ML13045A857: Difference between revisions

From kanterella
Jump to navigation Jump to search
(Created page by program invented by StriderTol)
(StriderTol Bot change)
 
Line 16: Line 16:


=Text=
=Text=
{{#Wiki_filter:NYSR00211 Revised: February 14, 2013 SITE SPECIFIC MACCS2 INPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1 December 1, 2009
{{#Wiki_filter:SITE SPECIFIC MACCS2 INPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1 December 1, 2009 NYSR00211 Revised: February 14, 2013


SITE SPECIFIC MACCS2 INPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1 Prepared for Entergy Nuclear Northeast White Plains, NY Prepared by Enercon Services, Inc.
SITE SPECIFIC MACCS2 INPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1 Prepared for Entergy Nuclear Northeast White Plains, NY Prepared by Enercon Services, Inc.
6525 N. Meridian Suite 400 Oklahoma City, OK 73116 December 1, 2009
6525 N. Meridian Suite 400 Oklahoma City, OK 73116 December 1, 2009


Revision 1                                                                       December 1, 2009
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 1-1


==1.0 INTRODUCTION==
==1.0 INTRODUCTION==
The Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMAs) for the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) uses the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2),
The Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMAs) for the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) uses the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2),
for estimating the health and economic consequences of severe accidents. Should a severe reactor accident occur, downwind populations, buildings, and crops would be exposed to radioactive materials. MACCS2 estimates the range and probability of the health effects and the economic costs and losses that would result from such an accident.
for estimating the health and economic consequences of severe accidents. Should a severe reactor accident occur, downwind populations, buildings, and crops would be exposed to radioactive materials. MACCS2 estimates the range and probability of the health effects and the economic costs and losses that would result from such an accident.
Line 31: Line 30:
Census 2000 Line Data via ESRI (Reference 1.2) for fourteen counties in New York, ten counties in New Jersey, three counties in Connecticut, and one county in Pennsylvania within the IPEC 50-mile buffer were used as base map layers (Figure 1.1, Table 1.1).
Census 2000 Line Data via ESRI (Reference 1.2) for fourteen counties in New York, ten counties in New Jersey, three counties in Connecticut, and one county in Pennsylvania within the IPEC 50-mile buffer were used as base map layers (Figure 1.1, Table 1.1).
Data input into MACCS2 code include:
Data input into MACCS2 code include:
: 1.     Population in 2035-at the end of the license renewal period for 240 spatial elements.
: 1.
: 2.     Land Fraction-proportion of each of the 240 spatial elements that is land, not water.
Population in 2035-at the end of the license renewal period for 240 spatial elements.
: 3.     Watershed Index-indication of whether spatial element is drained by rivers or is a lake/water body.
: 2.
: 4.     Regional Economic Data-estimation of amount of farming and economic activities.
Land Fraction-proportion of each of the 240 spatial elements that is land, not water.
: 5.     Agricultural Data-crop types, growing season, and percent of farmland for each crop.
: 3.
1-1
Watershed Index-indication of whether spatial element is drained by rivers or is a lake/water body.
: 4.
Regional Economic Data-estimation of amount of farming and economic activities.
: 5.
Agricultural Data-crop types, growing season, and percent of farmland for each crop.  


Revision 1                                                 December 1, 2009 Figure 1.1 US counties within 50-miles of IPEC.
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 1-2 Figure 1.1 US counties within 50-miles of IPEC.  
1-2


