ML21197A174

Regulatory Information Conference (RIC) RIC 2021 Slovicp-m7

ML21197A174
Person / Time
Issue date:	03/08/2021
From:	De Messieres C Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
To:
Candace De Messieres (301)415-8395
References
Download: ML21197A174 (17)

Text

The Psychology of Risk:

A Brief Overview Paul Slovic Decision Research and University of Oregon NRC RIC March 8, 2021

Some Questions Addressed by 60 Years of Research

1. How do people think about risk?

2. What factors determine the perception of risk and the acceptance of risk?

3. What role do emotion and reason play in risk perception and decision making?

4. What are some of the social, economic, and political implications of risk perceptions?

Psychology of Risk: Key Points

• Risk and risk assessment are subjective and value laden

• Every hazard has unique qualities that drive perceptions and behavior

• Perceptions have impacts (ripple effects, stigma)

• Trust is critical: hard won, easily lost

• Most risk perception is determined by fast intuitive feelings (e.g., dread) based on experiential thinking, rather than by careful deliberation

• Understanding risk perception is critical for effective risk communication and risk management

Acceptance of Risk Tends to be Reduced if:

• the hazard is new or unfamiliar

• exposure to the hazard is involuntary

• the risk is not under ones control

• the risk evokes feelings of dread

• the outcomes are catastrophic

• the benefits of an activity are not highly visible or not fairly or equitably distributed among those who bear the risks.

Earliest Study of Perceived Risk Risk is left undefined Rate the risk to society as a whole on a 0 - 100 scale Motor vehicles - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

0 100 Pesticides - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

0 100 Drugs/Medicines - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

0 100 etc.

up to 90 items

Experts vs. Laypersons Perception of Risk Rank Order 1977 Laypersons Experts 1 Nuclear power 20 2 Motor vehicles 1 3 Handguns 4 4 Smoking 2 17 Electric power 9 (non-nuclear) 22 X-rays 7 30 Vaccinations 25

X-Rays vs. Nuclear Power

• X-Rays are perceived as more beneficial

• X-Rays more familiar, less new

• Medical profession is more trusted Benefit is the key

Risk is Multidimensional Qualitative Risk Concerns

• Voluntary - Involuntary

• Chronic - Catastrophic

• Common - Dread

• Certainly not fatal - Certainly fatal

• Known to exposed - Not known to exposed

• Immediate - Delayed

• Known to science - Not known to science

• Not Controllable - Controllable

• New - Old

• Equitable - Not equitable

Voluntary Involuntary Chronic Catastrophic Nuclear power Common Dread X-rays Certain not fatal Certainly fatal Known to exposed Not known to exposed Immediate Delayed Known to science Not known to science Not controllable Controllable New Old 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Mean rating

Importance of Trust Acceptance of any risk is more dependent on public confidence in risk management than on quantitative estimates of risk C. Starr

TRUST is the Key to Communication Problems

• If you have trust the path is smooth

• If you do not have trust, no form of phrasing or presentation is likely to be successful

Trust: The Asymmetry Principle

• It is far easier to destroy trust than to create it!

• Negative (trust-destroying) events outweigh positive events

An Experiment: Trust Increasing and Decreasing Events An experiment asked people to rate the impact of hypothetical positive and negative news headlines on their trust in the managers of a nearby nuclear power plant Trust-Increasing Trust-Decreasing Regular public meetings No public hearings Public tours encouraged Public tours not permitted Plant managers live nearby Officials live far away Health nearby better than the average Health nearby is worse than the average

Local board authority to close plant Evacuation plan exists On-site government inspector Rewarded for finding problems Responsive to any sign of problems Effective emergency action taken Local advisory board established Public encouraged to tour plant Impact Mandatory drug testing No problems for five years TRUST Hold regular public hearings Employees carefully trained INCREASING Good News Conduct emergency training Community has access to records Serious accident is controlled Nearby health is good Monitor radioactive emissions Differential Impact of Employees informed of problems Neighbors notified of problems No evidence of withholding information Contribute to local charities Trust-Increasing and Employees closely supervised Try to meet with public Managers live nearby Operates according to regulations Trust-Decreasing No problems in past year Record keeping is good Dont contribute to local charities No public hearings Events Little communication with community Emergency response plans not rehearsed Officials live far away Poor record keeping TRUST Accident occurs in another state Accused of releasing radiation Impact DECREASING Denied access to records Employees not informed of problems Delayed inspections Bad News Public tours not permitted Health nearby worse than average Official lied to government Serious accident is controlled No adequate emergency response plan Plant covered up problem Employees drunk on job Records were falsified 60% 40% 20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Percent very powerful impact

Impact Very Very small powerful 1 2 ...6 7 The county medical 3.0 8.0 26.0 24.0 examiner reports Worse health Trust Decreasing that the health of people living near 50% say Headline the plant is worse powerful impact than the average for the region The county medical 21.5 14.0 16.1 2.2 examiner reports Better health Trust Increasing that the health of people living near 18% say Headline the plant is better powerful impact than the average for the region

Another Lesson from Risk Perception Research

• Peoples political ideologies and worldviews strongly influence their perception and acceptance of risk.

• A possible topic for discussion.

Thank You!