ML13045A857
| ML13045A857 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Site: | Indian Point  |
| Issue date: | 12/01/2009 |
| From: | Enercon Services |
| To: | Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel, Entergy Nuclear Northeast |
| SECY RAS | |
| References | |
| RAS 24129, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01 | |
| Download: ML13045A857 (11) | |
Text
SITE SPECIFIC MACCS2 INPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1
December 1, 2009
SITE SPECIFIC MACCS2 INPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1
Prepared for Entergy Nuclear Northeast White Plains, NY
Prepared by Enercon Services, Inc.
6525 N. Meridian Suite 400 Oklahoma City, OK 73116
December 1, 2009 Revision 1 December 1, 2009 1-1
1.0 INTRODUCTION
The Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMAs) for the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) uses the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2), for estimating the health and economic consequences of severe accidents. Should a severe reactor accident occur, downwind populations, buildings, and crops would be exposed to radioactive materials. MACCS2 estimates the range and probability of the health effects and the economic costs and losses that would result from such an accident. Data used in this SAMA were imported and organized using ESRI ArcGIS 9.1 Geographic Information System (GIS) (Reference 1.1). ArcGIS 9.1 was used for all geographic processing, overlays, and map production occurred within the ArcGIS 9.1 framework. MACCS2 requires data in sixteen equiangular sectors centered on IPEC, extending to 50-mile radius. The sector grid is divided into spatial elements by superimposing fifteen circles of increasing diameter over sixteen sectors, for a total of 240 spatial elements. These circles are 0.2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 miles from IPEC. For the purposes of this report, the IPEC center point was determined as the center of the super-heater stack. Census 2000 Line Data via ESRI (Reference 1.2) for fourteen counties in New York, ten counties in New Jersey, three counties in Connec ticut, and one county in Pennsylvania within the IPEC 50-mile buffer were used as base map layers (Figure 1.1, Table 1.1).
Data input into MA CCS2 code include:
- 1. Population in 2035-at the end of the license renewal period for 240 spatial elements.
- 2. Land Fraction-proportion of each of the 240 spatial elements that is land, not water. 3. Watershed Index-indication of whether spatial element is drained by rivers or is a lake/water body.
- 4. Regional Economic Data-estimation of amount of farming and economic activities.
- 5. Agricultural Data-crop types, growing season, and percent of farmland for each crop.
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 1-2 Figure 1.1 US counties within 50-miles of IPEC.
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 1-3 Table 1.1 Counties within 50-miles of IPEC.
State/CountyLand Area (square miles)Percent within 50-mile zoneConnecticutFairfield620100.0Litchfield90741.5New Haven59532.9New JerseyBergen 231100.0Essex122100.0Hudson44100.0Middlesex3061.8Morris45180.8Passaic185100.0Somerset3044.5Sussex51593.9Union10292.9Warren3560.5New YorkBronx41100.0Dutchess 79388.9Kings67100.0Nassau26997.9New York23100.0Orange812100.0Putnam226100.0Queens106100.0Richmond5665.4Rockland173100.0Suffolk89521.3Sullivan96736.3Ulster112358.1Westchester430100.0PennsylvaniaPike54018.7 Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-2 County 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 New York Bronx 1,332,650 1,365,536 1,425,1701,469,2061,511,3221,550,580 1,586,661 1,634,750Dutchess 280,150 293,395 293,520299,468304,815309,007 311,809 319,391Kings 2,465,326 2,475,290 2,531,4242,554,5792,571,6022,580,325 2,580,903 2,618,418Nassau 1,334,544 1,339,641 1,312,1661,300,1251,290,3281,278,213 1,260,336 1,251,644New York 1,537,195 1,562,723 1,587,0981,600,3531,606,7181,605,202 1,595,353 1,570,657Orange 341,367 370,352 370,521386,015401,414415,973 429,580 445,234Putnam 95,745 100,570 103,786107,436110,891113,917 116,428 120,738Queens 2,229,379 2,237,216 2,452,1092,567,8982,685,2062,799,559 2,908,709 3,024,717Richmond 443,728 463,314 505,844537,493569,636600,954 630,683 662,838Rockland 286,753 293,626 291,706291,618290,732288,593 284,768 278,799Suffolk 1,419,369 1,475,488 1,456,1951,466,8081,474,7461,476,069 1,468,072 1,490,766Sullivan 73,966 76,110 79,52282,52485,51288,362 91,092 94,055Ulster 177,749 181,779 190,389197,153203,871210,096 215,719 222,655Westchester 923,459 942,444 926,798925,714924,149919,864 911,278 914,934 Pennsylvania Pike 46,302 54,117 60,05969,44779,170 103,437 2.2 Projected Transient Population State tourism agencies were contacted to obtain the most recent tourist (transient) information (Table 2.2). Tourist informa tion for 2004 was not available for Pennsylvania therefore 2003 data was incorporated and was assumed to rema in constant for 2004. Fine geographical level tourism data (e.g. tourist per year per county) is not coll ected by states within 50-mile of IPEC. Connecticut and New Jersey only collect this data at a state level. New York breaks state level visitation numbers into five counties within New York City metropolitan area (defined as Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond counties) and the rest of New York state and Pennsylvania reports tour ist per year at a re gional level, (Pocono region which includes Carbon, Monroe, Pike and Wayne c ounties is the relevant region). To convert state visitation numbers into county visitation the ratio of estimated 2004 county population (Reference 2.5) to estimated 2004 state population was multiplied by total number visitors in state (Table 2.2.1).
