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#REDIRECT [[NL-13-1605, IEM/TEC12-1003, Evacuation Time Estimates for the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant]]
| number = ML13214A044
| issue date = 07/31/2013
| title = IEM/TEC12-1003, Evacuation Time Estimates for the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant
| author name =
| author affiliation = IEM, Inc
| addressee name = Boone C
| addressee affiliation = NRC/NRR, Southern Nuclear Operating Co, Inc
| docket = 05000424, 05000425
| license number =
| contact person =
| case reference number = NL-13-1605
| document report number = IEM/TEC12-1003
| document type = Evacuation Time Estimate/Report (ETE)
| page count = 128
}}
 
=Text=
{{#Wiki_filter:Vogtle Electric Generating Plant -Units 1 and 2Evacuation Time Estimate UpdateEnclosure Evacuation Time Estimate for the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant November 2012, Revised July 2013Evacuation Time Estimates for theVogtle Electric Generating PlantIEM/TEC12-1003 Prepared ForMr. Chris BooneSouthern Nuclear Operating
: Company, Inc.P. 0. Box 1295Birmingham, AL 35201Voice: (205) 992-6635Prepared ByIEM, Inc.2400 Ellis RoadSuite 200Research Triangle Park, NC 27709Voice: (919) 990-8191Prepared UnderPurchase Order: SNC 10030793, Item # 001PTV Vision@ is a registered trademark of PTV AG. TIGER is a registered trademark of theU.S. Census Bureau. NAVTEQTMis a trademark of NAVTEQ.
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EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTEXEcvillVE SUMMARYIn order to ensure the safety of the public living in the vicinity of nuclear power plants inthe nation, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires the plants to updatetheir evacuation times estimates (ETEs) within the 10-mile radius plume exposurepathway emergency planning zone (EPZ) as local conditions change (e.g., significant changes in population, change in the type of effectiveness of public notification system,etc.).Southern Nuclear Operating Company (SNC) contracted IEM to estimate evacuation times for the 2012 populations within the 10-mile plume exposure pathway EPZsurrounding the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant (VEGP). This document describes themethods used to obtain population data and to estimate evacuation times. It also reportsthe estimated population
: figures, evacuation road network information, and ETEs.In compliance with the guidelines outlined in the NRC's Criteria for Development ofEvacuation Time Estimate Studies (NUREG/CR-7002),
this report breaks down thepopulation by geographic areas and protective action zones (PAZ).I As described inNUREG/CR-7002, three population segments have been identified in this report:permanent residents and transient population; transit dependent permanent residents; andschool populations.
No special facilities were found within the EPZ. The permanent resident population is made up of individuals residing in the 10-mile EPZ. The total year2012 permanent resident populations within the 10-mile EPZ for VEGP are estimated tobe 3,080. The transient population consists of workers employed within the area,recreational sportsmen, and visitors.
The total peak transient population within the 10-mile EPZ is estimated to be 2,915. Only one school, Lord's House of Praise Christian School, was identified in the VEGP EPZ. IEM contacted the school to collect currentenrollment, staff figures, and the evacuation plan. The total peak population for theschool in the EPZ is estimated to be 70. Transit dependent permanent residents in theEPZ are estimated to be 29. This study also considered the voluntary
: evacuees, who arealso known as shadow evacuees that reside within 10 to 15 miles from VEGP.IEM used PTV Vision VISUM-a computer traffic simulation model-to perform theETE analyses.
For the analyses, the 10-mile plume exposure pathway EPZ was dividedinto 17 unique geographic areas based on two-mile, five-mile, and ten-mile radius rings,the 16 22.5-degree PAZs, as well as keyhole and staged evacuation logic. In order torepresent the most realistic emergency scenarios, evacuations for the 17 geographic evacuation areas were modeled individually for the midweek daytime, midweek -weekend evening, and weekend daytime scenarios.
Each of these scenarios was thenconsidered under both normal and adverse weather conditions using the 2012 population estimations.
A total of 102 evacuation scenarios were considered as part of this study torepresent different wind, temporal, seasonal and weather conditions.
NRC. Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies.
NUREG/CR-7002.
November 2011. Online:http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/contractlcr7002/
(last accessed October 12, 2012).IEM 201.2Page i Evacuation Time Estimates for the Vogtle Electric Generating PlantBoth 100% and 90% ETEs for each scenario were collected.
The 100% ETEs for theevacuation areas ranged from 1 hour 30 minutes to 3 hours 25 minutes for the normalscenarios, and from 1 hour 30 minutes to 3 hours 25 minutes for those occurring inadverse weather.
The 90% ETEs for the evacuation areas ranged from 1 hour 20 minutesto 2 hours 20 minutes for the normal scenarios, and from 1 hour 20 minutes to 2 hours 25minutes for those occurring in adverse weather.
The factors that contributed to thevariations in ETEs between scenarios include differences in the number of evacuating
: vehicles, the capacity of the evacuation routes used, and the distance from the originzones to the EPZ boundary.
Based on the data gathered and the results of the evacuation simulations, the existingevacuation strategy is functional for the 2012 conditions, given the lack of severecongestion or very high ETEs. However, the following recommendations will helpemergency managers to improve the evacuation times from an event at VEGP:" Continue working through existing public outreach efforts to educate residents ofhow best to evacuate the EPZ and to clearly identify the location of the reception centers." Use traffic control points (TCP) to facilitate flow in the areas (e.g., intersection ofThompson Bridge Rd and GA-24) where vehicles might otherwise have to slow dueto congestion and traffic signals." Developing comprehensive regional evacuation plans and/or working with local andstate road/transportation departments to suggest improvements to the roadinfrastructure can contribute to a more successful evacuation.
Note:This report was updated in July 2013 to modify the assumptions for school evacuation timing to be consistent with NUREG/CR-7002.
Page ii IEM 2012Page iiIEM 201.2 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTABLE OF CONTENTS1.0 Introduction
.......................................................................................................
11.1. Site Location
......................................................................................................
11.2. Emergency Planning Zone ...............................................................................
31.3. Comparison with Previous ETE Study ...........................................................
42.0 Assum ptions and M ethodology
..................................................................
72.1. General Assumptions
.........................................................................................
72.2. M ethodology
......................................................................................................
82.3. Sources of Data .................................................................................................
82.4. Scenarios M odeled .............................................................................................
92.5. Evacuation Areas M odeled .............................................................................
123.0 Population and Vehicle Demand Estimation
........................................
153.1. Permanent Residents
......................................................................................
153.1.1. Auto-Owning Population
..................................................................................................
173.1.2. Non-Auto-Owning Population
.........................................................................................
173.1.3. Resident Population Summary .........................................................................................
173.2. Transient Populations
.....................................................................................
193 .2 .1. T ransient F acilities
................................................................................................................
2 13.3. Transit Dependent Permanent Residents
......................................................
223.4. Special Facility and School Populations
........................................................
233.5. Vehicle Occupancy Rate ..................................................................................
253.6. Sum mary of Demand Estimation
.................................................................
254.0 Evacuation Roadw ay Network ..................................................................
274.1. Network Definition
..........................................................................................
284.2. Evacuation Route Descriptions
.....................................................................
294.3. Evacuation Network Characteristics
.............................................................
315.0 Evacuation Tim e Estim ate M ethodology
................................................
355.1. Loading of the Evacuation Network .............................................................
355.1.1. Trip Generation Events and Activities
..............................................................................
355.1.2. Trip Generation Time Estimate
......................................................................................
385.1.3. Trip Generation Time for Transit Dependent Permanent Residents
................................
405.1.4. Trip Generation Time for Schools ..................................................................................
41IEM 2012Page ill Evacuation Time Estimates for the Vogtle Electric Generating Plant5.2. Evacuation Simulation
...................................................................................
425.2.1. The Demand Model ........................................................................................................
425.2.2. The Network Model .........................................................................................................
425.2.3. T he Im pact M odel ................................................................................................................
476.0 Analysis of Evacuation Tim es ..................................................................
496.1. Summary of ETE Results for General Public .............................................
496.2. Discussion of Scenario Results ......................................................................
526 .2 .1. G eneral T rend s .....................................................................................................................
5 26.2.2. Evacuation Area: 0-2 Miles .............................................................................................
536.2.3. Evacuation Area: 0-5 Miles .............................................................................................
536.2.4. Evacuation Area: 0-10 Miles ...........................................................................................
536.3. ETE Results for Transit Dependent Permanent Residents
........................
546.4. ETE Results for School Population
...............................................................
546.5. Example M odel Output ..................................................................................
547.0 Supplem ental Analysis
............................................................................
587.1. Confirmation of Evacuation
..........................................................................
587.2. Evacuation Traffic Management Locations and Other Potential Mitigating M easures ...............................................................................................................
598.0 Sensitivity Study on Population Change ................................................
629.0 Conclusion and Recom m endations
........................................................
649.1. Summary of Recommendations
....................................................................
64Appendix A: Geographical Boundaries of Evacuation Zones ........................
A-1Appendix B: Evacuation Network Links (Detailed Information)
....................
B-IAppendix C: Telephone Survey .........................................................................
C-1Introduction
...................................................................................................................
C-1Survey Instrument and Sampling Plan ..................................................................
C-1Survey Results ...............................................................................................................
C-2Appendix D: PTV Vision Quality Assurance and Industry Acceptance Inform ation ...........................................................................................................
D-1Appendix E: ETE Review Criteria Checklist
.......................................................
E-1Page ivIEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTables and FiguresFigure 1: Vogtle Electric Generating Plant Site Location
.......................................................................
2Figure 2: VEGP EPZ Boundary and Protective Action Zones ................................................................
4Table 1: ETE Com parison Chart .......................................................................................................................
4Table 2: ETE Scenarios Modeled*
............................................................................................................
10Table 3: Evacuation Areas for a Staged Evacuation Keyhole .............................................................
13Figure 3: Example of the Area Ratio Method Applied to a Census Block Divided into Sub-Areas
..... 16Table 4: 2012 Permanent Resident Population Distributions by Sector and Ring ..........................
17Figure 4:2012 VEGP Sector and Ring Permanent Resident Population Map ..................................
18Table 5: 2012 Permanent Resident Population Distributions by Zones ...........................................
19Table 6: 2012 Transient Population Distributions by Sector and Ring ..............................................
20Figure 5:2012 VEGP Sector and Ring Transient Populations Map ...................................................
20Table 7: 2012 Transient Population Distributions by Zones ..............................................................
21Table 8: 2012 Peak and Average Transient Population
......................................................................
22Table 9: Transit Dependent Permanent Residents
...............................................................................
22Table 10: Transit Dependent Permanent Resident Evacuation Information
...................................
23Table 11: School Locations
............................................................................................................................
23Table 12: School Evacuation Information
...............................................................................................
23Figure 6: Map of Schools within the EPZ ...............................................................................................
24Table 13: Vehicle Occupancy Rates by Population Categories
...........................................................
25Table 14: Population Summary Table ....................................................................................................
25Table 15: Vehicle Summary Table .........................................................................................................
26Figure 7: VEGP Evacuation Network .......................................................................................................
28Table 16: Reception Centers .........................................................................................................................
30Figure 8: Designated Evacuation Routes and Reception Centers .....................................................
31Table 17: Intersection Control Type .......................................................................................................
32Table 18: Information for Ten Highest Volume Intersections
..............................................................
33Figure 9: Evacuation Events and Activity Series for Transients, Special Facilities (Series A) ........
36Figure 10: Evacuation Events and Activity Series for Residences without Family Members Returning H om e (Series B) ...............................................................................................................................................
3 6IEM 2012 Page vIEM 2012Page v Evacuation Time Estimates for the Vogtle Electric Generating PlantFigure 11: Evacuation Events and Activity Series for Residences with Family Members Returning H om e (Series C) ...............................................................................................................................................
3 7Table 19: Trip Generation Estimate for Different Evacuation Activity Series ..................................
37Figure 12: Notification Times for Selected Alert and Notification Systems ......................................
39Figure 13: Distribution of Trip Generation Times by Population Group .............................................
40Table 20: Trip Generation Time for Transit Dependent Permanent Residents
................................
41Table 21: Trip Generation Time for Population in Schools ...................................................................
41Figure 14: ETEs Analysis Framework Using VISUM ..............................................................................
42Figure 15: Roadway Type Classification Method ..................................................................................
44Table 22: Grade Adjustment Factors (fG) ....................................................................................................
45Table 23: Adjustment (fnp) for Effect of No-Passing Zones on Average Travel Speed on Two-WayS egm ents ..........................................................................................................................................................
4 6Table 24: 2012 100% ETEs in Minutes ..................................................................................................
50Table 25:2012 90% ETEs in Minutes ....................................................................................................
51Table 26: Transit Dependent Permanent Resident Evacuation Times ..............................................
54Table 27: School Evacuation Times ..........................................................................................................
54Table 28: Total Volumes and Hourly Percents at Exit Roads .............................................................
56Figure 16: Mobilization and Evacuation Curve ....................................................................................
56Table 29: Average Speed for Different Evacuation Routes .................................................................
57Table 30: Georgia Traffic Control Points for the VEGP EPZ ......................................................................
59Table 31: South Carolina Traffic Control Points for the VEGP EPZ ...................................................
60Figure 17: Traffic Control Points in and around VEGP EPZ ................................................................
61Table 32: Geographical Boundaries of VEGP EPZ Evacuation Zones ..............................................
A-1Figure 18: Detailed Roadway Nodes and Links -Southeast Quadrant
............................................
B-1Figure 19: Detailed Roadway Nodes and Links -Southwest Quadrant
................................................
B-2Figure 20: Detailed Roadway Nodes and Links -Northwest Quadrant
................................................
B-3Figure 21: Detailed Roadway Nodes and Links -Northeast Quadrant
.................................................
B-4Table 33: Glossary of Terms for Roadway Links Inputs .....................................................................
B-5Table 34: Roadway Network Characteristics
.............................................................................................
B-5Table 35: Household Size ..............................................................................................................................
C-2Figure 22: Household Size ............................................................................................................................
C-2Page viIEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 36: Percentage of Cars Used to Evacuate During the Day ............................................................
C-3Figure 23: Number of cars used to evacuate during the day ..................................................................
C-3Table 37: Percentage of Cars Used to Evacuate at Night ........................................................................
C-4Figure 24: Number of cars used to evacuate at night ..............................................................................
C-4Table 38: Percentage of Cars Used to Evacuate on Weekends
..............................................................
C-5Figure 25: Number of cars used to evacuate on weekends
....................................................................
C-5Table 39: Percentage who rely on public transportation to evacuate
...................................................
C-6Figure 26: Number who rely on public transportation to evacuate
........................................................
C-6Table 40: Percentage of Respondents who indicated there are commuters in the family ................
C-7Figure 27: Number who commutes at least 4 times per week ...............................................................
C-7Table 41: Time to Return Home from Work ...............................................................................................
C-8Figure 28: Time it takes to return home from work ..................................................................................
C-8Table 42: Percentage who would Evacuate or Wait .................................................................................
C-8Table 43: Time to Complete Evacuation Preparations during the Day ..................................................
C-9Figure 29: Time it takes to complete evacuation preparations during the day ...................................
C-9Table 44: Time to Complete Evacuation Preparations at Night ......................................................
C-10Figure 30: Time it takes to complete evacuation preparations at night ........................................
C-10Table 45: Time to Complete Evacuation Preparations on Weekends
...........................................
C-11Figure 31: Time it takes to complete evacuation preparations on the weekends
.......................
C-11Table 46: Percentage of Respondents who indicated a family member needs assistance
............
C-12Figure 32: Number of family members who require evacuation assistance
.....................................
C-12Table 47: Percentage of Respondents who indicated a family member needs assistance
............
C-13Figure 33: Type of Evacuation Assistance Required
..............................................................................
C-13Table 48: NUREG/CR-7002 ETE Review Criteria Checklist
................................................................
E-1IEM 2012 Page viiIEM 2012Page vii Evacuation Time Estimates for the Vogtle Electric Generating PlantThis page intentionally left blank.Page viii IEM 2012Page viiiIEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTThe Vogtle Electric Generating Plant (VEGP) is a two-unit pressurized water reactoroperated by Southern Nuclear Operating Company (SNC). In order to ensure the safety ofthe public living in the vicinity of the power plant, the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) requires nuclear power plants in the nation to conduct evacuation studies for the population within the 10-mile radius plume exposure pathway emergency planning zone (EPZ) at regular intervals.
This population evacuation study fulfillsregulatory requirements outlined in the NRC Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies (NUREG/CR-7002).
2SNC contracted LEM to perform a population evacuation study for the 10-mile radiusplume exposure pathway EPZ surrounding VEGP. This document presents the results ofthat study. It describes the assumptions and methodologies used by IEM to obtainpopulation and evacuation network data and to perform evacuation time estimates (ETE)analyses.
ETEs in this evacuation study incorporate the actual population numbers3 forthe year 2012. This document reports the updated population
: figures, evacuation roadnetwork information, and ETEs.The study is consistent with the requirements specified in NUREG/CR-7002 guidelines.
The study is intended to provide information for State and local officials, and VEGPemergency management personnel to effectively plan for an accidental event at the plant.1.1. Site LocationVEGP is located on the southwestern bank of the Savannah River in Burke County,Georgia.
The plant is approximately 15 miles east-northeast of the City of Waynesboro.
The small town of Girard is approximately seven miles south of the plant. The closestpopulation center is the town of Sardis, which is approximately 12 miles south of theplant. Figure 1 shows location of the VEGP site.2 NRC. Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies (NUREG/CR-7002) guidelines.
November2011.3 SNC 2012 first-quarter population estimates IEM 2012Page I EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTFigure 1: Vogtle Electric Generating Plant Site LocationPage 2 IEM 2012Page 2IEM 201L2 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT1.2. Emergency Planning ZoneThe plume exposure pathway EPZ includes the majority of the 10-mile geographic areasurrounding VEGP. The VEGP EPZ covers areas in both Georgia and South Carolina.
The land within the plume exposure pathway is divided almost equally by the SavannahRiver. The EPZ covers portions of the counties of Burke and Richmond,
: Georgia, andBarnwell, Allendale, and Aiken, South Carolina.
Burke County has the largest residentpopulation within the EPZ. This population is small and dispersed.
The major portion of the EPZ in South Carolina is within the United States Department of Energy's (DOE) Savannah River Site (SRS). DOE's Savannah River Operations Office(DOE-SR),
pursuant to a memorandum of agreement 4 between Georgia Power Company(GPC), as assigned to SNC, will be responsible for all emergency response actions on theSRS whenever an emergency occurs at VEGP. For this reason, a portion of the VEGPEPZ located in Barnwell County in South Carolina contained by the DOE-SR facility isnot included in the study.The areas in South Carolina that are not Federally-owned or controlled are along theSavannah River lowlands in Aiken, Allendale, and Barnwell counties.
The segment inAiken County, approximately 8-10 miles north-northwest of VEGP, is part of theCowden Plantation, which has no resident population.
The segments in Barnwell andAllendale
: counties, approximately 9-10 miles east-southeast of VEGP, are largelycomprised of portions of the Creek Plantation, a horse farm. Within the South Carolinaportion of the EPZ, the only housing is located within the Creek Plantation in BarnwellCounty, where there are only a limited number of permanent residences.
