ML13045A857

State of New York (NYS) Pre-Filed Evidentiary Hearing Exhibit NYSR00211, Site Specific MACCS2 Input Data for Indian Point Energy Center, Revision 1

ML13045A857
Person / Time
Site:	Indian Point
Issue date:	12/01/2009
From:	Enercon Services
To:	Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel, Entergy Nuclear Northeast
SECY RAS
References
RAS 24129, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01
Download: ML13045A857 (11)

Text

NYSR00211 Revised: February 14, 2013 SITE SPECIFIC MACCS2 INPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1 December 1, 2009

SITE SPECIFIC MACCS2 INPUT DATA FOR INDIAN POINT ENERGY CENTER Revision 1 Prepared for Entergy Nuclear Northeast White Plains, NY Prepared by Enercon Services, Inc.

6525 N. Meridian Suite 400 Oklahoma City, OK 73116 December 1, 2009

Revision 1 December 1, 2009

1.0 INTRODUCTION

The Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMAs) for the Indian Point Energy Center (IPEC) uses the MELCOR Accident Consequence Code System, Version 2 (MACCS2),

for estimating the health and economic consequences of severe accidents. Should a severe reactor accident occur, downwind populations, buildings, and crops would be exposed to radioactive materials. MACCS2 estimates the range and probability of the health effects and the economic costs and losses that would result from such an accident.

Data used in this SAMA were imported and organized using ESRI ArcGIS 9.1 Geographic Information System (GIS) (Reference 1.1). ArcGIS 9.1 was used for all geographic processing, overlays, and map production occurred within the ArcGIS 9.1 framework.

MACCS2 requires data in sixteen equiangular sectors centered on IPEC, extending to 50-mile radius. The sector grid is divided into spatial elements by superimposing fifteen circles of increasing diameter over sixteen sectors, for a total of 240 spatial elements. These circles are 0.2, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 miles from IPEC. For the purposes of this report, the IPEC center point was determined as the center of the super-heater stack.

Census 2000 Line Data via ESRI (Reference 1.2) for fourteen counties in New York, ten counties in New Jersey, three counties in Connecticut, and one county in Pennsylvania within the IPEC 50-mile buffer were used as base map layers (Figure 1.1, Table 1.1).

Data input into MACCS2 code include:

1. Population in 2035-at the end of the license renewal period for 240 spatial elements.

2. Land Fraction-proportion of each of the 240 spatial elements that is land, not water.

3. Watershed Index-indication of whether spatial element is drained by rivers or is a lake/water body.

4. Regional Economic Data-estimation of amount of farming and economic activities.

5. Agricultural Data-crop types, growing season, and percent of farmland for each crop.

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Revision 1 December 1, 2009 Figure 1.1 US counties within 50-miles of IPEC.

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Revision 1 December 1, 2009 Table 1.1 Counties within 50-miles of IPEC.

State/County Land Area (square miles) Percent within 50-mile zone Connecticut Fairfield 620 100.0 Litchfield 907 41.5 New Haven 595 32.9 New Jersey Bergen 231 100.0 Essex 122 100.0 Hudson 44 100.0 Middlesex 306 1.8 Morris 451 80.8 Passaic 185 100.0 Somerset 304 4.5 Sussex 515 93.9 Union 102 92.9 Warren 356 0.5 New York Bronx 41 100.0 Dutchess 793 88.9 Kings 67 100.0 Nassau 269 97.9 New York 23 100.0 Orange 812 100.0 Putnam 226 100.0 Queens 106 100.0 Richmond 56 65.4 Rockland 173 100.0 Suffolk 895 21.3 Sullivan 967 36.3 Ulster 1123 58.1 Westchester 430 100.0 Pennsylvania Pike 540 18.7 1-3

