ML103620051

Exhibit 48-By 2050 Solar Power Could End U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil and Slash Greenhouse Gas Emissions

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Issue date:	12/28/2010
From:	Fthenakis V, Mason J, Zweibel K Scientific American
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H igh prices for gasoline and home heating oil are here to stay.

The U.S. is at war in the Middle East at least in part to protect its foreign oil interests. And as China, India and other nations rapidly increase their demand for fossil fuels, future "ghting over energy looms large. In the meantime, power plants that burn coal, oil and natural gas, as well as vehicles everywhere, continue to pour millions of tons of pollutants and greenhouse gases into the atmo-sphere annually, threatening the planet.

Well-meaning scientists, engineers, economists and politicians have proposed various steps that could slightly reduce fossil-fuel use and emissions. These steps are not enough. The U.S. needs a bold plan to free itself from fossil fuels. Our analysis convinces us that a massive switch to solar power is the logical answer.

Solar energys potential is off the chart. The energy in sunlight striking the earth for 40 minutes is equivalent to global energy con-sumption for a year. The U.S. is lucky to be endowed with a vast re-source; at least 250,000 square miles of land in the Southwest alone are suitable for constructing solar power plants, and that land receives more than 4,500 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) of solar ra-diation a year. Converting only 2.5 percent of that radiation into elec-tricity would match the nations total energy consumption in 2006.

To convert the country to solar power, huge tracts of land would have to be covered with photovoltaic panels and solar heating troughs. A direct-current (DC) transmission backbone would also have to be erected to send that energy ef"ciently across the nation.

The technology is ready. On the following pages we present a grand plan that could provide 69 percent of the U.S.s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy (which includes transportation) with solar power by 2050. We project that this energy could be sold to consumers at rates equivalent to todays rates for conventional pow-er sources, about "ve cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh). If wind, bio-mass and geothermal sources were also developed, renewable ener-gy could provide 100 percent of the nations electricity and 90 per-cent of its energy by 2100.

The federal government would have to invest more than $400 bil-lion over the next 40 years to complete the 2050 plan. That invest-ment is substantial, but the payoff is greater. Solar plants consume little or no fuel, saving billions of dollars year after year. The infra-structure would displace 300 large coal-"red power plants and 300 more large natural gas plants and all the fuels they consume. The plan would effectively eliminate all imported oil, fundamentally cut-ting U.S. trade de"cits and easing political tension in the Middle East BIG IDEAS KEY CONCEPTS A massive switch from coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants to so-lar power plants could sup-ply 69 percent of the U.S.s electricity and 35 percent of its total energy by 2050.

A vast area of photovoltaic cells would have to be erected in the Southwest.

Excess daytime energy would be stored as com-pressed air in underground caverns to be tapped dur-ing nighttime hours.

Large solar concentrator power plants would be built as well.

A new direct-current pow-er transmission backbone would deliver solar elec-tricity across the country.

But $420 billion in subsi-dies from 2011 to 2050 would be required to fund the infrastructure and make it cost-competitive.

The Editors By 2050 solar power could end U.S. dependence on foreign oil and slash greenhouse gas emissions By Ken Zweibel, James Mason and Vasilis Fthenakis 64 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN SCHOTT AG/COMMERCIAL HANDOUT/EPA/CORBIS A

Solar Grand Plan

and elsewhere. Because solar technologies are almost pollution-free, the plan would also re-duce greenhouse gas emissions from power plants by 1.7 billion tons a year, and another 1.9 billion tons from gasoline vehicles would be dis-placed by plug-in hybrids refueled by the solar power grid. In 2050 U.S. carbon dioxide emis-sions would be 62 percent below 2005 levels, putting a major brake on global warming.

Photovoltaic Farms In the past few years the cost to produce photo-voltaic cells and modules has dropped signi"-

cantly, opening the way for large-scale deploy-ment. Various cell types exist, but the least expen-sive modules today are thin films made of cadmium telluride. To provide electricity at six cents per kWh by 2020, cadmium telluride mod-ules would have to convert electricity with 14 percent ef"ciency, and systems would have to be installed at $1.20 per watt of capacity. Current modules have 10 percent efficiency and an installed system cost of about $4 per watt. Prog-ress is clearly needed, but the technology is advancing quickly; commercial ef"ciencies have risen from 9 to 10 percent in the past 12 months.