The State of Georgia Radiological Emergency Plan (REP)5 and VEGP Emergency Planare the bases for the geographical and political boundaries for the EPZ. For evacuation and emergency response planning
: purposes, the 10-mile radius plume exposure pathwayEPZ has been divided into 13 Emergency Response Planning Areas (ERPAs) known asprotective action zones (PAZ).6 The PAZ descriptions were obtained and verified fromthe VEGP Emergency Plan, VEGP's 2012 emergency information calendar7, countyREP8 , and discussions with both SNC and VEGP representatives.
The PAZs wereselected based on existing political boundaries and prominent physical features-either natural (e.g., rivers and lakes) or man-made (e.g., roads and bridges)-to enhancedirection and coordination of the public in the affected area. Figure 2 shows a map of thePAZs for VEGP. Appendix A of this document contains boundary descriptions of thePAZs within the 10-mile plume exposure pathway EPZ of the plant.4 A copy of the memorandum of agreement is located in the SNC planning office.5 State of Georgia Radiological Emergency Plan (REP) -Annex D -Plant Vogtle. Georgia Emergency Management Agency. January 2009.6 Protective Action Zone is also referred to as "Zone" in this document.
7 2012 Vogtle Electric Generating Plant Emergency Information Calendar.
8 Annex D -Plant Vogtle -Burke County Emergency Management Radiological Plan. May 2009. (Obtained fromState of Georgia REP).IEM 2012Page 3 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTFigure 2: VEGP EPZ Boundary and Protective Action Zones1.3. Comparison with Previous ETE StudyTable 1 identifies information that is useful in comparing the 2006 and 2012 ETE studies.Note that the 2006 ETE study was modeled using both 2006 and 2010 estimated population data. For comparison
: purpose, Table 1 lists the information for the 2010estimated population from the 2006 study, as well as the 2012 population from this study.Table 1: ETE Comparison ChartPermanent Residents
-Total Population 3,224 3,080-Vehicle Occupancy Rate 2.75 1.7-1.8Page 4 IEM 2012Page 4IEM 201.2 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTETE Element Previous ETE (for 2010) Updated-ETE (for 2012)Transit Dependent Population
-Total Population 0 29-Number of Buses/Standard Vans 0 86-Number of Ambulances 0 12-Number of Special Equipped Vehicles 0 5Transient Population
-Total Population 753 871Special Facilities 9-Total Population 0 0-Number of Buses N/A N/A-Other Transportation Resources N/A N/ASchools-Total Student Population 50 50-Number of Buses 2 2Shadow Evacuation Percent Estimated 0 20%Special Event(s)-Population N/A N/A-Location N/A N/A-Duration N/A N/AAdverse Weather (rain, snow, ice, fog) Heavy Rain Heavy RainEvacuation Model -name and version VISUM 10 VISUM11Scenarios Combination of time Combination of time(Weekday, Weeknight, (Weekday, Weeknight, Weekend) and weather Weekend) and weather(adverse and normal) (adverse and normal)9 No special facilities, as defined in NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in the 10-mile EPZ.IEM 2012 Page 5IEM 2012Page 5 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTETE Element Previous ETE (for 2010) UpdatedlETtE(for 2012)Assumptions
* One evacuation vehicle
* Vehicle occupancy ratesper household for for residents are based onresidents telephone survey" Mobilization time for
* Mobilization time forresident and transient resident and transient population are based on population are based onliterature 1o telephone survey" No shadow evacuation
* 20% of residents in 10-15considered mile ring are shadowevacuees1o Rogers, G. 0., et al., Evaluating Protective Actions for Chemical Agent Emergencies (ORNL-6615).
Oak Ridge,TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1990.Page 6IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT* .0- ASSUM;PT IONS AND MET HODOLOGY2.1. General Assumptions IEM made the following general assumptions to model the population evacuation study:" The ETEs include the times associated with warning diffusion, public mobilization, and travel time out of the EPZ. The ETE is measured from the time that instructions were first made available to the public within the EPZ (e.g., initial emergency alertsystem [EAS] broadcast).
Mobilization of the public begins after initial notification.
" Following initial notification, all persons within the EPZ will evacuate.
100% ETEwill be considered as the time when all evacuating vehicles are outside the EPZ. 90%ETE will be considered as the time when 90% of the evacuating vehicles are outsidethe EPZ." Existing lane utilization patterns will prevail during the course of the evacuation.
There will be traffic control points (TCP) in the network to allow efficient flow oftraffic toward the reception centers." Reception centers are modeled as defined in the 2012 emergency information calendar.
" Non-auto-owning households will evacuate with neighbors,
: friends, and relatives, orthey will be evacuated through coordinated efforts by State and county emergency management officials.
This is also consistent with the 2012 emergency information calendar and county REP." The major adverse weather condition in the area is considered as heavy rain. Tomodel the population evacuation during adverse weather conditions, the free flowspeeds are reduced by 15%, and the road capacities are reduced by 10%." The evacuation is ordered promptly and no early protective actions have beenimplemented.
" There is only one school in the EPZ. Initial notification will be received the sametime as the general public within the EPZ." A shadow evacuation of 20% of the permanent resident population was assumed tooccur in areas outside of the evacuation area being assessed extending to 15 milesfrom the VEGP. The vehicle occupancy rates and trip generation times of shadowevacuees are consistent with those of the residents within the EPZ." Information such as the number of vehicles by the residents during the evacuation andmobilization times are estimated based on a telephone survey on the residents withinthe EPZ." Located in a rural area, there is little pass-through traffic and the majority of the tripsare home-work trips made by the local residents within the EPZ. Due to this nature,IEM assumed that minimum background traffic would exist after the evacuees start toIEM 2012Page 7 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTload into the roadway network.
No significant impact of pass-through traffic on theETEs is expected.
" Buses used to evacuate schools and special facilities are loaded to capacity.
" Shadow evacuation of 20% of the residents in 10-15 mile ring would occur when anevacuation order is issued.2.2. Methodology IEM used PTV Vision VISUM (version 11), a computer simulation model, to perform theETEs for the VEGP site.'" PTV Vision is the leading software suite for transportation planning and operations analyses used in more than 70 countries.
Detailed information onthe evacuation time analysis methodology using PTV Vision is provided in Section 5.2.PTV Vision quality assurance and industry acceptance information is provided inAppendix D.2.3. Sources of DataThe most up-to-date data sources were reviewed and analyzed to prepare appropriate input data for running the traffic simulation and providing the best ETEs. The datasources are explained below:" Geographical and political boundaries for the EPZ were obtained from the State ofGeorgia REP plan." The 13 PAZ descriptions were obtained and verified from VEGP's 2012 emergency information calendar 12, the GA REP , the county REP14, and discussions with SNCand VEGP representatives.
" The 2012 population estimates, as well as business location data, were obtained fromthe 2010 U.S. Census Bureau, the 2012 Plant VEGP Tone Alert Radio (TAR)Database, and the population estimates from Synergos Technologies, Inc.,5" The peak and average estimated employment level at VEGP obtained from SNCrepresentatives reflects office and operations personnel.
" Roadway geometric data was obtained from PTV. PTV data is based on high-quality, regularly
: updated, NAVTEQ street network data. NAVTEQ networks are detailedand include neighborhood streets in every community in North America.
This datawas validated by IEM during a "ground truthing" field trip in April 2012." Roadway and intersection approach capacities were calculated using the concepts andprocedures defined in the Highway Capacity Manual16 published by theTransportation Research Board.PTV Vision can be found online at http://www.ptvamerica.com.
12 2012 Vogtle Electric Generating Plant Emergency Information Calendar.
13 State of Georgia Radiological Emergency Plan -Annex D -Plant Vogtle. Georgia Emergency Management Agency. January 2009.14 Annex D -Plant Vogtle -Burke County Emergency Management Radiological Plan. May 2009. (Obtained fromState of Georgia REP).15 Synergos Technologies, Inc. Online: http://www.synergos-tech.com.
16 Transportation Research Board, National Research Council.
Highway Capacity Manual. Washington, D.C. 2000.Page 8IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT" Warning diffusion and mobilization times were based on the data presented inEvaluating Protective Actions for Chemical Agent Emergencies1 7 published by theOak Ridge National Laboratory.
The data in this report was collected duringevacuations executed in response to large-scale chemical spills, and explicitly incorporates the time required for communication of the warning (warning diffusion) and the time required for an individual to respond to the warning (mobilization).
Thedata collected in this meta-study were based on permanent residents and transient populations.
Section 5.1 of this report provides more information on warningdiffusion and mobilization time assumptions.
" Vehicle occupancy rates for the different population categories were derived based ontelephone surveys and discussions with the counties' and plant's emergency planningstaffs. Section 5.1.1 provides more information on population and vehicle demandassumptions.
" Agencies participating in the study are provided below. These agencies participated inan initial briefing for the study and provided input regarding specifics for the data andassumptions for the ETE within their jurisdiction.
* South Carolina Emergency Management Division* Aiken County Emergency Management Division* Barnwell County Emergency Management Agency* Allendale County Emergency Management Agency* Georgia Emergency Management Agency* Burke County Emergency Management Agency2.4. Scenarios ModeledIn accordance with NUREG/CR-7002 guidelines, ETEs for each of the evacuation areas(refer to Table 3) have been prepared for different temporal and weather conditions.
Based on the discussion with the SNC emergency planning staff, estimates have beenprepared for both normal and adverse weather conditions for midweek daytime, midweek-weekend night, and weekend daytime.Normal weather refers to conditions where roads are clear and dry and visibility is notimpaired.
Adverse weather refers to rainy or snowy conditions where road capacities arereduced by 10% and speed limits are reduced by 15%.Evacuation conditions are modeled for the populations of the year 2012, in addition to theconstruction workforce for the new units being built at the VEGP site. Table 2 presentsthe snapshot of the ETE scenarios that were modeled for the study.17 Rogers, G. 0., et al., Evaluating Protective Actions for Chemical Agent Emergencies (ORNL-6615).
Oak Ridge,TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1990.IEM 2012Page 9 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 2: ETE Scenarios Modeled*Scenario Day Time Weather1 Midweek Daytime Normal2 Midweek Daytime Adverse3 Midweek and Weekend Night Normal4 Midweek and Weekend Night Adverse5 Weekend Daytime Normal6 Weekend Daytime Adverse* Per discussions with SNC emergency planning staff special events and seasonalvariation scenarios were not modeled.
: However, peak recreational population numberswere used for the weekend scenarios (5 and 6). This condition would most likely occurduring any weekend day during the hunting season (i.e., September 15 through January6), when there would be a large number of hunters andlfishermen at various points alongthe Savannah River.The various population components for different scenarios are summarized below:" Midweek Daytime -Normal Weather:
This situation represents a typical normalweather weekday period when the workforce is at a full daytime level. Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include the following:
* Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence.
* The plant site employment is at an estimated peak daytime level.* Workplaces are fully staffed at daytime levels.* Schools are in session.* Recreational activities, such as hunting and fishing, are at daytime levels." Midweek Daytime -Adverse Weather:
This situation represents an adverseweather weekday period when the workforce is at a full daytime level. Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include the following:
* Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence.
* The plant site employment is at an estimated peak daytime level.* Workplaces are fully staffed at daytime levels.* Schools are in session." Midweek and Weekend Evening -Normal Weather:
This situation reflects atypical normal weather evening period when the workforce is at a nighttime level.Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include the following:
* Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence.
Page 10IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT* The plant site is staffed at an estimated peak nighttime level.* Workplaces are at nighttime levels.* Schools are closed.* There are no recreational (hunting and fishing) activities.
" Midweek and Weekend Evening -Adverse Weather:
This situation reflects anadverse weather evening period when the workforce is at a nighttime level.Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include the following:
* Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence.
* The plant site is staffed at an estimated peak nighttime level." Workplaces are at nighttime levels." Schools are closed.* There are no recreational (hunting and fishing) activities.
" Weekend Daytime -Normal Weather:
The normal weather weekend situation represents a daytime period when recreational activities are at peak levels. Thiscondition would most likely occur during any weekend day during the huntingseason. Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include the following:
* Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence.
* The plant site is at an estimated peak weekend level.* Workplaces are at weekend levels.* Schools are closed." Recreational (hunting and fishing) activities are at a peak estimated level." Weekend Daytime -Adverse Weather:
The adverse weather weekend situation represents a daytime period when recreational activities are at peak levels. Thiscondition would most likely occur during any weekend day during the huntingseason. Assumptions on the population levels for this condition include the following:
" Permanent residents within the EPZ will evacuate from their places of residence.
" The plant site is at an estimated peak weekend level.* Workplaces are at weekend levels.* Schools are closed.* Recreational (hunting and fishing) activities are at a peak estimated level.IEM 2012Page 11 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT2.5. Evacuation Areas ModeledNUREG/CR-7002 recommends that the EPZ be subdivided into evacuation areas forperforming the evacuation time estimate analyses.'8 As indicated in Table 3, eachevacuation area includes one or more affected PAZ's to support the various evacuation logic including keyhole and staged evacuations.
Based on the geography and political boundaries in the EPZ, 17 unique areas were defined by IEM for the VEGP EPZ, inagreement with the SNC personnel.
As shown in the lower part of Table 3, separateevacuation areas are modeled for the 0-2 mile zone and the 2-5 mile zone to supportprotective action decision making for a staged evacuation.
"8 NUREG/CR-7002.
Table 1-4, p.8.Page 12 IEM 2012Page 12IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 3: Evacuation Areas for a Staged Evacuation KeyholeAffected PAZs Evacuation AecPAs ea A B-5 C-5 D-5 E-5 F-5 B-IO C-10 D-I0 E-IO F-10 G-IO H-10*(ERPAs)
AreaA 0-2 miles XA, B-5, C-5, D-5, E-5, 0-5 miles X X X X X XF-5All Evacuation 0-10 miles, FullZones EPZEvacuate 2 to 5 miles downwindWind Direction Affected PAZs (EPRAs)(from) A B-5 C-5 D-5 E-5 F-5 B-1O C-1O 13-10 E-IO F-JO G-AO H-1OB-5 N XB-5, C-5 NNE X XC-5 NE XD-5 ENE XD-5, E-5 E X XE-5, F-5 ESE X XF-5 SE XF-5 SSE XF-5 S XN/A SSW -------------N/A SW -------------N/A WSW -------------N/A W -------------B-5 WNW XB-5 NW XIEM 2012Page 13 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTAffected PAZs Evacuation A B-5 C-5 D-5 E-5 F-5 B-1O C-10 D-IO E-IO F-IO G-IO H-IO(ERPAs) Area ... ...B-5 NNW XEvacuate 2-mile zone and 5-miles downwindWind Direction Affected PAZs (EPRAs)(from) A B-5 C-5 D-5 E-5 F-5 B-IO C-10 D-1O E-1O F-1O G-IO H-IOA, B-5 N X XA, B-5, C-5 NNE X X XA, C-5 NE X XA, D-5 ENE X XA, D-5, E-5 E X X XA, E-5, F-5 ESE X X XA, F-5 SE X XA, F-5 SSE X XA, F-5 S X XA SSW XA SW XA WSW XA W XA, B-5 WNW X XA, B-5 NW X XA, B-5 NNW X XPage 14 IEM 2012Page 14IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT'3.0' POPULATION AND VEHICLE DEMAND ESTIMATION IEM identified three population segments1 9 within the EPZ surrounding VEGP, asspecified in the NUREG/CR-7002 guidelines.
These populations include the permanent residents and transient population, transit dependent permanent residents, and schoolpopulation.
The permanent resident population is made up of individuals residing in the10-mile EPZ. The transient population is comprised of individuals working and/orvisiting within the EPZ but not living there. The transit dependent population includespermanent residents who do not have access to a vehicle or are dependent upon help fromoutside the home to evacuate (e.g., lift equipped vehicles or ambulances).
The schoolpopulation consists of students and staff and may require additional consideration in theevent of an evacuation.
VEGP is located in a densely-wooded rural area of Georgia.
There are no concentrated population
: centers, and there is minimal transient population within the 10-mile EPZ. Thetransient facilities include the VEGP and the recreational attraction sites that consist ofparks and the hunter/boater population.
There are no special facility populations withinthe 10-mile EPZ. The only school is a private school (The Lord's House of PraiseChristian School).The majority of the population consists of permanent residents,
: workers, school students, and a varying number of recreational visitors who are mainlylocated on or around the Savannah River.IEM derived the 2012 permanent population estimates, as well as business location data,from 2010 Census, the 2012 Plant Vogtle TAR Database, the SNC 2012 first-quarter population estimates, and the population estimates obtained from Synergos Technologies, Inc. Local school data was obtained through contact with the individual facility.
Therecreational visitors' population figures were based on discussions with the SNCemergency planning staff. After discussion with the appropriate facilities and the siteemergency planning personnel, it was estimated that the 2010 school and recreational user information applies to the year 2012 since no major change in the land use patternwithin the EPZ. These population estimates formed the basis for determining the evacueedemand used in the analyses for any given evacuation scenario.
The populations fromthese sources were assigned to each applicable zone.3.1. Permanent Residents IEM used GIS software to process the geographic data and associated population countsfor census blocks in each of the counties surrounding VEGP. IEM then aggregated thesepopulations over each zone to generate a permanent resident population count, which iscomprised of the nighttime population.
To calculate population by each zone and radial sector, census block populations wereaggregated within each of the sectors.
Since boundaries of the sectors do not followcensus block boundaries, many of the blocks had to be divided into sub-areas based on19 Special facilities, as defined in NUREG/CR-7002, were not identified in the 10-mile EPZ.IEM 20:12Page 15 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTsector boundaries.
To do this, IEM overlaid the census blocks with the zones and 10-mileradius sectors.
The blocks were then split into sub-areas and allocated the blockpopulation to the sub-areas based on an area ratio method. The populations of the blocksub-areas within the sector boundaries were then aggregated for each radius sector.The area ratio method assigns each sub-area a portion of the block population based onthe ratio of the area of each block part to the area of the entire block. For example, if aparticular sub-area contains one-fourth the area of the total block area, the sub-areareceives one-fourth of the block's total population.
Figure 3 illustrates this principle, inwhich one-fourth of the total area is located in the sub-area and it includes one-fourth ofthe population.
The area ratio method assumes that the population within the block isevenly distributed, a reasonable assumption in most cases.The populations of the block sub-areas within the sector boundaries were then aggregated for each sector. This method was also used in the few instances in which the zoneboundaries did not follow block boundaries, making it necessary to split blocks along aparticular zone boundary.
Additionally, the permanent resident population is divided intoauto-owning versus non-auto-owning populations.
Figure 3: Example of the Area Ratio Method Applied to a Census BlockDivided into Sub-Areas Page 16 IEM 2012Page 16IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT3.1.1. Auto-Owning Population IEM collected information for auto-owning population by conducting a telephone surveyof the residents within the VEGP EPZ. The survey indicates an average household size of2.6 persons for the VEGP EPZ. The collected data also indicate that 96% of thehouseholds within the EPZ have more than one vehicle per household.
Additionally, therespondents indicated that each household would use an average of 1.7 to 1.8 vehiclesduring the evacuation depending on the day of the week and time of the day.3.1.2. Non-Auto-Owning Population The telephone survey indicates that 4% of the households within the EPZ do not own avehicle.
It is assumed that privately-owned vehicles of friends and/or relatives will beavailable to evacuate the majority of this population component.
This assumption is usedsince it provides the most realistic representation of evacuation traffic generated from thenon-auto-owning households.
