ML103620077

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2008/02/24-Survey of Costs Arising from Potential Radionuclide Scattering Events
ML103620077
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Site: Davis Besse Cleveland Electric icon.png
Issue date: 12/28/2010
From: Luna R, Yoshimura H, Hoo M
Sandia
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License Renewal 2, RAS 19324, 50-346-LR
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Text

Surn'Y or Cos t s Arising From Potl'ntiai Radio n uclidl' Scatlt'ring

[" I'llts -8147 ABSTRA C T Robert E. Llma , PhD , PE. Co u s uilanl Albuquerque , NM 87 1 1 1 H. Richard Yoshimura and Mad: S. Soo Hoo San dia Na ti ona l Laborat o ri e s* Albuquerque , NM 8 7 1 85 Th e potent i a l effect s from sca tterin g ra dio ac ti ve material s in public p l ace s include h e aldl , socia L a nd eco n omic con s e qu ences. Th ese are s ub s tantial co n s equen ces r e lati ve 10 pot e nt ia it e lTor acti v iti e s that i n clude u se o fradioactive material di s persal de v ic e s (ROD s). Suc h an eve nt wit h r adion ucl ide s r elea s ed and deposi t ed o n s urface s outs ide and insid e peop l e's re s id e n ces a n d pla ce s of work, co nUll e r ce. and recreation wi ll require deci sio n s o n h ow to r ecover fr o m th e eve n t. Glle a s pect of th o s e d ec i s ions w ill be the cos t to clean up the re s i dua l radioactive contaminatiollto make th e area functional again vers u s abandOlUllent a n d/o r razi n g and rebuil di n g. De v elopment of clea nu p proce ss es have been th e s ubject of experi m e nt from d Ie begiw lin g of the nuclear age. but fonnalized co s t breakdowns are relative l y rare and m o s tl y app li cab l e to l ong tenn re l ea s e s in non-public s ites. Pre-event cleanup cost e s timati o n of co s t fo r cleanup of radioac ti ve materia l s relea s ed t o dI e p u blic environment i s an i ss u e that h a s se en s poradic ac ti vi£y over th e la s l 20 to 3 0 years. l1Iis paper w ill briefly review se v era l of th e more importan t effo rt s to estimate d ie co s t s of remedia ti o n or razing and recon s tru c ti o n of radioacti v ely co n taminated area s. The cos t e s timates for s uch recoverie s w ill be compared in t e nn s of 2005 doll ars for the s ake of con s i s tency. Dependence of cost e s t i m ate s o n po pul ation den s i ty and n eede d degree of decontamination w ill be s ho w n to be quite s tron g in th e overa ll presentation of th e data. LITERATURE OVERVIEW Te c hn iq u e s u s e d for case s of relea se d radioactive mat eria l s in th e eve nt of a n accident during t ra n s poI1 ha ve been a p rincipal s ource of cos t es tim ating tecllllique

s. T he s e are con t ai n e d in the RADTRAN transport ri s k as s essmen t codes that we r e ftrst p r oduced in 1 974 for u s e in preparing NUREG-O 170 (NRC , 1977). TImt vers ion , RADTRAN I , had s evera l revi s i on s in s u cceed in g i ss u e s of th e code t o th e pre s e nt vers i o n co ntained in RADTRAN VI. Two n o n-RADTRAN
  • Sa f'l(lia I s a multiprogram laboratory operated by Sandia Ccxporation. a lockllee<l Marl i n company. l or the S lates Department of Energy's National Nu clear Security Adrrinistration uf'l(ler Cootrad DE-A C 04*94A l8 5000. Page 1/

methodologi es are also notable. First. i s an anal ys i s completed to e s timate the co s t of cleaning up plutonitun s cattered a s a res ult of a nuclear weapons accident that wa s completed in 1 996 (C h a nin. 1 996). Second i s a co mputer code developed in th e UK (a nd a ppar en tl y on l y u s able for UK go v enunent purpose s) ca ll ed CONDO (Charnock , 2 003). In addit i o n. some cleanup co s t e s timate s h ave been put forward in a paper (Reichmuth , 2005) for th e Depamnent of Homeland Sec m lty that gives cleanup co s t esti mate s for high population densi ty areas based on RADTRAN IV calculalioll s and acrua l costs for remediation of the Wor l d Trade Cente r (WTC) s ite in New York C i ty. PROCESS USED The meth odo l ogy for e s timating cleanup costs use s 1\\'0 princ i pa l parameters. TIl e first and mo s t basic i s the acceptab l e re s idual le ve l of con t amination detennined for each nuclid e r e lea s ed that wi ll avoid a given l eve l of radio l ogica l do s e to perso n s w h o will r ema i n l iving/working in the contaminated area. TIle acceptab l e do se and, hence , t he r e s idua l contamination l eve l for eac h nuclide , i s lik e l y to be negotiated for each re l ea se e v ent (DH S , 2007). TIle s econd parameter i s the Decontamination F acto r. OF. which can be rationalized in 1\\'0 way s:

