View source for NRC-16-0042, Response to NRC Request for Additional Information Regarding Environmental Review of the License Renewal Application, Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives Sensitivity Analysis

{{Adams
| number = ML16201A293
| issue date = 07/19/2016
| title = Response to NRC Request for Additional Information Regarding Environmental Review of the License Renewal Application, Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives Sensitivity Analysis
| author name = Polson K
| author affiliation = DTE Energy
| addressee name = 
| addressee affiliation = NRC/Document Control Desk, NRC/NRR
| docket = 05000341
| license number = NPF-043
| contact person = 
| case reference number = NRC-16-0042
| document type = Letter type:NRC, Response to Request for Additional Information (RAI)
| page count = 11
| project = 
| stage = Response to RAI
}}

=Text=
{{#Wiki_filter:Keith J. Poison Site Vice President DTE Energy Company 6400 N. Dixie Highway, Newport, MI 48166 Tel: 734.586.4849     Fax: 734.586.4172 Email: poisonk@dteenergy.com
                                                                    - DTE Energy-10 CFR 54 July 19, 2016 NRC-16-0042 U. S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Attention: Document Control Desk Washington D C       20555-0001

==References:==
: 1) Fermi 2 NRC Docket No. 50-341 NRC License No. NPF-43
: 2) DTE Electric Company Letter to NRC, "Fermi 2 License Renewal Application," NRC-14-0028, dated April 24, 2014 (ML14121A554)
: 3) Commissioner Memorandum and Order, CLI-16-07, "In the Matter of Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc. (Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3)," dated May 4, 2016 (ML16125A150)
: 4) NRC Letter to DTE Electric Company, "Request for Additional Information on Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives for the Review of the Fermi 2 Nuclear Power Plant, License Renewal Application Environmental Review," dated July 7, 2016 (ML16188A192)
: 5) Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Plants, NUREG-1437, Supplement 56 Regarding Fermi 2 Nuclear Power Plant, dated October 2015 (ML15300A073)

==Subject:==
Response to NRC Request for Additional Information for the Environmental Review of the Fermi 2 License Renewal Application -
Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives Sensitivity Analysis In Reference 2, DTE Electric Company (DTE) submitted the License Renewal Application (LRA) for Fermi 2, which included a Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis as part of the Environmental Report (LRA Appendix E). In a recent decision (CLI-16-07), the Commission directed the NRC

USNRC NRC-16-0042 Page 2 staff to supplement the SAMA analysis performed for the Indian Point Units 2 and 3 LRA with sensitivity analyses for two factors used in the SAMA analysis (Reference 3). Based on this direction, the NRC staff issued a request for additional information (RAI) to DTE (Reference 4). The DTE response to the RAI is provided in the enclosure to this letter. The RAI response includes the results of a sensitivity analysis for the same two input parameters addressed by the Commission in CLI-16-07. The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the SAMA analysis previously documented in the LRA and in the draft Supplemental Environmental Impact Statement (Reference 5) for Fermi 2 is bounding.
No new commitments are being made in this submittal.
Should you have any questions or require additional information, please contact Lynne Goodman at 734-586-1205.
I declare under penalty of perjury that the foregoing is true and correct.
Executed on July 19, 2016 Keith Polson Site Vice President Nuclear Generation

==Enclosure:==
DTE Response to NRC Request for Additional Information for the Environmental Review of the Fermi 2 License Renewal Application -
Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives Sensitivity Analysis cc: NRC Project Manager NRC License Renewal Environmental Project Manager NRC Resident Office Reactor Projects Chief, Branch 5, Region III Regional Administrator, Region III Michigan Public Service Commission, Regulated Energy Division (kindschl@michigan.gov)

Enclosure to NRC-16-0042 Fermi 2 NRC Docket No. 50-341 Operating License No. NPF-43 DTE Response to NRC Request for Additional Information for the Environmental Review of the Fermi 2 License Renewal Application -
Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives Sensitivity Analysis