For an estimate of the vehicle demand associated with thenon-auto-owning population, IEM assumed one vehicle would be made available toevacuate each household.
This is based on the assumptions stated above that a familywould use a vehicle from neighbors,
: friends, and relatives, or they will be evacuated through coordinated efforts by county emergency management officials.
3.1.3. Resident Population SummaryTable 4 shows the distribution of the 2012 total permanent resident population (including the shadow evacuation population in the 10 to 15 mile area) by sector and ring, whileFigure 4 presents the same data for 2-5 mile, 5-10 mile, and 10-15 mile 22.5 degreesectors graphically.
Note that the population numbers in the box outside the 15 mileradius do not include the population within the 2 mile radius.Table 4: 2012 Permanent Resident Population Distributions by Sector and RingCumulative Population Mile Subtotal by Ring. Population 0-2 42 422-3 91 1333-4 155 2884-5 360 6485-6 367 1,0156-7 468 1,4837-8 722 2,2058-9 489 2,6949-10 554 3,24810-11 1,009 4,25711-12 1,878 6,135IEM 2012 Page 17IEM 2012Page 17 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT12-13 2,878 9,01313-14 3,103 12,11614-15 4,326 16,442Figure 4: 2012 VEGP Sector and Ring Permanent Resident Population MapPage 18 IEM 2012Page 18IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 5 shows the distribution of the permanent resident population by zone.Table 5: 2012 Permanent Resident Population Distributions by ZonesZone Permanent Resident Population A 71B-5 51B-IO 249C-5 31C-10 739D-5 93D-1O 588E-5 89E-10 510F-5 141F-IO 492G-IO 6H-1O 203.2. Transient Populations The transient population for the VEGP EPZ area is derived from a combination ofdaytime populations, recreation populations, and employment data. The employment datawas obtained from Synergos Technologies.
These populations were combined with othercontributors, such as the percentage of the population that is of working age, to daytimepopulation estimations and assigned to population centroids in a manner similar to thepermanent resident populations.
The daytime populations incorporate employment andworkforce information, such as county working-age population and unemployment statistics.
The recreational population shown for the VEGP site considers users of private land andwildlife management areas by hunters and fishermen along the Savannah River. Throughconversations with SNC's emergency planning staff, IEM estimated recreational population approximates within the EPZ. There are three public boat landings in theVEGP EPZ. Two are in Burke County, Georgia-the Vogtle Boat Landing in zone B-5and Brigham's Landing in zone B-10. The third boat landing is in Aiken County, SouthCarolina-Grays Landing located in zone G-10. It is estimated that there will be 200hunters/boaters in zones G-10 and H-10 during the hunting season.A vehicle occupancy rate of 1.0 was used to estimate the number of vehicles used byrecreational area users, such as hunters and fishermen.
IEM 2012 Page 19IEM 2012Page 19 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 6 shows the distribution of the transient population by sector and ring, while Figure5 presents the same data for 0-2 mile, 2-5 mile, and 5-10 mile 22.5 degree sectorsgraphically.
Note that the population numbers in the box outside the 15 mile radius do notinclude the population within the 2 mile radius.Table 6: 2012 Transient Population Distributions by Sector and Ring0-22,1732,1732-3 23 2,1963-4 56 2,2524-5 236 2,4885-6 114 2,6026-7 81 2,6837-8 96 2,7798-9 49 2,8289-10 79 2,907Figure 5: 2012 VEGP Sector and Ring Transient Populations MapPage 20 IEM 2012Page 20IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 7 shows the distribution of the transient population by zone.Table 7: 2012 Transient Population Distributions by ZonesZone Transient' Population A 2,173B-5 56B-10 44C-5 3C-10 12D-5 9D-10 32E-5 10E-10 96F-5 21F-10 59G-10 200H-10 2003.2.1. Transient Facilities The transient facilities consist of the VEGP site and a few hunter/boater recreational attraction sites. VEGP is the largest employer in the EPZ, which has peak number ofworkers at 2,882 during the weekdays.
The construction workforce at VGEP is dividedinto two categories:
permanent and temporary.
The permanent construction workerswould stay for a period of two years or longer and would bring families.
The temporary construction workers would stay for less than two years and would not bring family. Thepermanent construction workers are assumed to be housed outside the VEGP EPZ, andthe temporary construction workers are assumed to be housed inside the VEGP EPZ at atemporary housing location.
SNC emergency planners estimate that a total of 203temporary workers would be living at the temporary housing location in 2012.The peak recreational population occurs on fall weekend periods during the huntingseason (normally mid-September through early January).
It is estimated thatapproximately one seventh of peak recreational population is expected for other scenarios (weekday and weeknight).
Table 8 shows the peak and average transient populations.
IEM 20+/-2 Page 21IEM 2012Page 21 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 8: 2012 Peak and Average Transient Population Employer Vogtle Electric Generating Plant Burke A 2,882 898 25%Boat Landing Vogtle Boat Landing Burke B-5 50 8 50%Boat Landing Brigham's Landing Burke B-1O 50 8 50%Boat Landing Gray's Landing Aiken G-IO 50 8 50%3.3. Transit Dependent Permanent Residents The transit dependent population includes permanent residents who do not have access toa vehicle or are dependent upon help from outside the home to evacuate (e.g., liftequipped vehicles or ambulances).
The transit dependent permanent resident population in the VEGP EPZ was obtained from the county EMA through SNC emergency planningstaff. As shown in Table 9 there are 29 transit dependent permanent residents in the 10-mile EPZ. A roster of these individuals is maintained in the Burke County EOC. TheEMA Director maintains coordination with the County Health Department and CountyDepartment of Family and Children Services on maintenance of the roster anddispatching the Burke County Transit Authority to evacuate as needed.Table 9: Transit Dependent Permanent Residents Transit Dependent Category Burke County Aiken County Allendale County Barnwell CountyWheelchair 18 0 0 0Transportation 10 0 0 0Immobile 1 0 0 0To evacuate the transit dependent permanent residents, the Burke County Board ofEducation has 83 county school buses that will travel their regular routes to providetransportation to those individuals lacking personal transportation.-
0 The Burke CountyTransit Authority has three 14-passenger standard vans with low band radiocommunications, four 10-passenger coaches with wheelchair lifts and low band radiocommunications, and one 16-passenger coach with a wheelchair lift and low band radiocommunications.
In addition, the Burke County EMA has a total of 12 ambulances.
Thespecial equipped vehicles and ambulances will be dispatched directly to the homes ofnon-ambulatory individuals requiring special transportation.
The key information forevacuating the transit dependent population is shown in Table 10. The information shownincludes the number of transit dependent permanent residents by category, number ofevacuation vehicles by type and its mobilization time, and evacuee loading time.20 Annex D -Plant Vogtle -Burke County Emergency Management Radiological Plan. Attachment H -Evacuation and Sheltering..
May 2009.Page 22IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 10: Transit Dependent Permanent Resident Evacuation Information Transit Dependent Category Population Number of. Mobilization Time LoadingVehicles TimeWheelchair 18 5 15 min 5 minTransportation 10 8621 15 min 2 minImmobile 1 12 10 min 10 min3.4. Special Facility and School Populations No special facilities, as defined in NUREG/CR-7002, were found within the EPZ;however, LEM identified one private school-Lord's House of Praise Christian School-within the EPZ (Table 11). The key information for evacuating the population at thisfacility is shown in Table 12. The information shown includes the enrollment, number ofevacuation vehicles and its mobilization time, evacuee loading time and distance from thefacility to the EPZ boundary.
Although the school will require special consideration in an evacuation, it is estimated there are a sufficient number of evacuation vehicles available and no return trips areneeded. The Burke County Board of Education maintains all buses and equipment at thebus maintenance shop. The Burke County EMA Director will dispatch County busses tothe school if needed. All evacuees from the school will check in at the reception center atthe Burke County Comprehensive High School located at 1057 Perimeter Road inWaynesboro 22, prior to being evacuated to their final destination.
Figure 6 shows thelocation of these facilities.
Table 11: School Locations Facility Name Address City County ZoneLord's House of Praise Christian School 162 Daybreak Road Waynesboro Burke E-10Table 12: School Evacuation Information Population Number Mobilization
: Loading, Distance toSchool Name NmeStudent Staff of: Buses Time Time EPZBoundaryLord's House of Praise 50 20 2 15 min 25 min 1.4 miChristian School21 The number of vehicles available for transportation dependent residents include 83 county school buses and 3standard passenger vans.22 Annex D -Plant Vogtle -Burke County Emergency Management Radiological Plan. May 2009. Attachment H -Evaucaiton and Sheltering.
May 2009.IEM 2012Page 23 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTFigure 6: Map of Schools within the EPZPage 24 IEM 2012Page 24IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT3.5. Vehicle Occupancy RateDifferent vehicle occupancy rates (VOR) were used for the various categories ofpopulation (e.g., 1.7-1.8 vehicles per household for permanent residents).
All workerswere assumed to evacuate with a VOR of 1.25, whereas the recreational population wasassumed to evacuate with a VOR of 1.5. After consultation with SNC emergency
: planners, students were assumed to evacuate via two buses at a rate of 25 students perbus, with the remaining school population departing in their own cars (occupancy rate of1.0). Table 13 shows the VORs by different population categories used for the evacuation modeling.
Table 13: Vehicle Occupancy Rates by Population Categories Population:
Category Population Subtype Vehicle Occupancy-Rate Permanent Residents Auto-Owning Permanent 1.7-1.8Non-Auto-Owning Permanent 2.6Work Force Transients 1.25Transients Recreational Transients 1.5Students 25SchoolStf Staff13.6. Summary of Demand Estimation The total evacuation population and vehicles for different types and different scenarios are summarized in Table 14 and Table 15. There are more resident evacuees during thenight and weekend because people do not need to commute to work or school at thosetimes. Transient evacuees are at its peak level during the weekday because the majority isworkers.
There is also a significant amount of transient population during the weekendwhen the recreational population is at its peak level. It is assumed that there are fewtransient evacuees during the night. The shadow evacuees, who are assumed to be 20% ofresidents in the 10-15 mile ring, remain the same for the weeknight and weekendscenarios.
They are relatively less during the weekday because a portion of the residents commute to work or school. As the vehicle occupancy rates for residents (including shadow evacuees) and transient population are determined by telephone survey and varyby scenario, the evacuation can be different for different scenarios, even if the population remains the same.Table 14: Population Summary TableScenario Permanent residents Transients Schools Transit Dependent Shadow Population Weekday 1,746 2,433 70 29 1,492Weeknight 3,119 78 -29 2,665Weekend 3,119 340 29 2,665IEM 2012 Page 25IEM 2012Page 25 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 15: Vehicle Summary TabletScenario
:WeekdayWeeknight WeekendPermanent residents Transients 1,136 1,9471,699 631,796 239Schools Transit Dependent Shadow Population 22 1,465-- 2,2292,313Page 26 IEM 2012Page 26IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT4.0 EVACU.ATION ROADWAY NETWORKThe evacuation routes were modeled based on the information provided in the VEGP2012 Emergency Information Calendar.
Additional information regarding the evacuation routes was obtained from the past VEGP ETE report and the county REP. Maps anddescriptions in both documents were used by IEM as the basis of network verification activity.
IEM personnel also met with the VEGP emergency response planning staff andcounty emergency preparedness officials regarding additional information andclarifications.
The 2012 emergency information calendar included a detailed description of theevacuation routes for each zone within the 10-mile radius plume exposure pathway EPZ.It provided descriptive information on recommended protective actions and the namesand locations of reception centers for each PAZ. The map in the calendar clearly marksthe evacuation routes and the direction of evacuation towards the respective reception centers.
The reception centers are located well beyond the 10-mile EPZ.IEM personnel drove along the designated evacuation routes in the direction of anevacuation, as marked in the 2012 emergency information calendar to collect completeand accurate information about the physical state of the roads. Any differences betweeninformation indicated in the calendar, NAVTEQ data, and existing field conditions werenoted and were incorporated into the analyses, as necessary.
Figure 7 shows the entireevacuation network (including the routes for shadow evacuees) that is modeled.IEM 2012 Page 27IEM 2012Page 27 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTjRcC(j)tioii CenterFigure 7: VEGP Evacuation Network4.1. Network Definition IEM performed a complete review of the evacuation roadway network.
The evacuation network was developed using published evacuation routes and GIS road network datarepresenting roads available from NAVTEQ23 and the Georgia Department ofTransportation (GDOT).24 The high accuracy NAVTEQ street network GIS data,obtained for the PTV Vision simulation
: software, was used for field validation purposesand to build the digital evacuation network database.
The GDOT data was used tosupplement the NAVTEQ data where required.
To ensure the accuracy of this data, theentire evacuation
: network, including those roads outside the 10-mile EPZ leading to thereception
: centers, was verified by traveling each route in the network in the direction ofevacuation and collecting detailed information regarding the properties of each roadsection using a Global Positioning System (GPS)-enabled device. The GPS allowedlocating-with a high degree of precision-any sections that had changed inchannelization, curvature, speed limits, or other necessary network information.
23 PTV America, Inc. "NAVTEQ Data for PTV VISION."
Online:http://www.ptvamerica.com/navteq-tiles/index.html.
24 Georgia Department of Transportation.
Online http://www.dot.state.ga.us/.
GDOT road network data wasdownloaded from the Georgia GIS Clearinghouse website at https://gisl.state.ga.us/index.asp.
Page 28IEM 201L2 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTThe specific network attributes that were collected during the field trip included numberof lanes, speed, turns, traffic controls, pavement type and width, shoulder width, and anyother information required to model the traffic capacity of each link in the network.
Theinformation collected during the field visit is listed as follows." Land width (in feet, field observation)
" Shoulder width (in feet, field observation)
" Number of lanes (field observation)
" FFS (in mph, field observation)
" Speed limit (in mph, field observation)
" Intersection control method: actuated signal, fixed timing signal, stop sign controlled, yield sign controlled, uncontrolled (field observation)
" Intersection layout (taking pictures)
" Toll gates and lane channelization (taking picture)" Access control:
whether road has full access control (field observation)
" Median type: divided or undivided cross section (road has divided cross section with>=4 ft median or curbed barrier median, note that two way left turn lanes can beconsidered as >4 ft median for evacuation scenarios)
(field observation)
" Pavement type: whether the road is paved or not (field observation)
" Terrain type: level, rolling or mountainous area (field observation)
" Separation line: whether the two travel directions are separated by center lines (fieldobservation) 4.2. Evacuation Route Descriptions The evacuation network modeled for the ETE analyses covers Burke County in Georgia,and Aiken, Barnwell, and Allendale Counties in South Carolina.
The evacuation routeswere originally developed to permit a general radial travel pattern away from the planttoward the designated reception center. The evacuation route network is composed ofthree kinds of roads: highways, major arterial (roads connecting to highways),
and minorarterial or connector roads (residential roads connecting to major arterial roads).Examples of state highways are GA Hwy 23 and GA Hwy 80. Examples of majorarterials are Ben Hatcher Road and Thompson Bridge Road. Examples of connector roads are Claxton-Lively Road and Thomas Road. The connector roads, although not partof the evacuation routes as described in the 2012 emergency information
: calendar, actually load the evacuee population (in cars) onto the evacuation routes composed ofhighways, major, and minor arterial roads. The following items are descriptions of eachevacuation route as mentioned in the calendar (see also Figure 8).IEM 2012 Page 29IEM 2012Page 29 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTEvacuation Route 1* Ben Hatcher Road to Shell Bluff Spur to Georgia Hwy 80 to Georgia Hwy 56 toPerimeter Road to Burke County High School.Evacuation Route 2* Hancock Landing Road to Botsford Church Road to Seven Oaks Road to Cates MeadRoad to Hwy 56 to Perimeter Road to Burke County High School.Evacuation Route 3* Ebenezer Church Road to Hwy 23 to Thompson Bridge Road to Georgia Hwy 24 toPerimeter Road to Burke County High School.Evacuation Route 4" Brigham's Landing Road to Georgia Hwy 23 to Tom Bargeron Road to Georgia Hwy24 to Perimeter Road to Burke County High School." Royal Road to Stoney Bluff Road to Georgia Hwy 23 to Tom Bargeron Road toGeorgia Hwy 24 to Perimeter Road to Burke County High School.Evacuation Route 5 (Zone G-IQ, Cowden Plantation)
* West on County Road 5 to County Road 63 north to County Road 57 west to U.S.Hwy 278 north to South Carolina Hwy 302 north to South Aiken High School.Evacuation Route 6 (Zone H-10, Creek Plantation)
* South on South Carolina Hwy 125 to U.S. Hwy 278 to Allendale-Fairfax HighSchool.Each evacuation route leads to one of three designated reception centers.
Table 16 liststhe designated reception
: centers, their physical addresses, and associated evacuation routenumbers, as listed in the 2012 emergency information calendar.
Figure 8 illustrates thedesignated evacuation routes with numbers that lead to the designated reception areas.Table 16: Reception CentersReception Center Address Evacuation RoutesBurke County High School 1057 Perimeter Road 1, 2, 3, 4Waynesboro, GA 30830South Aiken High School 232 E Pine Log Road5Aiken, SC 29803Allendale-Fairfax High School 3581 Allendale-Fairfax Highway 6Fairfax, SC 29827Page 30 IEM 2012Page 30IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTFigure 8: Designated Evacuation Routes and Reception Centers4.3. Evacuation Network Characteristics The evacuation
: network, as modeled using the NAVTEQ street network data, contains377 links25 in the direction of evacuation and includes the connector roads. The totallength of the modeled network, again in the direction of evacuation and all the way to the25 A link is defined as a road section where its characteristics (e.g., speed limit and number of lanes) are constant.
Anintersection starts a new link or ends a link.IEM 20:12Page 31 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTreception
: centers, is about 671.4 miles. Detailed information regarding the roads thatmake up the evacuation network is provided in Appendix B.The state highways generally have a posted speed limit of 55 mph. The major and minorarterial or connector roads generally have a posted speed limit of 45 mph. On some of theroads, especially the highways, the posted speed limit decreases to 35 mph near city limitboundaries.
Unpaved roads or dirt roads have randomly posted speed limits, so a speedlimit of 20-25 mph was assumed for modeling purposes based on comfortable and safedriving speeds achieved by IEM personnel on these roads during field verification.
Mostof the links in the evacuation network (including highways) generally have one laneavailable in the direction of evacuation.
There are no interstates within the 10-mile plumeexposure pathway EPZ. Perimeter Road is the only road that has at least two lanesavailable in the direction of evacuation.
Other roads that have network links with twolanes are River Road, SC 302 (Pine Log Road inside Aiken City limits),
and SC 125(Augusta Highway in Allendale City limits).Traffic control along the evacuation routes is mostly managed using stop signs. Trafficlights were found at Perimeter Road, Pine Log Road, and Augusta Highway.
However,they are either replaced by manned control during the evacuation or located way beyondthe EPZ with little impacts on the ETE. Therefore, no fixed timing traffic signal ismodeled in the evacuation network.The number of intersections for different control types during the evacuation is listed inTable 17. There are 32 intersections that will be manned controlled and are modeled asactuated signal controlled, with varied cycle length.Table 17: Intersection Control TypeControl Type Number of Intersections Stop sign Control 64Signal Control 0Manned Control 32The key information for the ten highest volume intersections is listed in Table 18. Themajority of these intersections are manned controlled.
