR7002.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableH1.PercentofPAZPopulationEvacuatingforEachRegionRegionDescriptionProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2R012MileRing100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R025MileRing100%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%R03FullEPZ100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%Evacuate2MileRadiusandDownwindto5MilesR04S,SSW100%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R05SW,WSW100%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R06W100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R07WNW,NW100%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R08NNW,N100%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%R09NNE,NE100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%R10ENE,E100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%R11ESE,SE,SSE100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%Evacuate5MileRadiusandDownwindtotheEPZBoundary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helterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuatePAZ(s)ShelterinPlacePAZ(s)Evacuate EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableH1.ContinuedRegionDescriptionProtectiveActionZoneA0A1A2B1B2C1C2D1D2E1E2F1F2StagedEvacuation2MileRadiusEvacuates,thenEvacuateDownwindto5MilesR225MileRing100%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%R23S,SSW100%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R24SW,WSW100%100%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R25W100%20%20%100%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R26WNW,NW100%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%R27NNW,N100%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%R28NNE,NE100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%20%20%R29ENE,E100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%100%20%R30ESE,SE,SSE100%100%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%20%100%20%ShelterinPlaceuntil90%ETEforR01,thenEvacuatePAZ(s)ShelterinPlacePAZ(s)Evacuate EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH1.RegionR01 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH2.RegionR02 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH3.RegionR03 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH4.RegionR04 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH5.RegionR05 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH6.RegionR06 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH7.RegionR07 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH8.RegionR08 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH9.RegionR09 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH10.RegionR10 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH11.RegionR11 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH12.RegionR12 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH13.RegionR13 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH14.RegionR14 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH15.RegionR15 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH16.RegionR16 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH17.RegionR17 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH18.RegionR18 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH19.RegionR19 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH20.RegionR20 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH21.RegionR21 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH22.RegionR22 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH23.RegionR23 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH24.RegionR24 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH25RegionR25 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH26.RegionR26 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH27.RegionR27 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH28.RegionR28 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH29.RegionR29 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationH33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureH30.RegionR30 APPENDIXJRepresentativeInputsandOutputsfromtheDYNEVIISystem EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5J. REPRESENTATIVEINPUTSTOANDOUTPUTSFROMTHEDYNEVIISYSTEMThisappendixpresentsdatainputtoandoutputfromtheDYNEVIISystem.TableJ1providesthevolumeandqueuesforthetenhighestvolumesignalizedintersectionsinthestudyarea.RefertoTableK2andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachintersection.TableJ2providessource(vehicleloading)anddestinationinformationforfiveroadwaysegments(link)intheanalysisnetwork.RefertoTableK1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.TableJ3providesnetwork-widestatistics(averagetraveltime,averagespeedandnumberofvehicles)foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)foreachscenario.Asexpected,Scenarios8and11,whichareicescenarios,exhibittheslowestaveragespeedandlongestaveragetraveltimes.TableJ4providesstatistics(averagespeedandtraveltime)forthemajorevacuationroutes(US76,US176,I26)foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.AsdiscussedinSection7.3andshowninFigures73and74,thereisnomaterialcongestionwithintheEPZ.Consequently,thespeedsshowninthistablereflectfreeflowspeeds.TableJ5providesthenumberofvehiclesdischargedandthecumulativepercentoftotalvehiclesdischargedforeachlinkexitingtheanalysisnetwork,foranevacuationoftheentireEPZ(RegionR03)underScenario1conditions.RefertoTableK1andthefiguresinAppendixKforamapshowingthegeographiclocationofeachlink.FiguresJ1throughJ14plotthetripgenerationtimeversustheETEforeachofthe14Scenariosconsidered.ThedistancebetweenthetripgenerationandETEcurvesisthetraveltime.PlotsoftripgenerationversusETEareindicativeoftheleveloftrafficcongestionduringevacuation.Forlowpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesareclosetogether,indicatingshorttraveltimesandminimaltrafficcongestion.Forhigherpopulationdensitysites,thecurvesarefartherapartindicatinglongertraveltimesandthepresenceoftrafficcongestion.AsseeninFiguresJ1throughJ14,thecurvesarecloselyalignedsincethereisnotrafficcongestionintheEPZ,whichwasdiscussedindetailinSection7.3.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableJ1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersectionsNodeLocationIntersection ControlApproach(UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)393US76/US176andSH27/WoodrowStActuated3923,35003944130TOTAL3,763630US76/US176andKoonRdActuated63170119362,56403924220TOTAL3,687221US76andSH6Actuated2223,045132203970TOTAL3,442218US76andUS176Actuated8521,00706121,75209366420TOTAL3,401222US76andMarinaRdActuated22191070917208212,8730TOTAL3,136 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableJ1.CharacteristicsoftheTenHighestVolumeSignalizedIntersectionsContinuedfromabove.NodeLocationIntersection ControlApproach(UpNode)TotalVolume(Veh)Max.TurnQueue(Veh)225US76andLowmanHomeBarnRdActuated2262,497022411807101580TOTAL2,773809US76andSH219Actuated8081,139284371408109040TOTAL2,757226US76andThreeDogRdActuated2272,38902251230819470818580TOTAL2,617686US76andWessingerRdActuated68771702281,57702271340815130TOTAL2,441810US76andSH34Actuated809996092189608133930TOTAL2,285 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableJ2.SampleSimulationModelInputLinkVehiclesEnteringNetworkonthisLinkDirectionalPreferenceCandidateDestination NodesDestinationCapacity24E,SE8032169886641698806116988614E8664169832233S83911698839516988824675049813W88132161881438108720169868224E81411698847016988032169878113W84011698836345008813216189954E866416988061169881411698101718SW872016988391169883951698116013SE839516988824675088271698 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableJ3.SelectedModelOutputsfortheEvacuationoftheEntireEPZ(RegionR03)Scenario1234567891011121314NetworkWideAverageTravelTime(Min/VehMi)1.031.161.031.171.061.031.171.341.031.171.341.061.201.14NetworkWideAverageSpeed(mph)58.5351.7858.4851.3356.3558.1351.4744.8058.5351.3444.8656.3549.9152.76TotalVehiclesExitingNetwork28,50928,64428,18328,31819,08728,76728,90229,04828,12928,26628,41819,08633,90128,512 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableJ4.AverageEvacuationRouteTravelTime(min)forRegionR03,Scenario1ElapsedTime(hours)1234Route#Length(miles)SpeedTravelTimeSpeedTravelTimeSpeedTravelTimeSpeedTravelTimeInterstate26WB14.6871.712.371.812.374.211.974.311.9Interstate26EB14.6872.012.272.112.274.111.974.811.8US76WB12.8651.714.951.315.050.615.251.714.9US76EB12.8750.615.250.715.250.115.451.614.9US176WB18.6955.420.255.420.256.12056.219.9US176EB18.6954.920.455.320.355.720.155.720.1 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableJ5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1EPZExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)1234VehiclesDischargedDuringtheIndicatedTimeIntervalCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedDuringtheIndicatedTimeInterval37440993111911445.424.684.094.04711955746626692.402.702.422.36922436418679142.993.023.173.231501344035235491.651.901.911.941801306298168431.602.972.982.98541212846775731577926.2522.0520.9520.415925011895256527056.188.949.389.555974691566214522255.787.387.847.866091233514564801.511.651.671.7063631725270.040.080.090.09638321101451520.400.520.530.547072336398969692.873.013.273.42995147685102711181.813.233.763.95

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableJ5.SimulationModelOutputsatNetworkExitLinksforRegionR03,Scenario1ContinuedfrompreviouspageEPZExitLinkElapsedTime(hours)1234VehiclesDischargedDuringtheIndicatedTimeIntervalCumulativePercentofVehiclesDischargedDuringtheIndicatedTimeInterval11112686968889293.313.283.243.2811134221025130213395.214.834.764.731125231055597137730528.526.2126.0925.81131332750105511644.093.533.864.11 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ1.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario1)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario1)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ2.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario2)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ3.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario3)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario3)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ4.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario4)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ5.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario5)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario5)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ6.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario6)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good(Scenario6)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ7.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Rain(Scenario7)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ8.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Ice(Scenario8)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ9.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,GoodWeather(Scenario9)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Good(Scenario9)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ10.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Rain(Scenario10)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ11.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Weekend,Midday,Ice(Scenario11)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ12.ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,GoodWeather(Scenario12)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Weekend,Evening,Good(Scenario12)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ13.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,Construction(Scenario13)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationWinter,Midweek,Midday,Good,Construction (Scenario13)TripGenerationETE EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationJ22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureJ14.ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,GoodWeather,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)0%20%40%

60%

80%100%0306090120150180210240270300 PercentofTotalVehiclesElapsedTime(min)ETEandTripGenerationSummer,Midweek,Midday,Good,RoadwayImpact(Scenario14)TripGenerationETE APPENDIXKEvacuationRoadwayNetwork EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5K. EVACUATIONROADWAYNETWORKAsdiscussedinSection1.3,alinknodeanalysisnetworkwasconstructedtomodeltheroadwaynetworkwithinthestudyarea.FigureK1providesanoverviewofthelinknodeanalysisnetwork.Thefigurehasbeendividedupinto49moredetailedfigures(FigureK2throughFigureK50)whichshoweachofthelinksandnodesinthenetwork.TheanalysisnetworkwascalibratedusingtheobservationsmadeduringthefieldsurveyconductedinMay2011.TableK1liststhecharacteristicsofeachroadwaysectionmodeledintheETEanalysis.Eachlinkisidentifiedbyitsroadnameandtheupstreamanddownstreamnodenumbers.Thegeographiclocationofeachlinkcanbeobservedbyreferencingthemap(FigureK2throughFigureK50)correspondingtothegridnumberprovidedinTableK1.TheroadwayidentifiedinTableK1isbasedonthefollowingcriteria: Freeway:limitedaccesshighway,2ormorelanesineachdirection,highfreeflowspeeds Freewayramp:rampontooroffofalimitedaccesshighway Majorarterial:3ormorelanesineachdirection Minorarterial:2ormorelanesineachdirection Collector:singlelaneineachdirection Localroadways:singlelaneineachdirection,localroadswithlowfreeflowspeedsTheterm,"No.ofLanes"inTableK1identifiesthenumberoflanesthatextendthroughoutthelengthofthelink.Manylinkshaveadditionallanesontheimmediateapproachtoanintersection(turnpockets);thesehavebeenrecordedandenteredintotheinputstreamfortheDYNEVIISystem.AsdiscussedinSection1.3,lanewidthandshoulderwidthwerenotphysicallymeasuredduringtheroadsurvey.Rather,estimatesofthesemeasureswerebasedonvisualobservationsandrecordedimages.TableK2identifieseachnodeinthenetworkthatiscontrolledandthetypeofcontrol(stopsign,yieldsign,pretimedsignal,actuatedsignal,trafficcontrolpoint)atthatnode.UncontrollednodesarenotincludedinTableK2.Thegeographiclocationofeachnodecanbeobservedbyreferencingthemap(FigureK2throughFigureK50)correspondingtothegripnumberprovidedinTableK2.