ML20197E191

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Caseload Forecast 5-Yr Plan (FY79-83)
ML20197E191
Person / Time
Issue date: 03/22/1977
From: Abell T, Riordan B, Triner E
NRC, NRC OFFICE OF THE CONTROLLER
To:
Shared Package
ML20197E179 List:
References
FOIA-86-172 PROC-770322, NUDOCS 8605150190
Download: ML20197E191 (23)
v • d • e


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CASELOAD FORECAST FIVE-YEAR PLAN FY1979,-83)

Prepared By:

Caseload Forecasting Panel B. Riordan, PLA ,

E. Triner, CON T. Abell, MIPC J. Leonard, NRR L. Gorden, NMSS R. Dube, NMSS E. Grther, IE S

s March 22, 1977 ,

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.g Introduction The Caseload Forecasting Panel convened in November,1976, to discuss the caseload forecast for the FY 1979 budget and the FY 1979-83 Five Year Plan. A tentative forecast was circulated December 23 to Office Directors for comment. A number of suggestions were made for additional categories of caseload to be included.

The Panel reconvened in early February,1977. Criteria were developed to evaluate items appropriate for inclusion:

base data is reasonably available or obtainable; major ievel of effort devoted to the activity involving more than one program office; level of effort is quantifiable in terms of licensing cases as opposed to generic activity.

On this basis additional fuel cycle facilities (including waste dis-posal repositories), and. radioisotopes licenses were added. To assist I&E in determining safeguards activity, the~ number of reactor sites was added. On the other hand, by agreement of the Panel and based on the above criteria, export / import licenses, information on fuel ship-ments, and amendments to reactor of fuel cycle facility licenses were not included.

The Forecasting Panel recommends the planning projections as shown in Appendix A for reactors and Appendix B for fuel cycle facilities, trans-portation reviews and radioisotopes licenses. Using these projections, the following Caseload Summary can be derived for the period 1978-83:

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SUMMARY

' TABLE (Fiscal Years)

NUCLEAR REACTORS 1/

CP's Tendered 5(10) 7(14) 6(12) 7(14) 7(14) 8(16)

CP's Issued 14(26) 5(9) 7(14) 6(12) 6(12) 7(14)

OL's Tendered 7(13) 5(9) 7(14) 4(10) 15(23) 7(15)

OL's Issued 8 8 7 11 15 13 Total Plants Licensed 77 85 92 103 118 131 Reactor. Sites 53 58 67 72 77 81 Units Under Construction 108 108 111 108 106 111 Total GWE Licensed 59.3 G7.5 75.4 87.3 102.7 116.8 FUEL CYCLE FACILITIES New Applications / 15 6 4 5 5 1 Total Licensed 40 44 58 64 66 71 RADI0 ISOTOPES 3/ ,

Total Actions 7800 7300 6500 6700 7300 8500 TRANSPORTATION REVIEWS Designs Approved 7 8 11 13 14 15 1/ As of 3/77, there are 78 research and test reactors licensed (including 10 with " possession only status"). No formal forecast is made for this category; however, their number is expected to remain fairly constant during the planning period.

2/ Includes najor modifications.

3/ There are approximately 8,600 licenses currently; this number is expected to remain fairly constant during the planning period.

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E, Bases for Reactor Planning Projections Following the methodology established last year, the forecast of new applications for reactor permits and licenses has been reconciled in two ways: first, with current FEA and ERDA projections on U. S. in-stalled nuclear capacity, and secondly,.with recent information reported to NRR by utilities. NRR is presently conducting its semi-annual survey with updated inputs expected from the utilities by mid April.

In light of the past forecasting record, and different views of the future held within the staff, an attempt was made to provide an "op-timistic" scenario using the standard scheduling assumptions plus a set of assumptions more closely allied to recent experience. Thus a range of case numbers is shown in Appendix B, with the applicable assumptions noted. It is interesting and important to note that while there is a wide fluctuation between individual years for the scenarios, by the end of the period, there is little spread between total capacity licensed.

