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| number = ML103620049
| number = ML103620049
| issue date = 12/18/2010
| issue date = 12/18/2010
| title = 2010/12/18-Exhibit 50-The Case for Replacing Davis Besse with Efficiency Improvements and Renewable Energy Sources
| title = Exhibit 50-The Case for Replacing Davis Besse with Efficiency Improvements and Renewable Energy Sources
| author name = Compaan A
| author name = Compaan A
| author affiliation = Univ of Toledo
| author affiliation = Univ of Toledo
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=Text=
=Text=
{{#Wiki_filter:The following eight pages reproduce the slides that were used in the presentation by A. Compaan on 12/18/2010. Minor formatting changes were made and references moved beneath the related slides.
{{#Wiki_filter:DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page1 The following eight pages reproduce the slides that were used in the presentation by A. Compaan on 12/18/2010. Minor formatting changes were made and references moved beneath the related slides.
The case for replacing Davis Besse with efficiency improvements and renewable energy sources Davis Besse relicensing community hearing St. Marks Episcopal Church, Toledo, OH December 18, 2010 Alvin D. Compaan Distinguished University Professor of Physics, Emeritus The University of Toledo Overview of presentation
ThecaseforreplacingDavisBesse with efficiencyimprovementsandrenewable energysources AlvinD.Compaan DistinguishedUniversityProfessorofPhysics,Emeritus TheUniversityofToledo DavisBesse relicensingcommunityhearing St.MarksEpiscopalChurch,Toledo,OH December18,2010 Overviewofpresentation
: 1. History of Davis Besse indicates that 20 more years of operation will seriously endanger the surrounding communities.
: 1. HistoryofDavisBesse indicatesthat20moreyearsofoperationwillseriously endangerthesurroundingcommunities.
: 2. Davis Besse provides only 8.3% of First Energys baseload generation and can readily be replaced.
: 2. DavisBesse providesonly8.3%ofFirstEnergysbaseloadgenerationandcan readilybereplaced.
: 3. Ohio Senate Bill 221 and the Advanced Energy Standard requires FE to:
: 3. OhioSenateBill221andtheAdvancedEnergyStandardrequires FEto:
* achieve higher efficiency by reducing demand 22% by 2025,
achievehigherefficiencybyreducingdemand22%by2025, achieve12.5%generationfromrenewables by2025, achieve12.5%generationfromadvancedenergyby2025,whichmay includenewadvancednuclear,butacontinuationofDBwillnotqualify.
* achieve 12.5% generation from renewables by 2025,
: 4. DistributedGenerationwillqualifyforSB221credit.
* achieve 12.5% generation from advanced energy by 2025, which may include new advanced nuclear, but a continuation of DB will not qualify.
: 5. AlternativesourcesareveryattractiveinOhio:
: 4. Distributed Generation will qualify for SB 221 credit.
WindnearorinLakeErie(class3toclass6 betterthanTexas!)
: 5. Alternative sources are very attractive in Ohio:
SolarPV(costsaredecreasingrapidly;FEuseddata14yearsold!)
* Wind near or in Lake Erie (class 3 to class 6  better than Texas!)
* Solar PV (costs are decreasing rapidly; FE used data 14 years old!)
Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan                                        Page 1