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK1.OverviewofLinkNodeAnalysis EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK2.Grid1 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK3.Grid2 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK4.Grid3 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK5.Grid4 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK6.Grid5 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK7.Grid6 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK8.Grid7 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK9.Grid8 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK10.Grid9 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK11.Grid10 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK12.Grid11 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK13.Grid12 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK14.Grid13 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK15.Grid14 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK16.Grid15 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK17.Grid16 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK19KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK18.Grid17 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK20KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK19.Grid18 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK21KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK20.Grid19 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK22KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK21.Grid20 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK23KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK22.Grid21 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK24KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK23.Grid22 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK25KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK24.Grid23 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK26KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK25.Grid24 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK27KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK26.Grid25 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK28KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK27.Grid26 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK29KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK28.Grid27 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK30KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK29.Grid28 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK31KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK30.Grid29 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK32KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK31.Grid30 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK33KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK32.Grid31 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK34KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK33.Grid32 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK35KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK34.Grid33 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK36KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK35.Grid34 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK37KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK36.Grid35 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK38KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK37.Grid36 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK39KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK38.Grid37 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK40KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK39.Grid38 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK41KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK40.Grid39 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK42KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK41.Grid40 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK43KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK42.Grid41 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK44KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK43.Grid42 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK45KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK44.Grid43 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK46KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK45.Grid44 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK47KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK46.Grid45 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK48KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK47.Grid46 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK49KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK48.Grid47 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK50KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK49.Grid48 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK51KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5FigureK50.Grid49 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK52KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableK1.EvacuationRoadwayNetworkCharacteristicsLink#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber113Rt213collector 12651120170050212187Rt215collector 150211201700552132126Rt34collector 2206112017005584333Rt213collector 2034112017004521545Rt215collector 1538112017005521646Rt215collector 1786112017005021751Rt215collector 5632112017005521867Rt215collector 4286112017005021978Rt215collector 373411201700502910814Rt215collector 773112017004529118168Rt213collector 23611122170065291294BradhamBlvdcollector 125611201700502113109BradhamBlvdcollector 1186112017004521141110BradhamBlvdcollector 1928112017004520151211BradhamBlvdcollector 2158112017004520161312BradhamBlvdcollector 18101120170045201713832SLakeAccessRdminorarterial1891212019004020181415Rt215collector 3193112017004529191516Rt215collector 5461112017005529201617Rt215collector 2010112017506029211718Rt215collector 2177112017006029221819Rt215collector 1491112017006029231920Rt215collector 6068112017006029 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK53KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber242021Rt215collector 4779112017006029252122Rt215collector 4009112017006029262223Rt215collector 8291112017006030272324Rt215collector 7098112017005536282425Rt215collector 8172112017006036292527Rt215collector 3235112017006036302627Rt269collector 1549112017005537312685Rt269collector 3072112017006037322726Rt269collector 1549112017005537332728Rt215collector 2428112017006037342829Rt215collector 6876112017006037352930Rt215collector 2159112017005537363031Rt215collector 1723112017005537373132Rt215collector 1780112017005537383334Rt213collector 5185112017006021393435Rt213collector 3862112017006021403536Rt213collector 21841120170060214135803SRS2048collector 5255112017005521423637Rt213collector 2363112017005521433738Rt213collector 1281112017004521443839Rt213collector 949112017004521453940Rt213collector 1339112017004521464041Rt213collector 2106112017004521474142Rt213collector 1991112017004521484243Rt213collector 4038112017006021 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK54KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber494344Rt213collector 1619112017006015504445Rt213collector 4960112017006015514546Rt213collector 4221112017006015524647Rt213collector 2107112017005515534748Route213collector 32621120170060155447804KincaidBridgeRdcollector 5343112117005515554849Route213collector 1827112017006015564950Route213collector 4745112017006015575051Route213collector 4980112017006016585152Route213collector 1177112017006023595253Route213collector 951112017006023605354Route213collector 1410112017006016615455Route213collector 2781112017006016625556Route213collector 2141112017006023635657Route213collector 3789112017504016645758US321minorarterial10062121190055166557450US321minorarterial9352120190045166657452US321BUSminorarterial210212015753516675857US321minorarterial1006212117504516685859Rt34collector 329112017005023695862US321minorarterial556212119005523 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK55KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber705960Rt34collector 2491112117006023716061Rt34collector 9830112117006023726258US321minorarterial556212119005523736263US321minorarterial4679212119006023746362US321minorarterial4679212119005523756364US321minorarterial1072212117506023766463US321minorarterial1072212119006023776465US321minorarterial3948212019005523786472Rt269collector 2959112017005523796564US321minorarterial3948212017506023806566US321collector 3273112017006523816665US321collector 3273112017006523826667US321collector 4084112017006023836766US321collector 4084112017006023846768US321collector 7402112017006023856867US321collector 7402112017005523866869US321collector 4599112017006031876968US321collector 45991120170060318869805US321collector 5404112017006031897071US321collector 7456112017006031 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK56KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber9070805US321collector 4683112017006031917170US321collector 74561120170060319271664US321collector 5614112017006031937264Rt269collector 2959112017504523947273Rt269collector 2247112017005523957372Rt269collector 2247112017005523967374Rt269collector 3530112017005523977473Rt269collector 3530112017005523987475Rt269collector 2097112017005523997574Rt269collector 209711201700552310075652Rt269collector 18131120170055231017677Rt269collector 488611201700552310276652Rt269collector 39331120170055231037776Rt269collector 48861120170055231047786Rt269collector 41731120170055221057879Rt269collector 38251120170055301067886Rt269collector 40731120170055221077978Rt269collector 38251120170055301087980Rt269collector 39381120170060301098079Rt269collector 39381120170055301108081Rt269collector 38091120170060301118180Rt269collector 38091120170060301128182Rt269collector 64291120170060301138281Rt269collector 64291120170060301148283Rt269collector 1024112017006030 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK57KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1158382Rt269collector 10241120170060301168384Rt269collector 54601120170060301178483Rt269collector 546011201700603011884655Rt269collector 12621120170060371198526Rt269collector 307211201700603712085655Rt269collector 28091120170060371218677Rt269collector 41731120170055221228678Rt269collector 40731120170055221238788Rt215collector 49231120170055211248889Rt215collector 42941120170055211258990Rt215collector 15611120170055211269091Rt215collector 35911120170055141279192Rt215collector 24001120170050141289293Rt215collector 29261120170055141299394Rt215collector 24681120170055141309495Rt215collector 89121120170045141319596Rt215collector 20651120170045141329697Rt215collector 22781120170055141339798Rt215collector 2276112017005571349899Rt215collector 28141120170055713599112Rt215collector 9121120170060713699114Rt34collector 9391100170055713799143Rt34collector 49411201700557138100101Rt215collector 136111201700607139101102Rt215collector 289311201700506 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK58KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber140102924Rt215collector 126511201700606141103104Rt215collector 325711201700606142104105Rt215collector 345111201700606143105106Rt215collector 323911201700602144106107Rt215collector 378311201700602145107108Rt215collector 343511201700602146108109Rt215collector 379711201700602147109110Rt215collector 100311201700602148110113Rt215collector 138511201700602149112100Rt215collector 461711201700607150113111Rt215collector 179711201700602151114115Rt34collector 322611001700557152115116Rt34collector 304311201700557153116117Rt34collector 83511201700557154117118Rt34collector 183611201700557155118119Rt34collector 92611201700557156119120Rt34collector 777011201700557157120121Rt34collector 3001112017005514158121122Rt34collector 1900112017005514159122123Rt34collector 1654112017005514160123124Rt34collector 2189112017005514161124125Rt34collector 16791120170055151621252Rt34collector 2360112017005515163126142Rt34collector 311711201700558164127128Rt34collector 161111201700558 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK59KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber165128129Rt34collector 139311201700608166129130Rt34collector 157711201700658167129557SRS2038collector 199111201700458168130131Rt34collector 332211201700608169131132Rt34collector 1987112017006015170132133Rt34collector 1626112017006015171133134Rt34collector 1898112017006015172134135Rt34collector 2168112017005016173135136Rt34collector 4774112017005516174136137Rt34collector 2457112017004016175137138Rt34collector 3247112017504516176138139Route200collector 2749112017004516177138451US321collector 5077112017004516178138463US321collector 4075112017004516179139140Route200collector 1021112017004516180140141Route200collector 4684112017005516181140462US321BUSminorarterial724212019004516182140464US321BUScollector 1882112017006016183142127Rt34collector 362811201700558184143144Rt34collector 143611201700556185144145Rt34collector 81411201700556186145146Rt34collector 95311201700556187146147Rt34collector 350611201700606188147148Rt34collector 239111201700606189148149Rt34collector 453211201700606 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK60KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber190149150Rt34collector 266511201700606191150151Rt34collector 306911201700606192151152Rt34collector 212711201700606193152153Rt34collector 3182112017006013194153154Rt34collector 1133112017006013195154155Rt34collector 3863112017006013196155156Rt34collector 5407112017006012197156157Rt34collector 3118112617006012198157158Rt34collector 4040112017006012199158159Rt34collector 627112017506012200159160Rt34collector 8837112017006012201159402Mt.PleasantRdcollector 3914111017005012202160161Rt34collector 3222112017006012203161545Rt34collector 1961112017006012204162163Rt34collector 5077112017006011205163164Rt34collector 1449112017006011206164165Rt34collector 3936112017006011207165166Rt34collector 3738112017006011208166167Rt34collector 2503112017506011209167312US176collector 2094112017006018210167352Rt34collector 4941112017005518211167396US176collector 32671120170065112121688Rt213collector 2361112217504529213168169Rt213collector 2724112217506528214169168Rt213collector 2723112217006528 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK61KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber215169170Rt213collector 2104112217006528216170171Rt213collector 1897112217006528217171172Rt213collector 7826112217504028218172173Rt213collector 4137112117006028219173174Rt213collector 4802112117006028220174175Rt213collector 1945112017505528221175192US176collector 6665112017005527222175197US176collector 3076112017006028223176172CRS3628collector 1957110017504528224177176CRS3628collector 5808110017005528225178177CRS3628collector 1368110017005528226179180CRS3628collector 1605110017005520227180181CRS3628collector 1300110017005520228181182CRS3628collector 1831110017005520229182183CRS3628collector 4580110017005520230183184CRS3628collector 4414110017005520231184185CRS3628collector 2325110017005520232185186CRS3628collector 7024110017005519233186187CRS3628collector 4319110017005512234187188CRS3628collector 8273110017005512235188159CRS3628collector 7032110017505512236189172CRS3628collector 1706112017504528237190178CRS3628collector 3061110017005528238190179CRS3628collector 2156110017005528239191190PeakRdcollector 1463112017004028 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK62KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber240192175US176collector 6665112017505527241192193US176collector 2941112017005527242193192US176collector 2942112017005527243193194US176collector 