In the reactor licensing area, the FY 1977 and 1978 applications are based on NRR survey information, plus recently announced utility delays and cancellations, while the out-years FY 1979-1983 are pegged to recent ERDA and FEA projections that track well with our own projections of on-line capacity through 1985 and seem to represent a realistic expecta-tion for the long term. While the " optimistic" case is the same as last year, which was based on FEA's 1989 forecast of 217 GWe, the pessi-mistic case is based on preliminary FEA data (1977 National Energy Outlook) which seem to indicate a range of 196-206 GWe. However, it should be noted that more than half of the applications expected in FY 1977-1978 are for plants not yet ordered. Generally, lead-time between orders to applications being tendered ranges 12-18 months.

Bases for Fuel Cycle Planning Projections-The number and types of licensing actions forecast for each year for each type of fuel cycle plant is based on a combination of expressed industry plans for new or modified facilities, past experience, or the projected rate of reactor industry growth. For example, in the uranium milling area, even though these fuel cycle facility estimates are pegged to a low growth factor, any downturn in reactors on-line could lessen demand for uranium. This, coupled with the newer solution recovery pro-cesses planned by the milling industry, would no doubt delay the new mills planned for the out-years. Likewise, a negative decision or delayed scheduling on the LMFBR program may reduce the caseload anticipated for transportation. Specific new applications (including major modifications) which are identified in Attachment B are tentative, pending written docu-mentation of a licensee's intent to file an application. _

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I There are a number of national policy questions pending which make any projections in the fuel cycle area very fluid and extremely subject to a high degree of error. The commercial enrichment situation is still vulnerable to political constraints and-thus was not included in the forecas t. Even though it is possible that commercial reprocessing will not be available prior to 1982, and pending Commission guidance on the FY 1979 budget, it is assumed that there will be a decision by 1978 ,

which will permit some form of demonstration activities related to re-l processing. Since widescale use of plutonium will not occur during the '

1979-1983 time period, and because the time required for plant design and construction is lengthy, regardless of the policy decisions, the demand for irradiated (spent) fuel storage capacity will increase. ,

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L REACTOR PLANNING PROJECTIONS A .

1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 Cp's Tendered 22(42) 6(15) 7(12) 3(6) 4(9) 5(10) 5(10) 7(14) 7(14) 8(16)

Same. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6(11) 9(18) 8(16) 8(16) 8(16) 9(18)

Cp's Issued 9(16) 8(14) 9(18) 14(28) 13(25) 3(6) 6(11) 5(10) 5(10). 7(14)

Same. . . . . . . . . . . 14(28) 14(26) 5(9) 7(14) 8(16) 8(16) 8(16)

OL's Tendered 6(10) 2(2)~ 4(6) 6(10) 7(13) 5(9) 5(7) 8(22) 15(22) 603)

Same. . . . . . . . . . . 6(10) 7(13) 5(9) 8(15) 4(10) 15(23) 7(15)

OL's Issued 11 9 9 7 7 6 3 11 16 16 Same. . . . . . . . . . . 7 8 10 11 11 15 10 GWe Added 8.4 7.7 8.4 6.5 7.1 5.6 3.3 11.9 16.8 17.8 S a rae . . . . . . . . . . . 6.5 8.0 10.8 12.4 12 14 10.4 Total Plants 45 53 62 69 76 82 85 96 I 112 128 Licensed

Same. . . . . . . . . . . 69 77 87 98 109 / 124 134 Total GWe 28 35.7 44.2 50.7 5/.8 63.4 66.7 78.6 95.4 113.2 i Same. . . . . . . . . . . 52.8 60.8 71.6 84 96 110 120.4 i; A

NSSS/B0P 6 4 4 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 Site Reviews 1/ ---- ----

2 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Tendered

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Special Projects 2 ---- 5 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 Tenderqd 4

1/ Does not assume legislation.

Top level = Pessimistic Lower level = Optimistic

. c, l APPENDIX A Notes: Top iine of each entry presents pessimistic view.

Bottom line of each entry presents optimistic view.

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Pessimistic Assumptions (1) CP's Tendered - based on latest ORR survey, but does not include plants "not firm," for FY 77 and 78. For FY 79-83, is based on ERDA's " low case" forecast for 1990-1995.

(2) CP's Issued - schedule as approved or 30 months from tendering;

- "not firm" appls. not included.

(3) 0L's Tendered - two years prior to utility FLD (unless otherwise specifically stated by utility) if utility FLD is seven years +

from construction start; otherwise 30 months prior to PLA estimate.