: However, there are three stop signcontrol intersections.
It is recommended to set up manned control for these busyintersections to facilitate the traffic flow and avoid potential extensive delay.Page 32IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 18: Information for Ten Highest Volume Intersections Turning LaneLocation Control Type Le Green Evacuation Direction Turn Capacity
(#LctoCotoTye Length Time* *Caciy(vehicle)*
Thompson Bridge Road at GA-24 Stop sign N/A N/A Right turn from Thompson Bridge Road 1to GA-24US-25/Perimeter Road at Burke Manned Vary 0-2 min Left and right turn from US-25 to Burke 13County High School County High SchoolGA-24 and US-25/Perimeter Road Manned Vary 0 -2 min Right turn from GA-24 to US-25 13GA-56 at US-25/Perimeter Road Manned Vary 0 -5 min Left turn from GA-56 to US-25 8Bates Road at GA-56 Stop sign N/A N/A Left turn from Bates Road to GA-56 0Cates Mead Road at GA-56 Manned Vary 0 -2 min Left turn from Cates Mead Road to GA-56 0Shell Bluff Spur at GA-80 Manned Vary 0 -2 min Left turn from Shell Bluff Spur at GA-80 0GA-80 at GA-56 Manned Vary 0 -5 mrin Left turn from GA-80 to GA-56 0Hatchers Mill Road at Thompson Manned Vary 0 -5 min Left turn from Hatchers Mill Road to 0Bridge Road Thompson Bridge RoadBates Road at Thompson Bridge Road Right turn from Bates Road to ThompsonControlled Bridge Road* Queue capacity for turning lane of the evacuation direction IEM 2012 Page 33IEM 2012Page 33 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTThis page intentionally left blank.Page 34 IEM 20+/-2Page 34IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTý5.0 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATE METHODOLOGY "ETEs were developed using VISUM 11, one of the core components of the PTV Visionsoftware suite. VISUM is used to estimate evacuation times for different scenarios (e.g.,day vs. night or normal vs. adverse weather) for user-defined spatial networks.
Information provided by PTV Vision includes evacuation or clearance times, operational characteristics (e.g., average evacuation speed, average distance traveled),
points ofcongestion, and other data necessary to evaluate evacuation plans.The evacuation network was defined based on the information provided in the 2012emergency information calendar.
IEM subject matter experts drove the designated routesto ensure complete and accurate information about the state of the roads and to evaluatethe appropriate selection of routes given the current conditions onsite.Evacuation demand (in term number of vehicles) loaded onto the network is based on thedata and methods described above in the Section 3.0. Loading times for the evacuation network are described below. Additional details about the methodology are included inthe following sections.
5.1. Loading of the Evacuation NetworkIn the event of an emergency, the public notification will mark the beginning of theevacuation times. So, public behavior (how long it takes the population to learn of theemergency and begin to evacuate) will impact the ETEs. The loading time distributions, also known as "trip generation times," described in this section are measured from thepublic notification, rather than from the occurrence of a hypothetical event.5.1.1. Trip Generation Events and Activities NUREG/CR-7002 requires planners estimate the amount of time for the public to beginevacuating.
These elapsed times are represented as statistical distributions to reflect thevariety of activities the public may undertake before evacuating.
In addition, separatedistributions are prepared for each population group, because, for example, a personevacuating from home will behave differently than someone who is at work, fishing, or ina nursing home, This is due to differences in their available alert systems and alsosystematic differences in their pre-evacuation preparations.
(i) Evacuation Events and Activities Series for Different Population GroupsThe trip generation process consists of a series of events and activities.
Each event occursat an instant in time and is the outcome of an activity.
Activities are undertaken over aperiod of time. As shown in Figure 9, Figure 10, and Figure 11, different population groups have different events and activity series for evacuation.
In these figures, circles represent events. Each event is coded by a number, whichrepresents the following:
IEM 2012Page 35 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT1. First notification of public2. Individual's awareness of incident3. Leave work/facilities
: 4. Arrive home5. Leave homeAn arrow indicates an activity.
The following describe the activities that take placebetween each event:0 1 -2: Receive notification 0 2 -3: Prepare to leave work/facilities 0 3 -4: Travel home0 2 -5: Prepare to leave homeTransient
: evacuees, including travelers,
: boaters, hunters, and employees living outsidethe EPZ, will follow Series A as shown in Figure 9. They will be notified of the event andwill leave their activities.
1 2 3Figure 9: Evacuation Events and Activity Series for Transients, Special Facilities (Series A)Households that do not have to wait for household members to return home will benotified of the emergency and leave home, following Series B, shown in Figure 10.1 2 5C 0Figure 10: Evacuation Events and Activity Series for Residences without Family MembersReturning Home (Series B)The results of a phone survey suggest around 48% of residences have regular commuters who would wait for household members to return home before evacuating.
This portionof the population will follow series C in Figure 11 to evacuate.
Note the activities of thepeople at home (denoted with a subscript H) can be undertaken in parallel with those ofthe commuter (denoted with a subscript C). Specifically, an adult member of a household can prepare to leave home while others are traveling home from work. In this instance, Page 36IEM 20:12 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTthe household members would be able to evacuate sooner than a household that preparesto leave home after all members have returned home.Commuters 1c 2c 3c 4cIN 2Kmm~mmm mmmmmm mm mU mmPeople at HomeFigure 11: Evacuation Events and Activity Series for Residences with Family MembersReturning Home (Series C)(ii) Calculation of Composite Distribution for Events and Activities Series in Evacuation As indicated by NUREG/CR-7002, activities may be in sequence (i.e., an activity will beundertaken upon completion of a preceding event) or may be in parallel (i.e., two or moreactivities may take place over the same period of time). Given the assumption the timedistribution of each activity is independent, the combined trip generation time requiredfor individual activities undertaken in sequence would be the sum of the times requiredfor each activity.
On the other hand, the combined trip generation time required forindividual activities undertaken in parallel would be the maximum of the times requiredfor each activity.
Table 19 shows the approach for estimating trip generation for different evacuation activity series.Table 19: Trip Generation Estimate for Different Evacuation Activity SeriesA {1-,2+2--3)
B (1,*2+2-,5)
C Max: ((Ic-+2 c+ 2 c--+*3 c+3 c -4 0, (IH-.2 H+2 H--+5))IEM 2012 Page 37IEM 2012Page 37 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT5.1.2. Trip Generation Time EstimateTrip generation consists of two phases of activities:
notification (i.e., activity 1 -ý 2) andmobilization, which includes the rest of the activities.
The notification process includestransmitting information and receiving and correctly interpreting the information that istransmitted.
IEM adopted the time distribution for notification presented in Evaluating Protective Actions for Chemical Agent Emergencies (EPACAE).2' This data wascollected during evacuations executed in response to large-scale chemical spills andexplicitly incorporates the time required for the communication of the warning.
The datacollected in this meta-study was based on transient, permanent, and special populations and is therefore appropriate to use as "general" notification curves for all three population types.The underlying assumption in applying the EPACAE notification curves to a nuclearETE study is the public perception of radiological emergencies is similar to that of achemical event. These curves were developed from the empirical data collected fromreal-life evacuations in response to actual events, and no similar study developed specifically for radiological events is readily available.
In the absence of such a study,empirical data from similar events was deemed to be more justifiable than estimating orhypothesizing about the public response to a nuclear event. IEM has successfully usedthis data for multiple ETE studies in the past, both for nuclear and chemical incidents oraccident scenarios.
Since the EPACAE notification distribution of times depends on the warning systememployed, IEM personnel incorporated the planned alert and notification systems (ANS)around the site, based on discussions with Southern Nuclear personnel.
These discussions revealed the basic ANS within the VEGP EPZ will include sirens, Emergency AlertSystems (EAS) and tone alert radios (TAR). The notification time distributions for thesewarning systems are shown in Figure 12. Any loss in capability of the ANS components would potentially increase the notification times and, as a result, ETEs.26 Rogers, G. 0., et al., Evaluating Protective Actions for Chemical Agent Emergencies (ORNL-6615),
Oak Ridge,TN: Oak Ridge National Laboratory, 1990.Page 38IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT100% -----. .....S90%U,o~80%70%0*1160%0.30% _____-EAS
+ TARsCLCL 20%1..EAS, Siren andCL 10% ------- TARs0%0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160Minutes from Warning StartFigure 12: Notification Times for Selected Alert and Notification Systems27Notification times for hunters,
: boaters, and park visitors were increased by 45 minutes toallow time for local emergency officials to patrol the forest, river, or park with loudspeakers to warn visitors.
Generally, the information required to estimate the second phase of trip generation, themobilization
: process, was obtained from a telephone survey of EPZ residents, supplemented by mobilization time estimated for similar sites. See Appendix C fordetails about the survey and its raw data.Mobilization times will vary from one individual to the next depending on where theyare, what they are doing, and related factors.
Furthermore, some persons, including commuters,
: shoppers, and other travelers, will return home to join the other members oftheir households for evacuation upon receiving notification of an emergency.
Therefore, the time elapsed for those people to travel home should be considered as part of themobilization time before evacuation can begin.27 Ibid.IEM 2012 Page 39IEM 2012Page 39 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTFigure 13 presents the distribution of trip generation times (i.e., the combination ofnotification and mobilization times) for different population groups. These curves wereobtained by applying the methodology described in Table 19 to the activities of eachpopulation group.IIII4'100%90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%0%). //,' IIt7!IiI----'ii'I $//--- Residents with Returning Members (Day)a .-.. Residents without Returning Members (Day)--Residents without Returning Members (Night)-,- Residents without Returning Members (Weekend)
--Workers-4 -HPN Workers-Recretional Population 0 Zo .VO0 4~-0 -b#0 7Minutes after WarningFigure 13: Distribution of Trip Generation Times by Population Group5.1.3. Trip Generation Time for Transit Dependent Permanent Residents As described in Section 3.3, the transit dependent permanent residents in the VEGP EPZare estimated at 29. Table 20 shows the assumptions for determining the trip generation time for evacuating the transit dependent population.
The trip generation time for thetransit dependent population was determined by consulting with relevant EMA personnel and the SNC planning staff.Page 40 IEM 2012Page 40IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 20: Trip Generation Time for Transit Dependent Permanent Residents Transit Dependent Cnu sTrip Generation CateoryCounty AssumptibinsTm Category.
Time.Wheelchair Burke Residents will evacuate by special equipped 20 minutesvehiclesTransportation Burke Residents will evacuate by school bus and 17 minutesstandard vansImmobile Burke Residents will evacuate by ambulance 20 minutes5.1.4. Trip Generation Time for SchoolsAs described in Section 3.4, there is one school within the VEGP EPZ. Table 21 showsthe assumptions for determining the trip generation time for the school population.
Thetrip generation time for the school was determined by consulting with relevant personnel at the school.Table 21: Trip Generation Time for Population in SchoolsFacility Category Facility Name Assumptions Trip Generation TimeSchool Students Lord's House of Praise Students will evacuate in 40 minutesChristian School 40 minutes.Lord's House of Praise Staff will not leave until Trip generation time forSchool Staff Christian School students have evacuated.
students (40 minutes) plus5 minutesIEM 20+/-2 Page 41IEM 2012Page 41 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT5.2. Evacuation Simulation Evacuations were simulated using the population and vehicle demand data, evacuation network data, and loading distribution data discussed in the previous sections.
VISUM 11was used to simulate evacuations.
Figure 14 describes the framework of the analysis andthree of its main features:
the demand model, the network model, and the impact model.Network ModelContains Supply Data:" Transport Systems" Subareas* Nodes" Links" Speed Umits* Capacities
" Listing and statistim calculated atbi" Indicator matrices:
evacuation time oFigure 14: ETEs Analysis Framework Using VISUM5.2.1. The Demand ModelThe demand model contains the travel demand data. The total number of vehiclesoriginating from a zone is calculated by dividing a population with its expected vehicleoccupancy rate. The total number of vehicles originating from a zone is then distributed to different time intervals based on the loading distribution curve for the zone. Theloading distribution curve for the zone depends on the warning system available for thatzone. The travel demand is described by an origin-destination (OD) matrix. The ODmatrix refers to a time interval and the total number of vehicles departing in that timeinterval.
5.2.2. The Network ModelThe network model describes the relevant supply data of an evacuation network.
Thesupply data consists of subareas, nodes, links, speed limits, and capacities.
The subareasdescribe areas with particular boundaries based on demography, topography, landPage 42IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTcharacteristics, access routes, and local jurisdictions.
They represent the origin anddestination of trips within the evacuation network.
Nodes define positions of intersections in the evacuation network.
Links connect nodes and, therefore, describe the roadinfrastructure.
Every network object is described by its attributes (e.g., speed limits andcapacities for the links). The travel time of a vehicle on a given link depends on thepermitted speed and the capacity (i.e., the traffic volume a road can handle before theformation of a traffic jam) of the link. The roadway capacities used in the evacuation analysis were calculated using the field collected road attributes and capacity calculation methodology from the U.S. Federal Highway Administration.
28 Details of the roadwaycapacity calculation method are presented as follows.(i) Roadway Capacity Calculation MethodIEM estimate roadway capacity based on road type and free flow speed. Using thecharacteristics data field (e.g., access control, median type, number of lanes in onedirection, pavement type), roadway is categorized into five types: 1) full accesscontrolled road; 2) rural multilane highway;
: 3) urban multilane highway;
: 4) single laneroad; 5) unpaved road. The classification method is shown in the flow chart in Figure 15.28 U.S. Federal Highway Administration.
"Highway Performance Monitoring System Field Manual, Appendix N -Procedures for Estimating Highway Capacity."
Online: http://www.thwa.dot.gov/ohim/hpmsmanl/appn.htm.
IEM 2012Page 43 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTFigure 15: Roadway Type Classification MethodPage 44IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTOnce the roadway type is determined, the capacity (in vehicle per lane per hour) can becalculated for each road segment using the following method.0 Full access controlled road: Capacity
= 1700 + FFS
* 10 with maximum of 24000 Rural multilane highway:
Capacity
= 1000 + FFS
* 20with maximum of 2200" Urban multilane highway:
Capacity
= 1900" Single lane road: Capacity
= 1700 *fG -VNp" Unpaved road: Capacity
= 800 *fG -VNpThe unit for capacity of the above formula is pcplph (passenger car per lane per hour).One need is to multiply this value by the number of lanes to obtain capacity for all lanesin the unit of pcph (passenger cars per hour). No heavy vehicle factor adjustment shouldbe made to the adjustment because VISUM needs capacity as an input in passenger carunits and heavy vehicles are modeled as different vehicle groups than the passenger cars.Peak hour factor (PHF) should not be considered for adjusting capacity in modeling, asmodeling time step is typically far less than 15 min (e.g., 5 min).FFS (definition:
The desired speed of drivers in low volume conditions and in the absenceof traffic control devices or other adverse conditions.)
is the key to estimate capacity andis a required input for modeling.
It can be directly estimated in the field and is typically 5-10 mph higher than the speed limit.fG and VNp are adjustment factors for grades and adjustment value for no passing zones.fG can be found from Table 22- .If no other information is available, one may assume the.two-way flow rate is in the range 0-600 pcph.Table 22: Grade Adjustment Factors (fG)0-600 1.00 0.71 0.57>600-1,200 1.00 0.93 0.85>1,200 1.00 0.99 0.9929 FHWA, Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) Field Manual, Appendix N: Procedures forEstimating Highway Capacity, Rural Tow-lane
: Capacity, Table 6,http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/hpmsmanl/appn3.cfm IEM 2012Page 45 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTVNp can be calculated as VNp =fNP / 0.00776, wherefNp is the adjustment factor for no-passing zones on average travel speed and can be found in Table 2330. If no otherinformation is available, one may assume the two-way flow rate is in the range 101-300pcph, with a no passing zone percentage of 50% for separated roads and 90% for non-separated roads.Table 23: Adjustment (fnp) for Effect of No-Passing Zones on AverageTravel Speed on Two-Way SegmentsReduction in Average Travel Speed (mph)Two-Way Demand Flow Rate, No-Passing Zones (%)vp(pcph)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1000-100 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0101-300 0.0 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.9 2.4 2.5 2.6 3.1 3.5301-500 0.0 0.9 1.7 2.2 2.7 3.1 3.5 3.7 3.9 4.2 4.5501-700 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.9701-900 0.0 0.7 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0901-1,100 0.0 0.6 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.4 2.61,101-1,300 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.11,301-1,500 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.71,501-1,700 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.51,701-1,900 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.31,901-2,100 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.12,101-2,300 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.12,301-2,500 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.130 FHWA, Highway Performance Monitoring System (HPMS) Field Manual, Appendix N: Procedures forEstimating Highway Capacity, Rural Tow-lane
: Capacity, Table 8,http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/hpmsmanl/appn3.cfm Page 46 IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTReduction In Average Travel Speed (mph)Two-Way Demand Flow Rate, No-Passing Zones (%)vp(pcph)0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 1002,501-2,700 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.02,701-2,900 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.92,901-3,100 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.83,101-3,300 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7>3,300 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5(ii) Roadway Capacity Calculation ExampleLink #5 (node 0259 to node 8908, shown in Figure 20 and Table 34) as a segment ofHephzibah McBean Road is a rural single lane road located in a level area withapproximate 50% no-passing zones and the two-way traffic is estimated in a range of101-300.
Therefore, its capacity is estimated as 1700
* 1.0 -1.9/0.00776
= 1455 pcph.Another example is link #126 (node 5435 to 4517, shown in Figure 20 and Table 34) as asegment of U.S. Hwy 278 is a rural multi-lane highway with two lanes in each direction and free flow speed of 55 mph. Therefore, its capacity is estimated as 2
* max (2200,1000 + 55
* 20) = 4200 pcph.5.2.3. The Impact ModelThe impact model takes its input data from the demand model and the network model.PTV Vision provides different impact models to analyze and evaluate the evacuation network.
A user model simulates the behavior of travelers.
It calculates traffic volumesand service indicators, such as travel time. The VISUM traffic assignment procedure chosen for this analysis simulates the movement of vehicles on the network as timepasses in the evacuation and outputs volumes for each link at each time after analyzing the queuing behavior.
This time-dynamic functionality allows for loading of the networkvia distributions, as when using a range of mobilization times.The ETEs are measured by noting the time and counting the number of vehicles passesthe boundary of the EPZ. VISUM displays the calculated results in graphic and tabularforms and allows graphical analysis of results.
In this way, for example, routes per ODpair, traffic flow, and isochrones can be displayed and analyzed.
Using the outputs fromVISUM, IEM modeler was able to ensure that the traffic simulation model is inequilibrium, by checking whether the number of vehicles entering the roadway networkis equal to the number of vehicles exiting the network.IEM 2012Page 47 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTThis page intentionally left blank.Page 48 IEM 2012Page 48IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT6.0 ANALYSIS OF EVACUATION, TIMES.Evacuation times were estimated in order to give emergency planners in the area anapproximate time required for evacuation of various parts of the footprint.
The estimates were derived by using population (demand) data to determine the number of vehicles andthen modeling the travel of the vehicles along the evacuation routes from their origin totheir assigned reception center. Both 100% and 90% ETE were studied.
The 100% ETEis the time between public notification and when the last evacuating vehicle exits theEPZ. On the other hand, 90% ETE is the time between public notification and when 90%of the evacuating vehicles exit the EPZ.The ETEs are composed of two components.