2275112017005527244194193US176collector 2277112017005527245194195US176collector 5602112017006027246194279Rt202collector 3706112017006027247195194US176collector 5602112017005527248195196US176collector 2673112117006027249196195US176collector 2673112117006027250196306Rt773collector 506112017005027251196307US176collector 2406112117006027252197175US176collector 3076112017505528253197198US176collector 3023112017006028254198197US176collector 3023112017006028255198199US176collector 3554112017006028256199198US176collector 3554112017006028257199200US176collector 1950112017006028258200199US176collector 1950112017006028259200201US176collector 1192112017506028260201200US176collector 1192112017006028261201202US176collector 8027112017005534262201262HolyTrinityChurchRdcollector 1335112017005534263202201US176collector 8027112017506034264202203US176collector 2176112017005534 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK63KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber265203202US176collector 2178112017005534266203204US176collector 2603112017005534267204203US176collector 2604112017005534268204205US176collector 1875112017005534269205204US176collector 1878112017005534270205206US176collector 4302112017005534271206205US176collector 4299112017005534272206207US176collector 2659112017005534273207206US176collector 2659112017005534274207208US176collector 2750112017005535275208207US176collector 2745112017005535276208209US176collector 3854112017005535277209208US176collector 3854112017005535278209210US176collector 2826112017004535279209268SRS4039collector 1942112117004535280210209US176collector 2826112017004535281210605US176collector 2520112017004535282211212US176collector 3226112017004535283211605US176collector 1706112017004535284212211US176collector 3226112017004535285212213US176collector 4532112017504535286213212US176collector 4532112017004535287213382US176collector 1907112017005535288214215US176collector 1596112017004543289214382US176collector 597112017005535 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK64KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber290214383I26onramptoUS176localroadway427 112813503043291215214US176collector 1596112017504543292215380I26onramptoUS176localroadway507 112813503043293215865US176collector 161112017004543294216217US176collector 2108112017005543295216865US176collector 4520112017004543296217216US176collector 2108112017005543297217612US176collector 1810112017505543298218612US176collector 1543112017505546299218852US76collector 1812112117005043300218936US76collector 738112417005046301219220US76collector 1089112117004543302219852US76collector 1652112117005043303220219US76collector 1089112117004543304220221US76minorarterial1523212117504543305221220US76minorarterial1523212119004543306221222US76minorarterial1075212117504043307221389Rt6collector 1513112017004543308222221US76minorarterial1075212117504543309222821US76minorarterial2188212119004043 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK65KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber310223821US76minorarterial1708212219004043311223854US76minorarterial602212219004543312224225US76collector 3253112217504542313224717US76collector 822112217004542314225224US76collector 3253112217004542315225226US76collector 2692112217505542316226225US76collector 2688112217504542317226227US76collector 4246112217006042318227226US76collector 4247112117505542319227686US76collector 3054112117506041320228229US76collector 3234112117006041321228686US76collector 2477112117506041322229228US76collector 3238112117006041323229230US76collector 3015112017506034324230229US76collector 3015112017006034325230231US76collector 4841112017005534326231230US76collector 4841112017506034327231232US76collector 3056112017004534328232231US76collector 3056112017005534329232855US76collector 861112017004534330233684US76collector 1377112017505534331233855US76collector 351112017004534332234684US76collector 1375112017505534333234857US76collector 950112017005034 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK66KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber334235236US76collector 6981112417006033335235857US76collector 4738112017005034336236235US76collector 6981112417005533337236237US76collector 4406112017005033338237236US76collector 4406112017006033339237238US76collector 1792112117005033340238237US76collector 1794112117005033341238932US76collector 2203112117005033342239284Rt202collector 3450112017004533343239767US76collector 2908112117004533344239932US76collector 330112017005033345240241US76collector 8378112117005533346240767US76collector 1217112117004533347241240US76collector 8378112117005533348241775US76collector 978112117005533349242775US76collector 2803112117005532350242858US76collector 5070112117505532351243244US76collector 2909110017005526352243311Rt773collector 1163112017005026353243858US76collector 2133112117505526354244243US76collector 2909110017505526355244245US76collector 2018112017005026356245244US76collector 2018112017005026357245861US76collector 5181112017004026358246247US76collector 2007112017004032 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK67KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber359246860US76collector 1254112013503032360247246US76collector 2006112017004032361247248US76collector 2544112017004525362248247US76collector 2545112017004025363248249US76collector 3202112017005025364248928Rt391collector 1178116015753525365249248US76collector 3202112019004525366249250US76minorarterial2462212019005025367250249US76minorarterial2462212019005025368250251US76minorarterial2203212019006025369251250US76minorarterial2203212019005025370251252US76minorarterial5286212019006025371252251US76minorarterial5286212019006025372252351US76minorarterial3162212019006025373254255Rt391localroadway426 11206751532374254927Rt391localroadway1353 11206751532375255256Rt391collector 1968112015753532376256257Rt391collector 2325112017004032377257258Rt391collector 2571112017004032 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK68KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber378258259Rt391collector 1362112017005032379259260Rt391collector 1297112017005532380260261Rt391collector 1778112017005532381261718Rt391collector 5224112017005532382262263PeakStcollector 7327110017005534383263264PeakStcollector 3499110017005534384264265PeakStcollector 1765110017005534385265266PeakStcollector 1606110017004034386266267PeakStcollector 1526110015753534387267278ColumbiaAvecollector 2688112117004534388267855PeakStcollector 739112017004034389267931ColumbiaAvelocalroadway1752 11214501034390268209SRS4039collector 1941112117004535391268269SRS4039collector 2316112117004534392269268SRS4039collector 2316112117004534393269270SRS4039collector 893112117005034394270269SRS4039collector 894112117005034395270930SRS4039collector 2642112117005534396271272ColumbiaAvecollector 1344112117504034397271930ColumbiaAvecollector 2576112117004034398272271ColumbiaAvecollector 1344112117004034399272273ColumbiaAve/Route48collector 690112117504034 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK69KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber400272275I26onrampfromColumbiaAvefreewayramp1061112417004534401273272ColumbiaAve/Route48collector 690112117504034402273274I26onrampfromColumbiaAvefreewayramp889112417004534403273276ColumbiaAvecollector 1328112117005534404274272I26offramptoColumbiaAvecollector 734112417504534405274275I26freeway16192121222507534 406274376I26freeway61012121222507534 407275273I26offramptoColumbiaAvecollector 822112417504534408275274I26freeway16202121222507534 409275375I26freeway38352121222507534 410276273ColumbiaAvecollector 1328112117504034411276277ColumbiaAvecollector 2582112117004534412277276ColumbiaAvecollector 2582112117005534413277278ColumbiaAvecollector 2153112117004534414278267ColumbiaAvecollector 2688112117004534415278277ColumbiaAvecollector 2153112117004534416279280Rt202collector 2570112017006027417280281Rt202collector 5731112017006027 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK70KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber418281282Rt202collector 1692112017004027419282301I26onrampfromRt202freewayramp1055112617004527420282877Rt202collector 236112017004027421283284Rt202collector 2747112017004533422283876Rt202collector 2418112017004027423284239Rt202collector 3449112017004033424284283Rt202collector 2753112017004033425285310Rt773collector 1434112017005527426286287Rt773collector 2036112017004527427287288Rt773collector 2754112017005527428288289Rt773collector 1990112017005527429289290Rt773collector 2092112017004527430289338SRS3638collector 1044112017005027431290302Rt773collector 1686112017004026432291292Rt773collector 2928112017006026433291303Rt773collector 1057112017004026434292291Rt773collector 2928112017006026435292311Rt773collector 5474112017005026436293294SRS3638collector 2190112017005026437294295SRS3638collector 1969112017005026438295296SRS3638collector 2820112017005026439296339SRS3638collector 2312112017005026440297340SRS3638collector 1742112017005026441298299I26onrampfromRt202freewayramp558112613503027 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK71KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber442298876Rt202collector 275112017004027443298877Rt202collector 740112017004027444299300I26onrampfromRt202freewayramp477112613503027445300301I26freeway6772121222507527 446300372I26freeway22322121222507027 447300875I26offramptoRt202freewayramp413112613503027448301300I26freeway6772121222507527 449301371I26freeway37622121222507527 450301876I26offramptoRt202freewayramp1327112617004527451302303Rt773collector 704112217004026452302304I26onrampfromRt773freewayramp1218112417004526453303291Rt773collector 1058112017006026454303302Rt773collector 704112217004026455303305I26onrampfromRt773freewayramp935112417004526456304303I26offramptoRt773freewayramp888112417004526457304305I26freeway17162121222507526 458304369I26freeway29102121222507526 459305302I26offramptoRt773freewayramp615112417004526460305304I26freeway17162121222507526 461305370I26freeway30482121222507526 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK72KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber462306285Rt773collector 1688112017005027463307196US176collector 2406112117006027464307308US176collector 2890112017006019465308307US176collector 2890112017006019466308309US176collector 4551112017006019467309308US176collector 4551112017006019468309313US176collector 4225112017006018469309317Rt219collector 939112017005019470310286Rt773collector 3167112017005027471311243Rt773collector 1163112017505026472311292Rt773collector 5474112017006026473312167US176collector 2094112017506518474312316US176collector 3652112017006018475313309US176collector 4226112017006018476313314US176collector 9863112017006018477314313US176collector 9863112017006018478314315US176collector 3275112017006018479315314US176collector 3275112017006018480315316US176collector 5134112017006018481316312US176collector 3652112017006018482316315US176collector 5134112017006018483317332Rt219collector 2238112017005018484318333Rt219collector 1364112017006018485319320Rt219collector 7276112017006018486320334Rt219collector 1319112017006018 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK73KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber487321335Rt219collector 1874112017006018488322323Rt219minorarterial688212019004017489322324I26onrampfromRt219freewayramp668112417004517490323325I26onrampfromRt219freewayramp680112417004517491323326Rt219minorarterial1320212019005517492324323I26offramptoRt219freewayramp589112417004517493324325I26freeway10192121222507517 494324364I26freeway50392121222507517 495325322I26offramptoRt219freewayramp514112417004517496325324I26freeway10192121222507517 497325365I26freeway21702121222507517 498326327Rt219minorarterial3340212019005517499327328Rt219minorarterial2143212019005517500328329Rt219minorarterial1867212019005517501329330Rt219minorarterial1314212019004017502330331Rt219minorarterial1251212017504017 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK74KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber503331843Rt219minorarterial4003212017504517504332318Rt219collector 5667112017005518505333319Rt219collector 1551112017006018506334321Rt219collector 1682112017006018507335336Rt219collector 1332112017006018508336337Rt219collector 2588112017005018509337322Rt219minorarterial2945212019004017510338293SRS3638collector 3210112017005026511339297SRS3638collector 5128112017005026512340341SRS3638collector 2376112017005026513341342SRS3638collector 2561112017005026514342343SRS3638collector 1714112017005026515343344SRS3638collector 1398112017005025516344345SRS3638collector 3696112017005025517345346SRS3638collector 2692112017005025518346347SRS3638collector 3405112017005025519347348SRS3638collector 2332112017005025520348349SRS3638collector 2285112017005025521349350SRS3638collector 1067112017005025522350351US76minorarterial5277212019006025523350879US76minorarterial2732212019004525524351252US76minorarterial3162212019006025 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK75KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber525351350US76minorarterial5277212019006025526352353Rt34collector 2685112017005518527353354Rt34collector 4497112017005517528354355Rt34collector 3349112017005517529355356Rt34collector 1438112017005517530356357Rt34collector 3142112017005517531357358Rt34collector 2642112017005517532358359Rt34collector 646112017005517533358361I26onrampfromRt34freewayramp741112417004517534359360I26onrampfromRt34freewayramp665112417004517535359362Rt34collector 3389112017005517536360358I26offramptoRt34freewayramp548112417004517537360361I26freeway11122121222507017 538360364I26freeway47832121222507517 539361359I26offramptoRt34freewayramp607112417004517540361360I26freeway11122121222507517 541361363I26freeway14142121222507517 542362921Rt34collector 7316112017504517543363361I26freeway14142121222507517 544364324I26freeway50392121222507517 545364360I26freeway47832121222507517 546365325I26freeway21702121222507517 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK76KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber547365366I26freeway61902121222507517 548366365I26freeway61902121222507517 549366367I26freeway22382121222507526 550367366I26freeway22382121222507526 551367368I26freeway79812121222507526 552368367I26freeway79812121222507526 553368369I26freeway97832121222507526 554369304I26freeway29102121222507526 555369368I26freeway97832121222507526 556370305I26freeway30482121222507526 557370371I26freeway81052121222507527 558371301I26freeway37622121222507527 559371370I26freeway81052121222507527 560372300I26freeway22322121222507527 561372373I26freeway99582121222507527 562373372I26freeway99582121222507527 563373374I26freeway87962121222507534 564374373I26freeway87962121222507534 565374375I26freeway54812121222507534 566375275I26freeway38352121222507534 567375374I26freeway54812121222507534 568376274I26freeway61012121222507534 569376377I26freeway94762121222507534 570377376I26freeway94762121222507534 571377378I26freeway85502121222507535 