ML18023B081

Susquehanna Units 1 and 2 - Amendment No. 4 Rev. 1 to Environmental Report

ML18023B081
Person / Time
Site:	Susquehanna
Issue date:	03/05/1979
From:	Pennsylvania Power & Light Co
To:	Office of Nuclear Reactor Regulation
References
Download: ML18023B081 (58)

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SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL SECTIONTITLEVOLUMEAPPENDX'XZS....~.............

~XIIB1ANEVALUAONOFTHECOSTOFSF.VICEIMPACTOFADELAYNTHEIN-SERVICE DTESOFSUSQUEHANNA ES(JANUARY1978............IXI CURRENTLONG-RAGEFORECASENERGYSALES6PEAKLOAD1976-10....................

~~IXIAPPLICANT'S FORECASNGMETHODOLOGY KMHSALESANDPEAKLOADSCE!1BER,1976.........IXI NATXONMIDE FUELEilZGENCYZSPONSZTOFPCORDERNO496..............

~XIISUSQUEHANNA RIVEMATERANALYSZSUMMARY..IIIEQUATIONS ANDSSUMPTIONS UTILIZEDNTHECALCULATION 0INDIVIDUAL ANDPOPULAONDOSESTOMAN.'IXENVIRON%EN ALTECHNXCALSPECIFXCATIONS..XII SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE1.1-31977PROJECTION OFAPPLICAN'A LOADS-CAPACITY-RESERVES (HIGHLOADPROJECTION YearWinterPeakMWe1978496019795320198056701981610019826480198368401984720019857570CapacityChangesFossil(Oil)NuclearHydroReratings 945(')945(l)63(2)TotalCapacities Fossil(Coal)Fossil(Oil)CT6(j~selHydroNuclearFirmPurchaseCapacityTransactions 4145164053914676(41)4145164053914676(50)4145164053914676414516405391461890764145414541454145164016401640164053953953953914614614620994518901890189076767676TotalMWe65056496643674268405837483438374Reserveoverwinterpeak:WithSusquehanna MWeCapacityXofLoad132622192530153411432216804llWithoutSusquehanna MWeCapacity%ofLoad154531117622766143265(65)(436)(807)(1126)(1)(6)(ll)(15)WithSusquehanna ButWithoutOilSHydroGeneration WithoutSusquehanna~

Oil8HydroGeneration HweCapacity(856)(1225)(17)(23)(1075)(476)(867)(1258)(1660)(18)(7)(13)(17)(22)(1635)(2075)(2466)(2837)(3208)(3590)(29)(34)(38)(41)(45)(47)Note:SeeFootnotes Following Table1.1-6.

SUSQUEHANNA SES"ER-OL TABLE1.1-41977PROJECTION OFAPPLICAFA LOADS-CAPACITY-RESERVES MID-RANGE LOADPROJECTION)

YearWinterPeakMWeCapacityChangesFossil(Oil)NuclearHydroReratings 19784820197950501980531019815690945(l)19825990945"'9836280198465601985685063(2)TotalCapacities Fossil(Coal)Fossil(Oil)CT6(j~selHydroNuclearFirmPurchaseCapacityTransactions TotalMWe4145164053914676(41)65054145164053914676(50)64964145164053914676~(11064364145164053914694576(65)742641451640539146189076(31)840541451640539146189076(62)83744145164053914618907641451640539209189076~(93(125)83438374Reserveoverwinterpeak:WithSusquehanna MWeCapacitygofLoad17362415314020943317831524'2722WithoutSusquehanna MWeCapacity$ofLoad1685144635291126217361342571242(167)(406)(3)(6)WithSusquehanna ButWithoutOil6HydroGeneration (665)(12)14(307)(618)(940)1(5)(9)(14)WithoutSusquehanna~

Oil6HydroGeneration (716)(955)(1275)(1665)(1976)MweCapacity(15)(19)(24)(29)(33)NOTE:SeeFootnotes Following Table1.1-6(2277)(2568)(2870)(36),(39)(42)

SUS(UEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE1.1-51977PROJECTION OFAPPLICANT LOADS-CAPACITY"RESERVES (IOWIOADPROJECTION YearWinterPeakMWeCapacityChangesFossil(Oil)NuclearHydroReratings 19784650197947201980491019815170945"'9825390945("19835650198459201985605063(2)TotalCapacities Fossil(Coal)Fossil(Oil)CT8(j~selHydroNuclearFirmPurchaseCapacityTransactions TotalMwe4145164053914676414516405391467641451640539146764145164053914694576414541454145164016401640539539539146146146189018901890767676650564966436742684058374834341451640539146189076(125)8374Reserveoverwinterpeak:WithSusquehanna MWeCapacity~ofLoad225630154456272448242323244138WithoutSusquehanna MWeCapacity4ofLoadWithSusquehanna ButWithoutOil6HydroGeneration MWeCapacitygofLoad185517761526403831(145)(3)6141112561025241975413323647382213947(140)(2)WithoutSusquehanna>

Oil8HydroGeneration (546)(625)MWeCapacity(12)(13)gofLoadNOTE:SeeFootnotes Following Table1.1-6.(875)(1145)(1376)(1647)(18)(22)(26)(29)(1928)(2070)(33)i(34)

SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE1.1-61977PROJECTION OFAPPLICAN'8 LOADS-CAPACITY-RESERVES (LOW-LOWLOADPROJECTION)

YearWinterPeakHWeCapacityChangesFossil(Oil)NuclearHydroReratings 19784530197945801980472019814890945(l)19825050945()19835230198454201985550063(2)TotalCapacities Fossil(Coal)Fossil(Oil)CT8(j~selHydroNuclearFixmPurchaseCapacityTransactions TotalHWe4145164053914676(41)65054145164053914676(50)64964145164053914676~llO6436(65)7426(31)8405(62)8374(93)8343(125)8374414541454145414541451640164016401640164053953953953953914614614614620994518901890189018907676767676Reserveoverwinterpeak:WithSusquehanna NWeCapacity$ofLoad253652335531442923666054287452WithoutSusquehanna MWeCapacitygofLoad1975441916421716153636311365271174229731894417WithSusquehanna ButWithoutOil6HydroGeneration MWeCapacitygofLoadWithoutSusquehanna, Oil6HydroGeneration (426)MWeCapacity(9)gofLoad1353(485)(685)(865)(11)(15)(18)9541974314(1036)(1227)(21)(23)522104107(1428)(1520)(26)(28)NOTE:SeeFootnotes Following Table1.1-6 SUSQUEHANNASES-ER-OL23.12.2Tornadoes Theincidence oftornadoes inthesiteareaisverylow.Betweentheyears1950and1973only38tornadoes werereportedwithin50milesofthesite.Tornadoactivityisatamaximumduringthesummermonthswithmosttornadoes occurring inthelateafternoon orevening.Figure2.3-1,TornadoOccurrence

<<ndIntensity intheSusquehanna SZSReqion,isahistogram fortheyears1953-1962showingtornadofrequency bymonth,hourandintensity withina3by3~squarewhichiscenteredonthesite.Theintensity cateqories arebasedontheFujitatornadointensity classification (Ref.2.3-5).PromFigure2.3-1itcanbeseenthatmaximumtornadooccurrence isinthesummer.Diurnally, tornadofrequency reachesamaximumduringlateafternoon, shortlyaftertheperiodofgreatestinstability 23.1.23Th>>ndecstormsThunderstorms intheareaareusuallyofbriefdurationandconcentrated inthewarmmonths.Theyareresponsible focmostofthesummertime rainfallwhichnormallyavecaqesaround3.7inchespermonthatAvoca.Basedona19yearaverageatAvocathemeannumberof"dayswiththunderheard"is30(Ref2.3-3).Amonthlybreakdown ofthemeannumberofthunderstorm daysthatisrepresentative ofthesiteisshowninTable2.3-2,Thunderstocm DaysforAvoca.2.3.12.4L~ihtningThereisneitherdocumentation nordirectmeasurement oftheoccurrence oflightning otherthantheobservation ofassociated thunder.Localclimatological datatabulated bytheNationalWeatherService(Ref.2.3-3)doesnotprovideinformation reqardinq theincidence, severity.