The first is loading (or "trip generation")
time, which is the time required for residents within the area to prepare and then begintheir evacuation.
Loading times depend, in part, on how long it takes evacuees to receivethe warning and is, thus, dependent on the warning systems in their area. The tripgeneration times estimated for the VEGP EPZ are described in detail in Section 5.1. Thesecond component of an ETE is travel time, which is the time between the resident's departure and when they cross the EPZ boundary.
The travel time is determined via theevacuation model.As a part of the analysis, zones in the study area were grouped to represent the different areas that might need to be evacuated during an incident, so that the decision makerscould more effectively order evacuations based on the scenarios and potential winddirection.
These areas are discussed in more detail in Section 1.2.Each zone had been assigned a set of evacuation routes by State and local EMA planners, and these route restrictions were reflected in the modeling of the scenarios.
Theseguidelines generally route evacuees based on the county these are located at the time ofthe incident.
The evacuation routes are described in more detail in Section 4.2.6.1. Summary of ETE Results for General PublicThe evacuation time estimate results are displayed in Table 24 and Table 25. Evacuation times listed include warning diffusion, public mobilization, and travel time out of theEPZ. It is important to note that the evacuation time is the time from the moment atwhich public notification begins-not the start time of a hypothetical event.IEM 2012Page 49 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 24: 2012 100% ETEs in MinutesNormal Weather Adverse WeatherAffectedERPAs Area Midweek MMidweek idweek Midweek WeekendWe Wekndeidee WeekendAfeceaEPytreidwee Weekend iDaytime Daytime Wekn DatmDatime Evening Evening DaytmeA 2-mile ring _ 150 145 145 150 150 145A, B-5, C-5, D-5, E-5, F-5 5-mile ring 1_80 185 190 180 185 190All Evacuation Zones 1O-mile EPZ 200 205 205 200 205 205Evacuate 2 to 5 miles downwindB-5 N 130 135 165 135 140 170B-5,C-5 NNE 135 140 165 140 145 175C-5 NE 90 115 100 90 115 100D-5 ENE 125 135 125 130 135 125D-5,E-5 E 140 145 140 140 145 140E-5,F-5 ESE 150 165 165 150 170 170F-5 SE 140 145 140 140 150 140F-5 SSE 140 145 140 140 150 140F-5 S 140 145 140 140 150 140-SSW N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ASW N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWSW N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AW N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AB-5 WNW 130 135 165 135 140 170B-5 NW 130 135 165 135 140 170B-5 NNW 130 135 165 135 140 170Evacuate 2-mile zone and 5 miles downwindA,B-5 N .55 155 170 155 155 175A,8-5,C-5 NNE 155 155 170 160 160 175A,C-5 NE 150 150 145 155 150 150A,D-5 ENE 155 150 150 155 155 150A,D-5,E-5 E 160 165 160 160 165 165A,E-5,F-5 ESE 165 175 175 170 175 175A,F-5 SE 160 165 165 160 165 165A,F-5 SSE 160 165 165 160 165 165A,F-5 S 160 165 165 160 165 165Page 50 IEM 2012Page 50IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTNormal Weather Adverse WeatherAffecWedERPAs Area Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek WeekendDaytime Weekend Daytime Daytime WeekendD Evening Evening DaytmeA SSW 150 145 145 150 150 145A SW 150 145 145 150 150 145A WSW 150 145 145 150 150 145A W 150 145 145 150 150 145A,B-5 WNW 155 155 170 155 155 175A,B-5 NW 155 155 170 155 155 175A,B-5 NNW 155 155 170 155 155 175Table 25: 2012 90% ETEs in MinutesNormal: Weather Adverse WeatherAffected ERPAs Area Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek WeekendDaytime Weekend Daytime Daytime Weekend DaytimeEvening EveningA 2-mile ring 80 80 80 80 85 80A, B-5, C-5, D-5, E-5, F-5 5-mile ring 90 100 100 90 105 105All Evacuation Zones 10-mile EPZ 100 110 115 100 115 115Evacuate 2 to 5 miles downwindB-5 N 125 130 140 125 140 145B-5,C-5 NNE 125 130 140 125 140 145C-5 NE 110 115 100 110 115 100D-5 ENE 115 125 110 115 130 115D-5,E-5 E 115 125 110 115 130 115E-5,F-5 ESE 110 120 110 110 120 115F-5 SE 110 120 110 115 120 110F-5 SSE 110 120 110 115 120 110F-5 S 110 120 110 115 120 110SSW N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/ASW N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AWSW N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AW N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/AB-5 WNW 125 130 140 125 140 145B-5 NW 125 130 140 125 140 145IEM 2012Page 51 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTNormal Weather Adverse Weatherieekenddweek Affected.
ERPAs Area Midweek Midweek Weekend Midweek Midweek WeekendDaytime Weekend Daytime Daytime Weekend DaytimeEvening EveningB-5 NNW 125 130 140 125 140 145Evacuate 2-mile zone and 5 miles downwindA,B-5 N 80 90 95 85 90 100A,B-5,C-5 NNE 85 90 95 85 90 100A,C-5 NE 80 85 80 80 85 85A,D-5 ENE 80 85 85 85 90 85A,D-5,E-5 E 85 90 85 85 95 90A,E-5,F-5 ESE 85 95 90 85 95 90A,F-5 SE 80 95 85 85 95 90A,F-5 SSE 80 95 85 85 95 90A,F-5 S 80 95 85 85 95 90A SSW 80 80 80 80 85 80A SW 80 80 80 80 85 80A WSW 80 80 80 80 85 80A W 80 80 80 80 85 80A,B-5 WNW 80 90 95 85 90 100A,B-5 NW 80 90 95 85 90 100A,B-5 NNW 80 90 95 85 90 1006.2. Discussion of Scenario Results6.2.1. General Trends" The ETEs in both normal and adverse weather are mainly driven more by the warningsystem and available speeds rather than the roadway capacities because vehicular demand is low compared to available roadway capacities in most parts of thenetwork." The ETEs for scenarios in adverse weather increased in a range of 0 to 10 minutesfrom the corresponding scenarios in normal weather.
The adverse weather conditions have little impacts on ETEs, increasing with no more than 5 minutes increase for themajority of the scenarios.
The increase is due more to reduced available speeds thanto reduced roadway capacities.
" For most area, the weekend scenario produced the highest evacuation times. This isdue to the increased amount of recreational transients in the area (hunters and boaters)on the weekend.
This population has a higher warning and diffusion time than otherPage 52IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTpopulations
-up to 2 hours 35 minutes, compared to 2 hours 5 minutes for permanent residents.
The only exception is for zone A, where the majority of the workers atVEGP consist of the evacuation population and few recreational populations.
6.2.2. Evacuation Area: 0-2 MilesThe majority of the population in the Zone A evacuation area consists of employees ofVEGP and SNC contractors (e.g., Shaw). In addition, Zone A includes a small number ofpermanent residents and non-plant employees.
For the weekday scenario, the plantworkforce was modeled to reflect 2,682 workers who would evacuate during an event,excluding another 200 emergency personnel, who will not evacuate.
For the weeknight and weekend scenarios, the workforce for the plant was modeled such that 78-90contractor employees will evacuate all VEGP employees were emergency personnel andwould remain during an event. Evacuees in the 2-mile radius will mainly use ThompsonBridge Road to leave the EPZ and evacuate to the Burke County reception Center.The longest evacuation times for the 2-mile radius occurred in the weekday scenario, because there is little recreational population.
The evacuation times are relatively low andwere affected by the loading times and available speed limits, not by significant congestion in the network.
: However, due to the large number of workforce at the VEGP,potential congestion could occur along the VEGP evacuation route. For example,Ebenezer Church Road and Thompson Bridge Road each exhibited volumes exceeding their capacities.
6.2.3. Evacuation Area: 0-5 MilesThis area includes the entire 5-mile EPZ, consisting of zones A, B-5, C-5, D-5, E-5 andF-5. There are several evacuation routes leading out of the EPZ; however, a portion of theevacuating population will converge on SR-23 and SR-80 and evacuate to Burke Countyreception Center. Evacuation times for the entire 5-mile EPZ are similar to maximumevacuation times for all subzones for each scenario, and are noticeably longer thanevacuation times for the 2-mile radius scenarios.
Though the traffic converges for theevacuation of the entire 5-mile boundary, the road network capacity is generally sufficient in both normal and adverse weather.
: However, moderate congestion alongEbenezer Church Road and Thompson Bridge Road was observed, similar to the 0-2miles scenarios.
6.2.4. Evacuation Area: 0-10 MilesThe evacuation times of the entire 10-mile EPZ was noticeably longer than those of 0-5mile area, due to the additional evacuees from 5-10 mile area. Zones A, B-5, C-5, D-5, E-5, F-5, B-10, C-10, D-10, E-10 and F-10 will evacuate to the Burke County Reception Center and will primarily use SR-80 and SR-24 to leave the EPZ. Zones G-10 willevacuate to the Aiken County Reception Center and will use local road to leave the EPZ.Zones H-10 will evacuate to the Allendale County Reception Center and will primarily use SR-125 to leave the EPZ.Population for this area includes permanent residents, transients working in the EPZ, theLord's House of Praise Christian School, and recreational visitors including boaters onIEM 2012Page 53 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTthe Savannah River and hunters in the wooded areas. The population for the Lord'sHouse of Praise Christian School was only considered for the weekday scenario.
Therecreational activities were considered at peak levels for the weekend scenario.
These evacuation times are mainly influenced by three factors:
: 1) the higher warning anddiffusion times for hunters in the area; 2) moderate congestions on the roads andintersections along Ebenezer Church Road and Thompson Bridge Road; 3) largerevacuation population resulting in larger chance of having a few evacuees who needextensive long loading time.6.3. ETE Results for Transit Dependent Permanent Residents The ETEs for the transit dependent population are shown in Table 26. Note that the ETEsfor the transit dependent population counts from the notification time of vehiclesdispatched for this population group (assuming one hour earlier than the general public).Table 26: Transit Dependent Permanent Resident Evacuation TimesTransit Dependent Vehicle Category ETESpecial Equipped Vehicle 50 minSchool Bus/Standard Van 55 minAmbulance 50 min6.4. ETE Results for School Population The ETEs, average travel speed, and travel time for school population when evacuating full EPZ on the weekday under normal weather conditions are shown in Table 27. Thebus queue occurs due to two buses loading students simultaneously at the school. Lord'sHouse of Praise Christian School is located just inside the EPZ boundary of the EPZ andit only takes an average of 6 min for the evacuees to travel 1.4 miles to the boundary.
Table 27: School Evacuation TimesShoa Outbound Triavel Time~te..
:Bus QueueTravel Speed EPZ Boundary LengthLord's House of Praise Christian 14 mph 6 mi 100 ft 55miSchool6.5. Example Model OutputSome example model outputs are presented as follows for the weekday, full EPZ, normalweather evacuation scenario.
The total volumes and hourly percents at each exit road arelisted in Table 28. Due to the high concentration of evacuation population from VGEP,the highest evacuation exit traffic is observed at a segment of Thompson Bridge Roadcrossing the southern EPZ boundary.
The network wide average travel time from thePage 54IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTorigins to the reception centers is 33 minutes.
The total number of vehicle exit the EPZ is3,127 and is the same as the total number of vehicles (excluding shadow evacuees) loaded into the network.
The mobilization curve and evacuation curve identifying thecumulative percentage of evacuees who have mobilized and exited the EPZ are plotted inFigure 16. The average speeds for the five designated evacuation routes are shown inTable 29.IEM 2012Page 55 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 28: Total Volumes and Hourly Percents at Exit RoadsThompson Bridge Road 101939.3% 2.8% 0.1%River Road 17 88.2% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0%GA Hwy 23 3 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Tom Bargeron Road 401 63.1% 31.9% 5.7% 0.0%Bates Road 2 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Cates-Mead Road/Cates HeadRoad 687 71.7% 26.1% 1.5% 0.0%GA Hwy 80 934 64.1% 30.3% 5.6% 0.1%SC Hwy 125 2 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%Jackson Street 2 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%100% 1w0C90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10%/7/7/Exited-Mobilized 0%0 20 40 o 80 100 120 140 160 180 200Minutes After Public WarningFigure 16: Mobilization and Evacuation CurvePage 56 IEM 2012Page 56IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 29: Average Speed for Different Evacuation RoutesEvacuation Route Average Speed (mph),1 452 413 354 35.5 376 48IEM 2012 Page 57IEM 201.2Page 57 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTý7.0. SUPPLEMENTAL ANALYSISThe analyses related to confirmation of evacuation and potential mitigating measures toeffectively manage the traffic flow were performed and are provided in the following sections.
7.1. Confirmation of Evacuation The confirmation of evacuation process determines if the evacuation has been completed.
The time required for confirmation of evacuation is dependent upon the methodemployed.
The most time-consuming method typically employed is to use groundvehicles.
The time required involves the driving time for each route selected.
Given thelack of congestion evident around VEGP in 2006, the evacuation confirmation process inthis case would not need to wait for the bulk of the evacuation to complete.
This indicates that the confirmation could be completed concurrently with the evacuation.
Substantial congestion was, however, observed in 2012 scenarios, so confirmation in this case isrecommended to be conducted after the evacuation had completed.
Informing people to leave some standard signs on their doors or windows, such as tying awhite cloth to the front doorknob of the house or to the mailbox (as mentioned in theemergency information calendar),
when they leave their houses would help theauthorities in the confirmation of evacuation.
Presence of TCPs and Access ControlPoints (ACPs) at strategic locations within the evacuation network could provide real-time feedback regarding the progress of the evacuation process.
All evacuees arerecommended to register in at the designated county reception centers as they arrive. Thisprocedure helps the authorities to account for the population within the designated county. This can be accounted as one of the means of confirmation of evacuation, onlyunder the assumption that all the evacuees would actually report to the reception centersand nowhere else. Telephoning people at their homes could also be considered as apossible means of ensuring completion of evacuation.
As noted in the county REP3', evacuation confirmation will be accomplished by thecounty Sheriffs Department and supporting law enforcement agency personnel that willtraverse roadways throughout the affected area to ensure that the residential population has evacuated their homes. Personnel from the Georgia Department of Natural Resources Law Enforcement Section and the county Emergency Management Agency will movealong the Savannah River and tributaries in boats to ensure that hunters and fishermen within the 10-mile EPZ are evacuated from the area. Additional assistance is available from other State agencies (i.e., Georgia Forestry Commission and Department ofTransportation).
3 Annex D -Plant Vogtle -Burke County Emergency Management Radiological Plan. May 2009. (Obtained fromState of Georgia REP).Page 58IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTThe actual time associated with the confirmation process would depend on both thenumber of personnel and the amount of equipment available.
These resources maychange significantly under various emergency conditions.
7.2. Evacuation Traffic Management Locations and OtherPotential Mitigating MeasuresIn order to efficiently promote smooth movement of traffic flow during an evacuation, several TCPs have been identified by the plant and county emergency response planningpersonnel.
The TCPs are listed in Table 30 and Table 31, and shown graphically inFigure 17. The responsibility of supervising traffic controls during an evacuation will beshared between the State's and counties' emergency management and law enforcement agency personnel, as available.
Each TCP will be manned and/or road blocks will beestablished to direct evacuees out of the EPZ and to deny access into the affected area.Also, route markers will be placed along the evacuation routes at critical intersections androad block locations to promote more efficient traffic flow out from the EPZ.Table 30: Georgia Traffic Control Points for the VEGP EPZLocation ID Description I Georgia Hwy 56 SP (River Road) at McBean Club Road2 Georgia Hwy 23 at Spring Branch Church Road3 Georgia Hwy 80 at Georgia Hwy 234 Georgia Hwy 23 at Hancock Landing Road5 Botsford Church Road at Seven Oaks Road6 Sam Mead Road at Seven Oaks Road7 Georgia Hwy 80 at Shell Bluff Spur8 Georgia Hwy 56 at Georgia Hwy 809 Georgia Hwy 56 at Cates Mead Road10 Georgia Hwy 56 at Perimeter Road11 Entrance to Reception Center, Perimeter Road12 Georgia Hwy 24 at Perimeter Road13 Thompson Bridge Road at Hatchers Mill Road14 Georgia Hwy 24 at Tom Bargeron Road15 Georgia Hwy 23 at Johnson Road16 Ellison Bridge Road at Johnson Road17 Ellison Bridge Road at Murray Hill Road18 Millhaven Road, I mile south of Givens Church Road19 Millhaven Road, Stony Bluff Road, Georgia Hwy 23 Intersection in Girard20 Stony Bluff Road at Intersection at Oak Grove ChurchIEM 20:12Page 59 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLocation ID 'Description:
21 Royal Road at River Road22 VEGP Main Access Road at River Road23 River Road at Hancock Landing Road24 Jack Delaigle Road at Ebenezer Church RoadTable 31: South Carolina Traffic Control Points for the VEGP EPZCounty Location Description IDI Route 437 (Browns Road) at Route 5 (direct traffic north onRoute 5: restrict vehicles from traveling south on Route 437)2 Route 5 at Route 299 (direct traffic north on Route 5)Aiken 3 Route 5 at Route 63 (direct traffic west on Route 63)4 Route 63 at Route 125 (allow traffic to flow on Route 63)5 Route 63 at Route 57 (direct traffic north on Route 57)Barnwell 6 Route 125 at Route 493 (direct traffic south on Route 125)7 Route 125 at Route 12 (direct traffic south on Route 125)Allendale 8 Route 125 at Route 17 (direct traffic south on Route 125)Page 60 IEM 2012Page 60IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTFigure 17: Traffic Control Points in and around VEGP EPZIEM 2012 Page 61IEM 2012Page 61 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT18.0O SENS.ITIV1TY STUDY OW.POPULATI0ON::C:HANGE" ETEs vary with factors such as population, roadway networks and vehicle occupancy rates. In response to new federal regulations, IEM conducted a population sensitivity analysis for VEGP to address the uncertainty in population data by estimating theanticipated impact of a population change on ETEs. This sensitivity analysis will providea basis for decisions on future ETE update thresholds.
IEM increased the residential population (for both EPZ and shadow evacuees) todetermine the population value that will cause ETE values to increase by 25 percent or 30minutes, whichever is less for the scenario with the longest ETE. This scenario isevacuating the entire EPZ during the weekend under adverse weather conditions.
Thebase ETE for this scenario is 205 minutes, and hence the threshold for triggering an ETEupdate is 30 minutes increase in ETE. IEM found that an increase of 30 minutes occurswith a permanent resident population increase of 278% or 8,671 people within the EPZ(along with the increase of shadow evacuees with the same percentage).
Page 62 IEM 2012Page 62IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTThis page intentionally left blank.IEM 2012 Page 63IEM 2012Page 63 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT9.0 CoNCLUSN AND R E C OM ME NDAT ION:SThe ETEs developed for 17 evacuation areas within the 10-mile VEGP EPZ measuredthe time from the public notification to when the last evacuating vehicle exited the EPZboundary.
The 100% ETEs for the evacuation areas ranged from 90 minutes to 205 minutes for thenormal scenarios, and from 90 minutes to 205 minutes for those occurring in adverseweather, also. The 90% ETEs for the evacuation areas ranged from 80 minutes to 140minutes for the normal scenarios, and from 80 minutes to 145 minutes for those occurring in adverse weather.