What happens to the highly radioactive spent fuel rods?
DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page2 Whathappenstothehighly radioactivespentfuelrods?
* Expectation when Davis Besse was builta federal repository would be constructed for storing the high level radioactive components as needed for thousands of years.
* ExpectationwhenDavisBesse wasbuiltafederal repositorywouldbeconstructedforstoringthehighlevel radioactivecomponentsasneededforthousandsofyears.
* Yucca Mountainstill does not have an operating license and no funding was proposed in the federal 2011 budget.
* YuccaMountainstilldoesnothaveanoperatinglicense andnofundingwasproposedinthefederal2011budget.
* For 33 years, all highlevel radioactive components including fuel assemblies have been stored on site at Davis Besse. Initially in a cooling pond and then in aboveground containers.
* For33years,allhighlevelradioactivecomponents includingfuelassemblieshavebeenstoredonsiteatDavis Besse.Initiallyinacoolingpondandtheninaboveground containers.
No nuclear plant license extensions should be granted until a longterm storage facility is operating.
Nonuclearplantlicenseextensionsshouldbegranted untilalongtermstoragefacilityisoperating.
A troubling indicator: Where does the tritium in the Davis Besse ground water come from?
Atroublingindicator:Wheredoesthe tritiumintheDavisBesse ground watercomefrom?
From Appendix E: Davis Besse Environmental Report p. 2.32:
FromAppendixE:DavisBesse EnvironmentalReportp.2.32:
Another well, MW105A, which has been on a slow increasing trend since the spring of 2009, had a tritium level of 4,158 pCi/l. As a result, FENOC is pursuing a root cause approach to identify the source of the tritium in the wells. No tritium concentrations have been detected at or above the USEPA drinking water limit of 20,000 pCi/l (40 CFR 141.66).
Anotherwell,MW105A,whichhasbeenonaslow increasingtrendsincethespringof2009,hadatritiumlevel of4,158pCi/l.Asaresult,FENOCispursuingarootcause approachtoidentifythesourceofthetritiuminthewells.No tritiumconcentrationshavebeendetectedatorabovethe USEPAdrinkingwaterlimitof20,000pCi/l(40CFR141.66).
Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan                      Page 2


About tritium and its radioactivity:
DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page3 Abouttritiumanditsradioactivity:
* Tritium or hydrogen3 (1 proton and 2 neutrons) is not naturally occurring. It has a halflife of 12.3 years.
* Tritiumorhydrogen3(1protonand2neutrons)isnot naturallyoccurring.Ithasahalflifeof12.3years.
* Tritium is produced in nuclear reactors by neutron bombardment of Lithium6 and Boron10. [A small amount is produced in the upper atmosphere by cosmic rays.]
* Tritiumisproducedinnuclearreactorsbyneutron bombardmentofLithium6andBoron10.[Asmallamount isproducedintheupperatmospherebycosmicrays.]
* Tritium is radioactive and decays by emitting a high energy electron (beta particle) plus an antineutrino.
* Tritiumisradioactiveanddecaysbyemittingahighenergy electron(betaparticle)plusanantineutrino.
* The beta particle has an average energy of 5.7 kiloelectron volts. It will not penetrate the outermost skin layers but is very dangerous if inhaled as hydrogen (H2 or HT) or water vapor or swallowed as waternot H2O but as HTO.
* Thebetaparticlehasanaverageenergyof5.7kiloelectron volts.Itwillnotpenetratetheoutermostskinlayersbutis verydangerousifinhaledashydrogen(H2 orHT)orwater vapororswallowedaswaternotH2ObutasHTO.
Excellent alternatives exist to extending the license 20 years and their costs are declining
Excellentalternativesexisttoextendingthe license20yearsandtheircostsaredeclining
* The incident and accident record of Davis Besse and the uncharted territory of extending the life of any nuclear plant 20 years beyond the 40year design life of the original should stimulate FE to get serious about alternatives.
* TheincidentandaccidentrecordofDavisBesse andthe unchartedterritoryofextendingthelifeofanynuclearplant20 yearsbeyondthe40yeardesignlifeoftheoriginalshould stimulateFEtogetseriousaboutalternatives.
* The best alternatives for Ohio are (IMHO):
* ThebestalternativesforOhioare(IMHO):
: 1. Energy conservation
: 1. Energyconservation
: 2. Wind
: 2. Wind
: 3. Solar
: 3. Solar
* These are already mandated by the State of Ohio. FE is required to develop these alternatives anyway AND is allowed by Ohio law to pass the costs through to the ratepayers.
* ThesearealreadymandatedbytheStateofOhio.FEis requiredtodevelopthesealternativesanywayANDisallowed byOhiolawtopassthecoststhroughtotheratepayers.
Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan                      Page 3