orfrequency oflightning occurrences A.thunderstocm canusuallybeheardunlesstheliqhtning causingthethunderismorethan15milesaway;therefore, thunderincidence canpresumably beusedtoconfirmthepresenceofsomelightning Thenumberoflightning strikespersquaremileperyearhasbeenestablished by,Uman(Ref.2.3-6).Thecombinedresultsofseveralstudiessummarized nyUmanindicatethatthenumberofflashestotheqroundpecsquaremileperyearisbetween005and0.80timesthenumberofthunderstorm dayspecyear.Themeannumberofdayswiththunderstorms probablyoverestimates theactualoccurrence ofcloud-to-ground lightning sincesomethunderstocms probablycontainonlycloud-to-cloud lightning.

2~33 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OLTherefore.

iftheannualthunderstorm frequency atAvocaisused(30days),thenumberof:groundlightning strikesisbetweentwoand24.23125HailHailinthesiteregionsometimes fallsfromseverethunderstorms.

Becausehailfallsinnarrowswaths,onlyasmallfractionofoccurrences isrecordedatregularreporting stationsTheaverageannualnumberofdayswithhailatapointintheareais23.Theoccurrence oflargehail(greaterthan0.75inchesdiameter) averaqesoneortwooccurrences annuallyAccordinq toPautz(Ref.2.3-7)thenumberofhailstorms withhail0.75inchorgreaterinaone-degree longitude-latitude squareareainthevicinityofthesitefortheperiod1955-1967 wasaboutfiveForAvocafrom1973-75therewasonehailstorm inJuneandoneinJulyof1973and1974.Xn1975therewasalsoonehailstorm inAugustandoneinOctoberTherewerenooccurrences ofhailrecordedin1976atAvoca(Ref.2.3-3)23.126ExtremeMindsStrongwindsoccurinPennsylvania asaresultofoccasional hurricanes, thunderstorms, tornadoes andtropicalstorms.Thefollowinq isthefastestmileofwindanditsassociated direction, bymonth,atAvoca(1955-1976)

(Ref.2.3-3).FastestMileofWindMonthmphDirection MonthmphDirection JanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayJune436049474043SEWSNWNWWJuly42NWAuqust50NESeptember 38SMOctober38ENovember45SDecember47SMThe50-yearand100-yearmeanfastestmilewindspeedsforthesiteareaare75milesperhourand80milesperhour,respectively (Ref.2.3-8).Accordinq toPautz,therewereeightwindstorms 50knotsandqreaterfortheonedegreelatitude-longitude squarethatincludestheSusquehanna SESfortheperiod1955-1967 (Ref.23-7).23-4 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-G'i.

TABLE2.3-33LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE (F)ATAVOCA(PeriodofRecord:1956-1974)

MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilJuneJulyAugustSeptember OctoberNovemberDecember33.518.435.344.758.970.019.327.238.047.879.083.056.861.380.759.273.652.163.048.836.142.232.822.0~DailMax~DailMiaMean26.027.336.048.558.967.972.270.062.952.640.829.167-10627889159327973410145944395308419771065ExtremeHicihestlowestAnnual58.939.849.4101Ref.2.3-3 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.3-49PRECIPITATION DATAFORAVOCA(PeriodofRecord:1956-1974)

MonthJanuaryFebruaryMarchAprilMayTotal(ininches)2.041.962.503.063.50Greatest24-Hour(ininches)1.521.602.201.592.58JuneJulyAugustSeptember OctoberNovemberDecember3.404.093.212.822.713.012.513.612.333.183.092.612.912.30Annual34.813.61Ref.2.3-3 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL.

TABLE2.3-81JOINTFREUENCY(%)OFWINDDIRECTION, WINDSPEEDANDSTABILITY FORAVOCA(PeriodofRecord:1971-1975)

Stability ClassBWindSpeed(kts)Se'ctorNNENEENEESESESSESSWSWWSWNWNNWTotal0-38989756544-6.1507.0548.05487-10.1164.0548.061642416758989911773.0137.0890.1507.2055.2877.0137.0205.0959.1507.21232118.2493.13011449.19181449.1986748.109665071.9726.1164.0890.10271.21921112.0411.0137768.0274.0342516.02050528.0274.006811-1617-21>21Total.3569.2071.1819.1660.1385.0721.0870.0698.2771.3364.4553~6773.6913.4531.3856.2871Relativefrequency ofoccurrences ofBStability

=4.8425Ref.2.3-4 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL SECTIONTITLEVOLUMEAPPENDICIESo orooooooeo~ooooooooorooroooooooooooIIIB1ANEVALUATION OFTHECOSTOFSERVICE.IMPACTOFADELAYINTHEIN-SERVICE DATESOFSUSQUEHANNA SES(JANUARY1978).......IIICURRENTLONG-RANGE FORECASTENERGYSALES6PEAKLOAD1976-1990.................

IIIB2APPLICANT' FORECASTING METHODOLOGY KWHSALESANDPEAKLOADSDECEMBER, 1976..IIINATIONWIDE FUELEMERGENCY RESPONSETOFPCORDERNO496.............

~IIISUSQUEHANNA RIVERWATERANALYSESSUMMARY...IIIEQUATIONS ANDASSUMPTIONS UTXLIZEDINTHECALCULATION OFINDIVIDUALANDPOPULATION DOSESTOMANoorooooo

~oreooeoooooooooor

~ooocoro~IIIENVIRONMENTAL TECHNICALSPECIFICATIONS...

~III Pit~PE'I SUSQUEHANNASES-ER-OLsite)andatDanville(about31miles(49.9km)downstream.

TheCorpsofEngineers hascompiledfloodstageanddischarge

.information fortheSusquehanna RiveratWilkes-Barre (Ref.2.4-7).Thesedataarebasedonrecordsoffloodstagesdatingfrom1991Dataforthefourmostseverefloodsofrecordarepresented inTable2.4-5,HistoricFloodsintheVicinityoftheSusquehanna SESTable2.4-5alsoincludesthestagesanddischarges forfloodsatthesiteandatDanville.

Thefloodfrequency characteristics oftheSusquehanna asmeasuredatDanvilleareillustrated inFigure2.4-6,FloodDischarge Frequency.

ThepassaqeofTropicalStormAgnesthrough.Pennsylvania onJune22and23,1972resultedinrecordfloodlevelsintheSusquehanna RiverBasinFloodcrestsexceededthepreviousrecordfloodlevel.of1936atWilkes-Barre by75feet(2.3m).AtDanville, alocalmaximumqaqelevelresulting froma1904icejamwasexceededby1.6feet(0.5m).Peakdischarqe atWilkes-Barrewasanestimated 345,000cfs(9,770m~/sec)oraunitdischarge of34.5cubicfeetpersecondpersguaremile(cfsm)(04m~/sec/km~)

.Accumulated runoffforthedrainageareaaboveWilkes-Barre fortheperiodof0000hours,June21,1972through2200hours,June27,1972totaled4.32inches(11.0cm)(Ref.24-13).24.25LowPlowsLongtermrecordsfromtheUSGSgagingstationsatDanvilleandWilkes-Barre providethedatabaseforthelowflewfrequencyanalysespresented inthisSubsection.