(4) OL's issued - utility FLD estimate or seven years from start of construction, whichever is later; one year spread between sub-sequent units.

Optimistic Assumptions (1) CP's Tendered - based on latest NRR survey, including appls. shown as "not firm" for FY 77 and 78. For FY 79-83, is based on last year's figures (FEA's 1989 forecast).

(2) CP's Issued - current schedules or 24 months from tendering for those without schedules; "not firm" applications are included.

(3) 0L's Tendered - two years prior to utility FLD, unless otherwise specifical,1y stated by utility.

(4) 0L's Issued - utility FLD date (as currently stated in Yellow Book) or seven years from CP decision date.

(5) NSSS/B0P, Site Reviews, Special Projects - Projections are based on the average number received in prior years and are not related to any specific anticipated application.

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APPENDIX A-1 CP'S TENDERED FY 1974 - 22 (42) FY 1977 - 3 (G_)

Douglas Point 1 & 2 7/73C Erie 1 & 2 ll/76C Fulton 1 & 2 7/73C Sundesert 1 & 2 2/77C WPPSS 1 & 4 7/73C . . .

s Summit 1 & 2** 7//7 Clinton 1 & 2 8/73C Allens Creek 1 & 2 8/73C FY 1978 - 6 (11)

Quaincassee 1 & 2 10/73C Atlantic 1 & 2 1/74C Carroll 1 & 2 10/77 WPPSS 3 & 5 3/74C San Joaquin 1 - 4** 12/77 Cherokee 1 - 3 3/74C New York 1** 5/78 Perkins l - 3 3/74C

  • Carolina 1 & 2 6/78 Fermi 3 4/74C Fulton 1 & 2** 6/78 Callaway 1 & 2 4/74C

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Tyrone 4/74C FY 1979 - 2 (3)

Wolf Creek 4/74C Montague 1 & 2 5/74C Stanislaus 1 & 2 10/78 Davis-Besse 2 & 3 5/74C Central Iowa 6/79 South Texas 1 & 2 5/74C Pebble Springs 1 & 2 5/74C FY 1980 Koshkonong 1 & 2 5/74C Jamesport 1 & 2 6/74C Rancho Seco 2 1/80 Blue Hills 1 & 2 6/74C FY 1975 - 6 (15)

Hartsville 1 - 4 7/74C Palo Verde 1 - 3 7/74C Skagit 1 & 2 8/74C Barton 1 - 4 8/74C North Coast N.S. 9/74C Clinch River 10/74C l l

FY 1976 - 7 (12) l Marble Hill 1 & 2 7/75C Greene County 7/75C Ft. Calhoun 2 8/75C Black Fox 1 & 2 8/75C Phipps Bend 1 & 2 10/75C Yellow Creek 1 & 2 6/76C New England 1 & 2 8/76C

  • NRR has classified these as "not firm." They are not counted in the totals for the pessimistic" count.
    • Not yet ordered, r

APPENDIX A-2 CP's ISSUED FY 1974 - 9'(16) FY 1977 - 14 (28)

Forked River 7/73C Wolf Creek 1 1/77 LaSalle 1 & 2 9/73C St. Lucie 2 3/77 San Onofre 2 & 3 10/73C -- Sterling 3/77 Susquehanna 1 & 2 ll/73C Perry 1 & 2 3/77 Bailly 5/74C Jamesport 1 & 2 6/77 Beaver Valley 2 5/74C Marble Hill 1 & 2 7/77 Limerick 1 & 2 6/74C Hartsville 1 - 4 7/77 Nine Mile Pt. 2 6/74C. Cherokee 1 - 3 7/77 Vogtle 4 6/74C WPPSS 4 7/77 WPPSS 3 & 5 7/77 FY 1975 - 8 (14) Koshkonong 1 & 2 8/77