  • At any point at the s it e of the radioactive material re l ease , it i s th e ratio of th e l oca l contamination l eve l for a released nuclide to the acceptable re s idual contamination l eve l. (DF J
  • A m ea s ure of the capability of a give n cleanup method (like water h osi n g) t o red u ce the contamination l eve l for a give n s urface material.

Thu s , it i s the ra ti o of contamination le ve l befo r e tr eatment 10 co nl a minati o n l eve l after treatment , (OF...) Spec ifi c cl ea nup tec1mologie s applied to s pecific s urface s and nu c lide s a r e characterized by th e m axi mum DF m ac hi evab l e. I f the OF. i s less than the effect s of a ll th e cleanu p proce ss e s that could be ap p l ied seq u e ntiall y. OF. < [OF m , then cleanup i s s ucc e ss ftll. btu if th e OF. i s greater than the effect s of all th e cleanup processes that are applied seq u e nti a ll y , OF. > [ OF m. then other altemative

s. lik e razing and rebuildin g , or interdiction mu s t be ap p l ied. TIle method o lo g i e s u s ed in the all oflhe cited li t eratt ll'e recogni ze d the limitations of cleanup and emp l oy ra z ing 0 1' interdiction in the event t ha t the required OF. fo r a g iven s ituation could not be achie ve d by s t a ndard cleanup proce sses. For m o s t of t he ea rl y co s t eslimation t ec lUlique s. i t was a ss tuued that a OF m o f 50 was g enera ll y attainable , but more recent data , ni ce l y S tunmall z ed in t he CONDO r eport , s uggest that a OFm grea t e r than 10 or so (w ith s ome iso l ated exceptio n s) is tuilik e l y to be atta m ed. TIlis s u gges t s t hat the earlier co s t estimate s wou l d be expected to be so m ew h at lo w , s ince cleanup cos t s are generally l ower than raze and rebui l d or interdiction meth ods. Page 2/