Longdurationlowflowfrequencyanalysishasbeenperformed bythePennsylvania Department ofEnvironmental Resources (DER).Theresulting curvesforlowf3.owdurations oftwoto60monthsandrecurrence intervals upto100yearsforDanvilleandWilkes-Barre areprovidedinFigures2.4-7,LowFlowDurationatDanvilleand2.4-8~LowFlowDurationatWilkes-Barre, respectively.

Tables2.4-6and2.4-7,Maqnitude andFrequency ofAnnualLowFlowoftheSusquehanna RiveratDanvilleandWilkes-Barre, Pa.respectively, discussthedischarge fordifferent recurrence intervals.

Tables2.4-8and2.4-9,DurationTableofDailyFlowoftheSusquehanna RiveratDanvilleandWilkes-Barre, Pa.respectively indicatetheriverdischarge (Ref.2.4-14).Themostextendeddroughtperiodoccurredinthe1960's.Thelowestconsecutive dayflowsforperiodsof183daysandlesshavealsooccurredinthisperiodThemeanmonthlyflowsatDanvilleandWilkes-Barre areprovidedinTable2.4-10a,MeanMonthlyDroughtYearFlowSequences.

MeanDailyFlowsDuring1964Drought,Table2.4-10bforthesetwostationsareprovidedforthefourlowestflowmonthsofthisyear24-5 SUSQUEHANNASES-ER-OLApolicydecision'oftheSusquehanna RiverBasinCommission reqardinq consumptive withdrawals duringlowflowperiodsprovidesthatnaturalflowsduringdroughtswillnothediminished byfuturewaterusers.OnSeptember 301976,thispolicydecisionwasimplemented asanAmendment to18CFRPart80'3(Susquehanna RiverBasinCommission, SubpartD-Standards forReview,Section803.61,Consumptive UsesofMater)(Ref.2.4-15).Compensation shallbereguiredforconsumptive usesofwaterduringperiodsoflowflow.Theprovisions ofthisregulation applytoconsumptive usesinitiated sinceJanuary23,19712426Sedimentation Annualsedimentyieldsinthereqionsurrounding thesitearespacially uniform.Neasurements atTowanda,Pa.about105miles(169km)abovethestation,indicateonannua'ediment yieldof150tons/sqmi(52.5metrictons/km~)

fromadrainaqeareaof7797sqmi(20,194km~).AnnualyieldsatDanville, 11,220sqmi(29,060km~)drainageareaareestimated tobe140tons/sqmi(49.0metrictons/km~)

(Ref24-8).Dailysedimentdischarges atindividual stationsarehighlyvariableThedailysedimentdischarqe atDanvilleranqesfromahighof556,000tons/day(504,400metrictons/day) toalowof18tons/day(16.3metrictons/day)

.Materqualitysamplinqatthesiteincludedmeasurement oftotalsuspended solidsArangeofvaluesfrom1.6mg/1to912.6mq/1withanaveraqevalueof57.0mg/1wasfound.TheseresultsarefurtherreportedinSubsection 2.43.Grainsizeanalysiswasperformed onwatersamplestakenin1974usinqanautomatic imageanalyzer.

Thegrainsizedetermination wasperformed ontreatedanduntreated riverwatersamples.Theresultsfortheuntreated samplesarereportedinTable24-11,SedimentGrainSizeDistribution.

2427MaterImpoundments TheSusquehanna Riversuppliesallthewaterrequiredfornormalstationoperation.

Aseven-acre (2.8ha.)spray'ond islocatedonsitetosupplywatertoemergency heatdissipation systems.Thewarmedwaterfromthereactorsiscooledviathepond'sspraysystemandthenrecirculated throuqhtheemergency coolingsystems.Thisspraypondhasarelatively impervious liner.Itisfree-forminshapetoconformtothenaturaltopography ofthearea.Embankments andditchesareprovidedtodirectsurfacewater2.4-6 SUS(}UEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2MONTHLYAVERAGERIVERCONDITIONS STAGE,VEIOCITYANDDISCHARGE OCTOBERSTATION(RiverMile)~Sunbury(122.0)STAGEVELOCITYDIS(HARGE (Ft.msl)(Ft/sec)(Ft/sec)PresentProectedPresentProectedPresentProected420.9420.92.01.991648631Northumberland (123.5)Volverton Sta.(128.5)Danville(134.7)Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(162.4)Mapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165;5)Shickshinny (169.5)422.9427.8434.6447.9453.5457.4476.4477.6483.0483.3484.7487.9422.8427.6434.4447.7453.3'57.

2476.3477.4482.9483.1484.5487.70.83.01.81.61.01.61.91.61.51.02'0.73.31.81.61.01.51.01.91.51.40.92.75144512250834939474947494623462346234623459545704761474247074590440814408429042904290429042804270

SUS(}UEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

STATION(RiverMile)Sunbury(122.0)Northumberland (123.5)Wolverton Sta.(128.5)Danville(134.7)Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(162.4)Wapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165.5)Shickshinny (169.5)425.0429.8437.1451.2456.2460.0478.9479.8484.8485.5487.4490.8424.9429.7437.0451.1456.159.9478.8479.7484.8485.4487.3490.71.02.42.21.91.52.21.62.02.12.41.63.91.02.42.21.91.52.11.52.02'2.31.63.9124781209512457120771242112045120901174111648113071164811307113561102311356110231135611023113561102311291109761123210932STAGEVELOCITYDIS(HARGE (Ft.msl)(Ft/sec)(Ft/sec)PresentProectedPresentProectedPresentProected422.0421.93.43.42114620613 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

STATION(RiverMile)STAGEVELOCITYDIS(HARGE (Ft.msl)(Ft/sec)(Pt/sec)PresentProectedPresentProectedPresentPro'ected Sunbury(122.0)Northumberland (123.5)Wolverton Sta.(128.5)Danville(134.7)Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(162')Wapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165.5)Shickshinny (169.5)426.2426.1431.0430.9438.5438.4453.2453.0457.5457.4461.4461.3480.2480.10481.1481.0485'485.7-486.7486.6488.8488.7492.4492.3422.6422.64.22.52.42.01.82.51.82.22.32.92.04.24.22.52.42.01.72.51.82.22.32.81.94.22984218028179581783517348166981669816270162701627016270161751608929309176451757817459169991635716357159371593715937159371586015789

SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

STATION(RiverMile)STAGE(Ft.msl)PresentPro'ected VELOCITY(Ft/sec)PresentProectedDIS(HARGE (Ft/sec)PresentProectedSunbury(122.0)Northumberland (123.5)Volverton Sta.(128.5)Danville(134.7)Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(162.4)Mapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165.5)Shickshinny (169.5)425.6425.6430.4430.3437.7437.6452.0451.9456.7456.6460.6460.5479.5479.4480.4480.3485.2485.2486.0485.9488.0487.9491.5491.4422.3422.33.92.42.31.91.62.3-l.72.12.22.61.84.03.81.02.42.31.91.62.31.72.12.22.51.74.02585214978149081478514349137681376813384133841338413384132991322225319145951452814409140001342713427130511305113051130511298412922

)0 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

STATION(RiverMile)STAGE(Ft.msl)PresentProectedVELOCITY*(Ft/sec)PresentProectedDIS(HARGE (Ft/sec)PresentProectedSunbury(122.0)Northumberland (123.5)Wolverton Sta.(128.5)Danville(134.7)Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(162.4)Wapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165.5)Shickshinny (169.5)422.7426.2430.9438.3453.0457.5461.4480.1481.0485.8486.7488.7492.3422.6426.2430.8438.3452.9457.4461.3480.1481.0485.7486.6488.6492.24.32.52.42.01.82.51.82.22.32.81.94.24.32.52.42.01.82.51.82.12.32.81.94.21757617193174791709917308169321692016571166851634416685163441607115738160711573816071157381607115738158281551315759154593070430171 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