It is worth noting, too, that as modules improve, rooftop photovoltaics will become more cost-competitive for homeowners, reducing daytime electricity demand.

In our plan, by 2050 photovoltaic technology would provide almost 3,000 gigawatts (GW), or billions of watts, of power. Some 30,000 square miles of photovoltaic arrays would have to be erected. Although this area may sound enor-mous, installations already in place indicate that the land required for each gigawatt-hour of so-lar energy produced in the Southwest is less than that needed for a coal-powered plant when fac-toring in land for coal mining. Studies by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory in Golden, Colo., show that more than enough land in the Southwest is available without re-quiring use of environmentally sensitive areas, population centers or difficult terrain. Jack Lavelle, a spokesperson for Arizonas Depart-ment of Water Conservation, has noted that more than 80 percent of his states land is not privately owned and that Arizona is very inter-ested in developing its solar potential. The be-nign nature of photovoltaic plants (including no water consumption) should keep environmental concerns to a minimum.

The main progress required, then, is to raise module ef"ciency to 14 percent. Although the 2007 2050 (Existing energy path) 2050 (Solar grand plan)

OIL Billion barrels NATURAL GAS Trillion cubic feet COAL Billion tons CARBON DIOXIDE Billion tons 6.9 22.2 1.2 ANNUAL U.S. FUEL CONSUMPTION 6.1 U.S. EMISSIONS 10.9 2.7 35.4 11.4 1.9 0.5 9.4 2.3 U.S. Plan for 2050 Solar Power Provides...

69%

of electricity 35%

of total energy 2007 2050 (Existing energy path) 2050 (Solar grand plan)

OIL Billion barrels NATURAL GAS Trillion cubic feet COAL Billion tons CARBON DIOXIDE Billion tons 6.9 22.2 1.2 ANNUAL U.S. FUEL CONSUMPTION 6.1 U.S. EMISSIONS 10.9 2.7 35.4 11.4 1.9 0.5 9.4 2.3 B

y 2050 vast photovoltaic arrays in the Southwest would supply electricity instead of fossil-fueled power plants and would also power a widespread conversion to plug-in electric vehi-cles. Excess energy would be stored as compressed air in under-ground caverns. Large arrays that concentrate sunlight to heat water would also supply electricity. A new high-voltage, direct-cur-rent transmission backbone would carry power to regional markets nationwide. The technologies and factors critical to their success are summarized at the right, along with the extent to which the technologies must be deployed by 2050. The plan would substan-tially cut the countrys consumption of fossil fuels and its emission of greenhouse gases (below). We have assumed a 1 percent annual growth in net energy demand. And we have anticipated improve-ments in solar technologies forecasted only until 2020, with no fur-ther gains beyond that date.

K.Z., J.M. and V.F.

66 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN JEN CHRISTIANSEN (graph); KENN BROWN AND CHRIS WREN Mondolithic Studios (illustration)

TECHNOLOGY PHOTOVOLTAICS COMPRESSED-AIR ENERGY STORAGE (with photovoltaic electricity)

CONCENTRATED SOLAR POWER DC TRANSMISSION

CRITICAL FACTOR 2007 2050 ADVANCES NEEDED Land area 10 sq miles 30,000 sq miles Policies to develop large public land areas Thin-"lm module ef"ciency 10%

14%

More transparent materials to improve light transmission; more densely doped layers to increase voltage; larger modules to reduce inactive area Installed cost

$4/W

$1.20/W Improvements in module ef"ciency; gains from volume production Electricity price 16¢/kWh 5¢/kWh Follows from lower installed cost Total capacity 0.5 GW 2,940 GW National energy plan built around solar power Volume 0

535 billion cu ft Coordination of site development with natural gas industry Installed cost

$5.80/W

$3.90/W Economies of scale; decreasing photovoltaic electricity prices Electricity price 20¢/kWh 9¢/kWh Follows from lower installed cost Total capacity 0.1 GW 558 GW National energy plan Land area 10 sq miles 16,000 sq miles Policies to develop large public land areas Solar-to-electric ef"ciency 13%