    • Davis Besse 2 & 3 8/77 North Anna 3 & 4 7/64C ** Pilgrim 2 FY77 Millstone 3 8/74C ** River Bend 1 & 2 FY77 Grand Gulf 1 & 2 9/74C Hope Creek 1 & 2 ll/74C FY 1978 - 14 (26) 4 Waterford 3 ll/74C Comanche Peak 1 & 2 12/74C Perkins 1 - 3 10/77 Surry 3 & 4 12/74C Black Fox 1 & 2 10/77 Bellefonte 1 & 2 12/74C Fort Calhoun 2 10/77 Tyrone 10/77 FY 1976 - 9 (18) Harris 1 - 4 10/77 Phipps Bend 1 & 2 10/77 Catawba 1 & 2 8/75C Pebble Springs 1 & 2 11/77 South Texas 1 & 2 12/75C Atlantic 1 & 2 2/78 WPPSS 1 12/75C Skagit 1 & 2 3/78 Byron 1 & 2 12/75C Clinch River 7/78 Braidwood 1 & 2 12/75C New England 1 & 2 9/78 Clinton 1 & 2 2/76C ** Greenwood 1 & 2 FY78 Callaway 1 & 2 4/76C Greene County FY78 Palo Verde 1 - 3' 5/76C Seabrook 1 & 2 7/76C Currently not scheduled, but it is expected to be issued during fiscal year.

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APPENDIX A-3

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CP's ISSUED FY 1979 - 5 (9)

Erie 1 & 2 12/78 ..

    • Allens Creek 1 FY79 (10/787)
    • Douglas Point 1 & 2 FY79 (1/797)

Sundesert 1 & 2 1/79 Montague 1 & 2 7/79 FY 1980 - 7 (14)

Summit 1 & 2 (Rev.) 10/79 Carroll 1 & 2 10/79 Central Iowa 11/79 San Joaquin 1 - 4 2/80 New York 1 5/80 '

  • Fulton 1 &2 (Rev.) 6/80
  • arolina.1 & 2 6/60 l
  • Since NRR has classified these appls. as "not firm" CP decision dates are tentative.
    • Currentlynotscheduled,butitisexpectedtobeissueddur[ng fiscal year.

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, APPENDIX A-4 OL's TENDERED FY 1974 - 6 '(10) FY 1979 - 5 (9)

Diablo Canyon 1 & 2 7/73C North Anna 3 & 4 10/78 Farley 1 & 2 7/73C '"

Forked River 1/79 l Sequoyah 1 & 2 12/73C Clinton 1 & 2 6/79 Three Mile Island 2 2/74C Seabrook 1 & 2 8/79 i Arkansas 2 3/74C WPPSS 1 & 4 3/79 i McGuire 1 & 2 4/64C FY 1980 - 8 (15)

FY 1975 - 2 (2)

Hartsville 1 - 4 11/79 Fermi 2 10/74C Callaway 1 5/80 i Zimer 1 5/75C Beaver Valley 2 6/80 Palo Verde 1 - 3 12/79 FY 1976 - 4 (5) Perry 1 & 2 12/79 Nine Mile Pt. 2 3/80

! Hatch 2 7/75C Millstone 3 5/80

] Shoreham 9/75C River Bend 1 & 2 9/80 Watts Bar 1 & 2 6/76C LaSalle 1 1: 2 9/76C FY 1.981 - 4 (10) l FY 1977 - 6 (10) Limerick 1 & 2 10/80 St. Lucie 2 12/80 Sumner 1 12/76C Cherokee 1 - 3 5/81 San Onofre 2 & 3 12/76C Harris 1 - 4 6/81 WPPSS 2 12/76C Comanche Peak l & 2 6/77* FY 1982 - 15 (23)

'i Midland 1 & 2 6/77*

Grand Gulf 1 & 2 7/77* Bailly 11/81

! Hope Creek 1 & 2 11/81 )

j FY 1978 - 7 (13) Surry 3 & 4 12/81 i Wolf Creek 12/81 i Bellefonte 1 & 2 12/77 WPPSS 3 & 5 12/81 j Susquehanna 1 & 2

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1/78* Clinch River 3/82 South Texas 1 & 2 1/78* Marble Hill 1 & 2 4/82 i Waterford 3 3/78* Pilgrim 2 4/82 j Byron 1 & 2 6/78 Sterling i 4/82 Braidwood 1 & 2 6/78 Black Fox 1 & 2 5/82 i

Catawba 1 & 2 6/78 Jamesport 1 & 2 6/82 i Phipps Bend 1 & 2 7/82 Skagit 1 & 2 8/82 Ft. Calhoun 2 8/82