STATION(RiverMile)STAGE(Ft.msl)PresentProectedVELOCITY(Ft/sec)PresentProectedDIS)HARGE (Ft/sec)PresentProectedSunbury(122.0)Northumberland (123.5)Wolverton Sta.(128.5)Danville(134.7)428.7428.7433.4433.4441.2441.1424.4424.45.61.32.72.85.61.32.72.85542031852317323152154887314693135231143Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(164.2)Wapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165.5)Shickshinny (169.5)456.7460.4464.4482.9483.8488.0489.4491.9495.9456.7460.3464.4482.8483.7488.0489.4491.8495.92.42.33.12.52.62.93.82.75.02.42.33.12.52.62.93.82.75.0310653045830458300583005830058300582996929888307163011730117297252972529725297252965429588

SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

STATION(RiverMile)STAGE(Ft.msl)PresentProectedVELOCITY(Ft/sec)PresentProectedDIS(HARGE (Ft/sec)PresentProectedSunbury(122.0)Northumberland (123.5)Wolverton

'Sta.(128')Danville(134.7)Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(162.4)Mapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165.5)Shickshinny (169.5)424.8429.2434.2442.1457.9461.3465.3483.6484.6488.7490.2492.8497.0424.7429.2434.2442.0457.8461;2465.3483.6484.6488.7490.2492.8496.95.85.91.41.437415370322.82.837256368762.92.936978366022.52.536331359822.52.535469351283.33-335469351282.72.734900345672.72.734900345673.03.034900345674.14.134900345672.92.934774344595.35.334659343596135460821 0

STATION(RiverMile)SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

STAGEVELOCITY(Ft.msl)(Ft/sec)PresentProectedPresentProectedDIS(HARGE (Ft/sec)PresentProectedSunbury(122.0)Northumberland (123.5)Wolverton Sta.(128.5)Danville(134.7)Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(162.4)Wapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165.5)Shickshinny (169.5)423.0426.7431.3438.7453.5457.8461.7480.4481.4486.0487.0489.1492.8423.0426.7431.2438.7453.4457.7461.7480.4481.3486.0486.9489.0492.74.62.52.42.01.82.61.92.22.43.02.04.34.52.52.42.01.82.51.92.22.42.92.04'350153488219326189431922918849190601868418567.1821817909175681790917568174751714217475171421745717142174751714217379170641729116991 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

STATION()(RiverMile)Sunbury(122.0)Northumberland (123.5)Wolverton Sta.(128.5)Danville(134.7)Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(162.4)Wapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165.5)Shickshinny (169.5)424.8424;7429.5429.4436.7436.6450.6450.5455.7455.6459.5459.447.8.5478.3479.4484.5479.3484.5485.1485.0486.9486.8490.3490.2STAGE(Ft.msl)PresentProected421.8421.83.43.30.90.92.42.42.22.11.81.81.41.42.12.01.51.42.02.0~2.02.02.22.21.51.53.83.7VELOCITY(Ft/sec)PresentPro'ected1110810725110541067410959105831063810289102119870102119870993095979930959799309597993095979868955398119511DIS(HARGE (Ft/sec)PresentProected1991519382 SUS(}UEHANNA SES-ER-OI TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

STATION(RiverMile)STAGE(Ft.msl)PresentProectedVELOCITY(Ft/sec)PresentProectedDIS(HARGE (Zt/sec)PresentProectedSunbury(122.0)Northumberland (123.5)Volverton Sta.(128.5)Danville(134.7)Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(162.4)Mapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165.5)Shickshinny (169.5)421.0423.0427.8434.7448.0453.6457.5476.6477.7483.2483.5484.9488.1420.9422.9427.7434.5447.8453.4457.3476.4.477.5483.0483.3484.7487.92.00.73.01.81.61.61.91.61.51.02.92.00.73.21.81.61.01.61.91.61.41.02.852774894524748675194481851164767501246715012467149444611494446114944461149444611492946144915461597349201

SUS(}UEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

STATION()(RiverMile)STAGE(Ft.msl)PresentProectedVELOCI1Y(Ft/sec)PresentProectedDIS(HARGE (Ft/sec)PresentProectedSunbury(122.0)Northumberland (123.5)Wolverton Sta.(128.5)Danville(134.7)Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(162.4)Wapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165.5)Shickshinny (169.5)422.2422.1427.2427.1433.8433.6446.7446.2452.5452.2456.5.456.3475.6475.5476.7476.5482.2482.0482.4482.2483.6483.4487.5487.1420.6420.51.50.74.41.71.70.91.30.92.11.41.20.82.01.50.64.21.61.90.91.30.8,2.31.30.71.965203480346034253278308230822953295329532953292428985987309730803049292927412741262026202620262026202598 STATION(RiverMile)SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

STAGEVELOCITY(Ft.msl)(Ft/sec)PresentProectedPresentProectedDIS(HARGE (Ft/sec)PresentProectedSunbury(122.O)Northumberland (123.5)Wolverton Sta.(128.5)Danville(134.7)Catawissa (143.7)Bloomsburg (146.6)Almedia(150.4)Berwick(159.1)Nescopeck (160.0)BeachHaven(162.4)Wapwallopen (163.9)PlantSite(165.5)Shickshinny (169.5)42o.6422.2427.2433.8446.9452.5456.6475.7476.8482.2482.4483.7487.5420.5422.0427.2433.'6446.3452.3456.4475.5476.6482.1482.2483.5487.11.40.74.41.71.60.91.30.92.11.41.20.82.01.40.74.31.71.90.91.30.82.21.40.72.035823199356831883543316733833034317028293170282929532620303026973030269730302697299926842971267161375604 SUS(}UEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4-2(Continued)

Stationlocations areindicated asthenearestmunicipality orfeaturetotherivercross-section usedinthecomputations.

Theexactcross-section locationisindicated byrivermile.OneFoot=0.3048meterOneFootPerSecond=0.3048meterpersecondOneCubicFootPerSecond=0.0283cubicmeterspersecond.

SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLE2.4"3MONTHLYPERCENTCHANCEOFFLOODINGSUSUEHANNARIVERUPSTREAMOFSUNBURYMonthJanPercentChanceofFloodin6.8FebMarAprMayJunJulAugSeptOctNovDec7.540.419.08.22,12.11.41.03.42.75.4(1)Sunburyis43miles(69km)downstream ofthesiteattheconfluence oftheSusquehanna RiverandtheWestBranchSusquehanna River.

SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL SECTIONTITLEVOLUMEAPPENDXCIESeesssseoeos~ee~eeeessssssss~seses~seIIIB1ANEVALUATION OFTHECOSTOFSERVICEIMPACTOFADELAYINTHEIN-SERVICE DATESOFSUSQUEHANNA SES(JANUARY1978).....IIICURRENTLONG-RANGE FORECASTENERGYSALESPEAKLOAD1976-1990......................III B2APPLICANT' FORECASTING NETHODOLOGY KMHSALESANDPEAKLOADSDECEMBER, 1976...IIINATXONMIDEFUELEilERGENCYRESPONSETOFPCORDERNO496....................