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-3 Table 2.2.1 State Tourism Offices and Reported Visitor Numbers.
State - Region Department Data Year Reporting Visitor Numbers Reference Numbers Connecticut Connecticut Commission on Culture and Tourism 2004 19,254,000 2.6 New Jersey New Jersey Travel and Tourism 2004 71,741,000 2.7 New York - New York MSA NYC & Company 2004 41,000,000 2.8 New York New York Travel and Tourism 2004 96,000,000 2.9 Pennsylvania - Pocono Region Visit Pennsylvania - Pennsylvania Tourism Department 2003 17,726,400 2.10
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-4 Table 2.2.2 2004 Transient/permanent ratio for 28 reporting counties.
County 2004 Estimated Population 2004 Person Visits (per day) Transient/Permanent Ratio (per day) Connecticut Fairfield 903,29113,6180.015Litchfield 189,2462,8530.015New Haven 845,69412,7500.015New Jersey Bergen 902,99820,4350.023Essex 796,68418,0290.023Hudson 606,24013,7200.023Middlesex 785,09517,7670.023Morris 488,17311,0480.023Passaic 500,42711,3250.023Somerset 316,7507,1680.023Sussex 152,2183,4450.023Union 531,95712,0390.023Warren 110,0182,4900.023New York Bronx 1,365,53618,9270.014Dutchess 293,3956,9040.024Kings 2,475,29034,3090.014Nassau 1,339,64131,5250.024New York 1,562,72321,6610.014Orange 370,3528,7150.024Putnam 100,5702,3670.024Queens 2,237,21631,0100.014Richmond 463,3146,4220.014Rockland 293,6266,9100.024Suffolk 1,475,48834,7220.024Sullivan 76,1101,7910.024Ulster 181,7794,2780.024Westchester 942,44422,1780.024Pennsylvania Pike 54,1178,1120.150
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-5 2.3 Projected Total Population The projected total population within a 50-mile radius of IPEC was estimated for the year 2035, the end of the proposed license renewal period, by combining the 2035 extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3) with 2035 extrapolated transient population. The 2035 extrapolated transient population was assumed to be the 2004 transient/population ratio multiplied by the extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3).
Table 2.3 Projected total population (2035) by county.
County Transient/Permanent Ratio 2035 Projected Permanent Population 2035 Projected Total Population Connecticut Fairfield 0.015918,600932,828 Litchfield 0.015217,309220,675 New Haven 0.015896,364910,248 New Jersey Bergen 0.0231,089,4281,114,876 Essex 0.023868,715889,007 Hudson 0.023690,981707,121 Middlesex 0.0231,053,5111,078,120 Morris 0.023653,201668,459 Passaic 0.023553,404566,330 Somerset 0.023470,131481112 Sussex 0.023217,947223038 Union 0.023590,616604,412 Warren 0.023156,074159,719 New York Bronx 0.0141,634,7501,657,680 Dutchess 0.024319,391327,050 Kings 0.0142,618,4182,655,145 Nassau 0.0241,251,6441,281,658 New York 0.0141,570,6571,592,688 Orange 0.024445,234455,910 Putnam 0.024120,738123,633 Queens 0.0143,024,7173,067,143 Richmond 0.014662,838672,135 Rockland 0.024278,799285,484 Suffolk 0.0241,490,7661,526,514 Sullivan 0.02494,05596,310 Ulster 0.024222,655227,994 Westchester 0.024914,934936,873 Pennsylvania Pike 0.15103,437120,669 Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-6 2.4 Projected Total Population by Spatial Element Areal weighting was used to transfer 2035 projected total population from source areas (county) to target areas (spatial elements) by converting county population to a density measure (e.g. number of people in county/acre) and multiplying this density by the area that county has in a spatial element. For spatial elements that are comprised of elements of more than one county, individual county densities were multiplied by areas of each county in a spatial element and summed. Total projected population of the 50-mile zone of analysis is 19,228,712 and the
distribution of 2035 total population is summarized in Table 2.4 and illustrated in Figure 2.2.
Table 2.4 2035 projected total population summari zed by wind direction and buffer distance.
Wind Direction 0 to 10 miles 11 to 20 miles 21 to 30 miles 31 to 40 miles 41 to 50 miles Total N 12,488 22,955 30,654 39,620 51,057 156,774 NNE 14,952 28,140 39,917 56,226 67,213 206,448 NE 23,377 29,419 53,692 62,559 41,261 210,308 ENE 40,386 74,856 119,073 152,175 176,338 562,828 E 41,290 118,335 156,720 200,581 208,394 725,320 ESE 37,861 121,515 144,267 54,180 34,361 392,184 SE 41,873 111,946 87,735 236,426 379,990 857,970 SSE 12,197 98,326 481,703 1,380,249 1,218,170 3,190,645 S 20,621 135,211 1,164,596 3,732,339 3,164,306 8,217,073 SSW 30,318 202,605 395,389 922,649 1,034,467 2,585,428 SW 30,796 183,372 276,902 197,362 246,076 934,508 WSW 27,723 64,428 209,197 109,102 85,849 496,299 W 16,925 32,026 50,974 61,380 57,384 218,689 WNW 14,036 32,528 54,577 57,977 29,719 188,837 NW 13,421 32,572 54,557 24,046 22,317 146,913 NNW 12,286 31,660 32,569 27,599 34,374 138,488 Totals 390,550 1,319,894 3,352,522 7,314,470 6,851,276 19,228,712
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-7 Figure 2.1 2035 projected tota l population by spatial element (dark red indicates highest population).