ML19309E080

Evacuation Time Estimates for Gilliam & Morrow Counties, or & Klickitat County,Wa.

ML19309E080
Person / Time
Site:	05000514, 05000515
Issue date:	03/31/1980
From:	PORTLAND GENERAL ELECTRIC CO.
To:
Shared Package
ML19309E081	List: ML19309E080
References
NUDOCS 8004180364
Download: ML19309E080 (21)

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PEBBLE SPRINGS NUCLEAR PLANT EVACUATION TI!!E ESTI! FATES FOR GILLIAM AND MORROW COUNTIES, OREGON AND KLICKITAT COUNTY, WASHINGTON Portland General Electric Company

!! arch 1980

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CONTENTS Section Title Page

1.0 INTRODUCTION

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, 2. 0 BACKGROUND . ... .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2.0-1 3.0 FETHODOLOGY . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3.0 4.0 TILE ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION OF iiL'  !

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GENERAL PUBLIC . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4.0-1 4.1 EVACUATION FROM 0 TO 2 MILES . . . . . . . . . . 4.0-2

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4.2 EVACUATION FR0!! O TO 5 MILES . . . . . . . . . . 4.0-2 4.3 EVACUATION FROM ' TO 10 MILES . . . . . . . . . 4.0-2 4.4 GENERAL SUltfARY OF EVACUATION SCENARIOS . .. . 4.0-2 5.0 TIME ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION OF SPECIAL FACILITIES . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5.0-1 6.0 TIlfE ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION CONFIRMATION . . . 6.0-1 7.0 TIME ESTIlfATES FOR EVACUATION NOTIFICATION . . . 7.0-1 8.0 COM!!ENTS FROM PRINCIPAL LOCAL OFFICIALS . . . . 8.0-1

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1.0 INTRODUCTION

This report has been prrpared in response to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's request for evacuation time estimates contained in the December 26, 1979 letter from the Director of the Emergency Preparedness Task Group. Contained in this report are the various requested evacua-tion time estimates for the area associated with a 10-mile radius plume exposure pathway emergency planning zone (EPZ) for the Pebble Springs Nuclear Plant. The evacuation time estimates include the evacuation of the general public during normal and adverse weather conditions, the evacuation of special facilities during normal and adverse weather con-ditio.,s, the time required for confirmation of evacuation, and the time requited to notify the public to evacuate. These preliminary evacuation time estimates are based upon conservative assumptions and, as such, are believed to conservatively reflect the time frames necessary to implement the evacuation protective response option. Prior to Plant operation, a detailed evacuation plan will be prepared in conjunction with the Radio-logical Emergency Response Plans for Gilliam and Morrow Counties, Oregon, and Klickitat County, Washington. It is expected that the finalized evacuation time estimates that will be presented in the detailed evacuation plan will result in a reduction of the present time estimates.

In preparing this report, the Sheriff's offices for Gilliam, Morrow and Klickitat Counties were contacted. The Sheriffs have had an opportunity to review and discuss the assumptions, methodology, and results of this report. Their comments are noted in Section 8.0. No areac of disagreement have been identified as a result of their review.  ;

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2.0 BACKGROUND

The Pebble Springs Nuclear Plant is located in Gilliam County, Oregon,

,n a relatively flat plain about 3 miles southeast of the Columbia River.

The Plant will be comprised of two 1260 MWe units scheduled for commer-cial operation in the 1990s. This report describes evacuation time estimates for the 10-mile area covered by the plume exposure pathway EPZ for Gilliam and Morrow Counties, Oregon, and Klickitat County, Washington. This area is shown in Figure 1.

Projected year 2000 population distributions within the 10-mile area for Gilliam and Morrow Counties, Oregon, and Klickitat County, W'ashington, are utilized in this report. Year 2000 projections are used as both generating units are planned to be fully operational by this date.

i Population growth over the next 20 yr within the 10-mile area will be largely confined to the corporate limits of Arlington, Oregon, located

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about 3 miles northwest of the Plant site. Arlington has a present population of about 650. It is conservatively assumed for purposes of [

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this analysis that Arlington will have a population of no more than 4000 persons by the year 2000. This population level is the maximum provided for in the Comprehensive Plan for the City of Arlington and, although not expected to be realized, serves to provide a sufficiently t conservative bounding estimate for determination of maximum evacuation times. Population in other surrounding areas within the 10-mile area of the site is expected to hold relatively constant as agriculture is, and is likely to remain, the principal land use.

The population is broken down by 22.5* sectors as shown in Table 1. For the total population of 4219 approximately 4000 are estimated to reside l in Arlington, Oregon. Note that only a few people reside within 2 miles i of the Plant, and no people reside within 1 mile.