~IIISUSQUEHANNA RIVERMATERANALYSESSUNHARY..IIIEQUATIONS ANDASSUMPTIONS UTXLIZEDINTHECALCULATION OFINDIVIDUAL ANDPOPULATION DOSESTOMAN....IIIENVIRONMENTAL TECHNICAL SPECIFICATIONS-

-III SUSgUEHAxfHASESEROLAccuracy1%fullscaleCurrentfull-scale deflection Inputimpedence ResponseTime'RritingTypeChartSpeedChannels1.0milliampere s1400ohms0.5secondsCurvilinear 3in/hour1oneachchart2charts/recorder Allrecording devices,translator=

andthedigitizer arehousedinaweatherproof cinderblock building.

Thisbuildinghasthermistatically controlled heatingandairconditioning.

6..1.3.1.15Calibration andYaintenance oftheSystemAllcalibration andmaintenance ispeformedatleastsemi-annuallyinaccordance withthefrequencies andproducedures prescribed inthemanufacturer's operating andmaintenance manual.61.3.1.1.6 DataAnalysisTheanalogchartrecordsareremovedevery14daysforinspection andanalysis.

Eachchartisremovedseparately andplacedinindividual boxeslabeledwithdate,instrument'nd level.Thechartsareinspected forbreaksinrecord,timeerrors,powerfailuresandotherindications ofsystemmalfunction andthenstored.Theinformation gainedfromthisinspection isusedtoupdateandverifythedigitaldata,andtolocateanomalies withanyparameter.

Theanalogrecording systemprovidesaback-upincaseofdigitalsystemfailure,sothatahighdatarecoveryratecanbemaintained.

Table6.1-2,DataRecoveryBates,givestherecoveryratesforeachyear.Digitalminutedataarerecordedatthesiteonmagneictapeforanalysis.

Atthebegi.nning ofeachscanofdataauniqueidentification code,thedate,'hour andminuteisrecorded.

After14daysofrecording, thetapeisremoved,labeledwiththedataperiodandforwarded totheApplicant, Thecomputer6.1-13 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL/facilityprocesses thesetapesconverting therecordedmillivoltaqes intoenqineerinq units.Anhourlyaveraqeforeachparameter iscomputedDatavalidity, rangeofhourlyaveragesandthenumberofvalidobservations contributinq totheaveragesaretabulated toassistinthedetermination ofdatareliability.

Comparisons betweentheanaloganddiqitaldataareperformed whenthebi-weekly reviewofthedigitaldatarevealsqu'estionable orinvaliddata.Temperature anddewpointhourlyaveragesarecomputedusingthefollowinqscalarequation:

B.=1Zr.B..n.jjii=1where:theaveragehourlyvalueforthejthvariable(inphysicalunits);B..thetotalnumberofminuteobservations duringthehour(normally 60),butifnislessthan15forthathour,dataareconsidered tobemissing;thei"minuteobservation onthe3+"variable(millivolts):

theconversion factortochangethej<hvariable frommillivolts intophysicalunits.Afterwindspeed(WS)andwinddirection (WD)areconverted frommillivolts theyarerelatedinthefollowinq manner:IfWSisinvalid(999)thenWDismarkedinvalid(999)andviceversa.IfWS)threshold (non-calm) andWD=0(implying calm)thenWDissetto360~(North)IfWS(threshold (calm)andWD)0(implying non-calm) thenWDissetto0o(calm)Hourlyaveragesarecomputedasscalarsforwindspeed.Winddirection averagesare,determined asfollows:Iftheassociated averaqewindspeedisgreaterthan1.34112meters/sec, (3mph),averageWDisdetermined byvectoranalysis(whereWSandWDforeachminutedetermines avector).61-14 SUSQUEHANNASES-ER-OLAPPENDIXB2APPLICANT~S PORECASTING METHODOLOGY KMHSALESANDPEAKLOADSDecember, 1976 INTRODUCTION ThePP&Lenergymodelforecasts KWHconsumption foreachofthemajorgroupsinthePP&LServiceArea;i.e.,oRESIDENTIAL oCOMMERCIAL oINDUSTRIAL oRESALE,STREETLIGHTINGANDRAILROADAneconometric modelisdeveloped byconsidering thedeterminants foreachofthesectors.Whilethemodel,bynecessity, isasimplification, itcapturesthecruciallinkagesbetweensectoractivityandKWHsales,providing theuserwithastructural framework forforecasting.

Throughthemodelausercanproduceaforecastofsalesforeachofthesectorsconsistent withaneconomicoutlook.Moreimportantly theimpactofalternative economicscenarios canbetested.Inarrivingataforecast, themodelutilizesinformation andforecasts oftheU.S.economy,thenationalenergymarket,theCentralEasternPennsylvania (C.E.P.)economy,localweatherconditions andcompanypolicy.Thisinformation isobtainedfromacombination ofexistingforecasting servicesandreviewswithPP&LEnergyConsultants.

ThePP&Lmodelbuildsfromthatpoint,measuring theimpactofthenationaleconomicoutlookontheC.E.P.region.Thisoutlookisthencombinedwithassumptions aboutweatherconditions andcompanypolicytoproduceaforecastofenergysalestoeachofthesectors.MODELSTRUCTURE Indeveloping amodelofelectricenergyconsumption foraparticular regionitisimportant to,Qrst,definethedemandconditions presentinthatservicearea,andsecond,measuretheirimpactonsalestoeachofthesectors.ThePP&Lenergymodelisdeveloped withinthistwo-stage process.Inthefirststageofthemodel,demandconditions aredefined,i.e.,climaticconditions, theeconomicenvironment, energyprices,andcompanypolicy.Weather,energy'costs andcompanypolicyareallexogenous inputstothemodel.Theeconomicconditions aredeveloped endogenously throughan'conometric frame-work.Thesecondstagemeasurestheimpactofthesedemandconditions oneachsectorthroughasetofeconometric equations, relatingsalestothosefactorsthatareknowntoaffectgrowth.Thegeneralflowofthemodelisgiven.inFigureI.

TheserviceareaeconomicmodelislinkedtotheDRIMacroEconomicModel,bridgingthegapbetweenthenationaleconomyandlocalsalesbyhighlighting regionalcharacteristics (i.e.,industrial mix,growthtrends,demographic mix,etc.)andbyincluding explicitly theimpactofthenationaleconomyontheregion.Thislinkageisprimarily throughtheindustrial sector.Forexample,thesteelindustryintheC.E.P.regionservesanationalmarket,therefore, theirsalesdependondemandconditions inthenation.Indeveloping amodeltoforecastthegrowthofthesteelindustryintheregionitisnecessary toincludenationaleconomy.Asanotherex-ample,thehousingindustryintheareaisheavilydependent onlocalwealthanddemographic mix,butadepressed steelindustrywouldlowerlocalwealththerebyslowinghousinggrowth.Thefunctionoftheserviceareamodelistoliterthesenationalconditions soastomeasuretheirimpactonthelocaleconomy.Thus,theelectricuseforecastisdeveloped inthefollowing way.Afore-castofthenationaleconomy,developed throughtheDRIMacroModel,isacceptedoralteredtoreflectPP&L.'sthinking.

ThatforecastisfQteredthroughtheserviceareaeconomicmodeltodetermine localeconomicconditions.

Againtheuserhastheoptionofaccepting theresultsoralteringthemwherehedeemsnecessary.

Theeconomics arecombinedwithassumptions aboutenergyprices,expectedweatherconditions andcompanypolicytodefinethelocaldemandconditions.