Variations in ETEs between scenarios generally correlated todifferences in the number of evacuating
: vehicles, the capacity of the evacuation routes,the roadway conditions, or the distance from the origin zones to the EPZ boundary.
Except for 0-2 mi area (where the workforce at VEGP consists the majority population and there are few recreational population),
the weekend scenario produced the highestevacuation times due to the longer mobilization time for the higher number ofrecreational transients in the area (hunters and boaters) on the weekend.The analysis shows that the capacity of the roadway network within the EPZ is adequateto accommodate the population for most scenarios.
: However, there are a few areas thatcould become congested during an evacuation.
Examples of such route include theEbenezer Church Road and Thompson Bridge Road, which are used by a large number ofevacuees from VGEP.In conclusion, based on the data gathered and the results of the evacuation studyconducted, IEM believes that the existing evacuation strategy is functional for the year2012 conditions, given the lack of severe congestion or very high ETEs.9.1. Summary of Recommendations The following recommendations will help emergency managers to improve theevacuation times from an event at VEGP:" Continue working through existing public outreach efforts to educate residents ofhow best to evacuate the EPZ and to clearly identify the location of the reception centers." Use traffic control points (TCP) to facilitate flow in the areas (e.g., intersection ofThompson Bridge Rd and GA-24) where vehicles might otherwise have to slow dueto congestion and traffic signals." Developing comprehensive regional evacuation plans and/or working with local andstate Departments of Transportation to suggest improvements to the roadinfrastructure can contribute to a more successful evacuation.
Page 64 IEM 2012Page 64IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTThis page intentionally left blank.IEM 2012 Page 65IEM 20:12Page 65 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTAPPENDIX A: GEOGRAPHICAL BOUNDARI ES OF EVACUATION ZONES.Table 32: Geographical Boundaries of VEGP EPZ Evacuation Zones'Evacuation Geographical Boundaries ZonesA Northeast-Savannah RiverSoutheast, South/Southwest and West Northwest-2-mile areaB-5 North-2-mile areaWest-Ebenezer Church RoadSouthwest-GA Hwy 23South-Chance RoadSoutheast-Griffin's Landing RoadNortheast-Savannah RiverB-10 Northwest-Griffin's Landing RoadWest-Dixon Road and City of Girard eastern boundarySouthwest-Stony Bluff RoadSoutheast-Royal Road and then 10-mile areaNortheast-Savannah RiverC-5 Northwest-Jack Delaigle RoadSouthwest-GA Hwy 23East-Ebenezer Church RoadC-10 North-Chance Road and GA Hwy 23West-Brier Creek Road, Buck Road, and GA Hwy 23South-Johnson Road, Ellison Bridge Road, Murray Hill Road, and the 10-mile areaSoutheast-Stony Bluff RoadEast-City of Girard eastern boundary and Dixon RoadD-5 North-Hancock Landing RoadWest-Hancock Landing Road and Thomas RoadSouthwest-Hatchers Mill Road and Thompson Bridge RoadSouth-Gordon Road and Tom Bargeron RoadEast-GA Hwy 23, Brier Creek Road, and Buck RoadE-5 North-Ben Hatcher RoadIEM 2012 Page A-iIEM 2012Page A-1.
EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTEvacuation Geographical Boundaries ZonesEast-River RoadSouth-Hancock Landing RoadWest-Nathaniel Howard RoadE-1O Northeast-Nathaniel Howard RoadNorth-GA Hwy 80, GA Hwy 23, and Ben Hatcher RoadWest--l-mile area and Bates RoadSouth-Thompson Bridge, Seven Oaks Road, and Botsford Church RoadEast-Hancock Landing RoadF-5 North-Savannah RiverEast-Savannah RiverWest-5-mile radius and River RoadSouth-2-mile areaF-1O Northeast-Savannah RiverWest-lO-mile radius and GA Hwy 23South-Ben Hatcher RoadEast-River Road and the 5-mile areaG-1O North-Gray's Landing on the Savannah River to the CSX track and CowdenPlantation RoadEast-SRS boundary and the CSX lineSouth-Savanna River and the SRS boundaryWest-Savannah RiverNortheast-CSX trackH-IO North-the SRS boundary and S125 extending into Allendale County's northernboundaryEast-Creek Plantation RoadSouth-Savannah RiverWest-SRS boundaryPage A-2 IEM 2012Page A-2IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTThe detailed map for the evacuation network with legible values for nodes and links areprovided in Figure 18 through Figure 21. In addition, detailed information for eachroadway link is listed in Table 34.lend'ill
'-F airtaxi!qh Sc loolFigure I8: Detailed Roadway Nodes and Links -Southeast QuadrantIEM 2012 Page B-iIEM 2012Page B-1 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTFigure 19: Detailed Roadway Nodes and Links -Southwest QuadrantPage B-2 IEM 2012Page B-2IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTFigure 20: Detailed Roadway Nodes and Links -Northwest QuadrantIEM 2012 Page 8-3IEM 2012Page B-3 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTISmith Aiken Hi( h =SchoolFigure 21: Detailed Roadway Nodes and Links -Northeast QuadrantPage B-4 IEM 20i2Page B3-4IEM 201L2 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTTable 33: Glossary of Terms for Roadway Links InputsAttribute Definition Link # The unique identifier for each roadway segment between two nodes.U-Node Upstream node number for associated link.D-Node Downstream node number for associated link.Length Length of the roadway segment.Lane Width Width of lane for the link.Number of Lanes Number of lanes in the direction of travel.Roadway Type As defined in the ETE study such as Interstate, major arterial, minor arterial, etc.The equivalent hourly rate at which vehicles can traverse an intersection Saturation Flow Rate approach under prevailing conditions, assuming that the green signal isavailable at all times and no lost times are experienced in vehicles per hour ofgreen per lane.FFS Free flow speed over the link.Table 34: Roadway Network Characteristics Lane Number Saturation Link # U-Node D-Node Length Width of Lanes Roadway Type Flow Rate FFS1 0058 3043 0.908 10 I Unpaved 800 302 0157 0161 0.124 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 453 0168 2126 2.755 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 504 0234 7399 1.470 11 1 Unpaved 800 355 0259 8908 2.143 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 406 0381 4096 6.418 11 1 Unpaved 800 357 0484 1087 1.431 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 358 0484 3037 3.576 10 1 Unpaved 800 309 0484 3191 2.070 10 1 Unpaved 800 3010 0525 2011 0.035 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 4011 0525 2012 0.033 11 1 Unpaved 800 3512 0707 0715 4.694 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 4013 0707 9506 0.125 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 5014 0715 0722 1.926 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 4015 0715 0759 1.389 11 1 Unpaved 800 3516 0715 9833 1.297 11 1 Unpaved 800 35IEM 2012Page B-5 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLink # U Node DANode Length1718192021222324252627282930313233343536373839404142434445464748490722 0759 2.0290722 9620 5.1910932 0872 9.0280932 4088 1.3760932 4390 4.8970933 0872 0.1890933 1092 4.5360933 4323 2.4291087 3030 1.2921087 3043 1.2261092 4690 1.7141092 4820 3.3791352 1417 0.8461352 3018 0.5141417 1680 1.5151417 1952 1.7731479 2095 3.1341479 3037 0.8921680 1952 0.9931949 8775 0.8572011 2012 0.0432149 7396 0.5262149 7673 0.5552149 8690 0.9662149 9616 0.3592167 2432 1.6142167 4311 0.4752253 2894 1.3102339 2356 0.1332354 3681 3.2222354 4800 2.5792354 5563 2.2102354 7883 1.234111212121111101212111211101110111111121112111011111112121112UnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpaved8001455145514551292129280014551455129214551292Lane Number Saturation Width of Lanes Flow Rate12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 4511 1 Unpaved 800 3512 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40354040554035304055455545UnpavedUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadUnpaved80080080012921292800145580014558008001292129212921455145512921455303530454535503550353045453555554555UnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadPage B-6 IEM 2012Page B-6IEM 20:12 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLane NumberSaturation FFLink # UrNode D-Node Length Lane Number Roadway Type F tow FFSRWidth of Lanes , Flow Rate5051525354555657585960616263646566676869707172737475767778798081822356 4457 9.4952400 9833 4.2702432 2699 0.5982432 4311 2.8582448 2569 1.2002448 2680 0.7742451 2842 3.8352569 2451 3.3712569 8902 2.3632575 4174 1.7582631 2699 2.8212841 3185 1.1812894 2575 1.4173018 8778 0.5483028 4820 0.2663030 3043 1.1333036 3037 1.7403094 3132 2.5173094 8696 0.6893146 3445 0.4273146 4657 2.2813146 8832 0.4723185 3368 0.5823185 3837 1.8653257 5310 0.2893257 6741 0.6073257 9350 0.2603289 2400 1.4733289 3426 0.5143368 4412 2.2293426 4029 1.3313427 5173 2.2933427 5314 1.303121110101212121212111111111212101011121111111111111012121211111211Single-Lane RoadUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedRampRampRampRampRampUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadRampRampSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane Road14558008008005705705705705708001292129212921455145580080080014558008008001292129212928001455570570129280014551292553530302525252525354545455555303035553535354545453555252545355535IEM 2012 Page B-7IEM 2012Page B-7 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLane Number StrtoLink # U-Node D-Node Length Widt ofmanes Roadway Type Saturation FFSSWidth of Lanes .Flow.Rate 8384858687888990919293949596979899100101102103104105106107108109110111112+/-131141153427 9350 1.6223445 8832 0.533368+/- 8002 2.0343696 3986 0.7463696 4174 0.1743849 3850 0.0703849 385+/- 0.0763849 3853 6.9793850 385+/- 0.0583850 8766 1.3753851 1855 2.5333858 3986 0.4463881 0259 2.4493881 3445 1.8823881 4657 1.8024029 2400 1.9624029 4050 0.0554088 4096 3.6524088 9431 4.3024096 1855 1.8394096 9431 3.0634361 7642 0.7724361 7774 1.403436+/- 8572 0.5774361 9594 1.0834588 4596 0.4024588 6743 0.3034657 9941 4.0494690 4822 1.5504701 0259 0.3504701 8990 1.4184800 4801 0.5804820 4822 5.390121112111111+/-111111111111121+/-121111111111111212+/-2121110121112111111111111.I11.11Single-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedUnpaved11I+/-111UnpavedSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedUnpaved145580014558008008008008008008008008001455800145580080080080080080042001455145542001292800145580014558001292800553555353535353535353535453545353535353535555545554530453545353535UnpavedUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedMulti-Lane HwySingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadMulti-Lane HwySingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedPage B-8 IEM 20+/-2Page B-8IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLane Number Saturation Link # U-Node D-Noede Length Wiane Number RoadwayType Flow Rate n FFS** *Width of Lanes Roaday Tpet F116 4821 4822 0.524 11 1 Unpaved 800 35117 5048 5049 0.325 10 1 Unpaved 800 30118 5137 6088 1.535 11 1 Unpaved 800 35119 5137 9041 1.015 11 1 Unpaved 800 35120 5173 5174 0.011 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55121 5173 5179 1.667 10 1 Unpaved 800 30122 5174 8002 0.383 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55123 5310 5314 0.681 10 1 Unpaved 800 30124 5435 0168 0.280 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55125 5435 4457 0.103 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 35126 5435 4517 4.804 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4200 55127 5593 0337 2.879 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4200 55128 5593 5594 2.437 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40129 5593 8855 1.618 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40130 5594 2472 3.813 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40131 5594 5137 1.598 11 1 Unpaved 800 35132 5594 8908 1.142 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40133 5715 0168 5.929 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4200 55134 5715 5744 2.587 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50135 5715 5760 0.433 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40136 5760 5761 2.044 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40137 5760 5911 6.896 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40138 5761 1855 8.786 11 1 Unpaved 800 35139 5770 5771 0.223 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45140 5771 2011 3.042 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40141 5820 2126 2.898 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 45142 5820 2841 0.770 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 35143 5820 5911 1.832 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50144 5911 5915 0.592 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50145 5915 3368 0.730 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40146 6088 6508 2.066 11 1 Unpaved 800 35147 6508 6720 1.330 11 1 Unpaved 800 35148 6524 0161 0.749 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55IEM 2012Page B-9 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLink # 'U-Nede Length Ln Nubr Roadway Type. .. SauaIo : FFS* ~Width *of Lanes F16 FwRate ,149 6524 6669 0.408 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55150 6643 9274 9.847 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55151 6669 6882 1.892 11 1 Unpaved 800 35152 6741 6742 0.888 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 35153 6858 6882 0.005 11 1 Unpaved 800 35154 6862 3528 2.704 10 1 Unpaved 800 30155 6862 3681 2.072 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 45156 7081 3528 2.110 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 45157 7081 5174 0.360 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 45158 7081 8002 0.517 10 1 Unpaved 800 30159 7144 5715 9.316 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4200 55160 7159 4956 3.825 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50161 7159 5435 3.206 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45162 7159 5820 3.379 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50163 7189 7191 2.019 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50164 7189 7642 3.499 11 1 Unpaved 800 35165 7189 8689 2.660 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50166 7191 6720 3.446 11 1 Unpaved 800 35167 7191 7193 1.250 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50168 7193 5593 5.134 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4200 55169 7193 6508 2.497 11 1 Unpaved 800 35170 7212 5786 0.062 12 1 Ramp 570 25171 7212 5915 0.754 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50172 7212 7214 0.045 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50173 7214 4390 3.025 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40174 7217 7218 0.019 12 1 Ramp 570 25175 7217 7219 0.138 12 1 Ramp 570 25176 7218 5761 4.637 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45177 7219 7222 0.052 12 1 Ramp 570 25178 7219 7223 0.211 12 1 Ramp 570 25179 7222 7224 0.208 12 1 Ramp 570 25180 7222 7227 0.126 12 1 Ramp 570 25181 7227 7228 0.030 12 1 Ramp 570 25Page B-b IEM 2012Page B-IOIEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLink # U-Node D-Node Length Lane Number Roadway Type Saturation FFSWidth of Lanes
* Flow: Rate182 7228 4390 1.931183 7376 3028 0.290184 7376 9274 0.426185 7396 7399 9.767186 7396 7654 0.540187 7410 6643 1.196188 7410 6725 1.018189 7411 2451 1.538190 7411 7413 3.405191 7413 2680 2.911192 7413 9833 3.243193 7457 7458 0.021194 7457 8063 1.488195 7458 3396 2.863196 7458 3528 0.486197 7642 7673 0.634198 7642 8688 0.921199 7654 8697 0.704200 7654 8703 0.699201 7660 2842 1.594202 7660 3094 3.297203 7660 7880 3.270204 7660 8902 1.392205 7673 8572 0.138206 7716 2448 1.495207 7716 8902 1.278208 7718 2400 3.973209 7718 7825 2.794210 7720 0381 0.046211 7720 7218 0.220212 7720 7223 0.130213 7721 0381 0.022214 7721 7228 0.268121211121211111212121111111011111212121212111211121211121212121212Single-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadMulti-Lane HwySingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadRampSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedMulti-Lane HwyMulti-Lane HwySingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedRampSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadRampRampRampRampRamp14551455800145540001292129257014551455800129212928001292800420042001455145514551292145580057014558001455570570570570570404035405045452540403545453045355555504055455535255535552525252525IEM 2012 Page B-IlIEM 2012Page 13-11 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLink # U-Node D-Node, Length Lane Number RoadwayType Saturation, FFSWidth of Lanes R Flow Rate215 7721 7723 0.154 12 1 Ramp 570 25216 7723 7222 0.217 12 1 Ramp 570 25217 7723 7224 0.041 12 1 Ramp 570 25218 7724 7219 0.176 12 1 Ramp 570 25219 7724 7223 0.045 12 1 Ramp 570 25220 7724 7726 0.142 12 1 Ramp 570 25221 7726 5786 2.048 12 1 Ramp 570 25222 7726 7217 0.249 12 1 Ramp 570 25223 7727 5786 2.067 12 1 Ramp 570 25224 7727 7224 0.129 12 1 Ramp 570 25225 7727 7227 0.189 12 1 Ramp 570 25226 7754 6720 0.944 11 1 Unpaved 800 35227 7754 7761 1.299 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45228 7754 7770 0.785 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45229 7759 0157 2.341 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45230 7759 7760 0.207 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45231 7759 7762 2.004 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45232 7760 4091 1.352 11 1 Unpaved 800 35233 7761 0157 2.260 11 1 Unpaved 800 35234 7761 7762 0.331 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45235 7762 6088 2.390 11 1 Unpaved 800 35236 7766 7768 1.922 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45237 7766 7776 0.701 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55238 7766 7786 2.460 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55239 7768 6720 1.606 11 1 Unpaved 800 35240 7768 7770 0.483 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45241 7770 6882 1.173 11 1 Unpaved 800 35242 7774 3132 1.746 11 1 Unpaved 800 35243 7774 7776 1.184 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55244 7776 4588 2.567 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 45245 7786 4596 1.310 10 1 Unpaved 800 35246 7786 7787 0.812 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55247 7787 7789 0.843 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 45Page B-12IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLane Number p. StrioLink # U-Node D-Node: Length Width of Lanes Roadway Type FSaRation FFSj * *Width
* of anesFlow Rate FS248 7788 7457 2.948249 7788 7789 0.829250 7788 7792 2.551251 7789 6862 2.285252 7792 3150 4.475253 7792 8063 0.610254 7792 8524 0.651255 7797 1352 0.753256 7797 1417 0.752257 7797 7801 2.114258 7801 3150 0.803259 7801 7876 1.480260 7803 3030 0.961261 7803 7805 0.322262 7803 8778 0.364263 7805 8775 0.011264 7805 8860 0.537265 7808 0525 4.721266 7808 7809 2.248267 7808 7842 1.952268 7809 2253 0.311269 7809 7810 0.441270 7810 2253 0.285271 7810 7811 0.160272 7811 1949 0.550273 7811 7847 0.961274 7815 3696 1.648275 7815 3986 1.477276 7825 3289 1.464277 7825 7828 1.172278 7828 2699 0.603279 7842 7846 0.050280 7842 9043 4.584111212111211111210121211111111111112111111111111111112111212111212Single-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedRampSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane Road12921455145512921455129212921455800145514551292129212921292129212921455129280012921292129212921292129214558005701455129214551455455555455545455530555545353535354540453535454545454545352555454040IEM 2012 Page B-13IEM 2012Page B-13 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLinkl# U-Node D-Node Length Lane Number Saturation FWidth of Lanes Roadway Type Flow Rate FFS281 7843 7846 1.265282 7843 7847 1.219283 7843 9357 1.824284 7846 1479 3.721285 7847 7848 0.358286 7848 1949 0.575287 7848 8775 0.800288 7850 2631 0.334289 7850 7851 1.299290 7851 1952 0.981291 7851 7852 0.275292 7852 2253 1.992293 7852 8860 1.260294 7853 2575 1.706295 7853 2631 0.286296 7862 0722 4.367297 7862 4050 1.205298 7862 7864 1.355299 7864 3858 0.865300 7864 4050 1.674301 7873 1601 2.644302 7873 7874 0.368303 7873 7880 0.549304 7874 7875 1.425305 7874 8886 1.711306 7875 8524 1.893307 7875 9282 0.743308 7876 1680 3.416309 7876 9282 2.325310 7880 3132 4.543311 7883 3968 1.668312 7887 4800 0.9401111101011111111121112111211111211121212101111111110111111111112Single-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadRampUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane Road12921292800800129212921292129214551292145512921455129212921455800145514555708001292129212921292800129212921292800129214554545303045454545554555455545454535454525304545454530454545353555313 7900 3150 3.533 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 45Page B-14 IEM 2012Page B-1.4IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLane Number Satur.ation "Link.# U-Node D-Node Length Roadway Type FFS....Width of Lanes *Flow Rate&-.314 7900315 7900316 8063317 8264318 8264319 8264320 8268321 8268322 8268323 8268324 8271325 8271326 8271327 8276328 8276329 8276330 8366331 8524332 8688333 8688334 8689335 8696336 8697337 8697338 8832339 8907340 8907341 8907342 8990343 9043344 9043345 9080346 90803396342783664701776078870707739974119117289457717815328545968886339688868689869086908697870395948833890889909041904120959100369641741.4210.4421.4470.6671.0263.1613.0682.6010.8374.3194.2444.7041.0931.7681.8410.9831.4571.3210.0620.0700.0680.0140.5111.2752.2910.6920.7690.8790.8000.0116.6820.2220.306111110121212121212121112121011111111121212121212111111111112121211Single-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadMulti-Lane HwySingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadMulti-Lane HwyUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpavedSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadMulti-Lane HwySingle-Lane RoadMulti-Lane HwyUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedUnpavedRampSingle-Lane RoadSingle-Lane RoadUnpaved12921292800145514551455400014551455400080014551455800129212921292129214551455145542001455420080080080080080057014551455800404530454545504040503545453045454045454550554555353535353525404535IEM 2012 Page B-ISIEM 20.12Page B-15 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTLane. Number Saturation' Link # U-Node D-Node. Length Width ouLaees Roadway Type' FlotRate FFS....... Width *of Lanes .. .Flow Rate, F347 9080 9081 0.080 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45348 9081 3858 0.842 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45349 9081 7828 3.263 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45350 9081 7853 1.754 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45351 9100 5612 0.529 12 1 Ramp 570 25352 9100 7410 14.177 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50353 9100 9105 5.155 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50354 9105 2012 4.760 11 1 Unpaved 800 35355 9116 2680 1.413 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40356 9116 7716 1.192 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55357 9116 7718 0.376 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55358 9117 2842 2.089 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40359 9117 8703 3.946 12 2 Multi-Lane Hwy 4000 50360 9120 6669 2.069 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55361 9120 7787 0.734 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55362 9120 7789 0.496 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 45363 9120 7883 3.700 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 55364 9227 9620 1.858 11 1 Unpaved 800 35365 9281 9282 1.205 10 1 Unpaved 800 30366 9350 5314 0.831 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 45367 9427 0872 6.407 11 1 Unpaved 800 35368 9427 9428 2.090 11 1 Unpaved 800 35369 9427 9431 1.296 11 1 Unpaved 800 35370 9428 1855 4.932 11 1 Unpaved 800 35371 9428 6241 5.095 11 1 Unpaved 800 35372 9609 9620 1.317 11 1 Unpaved 800 35373 9630 0484 2.130 10 1 Unpaved 800 30374 9630 3018 3.238 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 45375 9630 5049 1.039 11 1 Single-Lane Road 1292 35376 9630 6741 2.564 10 1 Unpaved 800 35377 9763 2841 7.624 12 1 Single-Lane Road 1455 40Page B-16 IEM 2012Page B-16IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT#APPENDIX" C ': TELEPHONE SURVEYIntroduction The development of evacuation time estimates (ETE) for the area surrounding the VEGPrequires the identification of travel patterns, available
: vehicles, and household size of thepeople who live or work in the area. Specific data is needed in developing ETEs in orderto effectively quantify mobilization time and vehicle usage for residents responding to anevacuation advisory.
