ML19115A206
| ML19115A206 | |
| Person / Time | |
|---|---|
| Issue date: | 04/30/2019 |
| From: | M'Lita Carr NRC/RES/DRA/FRB |
| To: | |
| M. Carr | |
| References | |
| Download: ML19115A206 (5) | |
Text
4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop April 30 - May 2, 2019 U.S. NRC Headquarters, Rockville, Maryland On April 30 - May 2, 2019, the Nuclear Regulatory Commissions Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research (NRC/RES) will host the 4th Annual NRC Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment (PFHA) Research Workshop at NRC headquarters in Rockville, Maryland. Staff and contractors from NRC, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI),
federal agencies, industry, and other organizations involved in flood hazard assessment, flood risk assessment, and flood protection/mitigation research will provide information on recent results, current activities, and perspectives on future research directions. This three-day workshop is open to the public at no charge, but registration is required.
AGENDA: TUESDAY, APRIL 30, 2019 09:00 - 09:10 Welcome & Logistics Session 1A: Introduction Session Chair: Meredith Carr, NRC/RES 09:10 - 09:25 Introduction 1A-1 Raymond Furstenau*, Director, Office of Nuclear Regulatory Research 09:25 - 09:45 NRC Flooding Research Program Overview 1A-2 Joseph Kanney*, Meredith Carr, Tom Aird, Elena Yegorova, Mark Fuhrmann & Jacob Philip, NRC/RES 09:45 - 10:05 EPRI Flooding Research Program Overview 1A-3 Marko Randelovic*, Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI) 10:05 - 10:20 Nuclear energy Agency Working Group on External Events (WGEV) 1A-4 Flooding Overview John Nakoski*, NRC/RES 10:20 - 10:35 BREAK
- denotes presenter, ^ denotes remote presenter v.032119 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 1
4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop Session 1B: Coastal Flooding Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES 10:35 - 11:05 KEYNOTE: NWS Storm Surge Ensemble Guidance 1B-1 Arthur Taylor*, NWS 11:05 - 11:30 Advancements in Probabilistic Storm Surge Models and Uncertainty 1B-2 Quantification Using Gaussian Process Metamodeling Norberto C. Nadal-Caraballo*, Victor M. Gonzalez, Alexandros Taflanidis, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) R&D Center, Coastal and Hydraulics Laboratory 11:30 - 11:55 Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Using the Joint Probability 1B-3 Method for Hurricane Storm Surge Michael B. Salisbury^ (EPRI Contractor, tentative) 11:55 - 12:20 Assessment of Epistemic Uncertainty for Probabilistic Storm Surge 1B-4 Hazard Assessment using a Logic Tree Approach Bin Wang*, GZA 12:20 - 13:00 Coastal Flooding Panel 1B-5 13:00 - 14:00 LUNCH Session 1C: Precipitation Session Chair: Elena Yegorova, NRC/RES 14:00 - 14:30 KEYNOTE: Satellite Precipitation Estimates, GPM, and Extremes 1C-1 George J. Huffman*, NASA/GSFC 14:30 - 14:55 Hurricane Harvey Highlights: Need to Assess the Adequacy of 1C-2 Probable Maximum Precipitation Estimation Methods Shih-Chieh Kao, Scott T. DeNeale, David B. Watson, ORNL 14:55 - 15:20 Current Use of Reanalysis in Flood Hazard Assessments 1C-3 Jason Caldwell *, USACE, Galveston District 15:20 - 15:35 BREAK 15:35 - 16:00 Current Capabilities for Developing Watershed Precipitation- 1C-4 Frequency Relationships and Storm-Related Inputs for Stochastic Flood Modeling for Use in Risk-Informed Decision-Making M.G. Schaefer*, MGS Engineering Consultants, Inc.
16:00 - 16:25 Factors Affecting the Development of Precipitation Areal Reduction 1C-5 Factors Shih-Chieh Kao*, Scott DeNeale, ORNL 16:25 - 17:05 Precipitation Panel Discussion 1C-6 17:05 - 17:20 Daily Wrap-up v.032119 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 2
4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop AGENDA: WEDNESDAY, MAY 1, 2019 08:20 - 08:30 Day 2 Welcome Session 2A: Riverine Flooding Session Chairs: Meredith Carr and Mark Fuhrmann, NRC/RES 08:30 - 9:00 KEYNOTE: Using HEC-WAT to evaluate watershed level systems 2A-1 based risk Will Lehmann, Lea Adams, Chris Dunn, USACE, Institute for Water Resources, Hydrologic Engineering Center (HEC) 09:00 - 09:25 Global Sensitivity Analyses Applied to Riverine Flood Modeling 2A-2 Vincent Rebour and Claire-Marie Duluc, Institut de radioprotection et de sûreté nucléaire (IRSN) Radioprotection and Nuclear Safety Institute 09:25 - 09:50 Detection and attribution of flood change across the United States 2A-3 Stacey A. Archfield*, Water Mission Area, U.S. Geological Survey 09:50 - 10:15 Bulletin 17C Flood Frequency and Extrapolations for Dams and 2A-4 Nuclear Facilities J. England*, USACE, Risk Management Center 10:15 - 10:35 BREAK 10:35 - 11:00 Riverine Paleoflood Analyses in Risk-Informed Decision Making: 2A-5 Improving Hydrologic Loading Input for USACE Dam Safety Evaluations Keith Kelson*, USACE, Sacramento Dam Safety Production Center; Justin Pearce, USACE, Risk Management Center; Brian Hall, USACE, Dam Safety Modification Mandatory Center of Expertise 11:00 - 11:25 Improving Flood Frequency Analysis with a Multi-Millennial Record of 2A-6 Extreme Floods on the Tennessee River near Chattanooga, TN Tess Harden*, Jim OConnor & Mackenzie Keith, U.S.