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 County 2000 2004 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 New York Bronx 1,332,650 1,365,536 1,425,170 1,469,206 1,511,322 1,550,580 1,586,661 1,634,750 Dutchess 280,150 293,395 293,520 299,468 304,815 309,007 311,809 319,391 Kings 2,465,326 2,475,290 2,531,424 2,554,579 2,571,602 2,580,325 2,580,903 2,618,418 Nassau 1,334,544 1,339,641 1,312,166 1,300,125 1,290,328 1,278,213 1,260,336 1,251,644 New York 1,537,195 1,562,723 1,587,098 1,600,353 1,606,718 1,605,202 1,595,353 1,570,657 Orange 341,367 370,352 370,521 386,015 401,414 415,973 429,580 445,234 Putnam 95,745 100,570 103,786 107,436 110,891 113,917 116,428 120,738 Queens 2,229,379 2,237,216 2,452,109 2,567,898 2,685,206 2,799,559 2,908,709 3,024,717 Richmond 443,728 463,314 505,844 537,493 569,636 600,954 630,683 662,838 Rockland 286,753 293,626 291,706 291,618 290,732 288,593 284,768 278,799 Suffolk 1,419,369 1,475,488 1,456,195 1,466,808 1,474,746 1,476,069 1,468,072 1,490,766 Sullivan 73,966 76,110 79,522 82,524 85,512 88,362 91,092 94,055 Ulster 177,749 181,779 190,389 197,153 203,871 210,096 215,719 222,655 Westchester 923,459 942,444 926,798 925,714 924,149 919,864 911,278 914,934 Pennsylvania Pike 46,302 54,117 60,059 69,447 79,170 103,437 2.2 Projected Transient Population State tourism agencies were contacted to obtain the most recent tourist (transient) information (Table 2.2). Tourist information for 2004 was not available for Pennsylvania therefore 2003 data was incorporated and was assumed to remain constant for 2004. Fine geographical level tourism data (e.g. tourist per year per county) is not collected by states within 50-mile of IPEC. Connecticut and New Jersey only collect this data at a state level. New York breaks state level visitation numbers into five counties within New York City metropolitan area (defined as Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens, and Richmond counties) and the rest of New York state and Pennsylvania reports tourist per year at a regional level, (Pocono region which includes Carbon, Monroe, Pike and Wayne counties is the relevant region).

To convert state visitation numbers into county visitation the ratio of estimated 2004 county population (Reference 2.5) to estimated 2004 state population was multiplied by total number visitors in state (Table 2.2.1).

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Revision 1 December 1, 2009 Table 2.2.1 State Tourism Offices and Reported Visitor Numbers.

Data Reporting Visitor Reference State - Region Department Year Numbers Numbers Connecticut Commission on Connecticut 2004 19,254,000 2.6 Culture and Tourism New Jersey Travel and New Jersey 2004 71,741,000 2.7 Tourism New York - New NYC & Company 2004 41,000,000 2.8 York MSA New York Travel and New York 2004 96,000,000 2.9 Tourism Visit Pennsylvania -

Pennsylvania -

Pennsylvania Tourism 2003 17,726,400 2.10 Pocono Region Department 2-3

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 Table 2.2.2 2004 Transient/permanent ratio for 28 reporting counties.

2004 Person 2004 Estimated Visits Transient/Permanent County Population (per day) Ratio (per day)

Connecticut Fairfield 903,291 13,618 0.015 Litchfield 189,246 2,853 0.015 New Haven 845,694 12,750 0.015 New Jersey Bergen 902,998 20,435 0.023 Essex 796,684 18,029 0.023 Hudson 606,240 13,720 0.023 Middlesex 785,095 17,767 0.023 Morris 488,173 11,048 0.023 Passaic 500,427 11,325 0.023 Somerset 316,750 7,168 0.023 Sussex 152,218 3,445 0.023 Union 531,957 12,039 0.023 Warren 110,018 2,490 0.023 New York Bronx 1,365,536 18,927 0.014 Dutchess 293,395 6,904 0.024 Kings 2,475,290 34,309 0.014 Nassau 1,339,641 31,525 0.024 New York 1,562,723 21,661 0.014 Orange 370,352 8,715 0.024 Putnam 100,570 2,367 0.024 Queens 2,237,216 31,010 0.014 Richmond 463,314 6,422 0.014 Rockland 293,626 6,910 0.024 Suffolk 1,475,488 34,722 0.024 Sullivan 76,110 1,791 0.024 Ulster 181,779 4,278 0.024 Westchester 942,444 22,178 0.024 Pennsylvania Pike 54,117 8,112 0.150 2-4

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2.3 Projected Total Population The projected total population within a 50-mile radius of IPEC was estimated for the year 2035, the end of the proposed license renewal period, by combining the 2035 extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3) with 2035 extrapolated transient population. The 2035 extrapolated transient population was assumed to be the 2004 transient/population ratio multiplied by the extrapolated permanent population (Table 2.3).