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK77KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber572378377I26freeway85502121222507535 573378864I26freeway26362121222507535 574379385I26freeway6312121222507543 575379864I26freeway3032121222507543 576380381I26onramptoUS176freewayramp511112813503043577381379I26onramptoUS176freewayramp420112813503043578382213US176collector 1907112017504535579382214US176collector 597112017504535580383384I26onramptoUS176freewayramp654112813503043581384385I26onramptoUS176freewayramp419112813503043582385379I26freeway6312121222507543 583385866I26freeway3582121222507543 584386387I26freeway95572121222507546 585386866I26freeway89882121222507543 586387386I26freeway95572121222507546 587387388I26freeway61122121222507548 588388387I26freeway61122121222507548 589388871I26freeway3893121222507549 590388935I26offramptoUS76freewayramp645112417004549591389390Rt6collector 4546112017004543592390391Rt6collector 5821112017004545593392393US76collector 1284112117504548 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK78KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber594392630US76collector 4617112117505046595393392US76collector 1284112117005548596393394US76collector 3952112117005548597393395NWoodrowStcollector 3666112017004548598394393US76collector 3952112117504548599394935US76minorarterial1229212119005548600396167US176collector 3267112017506511601396397US176collector 7534112017006511602397396US176collector 7545112017006511603397398US176collector 8575112017006010604398397US176collector 8575112017006510605398399US176collector 7638112017005510606399398US176collector 7638112017006010607399400US176collector 3510112017006010608400399US176collector 3510112017005510609400401US121collector 344611201700604610401400US121collector 344611201700604611402159Mt.PleasantRdcollector 3915111017505012612402403Mt.PleasantRdcollector 2459111017005012613403402Mt.PleasantRdcollector 2459111017005012614403404Mt.PleasantRdcollector 2566111017005512 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK79KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber615404403Mt.PleasantRdcollector 2565111017005012616404405SRS3655collector 4201111017005012617405406SRS3655collector 2963111017005512618406407SRS3655collector 3325111017005511619407408SRS3645collector 5180112017005511620408409SRS3645collector 173311201700505621409410SRS3645collector 165311201700505622410411SRS3645collector 160111201700505623411412SRS3645collector 429311201700505624412413SRS3645collector 161311201700505625413414SRS3645collector 216711201700505626414415SRS3645collector 258611201700455627415416SRS3645collector 240011201700455628416417SRS3645collector 144111201700455629416421TygerRiverRdcollector 119811201700455630417418SRS3645collector 162911201700455631418419SRS3645collector 249811201700455632419420SRS3645collector 97211201700455633420425SRS3645collector 114911201700455634420427Rt66collector 195911201700455635421422TygerRiverRdcollector 254111201700455636422423TygerRiverRdcollector 594811201700451637424404OldBlairRdcollector 1394111017004012638425426SRS3645collector 203611201700455639427428Rt66collector 76011201700455 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK80KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber640428429Rt66collector 589611201700505641429430Rt66collector 219311201700505642430431Rt66collector 398911201700505643431432Rt66collector 109511201700505644432433Rt66collector 188911201700505645433434Rt66collector 114211201700505646434435Rt66collector 183211201700505647435436Rt66collector 182211201700505648436437Rt66collector 2143112017005011649437438Rt66collector 121211201700504650438439Rt66collector 156311201700504651439440Rt66collector 621311201700554652440399Rt66collector 3326112017004510653441165SRS3655collector 3058112015004011654442203RStoudemayerRdcollector 977112017004034655443442RStoudemayerRdcollector 1832112017005528656444443RStoudemayerRdcollector 3585112017004028657445444RStoudemayerRdcollector 2719112017004028658446447US321minorarterial818212019004516659446451US321minorarterial2643212019004516 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK81KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber660446828WMoultrieStminorarterial2092212019004016661447446US321majorarterial818312017504516662447449US321minorarterial1999212019004516663448449US321minorarterial1753212019004516664448450US321minorarterial4445212019004516665449447US321minorarterial1999212019004516666449448US321minorarterial175621201750451666745057US321minorarterial935212017504516668450448US321minorarterial4445212017504516669451138US321collector 5077112017504516670451446US321minorarterial264321201750451667145257US321BUSminorarterial210212017503516672452453US321BUScollector 2493112015753516673453452US321BUScollector 2493212015753516674453454US321BUScollector 1710112015753516675454453US321BUScollector 1710112015753516676454455US321BUScollector 3196112015753516 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK82KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber677455454US321BUScollector 3196112015753516678455456US321BUScollector 1554112017004016679456455US321BUScollector 1554112017004016680456457US321BUSminorarterial2122212017502516681457456US321BUSminorarterial2122212019004016682457458US321BUSminorarterial715212017502516683458457US321BUSminorarterial715212017502516684458459US321BUSminorarterial683212017502516685459458US321BUSminorarterial683212017502516686459460US321BUSminorarterial973212017502516687460459US321BUSminorarterial973212017502516688460461US321BUSminorarterial1400212019004016689461460US321BUSminorarterial1400212017502516690461462US321BUSminorarterial1515212019004516691462140US321BUSminorarterial724212019006016 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK83KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber692462461US321BUSminorarterial1515212019004016693463138US321collector 4075112017504516694463464US321BUScollector 3464112017006016695463465US321collector 1349112017006016696464140US321BUScollector 1882112017006016697464463US321BUScollector 3464112017004516698465463US321minorarterial1348212019004516699465466US321collector 468711201700609700466465US321collector 468811201700609701466467US321collector 495011201700609702467466US321collector 495011201700609703467468US321collector 171511201700609704468467US321collector 171511201700609705468469US321collector 205611201700609706469468US321collector 205611201700609707469470US321collector 352411201700609708470469US321collector 352411201700609709471169SLakeAccessRdminorarterial397221201750402871047217GlennsBridgeRdcollector 909112017504529711473472GlennsBridgeRdcollector 1202112017004529712474473GlennsBridgeRdcollector 1223112017004529 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK84KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber713475474GlennsBridgeRdcollector 6123112017004529714476475GlennsBridgeRdcollector 2188112017004529715476477GlennsBridgeRdcollector 3046112017004530716476497EstesLncollector 6302112017004530717477478GlennsBridgeRdcollector 4243112017004530718478479GlennsBridgeRdcollector 5266112017004522719479480SRS2048collector 594112017004522720479496SRS2048collector 5889112017004522721480481SRS2048collector 7489112017004522722481482SRS2048collector 3669112017004521723482483ReservoirRdcollector 3767112017004521724483484ReservoirRdcollector 1467112017004522725484485ReservoirRdcollector 3994112017004522726485486ReservoirRdcollector 1592112017004522727486487ReservoirRdcollector 1156112017004522728487488ReservoirRdcollector 2377112017004522729488489ReservoirRdcollector 4116112017004522730488492SRS2054collector 2471112017004522731489490ReservoirRdcollector 4647112017004522732490491ReservoirRdcollector 3466112017005522733491495ReservoirRdcollector 5783112017005522734492493SRS2054collector 6609112017006022 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK85KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber735493494SRS2054collector 278211201700601573649446SRS2054collector 189711201700601573749552ReservoirRdcollector 2684112017005023738496665SRS20221collector 1575112017004530739497669EstesLncollector 3526112017004530740498499SRS20347collector 2343112017004013741498520PearsonRdcollector 1127112017005013742499519SRS20347collector 871112017004013743500501MeadowlakeRdcollector 976112017004013744500505SRS20347collector 2401112017005513745501502MeadowlakeRdcollector 1180112017004013746502503MeadowlakeRdcollector 1894112017004013747503504MeadowlakeRdcollector 524611201700401374850493MeadowlakeRdcollector 889112017004014749505506SRS20347collector 1839112017005513750506507SRS20347collector 1990112017005513751507508SRS20347collector 495611201700551375250896SRS20347collector 761112017005514753509498PearsonRdcollector 1357112017004013754510509PearsonRdcollector 1773112017004013755511516SRS20257collector 844112017004013756512511SRS20257collector 2240112017004013 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK86KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber757513512SRS20257collector 1176112017004013758514513SRS20257collector 2000112017004020759515514UnnamedRoadcollector 2541112017004020760516517SRS20257collector 1103112017004013761517518SRS20257collector 1725112017004013762518510SRS20257collector 2086112017004013763519500SRS20347collector 1022112017004013764520521PearsonRdcollector 1284112017005013765521522PearsonRdcollector 1427112017005513766522523PearsonRdcollector 899112017005013767523524PearsonRdcollector 3696112017005013768524525PearsonRdcollector 1526112017005013769525526PearsonRdcollector 1387112017005013770526527PearsonRdcollector 1947112017005013771527528PearsonRdcollector 243511201700506772528151PearsonRdcollector 65411201700506773529527StrotherRdcollector 534112017005513774530529StrotherRdcollector 822112017005513775531530StrotherRdcollector 1900112017005513776532534SRS359734collector 2373112017005019777532539SRS36272collector 4512112017005019778533532SRS359734collector 2207112017005019779534535SRS359734collector 2730112017005019780535536NewHopeRdcollector 1811112017005019781536537SRS359734collector 3565112017005019 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK87KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber782537308SRS359734collector 1782112017005019783538536HugheyFerryRdcollector 6117112017005019784539540SRS36272collector 5193112017005019785540541SRS36272collector 1966112017005019786541542SRS36272collector 1665112017005019787542543SRS36272collector 1671112017005012788543544SRS36272collector 4143112017005012789544545SRS36272collector 4109112017005012790545162Rt34collector 2892112017006011791546547KincaidBridgeRdcollector 7649112117006015792547548KincaidBridgeRdcollector 1616112117005016793548549KincaidBridgeRdcollector 3003112117004016794549446KincaidBridgeRdcollector 229011211750451679555053PumphouseRdcollector 1781112017004516796550551PumphouseRdcollector 725112017004516797551552PumphouseRdcollector 2554112017004516798552553PumphouseRdcollector 1606112017004516799553554PumphouseRdcollector 1381112017004516800554447PumphouseRdcollector 2750112017004516801555469SRS2038collector 264911201700459802556555SRS2038collector 230011201700458803557558SRS2038collector 192211201700458 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK88KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber804558559SRS2038collector 200411201700458805559560SRS2038collector 235211201700458806560561SRS2038collector 178411201700458807561556SRS2038collector 137611201700458808562563OldDouglassRdcollector 324011201700607809562584SRS20402collector 82611201700607810563564OldDouglassRdcollector 157411201700607811564565OldDouglassRdcollector 131811201700607812565566OldDouglassRdcollector 144911201700607813566567OldDouglassRdcollector 126611201700607814567568OldDouglassRdcollector 199811201700607815568569OldDouglassRdcollector 197711201700607816569570OldDouglassRdcollector 298911201700608817570571OldDouglassRdcollector 249911201700608818571572OldDouglassRdcollector 111311201700608819572573OldDouglassRdcollector 337811201700608 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK89KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber820573574OldDouglassRdcollector 428611201700608821574128OldDouglassRdcollector 205311201700608822575562OldDouglassRdcollector 462411201700607823576575OldDouglassRdcollector 595811201700603824577576OldDouglassRdcollector 98211201700603825578577OldDouglassRdcollector 102311201700603826579578OldDouglassRdcollector 84711201700603827580579OldDouglassRdcollector 104811201700603828581580OldDouglassRdcollector 174311201700603829582581OldDouglassRdcollector 110411201700603830583582OldDouglassRdcollector 256711201700603831584585SRS20402collector 91011201700607832585586SRS20402collector 267711201700607833586587SRS20402collector 198811201700607834587588SRS20402collector 80711201700607835588589SRS20402collector 129511201700607836589590SRS20402collector 154811201700607 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK90KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber837590591SRS20402collector 91111201700607838591592SRS20402collector 196411201700607839592593SRS20402collector 113611201700607840593594SRS20402collector 281211201700606841594102AshfordFerryRdcollector 77511201700406842595594AshfordFerryRdcollector 483111201700606843596595AshfordFerryRdcollector 327711201700607844597596AshfordFerryRdcollector 468411201700603845598597AshfordFerryRdcollector 732211201700603846599204SRS40698collector 1683112017004034847600599SRS40698collector 1113112017004034848601600SRS40698collector 2549112017004034849602601BurdellFullerRdcollector 3387112017004029850603207SRS40592collector 2656112017004035851604603SRS40592collector 2151112017004035852605210US176collector 2520112017004535853605211US176collector 1706112017004535854606605SRS40234collector 3134112017004035855607606SRS40234collector 2644112017004035856608607SRS40234collector 2753112017004035857609608SRS40234collector 2574112017004035 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK91KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber858610609SRS40234collector 3445112017004035859610611SRS40234collector 2391112017004035860611620Rt80collector 1953112017004035861612217US176collector 1810112017005543862612218US176collector 1543112017505046863613612Rt80collector 1168112017504046864614613Rt80collector 1843112017004046865615614Rt80collector 4635112017004046866616615Rt80collector 1319112017504036867617616Rt80collector 2804112017004036868618617Rt80collector 4419112017004036869619618Rt80collector 2945112017004036870619637KennerlyRdcollector 1419112017004036871620621Rt80collector 3417112017004035872621622Rt80collector 3639112017004035873622623Rt80collector 1663112017004035874623624Rt80collector 1026112017004036875624625Rt80collector 1288112017004036876625626SRS40612collector 3712112017004035877625628Rt80collector 1570112017004036878626627SRS40612collector 2904112017004035879627213SRS40612collector 2534112017504035880628629Rt80collector 1446112017004036881629615Rt80collector 