ML103620049

2010/12/18-Exhibit 50-The Case for Replacing Davis Besse with Efficiency Improvements and Renewable Energy Sources

ML103620049
Person / Time
Site:	Davis Besse
Issue date:	12/18/2010
From:	Compaan A Univ of Toledo
To:	Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
SECY RAS
Shared Package
ML103620048	List: ML103620049 ML103620050 ML103620051 ML103620052 ML103620053 ML103620054 ML103620056 ML103620057
References
License Renewal 2, RAS 19320, 50-346-LR
Download: ML103620049 (8)

Text

The following eight pages reproduce the slides that were used in the presentation by A. Compaan on 12/18/2010. Minor formatting changes were made and references moved beneath the related slides.

The case for replacing Davis Besse with efficiency improvements and renewable energy sources Davis Besse relicensing community hearing St. Marks Episcopal Church, Toledo, OH December 18, 2010 Alvin D. Compaan Distinguished University Professor of Physics, Emeritus The University of Toledo Overview of presentation

1. History of Davis Besse indicates that 20 more years of operation will seriously endanger the surrounding communities.

2. Davis Besse provides only 8.3% of First Energys baseload generation and can readily be replaced.

3. Ohio Senate Bill 221 and the Advanced Energy Standard requires FE to:

• achieve higher efficiency by reducing demand 22% by 2025,

• achieve 12.5% generation from renewables by 2025,

• achieve 12.5% generation from advanced energy by 2025, which may include new advanced nuclear, but a continuation of DB will not qualify.

4. Distributed Generation will qualify for SB 221 credit.

5. Alternative sources are very attractive in Ohio:

• Wind near or in Lake Erie (class 3 to class 6 better than Texas!)

• Solar PV (costs are decreasing rapidly; FE used data 14 years old!)

Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan Page 1

What happens to the highly radioactive spent fuel rods?

• Expectation when Davis Besse was builta federal repository would be constructed for storing the high level radioactive components as needed for thousands of years.

• Yucca Mountainstill does not have an operating license and no funding was proposed in the federal 2011 budget.

• For 33 years, all highlevel radioactive components including fuel assemblies have been stored on site at Davis Besse. Initially in a cooling pond and then in aboveground containers.

No nuclear plant license extensions should be granted until a longterm storage facility is operating.

A troubling indicator: Where does the tritium in the Davis Besse ground water come from?

From Appendix E: Davis Besse Environmental Report p. 2.32:

Another well, MW105A, which has been on a slow increasing trend since the spring of 2009, had a tritium level of 4,158 pCi/l. As a result, FENOC is pursuing a root cause approach to identify the source of the tritium in the wells. No tritium concentrations have been detected at or above the USEPA drinking water limit of 20,000 pCi/l (40 CFR 141.66).

Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan Page 2

About tritium and its radioactivity:

• Tritium or hydrogen3 (1 proton and 2 neutrons) is not naturally occurring. It has a halflife of 12.3 years.

• Tritium is produced in nuclear reactors by neutron bombardment of Lithium6 and Boron10. [A small amount is produced in the upper atmosphere by cosmic rays.]

• Tritium is radioactive and decays by emitting a high energy electron (beta particle) plus an antineutrino.

• The beta particle has an average energy of 5.7 kiloelectron volts. It will not penetrate the outermost skin layers but is very dangerous if inhaled as hydrogen (H2 or HT) or water vapor or swallowed as waternot H2O but as HTO.

Excellent alternatives exist to extending the license 20 years and their costs are declining

• The incident and accident record of Davis Besse and the uncharted territory of extending the life of any nuclear plant 20 years beyond the 40year design life of the original should stimulate FE to get serious about alternatives.

• The best alternatives for Ohio are (IMHO):

1. Energy conservation

2. Wind

3. Solar

• These are already mandated by the State of Ohio. FE is required to develop these alternatives anyway AND is allowed by Ohio law to pass the costs through to the ratepayers.

Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan Page 3

Essential features of SB221 (passed in the spring of 2008)

1. Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (O.R.C. 4928.64.65)

• 25% electricity generation by advanced energy by 2025

• 12.5% by renewables with solar setaside of 0.5%

• Remaining 12.5% may include advanced energy such as:

• Clean coal (w/o CO2 emissions)

• Advanced nuclear (NRC Generation III technology)

[Gen III incorporates passive safety systems and is designed for 60 years of operation]

2. Net metering (O.R.C. 4928.67, 4905.31, 4928.01)

3. Energy Efficiency Standard (O.R.C. 4928.66)

• 22% reduction by 2025 through energy efficiency

• 7% peak demand reduction by 2018 Costs may be passed through to customers!

http://www.bricker.com/documents/publications/1533.pdf Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan Page 4

Lake Erie and the Lake Erie shore is a great resource for wind energy Map showing average wind power in Lake Erie better than Texas and the plain states http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps.html Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan Page 5

Ohio, and particularly NW Ohio, has excellent solar insolation wellsuited for photovoltaics (PV)

Errors in the First Energy Environmental Report (Appendix E):

• must consider fullsky insolation, not just direct solar

• must use current costs and cost projections for PV, not data from 1998!

(direct sunlight only)

Toledo/Orlando = 75%

Toledo/SanDiego = 60% (direct radiation) Toledo/Mojave = 45%

http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan Page 6

PV Energy kWh/kW-yr 2

Toledo/Orlando = 86% Toledo/San Diego = 79% (full sky radiation)

Electricity Price Convergence - 5 to 6 Years Solar PV industry - longterm outlook 0.30 cSi Electricity from solar PV is Demand Si (2x) becoming cheaper New technology wildcard Potential for explosive 0.25 CIGS Grid cost, solar PV price, ($/kWh) growth in demand upon convergence Supply CdTe 6%

0.20 Grid cost 5%

convergence 4%

0.15 US Average price of electricity in 2009 est:

9.5 cents/kWh Source: Deutsche Bank estimates 0.10 Periodic oversupply is c-Si (ave) c-Si (hi/lo) c-Si (hi CE) inevitable a-Si (um) CIGS CdTe Supply Demand 0.05 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Definitions:

First Generation PV: bulk crystalline silicon (monocrystalline, multicrystalline)

Second Generation PV: Inorganic thin films (CdTe, aSi:H, aSiGe, ncSi:H, CIGS)

Third Generation PV: nanostructures, organic/hybrid, advanced concepts Stephen ORourke (212) 2508670 Source: Deutsche Bank 2009 http://www.slideshare.net/gwsolar/pv-status-and-pathways-stephen-orourke Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan Page 7

Stimulating alternatives creates Ohio jobs

• Energy conservation / efficiency is a big job creator and saves the consumer money.

• Ohio has a large number of manufacturers that are suppliers for wind turbines.

• Maintenance of wind turbines creates many jobs.

• In 2009 the largest PV manufacturer in the world was First Solar with all of its U.S. manufacturing in Perrysburg.

• Several other PV manufacturers are starting up in Ohio.

• PV design and installation creates many jobs.

References http://www.bricker.com/documents/publications/1533.pdf http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps.html http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html http://www.slideshare.net/gwsolar/pvstatusandpathwaysstephenorourke Presentation by: Alvin Compaan 9135 W. Bancroft St.

Holland, OH 43528 December 18, 2010 Mobile: 4192652641 Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan Page 8