Table 2.3 Projected total population (2035) by county.

2035 Projected 2035 Projected Permanent Total County Transient/Permanent Ratio Population Population Connecticut Fairfield 0.015 918,600 932,828 Litchfield 0.015 217,309 220,675 New Haven 0.015 896,364 910,248 New Jersey Bergen 0.023 1,089,428 1,114,876 Essex 0.023 868,715 889,007 Hudson 0.023 690,981 707,121 Middlesex 0.023 1,053,511 1,078,120 Morris 0.023 653,201 668,459 Passaic 0.023 553,404 566,330 Somerset 0.023 470,131 481112 Sussex 0.023 217,947 223038 Union 0.023 590,616 604,412 Warren 0.023 156,074 159,719 New York Bronx 0.014 1,634,750 1,657,680 Dutchess 0.024 319,391 327,050 Kings 0.014 2,618,418 2,655,145 Nassau 0.024 1,251,644 1,281,658 New York 0.014 1,570,657 1,592,688 Orange 0.024 445,234 455,910 Putnam 0.024 120,738 123,633 Queens 0.014 3,024,717 3,067,143 Richmond 0.014 662,838 672,135 Rockland 0.024 278,799 285,484 Suffolk 0.024 1,490,766 1,526,514 Sullivan 0.024 94,055 96,310 Ulster 0.024 222,655 227,994 Westchester 0.024 914,934 936,873 Pennsylvania Pike 0.15 103,437 120,669 2-5

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 2.4 Projected Total Population by Spatial Element Areal weighting was used to transfer 2035 projected total population from source areas (county) to target areas (spatial elements) by converting county population to a density measure (e.g. number of people in county/acre) and multiplying this density by the area that county has in a spatial element. For spatial elements that are comprised of elements of more than one county, individual county densities were multiplied by areas of each county in a spatial element and summed. Total projected population of the 50-mile zone of analysis is 19,228,712 and the distribution of 2035 total population is summarized in Table 2.4 and illustrated in Figure 2.2.

Table 2.4 2035 projected total population summarized by wind direction and buffer distance.

Wind Direction 0 to 10 miles 11 to 20 miles 21 to 30 miles 31 to 40 miles 41 to 50 miles Total N 12,488 22,955 30,654 39,620 51,057 156,774 NNE 14,952 28,140 39,917 56,226 67,213 206,448 NE 23,377 29,419 53,692 62,559 41,261 210,308 ENE 40,386 74,856 119,073 152,175 176,338 562,828 E 41,290 118,335 156,720 200,581 208,394 725,320 ESE 37,861 121,515 144,267 54,180 34,361 392,184 SE 41,873 111,946 87,735 236,426 379,990 857,970 SSE 12,197 98,326 481,703 1,380,249 1,218,170 3,190,645 S 20,621 135,211 1,164,596 3,732,339 3,164,306 8,217,073 SSW 30,318 202,605 395,389 922,649 1,034,467 2,585,428 SW 30,796 183,372 276,902 197,362 246,076 934,508 WSW 27,723 64,428 209,197 109,102 85,849 496,299 W 16,925 32,026 50,974 61,380 57,384 218,689 WNW 14,036 32,528 54,577 57,977 29,719 188,837 NW 13,421 32,572 54,557 24,046 22,317 146,913 NNW 12,286 31,660 32,569 27,599 34,374 138,488 Totals 390,550 1,319,894 3,352,522 7,314,470 6,851,276 19,228,712 2-6

Revision 1 December 1, 2009 Figure 2.1 2035 projected total population by spatial element (dark red indicates highest population).

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