The average vehicle occupancy was assumed to be three persons per car for areas inside city limits and two persons per car for rural areas.

These factors were used to obtain the vehicle distribution information

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as shown in Table 2. The total number of vehicles to be evacuated from within the 10-mile area is estimated to be 1439.

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Using the standard 16 emergency planning 22.5* radial sectors as a base, 10 primary evacuation sectors are defined for this analysis as shown in Table 3. Figure 1 illustrates the area encompassed by the 10 primary evacuation sectors. For the 0- to 2-mile area, two 180' sectors are used for evacuation oriented perpendicular to the prevailing winds in the area. There are four 90' sectors within the 2- to 5-mile area as well as four 90' sectors in the 5- to 10-mile area. Sectors III, V, VII and IX are oriented to encompass the prevailing wind direction in the area.

Seven evacuation scenarios have been developed b;4ed on the 10 primary evacuation sectors. A summary of the evacuation scenarios is listed in Table 4. The scenarios represent various combinations of the primary evacuation sectors east and west along the prevailing wind direction in the area.

The capacity figure utilized in this analysis for county roads was selected to be conservatively low so as to provide allowances for stop signs and local road conditions. Capacity factors for State and Federal highways used to evacuate Arlington reflect the nearly ideal road conditions that exist; ie, straight, 12-f t lanes with no stop signs.

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3.0 METHODOLOGY

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The evacuation time estimates presented in this report were developed by Portland General Electric Company. During the preparation of this report, critical points within the 10 mile evacuation area were inspec-

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ted. The evacuation speeds used in these analyses were selected based upon a previous evacuation study performed for the Trojan Nuclear Plant as well as on discussions with local officials. The evacuation speed for normal conditions was assumed to be 55 mph on all State and Federal highways, 35 mph for county roads, and 25 mph for city streets. For adverse weather conditions, the speed was lowered to 25 mph for State [

highways in the State of Washington and I-80N in Oregon, and 15 mph for county, city and State routes running south from the Plant site in Oregon. See Table 5 for evacuation speeds.

The primary evacuation route in Oregon is I-80N to the west and to the  ;

I east. The remainder of the traffic in Oregon will utilize one of five

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other routes which branch from the Plant site area to the south and west. For Washington, the primary evacuation route is Washington State ,

Highway 14 to the west and east. Two additional evacuation routes to the north are also utilized. These routes are summarized in Table 5 and shown in Figure 1. [

1 The capacity figures utilized in this analysis are 600 vehicles per hour  :

in the direction of evacuating travel for county roads and 1800 vehi-cles per hour in the direction of evacuating traffic for State highways.

For I-80N travel, a capacity figure of 2000 vehicles per hour per lane  ;

is utilized. For a thorough discussion of highway capacity, refer to l the Highway Capacity Manual (Special Report 87, Highway Research Board,  !

1965).

For all highways and roads employed in this evacuation study, only the outbound lane for two-lane facilities is assumed to have evacuating vehicles. The inbound, or opposing lane, is to be kept open to handle some traffic, such as emergency vehicles, and to allow for passing

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maneuvers that may be needed due to breakdown of vehicles. In Oregon, "

it is assumed that two outbound lanes would be available for evacuating -

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i 4.0 TIME ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION OF THE GENERAL PUBLIC  ;

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. This section details evacuation routes and time estimates for the vari-  ;

ous evacuation scenarios. The evacuation time estimates represent the

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time required to evacuate a particular sector af ter the public has been notified that an evacuation is required. Notification of the general public in the evacuation sectors of Gilliam and Morrow Counties, Oregon, I t

and Klickitat County, Washington, is discussed in Section 7.0. Evacuation (

time estimates are presented in this section for evacuations during both i

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normal and adverse weather conditions. The evacuation times represent i

the time until the last evacuee in a particular evacuation scenario is at least 11 miles from the Pebble Springs Nuclear Plant. [

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Table 6 summarizes the evacuation data and the estimated evacuation times  ;

for the seven evacuation scenarios. The number of vehicles assigned to i each evacuation route is listed, along with the associated service and travel times. The service time is the period of time it would take for  ;

all vehicles to start their evacuation, if everyone tried to start simul-  ;

taneously. The service time, expressed in minutes, is a measure of the demand placed on the evacuation route, divided by the capacity of the [

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route in question. In this study, service time applies only to the towns .

of Arlington, North Roosevelt and West Roosevelt where traffic volume may

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momentarily exceed local road capacities. In rural areas, service time

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4 includes an additional 15 min to allow farmers and ranchers to access their vehicles. The total time represents the maximum time required.for the last evacuee and is the sum of the service and travel times. Table 7 f summarizes the critical evacuation times for each scenario.