Revision 1                                                                         December 1, 2009 Table 1.1 Counties within 50-miles of IPEC.
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 1-3 Table 1.1 Counties within 50-miles of IPEC.
State/County   Land Area (square miles) Percent within 50-mile zone Connecticut Fairfield                       620                         100.0 Litchfield                       907                           41.5 New Haven                         595                           32.9 New Jersey Bergen                           231                         100.0 Essex                           122                         100.0 Hudson                           44                         100.0 Middlesex                         306                           1.8 Morris                         451                           80.8 Passaic                         185                         100.0 Somerset                         304                           4.5 Sussex                           515                           93.9 Union                           102                           92.9 Warren                           356                           0.5 New York Bronx                           41                         100.0 Dutchess                         793                           88.9 Kings                           67                         100.0 Nassau                           269                           97.9 New York                           23                         100.0 Orange                           812                         100.0 Putnam                           226                         100.0 Queens                           106                         100.0 Richmond                           56                           65.4 Rockland                         173                         100.0 Suffolk                         895                           21.3 Sullivan                         967                           36.3 Ulster                         1123                           58.1 Westchester                       430                         100.0 Pennsylvania Pike                           540                           18.7 1-3
State/County Land Area (square miles)
Percent within 50-mile zone Connecticut Fairfield 620 100.0 Litchfield 907 41.5 New Haven 595 32.9 New Jersey Bergen 231 100.0 Essex 122 100.0 Hudson 44 100.0 Middlesex 306 1.8 Morris 451 80.8 Passaic 185 100.0 Somerset 304 4.5 Sussex 515 93.9 Union 102 92.9 Warren 356 0.5 New York Bronx 41 100.0 Dutchess 793 88.9 Kings 67 100.0 Nassau 269 97.9 New York 23 100.0 Orange 812 100.0 Putnam 226 100.0 Queens 106 100.0 Richmond 56 65.4 Rockland 173 100.0 Suffolk 895 21.3 Sullivan 967 36.3 Ulster 1123 58.1 Westchester 430 100.0 Pennsylvania Pike 540 18.7


Revision 1                                                                           December 1, 2009 County       2000       2004       2010     2015       2020       2025       2030       2035 New York Bronx         1,332,650 1,365,536 1,425,170 1,469,206 1,511,322   1,550,580 1,586,661 1,634,750 Dutchess       280,150   293,395   293,520   299,468   304,815     309,007   311,809   319,391 Kings         2,465,326 2,475,290 2,531,424 2,554,579 2,571,602   2,580,325 2,580,903 2,618,418 Nassau       1,334,544 1,339,641 1,312,166 1,300,125 1,290,328   1,278,213 1,260,336 1,251,644 New York     1,537,195 1,562,723 1,587,098 1,600,353 1,606,718   1,605,202 1,595,353 1,570,657 Orange         341,367   370,352   370,521   386,015   401,414     415,973   429,580   445,234 Putnam           95,745   100,570   103,786   107,436   110,891     113,917   116,428   120,738 Queens       2,229,379 2,237,216 2,452,109 2,567,898 2,685,206   2,799,559 2,908,709 3,024,717 Richmond       443,728   463,314   505,844   537,493   569,636     600,954   630,683   662,838 Rockland       286,753   293,626   291,706   291,618   290,732     288,593   284,768   278,799 Suffolk       1,419,369 1,475,488 1,456,195 1,466,808 1,474,746   1,476,069 1,468,072 1,490,766 Sullivan         73,966     76,110     79,522   82,524     85,512     88,362     91,092     94,055 Ulster         177,749   181,779   190,389   197,153   203,871     210,096   215,719   222,655 Westchester     923,459   942,444   926,798   925,714   924,149     919,864   911,278   914,934 Pennsylvania Pike             46,302     54,117     60,059   69,447     79,170                         103,437 2.2     Projected Transient Population State tourism agencies were contacted to obtain the most recent tourist (transient) information (Table 2.2). Tourist information for 2004 was not available for Pennsylvania therefore 2003 data was incorporated and was assumed to remain constant for 2004. Fine geographical level tourism data (e.g. tourist per year per county) is not collected by states within 50-mile of IPEC. Connecticut and New Jersey only collect this data at a state level. New York breaks state level visitation numbers into five counties within New York City metropolitan area (defined as Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond counties) and the rest of New York state and Pennsylvania reports tourist per year at a regional level, (Pocono region which includes Carbon, Monroe, Pike and Wayne counties is the relevant region).
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-2 County 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 New York Bronx 1,332,650 1,365,536 1,425,170 1,469,206 1,511,322 1,550,580 1,586,661 1,634,750 Dutchess 280,150 293,395 293,520 299,468 304,815 309,007 311,809 319,391 Kings 2,465,326 2,475,290 2,531,424 2,554,579 2,571,602 2,580,325 2,580,903 2,618,418 Nassau 1,334,544 1,339,641 1,312,166 1,300,125 1,290,328 1,278,213 1,260,336 1,251,644 New York 1,537,195 1,562,723 1,587,098 1,600,353 1,606,718 1,605,202 1,595,353 1,570,657 Orange 341,367 370,352 370,521 386,015 401,414 415,973 429,580 445,234 Putnam 95,745 100,570 103,786 107,436 110,891 113,917 116,428 120,738 Queens 2,229,379 2,237,216 2,452,109 2,567,898 2,685,206 2,799,559 2,908,709 3,024,717 Richmond 443,728 463,314 505,844 537,493 569,636 600,954 630,683 662,838 Rockland 286,753 293,626 291,706 291,618 290,732 288,593 284,768 278,799 Suffolk 1,419,369 1,475,488 1,456,195 1,466,808 1,474,746 1,476,069 1,468,072 1,490,766 Sullivan 73,966 76,110 79,522 82,524 85,512 88,362 91,092 94,055 Ulster 177,749 181,779 190,389 197,153 203,871 210,096 215,719 222,655 Westchester 923,459 942,444 926,798 925,714 924,149 919,864 911,278 914,934 Pennsylvania Pike 46,302 54,117 60,059 69,447 79,170 103,437 2.2 Projected Transient Population State tourism agencies were contacted to obtain the most recent tourist (transient) information (Table 2.2). Tourist information for 2004 was not available for Pennsylvania therefore 2003 data was incorporated and was assumed to remain constant for 2004. Fine geographical level tourism data (e.g. tourist per year per county) is not collected by states within 50-mile of IPEC. Connecticut and New Jersey only collect this data at a state level. New York breaks state level visitation numbers into five counties within New York City metropolitan area (defined as Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond counties) and the rest of New York state and Pennsylvania reports tourist per year at a regional level, (Pocono region which includes Carbon, Monroe, Pike and Wayne counties is the relevant region).
To convert state visitation numbers into county visitation the ratio of estimated 2004 county population (Reference 2.5) to estimated 2004 state population was multiplied by total number visitors in state (Table 2.2.1).
To convert state visitation numbers into county visitation the ratio of estimated 2004 county population (Reference 2.5) to estimated 2004 state population was multiplied by total number visitors in state (Table 2.2.1).  
2-2