Finally,thisinformation determines theexpectedlevelofmegawatthour sales.Ateachstagetheforecaster hastheabilitytoadjusttheoutputofthemodelbeforegoingon.ItallowstheusertherequiredQexibility tomakethemodelausefultool.Thenextthreesectionsdetailthemethodology usedindeveloping theeconomicandenergymodels.SERVICEAREAECONOMICMODELTheCentralEasternPennsylvania (C.E.P.)economicmodelisconstructed tohighlight theregionaleconomywithinthePP&Lservicearea.Itprovidesinfor-mationaboutfourmajoreconomicareas:A.INDUSTRIAL SECTORB.COMMERCIAL SECTORC.WAGES&PERSONALINCOME.D.HOUSINGThegeneralQowofthemodelisdepictedinFigureII.Briefly,themodelunfoldsasfollows.Theindustrial sector,throughemployment, islinkedtothenationaleconomy.Thetightness ofthelocallabormarket,alongwithinflationary conditions, determine thelevelofmanufacturing wages.Inthenextstage,employ-mentinthecommercial sectorandpercapitapersonalincomearesimultaneously determined; theirlevelsaredependent onindustrial activityandareinterdependent witheachother.Finally,population ofthehouse-owning agegroupiscombinedwithlocalwealthandemployment conditions, andnationalinformation ontheQnancialmarketstodetermine thehousingmarketgrowth.Abriefdescription ofeachareafollows.0 A.INDUSTRIAL SECTORAregion'smanufacturing sector,primarily itsexporting industries, providethemajorlinkbetweenthenationalandregionaleconomies.

Thus,wewouldexpectthissectortofollowthenationalpatternsgiventhatitservesanationalmarket.However,weexpectthelocalindustries tomaintainregionalcharacteristics aswell,fromthestandpoint oflocational decisions onthepartofentering/exiting manufacturing

concerns, Inmodelling manu-facturing employment inthePP&Lserviceareaeveryattemptwasmadetoincludethesetwoaspects:linkagewiththenationaleconomyandregionallocational decisions

.B.COMMERCIAL SECTORThetypeofservicesprovidedandproductssoldwithinthecommercial sectorarequitesimilaracrossdifferent regionsofthecountry.However,thegrowthofthissectorwithinaregionisheavilydependent uponthelocaleconomy.Indeveloping thecommercial employment equations, thegrowthineachofthesesectorswascomparedtotheirbreakdowns nationally.

TherelativegrowthoftheareawasthencomparedtotherelativeU.S.growthinpopulation andpercapitaincome.C.WAGES,PRICES,ANDPERSONALINCOMEManufacturing averagehourlyearningsandtotalpersonalincomefortheserviceareaareforecasted withintheC.E.P.economicmodel,buildingfromtheemployment situation inthemanufacturing andcommercial sectors.Inaddition, aforecastoflocalinflation conditions isdeveloped directlyfromtheinflation conditions ofthenation.D.HOUSINGSECTORThegrowthinthehousingstockisanimportant determinant ofresidential sales.Therefore, intheeconomicmodel,weexplictly modelhousehold formations intheservicearea.Indeveloping thissectorwehaveachoiceoftwoavailable dataseries,household permitsfromthefederalgovernment andnewdwellingunitstatistics fromPPaLrecords.Thedwellingunitdata,considered morereliableandeasiertomonitor,wasused.Thelong-rundemandforhousingishypothesized tobea'unction ofthepopulation ofthehouse-owning agegroupandthelevelofhousehold wealth.IV.RESIDENTIAL SECTORTheresidential modelhasbeendeveloped toforecastsalestothetwomajorclassesofresidential service;viz.,electrically heatedhomesandgeneralresidential.

Indoingsothemodelisdividedintotwoblocks:oCUSTOMERBLOCKoUSAGEBLOCK Inthecustomerblockthenumber.ofresidential customers undereachoftheservicesisdetermined.

The'usage blockdetermines theaveragekWhusagepercustomerundereachofthe,services.

Totalresidential usageisobtainedbysummingtheproductofcustomerstockandpercustomerusageineachofthegroups.CustomerBlockTotalresidential customers inanyperiodisequaltothenumberinthepreviousperiod,plusthenewunitscomingon,lessthedepreciation oftheexistingstock.Inestimating ourusagepercustomerequations, theimpactofthefollowing determinants wasmeasured.

oHOUSEHOLD INCOMEoPRICEOFELECTRICITY oPEOPLEPERHOUSEHOLD oWEATHERCONDITIONS oCONSERVATION EFFORTSV.FigureIIIshowstherelationships thatareconsidered inmodelling thissector.COMMERCIAL SECTORTheCommercial Sectorpresentsadifficult modelling tasktotheforecaster.

Overthepast10to15yearsithasshownsteadygrowth,becominganincreasing portionoftotalsales;yetlittleinformation isavailable overthisintervalonthetypeofloadserved.Thebestthatcanbedoneinlieuofcommercial surveysandexpandeddatacollection istoincludein,themodelthoseeconomicindicators thatbestdepictthegrowthofthesecustomers.

Themodelling taskisnotoneofobtaining satisfactory summarystatistics, theycomerathereasily,butrathertobesurethattherealdeterminants andindicators ofgrowthareinthe'model.

Inadditiontotheoverallgrowth,thepriceofelectricity, weatherconditions andconservation areconsidered important determinants ofsalesandareincluded.

Salestothecommercial sectorarecollected byfourmajorclasses:oWholesale andRetailTradeoFinancial andPersonalServicesoOtherCommercial oSmallCommercial Thegeneraloutlineofestimating thissectorisexhibited inFigureIV.

INDUSTRIAL SECTORTheIndustrial Modelwasdeveloped toforecastKWHsalestofourteenmajorindustrial classes.Thesalesforecastfortheindustrial sectoris'theaggregation ofthesefourteencia'sses, thebreakdown ofwhichisgiveninthetablebelowandtheflowdiagram.shownasExhibitV.INDUSTRIAL SECTORBREAKDOWN OFINDUSTRIAL CLASSESSICINDUSTRY202223272832433(less331)331353611512Food&KindredProductsTextileMillProductsApparelPrinting&Publishing Chemicals

&AlliedProductsCementPrimaryMetals(exceptSteel)SteelManufacturing Non-Electrical Machinery Electrical Riachinery OtherMetalProducts>

OtherGeneralIndustry2 SmallIndustrial CoalMiningNote:l.IncludesMining(SIC10),Ordnance(SIC19),Fabricated Metals(SIC34),Transportation Equipment (SIC37)andInstruments (SIC38).2.IncludesOilaGasExtractions (SIC13),MiningaQuarrying (SIC14),TobaccoProducts(SIC21),LumberandWoodProducts(SIC24),Furniture andFixtures(SIC25),PaperandAlliedProducts(SIC26),Petroleum Refining(SIC29),RubberandPlastics(SIC30),LeatherandProducts(SIC31),Stone,ClayandGlass,lessCement(SIC32.less324),Miscellaneous Industries (SIC39).Intheindustrial model,fourmajorfactorswereconsidered:

oProduction ActivityoFactorSubstitution oTechnological ChangeoConservation VII.SUMMARYInsummary,thePP5LEconometric Modelforecasts th'eshortandlong-term kWhconsumption forthemajorconsuming sectors,inthe.PPaLServiceArea.Itutilizesforecasts fromtheDRIMacroModeltogetherwithregionaleconomic, demo-graphic,andclimaticconditions-to determine ascenariooftheserviceareaeconomy.Assumptions aboutthepriceofelectricity andcompeting fuels,weatherexpectations, theworkingagepopulation, andtechnological changesarethenmade,fromwhichpointthemodelproducesakWhforecast.

OutlooksarealsopreparedbyPPaLEnergyConsultants.

Intheresidential sector,themodelforecasts kWhsalesforElectrically HeatedHomesandGeneralResidential Service.Forbothoftheseclasses,salesistheproductofthenumberofcustomers andusageper.customer.

Thenumberofcustomers isafunctionofemployment intheservicearea,realdisposable income,newdwellingunits,thepriceofelectricity andcompeting fuels,andnewmortgagecommitments.

