ML12340A813

Official Exhibit - ENT000589-00-BD01 - MACCS2 Sensitivity Analysis for NYS-16 Using Dr. Sheppards Proposed Data (Oct. 9, 2012)

ML12340A813
Person / Time
Site:	Indian Point
Issue date:	10/09/2012
From:	Entergy Nuclear Operations
To:	Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
SECY RAS
References
RAS 23671, 50-247-LR, 50-286-LR, ASLBP 07-858-03-LR-BD01
Download: ML12340A813 (9)

Text

IndianPointLicenseRenewalProceeding:SupplementalSensitivityAnalysisReNYS16





Calculation:IP2SENSPOP2,PopulationsensitivitycaseforContentionNYS16usingalternative

data/assumptionsproposedbyNYSwitnessDr.StephenSheppardinhisRebuttalTestimony

(NYS000404)andassociatedexhibitNYS000409



Preparer:GrantTeagarden(ErinEngineering)



Reviewers:LoriPotts(Entergy)andKouJohnHong(Entergy)











ENT000589 Submitted: October 26, 2012 United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission Official Hearing Exhibit In the Matter of:

Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc.

(Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)

ASLBP #: 07-858-03-LR-BD01 Docket #: 05000247 l 05000286 Exhibit #:

Identified:

Admitted:

Withdrawn:

Rejected:

Stricken:

Other:

ENT000589-00-BD01 10/22/2012 10/22/2012

Calculation:

IP2SENSPOP2 Prepared: GrantTeagarden 10/9/2012

Purpose:

PopulationsensitivityforNYS16usingDr.Sheppardproposeddata Reviewed: KouJohnHong 10/9/2012 (MACCS2)

Table4ofNYS000409,plus

Reviewed: LoriPotts 10/9/2012 (3Counties;SAMAimp Additionalpopulationfor3countiesthathavepopulationpeakspriorto2035.

ToconfirmthatDr.Sheppard'sproposedpopulationdatadoesnotimpactSAMAconclusions.

Inputs / Methodology:

Start with Table 4 of NYS000409, Dr. Sheppard's recommended distribution of census undercount and commuters Thisincludesundercounts@100%andcommuters@100%

Add in peak population for 3 counties that have population peaks prior to 2035 NYCounty,NY Rockland,NY WestChester,NY Adjust(escalate)thesethepopulationbytheundercount&commuterincreaseofDr.Sheppard(i.e.,6.38%)

DevelopnewSITEFilewithrevisedpopulationdata(nootherchanges).

RunMACCS2withtheupdatedSITEFileforIP2usingotherIP2MACCS2inputfilesfrombasecase.

ComparesensitivityMACCS2resultswithIPECReAnalysisResults(IPCALC0900265,Table5DoseandCost)

Comments Dr.Sheppard'srecommendeddistributiondoesnottakeintoaccountcountytocountyvariationacrossthe50milegrid i.e.,auniformpopulationescalationfactorisusingthroughoutthegrid.

Populationdoseriskandcostriskscalelinearlywithpopulationdata,asexpected.

Populationdoseriskandcostriskincreaseapproximately6.7%and6.8%respectively,duetothepopulationincreaseof6.7%.

TheSAMAimpactisapproximately6.15%;lessthanthatrequiredtoimpactthenextcostbeneficialSAMAforIP2.

ImpactsonIP3wouldbesimilar(i.e.,populationdoseandcostscalelinearlywithpopulation)

Dr.Sheppardsrecommendedpopulationdistribution.

TABLE4ofNYS000409 0.20 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 0.3219 1.6093 3.2187 4.828 6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674 N

6 0

288 2190 2661 967 990 1301 1478 1599 1804 24420 32611 42149 54316 NNE 17 7

181 2067 3098 2182 1252 1477 1678 1913 2035 29936 42465 59815 71503 NE 18 205 939 2267 3153 4088 4160 3254 2621 2126 2037 31297 57119 66552 43895 ENE 18 387 1356 2268 3167 3673 4795 5619 6532 7404 7744 79634 126674 161889 187594 E

18 415 1296 2274 3121 4034 4706 5865 5944 7661 8592 125889 166724 213385 221696 ESE 18 435 1336 2272 3160 3821 3934 4103 6100 7216 7882 129272 153476 57638 36554 SE 18 436 1355 2274 3055 4051 4827 5616 6685 7653 8574 119092 93335 251518 404246 SSE 18 383 1349 1750 938 527 16 1534 1009 2033 3419 104602 512451 1468353 1295928 S

