ML17340B082
| ML17340B082 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Turkey Point  |
| Issue date: | 04/27/1981 |
| From: | Abbey R Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation |
| To: | |
| Shared Package | |
| ML17340B081 | List: |
| References | |
| NUDOCS 8104280071 | |
| Download: ML17340B082 (22) | |
Text
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR. REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD In the Matter of FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT COMPANY (Turkey Point Nuclear Generating Unit Nos.
3 and 4)
)
)
Docket Hos.
50-250
)
50-251
)
(Proposed Amendments to Facility
)
Operating Licenses to Permit
)
Steam Generator Repair)
AFFIDAVIT OF ROBERT F.
ABBEY JR.
ON CONTENTION 4B I, Robert F. Abbey, Jr., being duly sworn, state.
as. follows:
1.
I am employed by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory'ommission as a
Senior Environmental Scientist (Meteorologist), presently on detail to
.the Division of Systems Integration, Office of Nuclear Reactor Regu-lation, from the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research.
2.
Contention 4B states:
"There are likely to occur radioactive releases, (from the steam generator repair) to unrestricted areas which violate 10 CFR Part 20 or are not as low as is reasonably achievable within the meaning, of 10 CFR Part 50 as a result of a hurricane or tornado striking the site during the steam generator re-pairs."
3.
I have reviewed the tornado, hurricane, and fastest-mile wind-speed data corresponding to the area encompassing the Turkey Point plant site.
The data, in part, consisted of frequency of occurrence of tornadoes
.and hurricanes, their associated windspeeds:.(measured and calculated),
and the actual date of occurrence of each, event.
The data period of record for tornadoes was 1950-1979; the data period for hurricanes was 1871-1978.
The area that encompasses the Turkey 123 Point site was considered to be 50 miles in coastline length.
8 X 04280,0 p y
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a.
All major hurricanes (windspeeds greater than 110 mph) in the southeast area of Florida have occurred in August, September, and October only; with one,
- seven, and two occurrences, respectively.
For the 50 mile segment 5
encompassing the Turkey Point site, the earliest recorded hurricane made landfall, on September 8; the latest occurring hurricane occurred on October 21.
The hurricane season is 2
defined as June 1 through November 30.
Hurricanes are 6
tropical cyclones that have attained windspeeds at least 74 mph.,
b.
The tornado season is more difficult to, define.
Within 125 nautical miles of the Turkey Point site, 253 tornadoes have been reported in the period 1950-1980.
Of these tornadoes, 14 occurred in the months of January and December combined; 51 tornadoes were reported in June, the maximum in any one month.
In the one degree square encompassing the Turkey Point site, 37 tornadoes have been reported in the period 1950-1979.
One tornado had estimated windspeeds in the range 207-260 mph; one tornado had estimated windspeeds in the range 158-206 mph; three tornadoes had estimated windspeeds 113-157 mph; nine with windspeeds73-112 mph; and 23 had windspeeds between 40-72 mph.
c.
The windspeed hazard probabilities for the Turkey Point site have been calculated; the fastest-nile windspeeds from Key West, Florida have been used to represent the Turkey Point site.
These are thought to be conservative (higher) windspeeds that would occur at Turkey Point due to the more exposed
4 location of Key I!est as compared to Turkey Point.
Table 1
summarizes the results of these calculations.
0
~I
4 TABLE 1
SUMMARY
OF WINDSPEED HAZARD PROBABILITIES FOR TURKEY POINT Mean Recurrence Interval r
10 100 1,000 2,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 10,000,000 100,000,000 Hazard Proba)ility r
1.0 x 10 1.0 x 10 1.0 x 10 5.0 x 10 1.0 x 10 1.0 x 10 1.0 x 10 1.0 x 10 1.0 x 10 Expected Winds eed m h 73 105/110*
136 142*
167 198 228 272 311 straight wind straight wind/
hurricane straight wind/
hurricane straight wind/
hurricane straight wind/
hurricane hurricane hurricane tornado tornado
'Computed for hurricane windspeeds only.
4l Ot.
4.
A windspeed sufficient to dislodge and overturn the replaced steam generator lower assembly (SGLA) following its removal from the containment and prior to its destined onsite storage when located on two three-foot high supports ranges from 390 mph to 635 mph depending on the support width; the narrower the distance between
- supports, the less wind-speed required to overturn the SGLA.
The greatest recorded hurricane windspeed at the site is about 150 mph; the greatest inferred tornado windspeed is between 207 and 260 mph.
As shown in Table 1, the probability of the site experiencing a
150 mph windspeed event is.about 5
4 x 10
/yr; the probability of the site experiencing a 260 mph event is
-7 1.5 x 10
/yr.
The probability of a windspeed necessary to overturn the SGLA is on the order of 1 x 10
/yr.
These windspeeds could only be
-10 caused by a tornado passage.
Should the SGLA be in the containment building during a tornado
- passage, no appreciable, if any, damage would
- result, even considering the hatch door to be open.
5.