Usagepercustomerisdetermined, forthemostpart,bytherealpriceofelectricity, realdisposable income,andweather.Themodel,whichdevelopsthemathematical relationships amongthesevariables, thenfore-castsresidential sales.Commercial sales,whicharesegregated intofourcategories, areafunctionofcommercial employment intheservicearea,realdisposable income,therealpriceofelectricity, andweather.Thegrowthincommercial demandispositively relatedtothefirsttwovariables whilenegatively relatedtothethird.Bysolvingaseriesofequations, themodel'determines thekWhconsumption inthecommercial sector.Theforecastofindustrial salesmakesuseofestimates ofindustrial output,whichinturnisafunctionofmanufacturing employment.

Manufacturing employment, bytwo-digit SICCodesinthePPaLserviceareadependsuponcurrentlevelsofemployment andthelevelofproduction foraparticular industry.

Industrial outputinourserviceareaisdefinedastheFederalReserveBoardProduction IndextimestheratioofPPSLemployment toU~S.employment.

Salestothefourteenindustrial SICgroupsaremainlydetermined byfindingtherelationship ofkWhsalestoserviceareaindustrial output,therelativepriceofelectricity tofueloil,therelativepriceofelectricity tonaturalgas,andanytechnological changesthatmightoccur.Nomodel,regardless ofhowwellitisspecified, willforecastperfectly.

Therewillbeexogenous events,suchaslargenewloadsorchangesincompanyorgovernment policy,thatthemodelisunabletopickup.Inthesecases,theresultsofthemodelcanbemodifiedtothedesiredlevelbyjudgment.

VIII.PEAKLOADFORECASTInordertoadequately provideforourcustomers'emands forelectricity, adequategenerating capacitymustbeavailable.

Theamountofcapacityrequiredisdetermined byforecasting summerandwintersystempeakloadsfortentofifteenyearsintothefuture.Summerandwintersystempeaksareforecasted becauseitisduringtheseperiodsthatthegreatestdemandsaremadeonoursystem.Airconditioning loadcausesthesummerpeaks,andlightingandspaceheatingloadsareresponsible forthoseinthewinter.

PPEL'sestimating procedure producessummerandwintersystempeakloadsbydeveloping thecontribution madebyeachrateclass.Theterm"rateclass"meansallcustomers servedundersimilarrateschedules.

Thesaleofenergyforecastdeveloped byrevenueclassesisreallocated torateclassesusingobservedhistorical relationships.

Loadstudydataisthenbroughtintotheestimation process.Ourloadstudiesaredesignedtodetermine theloadcharacteristics ofaspecificclassofservice.Whenmetersareofthewatt-hour type,stratified randomsamplesofcustomers withinkilowatt-hour rangesareused.Inthecaseofmostgeneralservicesamplecustomers (upto7000kwwithdemandmeterbilling),

loadfactorrangeswithineachrateclassareused.Largercommercial andindustrial customers arestudiedindividually.

Dailyloadcurvesforthedaysofsummerandwintersystempeakarederivedforeverystratumofeachrateclassforanaveragecustomer.

Forcustomers studiedbykilowatt-hour ranges,demandpercustomerdataforeachstratumofeachrateclassaremultiplied bythenumberofcustomers intheuniverseofthatstratumtoobtainauniversedailyloadcurve.Thenumberofcustomers inastratumisobtainedfromtheCompany's billfrequency distributions.

Thiscanalsobedoneforyearsotherthantheloadstudytestyearbecausetheloadcharacteristics ofakWhorloadfactorstratumremainfairlyconstantwithonlythenumberofcustomers inastratumchangingfromyeartoyear.Dailyloadcurvesforloadfactorstratumarestatedasratiosofcustomermonthlymaximumdemand.Theseareappliedtothesumofcustomerdemandsineachloadfactorstratumasdetermined fromanhours-use distribution toobtaintheuniversedailyloadcurve.Foranhistorical yearthestrataofagivenrateclassareaddedtogethertoformthedailyloadcurvefortheuniverseofthatrateclass.Therateclassloadcurvesforthedaysofsummerandwintersystempeakofagivenyeararecorrected forlossestothenetgeneration levelandaddedtogethertoformthesummerandwinterloadcurvesforthesystem.Theresultischeckedagainstactualpeakloads.Usingthesetechniques wehavedeveloped rateclasscontributions tosummerandwintersystempeakshistorically forselectedhoursoftheday.Theratiobetweenclasscontribution tosystempeakandannualsalestothatclassiscalculated foreachrateclassatthetimeofsummerandwintersystempeak,foreveryhistorical periodanalyzed.

Thetrendofthisratioforeitherasummerorawintersyst'mpeakisfairlyconstantovertime.Foragivenclassthetrendofthisratioforthetimeofbothsummerandwintersystempeakisprojected throughtime.Byapplyingtheappropriate ratiostothepredicted annualsalesofanyfutureyear,thatclass'ontribution tosummerandwinterpeakisforecasted.

Thesystempeakforaspecifictimeperiodisobtainedbyaddingtogethertheprojected classcontributions tosystempeak.

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tCQ$5NATICNIIINcvsnu~cBmocIIIiIHCCRC.NISI~TOTAL~WAWHO@%.SALESIMDV5TTRIAL ScCTAExhibitV SUSQUEHANNASES-ER-OL contaminated byairborneradioiodine isapotential sourceofexposure.

Samplesfrommilkanimalsareconsidered abetterindicator ofradioiodine intheenvironment thanvegetation.

Ifthecensusrevealsmilkanimalsarenotpresentorareunavailable forsampling, thenveqetation maybesampled.The500-sq.ft.garden,considering 20%usedforgrowinggreenleafyvegetables andavegetation yieldof2kg/m>willproducethe26kq/yrassumedin~Reula~torGuide1.109(March1974)forchildconsumption ofleafyveqetation.

Theoptiontoconsiderthegardentobeatthenearestresidence isconservative andthoselocations maybeusedtocalculate dosesduetoradioactive effluentreleasesinplaceoftheactuallocations whichwouldbedetermined bythecensus.Thepermission ofdeviations fromthesamplingscheduleisbasedontherecognition ofunavoidable practical difficulties whichintheabsenceofthepermitted deviations wouldresultinviolation ofthespecifications.

Therequirement fortheparticipation intheEPAcross-check program,orsimilarprogram,isbasedontheneedforindependent checksontheprecision andaccuracyofthemeasurements ofradioactive materialinenvironmental monitorinq inordertodemonstrate thevalidityoftheresults.~ReoetingRequirement A.AnnualEnvironmental Operatinq Report,PartB,Radiological.

Areportontheradiological environmental surveillance proqramforthepreviouscalenderyearshallbesubmitted totheDirectoroftheNRCRegionalOffice(withacopytotheDirector, OfficeofNuclearReactorRequlation) asaseparatedocumentinMayofeachyear.Theperiodofthefirstreportshallbeginwiththedateofinitialcriticality Thereportshallincludea.summary(formatofTableF-1,Environmental Monitoring ProgramSummary)interpretations, andstatistical evaluation oftheresultsoftheradiological environmental surveillance activities forthereportperiod,includinq acomparison withoperational,

controls, preoperational studies(asappropriate) andpreviousenvironmental surveillance reportsandanassessment oftheobservedimpactsofthestationoperation ontheenvironment.

Intheeventthatsomeresultsarenotavailable thereportshallbesubmitted notingandexplaining thereasonsforthemissinqresults.Themissingdatashallbesubmitted assoonaspossibleinasupplementary report.