17%

Fluids that transfer heat more effectively Installed cost

$5.30/W

$3.70/W Single-tank thermal storage systems; economies of scale Electricity price 18¢/kWh 9¢/kWh Follows from lower installed cost Total capacity 0.5 GW 558 GW National energy plan Length 500 miles 100,000-500,000 miles New high-voltage DC grid from Southwest to rest of country

68 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN January 2008 ef"ciencies of commercial modules will never reach those of solar cells in the laboratory, cad-mium telluride cells at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory are now up to 16.5 percent and rising. At least one manufacturer, First So-lar in Perrysburg, Ohio, increased module ef"-

ciency from 6 to 10 percent from 2005 to 2007 and is reaching for 11.5 percent by 2010.

Pressurized Caverns The great limiting factor of solar power, of course, is that it generates little electricity when skies are cloudy and none at night. Excess pow-er must therefore be produced during sunny hours and stored for use during dark hours.

Most energy storage systems such as batteries are expensive or inef"cient.

Compressed-air energy storage has emerged as a successful alternative. Electricity from pho-tovoltaic plants compresses air and pumps it into vacant underground caverns, abandoned mines, aquifers and depleted natural gas wells.

The pressurized air is released on demand to turn a turbine that generates electricity, aided by burning small amounts of natural gas. Com-pressed-air energy storage plants have been op-erating reliably in Huntorf, Germany, since 1978 and in McIntosh, Ala., since 1991. The tur-bines burn only 40 percent of the natural gas they would if they were fueled by natural gas alone, and better heat recovery technology would lower that "gure to 30 percent.

Studies by the Electric Power Research Insti-tute in Palo Alto, Calif., indicate that the cost of compressed-air energy storage today is about half that of lead-acid batteries. The research in-dicates that these facilities would add three or four cents per kWh to photovoltaic generation, bringing the total 2020 cost to eight or nine cents per kWh.

Electricity from photovoltaic farms in the Southwest would be sent over high-voltage DC transmission lines to compressed-air storage facilities throughout the country, where tur-bines would generate electricity year-round.

The key is to "nd adequate sites. Mapping by the natural gas industry and the Electric Power Research Institute shows that suitable geologic formations exist in 75 percent of the country, often close to metropolitan areas. Indeed, a compressed-air energy storage system would look similar to the U.S. natural gas storage sys-tem. The industry stores eight trillion cubic feet of gas in 400 underground reservoirs. By 2050 our plan would require 535 billion cubic feet of storage, with air pressurized at 1,100 pounds per square inch. Although development will be a challenge, plenty of reservoirs are available, By 2100 renewable energy could generate 100 percent of the U.S.s electricity and more than 90 percent of its energy.

Photovoltaics In the 2050 plan vast photovoltaic farms would cover 30,000 square miles of otherwise barren land in the Southwest. They would resemble Tucson Electric Power Companys 4.6-megawatt plant in Springerville, Ariz., which began in 2000 (left). In such farms, many photovoltaic cells are interconnect-ed on one module, and modules are wired together to form an array (right). The direct current from each array "ows to a trans-former that sends it along high-voltage lines to the power grid. In a thin-"lm cell (inset), the energy of incoming photons knocks loose electrons in the cadmium telluride layer; they cross a junction, "ow to the top conductive layer and then "ow around to the back conduc-tive layer, creating current.

TUCSON ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY

www.SciAm.com SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 69 PAYOFFS Foreign oil dependence cut from 60 to 0 percent Global tensions eased and military costs lowered Massive trade de" cit reduced signi" cantly Greenhouse gas emissions slashed Domestic jobs increased and it would be reasonable for the natural gas industry to invest in such a network.

Hot Salt Another technology that would supply perhaps one " fth of the solar energy in our vision is known as concentrated solar power. In this design, long, metallic mirrors focus sunlight onto a pipe " lled with " uid, heating the " uid like a huge magnifying glass might. The hot " u-id runs through a heat exchanger, producing steam that turns a turbine.