Revision 1                                                                     December 1, 2009 Table 2.2.1 State Tourism Offices and Reported Visitor Numbers.
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-3 Table 2.2.1 State Tourism Offices and Reported Visitor Numbers.
Data  Reporting Visitor  Reference State - Region             Department         Year       Numbers       Numbers Connecticut Commission on Connecticut                                  2004     19,254,000         2.6 Culture and Tourism New Jersey Travel and New Jersey                                    2004     71,741,000         2.7 Tourism New York - New NYC & Company         2004     41,000,000         2.8 York MSA New York Travel and New York                                    2004     96,000,000         2.9 Tourism Visit Pennsylvania -
State - Region Department Data Year Reporting Visitor Numbers Reference Numbers Connecticut Connecticut Commission on Culture and Tourism 2004 19,254,000 2.6 New Jersey New Jersey Travel and Tourism 2004 71,741,000 2.7 New York - New York MSA NYC & Company 2004 41,000,000 2.8 New York New York Travel and Tourism 2004 96,000,000 2.9 Pennsylvania -
Pennsylvania -
Pocono Region Visit Pennsylvania -
Pennsylvania Tourism     2003     17,726,400         2.10 Pocono Region Department 2-3
Pennsylvania Tourism Department 2003 17,726,400 2.10  