Fo r t h e da t a pre se nt ed be l ow t h e origina l cl e an u p c o st e s t i m ate s pr e s e n ted i n the s o ur ce doc lUu e n t s were extracted a nd co n ve rt e d t o 2005 cos t s us in g s ta n da r d co s t de fl a t ors (W illi a m so n. 2006). h I ge n eral. co sts w er e stra ti fie d by t h e in it i a l l eve l of contami n atio n a s r ep r e s e n ted by OF. va lu es. Light co n ta min a ti o n co rr espo n ded t o a OF. <5: mediwn. 5< OF. <10; a n d h eavy. OF. >10. Co s t s in th e RADTRAN r eport s we r e fi lf1h e r s t ratified by a specificat i o n re l a ti ng to pop u latio n density (m ra l, s u b ur ban , and u rba n) co rr e s po n ding to mea n populatio n de n s itie s ofabo U! 10. 750, an d 3800 pe rsons per kn l r e s pective l y. h I the C h a n in report. t h e urban popu l at i on de n s i ty va l ues w er e tak e n to be about 1350 perso n si knl (co rr e s po n di n g to a mea n pop u l a tio n de n s i ty in ar ea s ide n tified a s ur ba n ize d by th e ce n s u s burea u). Re i c h m uth stated tha t po pul a t io n den s itie s (PD i n perso ll s/k m 2) were a s fo ll ow s: R ural 0 < PO < 50 U rb a n 50 < PO < 30 00 Hi g h D e n s i t y U rb a n 3000 < P O < 1 0 , 000 H yper D e n s i t y Urb an 1 0 , 000 < P O As i s o b v i o u s f r o m til e ab ove, t h e r e i s n o s tric t tran s l at i on o f wo rd s d e s c ribin g pop ul a t io n den s ity t e nll i n o l ogy in q uantit a ti ve te nu s, but th e re i s en o u g h s pe c ifi c i ty t o co m pa r e vario u s co s t s es t i m a t e s a s a ft m c t io n of pop ul a t i on den s i ty. TIl e SNL s tudy (C h a n i n. 1996) p rov id e d a fa irl y d e tai l ed m e th odo l ogy i n w h ich t o es t imate cos t s. Fo r an u rban area. t h e overa ll res ult s t hat ca me o u t of th e effort are shown in Tab l e I. Tab l e I. Urban Area (1344 perso n s/bu 2) Rem ediatio n Co sts fo r Yea r 2005 in SMlkm 2 fro m A p pe n dix G (C h anin. 1 996). Cosu pn s q. kID A ru "'d g bIHl C o ns Ana Usa,. Li, bl M od ... : II. U n,.,. A n a Lip l M odH"2 l. U n,")" T ,,,. (2<D F ,<S) (5<DF ,1 0) F rx li o D (2<D F ,<5) (5<O F ,<1 0) (DF ,>I O) Residentia l' 1 72.4 1t63.9 SJ01.2 0.316 1 22.9 1 51.8 19 5.2 Commerc i a l S19 5.3 S295.5 S851.2 0.1 73 $33.8 S 5 1.1 S1 4 7.3 In d u stria l S674.0 S704.2 S I ,2 4 5.9 0.064 S43.1 $45.1 S 79.7 SIree I S $15.9 $18.5 $2 4 7.7 0.1 75 $2.8 S3.2 $4 3.3 Vacan l L and $81.1 $85.7 $9 5.2 0.272 $2 2.1 1 23.3 $25.9 Ov era ll C ost per sq. krn $12 4.6 1 174.5 $391.4 . mc.l udes lingle and multiple fmnily dwdlmgs and 1I partnJ=1 houses T a b l e I de m ons t rate s t h e m et h odo l ogy used as w ell a s res ult s. Costs we re e s t i ma ted for ge n eric l a nd u se areas a n d th e n we i g h ted by t h e frac ti o n o f th e ove r a ll area in th at l and u se cla ss. S h ort of repea t i.n g th e considerab l e e ff ort in d ev el o ping t h e r eport re s ult s, w h at o p tion s exis t for e s t i.m a tiIl g t h e cleanup cos t fo r h igher po pulat io n de n s i ty a r ea s? If data i s a v ai l ab l e fo r t h e la nd use area frac ti o n s iI I the hi g h er po pul a ti o n area , th e n an e s ti m a t e ca n be m ade by p l ugging in tb ose va l u e s i n th e 51b coh m m of Ta bl e I. In a dditi o n , an a d ju s tm e nt for popu l a t ion de n s ity can Page 3/

be mad e b y n o t i n g that hi gher poPlda ti on density implie s that th ere are m o r e dwe 1li.ll g lUlit s per km 2 a nd that th e co s ts s h own in Table I are ba se d on indi vid ual dwellin gs. As a re s ult. l1 udtipl y i.n g th e r es ide nt ial co s t s b y a ratio of population den s i ty s h ou l d ad ju s t for higher popu l a ti o n s in the sa me area. In addition, s ince commercial s pace i s lik e l y t o expand w ith popu l atio n den s i ty. t he com m e r c ial val u e s w ould a l so be a dju s ted in a s imilar Il13IU l er. TIl e s e are app r oxi n 13te m e th od s and usef hl Ol d y for or der of magnihld e e s timate s. TI l e re s u lt of suc h a dj us tm e nt s is s hown in Tab l e U. T able U. E s timat ed Remediation Co s t s for New York C i ty Reflecting La n d U s e Distribu t ion and Popu l at i o n D e n s i ty. Ar n "'rig h trd Popu t ulon I nd Arn W r i g htrd Lo n d Us. Li e h l Mod u at .. H .. a,.,. PD Li chl Mod .. ral .. H n * .,. Fraction' (2<DF , (S<DF ,1 0) "'nlli p l (2<DF , <S) (S<o F ,<lO) (DF ,>I O) Res id e nti a l 0.2 8 7 $2 0.3 1 $4 5.99 $8 4.5 1 6.8 2 $138.55 $3 1 3.64 $57 6.38 Commercia l 0.164 $32.09 $4 8.55 $139.84 6.8 2 $2 1 8.8 4 $3 3 1.1 2 $9 5 3.80 Indu s tria l 0.068 $4 5.5 1 $4 7.55 $8 4.1 2 L OO $4 5.5 1 $4 7.5 5 $8 4.1 2 S tr ee t s 0.25 0 $3.97 $4.62 $61.88 L OO $3.9 7 $4.6 2 $61.88 Va c a nt L and 0.23 8 $1 9.2 9 $20.38 $22.64 L OO $1 9.2 9 $20.3 8 $22.64 LOO Ovmlll C os t ($Mlkm $1 2 1.2 $16 7.1 $393.0 $4 26 $7 1 7 $1 , 699