For energy storage, the pipes run into a large, insulated tank " lled with molten salt, which re-tains heat ef" ciently. Heat is extracted at night, creating steam. The molten salt does slowly cool, however, so the energy stored must be tapped within a day.

Nine concentrated solar power plants with a total capacity of 354 megawatts (MW) have been generating electricity reliably for years in the U.S. A new 64-MW plant in Nevada came online in March 2007. These plants, however, do not have heat storage. The " rst commercial installation to incorporate ita 50-MW plant with seven hours of molten salt storageis being constructed in Spain, and others are be-ing designed around the world. For our plan, 16 hours1.851852e-4 days <br />0.00444 hours <br />2.645503e-5 weeks <br />6.088e-6 months <br /> of storage would be needed so that electricity could be generated 24 hours2.777778e-4 days <br />0.00667 hours <br />3.968254e-5 weeks <br />9.132e-6 months <br /> a day.

Existing plants prove that concentrated solar power is practical, but costs must decrease.

Economies of scale and continued research would help. In 2006 a report by the Solar Task Force of the Western Governors Association concluded that concentrated solar power could provide electricity at 10 cents per kWh or less by 2015 if 4 GW of plants were constructed. Find-ing ways to boost the temperature of heat ex-changer " uids would raise operating ef" ciency, Power conditioner and transformer Photovoltaic array SOURCE FOR MAP: COURTESY OF NATIONAL RENEWABLE ENERGY LABORATORY; DON FOLEY (illustrations)

Electricity delivered to the grid Junction box Glass Conductive metal Cadmium telluride semiconductor Sunlight (photons)

Cadmium sul" de semiconductor Junction Transparent conductive layer Current Electron " ow creates current 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 Solar radiation is abundant in the U.S.,

especially the Southwest. The 46,000 square miles of solar arrays (white circles) required by the grand plan could be distributed in various ways; one option is shown here to scale.

Plentiful Resource Average Daily Total Radiation (kWh/sq m/day)

NOTE: ALASKA AND HAWAII NOT SHOWN TO SCALE

70 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN January 2008 Stage One: Present to 2020 We have given considerable thought to how the solar grand plan can be deployed. We foresee two distinct stages. The "rst, from now until 2020, must make solar competitive at the mass-production level. This stage will require the government to guarantee 30-year loans, agree to purchase power and provide price-support subsidies. The annual aid package would rise steadily from 2011 to 2020. At that time, the solar technologies would compete on their own merits. The cumulative subsidy would total

$420 billion (we will explain later how to pay this bill).

About 84 GW of photovoltaics and concen-trated solar power plants would be built by 2020. In parallel, the DC transmission system would be laid. It would expand via existing rights-of-way along interstate highway corri-dors, minimizing land-acquisition and regula-tory hurdles. This backbone would reach major markets in Phoenix, Las Vegas, Los Angeles and San Diego to the west and San Antonio, Dallas, Houston, New Orleans, Birmingham, Ala., Tampa, Fla., and Atlanta to the east.

Building 1.5 GW of photovoltaics and 1.5 GW of concentrated solar power annually in the "rst "ve years would stimulate many manufac-turers to scale up. In the next "ve years, annual too. Engineers are also investigating how to use molten salt itself as the heat-transfer "uid, re-ducing heat losses as well as capital costs. Salt is corrosive, however, so more resilient piping systems are needed.

Concentrated solar power and photovoltaics represent two different technology paths. Nei-ther is fully developed, so our plan brings them both to large-scale deployment by 2020, giving them time to mature. Various combinations of solar technologies might also evolve to meet de-mand economically. As installations expand, engineers and accountants can evaluate the pros and cons, and investors may decide to support one technology more than another.

Direct Current, Too The geography of solar power is obviously dif-ferent from the nations current supply scheme.

Today coal, oil, natural gas and nuclear power plants dot the landscape, built relatively close to where power is needed. Most of the coun-trys solar generation would stand in the South-west. The existing system of alternating-cur-rent (AC) power lines is not robust enough to carry power from these centers to consumers everywhere and would lose too much energy over long hauls. A new high-voltage, direct-current (HVDC) power transmission back-bone would have to be built.