Essential features of SB221 (passed in the spring of 2008)
DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page4 EssentialfeaturesofSB221 (passedinthespringof2008)
: 1. Alternative Energy Portfolio Standard (O.R.C. 4928.64.65)
: 1. AlternativeEnergyPortfolioStandard(O.R.C.4928.64.65) 25%electricitygenerationbyadvancedenergyby2025 12.5%byrenewables withsolarsetasideof0.5%
* 25% electricity generation by advanced energy by 2025
Remaining12.5%mayincludeadvancedenergysuchas:
* 12.5% by renewables with solar setaside of 0.5%
*Cleancoal(w/oCO2 emissions)
* Remaining 12.5% may include advanced energy such as:
*Advancednuclear(NRCGenerationIIItechnology)
* Clean coal (w/o CO2 emissions)
[GenIIIincorporatespassivesafetysystemsand isdesigned for60yearsofoperation]
* Advanced nuclear (NRC Generation III technology)
: 2. Netmetering(O.R.C.4928.67,4905.31,4928.01)
[Gen III incorporates passive safety systems and is designed for 60 years of operation]
: 3. EnergyEfficiencyStandard(O.R.C.4928.66) 22%reductionby2025throughenergyefficiency 7%peakdemandreductionby2018 Costsmaybepassedthroughtocustomers!
: 2. Net metering (O.R.C. 4928.67, 4905.31, 4928.01)
http://www.bricker.com/documents/publications/1533.pdf  
: 3. Energy Efficiency Standard (O.R.C. 4928.66)
* 22% reduction by 2025 through energy efficiency
* 7% peak demand reduction by 2018 Costs may be passed through to customers!
http://www.bricker.com/documents/publications/1533.pdf Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan                    Page 4


Lake Erie and the Lake Erie shore is a great resource for wind energy Map showing average wind power in Lake Erie better than Texas and the plain states http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps.html Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan        Page 5
DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page5 LakeErieandtheLakeErieshoreisa greatresourceforwindenergy MapshowingaveragewindpowerinLakeEriebetter thanTexasandtheplainstates http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps.html  


Ohio, and particularly NW Ohio, has excellent solar insolation wellsuited for photovoltaics (PV)
DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page6 Ohio,andparticularlyNWOhio,has excellentsolarinsolation wellsuited forphotovoltaics (PV)
Errors in the First Energy Environmental Report (Appendix E):
ErrorsintheFirstEnergyEnvironmentalReport(AppendixE):
* must consider fullsky insolation, not just direct solar
* mustconsiderfullskyinsolation,notjustdirectsolar
* must use current costs and cost projections for PV, not data from 1998!
* mustusecurrentcostsandcostprojectionsforPV,not datafrom1998!
(direct sunlight only)
(directsunlightonly)
Toledo/Orlando = 75%
Toledo/Orlando=75%
Toledo/SanDiego = 60% (direct radiation)       Toledo/Mojave = 45%
Toledo/SanDiego =60%(directradiation)
http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan                            Page 6
Toledo/Mojave=45%
http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html  


