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{{#Wiki_filter:The Psychology of Risk:
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A Brief Overview Paul Slovic Decision Research and University of Oregon NRC RIC March 8, 2021
 
Some Questions Addressed by 60 Years of Research
: 1. How do people think about risk?
: 2. What factors determine the perception of risk and the acceptance of risk?
: 3. What role do emotion and reason play in risk perception and decision making?
: 4. What are some of the social, economic, and political implications of risk perceptions?
 
Psychology of Risk: Key Points
* Risk and risk assessment are subjective and value laden
* Every hazard has unique qualities that drive perceptions and behavior
* Perceptions have impacts (ripple effects, stigma)
* Trust is critical: hard won, easily lost
* Most risk perception is determined by fast intuitive feelings (e.g., dread) based on experiential thinking, rather than by careful deliberation
* Understanding risk perception is critical for effective risk communication and risk management
 
Acceptance of Risk Tends to be Reduced if:
* the hazard is new or unfamiliar
* exposure to the hazard is involuntary
* the risk is not under ones control
* the risk evokes feelings of dread
* the outcomes are catastrophic
* the benefits of an activity are not highly visible or not fairly or equitably distributed among those who bear the risks.
 
Earliest Study of Perceived Risk Risk is left undefined Rate the risk to society as a whole on a 0 - 100 scale Motor vehicles      - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
0                            100 Pesticides          - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
0                            100 Drugs/Medicines    - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
0                            100 etc.
up to 90 items
 
Experts vs. Laypersons Perception of Risk Rank Order 1977 Laypersons                  Experts 1          Nuclear power    20 2          Motor vehicles    1 3            Handguns        4 4              Smoking        2 17          Electric power    9 (non-nuclear) 22              X-rays        7 30            Vaccinations    25
 
X-Rays vs. Nuclear Power
* X-Rays are perceived as more beneficial
* X-Rays more familiar, less new
* Medical profession is more trusted Benefit is the key
 
Risk is Multidimensional Qualitative Risk Concerns
* Voluntary - Involuntary
* Chronic - Catastrophic
* Common - Dread
* Certainly not fatal - Certainly fatal
* Known to exposed - Not known to exposed
* Immediate - Delayed
* Known to science - Not known to science
* Not Controllable - Controllable
* New - Old
* Equitable - Not equitable
 
Voluntary                      Involuntary Chronic                      Catastrophic Nuclear power Common                        Dread X-rays Certain not fatal                    Certainly fatal Known to exposed                        Not known to exposed Immediate                        Delayed Known to science                      Not known to science Not controllable                      Controllable New                        Old 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean rating
 
Importance of Trust Acceptance of any risk is more dependent on public confidence in risk management than on quantitative estimates of risk C. Starr
 
TRUST is the Key to Communication Problems
* If you have trust the path is smooth
* If you do not have trust, no form of phrasing or presentation is likely to be successful
 
Trust: The Asymmetry Principle
* It is far easier to destroy trust than to create it!
* Negative (trust-destroying) events outweigh positive events
 
An Experiment: Trust Increasing and Decreasing Events An experiment asked people to rate the impact of hypothetical positive and negative news headlines on their trust in the managers of a nearby nuclear power plant Trust-Increasing                            Trust-Decreasing Regular public meetings                        No public hearings Public tours encouraged                    Public tours not permitted Plant managers live nearby                      Officials live far away Health nearby better than the average      Health nearby is worse than the average
 
Local board authority to close plant Evacuation plan exists On-site government inspector Rewarded for finding problems Responsive to any sign of problems Effective emergency action taken Local advisory board established Public encouraged to tour plant Impact Mandatory drug testing No problems for five years                              TRUST Hold regular public hearings Employees carefully trained INCREASING Good News Conduct emergency training Community has access to records Serious accident is controlled Nearby health is good Monitor radioactive emissions Differential Impact of Employees informed of problems Neighbors notified of problems No evidence of withholding information Contribute to local charities Trust-Increasing and Employees closely supervised Try to meet with public Managers live nearby Operates according to regulations Trust-Decreasing No problems in past year Record keeping is good Dont contribute to local charities No public hearings Events Little communication with community Emergency response plans not rehearsed Officials live far away Poor record keeping TRUST                              Accident occurs in another state Accused of releasing radiation Impact  DECREASING                                Denied access to records Employees not informed of problems Delayed inspections Bad News                                          Public tours not permitted Health nearby worse than average Official lied to government Serious accident is controlled No adequate emergency response plan Plant covered up problem Employees drunk on job Records were falsified 60%        40%          20%      0%          20%      40%        60%
Percent very powerful impact
 
Impact Very Very small    powerful 1    2 ...6      7 The county medical  3.0  8.0  26.0  24.0 examiner reports                            Worse health Trust Decreasing  that the health of people living near                            50% say Headline      the plant is worse                          powerful impact than the average for the region The county medical  21.5  14.0  16.1  2.2 examiner reports                            Better health Trust Increasing that the health of people living near                            18% say Headline      the plant is better                        powerful impact than the average for the region
 
Another Lesson from Risk Perception Research
* Peoples political ideologies and worldviews strongly influence their perception and acceptance of risk.
* A possible topic for discussion.
 
Thank You!}}

Revision as of 04:12, 8 September 2021

Regulatory Information Conference (RIC) RIC 2021 Slovicp-m7
ML21197A174
Person / Time
Issue date: 03/08/2021
From: De Messieres C
Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To:
Candace De Messieres (301)415-8395
References
Download: ML21197A174 (17)
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