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{{#Wiki_filter:Quantifying Reactor Accident Risk: A History Panel W20: The Metamorphosis to a More Risk | {{#Wiki_filter:Quantifying Reactor Accident Risk: A History Panel W20: The Metamorphosis to a More Risk-Informed Regulator Tom Wellock NRC | ||
-Informed | |||
-Based*A | Risk-Informed, Performance-Based | ||
-Efficiency | * A New Paradigm | ||
-Safety Significant | - Efficiency | ||
-Relieve Regulatory Burden | - Safety Significant | ||
*PRAs: | - Relieve Regulatory Burden | ||
-Industry-NRC gap-Methodology | * PRAs: Significant Limitations | ||
-Data-Peer Review | - Industry-NRC gap | ||
*New Safety | - Methodology | ||
Three Ds of the Deterministic Era | - Data | ||
-Deterministic Design | - Peer Review | ||
-Design Basis Accidents-Defense-in-Depth*Inherent Safety | * New Safety Issues NRC Chairman Shirley Jackson 2 | ||
*Active Systems | |||
*Siting*Static Layers (containment) 3 4 | Three Ds of the Deterministic Era | ||
WASH-1400 and the Roots of PRA | - Deterministic Design | ||
*Methodology: Models and Goals in the 1960s | - Design Basis Accidents | ||
*Regulatory Necessity | - Defense-in-Depth | ||
*Political Necessity 5 | * Inherent Safety | ||
* Active Systems | |||
*Loss of Coolant and the China Syndrome | * Siting | ||
-ECCS*Anticipated Transient Without Scram | * Static Layers (containment) 3 | ||
-Beyond the Design Basis Accident-Need for regulatory risk | |||
4 WASH-1400 and the Roots of PRA | |||
* Methodology: Models and Goals in the 1960s | |||
* Regulatory Necessity | |||
* Political Necessity 5 | |||
Accident Modeling in the 1960s 6 | |||
Farmer Curve Chauncey Starr 7 | |||
New Safety Issues | |||
* Loss of Coolant and the China Syndrome | |||
- ECCS | |||
* Anticipated Transient Without Scram | |||
- Beyond the Design Basis Accident | |||
- Need for regulatory risk expertise 8 | |||
AEC Under Siege | AEC Under Siege | ||
*Anti-nuclear Movement | * Anti-nuclear Movement | ||
*Environmental Protection Agency-Class 9 accidents | * Environmental Protection Agency | ||
- Class 9 accidents. | |||
*Congress Henry Kendall, UCS 9 WASH-1400: Positives | - Growing interest in risk | ||
*New tool for regulators | * Congress Henry Kendall, UCS 9 | ||
* | |||
*Core damage more likely but lower consequences 10 Small LOCA Event Tree from WASH | WASH-1400: Positives | ||
-1400 11 WASH-1400: Negatives | * New tool for regulators | ||
*Large error bands | * A spectrum of accidents | ||
*Inappropriate comparisons to other risks | * Core damage more likely but lower consequences 10 | ||
*Some accidents not analyzed | |||
*Lacked adequate peer review | Small LOCA Event Tree from WASH-1400 11 WASH-1400: Negatives | ||
*Lewis Committee (1978) 12 | * Large error bands | ||
-1400 Three Mile Island and WASH | * Inappropriate comparisons to other risks | ||
-1400 Human factors and | * Some accidents not analyzed | ||
-Beyond the Design Basis: ATWS, SBO, severe accidents | * Lacked adequate peer review | ||
-Unresolved Questions: Generic issues, older plants | * Lewis Committee (1978) 12 | ||
-Operating Reactors: Evaluating events | |||
-New Reactors: Design certification | WASH-1400, Executive Summary 13 UCS Critique of WASH-1400 14 | ||
-Methodology: Industry PRAs and NUREG | |||
-1150-Goals: Safety Goal Policy and Backfits 16 Toward Risk | Three Mile Island and WASH-1400 Human factors and operations Severe accidents Safety systems other than ECCS TMI Control Room, March 1979 15 | ||
-Informed Regulation, | |||
*Slide 2: U.S. NRC, | 1980s: Beneficially Unfocused | ||
*Slide 4: C.A. Bennett to A.B. Greninger, | - Beyond the Design Basis: ATWS, SBO, severe accidents | ||
- Unresolved Questions: Generic issues, older plants | |||
-4461 | - Operating Reactors: Evaluating events | ||
-id=16413875; B.J. Garrick, Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant Protective Systems, HN | - New Reactors: Design certification | ||
-190 , May 1967, (Los Angeles: Holmes & Narver, May 1967); R.S. Hart and W.T. Harper, Final SNAPSHOT Safeguard Report, NAA | - Methodology: Industry PRAs and NUREG-1150 | ||
-SR-10022(Rev.) (San Diego, CA: Atomics International, March 20, 1965 | - Goals: Safety Goal Policy and Backfits 16 | ||
).*Slide 7: F.R. Farmer, | |||