934112017504036882630392US76collector 4617112117005546 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK92KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber883630936US76collector 2607112417005046884631630KoonRdcollector 3621112017504046885632631CooglerRdcollector 3569112017004046886633632CooglerRdcollector 2296112017004047887634633KennerlyRdcollector 3654112017004047888635634KennerlyRdcollector 2148112017004047889636635KennerlyRdcollector 839112017004047890637619KennerlyRdcollector 1418112017504036891637636KennerlyRdcollector 3451112017004036892638633KennerlyRdcollector 173211201700404789363968WPeachRdcollector 1566112017004531894640639WPeachRdcollector 2611112017004523895641640WPeachRdcollector 1865112017004523896642641WPeachRdcollector 4074112017004523897642653GreenbrierMossydaleRdcollector 1458112017004523898643642GreenbrierMossydaleRdcollector 1539112017004523899644643Greenbrier MossydaleRdcollector 4046112017004523900645644Greenbrier MossydaleRdcollector 4176112017004531901646645Greenbrier MossydaleRdcollector 4800112017004531902646649Greenbrier MossydaleRdcollector 1150112017004531 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK93KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber90364779GreenbrierMossydaleRdcollector 2151112017004530904648647Greenbrier MossydaleRdcollector 1563112017004530905649648GreenbrierMossydaleRdcollector 4141112017004531906650646PerryLncollector 3312112017004531907651650PerryLncollector 478011201700453190865275Rt269collector 181311201700552390965276Rt269collector 3933112017005523910653652GreenbrierMossydaleRdcollector 5230112017004523911654652SRS2062collector 468711201700452391265584Rt269collector 126211201700603791365585Rt269collector 2809112017006037914656655SRS4059collector 2873112017004537915657656SRS4059collector 1365112017004037916658657SRS4059collector 2874112017004037917659658SRS4059collector 1869112017004537918659660SRS40406collector 3889112017004537919660661SRS40406collector 2490112017004531920661662SRS40406collector 2705112017004531921662663SRS40406collector 186511201700453192266371SRS40406collector 255911201700453192366471US321collector 5614112017006031924665666SRS20221collector 1368112017004530 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK94KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber925666667SRS20221collector 2875112017004530926667668SRS20221collector 218211201700453092766878SRS2054collector 4416112015004530928669670EstesLncollector 6857112017004530929670671EstesLncollector 333111201700453093067180SRS270collector 1861112017004530931672673AmicksFerryRdcollector 2567112015753541932673674AmicksFerryRdcollector 3232112015753541933674675AmicksFerryRdcollector 1129112015753541934675676AmicksFerryRdcollector 1689112017004541935676685AmicksFerryRdcollector 3294112117004540936677678AmicksFerryRdcollector 4292112117004540937678679AmicksFerryRdcollector 3875112117005540938679680AmicksFerryRdcollector 6362112117005034939679754LesterFrickRdcollector 2669112017005540940680681AmicksFerryRdcollector 1597112017005034941681682AmicksFerryRdcollector 1811112015753534 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK95KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber942682683AmicksFerryRdcollector 2014112015753534943683684AmicksFerryRdcollector 1097112017503534944684233US76collector 1377112017504534945684234US76collector 1375112017004034946684931ColumbiaAvelocalroadway280 11214501034947685677AmicksFerryRdcollector 1196112117004540948686227US76collector 3054112117006041949686228US76collector 2477112117006041950687686WessingerRdcollector 1204112017504041951688687WessingerRdcollector 2705112017004041952689688WessingerRdcollector 1055112017004041953690689WessingerRdcollector 3168112017004041954691690WessingerRdcollector 1766112017004041955691706OldLexingtonHwycollector 1728112017004541956692691OldLexingtonHwycollector 5334112017004541957693692OldLexingtonHwycollector 3586112017005041958694691WessingerRdcollector 3727112017004041959695694WessingerRdcollector 2497112017004041960696695WessingerRdcollector 3057112017004041961697696WessingerRdcollector 2320112017004041 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK96KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber962698233LexingtonAvecollector 2045112017503534963699698OldLexingtonHwycollector 1973112017004034964700231MurrayLindlerRdcollector 3131112017004034965700699OldLexingtonHwycollector 1824112017004034966700701OldLexingtonHwycollector 1456112017004534967701700OldLexingtonHwycollector 1456112017004534968701702OldLexingtonHwycollector 3846112017004541969702230PrimroseLncollector 4732112017504034970702701OldLexingtonHwycollector 3846112017004541971702703OldLexingtonHwycollector 2669112017004541972703702OldLexingtonHwycollector 2669112017004541973703704OldLexingtonHwycollector 1637112017004541974704703OldLexingtonHwycollector 1637112017004541975704705OldLexingtonHwycollector 2422112017004541976705704OldLexingtonHwycollector 2421112017004541 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK97KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber977705706OldLexingtonHwycollector 2887112017004541978706691OldLexingtonHwycollector 1728112017004541979706705OldLexingtonHwycollector 2888112017004541980707700MurrayLindlerRdcollector 2555112017004034981708707MurrayLindlerRdcollector 2359112017004041982709222MarinaRdcollector 4303112017504043983710225SRS401333collector 3196112017504042984710717JohnsonMarinaRdcollector 2543112017004042985711710SRS401333collector 2525112017004042986712711SRS401333collector 2297112017004042987713710JohnsonMarinaRdcollector 3096112017004042988713817ForrestShealyRdcollector 1342112017004042989714713JohnsonMarinaRdcollector 619112017004042990715714JohnsonMarinaRdcollector 3146112017004042991716715JohnsonMarinaRdcollector 3262112017004042992717224US76collector 822112217004542993717854US76collector 5542112217004543 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK98KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber994718719Rt391collector 3418112017005532995719720Rt391collector 2543112017005532996721722MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 5062112217005040997722723MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 3505112217006039998723724MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 3506112217006039999724728MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 16331122170060391000724788SRS3620collector 24691120170050391001725722SRS32231collector 29941100170045401002725726SRS32231collector 68311100170050401003726725SRS32231collector 68311100170050401004726929SRS32231collector 18601121170050401005727750SRS32231collector 20221121170050401006728729SeibertRdcollector 17981120170050391007728736MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 17471122170060391008729730SeibertRdcollector 18131120170050391009730731SeibertRdcollector 30011120170050391010731732SeibertRdcollector 30831120170050391011732733SeibertRdcollector 49931120170050391012733734SRS3671collector 21771120170050391013734735SRS3671collector 33391120170050391014735719SRS3671collector 2635112017005032 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK99KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1015736737MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 37721122170060321016737738MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 23441122170060321017738739MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 51761122170060321018739740MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 13521122170055321019740741MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 56111122170040321020741742MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 24361122170040321021741744SRS3641collector 48141120170045321022742743MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 53251122170040321023743254SMainStlocalroadway5783 1122175015321024744745SRS3641collector 13191120170045321025745746SRS3641collector 25031120170045321026746260SRS3641collector 14011120170040321027747725StateParkRdcollector 60421120170040401028748747StateParkRdcollector 44571120170040401029749758SRS3672collector 27691120170050331030749763SRS3620collector 36891120170050331031750751SRS32231collector 15061121170045401032751752StPetersChurchRdcollector 23491120170055401033751755SRS3672collector 3015112017005040 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK100KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1034752751StPetersChurchRdcollector 23481120170055401035752753StPetersChurchRdcollector 24091120170055401036753752StPetersChurchRdcollector 24091120170055401037753754LesterFrickRdcollector 27761120170055401038754679LesterFrickRdcollector 26691120170055401039754753LesterFrickRdcollector 27761120170055401040755756SRS3672collector 18971120170050331041755776WestwoodsDrcollector 17591120170050331042756757SRS3672collector 25991120170050331043757749SRS3672collector 17961120170050331044758759SRS3672collector 18311120170050331045759760SRS3672collector 37261120170050321046760739SRS3672collector 80721120170050321047760768SRS36211collector 52381120170050321048761726RBBakerDrcollector 20111120170040401049762761RBBakerDrcollector 46551120170040401050763764SRS3620collector 19981120170050331051764765SRS3620collector 16281120170050331052765766SRS3620collector 31271120170050331053766767SRS3620collector 51611120170050331054767239US76collector 29081121170040331055767240US76collector 12171121170055331056768769SRS36211collector 1481112017005033 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK101KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1057769770SRS36211collector 9281120170050331058770771SRS36211collector 13761120170050331059771772SRS36211collector 35911120170050321060772773SRS36211collector 18691120170050321061773774SRS36211collector 5691120170050321062774775SRS36211collector 28681120170050321063775241US76collector 9781121170055331064775242US76collector 28031121170055321065776777WestwoodsDrcollector 9291120170050331066777778WestwoodsDrcollector 57171120170050331067777933MillersBranchRdcollector 16561120170045331068778779WestwoodsDrcollector 10601120170050331069779780WestwoodsDrcollector 52061120170050331070780781WestwoodsDrcollector 41841120175050341071781234StPetersChurchRdcollector 13541120170050341072782783SRS32231collector 46401120170045331073783784SRS32231collector 33271120170045331074784785SRS32231collector 9071120157535331075785786SRS32231collector 5541120157535331076786787MountainStcollector 37401120157535331077787932MountainStcollector 12901120157535331078788789SRS3620collector 17961120170050401079789792SRS3620collector 10211120170050401080790791SRS3620collector 2989112017005040 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK102KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1081791749SRS3620collector 53261120170050331082792790SRS3620collector 24061120170050401083793794PettusLncollector 22111120170045171084794795LanewoodRdcollector 50151120170045171085794796PettusLncollector 13091120170045171086795354LanewoodRdcollector 29031120170045171087796797MtBethelGarmanyRdcollector 34881120170045101088797397MtBethelGarmanyRdcollector 8409112017004510108979893ClarkBridgeRdcollector 23191120170040141090799798ClarkBridgeRdcollector 42771120170040141091800798BrooksDrcollector 23551120170040141092801800BrooksDrcollector 34491120170040141093802801BrooksDrcollector 24831120170040141094803482SRS2048collector 46621120170050211095804546KincaidBridgeRdcollector 5316112117005515109680569US321collector 5404112017006031109780570US321collector 46831120170060311098806807US76minorarterial9322120190045251099806879US76minorarterial7682120190045251100807806US76minorarterial932212017504525 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK103KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1101807808US76minorarterial29162120175045171102808807US76minorarterial29162120190045171103808809US76minorarterial9542120175045171104809808US76minorarterial9542120175045171105809810US76minorarterial9862120175040171106809811Rt219minorarterial15642120190040171107810809US76minorarterial9862120175045171108810811Rt34collector 15401124170040171109810813US76minorarterial51072120175040171110811812Rt34minorarterial20542120190040171111812814Rt34minorarterial21072120190040171112813810US76minorarterial51072120175040171113813848US76minorarterial16312120175045171114815686SRS40405collector 23041120175040411115816815SRS40405collector 57651120170040341116817818SRS401403collector 1708112017004042 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK104KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1117818226SRS401403collector 21881120175040421118819226SRS401403collector 20871120175040421119820819SRS401403collector 12391120170040351120821222US76minorarterial21882122175040431121821223US76minorarterial17082122190045431122822823I26onrampfromUS76freewayramp15211124170045491123822868US76minorarterial2612121190055491124822935US76minorarterial2482121190055491125823824I26freeway13213121222507049 1126823869I26freeway5983121222507549 1127824823I26freeway13213121222507049 1128825388I26onrampfromUS76freewayramp14041124170045491129825870US76minorarterial4532121190055491130825919US76minorarterial9192121175055491131826827US76collector 17161121170045491132826919US76collector 8181121175055491133827826US76collector 17141121170045491134828457WMoultrieStminorarterial3036212017504016 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK105KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1135828829WWashingtonStlocalroadway1071 1124112525161136829458WLibertyStlocalroadway2355 1124175025161137829830WWashingtonStlocalroadway1509 1124112525161138830459WWashingtonStlocalroadway1007 1124175025161139830831NGardenStlocalroadway978 1124112525161140831460WCollegeStlocalroadway980 1124175025161141832833SLakeAccessRdminorarterial15972120190040201142833834SLakeAccessRdminorarterial9752120190040201143834835SLakeAccessRdminorarterial10252120190040201144835836SLakeAccessRdminorarterial7502120190040281145836837SLakeAccessRdminorarterial6212120190040281146837838SLakeAccessRdminorarterial20712120190040281147838839SLakeAccessRdminorarterial19132120190040281148839840SLakeAccessRdminorarterial1201212019004028 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK106KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1149840841SLakeAccessRdminorarterial19292120190040281150841471SLakeAccessRdminorarterial15492120190040281151842331BulldogDrlocalroadway448 1120175015171152843809Rt219minorarterial8182120175045171153844843HeritageDrlocalroadway483 1120175020171154845843HeritageDrlocalroadway377 1120175020171155846813KinardStcollector 6331120175040171156847813KinardStcollector 6021120175040171157848813US76minorarterial16312120175040171158849848EvansStcollector 5091120175040171159850214SchoolEntrancelocalroadway339 1120175015431160852218US76collector 18111121175050431161852219US76collector 16511121170045431162854223US76minorarterial6022122190045431163854717US76collector 55421122170045431164855232US76collector 8601120170045341165855233US76collector 