{ Greene County 8/82 1 I

  • Utility estimate.
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I APPENDIX A-5

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OL's ISSUED -

FY 1974 - 11 (8.436) FY 1978 - 8 (7,991)

! Peach Bottom 2 (1065) 8/73C DiabloCanyon2(1106) 12/77 Prairie Island 1 (530) 8/73C Sequoyah 1 (1148) 11/77

_ Oconee 2 (871) 10/73C McGuire 1 (1180) 12/77 Zion 2 (1050) ll/73C . . . ' Three Mile Island 2 (906) 1/78 Fort St. Vrain (330) 12/73C North Anna 2 (898) 7/78 Kewaunee (541) 12/73C Zimmer 1 (810) 4/78 Cooper (778) 2/74C Hatch 2(795) 7/78 Duane Arnold (535) 2/74C Sequoyah2(1148). 7/78 Three Mile Island 1 (819) 4/74C Arkansas 1 (850)

~ 5/74C FY 1979 - 10 (10,653)

Browns Ferry 2 (1067) 6/74C Salem 2 (1115) 5/79 FY 1975 - 9 (7,712) Shoreham(819) 6/79 I

McGuire 2 (1180) 12/78

', PeachBottom3(1065) 7/74C Watts Bar 1 (1177) 12/78 Oconee 3 (871) 7/74C Farley 2 (829) 12/78 Calvert Cliffs 1 (845) 8/74C LaSalle 1 (1078) 2/79 Rancho Seco 1 (913) 8/74C Grand Gulf 1 (l'250) 3/79

' Hatch 1 (786) 8/74C Comanche Peak 1 (1150) 5/79 Fitzpatrick(821) 10/74C I:aSalle 2 (1078) 9/79 Cook 1 (1060) 10/74C Watts Bar 2 (1177) 9/79 Prairie Island 2 (530) 10/74C Brunswick 2 (821) 12/74C FY 1980 - 11 (12,355)

FY 1976 - 9 (8,406) Sumner1(900) 12/79 Bellefonte 1 (1213) 12/79 Millstone 2 (828) 8/75C Fermi 2(1093) 1/80 Trojan (1130) 11/75C San Onofre 2 (1140) 2/80 IndianPoint3(965) 12/75C WPPSS2(1103) 3/80 Beaver Valley 1 (852) 1/76C Susquehanna 1 5/80 St. Lucie 1 (810) 3/76C Byron 1(1120)(1050) 5/80 l Browns Ferry 3 (1065) 7/76C South Texas 1 (1250) 5/80 Salen 1 (1909) 8/76C Catawba 1 (1153) 8/80 Calvert Cliffs 2 8/76C Gellefonte 2 (1213) 9/80 Brunswick 1 (821)(845) 9/76C 1

i FY 1977 - 7 (6,514)

Crystal River 3 (825) 11/76C Farley 1 (829) 2/77 Davis-Besse 1 (906) 3/77 North Anna 1 (898) 6/77 Diablo Canyon 1 (1084) 5/77 Cook 2(1060) 9/77 Arkansas 2 (912) 9/77 -

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. . _ . I APPENDIX A-6 FY 1981 (11,999)

North Anna 3 (907) 10/80 Midland 2 (808) 11/80 Waterford 3 (1113) 11/80 . . .

WPPSS 1 (1218) 3/81 San Onofre 3 (1140) 5/81 Comanche Peak 2 (1150) 6/81 Braidwood 1 (1120) 5/81 Callaway 1 (1120) 6/81 Forked River (1070) 8/81 Catawba 2'(1153) 8/81 Seabrook 1 (1200) 8/81 FY 1982 - 15 (15.015)

Clinton 1 (933) 10/81 SouthTexas2(1250 11/81 Hartsville A-1 (1233) 11/81 Midland 1 (458) 11/81 Susquehanna 2 (1050) 11/81 -

Palo Verde 1 (1238) 12/81 Perry 1 (1205) 12/81 NineMilePoint2(1080) 3/82 Hartsville B-1 (1233) 4/82 North Anna 4 (907 6/82 Byron 2 (1120) 5/82 Braidwood2(1120) 5/82 Millstone 3 (1156) 6/82 River Bend 1 (934) 9/82 WPPSS4(1218) 9/82 FY 1983 - 9 (9,557)