Geological Survey 11:25 - 12:05 Riverine Flooding Panel Discussion 12:05 - 13:25 LUNCH v.032119 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 3
4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop Session 2B: Modeling Frameworks Session Chair: Thomas Nicholson, NRC/RES 13:25 - 13:50 Structured Hazard Assessment Committee Process for Flooding 2B-1 (SHAC-F) for Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Rajiv Prasad^ & Phillip Meyer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory; Kevin Coppersmith, Coppersmith Consulting 13:50- 14:15 Overview of the TVA PFHA Calculation System 2B-2 Shaun Carney*, RTI International, Water Resource Management Division 14:15 - 14:40 Development of Risk-Informed safety margin characterization 2B-3 framework for flooding of nuclear power plants M.A. Andre, George Washington University; E. Ryan, Idaho State University, Idaho National Laboratory; S. Prescott*, Idaho National Laboratory; N. Montanari, R. Sampath, Centroic Lab; L.
Lin, A. Gupta, N. Dinh, North Carolina State University; P.M.
Bardet, George Washington University 14:40 - 15:20 Modeling Frameworks Panel Discussion 2B-4 15:20 - 15:35 Daily Wrap-up 15:35 - 16:50 Session 2C: Poster Session Session Chair: Meredith Carr, NRC/RES 18:00 Group Dinner: TBD AGENDA: THURSDAY, MAY 2, 2019 08:20 - 08:30 Day 3 Welcome Session 3A: Climate and Non-stationarity Session Chair: Elena Yegorova, NRC/RES 08:30 - 09:00 KEYNOTE: Hydroclimatic Extremes Trends and Projections: A View 3A-1 from the Fourth National Climate Assessment Kenneth Kunkel*, North Carolina State University 09:00 - 09:25 Regional Climate Change Projections: Potential Impacts to Nuclear 3A-2 Facilities L. Ruby Leung* & Rajiv Prasad, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory 09:25 - 09:50 Role of Climate Change/Variability in the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane 3A-3 Season Young-Kwon Lim*, GSFC/NASA 9:50 - 10:30 Climate Panel Discussion 3A-4 10:30 - 10:50 BREAK v.032119 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 4
4th Annual Probabilistic Flood Hazard Assessment Workshop Session 3B: Flood Protection and Plant Response Session Chair: Thomas Aird, NRC/RES 10:50 - 11:15 Qualitative Risk Ranking Process of External Flood Penetration Seals 3B-1 Marko Randelovic*, EPRI 11:15- 11:40 Results of Performance of Flood-Rated Penetration Seals Tests 3B-2 William (Mark) Cummings, Fisher Engineering, Inc. (formerly Fire Risk Management, Inc.)
11:40- 1205 Modeling Overtopping Erosion Tests of Zoned Rockfill Embankments 3B-3 Tony Wahl^, U.S. Bureau of Reclamation 12:05- 12:45 Flood Protection and Plant Response Panel Discussion 3B-4 12:45 - 13:45 LUNCH Session 3C: Towards External Flooding PRA Session Chair: Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES 13:45 - 14:10 External Flooding PRA Walkdown Guidance 3C-1 Marko Randelovic*, EPRI, Andrew Miller*, Jensen Hughes (tentative) 14:10 - 14:35 Updates on the Revision and Expansion of the External Flooding PRA 3C-2 Standard Michelle(Shelby) Bensi*, University of Maryland (tentative) 14:35 - 15:00 Update on ANS-2.8: Probabilistic Evaluation of External Flood 3C-3 Hazards for Nuclear Facilities Ray Schneider, Westinghouse (tentative) 15:00 - 15:25 Qualitative PRA Insights from Operational Events of External Floods 3C-4 and Other Storm-Related Hazards Nathan Siu, Ian Gifford*, Zeechung (Gary) Wang, Meredith Carr and Joseph Kanney, NRC/RES 15:25 - 16:05 Towards External Flooding PRA Discussion Panel 3C-5 16:05 - 16:25 Wrap-up Discussion v.032119 DRAFT agenda only. Subject to change. 5