Enclosure to NRC-16-0042 Page 1 Request for Additional Information (RAI):
On May 4, 2016, the Commission issued a decision (CLI-16-07) in the Indian Point license renewal proceeding, in which it directed the Staff to supplement the Indian Point Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives (SAMA) analysis with sensitivity analyses. Specifically, the Commission held that documentation was lacking for two inputs (TIMDEC and CDNFRM) used in the MACCS computer analyses, and that uncertainties in those input values could potentially affect the SAMA analysis cost-benefit conclusions. The Commission therefore directed the Staff to perform additional sensitivity analyses.
The two inputs (TIMDEC and CDNFRM) are commonly used in the SAMA analyses performed for license renewal applications (LRAs). These two input values were generally based on the values provided in NUREG-1150, Severe Accident Risks: An Assessment for Five U.S. Nuclear Power Plants and NUREG/CR-3673, Economic Risks of Nuclear Power Reactor Accidents.
The TIMDEC input value defines the time required for completing decontamination to a specified degree. The CDNFRM input parameter defines the cost (on a per person basis) of decontaminating non-farmland by a specified decontamination factor. The CDNFRM values used in NUREG-1150 ($3,000/person for decontamination factor of 3 and $8,000/person for decontamination factor of 15) stem from decontamination cost estimates provided in NUREG/CR-3673, the same 1984 economic risk study referenced in support of the decontamination time inputs. These decontamination cost inputs are commonly escalated to account for inflation.
The NRC Staff believes the Commissions decision in CLI-16-07 may be applicable to the SAMA analysis performed for Fermi 2, inasmuch as that analysis may have also relied upon the NUREG-1150 values for TIMDEC and CDNFRM. We therefore request that DTE Electric Company (DTE) either justify why CLI-16-07 does not apply to the SAMA analysis performed for Fermi 2 or supplement the SAMA analysis with sensitivity analyses for the CDNFRM and TIMDEC values.
DTE is requested to review the input values specified in CLI-16-07 for the Indian Point LRA, and (1) to apply the maximum values specified by the Commission (one year (365 days) for TIMDEC and $100,000 for the CDNFRM values for the decontamination factor of 15) or, in the alternative, (2) to explain, with sufficient justification, its rationale for choosing any other value(s) for its sensitivity analyses. In any event, DTE should execute sensitivity analyses for the release categories modeled that exceed 1015 Becquerels of Cs-137 released. DTE is requested to evaluate how these sensitivity analyses may affect its identification of potentially cost-beneficial SAMAs. Finally, upon completing its sensitivity analysis, DTE is requested to submit the spreadsheet (or equivalent table if another method is used) that conveys the population dose and off-site economic cost for each release category and integrates the results into a Population Dose Risk and an Offsite Economic Cost Risk for Fermi 2.

Enclosure to NRC-16-0042 Page 2

===Response===

==Background:==

As discussed in the RAI, the NRC Commissioners issued a Memorandum and Order (CLI-16-07) in Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc. (Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3) on May 4, 2016 (Reference 1-1). The Commissioners directed the NRC staff to supplement Indian Points SAMA analysis with a sensitivity analysis using values of 365 days for the TIMDEC input parameter and $100,000/person for heavy decontamination for the CDNFRM input parameter in the MACCS2 (MELCOR Accident Consequence Code) code for at least the four most severe accident categories modeled. The RAI issued to Fermi 2 requests that DTE apply the maximum values specified by the Commission (one year (365 days) for TIMDEC and $100,000/person for the CDNFRM values for the decontamination factor of 15) for the release categories modeled that exceed 1015 Becquerels of Cs-137 released or, in the alternative, explain the rationale for choosing other values for the sensitivity analyses.
DTE has performed a SAMA sensitivity analysis for Fermi 2 using the maximum input parameter values specified by the Commission in CLI-16-07 and by the NRC Staff in the RAI.
The results of that analysis are described and summarized below.
The list of references (1-1, 1-2, 1-3, 1-4 and 1-5) used in this Enclosure to NRC-16-0042 is located and described on page 8.
Decontamination Sensitivity Analysis:
A sensitivity analysis to determine the Modified Maximum Averted Cost Risk (MMACR) using the highest values allowed in WinMACCS for inputs TIMDEC and CDNFRM, 365 days and
$100,000/person, respectively, for the decontamination factor of 15 (heavy decontamination),
was performed as specified in CLI-16-07 and in the RAI. All other inputs into the WinMACCS code were unchanged. The evaluation used the higher TIMDEC and CDNFRM input parameter values in the same sensitivity analysis, so that the effects of increasing both values could be evaluated concurrently.
The RAI indicates that the severe accident categories that exceed 1015 Becquerels of Cs-137 released should be considered. The total activity of Cs-137 in the WinMACCS models is 5.42 x 1017 Becquerels. Therefore, a Cesium release fraction greater than 1.85 x 10-3 results in a release exceeding the 1015 Becquerels criterion. The following severe accident categories have a Cesium release fraction exceeding 1.85 x 10-3 and were therefore included in the sensitivity analysis:
    -   H/E-BOC (High Magnitude/Early Release, Accident Class V Break Outside Containment)
    -   H/E (High Magnitude/Early Release, All H/E releases other than H/E-BOC)
    -   H/I (High Magnitude/Intermediate Release)
    -   H/L (High Magnitude/Late Release)