18 426 746 262 132 660 1636 3461 4393 4739 5466 143842 1238935 3970582 3366291 SSW 18 401 598 532 1809 3066 3770 4454 5184 5869 6552 215538 420628 981544 1100499 SW 18 231 199 1666 2419 3102 3802 4455 4639 5700 6530 195077 294577 209960 261784 WSW 10 0

660 1727 2337 3111 3777 4270 4464 4527 4612 68541 222551 116066 91329 W

3 0

910 1704 2412 2995 2519 1901 1514 1888 2160 34070 54228 65298 61047 WNW 2

0 998 1728 2388 1427 1207 1510 1601 1868 2203 34604 58061 61678 31616 NW 2

48 1036 1690 2056 1034 1213 1437 1639 1895 2227 34651 58039 25581 23742 NNW 3

53 861 1118 1688 787 1281 1497 1723 1901 2157 33681 34648 29361 36568 TOTAL 205 3427 14108 27789 37594 39525 43885 51754 57204 65992 73994 1404146 3566522 7781369 7288608 20,456,122



19,228,712



(EntergySITETotal) 1.06383 Ratio Postulatedcontributionfromthreecountieswhosepopulationgrowthpeakspriorto2035.

PostulatedAdditionalPersons 61,915 (inNYCounty,RocklandCounty,andWestChesterCounty)ifpeakyearofcensusdataisused.

Undercount&Commuters 1.0638 (Dr.Sheppardincreasefactor)

Total 65,865



65,865/19,228,712=

0.343%

Distributionassuminguniformdistribution,asadvocatedbyDr.SheppardfordevelopmentofTable4 0.20 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 0.3219 1.6093 3.2187 4.828 6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674 N

0 0

1 7

9 3

3 4

5 5

6 79 105 136 175 N

NNE 0

0 1

7 10 7

4 5

5 6

7 96 137 193 230 NNE NE 0

1 3

7 10 13 13 10 8

7 7

101 184 214 141 NE ENE 0

1 4

7 10 12 15 18 21 24 25 256 408 521 604 ENE E

0 1

4 7

10 13 15 19 19 25 28 405 537 687 714 E

ESE 0

1 4

7 10 12 13 13 20 23 25 416 494 186 118 ESE SE 0

1 4

7 10 13 16 18 22 25 28 383 301 810 1302 SE SSE 0

1 4

6 3

2 0

5 3

7 11 337 1650 4728 4173 SSE S

0 1

2 1

0 2

5 11 14 15 18 463 3989 12785 10839 S

SSW 0

1 2

2 6

10 12 14 17 19 21 694 1354 3160 3543 SSW SW 0

1 1

5 8

10 12 14 15 18 21 628 948 676 843 SW WSW 0

0 2

6 8

10 12 14 14 15 15 221 717 374 294 WSW W

0 0

3 5

8 10 8

6 5

6 7

110 175 210 197 W

WNW 0

0 3

6 8

5 4

5 5

6 7

111 187 199 102 WNW NW 0

0 3

5 7

3 4

5 5

6 7

112 187 82 76 NW NNW 0

0 3

4 5

3 4

5 6

6 7

108 112 95 118 NNW TOTAL 0

9 44 89 122 128 140 166 184 213 240 4520 11485 25056 23469 65,865



TOTAL(TABLE4+3CountyAdditions) 0.20 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 0.3219 1.6093 3.2187 4.828 6.4374 8.0467 9.6561 11.2654 12.8748 14.4841 16.0935 32.1869 48.2804 64.3739 80.4674 Total N

6 0

289 2197 2670 970 993 1305 1483 1604 1810 24499 32716 42285 54491 167318 NNE 17 7

182 2074 3108 2189 1256 1482 1683 1919 2042 30032 42602 60008 71733 220334 NE 18 206 942 2274 3163 4101 4173 3264 2629 2133 2044 31398 57303 66766 44036 224450 ENE 18 388 1360 2275 3177 3685 4810 5637 6553 7428 7769 79890 127082 162410 188198 600680 E

18 416 1300 2281 3131 4047 4721 5884 5963 7686 8620 126294 167261 214072 222410 774104 ESE 18 436 1340 2279 3170 3833 3947 4116 6120 7239 7907 129688 153970 57824 36672 418559 SE 18 437 1359 2281 3065 4064 4843 5634 6707 7678 8602 119475 93636 252328 405548 915675 SSE 18 384 1353 1756 941 529 16 1539 1012 2040 3430 104939 514101 1473081 1300101 3405240 S