Revision 1                                                                     December 1, 2009 Table 2.2.2 2004 Transient/permanent ratio for 28 reporting counties.
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-4 Table 2.2.2 2004 Transient/permanent ratio for 28 reporting counties.
2004 Person 2004 Estimated        Visits       Transient/Permanent County            Population        (per day)         Ratio (per day)
County 2004 Estimated Population 2004 Person Visits (per day)
Connecticut Fairfield               903,291             13,618                 0.015 Litchfield             189,246               2,853                 0.015 New Haven               845,694             12,750                 0.015 New Jersey Bergen                 902,998             20,435                 0.023 Essex                   796,684             18,029                 0.023 Hudson                 606,240             13,720                 0.023 Middlesex               785,095             17,767                 0.023 Morris                 488,173             11,048                 0.023 Passaic                 500,427             11,325                 0.023 Somerset               316,750               7,168                 0.023 Sussex                 152,218               3,445                 0.023 Union                   531,957             12,039                 0.023 Warren                 110,018               2,490                 0.023 New York Bronx                 1,365,536             18,927                 0.014 Dutchess               293,395               6,904                 0.024 Kings                 2,475,290             34,309                 0.014 Nassau               1,339,641             31,525                 0.024 New York             1,562,723             21,661                 0.014 Orange                 370,352               8,715                 0.024 Putnam                 100,570               2,367                 0.024 Queens               2,237,216             31,010                 0.014 Richmond               463,314               6,422                 0.014 Rockland               293,626               6,910                 0.024 Suffolk               1,475,488             34,722                 0.024 Sullivan                 76,110               1,791                 0.024 Ulster                 181,779               4,278                 0.024 Westchester             942,444             22,178                 0.024 Pennsylvania Pike                     54,117               8,112                 0.150 2-4
Transient/Permanent Ratio (per day)
Connecticut Fairfield 903,291 13,618 0.015 Litchfield 189,246 2,853 0.015 New Haven 845,694 12,750 0.015 New Jersey Bergen 902,998 20,435 0.023 Essex 796,684 18,029 0.023 Hudson 606,240 13,720 0.023 Middlesex 785,095 17,767 0.023 Morris 488,173 11,048 0.023 Passaic 500,427 11,325 0.023 Somerset 316,750 7,168 0.023 Sussex 152,218 3,445 0.023 Union 531,957 12,039 0.023 Warren 110,018 2,490 0.023 New York Bronx 1,365,536 18,927 0.014 Dutchess 293,395 6,904 0.024 Kings 2,475,290 34,309 0.014 Nassau 1,339,641 31,525 0.024 New York 1,562,723 21,661 0.014 Orange 370,352 8,715 0.024 Putnam 100,570 2,367 0.024 Queens 2,237,216 31,010 0.014 Richmond 463,314 6,422 0.014 Rockland 293,626 6,910 0.024 Suffolk 1,475,488 34,722 0.024 Sullivan 76,110 1,791 0.024 Ulster 181,779 4,278 0.024 Westchester 942,444 22,178 0.024 Pennsylvania Pike 54,117 8,112 0.150


Revision 1                                                                         December 1, 2009 2.3     Projected Total Population The projected total population within a 50-mile radius of IPEC was estimated for the year 2035, the end of the proposed license renewal period, by combining the 2035 extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3) with 2035 extrapolated transient population. The 2035 extrapolated transient population was assumed to be the 2004 transient/population ratio multiplied by the extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3).
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-5 2.3 Projected Total Population The projected total population within a 50-mile radius of IPEC was estimated for the year 2035, the end of the proposed license renewal period, by combining the 2035 extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3) with 2035 extrapolated transient population. The 2035 extrapolated transient population was assumed to be the 2004 transient/population ratio multiplied by the extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3).
Table 2.3 Projected total population (2035) by county.
Table 2.3 Projected total population (2035) by county.
2035 Projected  2035 Projected Permanent        Total County       Transient/Permanent Ratio       Population     Population Connecticut Fairfield                             0.015           918,600         932,828 Litchfield                             0.015           217,309         220,675 New Haven                             0.015           896,364         910,248 New Jersey Bergen                                 0.023         1,089,428       1,114,876 Essex                                 0.023           868,715         889,007 Hudson                                 0.023           690,981         707,121 Middlesex                             0.023         1,053,511       1,078,120 Morris                                 0.023           653,201         668,459 Passaic                               0.023           553,404         566,330 Somerset                               0.023           470,131         481112 Sussex                                 0.023           217,947         223038 Union                                 0.023           590,616         604,412 Warren                                 0.023           156,074         159,719 New York Bronx                                 0.014         1,634,750       1,657,680 Dutchess                               0.024           319,391         327,050 Kings                                 0.014         2,618,418       2,655,145 Nassau                                 0.024         1,251,644       1,281,658 New York                               0.014         1,570,657       1,592,688 Orange                                 0.024           445,234         455,910 Putnam                                 0.024           120,738         123,633 Queens                                 0.014         3,024,717       3,067,143 Richmond                               0.014           662,838         672,135 Rockland                               0.024           278,799         285,484 Suffolk                               0.024         1,490,766       1,526,514 Sullivan                               0.024           94,055           96,310 Ulster                                 0.024           222,655         227,994 Westchester                           0.024           914,934         936,873 Pennsylvania Pike                                   0.15           103,437         120,669 2-5
County Transient/Permanent Ratio 2035 Projected Permanent Population 2035 Projected Total Population Connecticut Fairfield 0.015 918,600 932,828 Litchfield 0.015 217,309 220,675 New Haven 0.015 896,364 910,248 New Jersey Bergen 0.023 1,089,428 1,114,876 Essex 0.023 868,715 889,007 Hudson 0.023 690,981 707,121 Middlesex 0.023 1,053,511 1,078,120 Morris 0.023 653,201 668,459 Passaic 0.023 553,404 566,330 Somerset 0.023 470,131 481112 Sussex 0.023 217,947 223038 Union 0.023 590,616 604,412 Warren 0.023 156,074 159,719 New York Bronx 0.014 1,634,750 1,657,680 Dutchess 0.024 319,391 327,050 Kings 0.014 2,618,418 2,655,145 Nassau 0.024 1,251,644 1,281,658 New York 0.014 1,570,657 1,592,688 Orange 0.024 445,234 455,910 Putnam 0.024 120,738 123,633 Queens 0.014 3,024,717 3,067,143 Richmond 0.014 662,838 672,135 Rockland 0.024 278,799 285,484 Suffolk 0.024 1,490,766 1,526,514 Sullivan 0.024 94,055 96,310 Ulster 0.024 222,655 227,994 Westchester 0.024 914,934 936,873 Pennsylvania Pike 0.15 103,437 120,669  