Studies by Oak Ridge National Laboratory indicate that long-distance HVDC lines lose far less energy than AC lines do over equivalent spans. The backbone would radiate from the Southwest toward the nations borders. The lines would terminate at converter stations where the power would be switched to AC and sent along existing regional transmission lines that supply customers.

The AC system is also simply out of capacity, leading to noted shortages in California and other regions; DC lines are cheaper to build and require less land area than equivalent AC lines. About 500 miles of HVDC lines operate in the U.S. today and have proved reliable and ef"cient. No major technical advances seem to be needed, but more experience would help re-

"ne operations. The Southwest Power Pool of Texas is designing an integrated system of DC and AC transmission to enable development of 10 GW of wind power in western Texas. And TransCanada, Inc., is proposing 2,200 miles of HVDC lines to carry wind energy from Mon-tana and Wyoming south to Las Vegas and beyond.

PINCH POINTS Subsidies totaling $420 billion through 2050 Political leadership needed to raise the subsidy, possibly with a carbon tax New high-voltage, direct-current electric transmission system built pro"tably by private carriers POWERSOUTH ENERGY COOPERATIVE

www.SciAm.com SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 71 construction would rise to 5 GW apiece, help-ing " rms optimize production lines. As a result, solar electricity would fall toward six cents per kWh. This implementation schedule is realistic; more than 5 GW of nuclear power plants were built in the U.S. each year from 1972 to 1987.

What is more, solar systems can be manufac-tured and installed at much faster rates than conventional power plants because of their straightforward design and relative lack of en-vironmental and safety complications.

Stage Two: 2020 to 2050 It is paramount that major market incentives remain in effect through 2020, to set the stage for self-sustained growth thereafter. In extend-ing our model to 2050, we have been conserva-tive. We do not include any technological or cost improvements beyond 2020. We also assume that energy demand will grow nation-ally by 1 percent a year. In this scenario, by 2050 solar power plants will supply 69 percent of U.S. electricity and 35 percent of total U.S.

energy. This quantity includes enough to supply all the electricity consumed by 344 million plug-in hybrid vehicles, which would displace their gasoline counterparts, key to reducing depen-dence on foreign oil and to mitigating green-house gas emissions. Some three million new domestic jobsnotably in manufacturing solar componentswould be created, which is sever-al times the number of U.S. jobs that would be lost in the then dwindling fossil-fuel industries.

The huge reduction in imported oil would lower trade balance payments by $300 billion a year, assuming a crude oil price of $60 a barrel (average prices were higher in 2007). Once solar power plants are installed, they must be main-tained and repaired, but the price of sunlight is forever free, duplicating those fuel savings year after year. Moreover, the solar investment would enhance national energy security, reduce " nan-cial burdens on the military, and greatly de-crease the societal costs of pollution and global warming, from human health problems to the ruining of coastlines and farmlands.

Ironically, the solar grand plan would lower energy consumption. Even with 1 percent annu-al growth in demand, the 100 quadrillion Btu consumed in 2006 would fall to 93 quadrillion Btu by 2050. This unusual offset arises because a good deal of energy is consumed to extract and process fossil fuels, and more is wasted in burn-ing them and controlling their emissions.

To meet the 2050 projection, 46,000 square miles of land would be needed for photovoltaic and concentrated solar power installations. That area is large, and yet it covers just 19 percent of

[THE AUTHORS]

Ken Zweibel, James Mason and Vasilis Fthenakis met a decade ago while working on life-cycle studies of photovoltaics. Zweibel is president of PrimeStar Solar in Golden, Colo., and for 15 years was manager of the National Renew-able Energy Laboratorys Thin-Film PV Partnership. Mason is director of the Solar Energy Campaign and the Hydrogen Research Institute in Farmingdale, N.Y. Fthenakis is head of the Photovoltaic Environ-mental Research Center at Brook-haven National Laboratory and is a professor in and director of Columbia Universitys Center for Life Cycle Analysis.