18 427 748 263 132 662 1641 3472 4407 4754 5484 144305 1242924 3983367 3377130 8769734 SSW 18 402 600 534 1815 3076 3782 4468 5201 5888 6573 216232 421982 984704 1104042 2759317 SW 18 232 200 1671 2427 3112 3814 4469 4654 5718 6551 195705 295525 210636 262627 997359 WSW 10 0

662 1733 2345 3121 3789 4284 4478 4542 4627 68762 223268 116440 91623 529684 W

3 0

913 1709 2420 3005 2527 1907 1519 1894 2167 34180 54403 65508 61244 233399 WNW 2

0 1001 1734 2396 1432 1211 1515 1606 1874 2210 34715 58248 61877 31718 201539 NW 2

48 1039 1695 2063 1037 1217 1442 1644 1901 2234 34763 58226 25663 23818 156792 NNW 3

53 864 1122 1693 790 1285 1502 1729 1907 2164 33789 34760 29456 36686 147803 TOTAL 205 3436 14152 27878 37716 39653 44025 51920 57388 66205 74234 1408666 3578007 7806425 7312077 20,521,987



19,228,712



(EntergySITETotal) 1.06726 Ratio

BASECASE - IP2 IP2 - IPEC SAMA MACCS2 Re-Analysis (IP-CALC-09-00265) Table 5 Dose and Cost Results (YR 2000 Met)

IP2 Freq Dose Dose Risk

% of Tot. Cost Cost Risk

% of Dose Dose Risk Source Term (per yr)

(sv)

(sv/year)

Total

($)

($/yr)

Total (rem)

(rem/year)

NCF 1.19E-05 4.75E+01 5.65E-04 0.06%

9.98E+04 1.19E+00 0.00%

4.75E+03 5.65E-02 Early High 6.50E-07 6.51E+05 4.23E-01 48.44%

2.05E+11 1.33E+05 62.87%

6.51E+07 4.23E+01 Early Medium 4.23E-07 1.94E+05 8.21E-02 9.39%

5.87E+10 2.48E+04 11.71%

1.94E+07 8.21E+00 Early Low 1.11E-07 7.93E+04 8.80E-03 1.01%

6.39E+09 7.09E+02 0.33%

7.93E+06 8.80E-01 Late High 6.88E-07 1.63E+05 1.12E-01 12.84%

4.64E+10 3.19E+04 15.06%

1.63E+07 1.12E+01 Late Medium 3.43E-06 6.87E+04 2.36E-01 26.98%

6.06E+09 2.08E+04 9.81%

6.87E+06 2.36E+01 Late Low 6.43E-07 1.61E+04 1.04E-02 1.19%

6.59E+08 4.24E+02 0.20%

1.61E+06 1.04E+00 Late Low Low 5.82E-08 1.38E+04 8.03E-04 0.09%

5.62E+08 3.27E+01 0.02%

1.38E+06 8.03E-02 Total 1.79E-05 8.74E-01 2.12E+05 1.19E+08 8.74E+01 Total (rem/yr) 8.74E+01 IP2 - Sensitivity Pop 2 = 100% Undercount & 100% Commuters & 3 County Peak - IPPOP2.out (10/8/2012)

Frequency Dose Dose Risk

% of Tot. Cost Cost Risk

% of Dose Dose Risk Source Term (per yr)

(sv)

(sv/year)

Total

($)

($/yr)

Total (rem)

(rem/year)

NCF 1.19E-05 5.06E+01 6.02E-04 0.06%

1.05E+05 1.25E+00 0.00%

5.06E+03 6.02E-02 Early High 6.50E-07 6.94E+05 4.51E-01 48.42%

2.19E+11 1.42E+05 62.91%

6.94E+07 4.51E+01 Early Medium 4.23E-07 2.07E+05 8.76E-02 9.40%

6.26E+10 2.65E+04 11.70%

2.07E+07 8.76E+00 Early Low 1.11E-07 8.47E+04 9.40E-03 1.01%

6.81E+09 7.56E+02 0.33%

8.47E+06 9.40E-01 Late High 6.88E-07 1.74E+05 1.20E-01 12.85%

4.95E+10 3.41E+04 15.05%

1.74E+07 1.20E+01 Late Medium 3.43E-06 7.33E+04 2.51E-01 26.98%

6.46E+09 2.22E+04 9.79%

7.33E+06 2.51E+01 Late Low 6.43E-07 1.72E+04 1.11E-02 1.19%

7.02E+08 4.51E+02 0.20%

1.72E+06 1.11E+00 Late Low Low 5.82E-08 1.47E+04 8.56E-04 0.09%

5.99E+08 3.49E+01 0.02%

1.47E+06 8.56E-02 Total 1.79E-05 9.32E-01 2.26E+05 9.32E+01 Total (rem/yr) 9.32E+01 delta base 6.66%