A telephone survey was conducted to interview a sample ofresidents who live within the 10-mile EPZ of the proposed nuclear power plant site toacquire information required for the ETE study.IEM secured the services of Survey Technology
& Research Center (STR) in Allentown, Pennsylvania to conduct the telephone survey and provide data to IEM for analysis.
Survey Instrument and Sampling PlanA survey instrument/questionnaire was developed by IEM, and was reviewed andapproved by Southern Nuclear project personnel.
The approved survey questionnaire wasused to interview a sample of residents who live or work within 10 miles of the site toacquire information required for the ETE study. To achieve a representative sample ofhouseholds living in the emergency planning zone (EPZ), respondents were randomlyselected to participate in the survey. STR fielded the telephone survey and provided datato IEM for analysis.
Calls were conducted in the early evening hours from Wednesday, June 6, 2012 to Monday, June 11, 2012. Only residents 18 years of age and older wereallowed to participate in the survey. Telephone calls were made during weekday eveningsand on weekends in an attempt to reach households with both workers and non-workers.
To ensure the highest quality of work was performed, a quality assurance plan wasimplemented in this survey process that included call-taker
: training, telephone monitoring by IEM, and extensive data quality control checks.The sampling frame consisted of a list of households within the study area. The surveyrequired over 500 completed surveys in order to achieve the desired margin of error of 4percentage points or less. However, there were not enough telephone listings available inthe databases used by STR to attain this sample size. Several efforts were made to get amore comprehensive listing.
With the available telephone
: numbers, the survey effortproduced a total of 200 completed
: surveys, resulting in a margin of error at 6.8% with95% confidence level.IEM 2012 Page C-iIEM 2012Page C-1 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTSurvey Results* How many people live in your home?Table 35: Household Size:. ZU/o2 42%3 17%4 13%5 or more 10%100%-80%-60%-40%-20% -0%-42%20%17%13%100%12 3 4Household SizeFigure 22: Household Size5 or morePage C-2IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTIf instructed to evacuate, how many cars would your family use to evacuate...
0 During the day?Table 36: Percentage of Cars Used to Evacuate During the Day1 bil/O2 27%3 or more 9%None 2%100% -80%-60%-40%2f% -63%27%9%0%1 -2%1 2 3 or more NoneNumberof cars used to evacuate duringthe dayFigure 23: Number of cars used to evacuate during the dayIEM 2012 Page C-3IEM 2012Page C-3 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTAt night?Table 37: Percentage of Cars Used to Evacuate at Night2 25%3 or more 9%None 4%100%-80%60%40%20%0%63%25%qo%1 2 3 or more NoneNumberof cars used to evacuate at nightFigure 24: Number of cars used to evacuate at nightPage C-4IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT* On most weekends?
Table 38: Percentage of Cars Used to Evacuate on Weekends2 30%3 or more 10%None 3%100%80%60%40%20%0%58%10%1 2 3 or more NoneNumberof cars used to evacuate on weekendsFigure 25: Number of cars used to evacuate on weekendsIEM 2012 Page C-5IEM 2012Page C-5 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTDoes anyone in your family rely on public transportation in the event of anevacuation?
Table 39: Percentage who rely on public transportation to evacuateI Ji02 1%3 2%4 0%5 or more 1%None 94%94%100%80%60%40%20%nO/3%1% 2% 0% 1%-ý ---iI.1 2 3 4 5or NonemoreNumber who rely on public transportation to evacuateFigure 26: Number who rely on public transportation to evacuatePage C-6 IEM 2012Page C-6IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT* How many people in your family commute to a job, or to college, at least 4 times aweek?Table 40: Percentage of Respondents who indicated there are commuters in the family1 2102 17%3 12%4 2%5 or more 1%None 43%100%80%60%40%20% ]nol43%27%17%12%2%1%'JI0O --1 2 3 4 5or NonemoreNumberwho commute at least4 times per weekFigure 27: Number who commutes at least 4 times per weekIEM 2012Page C-7 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTHow long would it take each family member who works to return home, including thepreparation time to leave work and the travel time back home?Table 41: Time to Return Home from Work1-b minutes W/O6-10 minutes 9%11-15 minutes 4%More than 15 minutes 82%Time to return home from work4 1-5 minutesE 6-10 minutes11-15 minutes0 More than 15 minutesFigure 28: Time it takes to return home from workWould the people at home evacuate on their own or wait for family members to comehome before evacuating?
Table 42: Percentage who would Evacuate or WaitEvacuate on own 76%Await the return of family members25%Page 0-8 IEM 2012Page C-8IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTIf you had to evacuate, how long would it take for the family to pack clothing, securethe house, load the car, and complete preparations...
During the day?Table 43: Time to Complete Evacuation Preparations during the Day1-5 minutes 17%6-10 minutes 13%11-15 minutes 7%More than 15 minutes 65%Time to complete evacuation preparations during the day0 1-5 minutes0 6-10 minutes11-15 minutes*N More than 15 minutesFigure 29: Time it takes to complete evacuation preparations during the dayIEM 2012 Page C-9IEM 2012Page C-9 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTAt night?Table 44: Time to Complete Evacuation Preparations at Night1-5 minutes 12%6-10 minutes 12%11-15 minutes 8%More than 15 minutes 69%Time to complete evacuation preparations atnightE 1-5 minutes1 6-10 minutes11-15 minutesN More than 15 minutesFigure 30: Time it takes to complete evacuation preparations at nightPage C-10IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT° On most weekends?
Table 45: Time to Complete Evacuation Preparations on Weekends1-5 minutes 12%6-10 minutes 13%11-15 minutes 10%More than 15 minutes 66%Time to complete evacuation preparations onweekends0 1-5 minutesN 6-10 minutes1 11-15 minutesN More than 15 minutesFigure 31: Time it takes to complete evacuation preparations on the weekendsIEM 2012Page C-11 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT* Do any family members require assistance because they don't drive or cannot drive?If so, how many?Table 46: Percentage of Respondents who indicated a family member needs assistance 1 1i1o2 5%3 3%4 0%5 or more 1%None 78%100%80%60%40%20%00/78%15%5% 3%0% 1%1 2 3 4 5or NonemoreNumberof family members who require evacuation assistance Figure 32: Number of family members who require evacuation assistance Page C-12 IEM 2012Page C-12IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT0 What type of assistance is needed?Table 47: Percentage of Respondents who indicated a family member needs assistance Just a ride, no special accommodations 96%A wheelchair van 4%An ambulance with medical equipment and personnel to provide special 0%medical attention.
An ambulance that can carry a stretcher, but no special medical attention is 0%required.
Other 0%Other-oAmbulance w/no medical attention CM Ambulance w/medical attention
<,0 A wheelchair vanJust a ride0%S0%S0%96%0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%Figure 33: Type of Evacuation Assistance RequiredIEM 2012Page C-13 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTThis page intentionally left blank.Page 0-14 IEM 2012Page C-14IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTAPPE NDI:X D:; PTV VIsION QUALITY ASSUR ANCE ANDINDUSTRY AcCEPTANCE INFORMATION March 28, 2006 4 ,_ &#xfd;Atraffic mobility logistics.
PTV America, Inc.Akhil Chauhan 1300 N Market Street, Suite 603Transportation Analyst/Modeler Wilmington.
DE 19801-1809 IEM, Inc.8555 United Plaza Blvd. Phone: 302-654-4384 Baton Rouge, LA 70809 Fax: 302-691-4740 www.ptvamerica.com RE: PTV Vision Quality Assurance and Industry Acceptance
 
==Dear Mr. Chauhan:==
Per your request, I am providing the following information concerning quality assurance and industry acceptance of the PTV Vision trafficsimulation and transportation planning software.
PTV AG has performed extensive research and development of the PTVVision software since 1992. The basis of the VISSIM simulation model isthe car-following and lane-changing models developed at the University of Karlsruhe, Germany since 1974. The first commercial release ofVISSIM was in 1993. The VISSIM simulation model components havebeen validated by PTV for accuracy and performance based on field datain Germany and the United States.A comprehensive quality assurance procedure Is conducted before eachservice pack and major software release by PTV, ensuring consistency ofthe results within acceptable stochastic variation.
A summary ofchanges/improvements/fixes for each service pack are provided in thereleasenotes_..._e.txt file included with any service pack.There are over 430 users of the VISSIM simulation software in NorthAmerica and over 800 users worldwide.
There are over 200 users of theVISUM planning software in North America and over 600 user worldwide.
In total, there are over 850 VISSIM licenses and over 350 VISUMlicenses within North America.
PTV Vision is accepted and used by over90 academic agencies in the United States and Canada, 18 StateDepartment of Transportation agencies in United States, 3 Provincial Transport Ministries in Canada, and the Federal Highway Administration.
IEM 2012 Page D-1IEM 2012Page 13-1 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTThe following public agencies are currently using VISSIM:" Arkansas State Highway Dept,* CALTRANS,
" Colorado DOT,* Florida DOT,* Idaho DOT,* Kansas DOT,* Louisiana DOT,* Michigan DOT,* Missouri DOT,* Nevada DOT,* New Mexico DOT,* NYSDOT.* Ohio DOT,* Oregon DOT,* South Carolina DOT,* UDOT,* Washington DOTtraffic mobility logistics.
PTV America, Inc.1300 N Market Street, Suite 603Wilmington, DE 19801-1809 Phone: 302-654-4384 Fax: 302-691-4740 www.ptvamerica.com The following public agencies are currently using VISUM:* AGFTC, Fort Edward NY" BMPO, Bend OR* BMTS, Binghamton NY* CAMPO, Corvallis OR* CDTC, Albany NY* El Paso MPO, El Paso TX* Farmington MPO, Farmington NM* KMPO, Coeur D'Alene ID* Las Cruces MPO, Las Cruces NM* LCOG, Eugene OR* METRO, Portland OR* MWVCOG, Salem OR* NOCTC, Goshen NY* PPACG, Colorado Springs CO* RATS, Rockford IL* Santa Fe MPO, Santa Fe NM* Skagit COG, Mount Vernon WA* Southwest WA RTC, Vancouver WA* SRTC, Spokane WA* WVTC, Wenatchee, WA* YVCOG, Yakima WAPage D-2 IEM 2012Page D-2IEM 2012 EVACUATION.TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTIf you have any questions about the PTV Vision software, feel free tocontact me at 302-654-4384.
Sincerely yours,Kiel Ova, P.E., PTOEProject Managertraffic mobility logistics.
PrV America, Inc.1300 N I'Mik.,t Street. SuitC, 603Wuhnington.
DE 19801-1809 Phono. 302-454-4384 Fax. 302_-6!1-4740 www.pi~vamerica.co mIEM 2012 Page D-3IEM 2012Page D-3 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTThis page intentionally left blank.Page D-4 IEM 2012Page D-4IEM 20:12 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANT'AP'PE ND-U1:. ,E:. ET"E REVI:EW C RITE R IA GiE CKLi S T3v2Table 48: NUREG/CR-7002 ETE Review Criteria Checklist Criterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed in CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)1.0 Introduction
: a. The emergency planning zone (EPZ) Yes Section 1.1 Site Locationand surrounding area should be Section 1.2 Emergency Planning Zonedescribed.
: b. A map should be included that Yes Figure 2: VEGP EPZ Boundary andidentifies primary features of the site, Protective Action Zonesincluding major roadways, significant topographical
: features, boundaries ofcounties, and population centerswithin the EPZ.c. A comparison of the current and Yes Section 1.3 ETE Comparison Chartprevious ETE should be provided andincludes similar information asidentified in Table 1-1, "ETEComparison,"
of NUREG/CR-7002.
1.1 Approacha. A discussion of the approach and level Yes Section 2.2 Methodology of detail obtained during the fieldsurvey of the roadway network shouldbe provided.
Section 3.0 Population and VehicleDemand Estimation (and sub-sections)
Section 4.0 Evacuation RoadwayNetworkSection 4.3 Evacuation NetworkCharacteristics Section 5.2 Evacuation Simulation
: b. Sources of demographic data for Yes Section 2.3 Sources of Dataschools, special facilities, largeemployers, and special events shouldbe identified.
: c. Discussion should be presented on use Yes Section 4.3 Evacuation Networkof traffic control plans in the analysis.
Characteristics Section 7.2 Evacuation TrafficManagement Locations and OtherPotential Mitigating Measures 3332 NRC. Criteria for Development of Evacuation Time Estimate Studies.
NUREG/CR-7002.
November 2011.Online: http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/contract/cr7002/
(last accessed October 12, 2012).IEM 2012Page E-1 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for VogUe Electric Addressed In CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)d. Traffic simulation models used for the Yes Section 2.2 Methodology analyses should be identified by name Section 5.0 Evacuation Time Estimateand version.
Methodology
: e. Methods used to address data Yes Section 8.0 Sensitivity Study onuncertainties should be described.
Population Change1.2 Assumptions
: a. The planning basis for the ETE Yes Section 2.1 General Assumptions.
includes the assumption that theevacuation is ordered promptly and noearly protective actions have beenimplemented.
: b. Assumptions consistent with Table 1- Yes Section 2.1 General Assumptions 2, "General Assumptions,"
ofNUREG/CR-7002 should be providedand include the basis to support theiruse.1.3 Scenario Development
: a. The ten scenarios in Table 1-3, Yes Section 2.4 Scenarios ModeledEvacuation Scenarios, should be Table 2: ETE Scenarios Modeleddeveloped for the ETE analysis, or areason should be provided for use ofother scenarios.
1.3.1 Staged Evacuation
: a. A discussion should be provided on the Yes Section 2.5 Evacuation Areas Modeledapproach used in development of astaged evacuation.
1.4 Evacuation Planning Areasa. A map of the EPZ with emergency Yes Section 1.2 Emergency Planning Zoneresponse planning areas (ERPAs) Figure 2: VEGP EPZ Boundary andshould be included.
Protective Action Zonesb. A table should be provided identifying Yes Section 1.2 Emergency Planning Zonethe ERPAs considered for each ETEthe RP~ cosidred or achETETable 3: Evacuation Areas for a Stagedcalculation by downwind direction in Evacuation Areeach sector. Evacuation Keyhole33 Because the VEGP EPZ does not have any population
: centers, traffic control plans have not been produced.
: However, Section 4.3 discusses traffic control points.Page E-2 IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtie Electric Addressed in CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)c. A table similar to Table 1-4, Yes Section 1.2 Emergency Planning Zone"Evacuation Areas for a StagedEvacuation Keyhole,"
of NUREG/CR-Table 3: Evacuation Areas for a Staged7002 should be provided and includesthe complete evacuation of the 2, 5,and 10 mile areas and for the 2 milearea/5 mile keyhole evacuations.
2.0 Demand Estimation
: a. Demand estimation should be Yes Section 3.0 Population and Vehicledeveloped for the four population Demand Estimation (and sub-sections) groups, including permanent residents of the EPZ, transients, specialfacilities, and schools.2.1 Permanent Residents and Transient Population
: a. The US Census should be the source of Yes Section 2.3 Sources of Datathe population values, or another Section 3.1 Permanent Residents credible source should be provided.
: b. Population values should be adjusted Yes Section 3.0 Population and Vehicleas necessary for growth to reflect Demand Estimation population estimates to the year of theETE.c. A sector diagram should be included, Yes Figure 4: 2012 VEGP Sector and Ringsimilar to Figure 2-1, "Population by Permanent Resident Population MapSector,"
of NUREG/CR-7002, showingthe population distribution forpermanent residents.