Revision 1                                                                                 December 1, 2009 2.4       Projected Total Population by Spatial Element Areal weighting was used to transfer 2035 projected total population from source areas (county) to target areas (spatial elements) by converting county population to a density measure (e.g. number of people in county/acre) and multiplying this density by the area that county has in a spatial element. For spatial elements that are comprised of elements of more than one county, individual county densities were multiplied by areas of each county in a spatial element and summed. Total projected population of the 50-mile zone of analysis is 19,228,712 and the distribution of 2035 total population is summarized in Table 2.4 and illustrated in Figure 2.2.
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-6 2.4 Projected Total Population by Spatial Element Areal weighting was used to transfer 2035 projected total population from source areas (county) to target areas (spatial elements) by converting county population to a density measure (e.g. number of people in county/acre) and multiplying this density by the area that county has in a spatial element. For spatial elements that are comprised of elements of more than one county, individual county densities were multiplied by areas of each county in a spatial element and summed. Total projected population of the 50-mile zone of analysis is 19,228,712 and the distribution of 2035 total population is summarized in Table 2.4 and illustrated in Figure 2.2.
Table 2.4 2035 projected total population summarized by wind direction and buffer distance.
Table 2.4 2035 projected total population summarized by wind direction and buffer distance.
Wind Direction   0 to 10 miles 11 to 20 miles 21 to 30 miles 31 to 40 miles 41 to 50 miles       Total N           12,488         22,955         30,654         39,620         51,057           156,774 NNE           14,952         28,140         39,917         56,226         67,213           206,448 NE           23,377         29,419         53,692         62,559         41,261           210,308 ENE           40,386         74,856       119,073       152,175       176,338           562,828 E           41,290       118,335       156,720       200,581       208,394           725,320 ESE           37,861       121,515       144,267         54,180         34,361           392,184 SE           41,873       111,946         87,735       236,426       379,990           857,970 SSE           12,197         98,326       481,703       1,380,249     1,218,170         3,190,645 S           20,621       135,211       1,164,596     3,732,339     3,164,306         8,217,073 SSW           30,318       202,605       395,389       922,649       1,034,467         2,585,428 SW           30,796       183,372       276,902       197,362       246,076           934,508 WSW           27,723         64,428       209,197       109,102         85,849           496,299 W           16,925         32,026         50,974         61,380         57,384           218,689 WNW           14,036         32,528         54,577         57,977         29,719           188,837 NW           13,421         32,572         54,557         24,046         22,317           146,913 NNW           12,286         31,660         32,569         27,599         34,374           138,488 Totals               390,550     1,319,894     3,352,522     7,314,470     6,851,276         19,228,712 2-6
Wind Direction 0 to 10 miles 11 to 20 miles 21 to 30 miles 31 to 40 miles 41 to 50 miles Total N
12,488 22,955 30,654 39,620 51,057 156,774 NNE 14,952 28,140 39,917 56,226 67,213 206,448 NE 23,377 29,419 53,692 62,559 41,261 210,308 ENE 40,386 74,856 119,073 152,175 176,338 562,828 E
41,290 118,335 156,720 200,581 208,394 725,320 ESE 37,861 121,515 144,267 54,180 34,361 392,184 SE 41,873 111,946 87,735 236,426 379,990 857,970 SSE 12,197 98,326 481,703 1,380,249 1,218,170 3,190,645 S
20,621 135,211 1,164,596 3,732,339 3,164,306 8,217,073 SSW 30,318 202,605 395,389 922,649 1,034,467 2,585,428 SW 30,796 183,372 276,902 197,362 246,076 934,508 WSW 27,723 64,428 209,197 109,102 85,849 496,299 W
16,925 32,026 50,974 61,380 57,384 218,689 WNW 14,036 32,528 54,577 57,977 29,719 188,837 NW 13,421 32,572 54,557 24,046 22,317 146,913 NNW 12,286 31,660 32,569 27,599 34,374 138,488 Totals 390,550 1,319,894 3,352,522 7,314,470 6,851,276 19,228,712  