Limerick 1 (1065) 10/82 HartsvilleA-2(1233) 11/82 Beaver Valley 2 (852) 12/82 St. Lucie 2 (810) 12/82 Grand Gulf 2 (1250) 3/83 Hartsville B-2 (1233) 5/83 Cherokee 1 (1280) 5/83 Harris 1 (900) 6/83 River Bend 2 (934) 9/83 l

., . APPENDIX A-7

.. NSSS/B0P TENDERED FY 1975 - 4 GASSAR -

8/74C GESSAR 251 8/74C C. F. Braun 10/74C

- GESSAR Interface 2/75C FY 1976 - 4 -

SWESSAR/RESAR - 3S (80P) 10/75C BSAR - 205 (NSSS) 10/75C FLVOR (B0P) ll/75C SWESSAR/BSAR - 205 (80P) 12/75C FY 1977 - 4 RESAR-414(PDA) 10/76C GIBBSAR(W)(B0P) 10/76C MARAD (REF) 3/77 GIBBSAR(CE/B&W) 6/77 1

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. l APPENDIX A-8 SITE REVIEWS FY 1974 - 4

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Isolote 10/73 Perryman 10/73 Vidal 2/74 San Joaquin 2/74 FY 1975 - 5 ' -

Vidal 10/74 Yellow Creek 1/75 Greene County 4/75 Sundesert. 4/75 South Date 6/75 FY 1976 - 2

. Wood 8/75C Haven 8/75C FY 1977 - 2 Stanislaus Site 11/76 .

  • Indiana Site 1 6/77 Perryman Site 12/76 ,

Sears Site 6/77 FY 1978 - 1

  • Desoto Site 10/77
  • fiebraska Site 10/77
  • ffew Mexico Site 1/78
  • Boardman Site .

1/78 Bainbridge Site 6/78

  • Carolina Site 6/78
  • Gulf Site 6/78 O
  • flot firm.

J APPENDIX A-9

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SP's TENDERED

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I FY 1974 - 2 1 NIMITZ 7/73/C . . . '-

LOFT 3/74C FY 1975 - 0 None FY 1976 - 5 t

Gas Turbine HTGR 7/75C LWBR 7/75C D-2-W 8/75C S-7-G 10/75C FFTF-FSAR 4/76C FY_,1977 - 2 S-8-G 1/77 MARAD PSAR 9/77 FY 1978 - 3 i S-8-G Ship 10/77 Advanced Submarine Core 1/78 j SAREF 8/78 j

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FUEL CYCLE PLANNING PROJECTIONS *

(Fiscal Years) 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 New Applications 0 1 0 3 2 '2 1 1 1

Total Licensed M 9 9 10 11 11 14- 16 19 20 Renewals 1 6 0 0 0

, 1 1 0 0 Solution Recovery (Milling) ~

Hew Applications 0 0 0 5 3 0 2 0 0 Total Licensed E O O 0 0 0 5 8 8 10 Renewals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 002 Fabrication Plants New Applications 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Licensed 24 23 22 20 23 20 20 20 20 Renewals 5 5 0 1 2 0 5 I8 4 UFg Conversion /

New Applications 2l 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Total Licensed -

2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 Renewals 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 g

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  • Data not available for 1974.

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FUEL CYCLE PLANNING PROJECTIONS 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 ,

Fuel Reprocessing Plants ,

New Applications 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 CP's Issued 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 Total Licensed 2/ 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 Renewals 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 M0X Fabrication Plants New Applications 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 .1 0 Total Licensed 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 2 Renewals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 .O O

Spent Fuel Storage New Applications. 1 0 0 4 1 0 1 0 0 4" Total Licensed 0 0 0 4 6 7 8 8 8  ?'

Ren~ewals 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 4  !!

x D3 HLW Repositories t

  • New Applications 0 0 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 Total Licensed 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ime

2 FUEL CYCLE PLANNING PROJECTIONS 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 LLW Burial Grounds .

New Applications 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Total Licensed I ,

1 1 1 1 1 6 6 6 7 Transportation Reviews Major Packages (Casks, etc.)