Enclosure to NRC-16-0042 Page 3
    -   M/E (Moderate Magnitude/Early Release)
    -   M/I (Moderate Magnitude/Intermediate Release)
    -   L/I (Low Magnitude/Intermediate Release)
After determining the revised population dose and economic costs using the maximum values for CDNFRM and TIMDEC for the seven severe accident categories above, a MMACR was calculated for both a 7% and 3% discount rate, as per NUREG/BR-0184.
The revised MMACR calculated during this sensitivity analysis was then compared to a 95th percentile MMACR. The 95th percentile MMACR was obtained by multiplying the base case MMACR by a multiplier of 2.5. The multiplier of 2.5 for the 95th percentile sensitivity case was discussed in Section D.2.4 of Reference 1-3 and in Section F.6.2 of the draft supplemental environmental impact statement for Fermi 2 (Reference 1-5).
Decontamination Sensitivity Analysis Results:
The results of this decontamination sensitivity analysis are shown in Tables 2 and 3 on the following pages.
Table 1 shows the base case from the SAMA evaluation in the LRA (Reference 1-3, Table D.1-24). Table 2 shows the results of this decontamination sensitivity analysis, including the population dose risk and the economic risk requested by the RAI. Table 3 compares the MMACR calculated for the base case and the decontamination sensitivity analysis, based on the information in Tables 1 and 2.
The results show that the MMACR for this sensitivity analysis, which used CDNFRM and TIMDEC set to their maximum allowable values, for heavy decontamination is $4,689,344/year for a 7% discount rate. This MMACR is bounded by the 95th percentile of the base case MMACR in the LRA (2.5 x $3,369,832/year = $8,424,580/year). Likewise, the sensitivity analysis MMACR calculated with maximum values for CDNFRM and TIMDEC using a 3%
discount rate is $6,530,819, which is also bounded by the 95th percentile case.

Enclosure to NRC-16-0042 Page 4 Table 1: Base Case Population    Economic                  Population Economic Likelihood Release    Dose           Cost                   Dose Risk     Risk Category  (person-                                (person-($)      (events/yr)               ($/yr) rem)                                   rem/yr)
H/E - BOC 2.18E+07      3.03E+10      5.93E-08    1.29E+00   1.80E+03 H/E    8.10E+06      2.80E+10      3.13E-07    2.54E+00   8.77E+03 H/I    9.52E+06      5.26E+10      7.20E-08     6.86E-01  3.79E+03 H/L    8.98E+06      1.67E+10      2.46E-10     2.21E-03  4.11E+00 M/E    2.48E+06      8.39E+09      6.17E-08     1.53E-01  5.18E+02 M/I    2.76E+06      6.10E+09      3.71E-08     1.03E-01  2.27E+02 L/E    2.26E+05      2.26E+07      4.36E-08     9.85E-03  9.85E-01 L/I    2.14E+06      8.25E+09      5.46E-08     1.17E-01  4.51E+02 LL/E    1.31E+04      3.81E+05      5.02E-10     6.57E-06  1.91E-04 LL/I   1.29E+05      4.05E+06      7.75E-08     1.00E-02  3.14E-01 CI    6.46E+01      1.96E+00      7.83E-07     5.06E-05  1.54E-06 Total       1.50E-06    4.91E+00   1.56E+04 Table 2: Decontamination Sensitivity Population    Economic                  Population Economic Likelihood Release    Dose           Cost                   Dose Risk     Risk Category  (person-                                (person-($)      (events/yr)               ($/yr) rem)                                   rem/yr)
H/E - BOC 2.20E+07      5.32E+10      5.93E-08    1.30E+00   3.15E+03 H/E    8.36E+06      4.83E+10      3.13E-07    2.62E+00   1.51E+04 H/I    9.16E+06      8.41E+10      7.20E-08     6.60E-01  6.06E+03 H/L    9.07E+06      3.15E+10      2.46E-10     2.23E-03  7.75E+00 M/E    2.48E+06      1.65E+10      6.17E-08     1.53E-01  1.02E+03 M/I    2.76E+06      7.80E+09      3.71E-08     1.02E-01  2.89E+02 L/E    2.26E+05      2.26E+07      4.36E-08     9.85E-03  9.85E-01 L/I    2.14E+06      1.69E+10      5.46E-08     1.17E-01  9.23E+02 LL/E    1.31E+04      3.81E+05      5.02E-10     6.58E-06  1.91E-04 LL/I   1.29E+05      4.05E+06      7.75E-08     1.00E-02  3.14E-01 CI    6.46E+01      1.96E+00      7.83E-07     5.06E-05  1.53E-06 Total       1.50E-06    4.98E+00   2.66E+04