Revision 1                                                                     December 1, 2009 Figure 2.1 2035 projected total population by spatial element (dark red indicates highest population).
Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-7 Figure 2.1 2035 projected total population by spatial element (dark red indicates highest population).}}
2-7}}

Latest revision as of 11:03, 11 January 2025

State of New York (NYS) Pre-Filed Evidentiary Hearing Exhibit NYSR00211, Site Specific MACCS2 Input Data for Indian Point Energy Center, Revision 1
ML13045A857
Person / Time
Site: Indian Point  Entergy icon.png
Issue date: 12/01/2009
From:
Enercon Services
To:
Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel, Entergy Nuclear Northeast
SECY RAS
References
RAS 24129, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01
Download: ML13045A857 (11)
v • d • e


Text

SITE SPECIFIC MACCS2 INPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1 December 1, 2009 NYSR00211 Revised: February 14, 2013

SITE SPECIFIC MACCS2 INPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1 Prepared for Entergy Nuclear Northeast White Plains, NY Prepared by Enercon Services, Inc.

6525 N. Meridian Suite 400 Oklahoma City, OK 73116 December 1, 2009

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 1-1

1.0 INTRODUCTION

The Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMAs) for the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) uses the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2),

for estimating the health and economic consequences of severe accidents. Should a severe reactor accident occur, downwind populations, buildings, and crops would be exposed to radioactive materials. MACCS2 estimates the range and probability of the health effects and the economic costs and losses that would result from such an accident.

Data used in this SAMA were imported and organized using ESRI ArcGIS 9.1 Geographic Information System (GIS) (Reference 1.1). ArcGIS 9.1 was used for all geographic processing, overlays, and map production occurred within the ArcGIS 9.1 framework.

MACCS2 requires data in sixteen equiangular sectors centered on IPEC, extending to 50-mile radius. The sector grid is divided into spatial elements by superimposing fifteen circles of increasing diameter over sixteen sectors, for a total of 240 spatial elements. These circles are 0.2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 miles from IPEC. For the purposes of this report, the IPEC center point was determined as the center of the super-heater stack.

Census 2000 Line Data via ESRI (Reference 1.2) for fourteen counties in New York, ten counties in New Jersey, three counties in Connecticut, and one county in Pennsylvania within the IPEC 50-mile buffer were used as base map layers (Figure 1.1, Table 1.1).

Data input into MACCS2 code include:

1.

Population in 2035-at the end of the license renewal period for 240 spatial elements.

2.

Land Fraction-proportion of each of the 240 spatial elements that is land, not water.

3.

Watershed Index-indication of whether spatial element is drained by rivers or is a lake/water body.

4.

Regional Economic Data-estimation of amount of farming and economic activities.

5.

Agricultural Data-crop types, growing season, and percent of farmland for each crop.

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 1-2 Figure 1.1 US counties within 50-miles of IPEC.

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 1-3 Table 1.1 Counties within 50-miles of IPEC.