Toward Risk-Informed Regulation, 1990s Individual Plant Examinations Towers-Perrin Report Maintenance Rule PRA Policy Statement (1995) and Implementation Plan (1994) 17 | |||
-7 April 1967 (Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency, 1976) 322; Chauncey Starr, | |||
-38. 18 References (cont.) | References | ||
*Slide 9: Archive of the Norfolk Charitable Trust, Sharon, MA. | * Slide 2: U.S. NRC, An Evening with Dr. Shirley Ann Jackson, November 15, 1995, U.S. NRC ADAMS Main Library, ML003710152. | ||
*Slides 11 and 13: U.S. NRC, Reactor Safety Study: An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. | * Slide 4: C.A. Bennett to A.B. Greninger, Evaluation of Probability of Disasters, HW-28767, July 20, 1953, DOE Public Reading Room Catalog, Accession # | ||
-1400 (NUREG | D8451637. | ||
-75/014) (DC: U.S. NRC, October 1975). | * Slide 6: P.A. Crosetti and R.F. Furrer, Comparative Reliability AnalysisK-Reactor Secondary Coolant System, DUN-4461 (Hanford, WA: Douglas United Nuclear, September 9, 1968), U.S. Department of Energy Opennet,,https://www.osti.gov/opennet/detail.jsp?osti-id=16413875; B.J. | ||
*Slide 14: Sierra Club and Union of Concerned Scientists, Preliminary Review of the AEC Reactor Safety Study(San Francisco | Garrick, Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant Protective Systems, HN-190, May 1967, (Los Angeles: Holmes & Narver, May 1967); R.S. Hart and W.T. Harper, Final SNAPSHOT Safeguard Report, NAA-SR-10022(Rev.) (San Diego, CA: | ||
-Cambridge, December 1974), 100B.*Slide 15: | Atomics International, March 20, 1965). | ||
-72157628998200797/. | * Slide 7: F.R. Farmer, Siting CriteriaA New Approach, Containment and Siting of Nuclear Power Plants, Proceedings of a Symposium, Vienna 3-7 April 1967 (Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency, 1976) 322; Chauncey Starr, Social Benefit vs. Technological Risk, Science 165 no. 3899, September 19, 1969, 1232-38. | ||
19 Acronyms*ATWS: Anticipated Transient Without Scram | 18 | ||
*ECCS: Emergency Core Cooling System | |||
*PRA: Probabilistic Risk Assessment | References (cont.) | ||
*SBO: Station Blackout | * Slide 9: Archive of the Norfolk Charitable Trust, Sharon, MA. | ||
*UCS: Union of Concerned Scientists | * Slides 11 and 13: U.S. NRC, Reactor Safety Study: An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commerical Nuclear Power Plants, WASH-1400 (NUREG-75/014) (DC: | ||
*WASH: AEC Headquarters, Washington, DC 20}} | U.S. NRC, October 1975). | ||
* Slide 14: Sierra Club and Union of Concerned Scientists, Preliminary Review of the AEC Reactor Safety Study (San Francisco-Cambridge, December 1974), | |||
100B. | |||
* Slide 15: TMI Control Room in 1979, U.S. NRC Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/nrcgov/7447591188/in/album-72157628998200797/. | |||
19 | |||
Acronyms | |||
* ATWS: Anticipated Transient Without Scram | |||
* ECCS: Emergency Core Cooling System | |||
* PRA: Probabilistic Risk Assessment | |||
* SBO: Station Blackout | |||
* UCS: Union of Concerned Scientists | |||
* WASH: AEC Headquarters, Washington, DC 20}} |
Revision as of 12:07, 21 October 2019
ML18094A900 | |
Person / Time | |
---|---|
Issue date: | 03/13/2018 |
From: | Thomas Wellock NRC/SECY |
To: | |
Moulton C | |
References | |
Download: ML18094A900 (20) | |
Text
Quantifying Reactor Accident Risk: A History Panel W20: The Metamorphosis to a More Risk-Informed Regulator Tom Wellock NRC
Risk-Informed, Performance-Based
- A New Paradigm
- Efficiency
- Safety Significant
- Relieve Regulatory Burden
- PRAs: Significant Limitations
- Industry-NRC gap
- Methodology
- Data
- Peer Review
- New Safety Issues NRC Chairman Shirley Jackson 2
Three Ds of the Deterministic Era
- Deterministic Design
- Design Basis Accidents
- Defense-in-Depth
- Inherent Safety
- Active Systems
- Siting
- Static Layers (containment) 3
4 WASH-1400 and the Roots of PRA
- Methodology: Models and Goals in the 1960s
- Regulatory Necessity
- Political Necessity 5
Accident Modeling in the 1960s 6
Farmer Curve Chauncey Starr 7
New Safety Issues
- Loss of Coolant and the China Syndrome
- ECCS
- Beyond the Design Basis Accident
- Need for regulatory risk expertise 8
AEC Under Siege
- Anti-nuclear Movement
- Class 9 accidents.