PV Energy kWh/kW-yr 2
DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page7 PV Energy kWh/kW-yr 2
Toledo/Orlando = 86%                                         Toledo/San Diego = 79% (full sky radiation)
Toledo/Orlando=86%
Electricity Price Convergence - 5 to 6 Years Solar PV industry - longterm outlook 0.30 cSi            Electricity from solar PV is                                                                        Demand Si (2x)                          becoming cheaper                New technology wildcard                              Potential for explosive 0.25       CIGS Grid cost, solar PV price, ($/kWh) growth in demand upon convergence Supply CdTe 6%
Toledo/SanDiego=79%(fullskyradiation)
0.20                                                                                                Grid cost 5%
StephenORourke(212)2508670 SolarPVindustry-longtermoutlook 6%
convergence 4%
5%
0.15 US  Average price of electricity in 2009 est:
4%
9.5 cents/kWh Source: Deutsche Bank estimates 0.10 Periodic oversupply is                              c-Si (ave)       c-Si (hi/lo)         c-Si (hi CE) inevitable                                          a-Si (um)         CIGS                 CdTe Supply           Demand 0.05 2009          2010            2011        2012          2013        2014    2015        2016        2017          2018            2019        2020 Definitions:
0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Grid cost, solar PV price, ($/kWh) c-Si (ave) c-Si (hi/lo) c-Si (hi CE) a-Si (um)
First Generation PV: bulk crystalline silicon (monocrystalline, multicrystalline)
CIGS CdTe Supply Demand cSi CIGS Si(2x)
Second Generation PV: Inorganic thin films (CdTe, aSi:H, aSiGe, ncSi:H, CIGS)
CdTe US Averagepriceof electricityin2009est:
Third Generation PV: nanostructures, organic/hybrid, advanced concepts Stephen ORourke (212) 2508670 Source: Deutsche Bank 2009 http://www.slideshare.net/gwsolar/pv-status-and-pathways-stephen-orourke Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan                                                                                                                                                                Page 7
9.5 cents/kWh ElectricityfromsolarPVis becomingcheaper Gridcost convergence Periodicoversupplyis inevitable Potentialforexplosive growthindemandupon convergence Newtechnology wildcard Supply Demand Source:DeutscheBankestimates ElectricityPriceConvergence-5to6Years Source:DeutscheBank2009 Definitions:
FirstGenerationPV:bulkcrystallinesilicon(monocrystalline,multicrystalline)
SecondGenerationPV:Inorganicthinfilms(CdTe,aSi:H,aSiGe,ncSi:H,CIGS)
ThirdGenerationPV:nanostructures,organic/hybrid,advancedconcepts http://www.slideshare.net/gwsolar/pv-status-and-pathways-stephen-orourke  


Stimulating alternatives creates Ohio jobs
DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page8 StimulatingalternativescreatesOhio jobs
* Energy conservation / efficiency is a big job creator and saves the consumer money.
* Energyconservation/efficiencyisabigjobcreatorand savestheconsumermoney.
* Ohio has a large number of manufacturers that are suppliers for wind turbines.
* Ohiohasalargenumberofmanufacturersthataresuppliers forwindturbines.
* Maintenance of wind turbines creates many jobs.
* Maintenance ofwindturbinescreatesmanyjobs.
* In 2009 the largest PV manufacturer in the world was First Solar with all of its U.S. manufacturing in Perrysburg.
* In2009thelargestPVmanufacturerintheworldwasFirst SolarwithallofitsU.S.manufacturing inPerrysburg.
* Several other PV manufacturers are starting up in Ohio.
* SeveralotherPVmanufacturersarestartingupinOhio.
* PV design and installation creates many jobs.
* PVdesignandinstallationcreatesmanyjobs.
References http://www.bricker.com/documents/publications/1533.pdf http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps.html http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html http://www.slideshare.net/gwsolar/pvstatusandpathwaysstephenorourke Presentation by:   Alvin Compaan 9135 W. Bancroft St.
References http://www.bricker.com/documents/publications/1533.pdf http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps.html http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html http://www.slideshare.net/gwsolar/pvstatusandpathwaysstephenorourke Presentationby:
Holland, OH 43528 December 18, 2010 Mobile: 4192652641 Davis Besse Community Hearing 12/18/2010Compaan                                  Page 8}}
AlvinCompaan 9135W.BancroftSt.
Holland,OH43528 December18,2010 Mobile:4192652641}}

Latest revision as of 00:52, 14 January 2025

Exhibit 50-The Case for Replacing Davis Besse with Efficiency Improvements and Renewable Energy Sources
ML103620049
Person / Time
Site: Davis Besse Cleveland Electric icon.png
Issue date: 12/18/2010
From: Compaan A
Univ of Toledo
To:
Atomic Safety and Licensing Board Panel
SECY RAS
Shared Package
ML103620048 List:
References
License Renewal 2, RAS 19320, 50-346-LR
Download: ML103620049 (8)
v • d • e


Text

DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page1 The following eight pages reproduce the slides that were used in the presentation by A. Compaan on 12/18/2010. Minor formatting changes were made and references moved beneath the related slides.