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1 For purposes of this study, it is assumed that recreational and commer-cial users on the Columbia River within the 10-mile EPZ can be evacuated

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in a timeframe comparable with the maximum times indicated in Table 7.

This assumption is based on the relatively small number of users on this stretch of river at any one time and their relative capability to i evacuate the area as required.

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4.1 EVACUATION FROM 0 TO 2 MILES ,

only five vehicles must be evacuated from the 0- to 2-mile sectors. All five are within Sector I and are assumed to proceed north on Route H through Arlington onto I-80N. The maximum evacuation time under normal and adverse conditions is 31 and 48 min, respectively. This is repre-sented as Scenario I in Table 6. 1

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4.2 EVACUATION FROM 0 TO 5 MILES The evacuation of the 0- to 5-mile sectors is represented as Scenarios 2 and 3 in Table 6. The maximum evacuation time under normal and adverse conditions is approximately 61 min and 79 min south along Route H onto Route A, westerly on I-80N for Scenario 2 in Oregon. This represents the evacuation of the 1340 cars from the community of Arlington, which is about 3 miles from the Plant. The communities of West Roosevelt and North Roosevelt are evacuated west on Route C.

4.3 EVACUATION FROM 0 TO 10 MILES .

r The evacuation of the 0- to 10-mile sectors is represented as 4, 5, 6 and 7 in Table 6. The maximum evacuation time fo Scenario 4 is iden-tical to Scenario 2 eince increasing the evacuation distance from 5 to 10 miles includes only 12 additional cars. Note that no population exists out to 5 miles in Sectors II, IV and V. Therefore, Scenarios 5, 6 and 7 represent the evacuation of 28, 13 and 31 cars, respectively, which are greater than 5 miles from the Plant.

4.4 GENERAL

SUMMARY

OF EVACUATION SCENARIOS l

A summary of the evacuation scenarios as described in Sections 4.1 through 4.3 is presented in Table 7. For each evacuation scenario, the ,

critical evacuation route is indicated along with the estimated maximum

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evacuation time for both normal and adverse weather conditions.

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5.0 TIME ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION OF SPECIAL FACILITIES There exist no special facilities requiring evacuation within 10 miles of the Pebble Springs Nuclear Plant site.

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I 6.0 TIME ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION CONFIRMATION In order to determine the completeness or effectiveness of an evacua-tion, it is considered necessary to execute a confirmation of evacuation

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operation. This confirmation operation will be executed in conjunction .

with the law enforcement security patrolling of evacuated areas. It is

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estimated that a confirmation time of about I hr would be required for

evacuation confirmation for each primary evacuation sector.

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This operation will be discussed in detail in the Radiological Emergency Response Plans for Gilliam, !!orrow and Klickitat Counties. Planning for the confirmation of evacuation operation will include consideration of

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emergency personnel operations in radiation areas, special instruction to the public (ie, displaying white handkerchiefs or cloths) and search

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and rescue provisions for reported missing persons.

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7.0 TIME ESTIMATES FOR EVACUATION NOTIFICATION A notification system capable of notifying the general public in the

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plume exposure pathway EPZ in a timely manner consistent with the NRC/ FEMA requirements will be provided. Details of the notification system will be .l presented in the Radiological Emergency Response Plans for Gilliam, Morrow and Klickitat Counties. -

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8.0 COMMENTS FROM PRINCIPAL IDCAL OFFICIALS The principal local officials responsible for carrying out evacuations within 10 miles of the Pebble Springs plant site include the following:

Gilliam County: Volney Thomas, Sheriff County Courthouse Condon, OR 97823 Morrow County: L. D. Fetsch, Sheriff County Courthouse Heppner, OR 97836 Klickitat County: Rich Williams, Sheriff County Courthouse Goldendale, WA 98620 This document has been submitted for their review and their comments have been incorporated.