Underground Storage Excess electricity produced during the day by photovoltaic farms would be sent over power lines to compressed-air energy storage sites close to cities. At night the sites would generate power for consumers. Such technology is al-ready available; the PowerSouth Energy Cooperatives plant in Mc-Intosh, Ala. (left), has operated since 1991 (the white pipe sends air underground). In these designs, incoming electricity runs motors and compressors that pressurize air and send it into vacant caverns, mines or aquifers (right). When the air is released, it is heated by burn-ing small amounts of natural gas; the hot, expanding gases turn turbines that generate electricity.

Electricity from photovoltaic farm Motor High-pressure turbine Cavern Air pumped into cavern for storage Compressors Electricity to the grid Air released to generate electricity Low-pressure turbine Natural gas-fueled combustion chamber DON FOLEY Generator Recuperator (pre-heats air)

Exhaust heat Water-cooling tower Brilliant?

Far-fetched?

For a discussion with the authors about the solar grand plan, please visit our Community page at http://science-community.SciAm.com; click on Discussions, then Technology.

For a discussion with

72 SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN January 2008 the suitable Southwest land. Most of that land is barren; there is no competing use value. And the land will not be polluted. We have assumed that only 10 percent of the solar capacity in 2050 will come from distributed photovoltaic installa-tionsthose on rooftops or commercial lots throughout the country. But as prices drop, these applications could play a bigger role.

2050 and Beyond Although it is not possible to project with any exactitude 50 or more years into the future, as an exercise to demonstrate the full potential of solar energy we constructed a scenario for 2100.

By that time, based on our plan, total energy demand (including transportation) is projected to be 140 quadrillion Btu, with seven times todays electric generating capacity.

To be conservative, again, we estimated how much solar plant capacity would be needed un-der the historical worst-case solar radiation conditions for the Southwest, which occurred during the winter of 1982-1983 and in 1992 and 1993 following the Mount Pinatubo erup-tion, according to National Solar Radiation Data Base records from 1961 to 2005. And again, we did not assume any further techno-logical and cost improvements beyond 2020, even though it is nearly certain that in 80 years ongoing research would improve solar ef"cien-cy, cost and storage.

Under these assumptions, U.S. energy de-mand could be ful"lled with the following capac-ities: 2.9 terawatts (TW) of photovoltaic power going directly to the grid and another 7.5 TW dedicated to compressed-air storage; 2.3 TW of concentrated solar power plants; and 1.3 TW of distributed photovoltaic installations. Supply would be rounded out with 1 TW of wind farms, 0.2 TW of geothermal power plants and 0.25 TW of biomass-based production for fuels. The model includes 0.5 TW of geothermal heat pumps for direct building heating and cooling.

The solar systems would require 165,000 square miles of land, still less than the suitable available area in the Southwest.

In 2100 this renewable portfolio could gen-erate 100 percent of all U.S. electricity and more than 90 percent of total U.S. energy. In the spring and summer, the solar infrastructure would produce enough hydrogen to meet more than 90 percent of all transportation fuel de-mand and would replace the small natural gas supply used to aid compressed-air turbines.

Adding 48 billion gallons of biofuel would cov-er the rest of transportation energy. Energy-re-lated carbon dioxide emissions would be re-duced 92 percent below 2005 levels.

Although

$420 billion is substantial, it is less than the U.S. Farm Price Support program.

Concentrated Solar Large concentrated solar power plants would complement photo-voltaic farms in the Southwest. The Kramer Junction plant in Californias Mojave Desert (left), using technol-ogy from Solel in Beit Shemesh, Isra-el, has been operating since 1989.

Metallic parabolic mirrors focus sun-light on a pipe, heating "uid such as ethylene glycol inside (right). The mirrors rotate to track the sun. The hot pipes run alongside a second loop inside a heat exchanger that contains water, turning it to steam that drives a turbine. Future plants could also send the hot "uid through a holding tank, heating molten salt; that reservoir would retain heat that could be tapped at night for the heat exchanger.

COURTESY OF NREL

www.SciAm.com SCIENTIFIC AMERICAN 73 Who Pays?