  • dm v ed from New York C ity data (h ttp J!w....-w.n yc.go Vl btmllskp f pdfllandusefa c tsl!anduse t able s. pdf) ntlO of New York C Ity populatt o n density t o that m Table 1 (9 1 66'1344 '" 6.82) Th e proce ss u se d 10 produce Tab l e II can be u sed to deri ve r e m ediatio n c os t e s tima t e s fo r o th e r po pulati o n den s i ty area s a s show n by the triangle point s in Figure I. F i gure) al s o co nta i n s re m edia ti o n co s t data fro m the s ource doclUllellt s discus s ed abo v e. TIle L ege nd i n Figure I i s quit e l arge. but i s color keyed for so m e add iti o n cla rity. Red lin e s a nd sy mbol s a r e for (DF.>l O). orange for (5 < O F. < 1 0), and green for (I < OF. < 5). Purpl e s y mbo l s are for e s ti n13 t es ti13t are un s pecific abo ut th e DF.th e y ap p l y to , but th e va lu es co uld be a s l arge a s 50. F i g ure 1 s h ow s a fa ir amou nt of variab ility in the co s t s esti n13 ted by th e va ri ou s m e th od s and s ource s covered i n thi s ove l v iew. TIle t h r ee s tr aight lin e s pen c iled in o n the plo t are int e nded t o s u gge s t h ow th e co s ts mi g ht va l Y w ith poPldation den s ity a nd de g re e of co nt a min a ti o n. TIle lin e s a re a re a s o n ab l e repre s e nt atio n of mu c h of the infOlmati o n , but so me data poi nt s deviate s ub s tanti a ll y a n d will be di s cus s ed h ere. The 1\\'0 r ed di sc point s th a t are we ll abov e th e C l uves are fro m th e paper b y R e iclulluth and are ba se d on e s tin13te s of co s t derived 10 clean u p a nd re s t o re (n ot r ebuild) th e 16 ac r e WTC s ite in N e w York C ity after 9/11. Th e c os t t o replace th e facilitie s i s e s timat e d to be a n ord e r of magnihlde lar g er (not s ho w n o n the pl o t), Page 4/

$100 , 000 $1 0 ,0 00 $1.000 SiOO $10 .s ; 1

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... -..... . 1 0 * + * * , <'"r-* ..... Suborban -... -100 1 ,0 00 10 ,000 Po p ulation D e nsi t y (persons/sq. km) Figure I: Remediation Cost E s timate s Compared.

10 0,0 00 Page 5/

S inc e th e e s timated co s t wa s based on the area of the wrc s ite , but the ac tu a l expendi tur e co v ered ac t io n s made over th e SUffOlUIding areas and included action s so m ewha t beyond w hat would be expected in re s po n s e to an RDD event , the acnJaI co s t/kIl l co uld be overe s t imated by 5 0% t o 60%. Th e purp l e sq u are s be lo w ul e curve represent the es timat es that were done using RADTRAN I in the mid 1 970's w ith a n l Ul s ophi s t icate d methodol ogy. Moreover , th e e s tim a t e s are the o l de s t and mo s t s ubj ec t to lUlcertai n ty a s sociated w iul selecting the be s t deflator s tati s tic for updat ing co s ts. Th e RADTRAN 6 e s timate s (purple diamonds) al so are be l ow the tr e nd lin e s but n o t a s pronounced a n effect a s wi ul RADTRAN 6 (Os born , 2(07). No t e that th e RADTRAN 6 va lu es (squa r e s w i th center cro ss e s) fit much more clo se ly w ith the other e s timate s and the trend line s. The trend line s favor th e co s t v a l ue s ge nera t ed b y t he San dia s nld y (C hanin. 1996). becau s e of th e d e tai l invo l ved in th e initial es t imates and the ability t o proje c t the co s t s to other pop ulation den s itie s and l and u s e area frac t ions. CONCLUS I ON TIl e l ikelihood ofa " Dirty Bomb" attack in the US or el sew her e i s unknown. Mo s t s o u rce s s u gge s t (e. g .. K aram. 2(05) tha t t he radio l ogical consequence s of s u c h a n a tta ck are unlik ely to be life tlu-ea t e nin g and th a t th e greates t mort a l danger i s to persou s exposed t o bla s t from th e device (a ss mn ing th at i s i t s mode of opera ti o n). Ho weve r , the expendit ur e s needed to recover from a s ucce ss ftu attack using a n RDD type de vice , a s depicted in F i gure I. are lik ely to be s ignificallt from the s t andpoi nt of resources avai l ab l e to l oca l o r s tate goven u nen t s. Eve n a de v i ce th at con tam ina t es an area o f a few hw)(i re d acre s (a sq uare kil o m e t er) 1 0 a l evel that re quire s m ode s t re m edia t ion i s like l y to produce cost s rangin g from S I O M t o S 3 00M or more depending 0 11 int e n s it y of co nunercialization , population den s ity. a nd detail s of land u se in the area. As a r e s\U I. i t i s impo rt a nt to put a ppropriate e mph a s i s o n the effort s 1I 0W being tak e n by the Department of Energy. N ucl ear Regulatory Commission , and the Department of Homeland Sec urity 10 p rovide acco\U1t a nc y for radioactive materi a l s u sed in th e public and priva t e s ectors and t o d etec t. a s ftllly a s po ss ib l e. traffic in potentia l dirty bomb m a t eria l s w ithin and o n t h e borders of the USA. Page 6/