SUSQUEHANNASES-ER-OLThereportsshallincludeeitherexplicitly orbyreference tootherdocumentation, thefollowing:

asummarydescription oftheradiological environmental monitorinq programincluding samplingmethodsforeachsampletype,sizeandphysicalcharacteristics ofeachsampletype,samplepreparation methodsanalytical methods,andmeasurinq equipment used;amapofallsamplinglocations.

.theresultsofthelandusecensusesandtheresultsoftheApplicant's participation intheEnvironmental Protection Agency'sEnvironmental Radioactivity Laboratory Intercomparisons Studies(Crosscheck)

Proqram.B.Non-routine Radiological Fnvironmental Operatinq ReportsIfaconfirmed measuredradionuclide concentration inanenvironmental samplingmediumaveragedoveranyquartersamplinqperiodexceedsthereporting levelgiveninTableF-4,Reportinq Levels.forNon-Routine Operation, awrittenreportshallbesubmitted totheDirectoroftheNBCRegionalOffice(withacopytotheDirector, OfficeofNuclearReactorRegulation) within30daysfromtheendofthequarter.Aconfirmatory reanalysis oftheoriginal, aduplicate oranewsamplemaybedesirable, asappropriate.

Theresultsoftheconfirmatory analysisshallbecompleted attheearliesttimeconsistent withtheanalysis, butinanycasewithin30daysexceptinthecaseofthestrontium analysis.

Zfitcanbedemonstrated thatthelevelisnotaresultofstationeffluents (i.e.,bycomparison withcontrolstationorpreoperational data)areportneednotbesubmitted, butshallbediscussed intheannualreport.Ifradionuclides otherthanthoseinTable-F-4aredetectedandareduefromstationeffluents, areporting levelisexceededifthepotential annualdosetoanindividual isequaltoorgreaterthanthedesignobjective dosesof10CFRPart50,AppendixIThisreportshallincludeanevaluation ofareleaseconditions, environmental factorsorotheraspectsnecessary toexplaintheanomalous result SUSQUEHANNA SFS-EROLTABLEF-2SUSQUEHANNA SESOPERATIONAL RADIOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL HONITORING PROGRAHSam~leTpeAirParticulates SS-AP-551 SS-AP-1152 SS-AP-9A1 SS-AP-12E1 SS-AP-7Hl AirIodineSS-AI-551 SS-AI-1152 SS-AI-9A1 SS-AI-12El SS-AI-7H1 SurfaceWaterSS-SW-5S2 SS-SW-12F1 Dr~inkinWaterSS-PWT-12F2SS-PWT-12H2 Fish**SS-AQF-6AI SS-AQF-2G1 SedimentSS-AQS-llcl MilkSS-H-5B1SS-M-12B1 SS-H-1282 SS-H-7H2Location++NorthofI.A.SWcornerofsiteNearTransmission FieldBerwickHospitalPPEtLRoofNorthofI.A.SWcornerofsiteNearTransmission FieldBerwickHospitalPPSLRoofAtI.A.BerwickBridgeBerwickWaterCo.(treated)

DanvilieWaterCo.(treated)

OutfallUpstreamHessIs,areaFarmSchultzFarmYoungFarmCrytalSpringsDairyCollection F~PBUMC*SASA2/H~AnalsisGrossBetaGalenaEmittersI-131GamaEmittersH-3GrossBetaGammaEmittersH-3GamaEmittersGammaEmittersI-131GamaEmittersAnalyticalF~reCene*WQCHQCSASA2/H2/HUnitspCi/m3pCi/mpCi/mpCi/1pCi/1pCi/1pCi/1pCi/1pCi/g(wet)

PCi/9(dry) pCi/1pCi/1 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TABLEF-2(cont.)SUSQUEHANNA SESOPERATIONAL RADIOLOGICAL ENVIRONMENTAL HONITORING PROGRAH~SamleTeFoodProductsSS-FP-5B1 DirectRadiation SS-ID-3S2 SS-ID-4S1SS-ID-551SS-ID-7S1 SS-ID-11S2 SS-ID-9AISS-ID-12E1SS-ID-7HILocation++FarmSusquehanna RiverSusquehanna RiverNorthofI.A.On230KVTowerOn230KVTowerNearTransmission FieldBerwickHospitalPP&LRoofCollection

~Feemene*~AnalsisGanmaEmittersGamaDoseAnalytical

~Fremene*UnitspCi/g(wet) mrem/std.mo Frequency Codes:W=Weekly;H=Monthly;Q=Quarterly; SA=Semi-Annual; A=Annual;2/H=twiceeachmonth;CComposite.

Important classesoffishwillbeanalyzedseparately.

(bottomfeedersandgamefish)Hilkcollected andanalyzedsemi-monthly fromAprilthroughOctober-monthlyduringothermonths.ShowninFigure.

SUSQUEHANNA SESEROLTABLEF-3DETECTION CAPABILITIES FORENVIRONMENTAL SAMPLEANALYSISMINIMUMDETECTABLE LEVEL(MDL)AnalysisWater(pCi/l)AirborneParticulate orGas(pCi/m')Fish(pCi/kg-wet)

Mi1kFoodProductsSediment(pCi/1)(pCi/kg-wet)

(pCi/kg-dry)

GrossBetaH-3Mn-54Fe-59Co-58,60Zn-65ZrNb-95I-131Cs-134,137 BaLa-140200102010200.310107x105x105x108517085170855c101016c,d50100 SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TableF-3(Cont'd)~Acceptable detection capabilities forthermoluminescent dosimeters usedforenvironmental measurements aregiveninRegulatory Guide4.13,July1977.Indicates acceptable detection capabilities forradioactive materials inenvironmental samples.Thesedetection capabilities aretabulated intermsoftheminimumdetectable level(MDLs).TheNOLisdefined,forpurposesofthisTable,asthatconcentration ofradioactive materialinasamplethatwillyieldanetcountwhichisdifferent fromthebackground countbythreetimesthestandarddeviation afterbackground count.Foraparticular measurement system(whichmayincluderadiochemical separation):

MDL=300SbExVx2.22xYxexp(-Xt)where,NOLisminimumdetectable levelasdefinedabove(aspCiperunitmassorvolume)Sbisthestandarddeviation ofthebackground countingrateorofthecountingrateofablanksampleasappropriate (ascountsperminute)Eisthecountingefficiency (ascountsperdisintegration)

Visthesamplesize(inunitsofmassofvolume)2e22isthenumberofdisintegrations perminuteperpicocurie Yisthefractional radiochemical yield(whenapplicable) istheradioactive decayconstantfortheparticular radionuclide istheelapsedtimebetweensamplecollection andcountingThevalueofSusedinthecalculation oftheNOLforaparticular measurement systemshouldebasedontheactualobservedvarianceofthebackground countingrateorofthecountingrateoftheblanksamples(asappropriate) ratherthanonanunverified theoretically predicated variance.

Incalculating theMDLforaradionuclide determined bygama-rayspectrometry, thebackground shouldincludethetypicalcontributions ofotherradionuclides normallypresentinthesample(e.q.,potassium-40 inmilksamples).

TypicalvaluesofE,V,Y,andtshouldbeusedinthecalculation.

Itshouldberecognized thattheNOLisdefinedas~ariori(beforethefact)limitrepresenting thecapability ofameasurement systemandnotasftfillifp SUSQUEHANNA SES-ER-OL TableF-3(Cont'd)c.MDLsforI-131inwater,milkandotherfoodproductscorrespond toone-quarter oftheAppendixI(10CFRPart50)designobjective dose-equivalent of15mrem/yearusingtheassumptions giveninRegulatory Guide1.109exceptforaninfantconsuming 3301/yrofdrinkwater.d.MDLforleafyvegetables.