State/County Land Area (square miles)

Percent within 50-mile zone Connecticut Fairfield 620 100.0 Litchfield 907 41.5 New Haven 595 32.9 New Jersey Bergen 231 100.0 Essex 122 100.0 Hudson 44 100.0 Middlesex 306 1.8 Morris 451 80.8 Passaic 185 100.0 Somerset 304 4.5 Sussex 515 93.9 Union 102 92.9 Warren 356 0.5 New York Bronx 41 100.0 Dutchess 793 88.9 Kings 67 100.0 Nassau 269 97.9 New York 23 100.0 Orange 812 100.0 Putnam 226 100.0 Queens 106 100.0 Richmond 56 65.4 Rockland 173 100.0 Suffolk 895 21.3 Sullivan 967 36.3 Ulster 1123 58.1 Westchester 430 100.0 Pennsylvania Pike 540 18.7

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-2 County 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 New York Bronx 1,332,650 1,365,536 1,425,170 1,469,206 1,511,322 1,550,580 1,586,661 1,634,750 Dutchess 280,150 293,395 293,520 299,468 304,815 309,007 311,809 319,391 Kings 2,465,326 2,475,290 2,531,424 2,554,579 2,571,602 2,580,325 2,580,903 2,618,418 Nassau 1,334,544 1,339,641 1,312,166 1,300,125 1,290,328 1,278,213 1,260,336 1,251,644 New York 1,537,195 1,562,723 1,587,098 1,600,353 1,606,718 1,605,202 1,595,353 1,570,657 Orange 341,367 370,352 370,521 386,015 401,414 415,973 429,580 445,234 Putnam 95,745 100,570 103,786 107,436 110,891 113,917 116,428 120,738 Queens 2,229,379 2,237,216 2,452,109 2,567,898 2,685,206 2,799,559 2,908,709 3,024,717 Richmond 443,728 463,314 505,844 537,493 569,636 600,954 630,683 662,838 Rockland 286,753 293,626 291,706 291,618 290,732 288,593 284,768 278,799 Suffolk 1,419,369 1,475,488 1,456,195 1,466,808 1,474,746 1,476,069 1,468,072 1,490,766 Sullivan 73,966 76,110 79,522 82,524 85,512 88,362 91,092 94,055 Ulster 177,749 181,779 190,389 197,153 203,871 210,096 215,719 222,655 Westchester 923,459 942,444 926,798 925,714 924,149 919,864 911,278 914,934 Pennsylvania Pike 46,302 54,117 60,059 69,447 79,170 103,437 2.2 Projected Transient Population State tourism agencies were contacted to obtain the most recent tourist (transient) information (Table 2.2). Tourist information for 2004 was not available for Pennsylvania therefore 2003 data was incorporated and was assumed to remain constant for 2004. Fine geographical level tourism data (e.g. tourist per year per county) is not collected by states within 50-mile of IPEC. Connecticut and New Jersey only collect this data at a state level. New York breaks state level visitation numbers into five counties within New York City metropolitan area (defined as Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond counties) and the rest of New York state and Pennsylvania reports tourist per year at a regional level, (Pocono region which includes Carbon, Monroe, Pike and Wayne counties is the relevant region).

To convert state visitation numbers into county visitation the ratio of estimated 2004 county population (Reference 2.5) to estimated 2004 state population was multiplied by total number visitors in state (Table 2.2.1).

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-3 Table 2.2.1 State Tourism Offices and Reported Visitor Numbers.

State - Region Department Data Year Reporting Visitor Numbers Reference Numbers Connecticut Connecticut Commission on Culture and Tourism 2004 19,254,000 2.6 New Jersey New Jersey Travel and Tourism 2004 71,741,000 2.7 New York - New York MSA NYC & Company 2004 41,000,000 2.8 New York New York Travel and Tourism 2004 96,000,000 2.9 Pennsylvania -

Pocono Region Visit Pennsylvania -

Pennsylvania Tourism Department 2003 17,726,400 2.10

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-4 Table 2.2.2 2004 Transient/permanent ratio for 28 reporting counties.

County 2004 Estimated Population 2004 Person Visits (per day)

Transient/Permanent Ratio (per day)

Connecticut Fairfield 903,291 13,618 0.015 Litchfield 189,246 2,853 0.015 New Haven 845,694 12,750 0.015 New Jersey Bergen 902,998 20,435 0.023 Essex 796,684 18,029 0.023 Hudson 606,240 13,720 0.023 Middlesex 785,095 17,767 0.023 Morris 488,173 11,048 0.023 Passaic 500,427 11,325 0.023 Somerset 316,750 7,168 0.023 Sussex 152,218 3,445 0.023 Union 531,957 12,039 0.023 Warren 110,018 2,490 0.023 New York Bronx 1,365,536 18,927 0.014 Dutchess 293,395 6,904 0.024 Kings 2,475,290 34,309 0.014 Nassau 1,339,641 31,525 0.024 New York 1,562,723 21,661 0.014 Orange 370,352 8,715 0.024 Putnam 100,570 2,367 0.024 Queens 2,237,216 31,010 0.014 Richmond 463,314 6,422 0.014 Rockland 293,626 6,910 0.024 Suffolk 1,475,488 34,722 0.024 Sullivan 76,110 1,791 0.024 Ulster 181,779 4,278 0.024 Westchester 942,444 22,178 0.024 Pennsylvania Pike 54,117 8,112 0.150