Enclosure to NRC-16-0042 Page 5 Table 3: MMACR Results Decontamination Base Case Results Sensitivity 3%                         3%
7% Real                 7% Real Discount                   Discount Discount                Discount Rate                      Rate Rate                    Rate Cost                 Sensitivity                Sensitivity Off-Site Exposure Cost   105,676      147,667    107,095        149,650 (WPHA) ($/yr)
Off-Site Economic Cost    167,403      233,921    285,939        399,559 (WEA) ($/yr)
On-Site Exposure Cost     572          930        572             930 (WO) ($/yr)
On-Site Cleanup Cost (WCD)     17,450      29,293      17,450         29,293
($/yr)
Replacement Power Cost     15,247      14,278      15,247         14,278 (WRP) ($/yr)
Maximum Averted Cost 306,348      426,090    426,304        593,711 Risk (MACR)
($/yr)
External Event 11                      11 Multiplier Modified MACR 3,369,832    4,686,991  4,689,344      6,530,819 (MMACR)
($/yr)

Enclosure to NRC-16-0042 Page 6 Additional Decontamination Sensitivity Analysis:
An additional decontamination sensitivity calculation was performed using the same method that resulted in Table 2-1, Fermi 2 SAMA Dose Risk and Cost Risk with Separate Class IIA H/E Release Category, in Reference 1-4, where release category H/E was further subdivided into accident classes IIA and Other. The frequencies for categories H/E-IIA and H/E-Other from Table 2-1 of Reference 1-4 were used. For release category H/E-IIA the population dose and economic cost values for category H/E-BOC from Table 2 above were used. For release category H/E-Other the population dose and economic cost for category H/E in Table 2 above were used.
A revised MMACR was calculated using the population dose and economic costs from the sensitivity analysis performed above with the higher CDNFRM and TIMDEC values specified in CLI-16-07 and in the RAI.
Additional Decontamination Sensitivity Analysis Results:
Table 4 below and Table 5 on the following page show the results for this additional decontamination sensitivity analysis.
As shown in Table 5, when Table 4 data is used as input, the MMACR increases, but remains well within the 95th percentile sensitivity MMACR of $8,424,580/year.
Table 4: Decontamination/RAI Sensitivity Population    Economic                Population Economic Likelihood Release     Dose           Cost                 Dose Risk     Risk Category    (person-                               (person-($)     (events/yr)              ($/yr) rem)                                  rem/yr)
H/E - BOC   2.20E+07      5.32E+10     5.93E-08    1.30E+00  3.15E+03 H/E - IIA  2.20E+07      5.32E+10     5.63E-08    1.24E+00  3.00E+03 H/E -
8.36E+06      4.83E+10     2.60E-07    2.17E+00  1.26E+04 Other H/I     9.16E+06      8.41E+10     7.20E-08    6.60E-01  6.06E+03 H/L      9.07E+06      3.15E+10     2.46E-10    2.23E-03  7.75E+00 M/E      2.48E+06      1.65E+10     6.17E-08    1.53E-01  1.02E+03 M/I     2.76E+06      7.80E+09     3.71E-08    1.02E-01  2.89E+02 L/E     2.26E+05      2.26E+07     4.36E-08    9.85E-03  9.85E-01 L/I     2.14E+06      1.69E+10     5.46E-08    1.17E-01  9.23E+02 LL/E     1.31E+04      3.81E+05     5.02E-10    6.58E-06  1.91E-04 LL/I     1.29E+05      4.05E+06     7.75E-08    1.00E-02  3.14E-01 CI      6.46E+01      1.96E+00     7.83E-07    5.06E-05  1.53E-06 Total      1.51E-06    5.77E+00  2.70E+04