Based on my review of the possibility of tornadoes or hurricanes causing the SGLAs to be moved or bump into one another or other solid
- object, I conclude that the SGLAs have an extremely small probability (1 x 10
/yr) of even being moved by the wind, let alone cause a release of radioactive material.
This conclusion is based on the following:
1) the season for hurricanes (September-late October) for the Turkey Point site compared to the proposed SGLA repair schedule (approximately October-June)',
2) the remote chance of a tornado occurrence, much less a
tornado, of the magnitude required to move the SGLA;
Ql h 3) the remote probability of a windspeed occurring sufficient to dislodge the SGLA from its supports (1 x 10
/yr based on worst case support width); and 4) the unlikely chance that even if the SGLA should be moved, it would strike some other object with an impact as great as for the 12 ft drop analyzed in Section 4.4 of the Final Environmental Statement (NUREG-0743) related to the stean generator repair.
6.
I have. examined the probabil'ities associated with tornado or hurricane generated missiles (projectiles) with regard to their penetrating the SGLA when the SGLA is outside of the containment building.
In addition to the probability of the site experiencing a
hurricane or tornado of sufficient windspeed, the following probabilities have to be factored in:
a.
the probability that a significant postulated missile exists at the site in such a location (generally not on the ground) as to make itself available for pickup; b.
the probability that once the missile is picked up it will transverse such a path so as to strike the SGLA; c.
the probability that the missile will attain a speed necessary to penetrate the steel shell of the SGLA; d.'he probability that the missile with the required speed will penetrate the SGLA in a critical part so as to breach the SGLA in such a manner as to expose radioactive material to the passage of air; and
~
~
r,
e.
the, probability that once exposed to the air, the radio-active material will become airborne and disperse downwind.
7.
Hurricane winds have not been known to cause large objects to become projectiles with sufficient velocity to penetrate reinforced concrete buildings.
The most likely generating event would then be a
tornado; the tornado begins to dominate the windspeed'azard probabilities at about a level of 1.5 x 10
/yr with a windspeed of about 260 mph.
If one assumes that the probabilities associated with 6(a)-(e) equal 1, then the probability of missiles eventually causing a release of radioactive material from a SGLA during transit from the containment to
-7 temporary outside storage is at least of the order 1 x 10
/yr.
8.
It can reasonably be argued that the probabilities associated with 6(a)-(e) are of the order 1 x 10
/yr or less.
This would yield the probability of missiles caused by tornadoes resulting in release of radioactive material to be on the order of 1 x 10
/yr or less.
It is important to realize that if the breaching of the SGLA be by a tornado (or even by a hurricane with windspeeds about 100 mph)', that the resulting dilution of the radioactive material would be increased in proportion to the windspeed.
9.
In the FES, Section 4.4, the limiting accident, the 12 foot
- drop, assumed a windspeed of 2 mph and very stable atmospheric conditions.
A tornado or hurricane passage would increase the dilution a factor of 50 to 150 by virtue of the windspeed alone; and yet again increase the dilution by virtue of the highly unstable conditions giving rise to dispersion coefficients greater than those used for the 12 foot drop.
This, in turn, would increase the dilution even more.
4>>
C 10.
I concur with the previous staff analysis and conclusion con-cerning the potential effects of breaching the SGLA outside of contain-ment; the pertinent portion of Section 8.6.5 of the FES reads:
...breaching the generators during the transit from the containment to the storage building has been considered by the staff (Section 4.4).
Regardless of the mechanism, the staff concluded that the most pessimistic result (i.e., the largest calculated dose) is as indicated; namely, dropping the generator outside containment during normal (non-storm) meteorological conditions.
Should the breaching mechanism be by hurricane or tornado, which is a highly unlikely occurrence due to the weight of the generators and the strength of the welds, the conservatively evaluated release would be the same.
However, the dispersion factor would be much larger and the environmental impact thus reduced.
Subscribe) and sworn to efore me thisA7~8 day of pygmy'obert F. Abbey, Jr.
No ary Public Ny Commission expires:
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References:
1.
Neumann, C.J., et al.,: Tro ical C clones of the North Atlantic Ocean 1871-1977.
National Climatic Center, Asheville, N.C.,
170 pp.
1978 2.
- Schwerdt, R.W., Ho, F.P.,
and Watkins, R.R.,: Meteorological Criteria for Standard Project Hurricane and Probable Maximum Hurricane Windfields, Gulf and East Casts of the United States.
NOAA Tech.
Re t.
NWS 23, National Oceanic 8 Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Washington, D.C., pp. 4, 77, 81-91 (1979).
3.
- Hebert, P.J.
and Taylor, G.: Hurricane Ex erience Levels of Coastal Count Po ulations-Texas to Maine.
National Hurricane Center, National Oceanic
& Atmospheric Administration, Coral Gables, FL. pp.
1-23, 55,
- 118, 119, 122 (1975).
4.
- Simpson, R.H., and Lawrence, M.B.,: Atlantic Hurricane Frequencies Along the U.S. Coastline.
NOAA Tech.
