ML12334A608

Official Exhibit - NYS000115-00-BD01- United States Energy Information Administration, Department of Energy, Annual Energy Outlook 2010 with Projections to 2035 (April 2010) Excerpted: Executive Summary (2010 Energy Outlook)

ML12334A608
Person / Time
Site:	Indian Point
Issue date:	04/30/2010
From:	US Dept of Energy, Energy Information Administration (EIA)
To:	Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
SECY RAS
References
RAS 21538, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01
Download: ML12334A608 (5)

Text

NYS000115 United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit Submitted: December 14, 2011 Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.

In the Matter of: EXCERPT (Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)

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Executive Summary OAGI00000818_00010

Executive Summary In 2009, U.S. energy markets continued to show the and discussions should refer to the "Legislation and impacts of the economic downturn that began in late Regulations" and "Issues in Focus" sections of this 2007. After falling by 1 percent in 2008, total electric- report.

ity generation dropped by another 3 percent in 2009.

Although other factors, including weather, contrib- Moderate energy consumption growth uted to the decrease, it was the first time in the and greater use of renewables 60-year data series maintained by the EIA that elec- Total U.S. primary energy consumption increases by tricity use fell in two consecutive years. Over the next 14 percent from 2008 to 2035 in the Reference case few years, the key factors influencing U.S. energy (Figure 1), representing an average annual growth markets will be the pace of the economic recovery, rate of 0.5 percent-only one-fifth of the projected any lasting impacts on capital-intensive energy pro- 2.4-percent annual growth rate of the Nation's eco-jects from the turmoil in financial markets, and the nomic output. The difference between the two rates is potential enactment of legislation related to energy the result of continuing improvement in the energy and the environment. intensity of the U.S. economy, measured as the amount of energy consumed per dollar of gross The projections inAE02010 focus on the factors that domestic product (GDP). From 2008 to 2035, energy shape U.S. energy markets in the long term. Under intensity falls by 1.9 percent per year in the Reference the assumption that current laws and regulations case, as the most rapid growth in the U.S. economy remain unchanged throughout the projections, the occurs in the less energy-intensive service sectors, AE02010 Reference case provides the basis for exam- and as the efficiency of energy-consuming appliances, ination and discussion of energy market trends and vehicles, and structures improves.

the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for the analysis of potential EIA projects the strongest growth in fuel use for the changes in energy policies, rules, or regulations. renewable fuels used to generate electricity and to Unless otherwise noted, results refer to the Reference produce liquid fuels for the transportation sector. The case. But AE02010 is not limited to the Reference growth in consumption of renewable fuels is primar-case. It also includes 38 sensitivity cases (see Appen- ily a result of Federal and State programs-including dix E, Table E1, on page 201), which explore impor- the Federal renewable fuels standard (RFS), various tant areas of market, technological, and policy State renewable portfolio standard (RPS) programs, uncertainty in the U.S. energy economy. and funds in ARRA-together with rising fossil fuel prices. Although fossil fuels continue to provide most Key results highlighted in AE02010 include moder- of the energy consumed in the United States over the ate growth in energy consumption, increased use of next 25 years in the Reference case, their share of renewables, declining reliance on imported liquid overall energy use falls from 84 percent in 2008 to 78 fuels, strong growth in shale gas production, and pro- percent in 2035.

jected slow growth in energy-related carbon dioxide (C0 2 ) emissions in the absence of new policies de- The role of renewables could grow still further if signed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. current policies that support renewable fuels are AE02010 also includes in-depth discussions on topics Figure 1. U.S. primary energy consumption, of special interest that may affect the energy market 1980-2035 (quadrillion Btu) outlook. They include: impacts of the continuing 120 -

History renewal and updating of Federal and State laws and 100**

regulations; end-use energy efficiency trends in the AE02010 Reference case; the sensitivity of projec-tions to alternative assumptions about U.S. shale gas development; the implications of retiring nuclear 60 -

plants after 60 years of operation; the relationship between natural gas and oil prices in U.S. markets; 40**

and the basis for world oil price and production trends 20 -

in AE02010. Some of the highlights from those discussions are mentioned in this Executive Sum- o mary. Readers interested in more detailed analyses 1980 1995 2008 2020 2035 2 U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2010 OAGI00000818_00011

Executive Summary extended. For example, the Reference case assumes identify some of the key factors that will determine that the PTC available for electricity generation from the potential for petroleum displacement.

renewables sunsets in 2012 (wind) or 2013 (other technologies) as specified in current law, but it has a Shale gas drives growth in natural gas history of being renewed and could be extended again. production, offsetting declines In the Reference case, renewable generation accounts in other sources for 45 percent of the increase in total generation from The growth in shale gas production in recent years 2008 to 2035. In alternative cases assuming the PTC is one of the most dynamic stories in U.S. energy for renewable generation is extended through 2035, markets. A few years ago, most analysts foresaw a the share of growth in total generation accounted for growing U.S. reliance on imported sources of natural by renewables is between 61 and 65 percent. gas, and significant investments were being made in Declining reliance on imported regasification facilities for imports of liquefied natu-liquid fuels ral gas (LNG). Today, the biggest questions are the size of the shale gas resource base (which by most Although U.S. consumption of liquid fuels continues estimates is vast), the price level required to sustain to grow over the next 25 years in theAE02010 Refer- its development, and whether there are technical or ence case, reliance on petroleum imports decreases environmental factors that might dampen its devel-(Figure 2). With government policies and rising oil opment. Beyond those questions, the level of future prices providing incentives for the continued develop- domestic natural gas production will also depend on ment and use of alternatives to fossil fuels, biofuels the level of natural gas demand in key consuming sec-account for all the growth in liquid fuel consumption tors, which will be shaped by prices, economic growth, in the United States over the next 25 years, while con- and policies affecting fuel choice.