Our model is not an austerity plan, because it includes a 1 percent annual increase in demand, which would sustain lifestyles similar to those today with expected ef" ciency improvements in energy generation and use. Perhaps the biggest question is how to pay for a $420-billion over-haul of the nations energy infrastructure. One of the most common ideas is a carbon tax. The International Energy Agency suggests that a car-bon tax of $40 to $90 per ton of coal will be required to induce electricity generators to adopt carbon capture and storage systems to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. This tax is equivalent to raising the price of electricity by one to two cents per kWh. But our plan is less expensive. The

$420 billion could be generated with a carbon tax of 0.5 cent per kWh. Given that electricity today generally sells for six to 10 cents per kWh, adding 0.5 cent per kWh seems reasonable.

Congress could establish the " nancial incen-tives by adopting a national renewable energy plan. Consider the U.S. Farm Price Support pro-gram, which has been justi" ed in terms of na-tional security. A solar price support program would secure the nations energy future, vital to the countrys long-term health. Subsidies would be gradually deployed from 2011 to 2020. With a standard 30-year payoff interval, the subsi-dies would end from 2041 to 2050. The HVDC transmission companies would not have to be subsidized, because they would " nance con-struction of lines and converter stations just as they now " nance AC lines, earning revenues by delivering electricity.

Although $420 billion is substantial, the an-nual expense would be less than the current U.S.

Farm Price Support program. It is also less than the tax subsidies that have been levied to build the countrys high-speed telecommunications infrastructure over the past 35 years. And it frees the U.S. from policy and budget issues driven by international energy con" icts.

Without subsidies, the solar grand plan is im-possible. Other countries have reached similar conclusions: Japan is already building a large, subsidized solar infrastructure, and Germany has embarked on a nationwide program. Al-though the investment is high, it is important to remember that the energy source, sunlight, is free.

There are no annual fuel or pollution-control costs like those for coal, oil or nuclear power, and only a slight cost for natural gas in compressed-air systems, although hydrogen or biofuels could displace that, too. When fuel savings are factored in, the cost of solar would be a bargain in coming decades. But we cannot wait un-til then to begin scaling up.

Critics have raised other con-cerns, such as whether material constraints could sti" e large-scale installation. With rapid deploy-ment, temporary shortages are possible. But several types of cells exist that use different material com-binations. Better processing and recy-cling are also reducing the amount of ma-terials that cells require. And in the long term, old solar cells can largely be recycled into new solar cells, changing our energy supply picture from depletable fuels to recyclable materials.

The greatest obstacle to implementing a re-newable U.S. energy system is not technology or money, however. It is the lack of public awareness that solar power is a practical alter-nativeand one that can fuel transportation as well. Forward-looking thinkers should try to inspire U.S. citizens, and their political and sci-enti" c leaders, about solar powers incredible potential. Once Americans realize that poten-tial, we believe the desire for energy self-suf" -

ciency and the need to reduce carbon dioxide emissions will prompt them to adopt a nation-al solar plan.

g MORE TO EXPLORE The Terawatt Challenge for Thin Film Photovoltaic. Ken Zweibel in Thin Film Solar Cells: Fabrication, Characterization and Applications.

Edited by Jef Poortmans and Vladimir Arkhipov. John Wiley &

Sons, 2006.

Energy Autonomy: The Economic, Social and Technological Case for Renewable Energy. Hermann Scheer. Earthscan Publications, 2007.

Center for Life Cycle Analysis, Columbia University:

www.clca.columbia.edu The National Solar Radiation Data Base. National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2007.

http://rredc.nrel.gov/solar/old_

data/nsrdb The U.S. Department of Energy Solar America Initiative:

www1.eere.energy.gov/solar/

solar_america DON FOLEY displace that, too. When fuel savings are factored in, the cost of solar would be a bargain in coming decades. But we cannot wait un-til then to begin scaling up.

cerns, such as whether material constraints could sti" e large-scale installation. With rapid deploy-ment, temporary shortages are possible. But several types of cells exist that use different material com-binations. Better processing and recy-cling are also reducing the amount of ma-terials that cells require. And in the long term, Future plan:

heat-holding tank (molten salt)

Heat exchanger Parabolic trough Steam turbine Superheated water " ow Return water " ow Generator Electricity to the grid Sunlight Pipe

" lled with ethylene glycol Ethylene glycol " ow Steam condensation unit