3501120175045341166855267PeakStcollector 7391120170040341167857234US76collector 950112017004034 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK107KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1168857235US76collector 47381120170055341169858242US76collector 50701121170055321170858243US76collector 21311121175055261171859858SchoolEntrancelocalroadway455 1120175015321172860246US76collector 12541120170040321173860861US76collector 31961120157535261174861245US76collector 51811120170050261175861860US76collector 31961120157535261176864378I26freeway26362121222507535 1177864379I26freeway3022121222507543 1178864874I26offramptoUS176freewayramp10691128170045431179865215US176collector 1611120170045431180865216US176collector 45201120170055431181866385I26freeway3582121222507543 1182866386I26freeway89872121222507543 1183866873I26offramptoUS176freewayramp9811128170045431184867868I26offramptoUS76freewayramp5191124135030491185868822US76minorarterial2612121175055491186868870US76minorarterial6282121190055491187869823I26freeway5983121222507049 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK108KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1188869867I26offramptoUS76freewayramp6241124135030491189869871I26freeway6443121222507549 1190870825US76minorarterial4482121190055491191870868US76minorarterial6272121190055491192871388I26freeway3892121222507549 1193871869I26freeway6433121222507549 1194871872I26offramptoUS76freewayramp4771124135030491195872870I26offramptoUS76freewayramp4071124135030491196873382I26offramptoUS176freewayramp12141128170045351197874865I26offramptoUS176freewayramp8971128170045431198875877I26offramptoRt202freewayramp5621126135030271199876283Rt202collector 24181120170040271200876298Rt202collector 2751120170040271201877282Rt202collector 2351120170040271202877298Rt202collector 7401120170040271203879350US76minorarterial27322120190050251204879806US76minorarterial768212017504525 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK109KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1205880806WaterCousinsRdminorarterial4892120175030251206881808JohnstoneStcollector 6361120175040171207882808JohnstoneStlocalroadway572 1120175030171208883191PeakRdcollector 26001120170040281209884533SRS359734collector 17871120170050191210885538HugheyFerryRdcollector 16231120170050191211886515UnnamedRoadcollector 25701120170040201212887424OldBlairRdcollector 21661110170040121213888441SRS3655collector 23081120170040111214889793PettusLncollector 14101120170045101215890531StrotherRdcollector 14441120170055131216891799ClarkBridgeRdcollector 17651120170040141217892802BrooksDrcollector 16551120170040211218893598AshfordFerryRdcollector 2034112017006031219894583OldDouglassRdcollector 158211201700603122089513SLakeAccessRdcollector 9591120190040201221896654SRS2062collector 16041120170040231222897550SandyLnExdcollector 12091120170040161223899479ScottsCrossingRdcollector 13971120170040221224900651PerryLncollector 1008112017004031 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK110KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1225901659ShantarRdcollector 10971124170040311226902716JohnsonMarinaRdcollector 10801120170040441227903712SRS401333collector 12741120170040421228904709MarinaRdcollector 15401120170040431229905638KennerlyRdcollector 17881120170040471230906604SRS40592collector 10031124170040351231907610FulmerBottomRdcollector 17041120170040351232908820SRS401403collector 18121120170040351233909816SRS40405collector 13691120170040351234910708MurrayLindlerRdcollector 20311120170040411235911672AmicksFerryRdcollector 19771120170035411236912697WessingerRdcollector 22861120170040411237913693OldLexingtonHwycollector 19771120170050411238914721MacedoniaChurchRdcollector 17161122170040401239915748StateParkRdcollector 10951120170040401240916762RBBakerDrcollector 16061120170040401241918619SRS40217collector 10651120175040361242919825US76minorarterial9192121190055491243919826US76collector 8181121170055491244920919WesternLncollector 517112017504549 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK111KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1245921810Rt34collector 11751120175040171246922921MtBethelGarmanyRdcollector 2351120175045171247923921HeritageDrcollector 3361120175045171248924103Rt215collector 5210112017006061249925448SRS20248localroadway444 11201750251612509264489thStcollector 5481120175045161251927254Rt391localroadway1353 1120175015321252927928Rt391collector 14081160157535321253928248Rt391localroadway1178 116090020251254928927Rt391localroadway1408 116067515321255929727SRS32231collector 30861121170050401256930270SRS4039collector 26431121170055341257930271ColumbiaAvecollector 25761121170040341258931267ColumbiaAvecollector 17521121170045341259931684ColumbiaAvelocalroadway280 112145010341260932238US76collector 22031121170050331261932239US76collector 3311120170040331262933782SRS32231collector 25431120170045331263934806Rt34collector 5881120175045251264935394US76minorarterial1229212117005548 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK112KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber1265935822US76minorarterial2482121175055491266936218US76minorarterial7382121175050461267936630US76collector 26071121175050461268937781StPetersChurchRdcollector 63511201750503412698363363I26freeway13422121222507517 12708401401US121collector 32491120170060412718470470US321collector 19691120170060912728664664US321collector 326111201700603712738813848US76minorarterial125121201750451712748824824I26freeway11603121222507049 12758827827US76collector 710112117004549(exitlink)3638363I26freeway13422121217004017(exit link)8248824I26freeway11603121222507049(exit link)3958395NWoodrowStlocalroadway1821 112017004048(exitlink)1418141Route200minorarterial1518112017004016(exit link)328032Rt215collector 2711112017004037(exit link)1118111Rt215collector 138511201700602 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK113KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5Link#UpStreamNodeDownStreamNodeRoadwayNameRoadwayTypeLength(ft.)No.ofLanesLaneWidth(ft.)ShoulderWidth(ft.)Saturation FlowRateFreeFlowSpeed(mph)GridNumber(exitlink)618061Rt34collector 2525112117003024(exit link)8148814Rt34collector 1311112017005525(exitlink)7208720Rt391collector 2561112017004539(exit link)3918391Rt6collector 1147112017004045(exit link)4268426SRS3645localroadway1418 11201700305(exitlink)4238423TygerRiverRdlocalroadway3508 11201700451(exit link)4018401US121collector 324911201700404(exit link)4708470US321collector 196911201700409(exit link)6648664US321collector 3259112017004037(exit link)8278827US76collector 710112119005549(exit link)8488813US76minorarterial1251212019005517 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK114KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableK2.NodesintheLinkNodeAnalysisNetworkwhichareControlledNodeXCoordinate(ft)YCoordinate (ft)ControlTypeGridNumber41911496894991Stop2181912834885637Pretimed29171922710880371Pretimed29271959516856040Stop37461946653917919Stop15521962746913783Stop23531963597914208Stop23571973568914560Pretimed16641975260907486Pretimed23681977480889467Stop31711979868867804Stop31781955055887075Stop30791954401883306Stop30801953102879588Stop30931910970921436Stop14961911338934631Stop141021909272951483Stop61281947729940827Stop81381969216931057Pretimed161401972852931198Stop161511893081939309Stop61591874758928482Pretimed121651851635915925Stop111671845917913655Pretimed181691907956884375Pretimed281721898174878380Pretimed281751887923876512Pretimed281901891330887858Stop282011893727865604Pretimed342031903507865161Stop342041906009864608Stop342071909899856956Stop352091913640851564Stop352131925727843456Pretimed352141927729842036Pretimed432181935205833250Pretimed46 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK115KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NodeXCoordinate(ft)YCoordinate (ft)ControlTypeGridNumber2211929300833820Pretimed432221928264833535Pretimed432251916773840828Pretimed422261914215840037Pretimed422301900395842456Pretimed342311896717845605Stop342331894029848768Pretimed342341891345849384Stop342391875232859771Stop332431854069866898Pretimed262481837043867416Stop252541839168864158Pretimed322601839068854571Stop322671894506849346Stop342721902600853098Pretimed342731902065852662Pretimed343021861003875622Stop263031860450875186Stop263081868304891041Stop193221835238895469Stop173231834676895072Stop173311824807891723Pretimed173501823747884118Stop253541835799906986Stop173581826624902132Stop173591826137901705Stop173821927396842532Stop353931942238827663Pretimed483971840210922799Stop113991828255933751Stop104001825745936206Stop104041869018933975Stop124201851300955539Yield54461969584923355Pretimed164471969639922538Stop164481970546918993Pretimed164571974218925375Pretimed164581974034926067Pretimed16 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK116KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NodeXCoordinate(ft)YCoordinate (ft)ControlTypeGridNumber4591973850926725Pretimed164601973598927665Pretimed164631969317935131Yield164691962095947214Stop94791940013892676Stop224821931941900827Stop215001903122926920Yield135271894645936764Stop135361868872895862Stop195451862986922093Stop125501964975915338Stop165841924062955240Yield75941909281952258Stop66011911161865403Stop356051918180848835Stop356101928355857925Stop356121934327834519Pretimed466151934959841889Pretimed466191945994844321Pretimed366301938052831492Pretimed466311940848833793Stop466331946188835599Stop476421968923894388Yield236461962281881967Stop316521965497900096Stop236551959414863337Stop376591967367865431Stop376681952124890379Stop306791886283838746Stop416841892686849075Pretimed346861907342838209Pretimed416911903740829368Stop417001894831843105Stop347101918583838193Stop427171920631839702Stop427191839724844591Stop327221863353831314Stop407251865777832965Stop40 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationK117KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NodeXCoordinate(ft)YCoordinate (ft)ControlTypeGridNumber7261872125835489Stop407331844027837778Stop397391853671849858Stop327491869063845416Stop337511876870841585Stop407671872413859055Stop337741861054858669Stop327751862229861286Stop337811890101848848Pretimed347961831959914399Stop177981913276921193Stop148061822011887157Pretimed258081820403890653Pretimed178091819990891514Pretimed178101819404892307Pretimed178111818491891066Stop178131816406896442Pretimed178221946539824365Pretimed498431820805891629Pretimed178481815511897807Pretimed178551894349848623Stop348581855883865773Pretimed328651928364840412Stop438681946797824324Stop498701947425824291Stop498761875629867952Stop278771875868868936Stop279191948780824120Pretimed499211819933893357Pretimed179321875529859918Stop339331875094846501Stop339351946313824468Stop49 APPENDIXLProtectiveActionZoneBoundaries EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationL1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5 PROTECTIVEACTIONZONEBOUNDARIESL.PAZA0County:FairfieldDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthbyalinefromFriendshipChurchonColeTrofelRoadeastacrossMonticelloReservoirtothenorthernjunctionofS213andS215.BoundedontheeastbybothsidesofS215fromthejunctionofS213andS215toParrRoad.BoundedonthesouthbybothsidesofParrRoad.BoundedonthewestbyBroadRiver,fromtheBroadRiveralongthesouthsideofthedirtextensionofColeTrofelRoadandalongtheeastsideofColeTrofelRoadtoFriendshipChurch.PAZA1County:FairfieldDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthbyDawkinsRoadfromtheBroadRivertoMeadowLakeRoad.BoundedontheeastbyS215tothesouthendofthetownofMonticello.BoundedonthesouthbyalinefromsouthofthetownofMonticelloonS215toFriendshipChurchalongthedirtextensionofColeTrofelRoadtotheBroadRiver.BoundedonthewestbytheBroadRiver.PAZA2County:FairfieldDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthbyBuckheadRoad.BoundedontheeastbyPossumBranchRoadtoS34easttothejunctionofS34andClarkBridgeRoad.BoundedonthesouthbybothsidesofDawkinsRoad,MeadowLakeRoad,andClarkBridgeRoad.BoundedonthewestbytheBroadRiver.PAZB1County:FairfieldDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthbybothsidesofClarkBridgeRoad.BoundedontheeastbytheLittleRiver.BoundedonthesouthbybothsidesofS213.BoundedonthewestbybothsidesofS215.PAZB2County:FairfieldDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthbybothsidesofClarkBridgeRoadandS34.BoundedontheeastbybothsidesofJacksonCreekRoad.BoundedonthesouthbybothsidesofReservoirRoad,LandisRoad,andS213.BoundedonthewestbytheLittleRiver.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationL2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5PAZC1County:FairfieldDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthbybothsidesofS212andLandisRoad.BoundedontheeastbybothsidesofKoonStoreRoad,Glenn'sBridgeRoad,S215,andWallacevilleRoad.BoundedonthesouthbytheBroadRiver.BoundedonthewestbyParrRoadandbothsidesofS213andS215.PAZC2County:FairfieldDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthbybothsidesofReservoirRoad,RionRoad,andKellerMillerRoadtoincludebothKellyMillerandGreenbriarSchools.BoundedontheeastbybothsidesofS269andBookmansMillRoadthenalongtheFairfieldCountylinetotheBroadRiver.BoundedonthesouthbytheBroadRiver.BoundedonthewestbybothsidesofWallacevilleRoad,S215,Glenn'sBridgeRoad,KoonStoreRoadandLandisRoad.PAZD1County:RichlandDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthandeastbytheBroadRiver.BoundedonthesouthbybothsidesofKennerlyRoad,Mt.VernonChurchRoad,andI26.BoundedonthewestbytheRichlandCountyline.PAZD2County:LexingtonDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:Boundedonthenorth,west,andeastbytheLexingtonCountyline.BoundedonthesouthbyUS76(ChapinRoad),SidBickleyRd,OldLexingtonRoadincludingChapinElementarySchool,OldBushRiverRduntilitends,crossthewatertoBearCreekRd,AmicksFerryRd,LesterFrickRd,andSt.Peter'sChruchRdtotheLexington/NewberryCountyline.PAZE1County:NewberryDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthbyCannonsCreek.BoundedontheeastbytheBroadRiver.BoundedonthesouthbyPeak(bytheNewberryCountyline)andbothsidesofCapersChapelRoad.BoundedonthewestbybothsidesofUS176andtheTownofPomariaandNewHopeRoad.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationL3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5PAZE2County:NewberryDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthbybothsidesofUS176.BoundedontheeastbytheNewberryCountyline.BoundedonthesouthbybothsidesofNurseryRoad,US76,theTownofLittleMountain,andUS76includingMidCarolinaSchool.BoundedonthewestbybothsidesofOldJollyStreetRoadtoI26easttoS773northtoUS176inPomaria.PAZF1County:NewberryDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthandeastbytheBroadRiver.BoundedonthesouthbyCannonsCreek.BoundedonthewestbybothsidesofNewHopeRoad.PAZF2County:NewberryDefinedastheareawithinthefollowingboundaries:BoundedonthenorthbybothsidesofMt.PleasantRoad,BroadRiverRoad,andS34.BoundedontheeastbytheBroadRiver,bothsidesofNewHopeRoad,S773,andUS176.BoundedonthesouthbybothsidesofI26.BoundedonthewestbybothsidesofBachmanChapelRoad,MudCreekRoad,LivingstonRoad,andRingerRoad.