6.76%

CalculatePeakPopulationifPeakValueofthreecountiesisusedassurrogatefor2035population.

Transient/Perm

2035ProjPop PeakPopulation PeakYear Ratio RevisedPopulation County ENERCONTable2.3 ENERCONTable2.1 ENERCONTable2.3 NewYork 1,592,688 1,606,718 2020 0.014 1,629,212



Rockland 285,484 291,706 2010 0.024 298,707



Westchester 936,873 926,798 2010 0.024 949,041



Total 2,815,045 Total 2,876,960



Increase 61,915



(usingpeakpopulation For3Counties Previous50MilePopulation 19,228,712 Revised50MilePopulaion 19,290,627



%Increase 0.3%

50milepopulation

Table3ofEntergyIPRPT0900044Rev0(ENT000459)

EstimatedPresentDollarValueEquivalentofInterntalEventsCDFatIP2 Parameter PresentDollarValue($)

%ofTotal OffsitePopDose 1,881,355 41.4%

OffsiteEconCosts 2,281,735 50.2%

OnsiteDose 6,814 0.1%

OnsiteEconCosts 374,303 8.2%

Total 4,544,208 100.0%

Thispercentageincreasewouldbecarriedforwardwhenthemultiplierforexternale

Pop2SensImpact IncreaseFactor PresentDollarValue($)

Comment 1.0666 2,006,685



1.0676 2,436,010



1.0 6,814 Onsitenotimpacted 1.0 374,303 Onsitenotimpacted 4,823,812



InternalEvents 6.15% IncreaseonTotal eventsanduncertainyisincluded.

Dr.ShepherdTable1Data(NYS000209,page8)ForReferenceOnly Pct within Resident Transient County 50mi.

Pop Pop Undercount Commuters TotalPop Fairfield 100 918,600 14,228 5,701 52,388 990,917 Litchfield 41.5 90,183 1,397 114 20,633 112,328 NewHaven 32.9 294,904 4,568 1,823 85,165 386,459 Bergen 100 1,089,428 25,448 7,056 30,893 1,152,826 Essex 100 868,715 20,292 14,474 62,809 966,290 Hudson 100 690,981 16,140 9,208 30,913 747,242 Middlesex 1.8 18,963 443 180 7,739 27,325 Morris 80.8 527,786 12,328 2,026 83,176 625,317 Passaic 100 553,404 12,926 6,255 12,135 584,721 Somerset 4.5 21,156 494 131 9,169 30,950 Sussex 93.9 204,652 4,780 262 9,762 219,456 Union 92.9 548,682 12,816 5,369 69,446 636,315 Warren 0.5 780 18 1

256 1,056 Bronx 100 1,634,750 22,930 34,396 6,683 1,698,759 Dutchess 88.9 283,939 6,809 1,392 18,957 311,096 Kings 100 2,618,418 36,727 46,188 34,740 2,736,073 Nassau 97.9 1,225,359 29,384 7,610 78,710 1,341,063 NewYork 100 1,570,657 22,031 21,506 154,793 1,768,987 Orange 100 445,234 10,676 2,177 14,410 472,498 Putnam 100 120,738 2,895 222 1,251 125,106 Queens 100 3,024,717 42,426 50,742 47,269 3,165,154 Richmond 65.4 433,496 6,080 2,914 37,816 480,305 Rockland 100 278,799 6,685 1,931 1,779 289,195 Suffolk 21.3 317,533 7,614 1,467 87,491 414,106 Sullivan 36.3 34,142 819 150 6,724 41,835 Ulster 58.1 129,363 3,102 430 19,466 152,360 Westchester 100 914,934 21,939 7,865 8,702 953,440 Pike 18.7 19,343 3,222 40 2,503 25,108 Total 18,879,657 349,218 231,632 995,778 20,456,285 Check 18,879,656 349,217 231,630 995,778 20,456,287