New Applications 6 1 1 1 2 4 3 2 2 Designs Approved y 5 6 7 7 8 11 13 14 15 Minor Packages - - -

50 30 30 30 30 30 Radioisotopes Licensing New Applications 495 713 ** 700 700 700 700 700 700 Renewals 690 908 **

  • 2600 2000 1100 1200 1800 3000 Amendments 4495 4315 ** 4500 4600 4700 4800 4800 4800 Total - Above Categories 5680 5936 7800 7300 6500 6700 7300 Terminations ** 8500 202 246 100 100 100 100 100 100 1/ Assumes 2 years from application to licensing.

~ 2] Assumes 1 new application (Unidentified) tendered in FY 1977; 2 years to licensing.

3] Does not include GE-Morris but does include NFS, currently shut down.

4/ Assumes return to Federal control, by FY 1980, 5 sites currently in Agreement States; >

for' new applications, assumes 2 years for application submittal to licensing. 4 5] Assumes approval same FY as submittal and approval outstanding for 5 years before renewal required.

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    • Data not yet available.

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. _ I APPENDIX B-l o

FUEL CYCLE FACILITIES NEW APPLICATIONS / MAJOR MODIFICATIONS UraniumMillsU

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FY 1975 '

None FY 1976 Wyoming Mineral FY 1978 (3)

TVA United Nuclear Kerr-McGee FY1979(2)

Ranchers Exploration Cotter Corp.

FY 1980 (2) -

Getty 011 Pioneer Corp.

FY 1981 (1)

Pioneer Corp.

FY 1982 (1)

Cleveland Cliffs FY 1983 (1)

Cotter Corp.,

Solution Recovery (Milling)

FY 1978 (5)

Cleveland Cliffs Iron Co.

Kerr-McGee Wyoming Minerals Exxon Co. (USA)

Hydro Jet Services Inc.

FY 1979 (3)

Nuclear Dynamics TVA - Federal America -

Cotter Corp.

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, , APPENDIX B-2 FY 1981 (2)

' #1 Undetermined

  1. 2 Undetermined 00, Fabrication Plants -s, FY 1975 Westinghouse (Anderson)

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United Nuclear (Montville)

U.,S. Nuclear FY 1976 Babcock & Wilcox (Parks Township)

FY 1977-1983 None UF; Conversion Plants FY 1975 1

Barnwell -

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1 Unidentified Fuel Reprocessing Plants FY 1975 (1)

Barnwell FY 1976 (1)

Exxon ,

FY 1977 None a

FY1978(1)

Unidentified

, FY 1979-83 None 6

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APPENDIX B-3 3-r4 Mixed 0xide Fabrication Plants FY 1975 -

Barnwell FY 1982 1 Unidentified Spent Fuel Storage FY 1975 GE-Morris FY 1978 GE-Morris

  • Stone & Webster (Std. Plant)

S & W User #1

. New Storage Depot (Unidentified)

, FY 1979 S & W User #3 FY 1981

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S & W User #3

_HLW Repositories FY 1978 (2) i Fed. #1 and #2 FY 1980 Fed. #3 and #4

  • FY 1982 Fed. #5 and #6 Transportation Reviews (Major Packages) '

FY1975(6)

Atomics Intern'l Pu Pkg.

AEC Irradiated Fuel Battelle Cask EX 16-10 ATCOR Battelle Memorial ,

Eldorado Nuclear Ltd.

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  • APPENDIX B-4 i

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3 FY 1976 (1)

Chem-Nuclear l FY1977(1) ....s '

j Exxon Nuclear Spent Fuel Cask 4

FY1979(2) i LWR Spent Fuel Cask i Integrated container vehicle for shipment plutonium i

i FY 1980 (4)

LMFBR Spent Fuel Cask i LWR M0X Spent Fuel Cask Plutonium package for air shipment HLW Cask FY1981(3)

LWR Spent Fuel Cask

' Large Cask for Reactor Components Large Cask for Shipment Byproduct Material i

FY 1982 (2) i HTGR Spent Fuel Cask Pu Package for Air Shipment 4

l FY 1983 (2)

{ LMFBR Spent Fuel Cask Unirradiated M0X Fuel Package for Air Transport 1

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