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-5 2.3 Projected Total Population The projected total population within a 50-mile radius of IPEC was estimated for the year 2035, the end of the proposed license renewal period, by combining the 2035 extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3) with 2035 extrapolated transient population. The 2035 extrapolated transient population was assumed to be the 2004 transient/population ratio multiplied by the extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3).

Table 2.3 Projected total population (2035) by county.

County Transient/Permanent Ratio 2035 Projected Permanent Population 2035 Projected Total Population Connecticut Fairfield 0.015 918,600 932,828 Litchfield 0.015 217,309 220,675 New Haven 0.015 896,364 910,248 New Jersey Bergen 0.023 1,089,428 1,114,876 Essex 0.023 868,715 889,007 Hudson 0.023 690,981 707,121 Middlesex 0.023 1,053,511 1,078,120 Morris 0.023 653,201 668,459 Passaic 0.023 553,404 566,330 Somerset 0.023 470,131 481112 Sussex 0.023 217,947 223038 Union 0.023 590,616 604,412 Warren 0.023 156,074 159,719 New York Bronx 0.014 1,634,750 1,657,680 Dutchess 0.024 319,391 327,050 Kings 0.014 2,618,418 2,655,145 Nassau 0.024 1,251,644 1,281,658 New York 0.014 1,570,657 1,592,688 Orange 0.024 445,234 455,910 Putnam 0.024 120,738 123,633 Queens 0.014 3,024,717 3,067,143 Richmond 0.014 662,838 672,135 Rockland 0.024 278,799 285,484 Suffolk 0.024 1,490,766 1,526,514 Sullivan 0.024 94,055 96,310 Ulster 0.024 222,655 227,994 Westchester 0.024 914,934 936,873 Pennsylvania Pike 0.15 103,437 120,669

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-6 2.4 Projected Total Population by Spatial Element Areal weighting was used to transfer 2035 projected total population from source areas (county) to target areas (spatial elements) by converting county population to a density measure (e.g. number of people in county/acre) and multiplying this density by the area that county has in a spatial element. For spatial elements that are comprised of elements of more than one county, individual county densities were multiplied by areas of each county in a spatial element and summed. Total projected population of the 50-mile zone of analysis is 19,228,712 and the distribution of 2035 total population is summarized in Table 2.4 and illustrated in Figure 2.2.

Table 2.4 2035 projected total population summarized by wind direction and buffer distance.

Wind Direction 0 to 10 miles 11 to 20 miles 21 to 30 miles 31 to 40 miles 41 to 50 miles Total N

12,488 22,955 30,654 39,620 51,057 156,774 NNE 14,952 28,140 39,917 56,226 67,213 206,448 NE 23,377 29,419 53,692 62,559 41,261 210,308 ENE 40,386 74,856 119,073 152,175 176,338 562,828 E

41,290 118,335 156,720 200,581 208,394 725,320 ESE 37,861 121,515 144,267 54,180 34,361 392,184 SE 41,873 111,946 87,735 236,426 379,990 857,970 SSE 12,197 98,326 481,703 1,380,249 1,218,170 3,190,645 S

20,621 135,211 1,164,596 3,732,339 3,164,306 8,217,073 SSW 30,318 202,605 395,389 922,649 1,034,467 2,585,428 SW 30,796 183,372 276,902 197,362 246,076 934,508 WSW 27,723 64,428 209,197 109,102 85,849 496,299 W

16,925 32,026 50,974 61,380 57,384 218,689 WNW 14,036 32,528 54,577 57,977 29,719 188,837 NW 13,421 32,572 54,557 24,046 22,317 146,913 NNW 12,286 31,660 32,569 27,599 34,374 138,488 Totals 390,550 1,319,894 3,352,522 7,314,470 6,851,276 19,228,712

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2-7 Figure 2.1 2035 projected total population by spatial element (dark red indicates highest population).

Retrieved from "https://kanterella.com/w/index.php?title=ML13045A857&oldid=5242267"