REFERENCES (C h a nin , 1 996): C h anin. David L and Murfin Walter B., "S ite R es to ra ti o n: E s t imation of Attributable Cos t s From Plutonium-Di s persal Accident s". S andia Na ti o n a l Labora t orie s. Report SAND 96-0957. May 1 996. (C h ar n ock, 2003): C ham oc k. T. et ai , " C ONDO: Sofiv.'are for E s tim a tin g the Con s eq u ence s of Dec o ntanunati o ll Option s". Natio nal Radiologica l Protecti o u Board. Report NRPB-W4 3. Ma y 2003). (DRS, 2007): Departme nt of Homeland Security , Preparedn es s Directorate

"Protec ti ve Ac ti o n Gu i de s f or Radiologica l Di s persa l Device (ROD) and Impro v i s ed N ucl ear D evice (INDY', Federa l Regi s t er , Vo l. 7 1. No. I , January 3, 2006 , pI 74-196. (Ka nlp t', 1 992):. Kanipe , F and Ne uha u s er , K. S., " RADTRAN 4: Vo l um e 4 Programmer s Manua l" , Sa ndia N ational Laboratorie s, Report SAND89-2370 , Ju l y 1 992. (K ara m , 2005): Karam , Andrew, " Radiolog i cal Te n orislll ," Hmu a ll and Eco lo gica l Ri s k As s e ss m e nt. Vol. I L 2005 , pp. 50 1-52 3. (Nt'uh a u st'r, 1 992): Ne uhau s er. K. S. and Kanipe , F., " RADTRAN 4: Vollune 3 U s er Guide". Sa ndi a Nat i o n a l Laboratories , Report SAND89-2370 , January 1 99 2. (Nt'uh a u st'r, 1 993): Ne uh a u ser. K. S. and Kanipe , F., " RADTRAN 4: Vo llun e 2 T ec hnical Manual", Sand i a Nat i ona l Laboratories , Report SAND89-2 37 0. Augu st 1 993. (OS b OI'U , 2007): Private Co mmuni c ation w ith Dougla s Osborn, SNL r e l a ti ve to e s t i mat ed cle a uup co st e s timated by RADTRAN VI , October 200 7. (pt'ul stt'o , 2007): Peni s tell , J. P .. and Weiner , R., " An Economic Mode l ofa Radioactive Materia l s Tran s portation Accide nt for the RADTRAN Ri s k A ss e ss m e nt Code", Proceeding s of Waste Ma na ge m ent 2005. Feb mary 2 7-March 3 , 2005 , Tucson , AZ (SAND 2 oo5-3 80 2 C). (1\'RC , 1 977): "Fi n a l Environmental S tatement on the Transportati oo of Radioactive Ma terial s by Air and O th er Mode s" , NUREG-O 1 70 , US Nuclear Regulatory Co nUlu ss io ll. Wa s hin gto n , DC. Dec e mber 1 977. (Rt'l r hmuth , 2005): Reichmuth, B., et a I , " E conomic Consequence s ofa RADINUC Altack: C l eanup Sta nd ard s Sig nificantl y Affect Cos t" , Proceeding s of Working T oget h er R&D Partne rs hip s in Hom e land Sec mity , Bo s ton , MA , April 2003 (Pa c ific N OIlhw e s l N ational Laboratory.

P NN L-SA-4 5 2 56). (Will ia m so n , 2 006): Williamson, Sa m ue l H., "F i ve Ways t o Co m pute the Relative Value of a U.S. Do ll ar Am o unt. 1 79 0 -2 005 ," Mea s uringWOllh

.Com , 2 006 O l t tp:Il wv.""'.m e a s lmn g\\'Ollh.c om/c al c ul a t ors/u s co m pa r e/re s u l t.php . Page 1/

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