sumption of petroleum-based liquids is essentially flat. Total U.S. consumption ofliquid fuels, including In the Reference case, total domestic natural gas both fossil fuels and biofuels, rises from about 20 mil- production grows from 20.6 trillion cubic feet in 2008 lion barrels per day in 2008 to 22 million barrels per to 23.3 trillion cubic feet in 2035. With technology day in 2035 in the Reference case. improvements and rising natural gas prices, natural gas production from shale formations grows to 6 tril-The role played by petroleum-based liquids could be lion cubic feet in 2035, more than offsetting declines further challenged if electric or natural-gas-fueled in other production. In 2035, shale gas provides 24 vehicles begin to enter the market in significant num- percent of the natural gas consumed in the United bers. Rising oil prices, together with growing con- States, up from 6 percent in 2008 (Figure 3).

cerns about climate change and energy security, are leading to increased interest in alternative-fuel vehi- Alternative cases in AE02010 examine the potential cles (AFVs), but both electric and natural gas vehicles impacts of more limited shale gas development and of face significant challenges. Alternative cases in this more extensive development of a larger resource base.

report examine the possible impacts of policies aimed In those cases, overall domestic natural gas produc-at increasing natural gas use in heavy trucks and tion varies from 17.4 trillion cubic feet to 25.9 trillion Figure 2. U.S. liquid fuels supply, 1970-2035 Figure 3. U.S. natural gas supply, 1990-2035 (million barrels per day) (trillion cubic feet) 25 - History Projections History Projections 25 -

20 -

20-15 15 -

10 10 --

5 o o 1970 1990 2008 2020 2035 1990 2000 2008 2015 2025 2035 U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2010 3 OAGI00000818_00012

Executive Summary cubic feet in 2035, compared with 23.3 trillion cubic projected to average 0.9 percent per year, overall feet in the Reference case. The wellhead price ofnatu- economic growth 2.4 percent per year, and growth in ral gas in 2035 ranges from $6.92 per thousand cubic energy use 0.5 percent per year over the same period.

feet to $9.87 per thousand cubic feet in the alternative Although total energy-related CO2 emissions increase cases, compared with $8.06 per thousand cubic feet in from 5,814 million metric tons in 2008 to 6,320 the Reference case. million metric tons in 2035 in the Reference case, emissions per capita fall by 0.6 percent per year. Most There also are uncertainties about the potential role of the growth in CO 2 emissions in the AE02010 of natural gas in various sectors of the economy. In Reference case is accounted for by the electric power recent years, total natural gas use has been increas- and transportation sectors (Figure 4).

ing, with a decline in the industrial sector more than offset by growing use for electricity generation. In The projections for CO2 emissions are sensitive to the long run, the use of natural gas for electricity many factors, including economic growth, policies generation continues growing in the Reference case. aimed at stimulating renewable fuel use or However, over the next few years the combination of low-carbon power sources, and any policies that may relatively slow growth in total demand for electricity, be enacted to reduce GHG emissions. In theAE02010 strong growth in generation from renewable sources, Low and High Economic Growth cases, projections and the completion of a number of coal-fired power for total primary energy consumption in 2035 are plants already under construction limits the potential 104 quadrillion British thermal units (Btu) (9.5 per-for increased use of natural gas in the electric power cent below the Reference case) and 127 quadrillion sector. The near- to mid-term downturn could be Btu (10.7 percent above the Reference case), and offset, of course, if policies were enacted that made projections for energy-related CO2 emissions in 2035 the use of coal for electricity generation less attrac- are 5,768 million metric tons (8.7 percent below the tive, if the recent growth in renewable electricity Reference case) and 6,865 million metric tons (8.6 slowed, or if policies were enacted to make the use of percent above the Reference case), respectively.

natural gas in other sectors, such as transportation, more attractive.

Figure 4. U.S. energy-related carbon dioxide Increases in energy-related carbon emissions, 2008 and 2035 dioxide emissions slow 2008 2035 Electric Buildings and Electric Buildings and The combination of modest growth in energy con- industrial industrial power sumption and increasing reliance on renewable fuels 2,359 (41%) 1,530 (26%) 1,571 (25%)

contributes to slow projected growth in U.S. CO 2 emissions. (For purposes of the AE02010 analysis, biomass energy consumption is assumed to be CO 2 neutral.) In the Reference case, which assumes no explicit regulations to limit GHG emissions beyond the recent vehicle GHG standards, CO 2 emissions from energy grow on average by 0.3 percent per year from 2008 to 2035, or a total of about 9 percent. To Transportation Transportation put the numbers in perspective, population growth is 1,925 (33%) 2,115 (33%)

4 U.S. Energy Information Administration / Annual Energy Outlook 2010 OAGI00000818_00013