- Growing interest in risk
- Congress Henry Kendall, UCS 9
WASH-1400: Positives
- New tool for regulators
- A spectrum of accidents
- Core damage more likely but lower consequences 10
Small LOCA Event Tree from WASH-1400 11 WASH-1400: Negatives
- Large error bands
- Inappropriate comparisons to other risks
- Some accidents not analyzed
- Lacked adequate peer review
- Lewis Committee (1978) 12
WASH-1400, Executive Summary 13 UCS Critique of WASH-1400 14
Three Mile Island and WASH-1400 Human factors and operations Severe accidents Safety systems other than ECCS TMI Control Room, March 1979 15
1980s: Beneficially Unfocused
- Beyond the Design Basis: ATWS, SBO, severe accidents
- Unresolved Questions: Generic issues, older plants
- Operating Reactors: Evaluating events
- New Reactors: Design certification
- Methodology: Industry PRAs and NUREG-1150
- Goals: Safety Goal Policy and Backfits 16
Toward Risk-Informed Regulation, 1990s Individual Plant Examinations Towers-Perrin Report Maintenance Rule PRA Policy Statement (1995) and Implementation Plan (1994) 17
References
- Slide 2: U.S. NRC, An Evening with Dr. Shirley Ann Jackson, November 15, 1995, U.S. NRC ADAMS Main Library, ML003710152.
- Slide 4: C.A. Bennett to A.B. Greninger, Evaluation of Probability of Disasters, HW-28767, July 20, 1953, DOE Public Reading Room Catalog, Accession #
D8451637.
- Slide 6: P.A. Crosetti and R.F. Furrer, Comparative Reliability AnalysisK-Reactor Secondary Coolant System, DUN-4461 (Hanford, WA: Douglas United Nuclear, September 9, 1968), U.S. Department of Energy Opennet,,https://www.osti.gov/opennet/detail.jsp?osti-id=16413875; B.J.
Garrick, Reliability Analysis of Nuclear Power Plant Protective Systems, HN-190, May 1967, (Los Angeles: Holmes & Narver, May 1967); R.S. Hart and W.T. Harper, Final SNAPSHOT Safeguard Report, NAA-SR-10022(Rev.) (San Diego, CA:
Atomics International, March 20, 1965).
- Slide 7: F.R. Farmer, Siting CriteriaA New Approach, Containment and Siting of Nuclear Power Plants, Proceedings of a Symposium, Vienna 3-7 April 1967 (Vienna: International Atomic Energy Agency, 1976) 322; Chauncey Starr, Social Benefit vs. Technological Risk, Science 165 no. 3899, September 19, 1969, 1232-38.
18
References (cont.)
- Slide 9: Archive of the Norfolk Charitable Trust, Sharon, MA.
- Slides 11 and 13: U.S. NRC, Reactor Safety Study: An Assessment of Accident Risks in U.S. Commerical Nuclear Power Plants, WASH-1400 (NUREG-75/014) (DC:
U.S. NRC, October 1975).
- Slide 14: Sierra Club and Union of Concerned Scientists, Preliminary Review of the AEC Reactor Safety Study (San Francisco-Cambridge, December 1974),
100B.
- Slide 15: TMI Control Room in 1979, U.S. NRC Flickr, https://www.flickr.com/photos/nrcgov/7447591188/in/album-72157628998200797/.
19
- SBO: Station Blackout
- WASH: AEC Headquarters, Washington, DC 20