ThecaseforreplacingDavisBesse with efficiencyimprovementsandrenewable energysources AlvinD.Compaan DistinguishedUniversityProfessorofPhysics,Emeritus TheUniversityofToledo DavisBesse relicensingcommunityhearing St.MarksEpiscopalChurch,Toledo,OH December18,2010 Overviewofpresentation

1. HistoryofDavisBesse indicatesthat20moreyearsofoperationwillseriously endangerthesurroundingcommunities.
2. DavisBesse providesonly8.3%ofFirstEnergysbaseloadgenerationandcan readilybereplaced.
3. OhioSenateBill221andtheAdvancedEnergyStandardrequires FEto:

achievehigherefficiencybyreducingdemand22%by2025, achieve12.5%generationfromrenewables by2025, achieve12.5%generationfromadvancedenergyby2025,whichmay includenewadvancednuclear,butacontinuationofDBwillnotqualify.

4. DistributedGenerationwillqualifyforSB221credit.
5. AlternativesourcesareveryattractiveinOhio:

WindnearorinLakeErie(class3toclass6 betterthanTexas!)

SolarPV(costsaredecreasingrapidly;FEuseddata14yearsold!)

DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page2 Whathappenstothehighly radioactivespentfuelrods?

  • ExpectationwhenDavisBesse wasbuiltafederal repositorywouldbeconstructedforstoringthehighlevel radioactivecomponentsasneededforthousandsofyears.
  • YuccaMountainstilldoesnothaveanoperatinglicense andnofundingwasproposedinthefederal2011budget.
  • For33years,allhighlevelradioactivecomponents includingfuelassemblieshavebeenstoredonsiteatDavis Besse.Initiallyinacoolingpondandtheninaboveground containers.

Nonuclearplantlicenseextensionsshouldbegranted untilalongtermstoragefacilityisoperating.

Atroublingindicator:Wheredoesthe tritiumintheDavisBesse ground watercomefrom?

FromAppendixE:DavisBesse EnvironmentalReportp.2.32:

Anotherwell,MW105A,whichhasbeenonaslow increasingtrendsincethespringof2009,hadatritiumlevel of4,158pCi/l.Asaresult,FENOCispursuingarootcause approachtoidentifythesourceofthetritiuminthewells.No tritiumconcentrationshavebeendetectedatorabovethe USEPAdrinkingwaterlimitof20,000pCi/l(40CFR141.66).

DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page3 Abouttritiumanditsradioactivity:

  • Tritiumorhydrogen3(1protonand2neutrons)isnot naturallyoccurring.Ithasahalflifeof12.3years.
  • Tritiumisproducedinnuclearreactorsbyneutron bombardmentofLithium6andBoron10.[Asmallamount isproducedintheupperatmospherebycosmicrays.]
  • Tritiumisradioactiveanddecaysbyemittingahighenergy electron(betaparticle)plusanantineutrino.
  • Thebetaparticlehasanaverageenergyof5.7kiloelectron volts.Itwillnotpenetratetheoutermostskinlayersbutis verydangerousifinhaledashydrogen(H2 orHT)orwater vapororswallowedaswaternotH2ObutasHTO.

Excellentalternativesexisttoextendingthe license20yearsandtheircostsaredeclining

  • TheincidentandaccidentrecordofDavisBesse andthe unchartedterritoryofextendingthelifeofanynuclearplant20 yearsbeyondthe40yeardesignlifeoftheoriginalshould stimulateFEtogetseriousaboutalternatives.
  • ThebestalternativesforOhioare(IMHO):
1. Energyconservation
2. Wind
3. Solar
  • ThesearealreadymandatedbytheStateofOhio.FEis requiredtodevelopthesealternativesanywayANDisallowed byOhiolawtopassthecoststhroughtotheratepayers.

DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page4 EssentialfeaturesofSB221 (passedinthespringof2008)

1. AlternativeEnergyPortfolioStandard(O.R.C.4928.64.65) 25%electricitygenerationbyadvancedenergyby2025 12.5%byrenewables withsolarsetasideof0.5%

Remaining12.5%mayincludeadvancedenergysuchas:

  • Cleancoal(w/oCO2 emissions)
  • Advancednuclear(NRCGenerationIIItechnology)

[GenIIIincorporatespassivesafetysystemsand isdesigned for60yearsofoperation]

2. Netmetering(O.R.C.4928.67,4905.31,4928.01)
3. EnergyEfficiencyStandard(O.R.C.4928.66) 22%reductionby2025throughenergyefficiency 7%peakdemandreductionby2018 Costsmaybepassedthroughtocustomers!

http://www.bricker.com/documents/publications/1533.pdf

DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page5 LakeErieandtheLakeErieshoreisa greatresourceforwindenergy MapshowingaveragewindpowerinLakeEriebetter thanTexasandtheplainstates http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps.html

DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page6 Ohio,andparticularlyNWOhio,has excellentsolarinsolation wellsuited forphotovoltaics (PV)

ErrorsintheFirstEnergyEnvironmentalReport(AppendixE):

  • mustconsiderfullskyinsolation,notjustdirectsolar
  • mustusecurrentcostsandcostprojectionsforPV,not datafrom1998!

(directsunlightonly)

Toledo/Orlando=75%

Toledo/SanDiego =60%(directradiation)

Toledo/Mojave=45%

http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html

DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page7 PV Energy kWh/kW-yr 2

Toledo/Orlando=86%

Toledo/SanDiego=79%(fullskyradiation)

StephenORourke(212)2508670 SolarPVindustry-longtermoutlook 6%

5%

4%

0.05 0.10 0.15 0.20 0.25 0.30 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Grid cost, solar PV price, ($/kWh) c-Si (ave) c-Si (hi/lo) c-Si (hi CE) a-Si (um)

CIGS CdTe Supply Demand cSi CIGS Si(2x)

CdTe US Averagepriceof electricityin2009est:

9.5 cents/kWh ElectricityfromsolarPVis becomingcheaper Gridcost convergence Periodicoversupplyis inevitable Potentialforexplosive growthindemandupon convergence Newtechnology wildcard Supply Demand Source:DeutscheBankestimates ElectricityPriceConvergence-5to6Years Source:DeutscheBank2009 Definitions:

FirstGenerationPV:bulkcrystallinesilicon(monocrystalline,multicrystalline)

SecondGenerationPV:Inorganicthinfilms(CdTe,aSi:H,aSiGe,ncSi:H,CIGS)

ThirdGenerationPV:nanostructures,organic/hybrid,advancedconcepts http://www.slideshare.net/gwsolar/pv-status-and-pathways-stephen-orourke

DavisBesseCommunityHearing12/18/2010Compaan Page8 StimulatingalternativescreatesOhio jobs

  • Energyconservation/efficiencyisabigjobcreatorand savestheconsumermoney.
  • Ohiohasalargenumberofmanufacturersthataresuppliers forwindturbines.
  • Maintenance ofwindturbinescreatesmanyjobs.
  • In2009thelargestPVmanufacturerintheworldwasFirst SolarwithallofitsU.S.manufacturing inPerrysburg.
  • SeveralotherPVmanufacturersarestartingupinOhio.
  • PVdesignandinstallationcreatesmanyjobs.

References http://www.bricker.com/documents/publications/1533.pdf http://rredc.nrel.gov/wind/pubs/atlas/maps.html http://www.nrel.gov/gis/solar.html http://www.slideshare.net/gwsolar/pvstatusandpathwaysstephenorourke Presentationby:

AlvinCompaan 9135W.BancroftSt.

Holland,OH43528 December18,2010 Mobile:4192652641

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