2.1.1 Permanent Residents with Vehiclesa. The persons per vehicle value should Yes Section 3.1 Permanent Residents be between l and 2 or justification be btwee JLand or ustficaionSection 3.5 Vehicle Occupancy Rateshould be provided for other values.b. Major employers should be listed. Yes Section 3.0 Population and VehicleDemand Estimation Section 3.2 Transient Populations 2.1.2 Transient Population
: a. A list of facilities which attract Yes Section 3.2 Transient Populations transient populations should beincluded, and peak and averageattendance for these facilities shouldbe listed. The source of information used to develop attendance valuesshould be provided.
IEM 2012 Page E-3IEM 2012Page E-3 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed in CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)b. The average population during the Yes Section 3.2 Transient Populations season should be used, itemized and Peak recreational population numberstotaled for each scenario.
Pa erainlpplto ubrwere used for the fall weekendscenarios.
Off-peak are estimated forother scenarios.
: c. The percent of permanent residents Yes Section 3.2 Transient Populations assumed to be at facilities should beestimated.
: d. The number of people per vehicle Yes Section 3.5 Vehicle Occupancy Rateshould be provided.
Numbers may varyby scenario, and if so, discussion onwhy values vary should be provided.
: e. A sector diagram should be included, Yes Figure 5: VEGP Sector and Ring Transient similar to Figure 2-1 of NUREG/CR-Populations Map7002, showing the population distribution for the transient population.
2.2 Transit Dependent Permanent Residents
: a. The methodology used to determine Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent the number of transit dependent Permanent Residents residents should be discussed.
: b. Transportation resources needed to Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent evacuate this group should be Permanent Residents quantified.
: c. The county/local evacuation plans for Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent transit dependent residents should be Permanent Residents used in the analysis.
: d. The methodology used to determine Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent the number of people with disabilities Permanent Residents and those with access and functional needs who may need assistance anddo not reside in special facilities should be provided.
Data fromlocal/county registration programsshould be used in the estimate, butshould not be the only set of data.e. Capacities should be provided for all Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent types of transportation resources.
Bus Permanent Residents seating capacity of 50% should beused or justification should beprovided for higher values.Page E-4 IEM 2012Page E-4IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed In CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)f. An estimate of this population should Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent be provided and information should be Permanent Residents provided that the existing registration programs were used in developing theestimate.
: g. A summary table of the total number Yes Table 10: Transit Dependent Permanent of buses, ambulances, or other Resident Evacuation Information transport needed to supportevacuation should be provided and thequantification of resources should bedetailed enough to assure doublecounting has not occurred.
2.3 Special Facility Residents
: a. A list of special facilities, including the N/A No special facilities, as defined in thetype of facility,
: location, and average NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in thepopulation should be provided.
Special EPZ.facility staff should be included in thetotal special facility population.
: b. A discussion should be provided on N/A No special facilities, as defined in thehow special facility data was obtained.
NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in theEPZ.c. The number of wheelchair and bed- N/A No special facilities, as defined in thebound individuals should be provided.
NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in theEPZ.d. An estimate of the number and N/A No special facilities, as defined in thecapacity of vehicles needed to support NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in thethe evacuation of the facility should be EPZ.provided.
: e. The logistics for mobilizing specially N/A No special facilities, as defined in thetrained staff (e.g., medical support or NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in thesecurity support for prisons, jails, and EPZ.other correctional facilities) should bediscussed when appropriate.
2.4 Schoolsa. A list of schools including name, Yes Section 3.4 Special Facility and Schoollocation, student population, and Populations transportation resources required to Section 3.5 Vehicle Occupancy Ratesupport the evacuation, should beprovided.
The source of thisinformation should be provided.
: b. Transportation resources for Yes Section 3.4 Special Facility and Schoolelementary and middle schools are Populations based on 100% of the school capacity.
IEM 2012 Page E-5IEM 2012Page E-5 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed In CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)c. The estimate of high school students N/A There are no high schools in the +/-0-milewho will use their personal vehicle to EPZ.evacuate should be provided and abasis for the values used should beprovided.
: d. The need for return trips should be Yes Section 3.4 Special Facility and Schoolidentified if necessary.
Populations 2.5 Other Demand EstimateConsiderations 2.5.A Special Eventsa. A complete list of special events N/A No special events were studied.should be provided and includesinformation on the population, estimated
: duration, and season of theevent.b. The special event that encompasses N/A No special events were studied.the peak transient population shouldbe analyzed in the ETE.c. The percent of permanent residents N/A No special events were studied.attending the event should beestimated.
2.5.2 Shadow Evacuation
: a. A shadow evacuation of 20 percent Yes Section 2.1 General Assumptions should be included for areas outsidethe evacuation area extending to 15miles from the NPP.b. Population estimates for the shadow Yes Section 3.1.3. Resident Population evacuation in the 10 to 15 mile area Summarybeyond the EPZ are provided by sector.c. The loading of the shadow evacuation Yes Section 2.1 General Assumptions onto the roadway network should beconsistent with the trip generation time generated for the permanent resident population.
2.5.3 Background and Pass Through Traffica. The volume of background traffic and Yes Section 2.1 General Assumptions pass-through traffic should be based It is assumed that little pass-through andon the average daytime traffic.
Values background traffic would exist after themay be reduced for nighttime evacuees start to load into the roadwayscenarios.
network.Page E-6IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed in CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)b. Pass-through traffic should be Yes Section 2.1 General Assumptions assumed to have stopped entering the It is assumed that little pass-through andEPZ about two hours after the initial background traffic would exist after theevacuees start to load into the roadwaynetwork.2.6 Summary of Demand Estimation
: a. A summary table should be provided Yes Section 3.6 Summary of Demandthat identifies the total populations Estimation and total vehicles used in the analysisfor permanent residents, transients, transit dependent residents, specialfacilities, schoolsshadow population, and pass-through demand used ineach scenario.
3.0 Roadway Capacitya. The method(s) used to assess roadway Yes Section 5.2.2 The Network Modelcapacity should be discussed.
3.1 Roadway Characteristics
: a. A field survey of key routes within the Yes Section 4.1 Network Definition EPZ has been conducted.
: b. Information should be provided Yes Section 4.1 Network Definition describing the extent of the survey,and types of information gathered andused in the analysis.
: c. A table similar to that in Appendix A, Yes Table 34: Roadway Network"Roadway Characteristics,"
of Characteristics NUREG/CR-7002 should be provided.
: d. Calculations for a representative Yes Section 5.2.2 The Network Modelroadway segment should be provided.
: e. A legible map of the roadway system Yes Appendix B: Evacuation Network Linesthat identifies node numbers and (Detailed Information) segments used to develop the ETE Figure 18 through Figure 21should be provided and should besimilar to Figure 3-1, "RoadwayNetwork Identifying Nodes andSegments,"
of NUREG/CR-7002.
3.2 Capacity Analysisa. The approach used to calculate the Yes Section 5.2.2 The Network Modelroadway capacity for thetransportation network should bedescribed in detail and identifies factors that are expressly used in themodeling.
IEM 2012Page E-7 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed in CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)b. The capacity analysis identifies where Yes Section 5.2.2 The Network Modelfield information should be used in theETE calculation.
3.3 Intersection Controla. A list of intersections should be Yes Section 4.3 Evacuation Networkprovided that includes the total Characteristics numbers of intersections modeled Table 17: Intersection Control Typethat are unsignalized, signalized, ormanned by response personnel.
: b. Characteristics for the 10 highest Yes Section 4.3 Evacuation Networkvolume intersections within the EPZ Characteristics are provided including the location, Table 18: Information for Ten Highestsignal cycle length, and turn lane Volume Intersections queue capacity.
: c. Discussion should be provided on how Yes Section 4.3 Evacuation Networktime signal cycle is used in the Characteristics calculations.
3.4 Adverse Weathera. The adverse weather condition should Yes Section 2.1 General Assumptions be identified and the effect of adverse Section 2.4 Scenarios Modeledweather on mobilization should beconsidered.
Because there are few extreme weatherconditions such as heavy snow at theVEGP, no significant impacts of adverseweather on mobilization are expected.
: b. The speed and capacity reduction Yes Section 2.1 General Assumptions factors identified in Table 3-1,"Weather Capacity Factors,"
ofNUREG/CR-7002 should be used or abasis should be provided for othervalues.c. The study identifies assumptions for N/A Because there are few extreme weathersnow removal on streets and conditions such as heavy snow at thedriveways, when applicable.
VEGP, no significant impacts of adverseweather on mobilization are expected.
4.0 Development of Evacuation Times4.1 Trip Generation Timea. The process used to develop trip Yes Section 5.1 Loading of the Evacuation generation times should be identified.
Networkb. When telephone surveys are used, the Yes Appendix C: Telephone Surveyscope of the survey, area of the survey,number of participants, and statistical relevance should be provided.
Page E-8IEM 201.2 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed in CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)c. Data obtained from telephone surveys Yes Appendix C: Telephone Surveyshould be summarized.
: d. The trip generation time for each Yes Section 5.1 Loading of the Evacuation population group should be developed Networkfrom site specific information.
4.1.1 Permanent Residents and Transient Population
: a. Permanent residents are assumed to Yes Section 5.1 Loading of the Evacuation evacuate from their homes but are not Networkassumed to be at home at all times.Trip generation time includes theassumption that a percentage ofresidents will need to return homeprior to evacuating.
: b. Discussion should be provided on the Yes Section 5.1.2 Trip Generation Timetime and method used to notify Estimatetransients.
The trip generation timediscusses any difficulties notifying persons in hard to reach areas such ason lakes or in campgrounds.
: c. The trip generation time accounts for N/A No Hotels are found within the EPZ.transients potentially returning tohotels prior to evacuating.
: d. Effect of public transportation N/A No Special events are expected.
resources used during special eventswhere a large number of transients are expected should be considered.
: e. The trip generation time for the Yes Section 5.1 Loading of the Evacuation transient population should be Networkintegrated and loaded onto thetransportation network with thegeneral public.4.1.2 Transit Dependent Residents
: a. If available, existing plans and bus Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent routes are used in the ETE analysis.
If Permanent Residents new plans are developed with the ETE, There are no specialized bus routes orthey should have been agreed upon by pick-up points. Per EMA SOPs, residents the responsible authorities, will be picked up at their homes byschool buses running regular routes. Nodesignated mass pick-up points will beused.b. Discussion should be included on the Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent means of evacuating ambulatory and Permanent Residents non-ambulatory residents.
IEM 201.2Page E-9 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed In CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)c. The number, location and availability Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent of buses, and other resources needed Permanent Residents to support the demand estimation areprovided.
: d. Logistical
: details, such as the time to Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent obtain buses, brief drivers and initiate Permanent Residents the bus route are provided.
There are no specialized bus routes orpick-up points. Per EMA SOPs, residents will be picked up at their homes byschool buses running regular routes. Nodesignated mass pick-up points will beused.e. Discussion should identify the time Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent estimated for transit dependent Permanent Residents residents to prepare and then travel to Section 5.1.3 Trip Generation Time fora bus pickup point, and describes the Transit Dependent Permanent Residents expected means of travel to thepickup point. Section 6.3 ETE Results for TransitDependent Permanent Residents There are no specialized bus routes orpick-up points. Per EMA SOPs, residents will be picked up at their homes byschool buses running regular routes. Nodesignated mass pick-up points will beused.f. The number of bus stops and time Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent needed to load passengers should be Permanent Residents discussed.
There are no specialized bus routes orpick-up points. Per EMA SOPs, residents will be picked up at their homes byschool buses running regular routes. Nodesignated mass pick-up points will beused.g. A map of bus routes should be N/A There are no specialized bus routes orincluded.
pick-up points. Per EMA SOPs, residents will be picked up at their homes byschool buses running regular routes. Nodesignated mass pick-up points will beused.Page E-1O IEM 2012Page E-10IEM 20:12 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed in CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)h. The trip generation time for non- Yes Section 3.3 Transit Dependent ambulatory persons includes the time Permanent Residents to mobilize ambulances or special Section 5.1.3 Trip Generation Time forvehicles, time to drive to the home of Transit Dependent Permanent Residents residents, loading time, and time todrive out of the EPZ should be Section 6.3 ETE Results for Transitprovided.
Dependent Permanent Residents There are no specialized bus routes orpick-up points. Per EMA SOPs, residents will be picked up at their homes byschool buses running regular routes. Nodesignated mass pick-up points will beused.Information should be provided to N/A No return trips are expected.
support analysis of return trips, ifnecessary.
4.1.3 Special Facilities
: a. Information on evacuation logistics N/A No special facilities, as defined byand mobilization times should be NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in theprovided.
10-mile EPZ.b. Discussion should be provided on the N/A No special facilities, as defined byinbound and outbound speeds. NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in the10-mile EPZ.c. The number of wheelchair and bed- N/A No special facilities, as defined bybound individuals should be provided, NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in theand the logistics of evacuating these 10-mile EPZ.residents should be discussed.
: d. Time for loading of residents should N/A No special facilities, as defined bybe provided.
NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in thelO-mile EPZ.e. Information should be provided that N/A No special facilities, as defined byindicates whether the evacuation can NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in thebe completed in a single trip or if lO-mile EPZ.additional trips are needed.f. If return trips are needed, the N/A No special facilities, as defined bydestination of vehicles should be NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in theprovided.
10-mile EPZ.g. Discussion should be provided on N/A No special facilities, as defined bywhether special facility residents are NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in theexpected to pass through the 10-mile EPZ.reception center prior to beingevacuated to their final destination.
IEM 2012 Page E-11IEM 2012Page E-11J EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed In CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)h. Supporting information should be N/A No special facilities, as defined byprovided to quantify the time elements NUREG/CR-7002, were identified in thefor the return trips. 10-mile EPZ.4.1.4 Schoolsa. Information on evacuation logistics Yes Section 3.4 Special Facility and Schooland mobilization times should be Populations provided.
Section 5.1.4 Trip Generation Time forSchoolsSection 6.4 ETE Results for SpecialFacility and School Population
: b. Discussion should be provided on the Yes Section 6.4 ETE Results for Specialinbound and outbound speeds. Facility and School Population
: c. Time for loading of students should be Yes Section 3.4 Special Facility and Schoolprovided.
Populations Section 5.1.4 Trip Generation Time forSchoolsd. Information should be provided that Yes Section 3.4 Special Facility and Schoolindicates whether the evacuation can Populations be completed in a single trip or ifadditional trips are needed.e. If return trips are needed, the N/A No return trips are expecteddestination of school buses should beprovided.
: f. If used, reception centers should be Yes Section 3.4 Special Facility and Schoolidentified.
Discussion should be Populations provided on whether students areexpected to pass through thereception center prior to beingevacuated to their final destination.
: g. Supporting information should be N/A No return trips are expectedprovided to quantify the time elementsfor the return trips.4.2 ETE Modelinga. General information about the model Yes Section 5.2 Evacuation Simulation should be provided and demonstrates its use in ETE studies.b. If a traffic simulation model is not N/A A traffic simulation model was used forused to conduct the ETE calculation, the ETE study.sufficient detail should be provided tovalidate the analytical approach used.All criteria elements should have beenmet, as appropriate.
Page E-12IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtie Electric Addressed In CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)4.2.1 Traffic Simulation Model Inputa. Traffic simulation model assumptions Yes Section 3.5 Vehicle Occupancy and a representative set of model Section 3.6 Summary of Demandinputs should be provided.
Estimation Section 5.1 Loading of the Evacuation NetworkSection 5.2 Evacuation Simulation
: b. A glossary of terms should be provided Yes Appendix B: Evacuation Network Linesfor the key performance measures (Detailed Information) and parameters used in the analysis.
4.2.2 Traffic Simulation Model Outputa. A discussion regarding whether the Yes Section 5.2.3 The Impact Modeltraffic simulation model used must bein equilibration prior to calculating theETE should be provided.
: b. The minimum following model outputs Yes Section 6.5 Example Model Outputshould be provided to support review:1. Total volume and percent by hour ateach EPZ exit mode.2. Network wide average travel time.3. Longest Queue length for the 10intersections with the highest trafficvolume.4. Total vehicles exiting the network.5. A plot that provides both themobilization curve and evacuation curve identifying the cumulative percentage of evacuees who havemobilized and exited the EPZ.6. Average speed for each majorevacuation route that exits the EPZ.c. Color coded roadway maps should be N/A No extensive LOS E or LOS F wasprovided for various times (i.e., at 2, 4, observed.
6 hrs., etc.) during a full EPZevacuation
: scenario, identifying areaswhere long queues exist including level of service (LOS) "E" and LOS "F"conditions, if they occur.4.3 Evacuation Time Estimates for theGeneral Publica. The ETE should include the time to Yes Section 6.0 Analysis of Evacuation Timesevacuate 90% and 100% of the totalpermanent resident and transient population.
IEM 2012Page E-13 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed In CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)b. The ETE for 100% of the general public Yes Section 6.1 Summary of ETE Results forshould include all members of the General Publicgeneral public. Any reductions ortruncated data should be explained.
: c. Tables should be provided for the 90 Yes Section 6.1 Summary of ETE Results forand 100 percent ETEs similar to Table General Public4-3, "ETEs for Staged Evacuation Table 24: 100% ETEs in MinutesKeyhole,"
of NUREG/CR-7002.
Table 25: 90% ETEs in Minutesd. ETEs should be provided for the 100 Yes Section 6.3 ETE Results for Transitpercent evacuation of special Dependent Permanent Residents facilities, transit dependent, and Section 6.4 ETE Results for Schoolschool populations.
Populations 5.0 Other Considerations 5.1 Development of Traffic Control Plansa. Information that responsible Yes Section 7.2 Evacuation Trafficauthorities have approved the traffic Management Locations and Othercontrol plan used in the analysis Potential Mitigating Measuresshould be provided.
: b. A discussion of adjustments or Yes Section 7.2 Evacuation Trafficadditions to the traffic control plan Management Locations and Otherthat affect the ETE should be provided.
Potential Mitigating Measures5.2 Enhancements In Evacuation Timea. The results of assessments for Yes Section 9.0 Conclusion andimprovement of evacuation time Recommendations should be provided.
: b. A statement or discussion regarding Yes Section 9.0 Conclusion andpresentation of enhancements to local Recommendations authorities should be provided.
5.3 State and Local Reviewa. A list of agencies contacted and the Yes Section 2.3 Sources of Dataextent of interaction with theseagencies should be discussed.
: b. Information should be provided on any Yes The ETE has been reviewed and nounresolved issues that may affect the unresolved issues were found.ETE.5.4 Reviews and Updatesa. A discussion of when an updated ETE Yes Section 8.0 Sensitivity Study onanalysis is required to be performed Population Changeand submitted to the NRC.Page E-14 IEM 2012Page E-14IEM 2012 EVACUATION TIME ESTIMATES FOR THE VOGTLE ELECTRIC GENERATING PLANTCriterion Review of ETE for Vogtle Electric Addressed in CommentsGenerating Plant Report ETE Analysis(Yes/No)5.5 Reception Centers and Congregate Care Centera. A map of congregate care centers and Yes Figure 7: VEGP Evacuation Networkreception centers should be provided.
: b. If return trips are required, N/A No return trips are expectedassumptions used to estimate returntimes for buses should be provided.
: c. It should be clearly stated if it is N/A The congregate care centers are locatedassumed that passengers are left at adjacent to the reception centers.
Nothe reception center and are taken by separate buses are required.
separate buses to the congregate carecenter.IEM 2012 Page E-15IEM 2012Page E-15}}

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