Memo NWS SR-58, National Oceanic E Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service, Southern Region, Fort Worth, Texas, 14 pp.
(1970).
5.
- Hebert, P.J.
and Taylor, G.,: Hurricanes Part; II 32 Weatherwise, 100 pp.
100-107 (1979).
6.
- Hebert, P.J.
and Taylor, G.,: Hurricanes, Part I. 32 Weatherwise, pp.
60-67 (1979).
7.
Batts, M.E., et al.: Hurricane Wind Speeds in the United States.
NBS Bui ldin Science Series 124, National Bureau of Standards, Washington, D.C., pp.
14,
-6 (1980).
- All references are available from the National Hurricane Center, National Weather Service, National Oceanic 8 Atmospheric Administration, One Gables Tower, South Dixie Highway, Coral Gables, Florida.
BRIEF RESEIE Robert F. Abbey, Jr.
Education:
Ph.D. candidate in Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University (all academic course work completed;, projected graduation, 1982)
M.S. in Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, 1972 B.S.
(Honors) in Physics, University of Oregon, 1969 Professional:
,Since
- 1972, served as director of the meteorology research program in the Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research, U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commi'ssion, Washington, D.C.
Similar position with the Atomic Energy Commission and the Energy Research and Development Administration prior to governmental reorganization.
- Chairman, American Meteorological Society's Committee on Severe Local Storms, 1976-1977
- Member, AMS Committee on Severe Local Storms, 1975-1981
- Member, AMS Scientific and Technological Activities Commission Member (Secretary),
ANSI Committee for Developing 'Standards and Guidelines for Extreme Wind and Tornado Criteria, American Nuclear Society
- Member, Committee for Wind Effects, Structural Division, ASCE
- Chairman, Symposium on Tornadoes, June 22-24, 1976, Lubbock, Texas
- Chairman, 10th Conference on Severe Local Storms, 1977 Invited lecturer, FEMA (formerly DCPA) Staff College Summer Institute on Designing for Extreme Winds, 1975-1981 NRC representative to the Federal Committee for Meteorological Services and Supporting Research
- Chairman, Federal Working Group on Radiological,
- Gaseous, and Particulate Transport Models Certified Consulting Meteorologist, American Meteorological Society Technical reviewer for several professional journals of the
&S, ANS, ASCE, Nuclear Technology, Industrial Aerodynamics, Publications:
Several publications related to the nature and effects of severe storms (tornadoes, hurricanes, lightning), atmospheric transport and diffusion of effluents, and characterization of the general circulation of the atmosphere by statistical methodology e.g.,
"Risk Probabilities Associated with Tornado Windspeeds,"
S m osium on Tornadoes:
Assessment of Knowled e and Im lications for Hau, Juce 22-26,
- 1976, Lubbock, Texas, pages 177-236.
i 0
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA NUCLEAR REGULATORY COMMISSION BEFORE THE ATOMIC SAFETY AND LICENSING BOARD In the Matter of
)
)
FLORIDA POWER AND LIGHT COMPANY
)
)
(Turkey Point Nuclear Generating
)
Unit Nos.
3 and 4)
Docket Nos. 50-250 50-251 (Proposed Amendments to Facility Operating Licenses to Permit Steam Generator Repair)
CERTIFICATE OF SERVICE I hereby certify that copies of NRC, STAFF OBJECTIONS TO PROPOSED. AMENDED CONTENT I3N 1 AND THIRD MOTION FOR
SUMMARY
DISPOSITION in the above-captioned proceeding have been served on the following by deposit in the United States mai 1, first class or, as indicated by an asterisk, through deposit in the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's internal mail system, this 27th day of April, 1981.
Marshall E. Miller, Esq.,
Chairman Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel U.S.
Nuc 1 ear Regu1 atory Commi s s ion Washington, D.C.
20555 Dr.
Emmeth A. Luebke Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Coranission-Washington, D.C.
20555 Dr. Oscar H. Paris Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C.
20555 Mr. Mark P.
Oncavage 12200 S.W.
110th Avenue Miami, Florida 33176 Harold F. Reis, Esq.
Lowenstein, Newman, Reis, Axelrad E Toll 1025 Connecticut
- Avenue, N.W.
Washington, D.C.
20036 Burt Saunders, Esq.
Assistant Dade County Attorney 1626 Dade County Courthouse Miami, Florida 33130 Norman A. Coll, Esq.
- Steel, Hector 8 Davis Southeast First National Bank Building Miami, Florida 33131 Neil Chonin, Esq.
Counsel for Intervenor Suite 1400 Ameeifirst Bldg.
One S.E. 3rd Avenue Miami, Florida 33131 *~via exPress mail Henry H. Harnage, Esq.
Peninsula Federal Bldg., 10th Floor 200 S.E. First Street Miami, Florida 33131 Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C.
20555 Atomic Safety and Licensing Appeal Board Panel U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C.
20555 Docketing and:Service Section Office of the Secretary U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Washington, D.C.
20555 even o
erg Counsel for NRC Staff
0