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TABLE I POPULATION DISTRIBUTION 22.5" Direction Sector 0 to 2 !!iles 2 to 5 tiiles 0 to 5 tiiles 5 to 10 lilles 0 to 10 tiiles N 1 0 0 0 6 6 NNE 2 0 0 0 3 3 NE 3 0 0 0 9 9 ENE 4 0 0 0 6 6 E 5 0 0 0 15 15 ESE 6 0 0 0 21 21 SE' 7 0 0 0 18 18 SSE 8 0 0 0 9 9 S 9 0 0 0 3 3 SSW 10 0 18 18 9 27 SW 11 0 0 0 3 3 WSW 12 0 0 0 3 3 W 13 9 3 12 15 27 WNW 14 0 4000 4000 3 4003 NW 15 0 60 60 0 60 NNW 16 0 0 0 6 6 9 4081 4090 129 4219

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TABLE 2 VEllICULAR DISTRIBUTION 22.5*

Direction Sector 0 to 21111es 2 to 5 Miles 0 to 5 Miles 5 to 10 Miles O to 10 !!iles N 1 O O O 3 3 NNE 2 0 0 0 2 2 NE 3 0 0 0 5 5 ENE 4 0 0 0 3 3 E 5 0 0 0 8 8 ESE 6 0 0 0 11 11 SE 7 0 0 0 9 9 SSE 8 0 0 0 5 5

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0 0 2 2 SSW 10 0 9 9 5 14 SW 11 0 0 0 2 2 WSW 12 0 0 0 2 2 W 13 5 , 2 7 8 15 WNW 14 0 1333 1333 2 1335 NW 15 0 20 20 0 20 NNW 16 0 0 0 3 3 5 1364 1369 70 1439 JLT/4jed66.3B2

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TABLE 3

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ESTIMATED VEHICLES PER EVACUATION SECTOR i

Evacuation 22.5 Radial Radial Mileage i Sectors Number Range Vehicles I 1-7, 16 0-2 5

! II 8-15 0-2 0 III 12-15 2-5 1335 IV 1-3, 16 2-5 0 V 4-7 2-5 0 VI 8-11 2-5 9 VII 12-15 5-10 12

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VIII 1-3, 16 5-10 13 [

IX 4-7 5-10 31 X 8-11 5-10 14 1439

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EVACUATION SCENARIOS AND SECTORS

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1 Evacuation

• Scenario Sectors i 1 I f

i 2 I, III i 3 I, VI 4 I, III, VII

5 I, VI, X 6 II, IV, VIII 7 II, V, IX ,

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TABLE 5 EVACUATION ROUTES Evacuation Average Speed Route Description Normal Adverse A Interstate 80N West 55 25 B Interstate 80N East 55 25 C Washington State Highway 14 West 55 25 D Washington State Highway 14 East 55 25 E Oregon State Route 74 55 15 F Fourmile Canyon Road 35 15

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C Eightmile Canyon Road 35 15 H Oregon State Route 19 South 55 15 H Oregon State Route 19 (Arlington City Limits) 25 15

, I Cedar Springs Road (Alkali Canyon) (529) 35 15

, J Old Lady Canyon Road (9320) 35 15 K East Road (9415) 35 15

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i- TABLE 6 0-2, -5, MILE EVACUATIONS Service Travel Time Total Time Evacuation Evacuation Time Travel Distance (Min) (Min)

' Scenario Sectors RoutesII} Vehicles (Min) to 11 Miles Normal Adverse Ermal Adverse 1 I H/A 5 15 13 16 33 31 48 2 I, III H/A 1340 45 13 16 33 61 79 C 20 15 9 10 22 25 37 1360 3 I, VI H/A 5 15 13 16 33 31 48 H South 9 15 10 11 40 26 55 14 4 I, III, VII H/A 1340 45 13 16 33 61 79 C 30 15 9 10 22 25 37 J 2 15 10- 17 40 32 55 1372 5 I,-VI, X G 5 15 8 14 32 29 47 H/A 5 15 13 16 33 31 48 H South 16 15 10 , 11 40 26 55 I 2 15 6 10 24 25 39 28 6 II, IV, VIII B 5 15 6 7 15 22 30 K 8 15 9 15 36 30 51 13 7 II, V, IX E 22 15 10 11 40 26 55 F 9 15 6 10 24 25 39 71

[1] Assume 600 vph capacity or 6 see service time per vehicle for evacuation routes F, G, I, J. ,

Assume 1800 vph capacity or 2 see service time per vehicle for evacuation routes C, D, E H.

Assume 2000 vph capacity or 2 see service time per vehicle for evacuation routes A, B.

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TABLE 7 CRITICAL EVACUATION TIMES BY SCENARI0 III t

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Evacuation Time I ,

Evacuation Critical (Min)

Scenario Route Normal Adverse

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1 H/A 31 48 2 H/A 61 79 3 H 26 55. ,

t 4 H/A 61 79

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5 H 26 55 6 K 30 51 7 E 26 55

[1] This data is not presented in Figure 1 for reasons of clarity. .

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[2] Does not include evacuation notification i time.

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