APPENDIXMEvacuationSensitivityStudies EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationM1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5M. APPENDIXM:EVACUATIONSENSITIVITYSTUDIESThisappendixpresentstheresultsofaseriesofsensitivityanalyses.TheseanalysesaredesignedtoidentifychangesinEvacuationTimeEstimates(ETE)tochangesinsomebaseevacuationconditions.M.1 EffectofChangesinTripGenerationTimesAsensitivitystudywasperformedtodeterminewhetherchangesintheestimatedtripgenerationtimehaveaneffectontheETEfortheentireEPZ.Specifically,ifthetailofthemobilizationdistributionweretruncated(i.e.,ifthosewhorespondedmostslowlytotheAdvisorytoEvacuate,couldbepersuadedtorespondmuchmorerapidly),howwouldtheETEbeaffected?ThecaseconsideredwasScenario6,Region3;awinter,midweek,midday,goodweatherevacuationoftheentireEPZ.TableM1presentstheresultsofthisstudy.TableM1.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforTripGenerationSensitivityStudyTheresultsconfirmtheimportanceofaccuratelyestimatingthetripgeneration(mobilization)times.TheETEforthe100thpercentilecloselymirrorthevaluesforthetimethelastevacuationtripisgenerated.Incontrast,the90thpercentileETEisinsensitivetotruncatingthetailofthemobilizationtimedistribution.AsindicatedinSection7.3,thereisnocongestionwithintheEPZaftertheAdvisorytoEvacuate.Theresultsofthissensitivitystudyindicatethatprogramstoeducatethepublicandencouragethemtowardfasterresponsesforaradiologicalemergency,translatesintoshorterETEatthe100thpercentile.Theresultsalsojustifytheguidancetoemploythe[stable]90thpercentileETEwhenmakingprotectiveactionrecommendationsanddecisions.TripGenerationPeriodEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90thPercentile100thPercentile2Hours30Minutes2:102:403Hours30Minutes2:153:404Hours45Minutes(Base)2:254:55 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationM2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5M.2 EffectofChangesintheNumberofPeopleintheShadowRegionWhoRelocateAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesinthepercentageofpeoplewhodecidetorelocatefromtheShadowRegion.ThecaseconsideredwasScenario6,Region3;awinter,midweek,midday,goodweatherevacuationfortheentireEPZ.ThemovementofpeopleintheShadowRegionhasthepotentialtoimpedevehiclesevacuatingfromanEvacuationRegionwithintheEPZ.RefertoSection7.1foradditionalinformationonpopulationwithintheShadowRegion.TableM2presentstheETEforeachofthecasesconsidered.TheresultsshowthatreducingtheshadowevacuationpercentagedoesnotmateriallyaffecttheETEateitherthe90thor100thpercentiles.However,triplingtheshadowpercentagedoesaffectthe90thpercentileETE,increasingitby15minutes.TableM2.EvacuationTimeEstimatesforShadowSensitivityStudyPercentShadowEvacuationEvacuatingShadowVehiclesEvacuationTimeEstimateforEntireEPZ90thPercentile100thPercentile002:154:55154,9062:154:5520(Base)6,5792:254:556019,6252:405:00 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationM3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5M.3 EffectofChangesinEPZResidentPopulationAsensitivitystudywasconductedtodeterminetheeffectonETEofchangesintheresidentpopulationwithintheEPZ.AspopulationintheEPZchangesovertime,thetimerequiredtoevacuatethepublicmayincrease,decrease,orremainthesame.SincetheETEisrelatedtothedemandtocapacityratiopresentwithintheEPZ,changesinpopulationwillcausethedemandsideoftheequationtochange.Thesensitivitystudywasconductedusingthefollowingplanningassumptions:1. ThechangeinpopulationwithintheEPZwastreatedparametrically.Thepercentpopulationchangewasvariedbetween+/-30%.Changesinpopulationwereappliedtopermanentresidentsonly(asperfederalguidance),inboththeEPZareaandtheShadowRegion.2. Thetransportationinfrastructureremainedfixed;thepresenceofnewroadsorhighwaycapacityimprovementswasnotconsidered.3. Thestudywasperformedforthe2MileRegion(R01),the5MileRegion(R02),andtheentireEPZ(R03).4. ThegoodweatherscenariowhichyieldedthehighestETEvalueswasselectedasthecaseconsideredinthesensitivitystudy(Scenario6).TableM3presentstheresultsofthesensitivitystudy.SectionIVofAppendixEto10CFRPart50,andNUREG/CR7002,Section5.4,requirelicenseestoprovideanupdatedETEanalysistotheNRCwhenapopulationincreasewithintheEPZcausesETEvalues(forthe2MileRegion,5MileRegion,orentireEPZ)toincreaseby25percentor30minutes,whicheverisless.NotethatthebaseETEvaluesforthe5MileandentireEPZaregreaterthan2hours;25percentofthebaseETEisalwaysgreaterthan30minutes.Therefore,30minutesisthelesserandisthecriterionforupdatingforthe5MileandentireEPZETE.ThebaseETEforthe2Mileregionis1:35;thecriterionforupdatingwouldbe25percentofthis,or25minutes(roundedtonearest5minutes).TheETEvaluesforthe90thpercentileandthe100thpercentileareinsensitivetochangesinpopulationbetween+30percent.Theexistinghighwaynetworkhassufficientreservecapacitytoaccommodateanyreasonablepopulationincrease.ReducingpopulationhasnoeffectbecausetheETEvaluesreflectaminimumevacuationtimeconsistentwithtripgenerationestimates.NoneoftheETEmeetthecriteriaforupdatingETEbetweendecennialCensuses.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationM4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5TableM3.ETEVariationwithPopulationChangeResidentPopulationBasePopulationChangeBasePopulationChange10%20%30%10%20%30%14,17515,59317,01018,42814,17512,75811,3409,923ETEfor90thPercentileRegionPopulationChangePopulationChangeBase10%20%30%Base10%20%30%2MILE1:351:401:451:451:351:351:351:355MILE2:152:202:202:202:152:152:152:10FULLEPZ2:252:252:252:252:252:202:202:15ETEfor100thPercentileRegionPopulationChangePopulationChangeBase10%20%30%Base10%20%30%2MILE4:454:454:454:454:454:454:454:455MILE4:504:504:504:504:504:504:504:50FULLEPZ4:554:554:554:554:554:554:554:55 APPENDIXNETECriteriaChecklist EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN1KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5N. ETECRITERIACHECKLISTTableN1.ETEReviewCriteriaChecklistNRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments1.0Introductiona. Theemergencyplanningzone(EPZ)andsurroundingareashouldbedescribed.YesSection1b. Amapshouldbeincludedthatidentifiesprimaryfeaturesofthesite,includingmajorroadways,significanttopographicalfeatures,boundariesofcounties,andpopulationcenterswithintheEPZ.YesFigure11c. AcomparisonofthecurrentandpreviousETEshouldbeprovidedandincludessimilarinformationasidentifiedinTable11,"ETEComparison,"ofNUREG/CR7002.YesTable131.1Approacha. Adiscussionoftheapproachandlevelofdetailobtainedduringthefieldsurveyoftheroadwaynetworkshouldbeprovided.YesSection1.3b. Sourcesofdemographicdataforschools,specialfacilities,largeemployers,andspecialeventsshouldbeidentified.YesSection2.1Section3c. Discussionshouldbepresentedonuseoftrafficcontrolplansintheanalysis.YesSection1.3,Section2.2,Section9,AppendixGd. Trafficsimulationmodelsusedfortheanalysesshouldbeidentifiedbynameandversion.YesSection1.3,Table13,AppendixB,AppendixC EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN2KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentse. Methodsusedtoaddressdatauncertaintiesshouldbedescribed.YesSection3-avoiddoublecountingSection5,AppendixF-4%samplingerrorat95%confidenceintervalfortelephonesurvey1.2Assumptionsa. TheplanningbasisfortheETEincludestheassumptionthattheevacuationshouldbeorderedpromptlyandnoearlyprotectiveactionshavebeenimplemented.YesSection2.3-Assumption1Section5.1b. AssumptionsconsistentwithTable12,"GeneralAssumptions,"ofNUREG/CR7002shouldbeprovidedandincludethebasistosupporttheiruse.YesSections2.2,2.31.3ScenarioDevelopmenta. ThetenscenariosinTable13,EvacuationScenarios,shouldbedevelopedfortheETEanalysis,orareasonshouldbeprovidedforuseofotherscenarios.YesTables21,621.3.1StagedEvacuationa. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedontheapproachusedindevelopmentofastagedevacuation.YesSections5.4.2,7.21.4EvacuationPlanningAreasa. AmapofEPZwithemergencyresponseplanningareas(ERPAs)shouldbeincluded.YesFigure61b. AtableshouldbeprovidedidentifyingtheERPAsconsideredforeachETEcalculationbydownwinddirectionineachsector.YesTable61 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN3KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. AtablesimilartoTable14,"EvacuationAreasforaStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR7002shouldbeprovidedandincludesthecompleteevacuationofthe2,5,and10mileareasandforthe2milearea/5milekeyholeevacuations.YesTable752.0DemandEstimationa. Demandestimationshouldbedevelopedforthefourpopulationgroups,includingpermanentresidentsoftheEPZ,transients,specialfacilities,andschools.YesPermanentresidents,employees,transients-Section3,AppendixESpecialfacilities,schools-Section8,AppendixE2.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulationa. TheUSCensusshouldbethesourceofthepopulationvalues,oranothercrediblesourceshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.1b. PopulationvaluesshouldbeadjustedasnecessaryforgrowthtoreflectpopulationestimatestotheyearoftheETE.Yes2010usedasthebaseyearforanalysis.Nogrowthofpopulationnecessary.c. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure21,"PopulationbySector,"ofNUREG/CR7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforpermanentresidents.YesFigure322.1.1PermanentResidentswithVehiclesa. Thepersonspervehiclevalueshouldbebetween1and2orjustificationshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.Yes1.01personspervehicle-Table13b. Majoremployersshouldbelisted.YesAppendixE-TableE32.1.2TransientPopulation EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN4KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Alistoffacilitieswhichattracttransientpopulationsshouldbeincluded,andpeakandaverageattendanceforthesefacilitiesshouldbelisted.Thesourceofinformationusedtodevelopattendancevaluesshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4,AppendixEb. Theaveragepopulationduringtheseasonshouldbeused,itemizedandtotaledforeachscenario.YesTables34,35andAppendixEitemizethetransientpopulationandemployeeestimates.TheseestimatesaremultipliedbythescenariospecificpercentagesprovidedinTable63toestimatetransientpopulationbyscenario.c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsassumedtobeatfacilitiesshouldbeestimated.YesSections3.3,3.4d. Thenumberofpeoplepervehicleshouldbeprovided.Numbersmayvarybyscenario,andifso,discussiononwhyvaluesvaryshouldbeprovided.YesSections3.3,3.4e. Asectordiagramshouldbeincluded,similartoFigure21ofNUREG/CR7002,showingthepopulationdistributionforthetransientpopulation.YesFigure36-transientsFigure38-employees2.2TransitDependentPermanentResidentsa. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberoftransitdependentresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.1,Table81b. Transportationresourcesneededtoevacuatethisgroupshouldbequantified.YesSection8.1,Tables85,810c. Thecounty/localevacuationplansfortransitdependentresidentsshouldbeusedintheanalysis.YesSections8.1,8.4 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN5KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsd. Themethodologyusedtodeterminethenumberofpeoplewithdisabilitiesandthosewithaccessandfunctionalneedswhomayneedassistanceanddonotresideinspecialfacilitiesshouldbeprovided.Datafromlocal/countyregistrationprogramsshouldbeusedintheestimate,butshouldnotbetheonlysetofdata.YesSection8.5e. Capacitiesshouldbeprovidedforalltypesoftransportationresources.Busseatingcapacityof50%shouldbeusedorjustificationshouldbeprovidedforhighervalues.YesSection2.3-Assumption10Sections3.5,8.1,8.2,8.3f. Anestimateofthispopulationshouldbeprovidedandinformationshouldbeprovidedthattheexistingregistrationprogramswereusedindevelopingtheestimate.YesTable81-transitdependentsSection8.4-specialneedsg. Asummarytableofthetotalnumberofbuses,ambulances,orothertransportneededtosupportevacuationshouldbeprovidedandthequantificationofresourcesshouldbedetailedenoughtoassuredoublecountinghasnotoccurred.YesSection8.4-page86Table85,Section8.32.3SpecialFacilityResidentsa. Alistofspecialfacilities,includingthetypeoffacility,location,andaveragepopulationshouldbeprovided.Specialfacilitystaffshouldbeincludedinthetotalspecialfacilitypopulation.YesAppendixE,TablesE1,E2-listfacilities,type,location,andpopulationb. Adiscussionshouldbeprovidedonhowspecialfacilitydatawasobtained.YesSections8.2,8.3 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN6KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsc. Thenumberofwheelchairandbedboundindividualsshouldbeprovided.YesSection3.5d. Anestimateofthenumberandcapacityofvehiclesneededtosupporttheevacuationofthefacilityshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3Tables84,85e. Thelogisticsformobilizingspeciallytrainedstaff(e.g.,medicalsupportorsecuritysupportforprisons,jails,andothercorrectionalfacilities)shouldbediscussedwhenappropriate.YesSection3.5NocorrectionalfacilitiesexistwithintheEPZ.Section8.4-page892.4Schoolsa. Alistofschoolsincludingname,location,studentpopulation,andtransportationresourcesrequiredtosupporttheevacuation,shouldbeprovided.Thesourceofthisinformationshouldbeprovided.YesTable82Section8.2b. Transportationresourcesforelementaryandmiddleschoolsshouldbebasedon100%oftheschoolcapacity.YesTable82c. Theestimateofhighschoolstudentswhowillusetheirpersonalvehicletoevacuateshouldbeprovidedandabasisforthevaluesusedshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.2d. Theneedforreturntripsshouldbeidentifiedifnecessary.YesTherearesufficientresourcestoevacuateschoolsinasinglewave.However,Section8.3andFigure81discussthepotentialforamultiplewaveevacuation EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN7KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments2.5.1SpecialEventsa. Acompletelistofspecialeventsshouldbeprovidedandincludesinformationonthepopulation,estimatedduration,andseasonoftheevent.YesSection3.7b. ThespecialeventthatencompassesthepeaktransientpopulationshouldbeanalyzedintheETE.YesSection3.7c. Thepercentofpermanentresidentsattendingtheeventshouldbeestimated.YesSection3.72.5.2ShadowEvacuationa. Ashadowevacuationof20percentshouldbeincludedforareasoutsidetheevacuationareaextendingto15milesfromtheNPP.YesSection2.2-Assumption5Figure21Section3.2b. Populationestimatesfortheshadowevacuationinthe10to15mileareabeyondtheEPZareprovidedbysector.YesSection3.2Figure34Table33c. Theloadingoftheshadowevacuationontotheroadwaynetworkshouldbeconsistentwiththetripgenerationtimegeneratedforthepermanentresidentpopulation.YesSection5-Table582.5.3BackgroundandPassThroughTraffic EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN8KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Thevolumeofbackgroundtrafficandpassthroughtrafficisbasedontheaveragedaytimetraffic.Valuesmaybereducedfornighttimescenarios.YesSection3.6Table36Section6Table63b. PassthroughtrafficisassumedtohavestoppedenteringtheEPZabouttwohoursaftertheinitialnotification.YesSection2.3-Assumption5Section3.62.6SummaryofDemandEstimationa. Asummarytableshouldbeprovidedthatidentifiesthetotalpopulationsandtotalvehiclesusedinanalysisforpermanentresidents,transients,transitdependentresidents,specialfacilities,schools,shadowpopulation,andpassthroughdemandusedineachscenario.YesTables37,383.0RoadwayCapacitya. Themethod(s)usedtoassessroadwaycapacityshouldbediscussed.YesSection43.1RoadwayCharacteristicsa. AfieldsurveyofkeyrouteswithintheEPZhasbeenconducted.YesSection1.3b. Informationshouldbeprovideddescribingtheextentofthesurvey,andtypesofinformationgatheredandusedintheanalysis.YesSection1.3c. AtablesimilartothatinAppendixA,"RoadwayCharacteristics,"ofNUREG/CR7002shouldbeprovided.YesAppendixK,TableK1 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN9KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsd. Calculationsforarepresentativeroadwaysegmentshouldbeprovided.YesSection4e. AlegiblemapoftheroadwaysystemthatidentifiesnodenumbersandsegmentsusedtodeveloptheETEshouldbeprovidedandshouldbesimilartoFigure31,"RoadwayNetworkIdentifyingNodesandSegments,"ofNUREG/CR7002.YesAppendixK,FiguresK1throughK50presenttheentirelinknodeanalysisnetworkatascalesuitabletoidentifyalllinksandnodes3.2CapacityAnalysisa. Theapproachusedtocalculatetheroadwaycapacityforthetransportationnetworkshouldbedescribedindetailandidentifiesfactorsthatshouldbeexpresslyusedinthemodeling.YesSection4b. ThecapacityanalysisidentifieswherefieldinformationshouldbeusedintheETEcalculation.YesSection1.3,Section43.3IntersectionControla. Alistofintersectionsshouldbeprovidedthatincludesthetotalnumberofintersectionsmodeledthatareunsignalized,signalized,ormannedbyresponsepersonnel.YesAppendixK,TableK2b. Characteristicsforthe10highestvolumeintersectionswithintheEPZareprovidedincludingthelocation,signalcyclelength,andturnlanequeuecapacity.YesTableJ1c. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonhowsignalcycletimeisusedinthecalculations.YesSection4.1,AppendixC.3.4AdverseWeather EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN10KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Theadverseweatherconditionshouldbeidentifiedandtheeffectsofadverseweatheronmobilizationtimeshouldbeconsidered.YesTable21,Section2.3-Assumption9Mobilizationtime-Table22,Section5.3(page510)b. ThespeedandcapacityreductionfactorsidentifiedinTable31,"WeatherCapacityFactors,"ofNUREG/CR7002shouldbeusedorabasisshouldbeprovidedforothervalues.YesTable22-basedonHCM2010.ThefactorsprovidedinTable31ofNUREG/CR7002arefromHCM2000.c. Thestudyidentifiesassumptionsforsnowremovalonstreetsanddriveways,whenapplicable.YesNotApplicable4.0DevelopmentofEvacuationTimes4.1TripGenerationTimea. Theprocessusedtodeveloptripgenerationtimesshouldbeidentified.YesSection5b. Whentelephonesurveysareused,thescopeofthesurvey,areaofsurvey,numberofparticipants,andstatisticalrelevanceshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixFc. Dataobtainedfromtelephonesurveysshouldbesummarized.YesAppendixFd. Thetripgenerationtimeforeachpopulationgroupshouldbedevelopedfromsitespecificinformation.YesSection5,AppendixF4.1.1PermanentResidentsandTransientPopulation EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN11KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Permanentresidentsareassumedtoevacuatefromtheirhomesbutarenotassumedtobeathomeatalltimes.Tripgenerationtimeincludestheassumptionthatapercentageofresidentswillneedtoreturnhomepriortoevacuating.YesSection5discussestripgenerationforhouseholdswithandwithoutreturningcommuters.Table63presentsthepercentageofhouseholdswithreturningcommutersandthepercentageofhouseholdseitherwithoutreturningcommutersorwithnocommuters.AppendixFpresentsthepercenthouseholdswhowillawaitthereturnofcommuters.b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonthetimeandmethodusedtonotifytransients.Thetripgenerationtimediscussesanydifficultiesnotifyingpersonsinhardtoreachareassuchasonlakesorincampgrounds.YesSection5.4.3c. Thetripgenerationtimeaccountsfortransientspotentiallyreturningtohotelspriortoevacuating.YesSection5,Figure51d. Effectofpublictransportationresourcesusedduringspecialeventswherealargenumberoftransientsshouldbeexpectedshouldbeconsidered.YesSection3.7e. Thetripgenerationtimeforthetransientpopulationshouldbeintegratedandloadedontothetransportationnetworkwiththegeneralpublic.YesSection5,Table594.1.2TransitDependentResidents EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN12KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsa. Ifavailable,existingplansandbusroutesshouldbeusedintheETEanalysis.IfnewplansshouldbedevelopedwiththeETE,theyhavebeenagreeduponbytheresponsibleauthorities.YesSection8.3-Preestablishedbusroutesdonotexist.BasicbusroutesweredevelopedfortheETEanalysis-seeFigure82,Table810.b. Discussionshouldbeincludedonthemeansofevacuatingambulatoryandnonambulatoryresidents.YesSection8.4c. Thenumber,location,andavailabilityofbuses,andotherresourcesneededtosupportthedemandestimationshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4d. Logisticaldetails,suchasthetimetoobtainbuses,briefdrivers,andinitiatethebusrouteshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4,Figure81e. Discussionshouldidentifythetimeestimatedfortransitdependentresidentstoprepareandtraveltoabuspickuppoint,anddescribestheexpectedmeansoftraveltothepickuppoint.YesSection8.3f. Thenumberofbusstopsandtimeneededtoloadpassengersshouldbediscussed.YesSection8.3g. Amapofbusroutesshouldbeincluded.YesFigure82h. Thetripgenerationtimefornonambulatorypersonsincludesthetimetomobilizeambulancesorspecialvehicles,timetodrivetothehomeofresidents,loadingtime,andtimetodriveoutoftheEPZshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4i. Informationshouldbeprovidedtosupportsanalysisofreturntrips,ifnecessary.YesSections8.3,8.4Figure81Tables81through813 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN13KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments4.1.3SpecialFacilitiesa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4,Tables87through89,811through813b. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSections8.4.c. Thenumberofwheelchairandbedboundsindividualsshouldbeprovided,andthelogisticsofevacuatingtheseresidentsshouldbediscussed.YesTables84d. TimeforloadingofresidentsshouldbeprovidedYesSection8.4e. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsshouldbeneeded.YesSection8.4,Table85f. Ifreturntripsshouldbeneeded,thedestinationofvehiclesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4g. Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherspecialfacilityresidentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesSection8.4h. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesSection8.4.Tables811through813.4.1.4Schoolsa. Informationonevacuationlogisticsandmobilizationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.4 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN14KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Discussionshouldbeprovidedontheinboundandoutboundspeeds.YesSchoolbusroutesarepresentedinTable86.SchoolbusspeedsarepresentedinTables87(goodweather),88(rain),and89(ice).OutboundspeedsaredefinedastheminimumoftheevacuationroutespeedandtheStateschoolbusspeedlimit.InboundspeedsarelimitedtotheStateschoolbusspeedlimit.c. Timeforloadingofstudentsshouldbeprovided.YesTables87through89,DiscussioninSection8.4d. Informationshouldbeprovidedthatindicateswhethertheevacuationcanbecompletedinasingletriporifadditionaltripsareneeded.YesSection8.4-page88e. Ifreturntripsareneeded,thedestinationofschoolbusesshouldbeprovided.YesReturntripsarenotneededf. Ifused,receptioncentersshouldbeidentified.Discussionshouldbeprovidedonwhetherstudentsareexpectedtopassthroughthereceptioncenterpriortobeingevacuatedtotheirfinaldestination.YesTable83.Studentsareevacuatedtoreceivingschoolswheretheywillbepickedupbyparentsorguardians.g. Supportinginformationshouldbeprovidedtoquantifythetimeelementsforthereturntrips.YesReturntripsarenotneeded.Tables87through89providetimeneededtoarriveatcarecenter,whichcouldbeusedtocomputeasecondwaveevacuationifnecessary EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN15KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments4.2ETEModelinga. GeneralinformationaboutthemodelshouldbeprovidedanddemonstratesitsuseinETEstudies.YesDYNEVII(Ver.4.0.0.0).Section1.3,Table13,AppendixB,AppendixC.b. IfatrafficsimulationmodelisnotusedtoconducttheETEcalculation,sufficientdetailshouldbeprovidedtovalidatetheanalyticalapproachused.Allcriteriaelementsshouldhavebeenmet,asappropriate.NoNotapplicableasatrafficsimulationmodelwasused.4.2.1TrafficSimulationModelInputa. Trafficsimulationmodelassumptionsandarepresentativesetofmodelinputsshouldbeprovided.YesAppendicesBandCdescribethesimulationmodelassumptionsandalgorithmsTableJ2b. Aglossaryoftermsshouldbeprovidedforthekeyperformancemeasuresandparametersusedintheanalysis.YesAppendixATablesC1,C24.2.2TrafficSimulationModelOutputa. AdiscussionregardingwhetherthetrafficsimulationmodelusedmustbeinequilibrationpriortocalculatingtheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixB EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN16KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. Theminimumfollowingmodeloutputsshouldbeprovidedtosupportreview:1. TotalvolumeandpercentbyhourateachEPZexitnode.2. Networkwideaveragetraveltime.3. Longestqueuelengthforthe10intersectionswiththehighesttrafficvolume.4. Totalvehiclesexitingthenetwork.5. AplotthatprovidesboththemobilizationcurveandevacuationcurveidentifyingthecumulativepercentageofevacueeswhohavemobilizedandexitedtheEPZ.6. AveragespeedforeachmajorevacuationroutethatexitstheEPZ.Yes1. TableJ5.2. TableJ3.3. TableJ1.4. TableJ3.5. FiguresJ1throughJ14(oneplotforeachscenarioconsidered

).6. TableJ4.NetworkwideaveragespeedalsoprovidedinTableJ3.c. Colorcodedroadwaymapsshouldbeprovidedforvarioustimes(i.e.,at2,4,6hrs.,etc.)duringafullEPZevacuationscenario,identifyingareaswherelongqueuesexistincludinglevelofservice(LOS)"E"andLOS"F"conditions,iftheyoccur.YesFigures73and744.3EvacuationTimeEstimatesfortheGeneralPublica. TheETEshouldincludethetimetoevacuate90%and100%ofthetotalpermanentresidentandtransientpopulationYesTables71,72 EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN17KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisCommentsb. TheETEfor100%ofthegeneralpublicshouldincludeallmembersofthegeneralpublic.Anyreductionsortruncateddatashouldbeexplained.YesSection5.4-truncatingsurveydatatoeliminatestatisticaloutliersTable72-100thpercentileETEforgeneralpublicc. Tablesshouldbeprovidedforthe90and100percentETEssimilartoTable43,"ETEsforStagedEvacuationKeyhole,"ofNUREG/CR7002.YesTables73,74d. ETEsshouldbeprovidedforthe100percentevacuationofspecialfacilities,transitdependent,andschoolpopulations.YesSection8.4Tables87through89Tables811through8135.0OtherConsiderations5.1DevelopmentofTrafficControlPlansa. Informationthatresponsibleauthoritieshaveapprovedthetrafficcontrolplanusedintheanalysisshouldbeprovided.YesSection9,AppendixGb. AdiscussionofadjustmentsoradditionstothetrafficcontrolplanthataffecttheETEshouldbeprovided.YesAppendixG5.2EnhancementsinEvacuationTimea. Theresultsofassessmentsforimprovementofevacuationtimeshouldbeprovided.YesSection13,AppendixMb. Astatementordiscussionregardingpresentationofenhancementstolocalauthoritiesshouldbeprovided.YesResultsoftheETEstudywereformallypresentedtolocalauthoritiesatthefinalprojectmeeting.Recommendedenhancementswerediscussed.

EP100Appendix5VirgilC.SummerNuclearStationN18KLDEngineering,P.C.EvacuationTimeEstimateRev.5NRCReviewCriteriaCriterionAddressedinETEAnalysisComments5.3StateandLocalReviewa. Alistofagenciescontactedandtheextentofinteractionwiththeseagenciesshouldbediscussed.YesTable11b. InformationshouldbeprovidedonanyunresolvedissuesthatmayaffecttheETE.YesTherearenounresolvedissues.Allissuesraisedbystakeholdersatboththeprojectkickoffmeetingsandthefinalmeetinghavebeenaddressedandincorporatedinthisfinalreport.5.4ReviewsandUpdatesa. AdiscussionofwhenanupdatedETEanalysisisrequiredtobeperformedandsubmittedtotheNRC.YesAppendixM,SectionM.35.5ReceptionCentersandCongregateCareCentera. Amapofcongregatecarecentersandreceptioncentersshouldbeprovided.YesFigure101b. Ifreturntripsarerequired,assumptionsusedtoestimatereturntimesforbusesshouldbeprovided.YesSection8.3discussesamultiwaveevacuationprocedure.Figure81c. Itshouldbeclearlystatedifitisassumedthatpassengersareleftatthereceptioncenterandaretakenbyseparatebusestothecongregatecarecenter.YesSection2.3-Assumption7hSection10 TechnicalReviewer_________________

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