Enclosure to NRC-16-0042 Page 7 Table 5: MMACR Results Decontamination Decontamination Base Case Results                              Sensitivity with RAI Sensitivity Adjustment 3%                       3%                       3%
7% Real                 7% Real                  7% Real Discount                 Discount                  Discount Discount               Discount                 Discount Rate                    Rate                      Rate Rate                    Rate                     Rate Cost                    Sensitivity              Sensitivity               Sensitivity Off-Site Exposure Cost 105,676      147,667    107,095      149,650     124,219       173,579 (WPHA) ($/yr)
Off-Site Economic 167,403      233,921    285,939      399,559     290,623       406,105 Cost (WEA) ($/yr)
On-Site Exposure Cost 572          930        572           930        572           930 (WO) ($/yr)
On-Site Cleanup Cost 17,450      29,293      17,450       29,293      17,450        29,293 (WCD) ($/yr)
Replacement Power 15,247      14,278      15,247       14,278      15,247        14,278 Cost (WRP) ($/yr)
Maximum Averted Cost Risk (MACR)      306,348      426,090    426,304      593,711     448,113       624,186
($/yr)
External Event 11                      11                        11 Multiplier Modified MACR 3,369,832    4,686,991  4,689,344    6,530,819   4,929,241     6,866,041 (MMACR) ($/yr)

==
Conclusion:==

As summarized in Table 6 below, the values for MMACR, which is the modified maximum averted cost risk a SAMA could prevent, calculated in these decontamination sensitivity analyses were bounded in all cases by the MMACR multiplied by the 2.5 factor (i.e. the 95th percentile case) in the SAMA analysis previously provided in the LRA and considered in the draft supplemental environmental impact statement (Reference 1-5).
Additionally, the maximum increase in the benefit of an individual SAMA is bounded by the 95th percentile case. The maximum increased value of an individual SAMA could be no greater than the largest ratio of the population dose risk or economic risk of the decontamination sensitivity case results in Table 2 or Table 4 to the population dose risk or economic risk in Table 1 for any release category. The maximum ratio is approximately two. This ratio is less than the factor of 2.5 used in the LRA for the 95th percentile sensitivity case.

Enclosure to NRC-16-0042 Page 8 Therefore, the results of the 95th percentile evaluation of potential SAMAs previously provided in the LRA bounds the results of the decontamination sensitivity analyses. While the use of the higher input factors increases the MMACR, the results of the decontamination sensitivity analyses remain well within the 95th percentile MMACR.
Table 6: MMACR Results Base Case; Decontamination 95th            Decontamination Base Case Results                                                  Sensitivity with RAI Percentile      Sensitivity Adjustment Sensitivity 3%                                        3%                      3%
7% Real                    7% Real         7% Real                 7% Real Discount                                  Discount                Discount Discount                   Discount        Discount                Discount Rate                                      Rate                    Rate Rate                       Rate            Rate                    Rate Cost                        Sensitivity                               Sensitivity             Sensitivity Modified MACR 3,369,832    4,686,991      8,424,580      4,689,344   6,530,819   4,929,241   6,866,041 (MMACR)
($/yr)

==References:==

1-1 Commissioner Memorandum and Order, CLI-16-07, In the Matter of Entergy Nuclear Operations, Inc. (Indian Point Nuclear Generating Units 2 and 3), dated May 4, 2016 (ML16125A150).
1-2 DTE Electric Company Letter to NRC, Fermi 2 License Renewal Application, NRC-14-0028, dated April 24, 2014 (ML14121A554).
1-3 Attachment D, Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives, to Appendix E, Applicants Environmental Report, of the Fermi 2 License Renewal Application.
1-4 DTE Electric Company Letter to NRC, Response to NRC Request for Additional Information for the Environmental Review of the Fermi 2 License Renewal Application -
Severe Accident Mitigation Alternatives Set 3, NRC-15-0045, dated May 8, 2015 (ML15141A163).
1-5 Draft Generic Environmental Impact Statement for License Renewal of Nuclear Plants, NUREG-1437, Supplement 56 Regarding Fermi 2 Nuclear Power Plant, dated October 2015 (ML15300A073)}}